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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public

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  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think I add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    You are TSE and i claim my £5
  • "Negotiations between the EU and UK on a withdrawal agreement are ongoing and have not concluded. Negotiators are still engaged and a number of issues are outstanding. We are not commenting further on leaks in the media."

    Not exactly a denial.
  • Scott_P said:
    Mentioning Davidson and Mundell, any news on the CFP in the draft deal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

    i.e. total capitulation.

    The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
    The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
    The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

    If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

    This is going to be bloody.

    Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.
    The UK ends freedom of movement without leaving the customs union.

    And they said it couldn't be done!!

    needless to say I do not agree with your assessment. not least because the backstop does not involve us paying for those things (although we will no doubt pay for things under the future partnership and other things generally)
    TBH I think it's best to study a document before leaping to conclusions.
    no no no much more fun this way

    Reading things THEN concluding on them is my day job
    Damn, I thought it was chasing hookah smoking caterpillars.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Popcorn alert level 2.

    Do try and pace yourself
    Luckily I didn't go straight to level 1.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    On that basis, how do you feel about adjectives?
  • Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?
  • Sky saying Varadkar has just announced negotiations are still ongoing.

    Ireland's deputy PM
  • "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think I add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    You are TSE and i claim my £5
    I'm much more subtle.
  • Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

    Theresa May?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Well, that "done deal" appears to have lasted a little over half an hour.

    That must be a record, guys!

  • I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    On that basis, how do you feel about adjectives?
    No problem but suggesting someone is euthanised is a step too far for me
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092


    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    On that basis, how do you feel about adjectives?
    Better than adverbs
  • Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

    That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Sky saying Varadkar has just announced negotiations are still ongoing.

    Little Leo's hotline to the EU suddenly gone dead? ;)
  • Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

    That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?
    First Minister out of Cabinet?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    edited November 2018

    Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

    That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?
    If I were her I'd make sure the doors between the cabinet room and the Downing Street front door are locked tomorrow to avoid anyone doing a Heseltine.
  • dixiedean said:

    Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

    That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?
    First Minister out of Cabinet?
    The main betfair market is whether we leave or not, where "no deal" counts as leave so no obvious deal/no deal choice.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529
    edited November 2018

    So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    That is just silly. She is the PM and how she presents this will matter to millions. I would also point out that she is far ahead of Corbyn and is well respected by many voters who recognise the poison chalice she inherited
    She didn't inherit the poison chalice - that sounds like she got lumped with sorting out Brexit. Rather, she sought it out like a politician version of Indiana Jones. I can have no sympathy for her making a dog's breakfast of the whole thing.
    Public opinion perceives TM as having a poisoned chalice
    Go with the Indiana Jones analogy. Has she picked up the chalice she thinks is the right one and has chosen poorly?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H3rdfI28s0
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    I wonder who'll be the first to break cover from the DUP or the ERG.
  • malcolmg said:
    you'd have said that even if they'd promised us the, well, promised land
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

    Come on now Big G, Westminster hacks LIVE for days like this !
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.
    G, no manners in today's world, all the decency of old is ignored. UK is an oafish selfish place nowadays.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Redwood. "We are numerous. We are of one mind."
    Surprised it adds up to that much TBH.
  • So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

    It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

    You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to
    Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.
    That is just silly. She is the PM and how she presents this will matter to millions. I would also point out that she is far ahead of Corbyn and is well respected by many voters who recognise the poison chalice she inherited
    She didn't inherit the poison chalice - that sounds like she got lumped with sorting out Brexit. Rather, she sought it out like a politician version of Indiana Jones. I can have no sympathy for her making a dog's breakfast of the whole thing.
    Public opinion perceives TM as having a poisoned chalice
    Go with the Indiana Jones analogy. Has she picked up the chalice she thinks is the right one and has chosen poorly?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H3rdfI28s0
    Could be both but I cannot see anyone else wanting to be in her position tonight
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    dixiedean said:

    Redwood. "We are numerous. We are of one mind."
    Surprised it adds up to that much TBH.

    the Brexit Buccaneers have one brain between the whole lot of 'em?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

    Come on now Big G, Westminster hacks LIVE for days like this !
    This is where one journalist guesses something and another journalist picks it up and embellishes it, and everyone believes that it shows what they want to believe, and then another journalist overhears some junior official and makes a story out of what he thought she said, and then another embellishes it further but adds that the Irish aren't on board, and PB gets terribly excited at each twist and turn in the speculation.
  • i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

    Who is Angela Leadsom?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    dixiedean said:

    Redwood. "We are numerous. We are of one mind."
    Surprised it adds up to that much TBH.

    They are the borg?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Scott_P said:
    Those two muppets will back pedal as fast as you like. Pair of chancers will not give up their place at the trough for principles. They just don a new set of principles, pair of chancers.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

    That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?
    If I were her I'd make sure the doors between the cabinet room and the Downing Street front door are locked tomorrow to avoid anyone doing a Heseltine.
    They could even do a 'double Heseltine' by walking out and saying to any journalists around
    'Vote Corbyn to stop Brexit'.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I wonder who'll be the first to break cover from the DUP or the ERG.

    the DUP is hard to bait into acting rashly. Similar with JRM. They will calculate their counterattack and strike only when it hits hardest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

    Come on now Big G, Westminster hacks LIVE for days like this !
    This is where one journalist guesses something and another journalist picks it up and embellishes it, and everyone believes that it shows what they want to believe, and then another journalist overhears some junior official and makes a story out of what he thought she said, and then another embellishes it further but adds that the Irish aren't on board, and PB gets terribly excited at each twist and turn in the speculation.
    Probably best to go with Tom Connelly rather than say Faisal Islam.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Race is on for the first cabinet minister to resign.

    Dominic Raab, cometh the hour, cometh the man. If you do the dirty on May tonight, you will be PM before christmas...

    David Mundell please.

    I win £610 if he does.
    LOL
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

    Who is Angela Leadsom?
    Andrea Merkel's brain damaged stepsister.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    dixiedean said:

    Redwood. "We are numerous. We are of one mind."
    Surprised it adds up to that much TBH.

    Between them?
  • This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?

    How many cabinet resignations can she survive?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Fenman said:

    dixiedean said:

    Redwood. "We are numerous. We are of one mind."
    Surprised it adds up to that much TBH.

    Between them?
    It is a very generous assessment. I'd say it's less of a "brain" and more a gelatinous aggregation of cells. Kinda like a jellyfish. Jexit means Jexit.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    I wonder who'll be the first to break cover from the DUP or the ERG.

    the DUP is hard to bait into acting rashly. Similar with JRM. They will calculate their counterattack and strike only when it hits hardest.
    True. Steve Baker, on the other hand, is a bit of a motormouth.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,745

    i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

    Who is Angela Leadsom?
    Well, as we all know, Andrea Leadsom is a mother...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Foxy said:

    i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

    Who is Angela Leadsom?
    Well, as we all know, Andrea Leadsom is a mother...
    https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 2018
    malcolmg said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.
    G, no manners in today's world, all the decency of old is ignored. UK is an oafish selfish place nowadays.
    Evening Malc.

    What a "too doo" isn't it? :D
  • i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

    Who is Angela Leadsom?
    Read dre for gel.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.
  • i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

    Who is Angela Leadsom?
    Read dre for gel.
    Doctor Dre?
  • Nothing is agreed until everybody is agreed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:
    For a document written on sheets of A4 in a hurricane.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.

    The time has been well spent, sharpening the pitchforks....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    dixiedean said:

    Redwood. "We are numerous. We are of one mind."
    Surprised it adds up to that much TBH.

    On 5live he has said that there are at least 51 MP's that committed to vote against Chequers and this is worse. Added he does not know of the number of Jo Johnsons that would vote against.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom may be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through after losing as rebels joined with Labour initially on an amendment vote. I expect May will also withdraw the whip from ERG rebels or EUref2 rebels as Major did from Maastricht rebels in 1993
  • Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.

    You are beginning to sound like your icon photo in an off-the-record moment...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

    Come on now Big G, Westminster hacks LIVE for days like this !
    Indeed
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

    I wouldn't believe a word of anything that comes out of anywhere tonight.

  • Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.

    I won't lie, this is giving me the horn.

    All we need now is an abdication crisis.
  • Scott_P said:
    If we are still in a customs union the Tories are f---ed.

    Really I don't buy this. How many voters give a tinker's for the ins and outs of customs unions. It is a Brexiteer fantasy that millions of voters yearn to do a free trade deal with the US.

    Now, if we still have FoM, that's another matter.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

    FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

    Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

    That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Meanwhile, George Osborne tucks into yet another frozen meal. Soon be enough space......
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So May has betrayed both remainers and leavers in a document they haven't seen yet ?


    No doubt.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    TGOHF said:

    So May has betrayed both remainers and leavers in a document they haven't seen yet ?


    No doubt.

    She has a unique and special talent for pleasing none of the people, none of the time. Perhaps we should cherish such a quirkily unusual lack of political talent.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.
    G, no manners in today's world, all the decency of old is ignored. UK is an oafish selfish place nowadays.
    Evening Malc.

    What a "too doo" isn't it? :D
    Evening Gin , it is indeed a right stramash and will be a rammy soon.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.

    Surely we have to go through at least three years of Jezza and Johnny Mac in Downing St before we progress to actual civil war? :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Anyone would think Mrs May is paranoid...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

    FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

    Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

    That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
    That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

    May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    So May has betrayed both remainers and leavers in a document they haven't seen yet ?


    No doubt.

    She has a unique and special talent for pleasing none of the people, none of the time. Perhaps we should cherish such a quirkily unusual lack of political talent.
    You've obviously read it - what are the highlights?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.

    The time has been well spent, sharpening the pitchforks....
    Tumbril wheels will be well oiled
  • I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.

    All they have to do is memorise the bit that sends them apoplectic and then tweet it later.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone would think Mrs May is paranoid...
    She has good reason to be.
  • I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.

    Well, half the commentariat, two thirds of politicians, and 98% of PB seem to have formed a view on the text without the inconvenience of having to actually read it, so leaks seem to be superfluous.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    GIN1138 said:

    Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.

    Surely we have to go through at least three years of Jezza and Johnny Mac in Downing St before we progress to actual civil war? :D
    This will look like the sunlit upland once that pair of plonkers get their grubby hands on the levers of power.
  • malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    "Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

    I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

    Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.
    You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary
    I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

    Also, you're too sensitive.

    If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?
    I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

    I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.
    G, no manners in today's world, all the decency of old is ignored. UK is an oafish selfish place nowadays.
    Evening Malc.

    What a "too doo" isn't it? :D
    Evening Gin , it is indeed a right stramash and will be a rammy soon.
    Now that is good Scots language I understand and agree.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

    FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

    Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

    That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
    That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

    May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position
    Except the VONC will happen first?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    malcolmg said:

    Guys, this is it.

    The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

    Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

    Finally.

    This was supposed to begin two months ago.

    The time has been well spent, sharpening the pitchforks....
    Tumbril wheels will be well oiled
    Aye, ne'er a squeak....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.

    Well, half the commentariat, two thirds of politicians, and 98% of PB seem to have formed a view on the text without the inconvenience of having to actually read it, so leaks seem to be superfluous.
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, has Rees Mogg read the document yet ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.

    Well, half the commentariat, two thirds of politicians, and 98% of PB seem to have formed a view on the text without the inconvenience of having to actually read it, so leaks seem to be superfluous.
    Scott_P said:
    Hold on, has Rees Mogg read the document yet ?
    Wanna guess?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.

    Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Scott_P said:
    And, he didn't even have to read it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

    FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

    Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

    That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
    That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

    May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position
    FTPA makes it much harder for Mrs May to turn this into a confidence vote than in Major's day.

    Like it can be a confidence vote in her, but the Prime Minister falling doesn't meant the government isn't secure.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.

    Calculating that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.

    Have there been suggestion she has?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:

    If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.

    Calculating that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.

    Have there been suggestion she has?
    A suggestion, but not a confirmation.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    And, he didn't even have to read it.
    Jacob is just *that* clever. Mind you, given May's form, I don't really need to read it either.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Joint ERG and DUP announcement?

    *imperial march starts playing*
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

    FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

    Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

    That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
    That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

    May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position
    Except the VONC will happen first?
    If May wins that as she almost certainly will she is safe for a year and cannot be challenged.

    Remember she only needs 50.01% of Tory MPs and 50.2% voted for her even in just the first round in 2016 and 60% in the second.

    Only 120 Tory MPs backed Leave
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

    FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

    Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

    That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
    That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

    May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position
    Except the VONC will happen first?
    If May wins that as she almost certainly will she is safe for a year and cannot be challenged.

    Remember she only needs 50.01% of Tory MPs and 50.2% voted for her even in just the first round in 2016 and 60% in the second.

    Only 120 Tory MPs backed Leave
    If Hunt and Javid don't both back her, she is toast.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

    May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

    FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

    Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

    That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
    That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

    May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position
    FTPA makes it much harder for Mrs May to turn this into a confidence vote than in Major's day.

    Like it can be a confidence vote in her, but the Prime Minister falling doesn't meant the government isn't secure.
    Unless 50%+ of Tory MPs no confidence her inevitably it will be a vote of no confidence in the government too
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