politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid moves to second favourite to succeed Theresa May

Barnesian said:

Sudden move against the 2nd amendment being left unchanged.

RobD said:

Foxy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

GIN1138 said:

More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

http://www.latimes.com/

Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

[face-slow_handclap)

You can still see the New York Times, which suggests the story is litres about the new law and more about the hysterical reaction to it by some people (who possibly have an agenda).

Also US websites denying access doesn't exempt them from the GPDR it seems:

twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/999732448455024640?s=19

Why wouldn’t it? It only applies to users in the EU.

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

RoyalBlue said:

HYUFD said:

Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.

Equally, it could just be someone trying to ramp the Repeal vote.

I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.

Irish Times has an exit poll after polls close at 10pm and Late, Late Show has an exit poll at 11 30pm.

Main count tomorrow

What is the track record of Irish exit polls?

Irish Times is reasonably accurate apparently

Hmm. I'll have my Betfair account open for a rapid response at 10pm.

I'm on "amendment unchanged" at 8 but it has already moved out to 15. I think I'm on a loser.

surby said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/25/uk-economy-posts-worst-quarterly-gdp-figures-for-five-years

HYUFD used to give details of UK GDP growth before. Recently, he has stopped doing so. I thought I should plug this information gap.

Cyclefree said:

How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.

Did you get consent, guys?!

Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.

For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.

But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.

HYUFD said:

surby said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/25/uk-economy-posts-worst-quarterly-gdp-figures-for-five-years

HYUFD used to give details of UK GDP growth before. Recently, he has stopped doing so. I thought I should plug this information gap.

So the economy is still growing then? Even despite Brexit?

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

surby said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/25/uk-economy-posts-worst-quarterly-gdp-figures-for-five-years

HYUFD used to give details of UK GDP growth before. Recently, he has stopped doing so. I thought I should plug this information gap.

So the economy is still growing then? Even despite Brexit?

Only because of immigration... GDP per head shrunk by 0.1%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/januarytomarch2018/fecc6504.xls

RoyalBlue said:

Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

williamglenn said:

RoyalBlue said:

Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

Perhaps those are the circumstances in which the public can resolve the split in the Conservative party in the way Cameron intended them to in 2016? A second referendum that ends in a substantial win for Remain really would settle the issue.

RoyalBlue said:

I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.

This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

There are Twitter reports (yes, I know) of heavy voting in rural Irish areas. I pass on the information without opining on it.

It'd be an amazing statistical feat were the amendment to fail.

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Sean_F said:

RoyalBlue said:

HYUFD said:

Turnout may be lower than expected in Ireland's abortion referendum, if so depends if the pro life or pro choice side have got their voters out

https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1

I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.

Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.

Equally, it could just be someone trying to ramp the Repeal vote.

I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.

Irish Times has an exit poll after polls close at 10pm and Late, Late Show has an exit poll at 11 30pm.

Main count tomorrow

What is the track record of Irish exit polls?

Irish Times is reasonably accurate apparently

Hmm. I'll have my Betfair account open for a rapid response at 10pm.

I'm on "amendment unchanged" at 8 but it has already moved out to 15. I think I'm on a loser.

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

There are Twitter reports (yes, I know) of heavy voting in rural Irish areas. I pass on the information without opining on it.

It'd be an amazing statistical feat were the amendment to fail.

Gardenwalker said:

RoyalBlue said:

I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.

This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.

The thing is, this was broadly predictable.
Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.

Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.

We screwed the pooch.

RoyalBlue said:

Gardenwalker said:

RoyalBlue said:

I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.

This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.

The thing is, this was broadly predictable.
Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.

Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.

We screwed the pooch.

Michael Gove was simultaneously crucial in delivering the Leave vote, and in making delivery impossible by indirectly putting May in Number 10.

Cyclefree said:

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.

Did you get consent, guys?!

Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.

For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.

But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.

A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?

I was teasing!

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.

Did you get consent, guys?!

Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.

For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.

But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.

A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?

FF43 said:

Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.

Foxy said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

GIN1138 said:

More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US

http://www.latimes.com/

Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.

[face-slow_handclap)

You can still see the New York Times, which suggests the story is litres about the new law and more about the hysterical reaction to it by some people (who possibly have an agenda).

Also US websites denying access doesn't exempt them from the GPDR it seems:

twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/999732448455024640?s=19

Why wouldn’t it? It only applies to users in the EU.

Sorry, wrong link posted!

Blocking 500 Million Users Is Easier Than Complying With Europe’s New Rules https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-25/blocking-500-million-users-is-easier-than-complying-with-gdpr

Basically, they have to comply with data access requests on EU citizens, same as anybody else.

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.

Did you get consent, guys?!

Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.

For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.

But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.

A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?

You've got to admit, there's something a bit weird about keeping a list of the positions of PBers.

A bit weird compared with, say, spending endless hours arguing with other anaoraks about Brexit or the state of the government, in the full knowledge that no one will ever change their mind?

Cyclefree said:

Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.

BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.

This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

RoyalBlue said:

I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.

This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.

The thing is, this was broadly predictable.
Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.

Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.

We screwed the pooch.

"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."

Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)

Benpointer said:

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.

Did you get consent, guys?!

Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.

For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.

But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.

A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?

You've got to admit, there's something a bit weird about keeping a list of the positions of PBers.

A bit weird compared with, say, spending endless hours arguing with other anaoraks about Brexit or the state of the government, in the full knowledge that no one will ever change their mind?

Cyclefree said:

Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.

BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.

Barnesian said:

Right. I'm off to watch Saga for an hour. Then the exit poll.

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

RoyalBlue said:

I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.

This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.

The thing is, this was broadly predictable.
Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.

Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.

We screwed the pooch.

"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."

Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)

There were a number of probabilities stemming from a Brexit win. In my view, the probability of a scenario like the one Royal Blue paints was always very high. It’s one of the reasons I voted Remain.

and the 'Bayesian' ?

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.

BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.

Mixed fortunes for me. My dicentra is spectacular, but my gooseberries have the grey mildew, so will be spoiled.

Barnesian said:

Right. I'm off to watch Saga for an hour. Then the exit poll.

FF43 said:

Benpointer said:

FF43 said:

Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.

I take you were a Remain voter FF43? I can't see you on Pulpstar's list yet.

I did vote Remain, but I don't think voting Leave was stupid or wrong. I do think a referendum is a stupid way to make these decisions, regardless of the outcome.

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

I can confirm that I did indeed vote - LEAVE

But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER

I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,

I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....

rpjs said:

Gardenwalker said:

RoyalBlue said:

I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.

This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.

The thing is, this was broadly predictable.
Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.

Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.

We screwed the pooch.

The referendum was solely about settling, for a generation or two, the fundamental split in the Conservative party, that ultimately was threatening to destroy it. The problem was though, that the only result that could have actually delivered that result was a Remain vote strong enough to silence the eurosceptics for good. The Conservative party is doomed.

Hooray!

RobD said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.

This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...

Didn't one of the security services do something similar?

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.

@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.

Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.

RoyalBlue said:

Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.

Fingers crossed!

Gardenwalker said:

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

Omnium said:

Gardenwalker said:

RoyalBlue said:

I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.

This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.

The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.

The thing is, this was broadly predictable.
Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.

Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.

We screwed the pooch.

"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."

Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)

There were a number of probabilities stemming from a Brexit win. In my view, the probability of a scenario like the one Royal Blue paints was always very high. It’s one of the reasons I voted Remain.

and the 'Bayesian' ?

Simply, that if there are a number of different possible outcomes stemming from an event, that these outcomes, weighted by expected likelihood, can be termed “probabilities”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability

Casino_Royale said:

... I just won £340 betting on Chelsy Davy and Cressida Davis to attend Harry’s wedding....

Sean_F said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.

@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.

Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.

I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

... I just won £340 betting on Chelsy Davy and Cressida Davis to attend Harry’s wedding....

How. The. Absolute. Fuck. Did. You. Predict. That?

Pulpstar said:

kyf_100 said:

Sean_F said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.

@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.

Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.

I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.

Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.

The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...

The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

RoyalBlue said:

Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.

Fingers crossed!

Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.

If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.

I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.

Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.

(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)

Michael Collins was ambushed and killed by more radical 32 Counties Nationalists shortly after. Maybe that is why May is tentative about the poisoned chalice of Brexit.

Pulpstar said:

kyf_100 said:

Sean_F said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.

@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.

Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.

I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.

Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.

The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...

The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.

Pulpstar said:

kyf_100 said:

Sean_F said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.

@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.

Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.

I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.

Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.

The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...

The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.