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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public

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  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    As far as I can see the only people who have slated the deal are the ones who have not read it yet
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Isn't it getting one? As for Parliament negotiating... that's the executive's prerogative.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    The UK cannot make the EU agree to anything it votes on, remember Jeremy? I guess the government could go back to the EU and try at least, but if the EU says no will that have made such votes not meaningful?

    This is one of those issues that seems even more obviously political than most issues.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
  • Scott_P said:
    Tonight David Davis, Boris Johnson, and Jacob Rees-Mogg have all reconfirmed that they are bigger c***s than Mark Reckless.
    Seconded.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Theo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    GB stays in rules like state aid, environmental protection and customs union. Stays out of most other areas.

    NI stays in the above plus goods regulation covered by GFA.

    State aid? no wonder Jezbollah can't agree.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    currystar said:

    As far as I can see the only people who have slated the deal are the ones who have not read it yet

    Most accurately we the people in that regard I have no doubt!

    When selling it to the electorate it doesn't really matter what is in it, clearly, it matters what people think of what they have heard of it, and if they believe, rightly or not, that someone else could have done better. Given people all over the spectrum will trash it, and the natural human assumption that the grass is always greener, I have zero doubt that most people will agree that it is a crap deal.

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    This one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/13/cabinet-members-called-in-to-sign-off-mays-brexit-deal ?

    Interestingly, the EU appear to have compromised on an independent body overseeing the backstop.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?

    EDIT: ok that's useful, thanks @RobD and @Big_G_NorthWales

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/13/cabinet-members-called-in-to-sign-off-mays-brexit-deal
  • RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    This one -- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/13/cabinet-members-called-in-to-sign-off-mays-brexit-deal ?

    Interestingly, the EU appear to have compromised on an independent body overseeing the backstop.
    Yes and the EU compromise is a big win for TM
  • GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
    Perhaps, but it is a hell of a risk - a deal could fail a referendum test.
    Mutually uncomfortable sounds like a reasonable compromise when neither side could possibly be happy at the end of the day. Can we tolerate it rather than like it being the question.

    Apparently the DUP cannot, so again, roll on a 2019 election, or just stop bringing legislation to the house I guess.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
    Perhaps, but it is a hell of a risk - a deal could fail a referendum test.
    In which case the public will have backed Remain.

    Theresa May can't lose from a referendum between the deal and Remain.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Others have declared themselves Self Employed but earn peanuts.

    Like teachers but with more job security?
    Teachers on just above the average salary, better than average pensions, once in place very hard to sack and with long holidays?

    It is not that bad in the classroom
    That's almost as wrong as your claims about ConHome.

    Edit - if it's that good, why aren't you a teacher?
    Why you still a teacher then?

    I did not say life as a teacher was perfect but they are hardly on zero hours contracts or minimum wage or unemployed even if doing supply.
    Yes they are on zero hours contracts if doing supply. It's try.
    Most peopleasy nor perfect but teachers who complain all the time often have gone straight from school to university then back to the classroom with no time in the world outside
    That
    Take your patronising, lying shit elsewhere. It's people like you who give Tories a bad name.
    Commute time is in the top 2 drawers for those becoming teachers

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/schoolsweek.co.uk/commuting-time-tops-list-of-what-attracts-teachers-to-job/amp/

    Academia still involves teaching and the civil service is still public sector, albeit you have done some self employed work.

    You can insult me if you wish, I did not insult you.

    All I said was there are worse jobs than teaching and provided some of the positives like long holidays and the pension, I did not say it was easy or perfect especially with disciplinary issues but like some teachers you seem to have an attitude that it is the worst job in the world and must be endlessly complained about
    For what it's worth, Mrs tpfkar is a teacher and is at a real low point at the moment, overworked and exhausted. she's finding that the workload expectations have gone up In terms of assessment points / reports for students, requirements for meeting special needs (huge increase in additional needs in classes) and more stressful internal teaching reviews. Some local issues - she doesn't get on with her head of department and feels she's been stitched up with difficult classes - but if this is indicative of wider picture, there's a recruitment and retention crisis coming fast. She's seriously thinking of getting out.


    On not unrelated news (and inspired by TSE) I quit my job today!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
    Perhaps, but it is a hell of a risk - a deal could fail a referendum test.
    In which case the public will have backed Remain.

    Theresa May can't lose from a referendum between the deal and Remain.
    Who says those will be the only options on the table?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    Scott_P said:
    Right. It would make more sense for them to say we aren't getting enough sovereignty back. We are getting it in services, immigration, justice and other non-economic matters but not goods.
    Indeed.

    And I wonder how many Leavers in the manufacturing sector are quite happy with the status quo on goods rather than having the likes of Boris negotiating new trade treaties.
    Except for a few exceptions, manufacturing is mainly not done globally. We sell a lot of cars to Europe but very few to the USA, which is just across the Atlantic.
    But Germany does sell lots of cars to the US.

    In any case, the automotive supply chain is global for some parts (typically compact and high value things), and is local for others (typically lower value add items).

    So, you'll find very body panels that are transported between continents, but a lot of auto semiconductors.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
    Perhaps, but it is a hell of a risk - a deal could fail a referendum test.
    In which case the public will have backed Remain.

    Theresa May can't lose from a referendum between the deal and Remain.
    Who says those will be the only options on the table?
    Theresa May.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
    Perhaps, but it is a hell of a risk - a deal could fail a referendum test.
    In which case the public will have backed Remain.

    Theresa May can't lose from a referendum between the deal and Remain.
    Who says those will be the only options on the table?
    Theresa May.
    And what she wants just sails through the Commons does it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
    Perhaps, but it is a hell of a risk - a deal could fail a referendum test.
    In which case the public will have backed Remain.

    Theresa May can't lose from a referendum between the deal and Remain.
    Who says those will be the only options on the table?
    Theresa May.
    And what she wants just sails through the Commons does it?
    Jeremy Corbyn would get lynched by his party if he blocked a deal v Remain referendum.
  • This could be where Labour truly blow their chance of winning the next election.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:
    The EU is a Eurozone club. If we ever rejoin, we'd better join the Euro or it would be pointless.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    Yeah thanks both.

    Sounds like it's going to be a soft-Brexit/BINO which respects the referendum (we will be leaving) but also avoids an economic crisis.

    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    I appreciate Labour want the opportunity to force a GE but really most Remainer and moderate Leaver MPs ought to support this deal if it's as the early leaks suggest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Scott_P said:
    Looks to me like she wanted to get into her house after a hard day's work.
  • NEW THREAD

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The fundamental question is whether, even thinking it is crap, the public will feel strongly enough that it should be approved anyway, and then if they will punish the party arranging the crap deal afterwards or not.

    This is why no matter what, the governing party has an interest in a second referendum. They need buy in from the people if they are to proceed any further with Brexit.
    Perhaps, but it is a hell of a risk - a deal could fail a referendum test.
    In which case the public will have backed Remain.

    Theresa May can't lose from a referendum between the deal and Remain.
    Who says those will be the only options on the table?
    Theresa May.
    Evidence?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    William shows they do think it would be deal vs remain, and the answer to the second question seems to be yes as well in any case, if Rochdale's comments are anything to go by (not sure if a second ref supporter or not) on the basis that the deal is still bad and Labour shouldn't vote for it, which by default increases likelihood of no deal.

    I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    tpfkar said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Teachers on just above the average salary, better than average pensions, once in place very hard to sack and with long holidays?

    It is not that bad in the classroom
    That's almost as wrong as your claims about ConHome.

    Edit - if it's that good, why aren't you a teacher?
    Why you still a teacher then?

    I did not say life as a teacher was perfect but they are hardly on zero hours contracts or minimum wage or unemployed even if doing supply.
    Yes they are on zero hours contracts if doing supply. It's try.
    Most peopleasy nor perfect but teachers who complain all the time often have gone straight from school to university then back to the classroom with no time in the world outside
    That
    Take your patronising, lying shit elsewhere. It's people like you who give Tories a bad name.
    Commute time is in the top 2 drawers for those becoming teachers

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/schoolsweek.co.uk/commuting-time-tops-list-of-what-attracts-teachers-to-job/amp/

    Academia still involves teaching and the civil service is still public sector, albeit you have done some self employed work.

    You can insult me if you wish, I did not insult you.

    All I said was there are worse jobs than teaching and provided some of the positives like long holidays and the pension, I did not say it was easy or perfect especially with disciplinary issues but like some teachers you seem to have an attitude that it is the worst job in the world and must be endlessly complained about
    For what it's worth, Mrs tpfkar is a teacher and is at a real low point at the moment, overworked and exhausted. she's finding that the workload expectations have gone up In terms of assessment points / reports for students, requirements for meeting special needs (huge increase in additional needs in classes) and more stressful internal teaching reviews. Some local issues - she doesn't get on with her head of department and feels she's been stitched up with difficult classes - but if this is indicative of wider picture, there's a recruitment and retention crisis coming fast. She's seriously thinking of getting out.


    On not unrelated news (and inspired by TSE) I quit my job today!
    Good luck with whatever you do next and sympathies to Mrs tpfkar - I've some friends who were teachers and I don't buy the 'short days and long holidays' yarn that non-teachers often spin about them. My friends worked bloody hard for a not very large reward.
This discussion has been closed.