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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458

    Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.

    Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Scott_P said:
    We had next to no control over our own laws. Now, if reports are accurate, we will get that for the 79% (and growing) of the economy consisting of services.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    DeClare said:

    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.

    Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.
    They'll just spin it out, first every member will be given a large tome to digest, then they'll be a delay of a few days, then if the vote rejects the deal, she'll say it's not binding. By then it'll be nearly Christmas and the house will go into recess.

    Then in the new year, they'll call a vote of no confidence, which will be delayed by a few days, then if it's passed the PM will go into talks to try to get it reversed which will last the full two weeks and if it's not reversed, she'll resign, then a new caretaker PM will take her place and try to say that the VONC doesn't still apply, then the speaker will tell him it does and after a couple more days delay a long campaign GE will be called.

    After all that, polling day will be at the end of Feb or in March.
    By which time the pound will be worth about as much as the Moldovan Leu.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
    Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?
    Left No 10 already.
    Like Heseltine in 1986 or all smiles ?
    All smiles.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,074
    ydoethur said:

    Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.

    Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
    I think mwjfrome17 is thinking more about WW1 generals rather than leaders..
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,372
    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    AndyJS said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remover a long time ago.
    Depends on whether the DUP continue to support the government.
    The DUP I believe when they make threats. Right or wrong, and with a focus on NI politics, I believe their Westminster positioning is genuine.
  • I have an immovable romantic holiday break scheduled from the 14th of February through to 18th of February in Edinburgh.

    Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,875

    Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.

    Whilst it’s refreshing not comparing JRM to a certain WW2 villain, maybe pinning WW1 on him is a little much.

    JRM is simply defending his daddy’s honour.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    kle4 said:

    Theo said:

    Interesting to see the usual suspects trying to get all their spin in early when they haven't got the foggiest clue what is in the deal.

    What is most interesting to me is what the pro-European Labour MPs do. Corbyn, as a eurosceptic,, obviously has his interests aligned. He wants a crash out Brexit because he wants to leave, wants an opportunity to bring back state aid and he wants a crash to become PM. The rest of the Labour Party have a choice: on the one side they will get to power (albeit in a way that cements the hard left in power), on the other they will destroy any goodwill the EU has towards the UK and cause unnecessary harm to the people they went into politics to serve.

    Sounds like an easy choice, but no doubt it does not appear that way to them.
    You would think so but it appears most of the Labour Party have been nerve stapled since the election, with no free will or principles of their own.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,372
    edited November 2018

    I have an immovable romantic holiday break scheduled from the 14th of February through to 18th of February in Edinburgh.

    Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.

    A Valentines Day (Conservative) Massacre?

    She's actually daft enough to do it as well....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    ydoethur said:

    Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.

    Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
    His suits are bit like some of Kaiser Wilhem's though!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is?.
    He thinks he's intelligent.

    He also assumes nobody has seen the lies on his CV.

    He thought of himself as a potential PM.

    Does that sort of answer your question?
    He’s the poster child for Brexit. A professional liar and charmless serial incompetent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096

    kle4 said:

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    +1

    Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.

    Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".

    A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.

    This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
    Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
    UK Establishment and EU Establishment.
    Which don't always succeed. Nothing has changed here - there's No political benefit for labour to back this and too many Tory rebels of remain and leave to pass any agreement.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    You did , I thought the same but was starting to have some doubts
    However glad that it looks like a deal has been done.

  • ydoethur said:

    Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.

    Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
    It was more his drumming up of Nationalist sentiment, appealing to the mob mentality I was getting at.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
    Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
    Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?

    He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    GIN1138 said:

    I have an immovable romantic holiday break scheduled from the 14th of February through to 18th of February in Edinburgh.

    Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.

    A Valentines Day (Conservative) Massacre?

    You actually daft enough to do it as well....
    And Feb 14th is indeed a Thursday........
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,235
    Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,169
    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1062420206939762691 24 hours rolling news bollox summed up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,875
    edited November 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    You did , I thought the same but was starting to have some doubts
    However glad that it looks like a deal has been done.

    The EU has never negotiated with the Conservative party before. This ain’t over. Negotiations with them is like playing poker with someone who half way through the game instead of showing his hand, chops off his actual hand and sets fire to the house.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    edited November 2018

    Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.

    Less than 10% is pretty shameful for people that claim to want good terms with the EU.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,169

    Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.

    Cue for Downfall video :-

    Starmer,

    Starmer, has led them into the lobby.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458

    ydoethur said:

    Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.

    Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
    It was more his drumming up of Nationalist sentiment, appealing to the mob mentality I was getting at.
    A comparison to Trump or Corbyn would be valid on that basis.

    Not Hitler, and certainly not the Kaiser.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I have an immovable romantic holiday break scheduled from the 14th of February through to 18th of February in Edinburgh.

    Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.

    We came very close to having an election on February 7th in 1974. At the last moment Heath decided against it - but called one anyway for February 28th. Had he stuck to his original plan, many believe he would have been re-elected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
    Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
    Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?

    He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
    When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,169
    edited November 2018

    I have an immovable romantic holiday break scheduled from the 14th of February through to 18th of February in Edinburgh.

    Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.

    I hope your romantic break goes better than mine did 2 weeks ago, wading knee high through the warm waters of Venice. Someone wasn't impressed by her sighting of a drowned rat.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    +1

    Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.

    Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".

    A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.

    This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
    Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
    UK Establishment and EU Establishment.
    Which don't always succeed. Nothing has changed here - there's No political benefit for labour to back this and too many Tory rebels of remain and leave to pass any agreement.
    There is political benefit for anyone that wants to avoid a Corbyn-led No Deal Britain. There is no time for a 2nd referendum and Corbyn won't hold one anyway. But he will certainly beconme PM after a crash out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,875
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
    They have the numbers to bring down the government, but not the leader.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    Far from clear though that the Tories would have won in 1978!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
    I still repeat mine most Tory members let alone voters back a Canada Deal over No Deal, No Deal as a last resort


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,372
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.

    So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong? :D
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    I hear the sound of whistling in the dark.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
    Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
    Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?

    He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
    When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
    Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
    I still repeat mine most Tory members let alone voters back a Canada Deal over No Deal, No Deal as a last resort


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
    Oh for fuck's sake.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,235
    Rees-Mogg says Tories are at risk of being in 1846 territory.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.

    So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January evenings are lighter than December & November - though tend to be colder!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1062420206939762691 24 hours rolling news bollox summed up.

    Well that is taking the fun out of things.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000

    Rees-Mogg says Tories are at risk of being in 1846 territory.

    Well, he would remember!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
    I still repeat mine most Tory members let alone voters back a Canada Deal over No Deal, No Deal as a last resort


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
    Oh for fuck's sake.
    Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458
    edited November 2018

    Rees-Mogg says Tories are at risk of being in 1846 territory.

    Largest single party for the next five elections?

    I'm sure they could live with that...
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
    They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,235
    "Middle muddle, fiddle fuddle"- Rees-Mogg.
  • Alastair Campbell and JRM agreeing with each other a lot on C4...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
    I still repeat mine most Tory members let alone voters back a Canada Deal over No Deal, No Deal as a last resort


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
    Oh for fuck's sake.
    Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
    You are still quoting Conservative Home.

    Your increasingly irrational devotion to them reminds me of those people who cling to minor variants in RCD as evidence the earth is 6,000 years old.
  • Bleak days for those of us not obsessed with europe .
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
    Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
    Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?

    He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
    When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
    Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
    Indeed. For me it was a cushy 10% which I wouldn't have got today. My qualification certificates are getting very faded after well over half a century.

    That's why I'm retired and not practising!
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.

    Probably right, plus some who will abstain.

    Many Labour MPs represent heavily leave voting constituencies, the deal means we leave which satisfies the referendum result. If the Tory right wing is seen to be defeated, that's a good result from their point of view as well.

    If Brexit goes bad, most people will blame the Tory government and forget about which way their Labour MP voted, anyway a lot of Labour supporters still believe in the Tony Benn school of anti-EU ideology.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,235
    edited November 2018

    Alastair Campbell and JRM agreeing with each other a lot on C4...

    It goes to show that Theresa May is a uniter, not a divider. :tongue:
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,780
    The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP

    It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.

    Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.

    So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong? :D
    So I say again it will be a repeat of February 1974 most likely ending up with Corbyn as PM but having to agree the Brexit Deal.

    Indeed many Tories I know are increasingly relaxed about such a result then they can go into opposition led by Boris or another Leaver on a purer Brexit platform rather than being lumbered in government with a Deal many see as worthless or the consequences of No Deal.

    Of course you forget May got the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 in 2017 and an almost identical share to the start of the campaign, all that happened was minor party voters moved to Labour
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    DeClare said:

    Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.

    Probably right, plus some who will abstain.

    Many Labour MPs represent heavily leave voting constituencies, the deal means we leave which satisfies the referendum result. If the Tory right wing is seen to be defeated, that's a good result from their point of view as well.

    If Brexit goes bad, most people will blame the Tory government and forget about which way their Labour MP voted, anyway a lot of Labour supporters still believe in the Tony Benn school of anti-EU ideology.
    'A lot of Labour supporters' includes, I think Jeremy Corbyn.
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
    I still repeat mine most Tory members let alone voters back a Canada Deal over No Deal, No Deal as a last resort


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
    Oh for fuck's sake.
    Surely an instant ban to UKiphome for a month if posting any survey they do....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458

    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
    Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
    Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?

    He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
    When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
    Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
    Indeed. For me it was a cushy 10% which I wouldn't have got today. My qualification certificates are getting very faded after well over half a century.

    That's why I'm retired and not practising!
    I knew a doctor once who stopped practising.

    After 40 years, he felt he'd got it right at last.
  • To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    What tactics would suit the Conservative rebels best, a vote on May's leadership before or after it goes before parliament?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990

    Rees-Mogg says Tories are at risk of being in 1846 territory.

    So he is for the Corn Laws and May is Peel?
  • Bleak days for those of us not obsessed with europe .

    Will Tottenham Hotspur’s new stadium be open by the time we Brexit ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    Far from clear though that the Tories would have won in 1978!
    Even had Labour scraped home it would just have delayed the inevitable
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
    They have the numbers to bring down the government, but not the leader.
    Which only means an election and Corbyn PM of a minority government agreeing an almost identical Deal to May's
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    Theo said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    +1

    Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.

    Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".

    A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.

    This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
    Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
    UK Establishment and EU Establishment.
    Which don't always succeed. Nothing has changed here - there's No political benefit for labour to back this and too many Tory rebels of remain and leave to pass any agreement.
    There is political benefit for anyone that wants to avoid a Corbyn-led No Deal Britain. There is no time for a 2nd referendum and Corbyn won't hold one anyway. But he will certainly beconme PM after a crash out.
    Labour MPs do not care about a no deal Britain as much as they might claim they do (nor do Tory remainer rebels for that matter), or more of them would consider a crap deal over the risk of no deal. Nor does it appear their dislike of Corbyn means they actually want to avoid him leading the UK.

    If they believe a crap deal is worse than no deal (even if that is not a certainty) that's a decision reasonable people might make, but given they seem to be aiming for a GE or referendum, somehow, that doesn't appear to be the main calculation in any case.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,458

    Bleak days for those of us not obsessed with europe .

    Will Tottenham Hotspur’s new stadium be open by the time we Brexit ?
    Will Tottenham Hotspur's footballers have learned to play football by the time we Brexit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
    They have the numbers to bring down the government, but not the leader.
    Which only means an election and Corbyn PM of a minority government agreeing an almost identical Deal to May's
    Suddenly the deal would become good.
  • Bleak days for those of us not obsessed with europe .

    Will Tottenham Hotspur’s new stadium be open by the time we Brexit ?
    2022?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    ydoethur said:

    rpjs said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
    Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
    Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?

    He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
    When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
    Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
    Indeed. For me it was a cushy 10% which I wouldn't have got today. My qualification certificates are getting very faded after well over half a century.

    That's why I'm retired and not practising!
    I knew a doctor once who stopped practising.

    After 40 years, he felt he'd got it right at last.
    LOL.

    My favourite dr/pharmacist story concerns one of each who were at loggerheads. One day a patient went into see the doctor.
    'Dr, I've been to see the pharmacist..'
    Interrupting
    'And what did that fool you tell you to do!'
    'Come and see you!'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    HYUFD said:

    Rees-Mogg says Tories are at risk of being in 1846 territory.

    So he is for the Corn Laws and May is Peel?
    Come on Tories, do it, split, you know it makes sense and you clearly want to do it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    Far from clear though that the Tories would have won in 1978!
    Even had Labour scraped home it would just have delayed the inevitable
    Possibly - though Gallup had Labour 5% ahead in September & October 1978 . That would have given Callaghan a majority of 20 or so.
  • If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.

    It's January at the earliest
    If Con and Lab both see the same outcome coming I guess they could vote for an election and short-cut the 14 days?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
    I still repeat mine most Tory members let alone voters back a Canada Deal over No Deal, No Deal as a last resort


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
    Oh for fuck's sake.
    Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
    You are still quoting Conservative Home.

    Your increasingly irrational devotion to them reminds me of those people who cling to minor variants in RCD as evidence the earth is 6,000 years old.
    ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on, the last time the members were consulted.

    I will never apologise for quoting ConHome
  • ydoethur said:

    Bleak days for those of us not obsessed with europe .

    Will Tottenham Hotspur’s new stadium be open by the time we Brexit ?
    Will Tottenham Hotspur's footballers have learned to play football by the time we Brexit?
    Take that.... :)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,372
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.

    So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong? :D
    So I say again it will be a repeat of February 1974 most likely ending up with Corbyn as PM but having to agree the Brexit Deal.

    Or Con voters could decide to punish the Tories for selling Brexit down the river by mostly staying at home while Jezza's voters turnout in droves and deliver him an 80 seat majority...
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,235
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/downing-street-slaps-down-mordaunt-over-her-bid-to-withdraw-from-unesco-jkqh66wkr

    Downing Street has slapped down Penny Mordaunt for suggesting Britain should withdraw funding from Unesco, amid criticism of cabinet “freelancing”.

    The international development secretary told cabinet colleagues last month that she wants Britain to withdraw from the UN’s cultural and education body.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,875
    edited November 2018
    It’s hard to judge how fucked we are. Somewhere between very fucked and totally fucked if the Tories are determined to destroy themselves and us.
  • Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.

    It would have to be triple that number for the deal to have even an outside hope.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,780
    FF43 said:

    The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP

    It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.

    Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

    Or rather it takes 500 pages to hide the core fact that if in the future GB diverges from the EU, NI will diverge to the same extent from GB. I think Mrs May would be writing off the DUP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096
    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to judge how fucked we are. Somewhere between very fucked and totally fucked.

    So we've avoided apocalyptically fucked? Thank goodness.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
    They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
    No they do not.

    They need 160 Tory MPs to topple May. May got 165 Tory MPs in the first round alone in 2016 and only 120 Tory MPs even backed Leave
  • HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
    I still repeat mine most Tory members let alone voters back a Canada Deal over No Deal, No Deal as a last resort


    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
    Oh for fuck's sake.
    Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
    You are still quoting Conservative Home.

    Your increasingly irrational devotion to them reminds me of those people who cling to minor variants in RCD as evidence the earth is 6,000 years old.
    ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on, the last time the members were consulted.

    I will never apologise for quoting ConHome
    Now that's an epitaph....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,096

    Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.

    It would have to be triple that number for the deal to have even an outside hope.
    Hard to say exactly how many would be needed, but given it is not only the hard leave headbangers who were looking to vote against, 40+ seems a minimum and even that unattainable.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to judge how fucked we are. Somewhere between very fucked and totally fucked if the Tories are determined to destroy themselves and us.

    On the Sir Richard Mottram scale, probably.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    edited November 2018

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/downing-street-slaps-down-mordaunt-over-her-bid-to-withdraw-from-unesco-jkqh66wkr

    Downing Street has slapped down Penny Mordaunt for suggesting Britain should withdraw funding from Unesco, amid criticism of cabinet “freelancing”.

    The international development secretary told cabinet colleagues last month that she wants Britain to withdraw from the UN’s cultural and education body.

    May might as well just sack her, Leadsom and McVey tonight as they are going to resign most likely anyway. Put some waverers in post with collective responsibility
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited November 2018

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.

    It's January at the earliest
    If Con and Lab both see the same outcome coming I guess they could vote for an election and short-cut the 14 days?
    It would still require 25 working days between Dissolution and Polling Day - ie 5 weeks. Xmas and New Years Bank Holidays would be excluded from the calculation. I suspect that January 17th is the earliest realistic date for an election - though am not predicting it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,780
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP

    It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.

    Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

    Or rather it takes 500 pages to hide the core fact that if in the future GB diverges from the EU, NI will diverge to the same extent from GB. I think Mrs May would be writing off the DUP.
    And if so, Mrs May has done what she said no British prime minister would ever do.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Bleak days for those of us not obsessed with europe .

    Will Tottenham Hotspur’s new stadium be open by the time we Brexit ?
    Will Tottenham Hotspur's footballers have learned to play football by the time we Brexit?
    I doubt they will have learned how to win a competition.

    They could be 2 - 0 up with 5 minutes to play and still lose. A cup final or semi final.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,875
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
    They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
    No they do not.

    They need 160 Tory MPs to topple May. May got 165 Tory MPs in the first round alone in 2016 and only 120 Tory MPs even backed Leave
    Not so. It took fewer to topple Thatcher.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited November 2018

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to judge how fucked we are. Somewhere between very fucked and totally fucked if the Tories are determined to destroy themselves and us.

    On the Sir Richard Mottram scale, probably.
    I think the Guinness Book of Records proposed the "millihelen" as the unit of beauty sufficient to launch a single ship. If a "mottram" is the unit of one government department being f*cked, what would be the unit for a whole country? A megamottram, gigamottram?
  • So what level of posturing has PB seen today ?

    A Jo Johnson level or has it reached a Boris Johnson level ?

    :wink:

    Looking in some detail at today's employment data it suggests that the minimum level of unemployment can only be fractionally below 4%.

    Its noticeable that a slight increase in unemployment has happened at the same time as vacancies reaching another record high, redundancies reaching another record low and a continuing shift to full time, permanent employment from part-time, temporary and self-employment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,875
    So the only interesting question is what does Corbyn want to save the deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
    Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    :D
    Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.

    It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years

    There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
    And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.

    So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong? :D
    So I say again it will be a repeat of February 1974 most likely ending up with Corbyn as PM but having to agree the Brexit Deal.

    Or Con voters could decide to punish the Tories for selling Brexit down the river by mostly staying at home while Jezza's voters turnout in droves and deliver him an 80 seat majority...
    You have continually thrown your toys out the pram since Chequers but the fact remains the Tories are still at least level pegging Labour in the polls.

    In any case I did not argue Corbyn would likely become PM it is just an argument of the margin.

    PM Corbyn would of course then do an almost identical deal to May's anyway with the EU so the ERG still lose but Corbyn has the votes to get it through Parliament then if May cannot.

    They would then try and rebuild in opposition under Boris
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP

    It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.

    Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

    Or rather it takes 500 pages to hide the core fact that if in the future GB diverges from the EU, NI will diverge to the same extent from GB. I think Mrs May would be writing off the DUP.
    And if so, Mrs May has done what she said no British prime minister would ever do.
    She said no British PM would have an Irish Sea Customs border. Not no regulatory difference. Northern Ireland already has regulatory difference, not least its own legal system.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,457
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.
    G, no manners in today's world, all the decency of old is ignored. UK is an oafish selfish place nowadays.
    Evening Malc.

    What a "too doo" isn't it? :D
    Evening Gin , it is indeed a right stramash and will be a rammy soon.
    And a stishie no doubt. Street Talk by J K Annand. Superb poem.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
    Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
    They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
    No they do not.

    They need 160 Tory MPs to topple May. May got 165 Tory MPs in the first round alone in 2016 and only 120 Tory MPs even backed Leave
    Not so. It took fewer to topple Thatcher.
    Thatcher was facing further votes that she could not win. If May wins by one vote she's "safe" from a further internal party challenge for a year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,457
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone would think Mrs May is paranoid...

    Doesn’t mean that they are not all out to get her.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,758

    So what level of posturing has PB seen today ?

    A Jo Johnson level or has it reached a Boris Johnson level ?

    :wink:

    Looking in some detail at today's employment data it suggests that the minimum level of unemployment can only be fractionally below 4%.

    Its noticeable that a slight increase in unemployment has happened at the same time as vacancies reaching another record high, redundancies reaching another record low and a continuing shift to full time, permanent employment from part-time, temporary and self-employment.

    The problem is when there aren't enough people to fill all these vacancies and the competition leads to wage inflation and price inflation. That may already be happening in the south.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,875
    Would the SNP lend her the votes if she. added an Indyref2 clause?
This discussion has been closed.