Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.
Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
We had next to no control over our own laws. Now, if reports are accurate, we will get that for the 79% (and growing) of the economy consisting of services.
Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.
Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.
They'll just spin it out, first every member will be given a large tome to digest, then they'll be a delay of a few days, then if the vote rejects the deal, she'll say it's not binding. By then it'll be nearly Christmas and the house will go into recess.
Then in the new year, they'll call a vote of no confidence, which will be delayed by a few days, then if it's passed the PM will go into talks to try to get it reversed which will last the full two weeks and if it's not reversed, she'll resign, then a new caretaker PM will take her place and try to say that the VONC doesn't still apply, then the speaker will tell him it does and after a couple more days delay a long campaign GE will be called.
After all that, polling day will be at the end of Feb or in March.
By which time the pound will be worth about as much as the Moldovan Leu.
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
That is a most implausible statement,
It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.
Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
I think mwjfrome17 is thinking more about WW1 generals rather than leaders..
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remover a long time ago.
Depends on whether the DUP continue to support the government.
The DUP I believe when they make threats. Right or wrong, and with a focus on NI politics, I believe their Westminster positioning is genuine.
Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.
Whilst it’s refreshing not comparing JRM to a certain WW2 villain, maybe pinning WW1 on him is a little much.
Interesting to see the usual suspects trying to get all their spin in early when they haven't got the foggiest clue what is in the deal.
What is most interesting to me is what the pro-European Labour MPs do. Corbyn, as a eurosceptic,, obviously has his interests aligned. He wants a crash out Brexit because he wants to leave, wants an opportunity to bring back state aid and he wants a crash to become PM. The rest of the Labour Party have a choice: on the one side they will get to power (albeit in a way that cements the hard left in power), on the other they will destroy any goodwill the EU has towards the UK and cause unnecessary harm to the people they went into politics to serve.
Sounds like an easy choice, but no doubt it does not appear that way to them.
You would think so but it appears most of the Labour Party have been nerve stapled since the election, with no free will or principles of their own.
Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.
Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
His suits are bit like some of Kaiser Wilhem's though!
To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
+1
Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.
Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".
A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.
This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
UK Establishment and EU Establishment.
Which don't always succeed. Nothing has changed here - there's No political benefit for labour to back this and too many Tory rebels of remain and leave to pass any agreement.
To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
You did , I thought the same but was starting to have some doubts However glad that it looks like a deal has been done.
Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.
Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
It was more his drumming up of Nationalist sentiment, appealing to the mob mentality I was getting at.
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
That is a most implausible statement,
It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?
He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
You did , I thought the same but was starting to have some doubts However glad that it looks like a deal has been done.
The EU has never negotiated with the Conservative party before. This ain’t over. Negotiations with them is like playing poker with someone who half way through the game instead of showing his hand, chops off his actual hand and sets fire to the house.
Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.
Whatever his faults, Rees Mogg is nothing like Kaiser Wilhelm or Adolf Hitler.
It was more his drumming up of Nationalist sentiment, appealing to the mob mentality I was getting at.
A comparison to Trump or Corbyn would be valid on that basis.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
I have an immovable romantic holiday break scheduled from the 14th of February through to 18th of February in Edinburgh.
Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.
We came very close to having an election on February 7th in 1974. At the last moment Heath decided against it - but called one anyway for February 28th. Had he stuck to his original plan, many believe he would have been re-elected.
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
That is a most implausible statement,
It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?
He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
I have an immovable romantic holiday break scheduled from the 14th of February through to 18th of February in Edinburgh.
Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.
I hope your romantic break goes better than mine did 2 weeks ago, wading knee high through the warm waters of Venice. Someone wasn't impressed by her sighting of a drowned rat.
To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
+1
Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.
Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".
A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.
This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
UK Establishment and EU Establishment.
Which don't always succeed. Nothing has changed here - there's No political benefit for labour to back this and too many Tory rebels of remain and leave to pass any agreement.
There is political benefit for anyone that wants to avoid a Corbyn-led No Deal Britain. There is no time for a 2nd referendum and Corbyn won't hold one anyway. But he will certainly beconme PM after a crash out.
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
They have the numbers to bring down the government, but not the leader.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
Far from clear though that the Tories would have won in 1978!
If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
That is a most implausible statement,
It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?
He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)
If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.
Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.
Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
You are still quoting Conservative Home.
Your increasingly irrational devotion to them reminds me of those people who cling to minor variants in RCD as evidence the earth is 6,000 years old.
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
That is a most implausible statement,
It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?
He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
Indeed. For me it was a cushy 10% which I wouldn't have got today. My qualification certificates are getting very faded after well over half a century.
Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.
Probably right, plus some who will abstain.
Many Labour MPs represent heavily leave voting constituencies, the deal means we leave which satisfies the referendum result. If the Tory right wing is seen to be defeated, that's a good result from their point of view as well.
If Brexit goes bad, most people will blame the Tory government and forget about which way their Labour MP voted, anyway a lot of Labour supporters still believe in the Tony Benn school of anti-EU ideology.
The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP
It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.
Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)
And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.
So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong?
So I say again it will be a repeat of February 1974 most likely ending up with Corbyn as PM but having to agree the Brexit Deal.
Indeed many Tories I know are increasingly relaxed about such a result then they can go into opposition led by Boris or another Leaver on a purer Brexit platform rather than being lumbered in government with a Deal many see as worthless or the consequences of No Deal.
Of course you forget May got the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 in 2017 and an almost identical share to the start of the campaign, all that happened was minor party voters moved to Labour
Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.
Probably right, plus some who will abstain.
Many Labour MPs represent heavily leave voting constituencies, the deal means we leave which satisfies the referendum result. If the Tory right wing is seen to be defeated, that's a good result from their point of view as well.
If Brexit goes bad, most people will blame the Tory government and forget about which way their Labour MP voted, anyway a lot of Labour supporters still believe in the Tony Benn school of anti-EU ideology.
'A lot of Labour supporters' includes, I think Jeremy Corbyn.
If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
That is a most implausible statement,
It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?
He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
Indeed. For me it was a cushy 10% which I wouldn't have got today. My qualification certificates are getting very faded after well over half a century.
That's why I'm retired and not practising!
I knew a doctor once who stopped practising.
After 40 years, he felt he'd got it right at last.
To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
What tactics would suit the Conservative rebels best, a vote on May's leadership before or after it goes before parliament?
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
Far from clear though that the Tories would have won in 1978!
Even had Labour scraped home it would just have delayed the inevitable
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
They have the numbers to bring down the government, but not the leader.
Which only means an election and Corbyn PM of a minority government agreeing an almost identical Deal to May's
To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
+1
Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.
Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".
A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.
This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.
UK Establishment and EU Establishment.
Which don't always succeed. Nothing has changed here - there's No political benefit for labour to back this and too many Tory rebels of remain and leave to pass any agreement.
There is political benefit for anyone that wants to avoid a Corbyn-led No Deal Britain. There is no time for a 2nd referendum and Corbyn won't hold one anyway. But he will certainly beconme PM after a crash out.
Labour MPs do not care about a no deal Britain as much as they might claim they do (nor do Tory remainer rebels for that matter), or more of them would consider a crap deal over the risk of no deal. Nor does it appear their dislike of Corbyn means they actually want to avoid him leading the UK.
If they believe a crap deal is worse than no deal (even if that is not a certainty) that's a decision reasonable people might make, but given they seem to be aiming for a GE or referendum, somehow, that doesn't appear to be the main calculation in any case.
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
They have the numbers to bring down the government, but not the leader.
Which only means an election and Corbyn PM of a minority government agreeing an almost identical Deal to May's
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
That is a most implausible statement,
It implies the good Dr Fox can read.
Posting as a pharmacist (retired) I would opine that Dr F can almost certainly read. I doubt very much doubt though that, as a former GP, he can communicate in writing.
Did you hear of the doctor who turned kidnapper?
He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
When I qualified, 10% of the marks in practical dispensing were given for prescription reading. Samples of poor handwriting were taken from NNS precriptions from all over the country. Perhaps fortunately for me I had worked in vacations well away from where I was examined, and 'samples' from local GP's to my home featured in those presented to me.
Aren't prescriptions all electronic in the UK now? They are here in New York State (other states are available and may vary) and I believe that hand-written prescriptions are no longer allowed here.
Indeed. For me it was a cushy 10% which I wouldn't have got today. My qualification certificates are getting very faded after well over half a century.
That's why I'm retired and not practising!
I knew a doctor once who stopped practising.
After 40 years, he felt he'd got it right at last.
LOL.
My favourite dr/pharmacist story concerns one of each who were at loggerheads. One day a patient went into see the doctor. 'Dr, I've been to see the pharmacist..' Interrupting 'And what did that fool you tell you to do!' 'Come and see you!'
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
Far from clear though that the Tories would have won in 1978!
Even had Labour scraped home it would just have delayed the inevitable
Possibly - though Gallup had Labour 5% ahead in September & October 1978 . That would have given Callaghan a majority of 20 or so.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.
It's January at the earliest
If Con and Lab both see the same outcome coming I guess they could vote for an election and short-cut the 14 days?
If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.
Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
You are still quoting Conservative Home.
Your increasingly irrational devotion to them reminds me of those people who cling to minor variants in RCD as evidence the earth is 6,000 years old.
ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on, the last time the members were consulted.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)
And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.
So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong?
So I say again it will be a repeat of February 1974 most likely ending up with Corbyn as PM but having to agree the Brexit Deal.
Or Con voters could decide to punish the Tories for selling Brexit down the river by mostly staying at home while Jezza's voters turnout in droves and deliver him an 80 seat majority...
Downing Street has slapped down Penny Mordaunt for suggesting Britain should withdraw funding from Unesco, amid criticism of cabinet “freelancing”.
The international development secretary told cabinet colleagues last month that she wants Britain to withdraw from the UN’s cultural and education body.
The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP
It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.
Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.
Or rather it takes 500 pages to hide the core fact that if in the future GB diverges from the EU, NI will diverge to the same extent from GB. I think Mrs May would be writing off the DUP.
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
No they do not.
They need 160 Tory MPs to topple May. May got 165 Tory MPs in the first round alone in 2016 and only 120 Tory MPs even backed Leave
If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remain
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.
Nothing 'for fuck's sake about it' even your own poll has 57% of 2017 Tory voters wanting a Canada Deal as first preference, the problem is the backstop
You are still quoting Conservative Home.
Your increasingly irrational devotion to them reminds me of those people who cling to minor variants in RCD as evidence the earth is 6,000 years old.
ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on, the last time the members were consulted.
Channel 4 News claiming 20 labour rebels will vote with the government. Starmer denies this.
It would have to be triple that number for the deal to have even an outside hope.
Hard to say exactly how many would be needed, but given it is not only the hard leave headbangers who were looking to vote against, 40+ seems a minimum and even that unattainable.
Downing Street has slapped down Penny Mordaunt for suggesting Britain should withdraw funding from Unesco, amid criticism of cabinet “freelancing”.
The international development secretary told cabinet colleagues last month that she wants Britain to withdraw from the UN’s cultural and education body.
May might as well just sack her, Leadsom and McVey tonight as they are going to resign most likely anyway. Put some waverers in post with collective responsibility
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.
It's January at the earliest
If Con and Lab both see the same outcome coming I guess they could vote for an election and short-cut the 14 days?
It would still require 25 working days between Dissolution and Polling Day - ie 5 weeks. Xmas and New Years Bank Holidays would be excluded from the calculation. I suspect that January 17th is the earliest realistic date for an election - though am not predicting it.
The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP
It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.
Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.
Or rather it takes 500 pages to hide the core fact that if in the future GB diverges from the EU, NI will diverge to the same extent from GB. I think Mrs May would be writing off the DUP.
And if so, Mrs May has done what she said no British prime minister would ever do.
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
No they do not.
They need 160 Tory MPs to topple May. May got 165 Tory MPs in the first round alone in 2016 and only 120 Tory MPs even backed Leave
It’s hard to judge how fucked we are. Somewhere between very fucked and totally fucked if the Tories are determined to destroy themselves and us.
On the Sir Richard Mottram scale, probably.
I think the Guinness Book of Records proposed the "millihelen" as the unit of beauty sufficient to launch a single ship. If a "mottram" is the unit of one government department being f*cked, what would be the unit for a whole country? A megamottram, gigamottram?
A Jo Johnson level or has it reached a Boris Johnson level ?
Looking in some detail at today's employment data it suggests that the minimum level of unemployment can only be fractionally below 4%.
Its noticeable that a slight increase in unemployment has happened at the same time as vacancies reaching another record high, redundancies reaching another record low and a continuing shift to full time, permanent employment from part-time, temporary and self-employment.
If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
January 17th is more likely!
Trudging to the polls in the January gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 4:00pm...
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Again the Tories still lead or are level in most polls.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
And the Tories were 20% ahead on 14/05/17 (less than a month before Theresa blew Dave's majority)
And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.
So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong?
So I say again it will be a repeat of February 1974 most likely ending up with Corbyn as PM but having to agree the Brexit Deal.
Or Con voters could decide to punish the Tories for selling Brexit down the river by mostly staying at home while Jezza's voters turnout in droves and deliver him an 80 seat majority...
You have continually thrown your toys out the pram since Chequers but the fact remains the Tories are still at least level pegging Labour in the polls.
In any case I did not argue Corbyn would likely become PM it is just an argument of the margin.
PM Corbyn would of course then do an almost identical deal to May's anyway with the EU so the ERG still lose but Corbyn has the votes to get it through Parliament then if May cannot.
They would then try and rebuild in opposition under Boris
The hint from this thread on the Soft Irish land border/no customs border in Irish Sea/UK ability to diverge from the EU conundrum, where you can keep two out of three, but you have to lose one of the three. It looks as if Mrs May will sacrifice no Irish Sea border and in this way do over the DUP
It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.
Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.
Or rather it takes 500 pages to hide the core fact that if in the future GB diverges from the EU, NI will diverge to the same extent from GB. I think Mrs May would be writing off the DUP.
And if so, Mrs May has done what she said no British prime minister would ever do.
She said no British PM would have an Irish Sea Customs border. Not no regulatory difference. Northern Ireland already has regulatory difference, not least its own legal system.
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.
Tgey do not have the numbers to topple May as Leader so it is all bravado
They have the numbers to topple May. What they do not have is the numbers to elect the right successor. Worse, their own two candidates, Boris and Davis, are busted flushes. From their point of view, Hunt, Javid or Hammond would be even worse than May, not least because they are more competent and less likely to crash out by mistake.
No they do not.
They need 160 Tory MPs to topple May. May got 165 Tory MPs in the first round alone in 2016 and only 120 Tory MPs even backed Leave
Not so. It took fewer to topple Thatcher.
Thatcher was facing further votes that she could not win. If May wins by one vote she's "safe" from a further internal party challenge for a year.
A Jo Johnson level or has it reached a Boris Johnson level ?
Looking in some detail at today's employment data it suggests that the minimum level of unemployment can only be fractionally below 4%.
Its noticeable that a slight increase in unemployment has happened at the same time as vacancies reaching another record high, redundancies reaching another record low and a continuing shift to full time, permanent employment from part-time, temporary and self-employment.
The problem is when there aren't enough people to fill all these vacancies and the competition leads to wage inflation and price inflation. That may already be happening in the south.
Comments
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?
Knowing Mrs May she'll spite me and call an election for Feb 14th.
JRM is simply defending his daddy’s honour.
She's actually daft enough to do it as well....
However glad that it looks like a deal has been done.
He failed to prosper becuase nobody could read his ransom notes.
Starmer,
Starmer, has led them into the lobby.
Not Hitler, and certainly not the Kaiser.
It looks more February 1974 than 1997 and the Tories won the popular vote and a majority in England in February 1974 and the subsequent Labour government was so bad the Tories were returned to power 5 years later and in power for 18 years
There are worse fates than a PM Corbyn with a minority government having to agree the Brexit Deal while the Tories rebuild in opposition
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-survey-one-in-ten-respondents-go-for-norway-to-canada-almost-half-want-canada-plus-plus-plus.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
And at least then the evenings were bright and the weather was nice.
So I say again - January election? What could possibly go wrong?
I'm sure they could live with that...
Your increasingly irrational devotion to them reminds me of those people who cling to minor variants in RCD as evidence the earth is 6,000 years old.
That's why I'm retired and not practising!
Many Labour MPs represent heavily leave voting constituencies, the deal means we leave which satisfies the referendum result. If the Tory right wing is seen to be defeated, that's a good result from their point of view as well.
If Brexit goes bad, most people will blame the Tory government and forget about which way their Labour MP voted, anyway a lot of Labour supporters still believe in the Tony Benn school of anti-EU ideology.
It makes some sense. Her party wants to diverge and the EU isn't keen on negotiating a close trading relationship at this stage. So don't include too much on the future relationship with GB (very divergent by default), keep NI closely aligned with the Republic and the EU and let the Irish Sea take the strain.
Of course it still leaves the actual end arrangement undefined - to be negotiated after we have left.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552
Indeed many Tories I know are increasingly relaxed about such a result then they can go into opposition led by Boris or another Leaver on a purer Brexit platform rather than being lumbered in government with a Deal many see as worthless or the consequences of No Deal.
Of course you forget May got the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 in 2017 and an almost identical share to the start of the campaign, all that happened was minor party voters moved to Labour
After 40 years, he felt he'd got it right at last.
If they believe a crap deal is worse than no deal (even if that is not a certainty) that's a decision reasonable people might make, but given they seem to be aiming for a GE or referendum, somehow, that doesn't appear to be the main calculation in any case.
My favourite dr/pharmacist story concerns one of each who were at loggerheads. One day a patient went into see the doctor.
'Dr, I've been to see the pharmacist..'
Interrupting
'And what did that fool you tell you to do!'
'Come and see you!'
I will never apologise for quoting ConHome
Downing Street has slapped down Penny Mordaunt for suggesting Britain should withdraw funding from Unesco, amid criticism of cabinet “freelancing”.
The international development secretary told cabinet colleagues last month that she wants Britain to withdraw from the UN’s cultural and education body.
They need 160 Tory MPs to topple May. May got 165 Tory MPs in the first round alone in 2016 and only 120 Tory MPs even backed Leave
They could be 2 - 0 up with 5 minutes to play and still lose. A cup final or semi final.
A Jo Johnson level or has it reached a Boris Johnson level ?
Looking in some detail at today's employment data it suggests that the minimum level of unemployment can only be fractionally below 4%.
Its noticeable that a slight increase in unemployment has happened at the same time as vacancies reaching another record high, redundancies reaching another record low and a continuing shift to full time, permanent employment from part-time, temporary and self-employment.
In any case I did not argue Corbyn would likely become PM it is just an argument of the margin.
PM Corbyn would of course then do an almost identical deal to May's anyway with the EU so the ERG still lose but Corbyn has the votes to get it through Parliament then if May cannot.
They would then try and rebuild in opposition under Boris
Doesn’t mean that they are not all out to get her.