Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public

124678

Comments

  • Mark Stone saying the EU is looking nervously on.

    They may find they have a whole lot of problems themselves
  • If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.

    It's January at the earliest
    Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.
    A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916

    Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:

    1. Success!

    2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).

    I agree with that.

    Anyone who thinks a potential PM Boris has the ability to do the necessary work for negotiating the UK leaving the EU is nuts. If May can't get a deal through I expect nobody can.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Mueller seeking more details on Nigel Farage

    https://twitter.com/ericgeller/status/1062073460552294406
    So they're admitting to acts of war against the United States?
  • Hard to describe the depth of the utter and total contempt I feel for the destructive, mendacious, ignorant Bucanneering Brexiteers and their bigoted, bowler-hatted Ulster mates for the utter shit-show they have inflicted on our country.

    Try because a majoirty of your fellow countrymen were sufficiently pissed off with what the Europhiles had been doing for 40 years on the sly, without asking the voters permission. Well done, Europhiles, for this utter shit-show.

    Nothing to do with my fellow countrymen. This is all about a few members of the hard right who have spent the last two and a half years promising impossible outcomes and unachievable solutions while themselves being shielded from all the consequences of the lies they have told.

  • glw said:

    Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:

    1. Success!

    2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).

    I agree with that.

    Anyone who thinks a potential PM Boris has the ability to do the necessary work for negotiating the UK leaving the EU is nuts. If May can't get a deal through I expect nobody can.
    If she does go saying she did her best, history could be quite kind to her
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    A majority of the Cabinet are Remainers, they will back the Deal, though Leadsom, Mourdaunt and McVey will probably resign
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.

    :D
  • My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.

    You haven't had the bill yet.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.

    It's January at the earliest
    Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.
    A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...
    We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    glw said:

    Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:

    1. Success!

    2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).

    I agree with that.

    Anyone who thinks a potential PM Boris has the ability to do the necessary work for negotiating the UK leaving the EU is nuts. If May can't get a deal through I expect nobody can.
    If she does go saying she did her best, history could be quite kind to her
    I agree glad to hear T May has done a deal , I wish her and the country all the best.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what No Deal Brexit fanatics think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majority in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.

    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
  • Complete demonstration of how unsuited Boris is to office

    He said 'According to these proposals, if the reports are correct, .....................

    At least Keir Starmer says let us see the proposals first

    Starmer doesn't want to see the proposals. His position is that the Tories are useless and Labour would do better. Having nothing to comment on helps him.

    Boris has to get his soundbites out fast to get into the News Cycle before No 10 starts parading loyal ministers walking out of No 10 this evening 1 by 1 saying that its marvellous. Even though they won't have read the document or the full legal advice.

    I really wish we had Maggie right now
  • If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.

    It's January at the earliest
    Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.
    A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...
    We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.
    Behind which door would the heavens proclaim NOTHING HAS CHANGED...?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916

    If she does go saying she did her best, history could be quite kind to her

    I'm not even a fan of May, but when you look at those who are her biggest critics you see nothing other than a bunch of grandstanding fools who put their politcal ambition above the good of the country.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what No Deal Brexit fanatics think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
    T
    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
    I'll settle for that.

    Then once Brexit is out of the way we can crack on with all of the proper Socialist stuff and make the country a better place.
  • Mr. glw, Arcadius and Honorius loathed one another. That didn't make either of them competent.
  • HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.

    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
    I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081

    This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?

    How many cabinet resignations can she survive?

    Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?

    Good evening, everybody.
  • HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.

    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
    I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.
    If there is an election it will not be before xmas
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.

    It's January at the earliest
    Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.
    A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...
    We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.
    Behind which door would the heavens proclaim NOTHING HAS CHANGED...?
    Stop this, they'll never have a GE during the period of dark evenings. Brenda from Bristol would go absolutely bananas.

    Feb 28th at the very earliest.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    AnneJGP said:

    This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?

    How many cabinet resignations can she survive?

    Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?

    Good evening, everybody.
    Covfefe?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.

    Complete demonstration of how unsuited Boris is to office

    He said 'According to these proposals, if the reports are correct, .....................

    At least Keir Starmer says let us see the proposals first

    Starmer doesn't want to see the proposals. His position is that the Tories are useless and Labour would do better. Having nothing to comment on helps him.

    Boris has to get his soundbites out fast to get into the News Cycle
    Not like he cares about much else, and he has rather been upstaged by his brother in recent days.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.

    You haven't had the bill yet.
    I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.
  • Good evening, Miss JGP.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AnneJGP said:

    This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?

    How many cabinet resignations can she survive?

    Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?

    Good evening, everybody.
    I suspect it's typoese or perhaps autocorrectomania.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
    Till a journalist found out?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.

    Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I wonder if May has been having back channel talks with Labour leavers and/or members of the PLP who hate Corbyn.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Right, I'm going home.

    No sneaky cabinet resignations before I get off the tube please.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Hard to describe the depth of the utter and total contempt I feel for the destructive, mendacious, ignorant Bucanneering Brexiteers and their bigoted, bowler-hatted Ulster mates for the utter shit-show they have inflicted on our country.

    Try because a majoirty of your fellow countrymen were sufficiently pissed off with what the Europhiles had been doing for 40 years on the sly, without asking the voters permission. Well done, Europhiles, for this utter shit-show.

    Nothing to do with my fellow countrymen. This is all about a few members of the hard right who have spent the last two and a half years promising impossible outcomes and unachievable solutions while themselves being shielded from all the consequences of the lies they have told.

    Keep telling yourslef that. It makes you feel good, absolving you of the responsibility you properly share.

    Brexit didn't hppen because a few people told porkies. It happened because people were pissed. And had been for a long time. ANd weren't listened to.

    May's feeble attempt at implementing Brexit will do nothing to assuage that anger.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    dixiedean said:

    So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
    Till a journalist found out?

    Not any jounalist, but a foreign, Irish jounalist.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    In the end, Labour will probably back the deal as a full CU is more or less guaranteed (which is what Corbyn wanted)

    They'll aim to go into an early GE as the party who stopped a hard brexit and, once elected, will reopen the deal to make their changes (which the EU said can happen during the transition period)
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    dixiedean said:

    So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
    Till a journalist found out?

    Not any jounalist, but a foreign, Irish jounalist.
    Irish citizens are not foreigners. Ireland Act 1949.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.

    You haven't had the bill yet.
    I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.
    And what a competent bunch of politicians we are left with in their absence.

    I loathe Clegg and Alexander for their destruction of the Lib Dems, but the Coalition was light-years better than this shower.
  • My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.

    You haven't had the bill yet.
    I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.
    So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.
  • I wonder if May has been having back channel talks with Labour leavers and/or members of the PLP who hate Corbyn.

    I thought we knew this a few weeks ago. A group of 30-45 was reported, although not sure how many were being talked to.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    What time is the first declaration - I mean resignation?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.

    And all 4 of them now have much more lucrative careers.

    Yeah, that really showed them...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    rpjs said:

    dixiedean said:

    So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
    Till a journalist found out?

    Not any jounalist, but a foreign, Irish jounalist.
    Irish citizens are not foreigners. Ireland Act 1949.
    Tell that to Rees-Mogg.
  • John_M said:

    AnneJGP said:

    This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?

    How many cabinet resignations can she survive?

    Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?

    Good evening, everybody.
    I suspect it's typoese or perhaps autocorrectomania.
    "politicians they" ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.

    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
    I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.
    If there is an election it will not be before xmas
    What fun! Carol singers followed by canvassers!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.

    You haven't had the bill yet.
    I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.
    So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.
    I was laughing at the Guardian's coverage of the economy today opining that increasing wages is a bad thing.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    DeClare said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.

    It's January at the earliest
    Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.
    A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...
    We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.
    Behind which door would the heavens proclaim NOTHING HAS CHANGED...?
    Stop this, they'll never have a GE during the period of dark evenings. Brenda from Bristol would go absolutely bananas.

    Feb 28th at the very earliest.
    March 28th would be better!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what No Deal Brexit fanatics think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
    T
    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
    I'll settle for that.

    Then once Brexit is out of the way we can crack on with all of the proper Socialist stuff and make the country a better place.
    Or face Leader of the Opposition Boris hammering 'cave in Corbyn'
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Interesting to see the usual suspects trying to get all their spin in early when they haven't got the foggiest clue what is in the deal.

    What is most interesting to me is what the pro-European Labour MPs do. Corbyn, as a eurosceptic,, obviously has his interests aligned. He wants a crash out Brexit because he wants to leave, wants an opportunity to bring back state aid and he wants a crash to become PM. The rest of the Labour Party have a choice: on the one side they will get to power (albeit in a way that cements the hard left in power), on the other they will destroy any goodwill the EU has towards the UK and cause unnecessary harm to the people they went into politics to serve.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Scott_P said:

    So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.

    And all 4 of them now have much more lucrative careers.

    Yeah, that really showed them...
    You cannot take your money with you to the grave, but your reputation or lack of it lives on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.

    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
    I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.
    It is those voters who will never vote for Corbyn and who want a Deal
  • Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    That is a most implausible statement,

    It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Scott_P said:

    So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.

    And all 4 of them now have much more lucrative careers.

    Yeah, that really showed them...
    You cannot take your money with you to the grave, but your reputation or lack of it lives on.
    Did not bother Jimmy Saville!
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.
    If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.

    However, where that leaves us goodness knows
    David Davis as acting PM....?

    The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
    No they won't.

    Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.

    The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.

    So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
    I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.
    If there is an election it will not be before xmas
    Yes.. sorry.. for "December", read "rough shorthand for months which have more dark than light and in which people have not enough sun to fulfil their requirement for Vitamin D or generally go about their normal lives, let alone consider and act on the democratic needs of the country to sort out a policy question in which they lost interest 29 months ago" :)

    Anyway.. to summarise:

    Standard-issue popcorn GIF

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?
    In Werrity, we know not.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    You cannot take your money with you to the grave, but your reputation or lack of it lives on.

    The reputations of those who opposed Brexit will only be enhanced by the shitshow to come
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited November 2018

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    +1

    Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.

    Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".

    A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.

    This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.

    Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.
    I don't see that that will matter - there simply are not the votes for any deal, and any other option involves a delay
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?
    Left No 10 already.
  • AnneJGP said:

    This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?

    How many cabinet resignations can she survive?

    Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?

    Good evening, everybody.
    Its gibberish for "Damn You Autocorrect"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
  • 815,000 votes were cast in NI at the last General Election, the DUP got 292,000 votes and 10 seats and now we are to be lectured by them on taking rules from Brussels when they won't even accept all the rules from Westminster. Bollocks to them....if May has shafted them, I say well done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Theo said:

    Interesting to see the usual suspects trying to get all their spin in early when they haven't got the foggiest clue what is in the deal.

    What is most interesting to me is what the pro-European Labour MPs do. Corbyn, as a eurosceptic,, obviously has his interests aligned. He wants a crash out Brexit because he wants to leave, wants an opportunity to bring back state aid and he wants a crash to become PM. The rest of the Labour Party have a choice: on the one side they will get to power (albeit in a way that cements the hard left in power), on the other they will destroy any goodwill the EU has towards the UK and cause unnecessary harm to the people they went into politics to serve.

    Sounds like an easy choice, but no doubt it does not appear that way to them.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rpjs said:

    If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.

    Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.

    It would fit the rumours the other day that May is preparing for a December election. She knows the deal would trigger the DUP into calling a Parliamentary VONC that she'd lose.

    And it neatly heads off the Tory VONC option: there wouldn't be any time for the Tories to depose her and elect a new leader before the General Election.

    She's throwing double or quit again.
    Too late for a December election unless it is called tomorrow. 20th December is last realistic Thursday option.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Jezza actually sounds the most measured so far - at least he's saying he'll read it first.

    Jezza is always measured in interviews but anyway difficult not to sound more measured than JRM. Slave state????
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?
    Left No 10 already.
    Like Heseltine in 1986 or all smiles ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    ..

    Yes they would, they will blame the Tories for 'forcing ' no deal.

    It would only help the Tories if there are no negative consequences to no deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.

    What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?
    Left No 10 already.
    Like Heseltine in 1986 or all smiles ?
    Like Heseltine? Has he been helicoptering?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    +1

    Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.

    Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".

    A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.

    This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
    Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018

    815,000 votes were cast in NI at the last General Election, the DUP got 292,000 votes and 10 seats and now we are to be lectured by them on taking rules from Brussels when they won't even accept all the rules from Westminster. Bollocks to them....if May has shafted them, I say well done.

    I would say that the price of an EU deal May be shafting the DUP. Another reason an early GE may happen as they retaliate even if they claim otherwise now.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.

    Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.
    They'll just spin it out, first every member will be given a large tome to digest, then they'll be a delay of a few days, then if the vote rejects the deal, she'll say it's not binding. By then it'll be nearly Christmas and the house will go into recess.

    Then in the new year, they'll call a vote of no confidence, which will be delayed by a few days, then if it's passed the PM will go into talks to try to get it reversed which will last the full two weeks and if it's not reversed, she'll resign, then a new caretaker PM will take her place and try to say that the VONC doesn't still apply, then the speaker will tell him it does and after a couple more days delay a long campaign GE will be called.

    After all that, polling day will be at the end of Feb or in March.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    So is that Brexit all done then? Good. The formality of the Commons vote and then we crack open the champagne *.

    * Well clearly not champagne obviously. Fizzy British Dog urine. But the sentiment is the same.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    815,000 votes were cast in NI at the last General Election, the DUP got 292,000 votes and 10 seats and now we are to be lectured by them on taking rules from Brussels when they won't even accept all the rules from Westminster. Bollocks to them....if May has shafted them, I say well done.

    I know plenty of bright, dynamic, charming Ulster people. Unfortunately for Ulster none of them live there having decided to move to the 21st Century. Which may be why Ulster has the politicans it deserves.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Mail splash is "Brexit Deal Is Done". Read into that what you want.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Jonathan said:

    So is that Brexit all done then? Good. The formality of the Commons vote and then we crack open the champagne *.

    * Well clearly not champagne obviously. Fizzy British Dog urine. But the sentiment is the same.

    Always more of a horse piss man myself. Still, each to their own.
  • JRM - THIS IS WAR

    How can the man continue to operate under the whip of the enemy of the United Kingdom? If its war - and the government are TRAITORS then what does that make him and the rest of the ERG continuing to take the whip.

    What a cowardly snivelling turd.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    What a stupid comment. No one else has stepped up to try to steer it and it only takes 48 letters to try, what's thus about 'not letting' anyone else? If you don't try to remove her then of course she kept going.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    JRM - THIS IS WAR

    How can the man continue to operate under the whip of the enemy of the United Kingdom? If its war - and the government are TRAITORS then what does that make him and the rest of the ERG continuing to take the whip.

    Reckless?

    Or has he now been Marked...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?

    Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
    Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...

    AND Theresa May leading the campaign.

    What could possibly go wrong? :D
    January 17th is more likely!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal

    Until they find out what it means
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.

    This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    So Boris and Rees Mogg come out denouncing potentially the most important document in the last 50 years before even reading the bloody thing. Idiots.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?

    Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.

    And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...

    Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
    In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
    Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.

    Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
    The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    JRM - THIS IS WAR

    How can the man continue to operate under the whip of the enemy of the United Kingdom? If its war - and the government are TRAITORS then what does that make him and the rest of the ERG continuing to take the whip.

    What a cowardly snivelling turd.

    If his comments are as reported, agreed. The rhetoric for a long time has been absurd, and if they talk like this of their own party the party needs to split, and test which side is stronger.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.

    I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remover a long time ago.
    Depends on whether the DUP continue to support the government.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    So now Brexit is done, is it time for that AV thread? Or Maybe we need a referendum about gravity. It has been pulling us down all this time. The British people have a right to vote themselves freedom.
  • kle4 said:

    To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.

    +1

    Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.

    Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".

    A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.

    This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
    Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
    UK Establishment and EU Establishment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113

    How stupid does he think everyone is?.
    He thinks he's intelligent.

    He also assumes nobody has seen the lies on his CV.

    He thought of himself as a potential PM.

    Does that sort of answer your question?
  • Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.
This discussion has been closed.