More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US
You can still see the New York Times, which suggests the story is litres about the new law and more about the hysterical reaction to it by some people (who possibly have an agenda).
Also US websites denying access doesn't exempt them from the GPDR it seems:
I don’t think that bodes well for the repeal campaign.
Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
Equally, it could just be someone trying to ramp the Repeal vote.
I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.
Irish Times has an exit poll after polls close at 10pm and Late, Late Show has an exit poll at 11 30pm.
Main count tomorrow
What is the track record of Irish exit polls?
Irish Times is reasonably accurate apparently
Hmm. I'll have my Betfair account open for a rapid response at 10pm.
I'm on "amendment unchanged" at 8 but it has already moved out to 15. I think I'm on a loser.
It may be more difficult to get an accurate exit poll for this referendum than Irish general elections though, especially if there are silent Nos.
If Yes have a big lead on the exit poll then they have likely won clearly but if Yes only have a narrow lead it could be close when the main count comes in tomorrow
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
I've been sceptical of this sort of thing ever since I was asked to deliver a PRE-PRINTED leaflet to supporters saying than "early returns show a close race".
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
I've been sceptical of this sort of thing ever since I was asked to deliver a PRE-PRINTED leaflet to supporters saying than "early returns show a close race".
Did you decline?
I think I would have done so, but in the heat of battle, who knows.
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
"A measured and intelligent post as ever CycleFree." You are posting personal information about CycleFree. Have you got her formal consent?
Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
Perhaps those are the circumstances in which the public can resolve the split in the Conservative party in the way Cameron intended them to in 2016? A second referendum that ends in a substantial win for Remain really would settle the issue.
Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
Perhaps those are the circumstances in which the public can resolve the split in the Conservative party in the way Cameron intended them to in 2016? A second referendum that ends in a substantial win for Remain really would settle the issue.
I don't think it would. I think and hope it would see the rise of UKIP Mark 2 which would split the right wing vote and allow Corbyn to implement his magic.
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
Michael Gove was simultaneously crucial in delivering the Leave vote, and in making delivery impossible by indirectly putting May in Number 10.
There are Twitter reports (yes, I know) of heavy voting in rural Irish areas. I pass on the information without opining on it.
It'd be an amazing statistical feat were the amendment to fail.
I stuck a fiver on at lunchtime purely based on the notion that a) the failure to win the referendum on gay marriage three years ago may mobilise and solidify the "no/unchanged" vote and b) some of the very in-your-face posts I saw on FB/Twitter for "yes" gave me such a sense of deja vu from the Brexit and Trump campaigns that I felt certain there would be a shy no vote in play.
I still expect to lose my fiver, but it may be worth topping up given the odds. Stranger things have happened.
Terrific that Brexit inspired immigration has been the trigger for this growth.
Can someone add Omnium to the Leave list please?
and quite correctly I should be added. I'd also cough and splutter my way through a statement like "it's terrific that the country has felt inspired by Corbyn becoming PM, and that has been the trigger for this growth"
If we collectively have chosen to do something and it has lead to some sort of self-reinforcement of confidence in 'us' then I'm all for it. (Cheering reserved for the somethings that I thought were wise in the first place though)
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
The referendum was solely about settling, for a generation or two, the fundamental split in the Conservative party, that ultimately was threatening to destroy it. The problem was though, that the only result that could have actually delivered that result was a Remain vote strong enough to silence the eurosceptics for good. The Conservative party is doomed.
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
Michael Gove was simultaneously crucial in delivering the Leave vote, and in making delivery impossible by indirectly putting May in Number 10.
Do you think it would have gone better with Boris Johnson in charge?
Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
The referendum was solely about settling, for a generation or two, the fundamental split in the Conservative party, that ultimately was threatening to destroy it. The problem was though, that the only result that could have actually delivered that result was a Remain vote strong enough to silence the eurosceptics for good. The Conservative party is doomed.
Hooray!
Wrong on both counts, had Remain won by a big margin UKIP would still have been a presence and the more centrist wing of Labour would have been strengthened.
As it is the 42% the Tories got at the last general election was the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since 1983
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
You've got to admit, there's something a bit weird about keeping a list of the positions of PBers.
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.
I take you were a Remain voter FF43? I can't see you on Pulpstar's list yet.
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."
Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)
More wonderful ideas form the EU - My email inbox has been filled up with "privacy" nonsense all week and now EU citizens are unable to access some large websites in US
You can still see the New York Times, which suggests the story is litres about the new law and more about the hysterical reaction to it by some people (who possibly have an agenda).
Also US websites denying access doesn't exempt them from the GPDR it seems:
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
You've got to admit, there's something a bit weird about keeping a list of the positions of PBers.
A bit weird compared with, say, spending endless hours arguing with other anaoraks about Brexit or the state of the government, in the full knowledge that no one will ever change their mind?
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
You've got to admit, there's something a bit weird about keeping a list of the positions of PBers.
A bit weird compared with, say, spending endless hours arguing with other anaoraks about Brexit or the state of the government, in the full knowledge that no one will ever change their mind?
That's fun. Maintaining lists of people of different political viewpoints is a bit different.
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
The referendum was solely about settling, for a generation or two, the fundamental split in the Conservative party, that ultimately was threatening to destroy it. The problem was though, that the only result that could have actually delivered that result was a Remain vote strong enough to silence the eurosceptics for good. The Conservative party is doomed.
Hooray!
Wrong on both counts, had Remain won by a big margin UKIP would still have been a presence and the more centrist wing of Labour would have been strengthened.
As it is the 42% the Tories got at the last general election was the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since 1983
Alternatively, if the tory Party was split, shall we say 50:50, then to get a result of 48:52 the rest of the country is just as split.
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.
This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...
Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.
This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...
Didn't one of the security services do something similar?
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
The referendum was solely about settling, for a generation or two, the fundamental split in the Conservative party, that ultimately was threatening to destroy it. The problem was though, that the only result that could have actually delivered that result was a Remain vote strong enough to silence the eurosceptics for good. The Conservative party is doomed.
Hooray!
Wrong on both counts, had Remain won by a big margin UKIP would still have been a presence and the more centrist wing of Labour would have been strengthened.
As it is the 42% the Tories got at the last general election was the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since 1983
Alternatively, if the tory Party was split, shall we say 50:50, then to get a result of 48:52 the rest of the country is just as split.
Indeed and it was actually the Labour Party which was arguably most split of all, a majority of Labour voters voted Remain but a majority of Labour seats voted Leave.
By contrast a majority of Tory and UKIP voters and seats in 2016 voted Leave and a majority of LD, SNP and Green voters and seats voted Remain.
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."
Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)
There were a number of probabilities stemming from a Brexit win. In my view, the probability of a scenario like the one Royal Blue paints was always very high. It’s one of the reasons I voted Remain.
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."
Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)
There were a number of probabilities stemming from a Brexit win. In my view, the probability of a scenario like the one Royal Blue paints was always very high. It’s one of the reasons I voted Remain.
How ironic that on the day the GDPR comes into force PB spends the afternoon compliling lists of Leavers and Remainers.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
A measured and intellengent post as ever CycleFree... but I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek re GDPR and a list of PB Leavers/Remainers? I surely can't be illegal to compile a list of information people have posted on here?
You've got to admit, there's something a bit weird about keeping a list of the positions of PBers.
A bit weird compared with, say, spending endless hours arguing with other anaoraks about Brexit or the state of the government, in the full knowledge that no one will ever change their mind?
People do change their minds, albeit rarely. And frankly, the aggression of some is useful for waverers to help maintain their positions.
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Mixed fortunes for me. My dicentra is spectacular, but my gooseberries have the grey mildew, so will be spoiled.
Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.
This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...
Didn't one of the security services do something similar?
I've absolutely no idea. Although I'd have expected them to hide something a little more discreetly than just a keypress away.
Meanwhile, whilst adding the GDPR loveliness I've managed to break something on my 'site so that adverts no longer reliably display. Grrrr...
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Mixed fortunes for me. My dicentra is spectacular, but my gooseberries have the grey mildew, so will be spoiled.
Asparagus every day now for us - it's the 5th year since we planted them and they are really producing well. Yum-yum!
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."
Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)
There were a number of probabilities stemming from a Brexit win. In my view, the probability of a scenario like the one Royal Blue paints was always very high. It’s one of the reasons I voted Remain.
and the 'Bayesian' ?
Simply, that if there are a number of different possible outcomes stemming from an event, that these outcomes, weighted by expected likelihood, can be termed “probabilities”.
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Mixed fortunes for me. My dicentra is spectacular, but my gooseberries have the grey mildew, so will be spoiled.
Our bearded iris has gone absolutely gangbusters in the last fortnight !
Leadership of the Commission - "a fascist cabal" Michel Barnier - "neither very intelligent or very experienced" Juncker and Selmayr - "morally and intellectually unfit to hold any sort of public office" Lord Kerr - "a Blairite stooge"
It must be tough to share a planet withd people who are so markedly inferior to you.
You wouldn't of course know. But then you are one of the people I was referring to.
Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.
I take you were a Remain voter FF43? I can't see you on Pulpstar's list yet.
I did vote Remain, but I don't think voting Leave was stupid or wrong. I do think a referendum is a stupid way to make these decisions, regardless of the outcome.
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Mixed fortunes for me. My dicentra is spectacular, but my gooseberries have the grey mildew, so will be spoiled.
Our bearded iris has gone absolutely gangbusters in the last fortnight !
Clearly the transitioning of your transgender relative is not progressing well. Best wishes to Iris in the future.
Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.
I take you were a Remain voter FF43? I can't see you on Pulpstar's list yet.
I did vote Remain, but I don't think voting Leave was stupid or wrong. I do think a referendum is a stupid way to make these decisions, regardless of the outcome.
Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.
I take you were a Remain voter FF43? I can't see you on Pulpstar's list yet.
I did vote Remain, but I don't think voting Leave was stupid or wrong. I do think a referendum is a stupid way to make these decisions, regardless of the outcome.
I think that Alex Salmond had a very good point when he said on the night that a referendum should only be held when a change is proposed, not to endorse the status quo.
I *think* I understand that he should be more like a 1.02 shot (He's been approved by Matarella) at this stage but at am at the limit of what I'd be comfortable to lose on a market involving Italian politics. The only sticking block in his cabinet seems to be the economy minister in all honesty now.
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....
You'd better let Pulpstar know, he's got you down as a Remainer!
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....
As a Jacobite you can't endorse the regime in any way?
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
The referendum was solely about settling, for a generation or two, the fundamental split in the Conservative party, that ultimately was threatening to destroy it. The problem was though, that the only result that could have actually delivered that result was a Remain vote strong enough to silence the eurosceptics for good. The Conservative party is doomed.
Hooray!
I think that's based on a misapprehension that the purpose of the Tory party is to represent the interests of the City and multinationals in the UK. whereas, from 1964 onwards, the Conservatives have increasingly come to represent the interests of Provincial England, and to a lesser extent, Provincial Wales and Scotland, in the UK. Voters in those places are pretty happy about Brexit.
Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.
This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...
Didn't one of the security services do something similar?
The 2000 website for Al Gore for President had a joke in the source code comments, something along the lines of [chevron]!-- al-gore-ithm --[chevron]
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
Thanks but I wouldn’t be too jealous. I suspect I’m about to lose £25.
But I feel ok about it as I just won £340 betting on Chelsy Davy and Cressida Davis to attend Harry’s wedding. So swings and roundabouts.
Brexit is turning out the way it has to turn out because (a) the EU will never change anything to accommodate a country that rejects its membership, nor can it be expected to do so; (b) the UK needs a close relationship with the EU, which necessarily is on their terms. If you vote Leave to get £350 million a week for the NHS, or a similar reason, by implication you are voting for Brexit in Name Only. But BINO isn't an available option. The options are isolation or client state or a combination of the two. Neither is a sustainable outcome, yet it has to be one or both of those. That's the Brexit contradiction.
I take you were a Remain voter FF43? I can't see you on Pulpstar's list yet.
I did vote Remain, but I don't think voting Leave was stupid or wrong. I do think a referendum is a stupid way to make these decisions, regardless of the outcome.
Even the 1975 one ?
I am reading this very good book on the 75 referendum:
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
I voted Leave twice, but it is with an increasingly heavy heart. The relentless incomprehension of the EU’s stance, by Leavers and Remainers alike, makes me feel that the negotiations are headed for collapse. Theresa May said “Brexit means Brexit”, but then refuses to make the civil service conduct meaningful preparation for what that entails, or level with the public about short-term costs. The EU has no incentive to cave in to our unrealistic demands.
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is, this was broadly predictable. Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
"Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability."
Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)
There were a number of probabilities stemming from a Brexit win. In my view, the probability of a scenario like the one Royal Blue paints was always very high. It’s one of the reasons I voted Remain.
and the 'Bayesian' ?
Simply, that if there are a number of different possible outcomes stemming from an event, that these outcomes, weighted by expected likelihood, can be termed “probabilities”.
Actually you followed no such approach - it'd be financial suicide to do so, although a more modern conclusion would simply leave you as 'no bet'. You guessed. That's fine, I'd have guessed in the circumstances too (and did). Laplace might have had something to say to help you.
Most political betting consists of ridiculously unhelpful stats, entirely opaque, but overwhelming local info, and just plain old hunches.
If you are actually interested in the ideas of the Bayesian interpretation of statistics, or the alternatives then I'd highly recommend the works or ET Jaynes. It's brilliant stuff, but I'm far from being able to understand or critique it to any extent whatsoever.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.
Methodology is outlined here (assuming there isn't more than one exit poll):
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Michael Collins was ambushed and killed by more radical 32 Counties Nationalists shortly after. Maybe that is why May is tentative about the poisoned chalice of Brexit.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Michael Collins was ambushed and killed by more radical 32 Counties Nationalists shortly after. Maybe that is why May is tentative about the poisoned chalice of Brexit.
It was an accident rather than an ambush.
And that paved the way for the succession of William Cosgrave, who was arguably the best and most successful leader of the interwar period.
Unsurprisingly, this has left disgruntled passengers at the big stations of Luton and Bedford complaining about their downgraded experience (typically 11 minute longer journeys and having to travel on Thameslink) to MPs and local councils, who then started campaigning for the removal of stops of the Thameslink services to DfT, and then a second group of disgruntled users at smaller station complaining to the same MPs and local councils that they now had poorer train service than promised.
Some EMT users who live north of Bedford will now find themselves cut off from Bedford at peak times and having to use a rail replacement bus that takes significantly longer instead. To add injury to insult, one critical group of these users happen to be Thameslink drivers based at Bedford. It is perhaps unsurprising that some of these have been delighted to help EMT address their own increased driver requirement and remove their own issue of great difficulty getting to Bedford for work at certain times by switching TOC. This in itself then contributes to GTR’s driver recruitment and training issues yet again.
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.
The exit poll is being conducted by Ipsos/MRBI among 4,000 respondents at 160 polling stations in every constituency. Interviewing began at 7am on Friday as the first voters went to the polls, and continued throughout the day. Interviewing will also continue throughout the evening as voters cast their ballots.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I wobbled slightly because losing Cameron and Osborne seemed a high price to pay. It was nice to have smart and competent people in charge for a change. Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
Comments
I'm on "amendment unchanged" at 8 but it has already moved out to 15. I think I'm on a loser.
Blocking 500 Million Users Is Easier Than Complying With Europe’s New Rules https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-25/blocking-500-million-users-is-easier-than-complying-with-gdpr
Basically, they have to comply with data access requests on EU citizens, same as anybody else.
If Yes have a big lead on the exit poll then they have likely won clearly but if Yes only have a narrow lead it could be close when the main count comes in tomorrow
HYUFD used to give details of UK GDP growth before. Recently, he has stopped doing so. I thought I should plug this information gap.
Did you get consent, guys?!
Oh and @Apocalypse I have never revealed my vote, mainly because I have loathed the way people have insulted each other and dismissed peoples’ views and got quite unpleasant and nasty about the referendum.
For me it was a very difficult decision: head vs heart. I do not think much of the EU and thought the reaction to a Leave vote would be different, both on the EU and British side. I was wrong. You can read my thoughts in various thread headers. I certainly think the way the government has dealt with it has been beyond abysmal. It is quite shaming. Frankly, given the way things are going we may as well stay in - though that raises serious issues about our democracy. So we are stuck in a situation we should never have been in had we had more talented and thoughtful politicians.
But this referendum has not resolved the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU, which is a great pity. So this neuralgic issue will continue to be a key issue in British politics for years to come.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/grossdomesticproductpreliminaryestimate/januarytomarch2018/fecc6504.xls
This means that the deal presented in October will be viewed by many as our Treaty of Versailles. The analogy is valid in some respects, as it will be 1) terms dictated by a vastly more powerful actor that constrain our sovereignty, and 2) still better to accept, from an economic perspective, than to refuse. Short of a miracle, the domestic political consequences will be catastrophic, as the Tory Party will be riven with division and many voters will feel betrayed.
The way will have been paved for Jeremy Corbyn.
I think I would have done so, but in the heat of battle, who knows.
Or at least, from a Bayesian perspective, it was a leading probability.
Apart from the pros and cons of EU membership itself, Brexit was a massive gamble.
We screwed the pooch.
Honestly - seeing as I work in a business to business enviroment I haven't got involved in one jot of it.
Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
I still expect to lose my fiver, but it may be worth topping up given the odds. Stranger things have happened.
If we collectively have chosen to do something and it has lead to some sort of self-reinforcement of confidence in 'us' then I'm all for it. (Cheering reserved for the somethings that I thought were wise in the first place though)
Hooray!
As it is the 42% the Tories got at the last general election was the highest Tory voteshare at a general election since 1983
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Please do explain. (You are bordering on talking nonsense in the above)
Edit: Ah, they are referring to existing data. Good point - although they could simply nuke all data that came from an EU IP address.
Well done you.
Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.
This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...
By contrast a majority of Tory and UKIP voters and seats in 2016 voted Leave and a majority of LD, SNP and Green voters and seats voted Remain.
Meanwhile, whilst adding the GDPR loveliness I've managed to break something on my 'site so that adverts no longer reliably display. Grrrr...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability
Would royally piss off the Labour Party. Tick.
Not Boris. Tick.
Yep, this could work.
Is that a holiday for people who are not really that old at all, really?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.130642959.
I *think* I understand that he should be more like a 1.02 shot (He's been approved by Matarella) at this stage but at am at the limit of what I'd be comfortable to lose on a market involving Italian politics. The only sticking block in his cabinet seems to be the economy minister in all honesty now.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Fingers crossed!
Pause.
Well, it was hysterical at the time...
A Known unknown
But I feel ok about it as I just won £340 betting on Chelsy Davy and Cressida Davis to attend Harry’s wedding. So swings and roundabouts.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/mar/29/yes-to-europe-robert-saunders-review-tony-benn-vote-leave
A year before, Leave was solidly ahead, and the campaign swung heavily to stay in. Nonetheless not a very good way of deciding complex issues.
Actually you followed no such approach - it'd be financial suicide to do so, although a more modern conclusion would simply leave you as 'no bet'. You guessed. That's fine, I'd have guessed in the circumstances too (and did). Laplace might have had something to say to help you.
Most political betting consists of ridiculously unhelpful stats, entirely opaque, but overwhelming local info, and just plain old hunches.
If you are actually interested in the ideas of the Bayesian interpretation of statistics, or the alternatives then I'd highly recommend the works or ET Jaynes. It's brilliant stuff, but I'm far from being able to understand or critique it to any extent whatsoever.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-exit-poll-to-give-projected-abortion-referendum-result-tonight-1.3508503
And that paved the way for the succession of William Cosgrave, who was arguably the best and most successful leader of the interwar period.
Unsurprisingly, this has left disgruntled passengers at the big stations of Luton and Bedford complaining about their downgraded experience (typically 11 minute longer journeys and having to travel on Thameslink) to MPs and local councils, who then started campaigning for the removal of stops of the Thameslink services to DfT, and then a second group of disgruntled users at smaller station complaining to the same MPs and local councils that they now had poorer train service than promised.
Some EMT users who live north of Bedford will now find themselves cut off from Bedford at peak times and having to use a rail replacement bus that takes significantly longer instead. To add injury to insult, one critical group of these users happen to be Thameslink drivers based at Bedford. It is perhaps unsurprising that some of these have been delighted to help EMT address their own increased driver requirement and remove their own issue of great difficulty getting to Bedford for work at certain times by switching TOC. This in itself then contributes to GTR’s driver recruitment and training issues yet again.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-exit-poll-to-give-projected-abortion-referendum-result-tonight-1.3508503
The exit poll is being conducted by Ipsos/MRBI among 4,000 respondents at 160 polling stations in every constituency. Interviewing began at 7am on Friday as the first voters went to the polls, and continued throughout the day. Interviewing will also continue throughout the evening as voters cast their ballots.