The critical thing is, how is the exit poll conducted. If it is sampling then it'll be spot on. If it is by ballot duplication/asking (Particularly asking) then there could be a shy pro-life effect.
Methodology is outlined here (assuming there isn't more than one exit poll):
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
I decided not to bet, because the likely outcome turns my stomach (I know this is totally irrational).
‘I was so against persecution of homosexuals, I had to be forced to accept a 20k fee from the propaganda station of a regime that hangs them’ Jeremy Corbyn.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....
You'd better let Pulpstar know, he's got you down as a Remainer!
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....
As a Jacobite you can't endorse the regime in any way?
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I appear on neither listing .... for a very sound reason ....
I'm really not sure how you voted Jack !
A Known unknown
When possible I've always voted in person, even when not convenient. Something of a shibboleth - the actual physical embodiment of the role of the voter in our democracy.
I was much conflicted as to my vote and realized it was one of those occasions when the decision would be made in the polling booth. However I had been quite ill in the weeks leading to the vote and Mrs JackW threatened all sorts of vile retribution (pineapple pizza, replays of Dianne Abbott speeches !!) should I step foot outside of the home - She won ... no change there then ....
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
He could have said a Yes result would be the signal for a debate on how to change the law. Instead he took a leaf out of the unsuccessful republican campaigners' book in Australia in 1999: offer a package that many of those who agree in principle that there's a need for change will find such a turnoff, and they will think you're such a railroader, that they'll vote for the status quo.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Michael Collins was ambushed and killed by more radical 32 Counties Nationalists shortly after. Maybe that is why May is tentative about the poisoned chalice of Brexit.
It was an accident rather than an ambush.
And that paved the way for the succession of William Cosgrave, who was arguably the best and most successful leader of the interwar period.
The accounts that I have read speak of an ambush by 6 Anti Treaty irregulars, and Collins shot in the head when returning fire. Why do you say it was an accident?
That doesn’t mean it’s not a good value loser. I’d have No at 3/1 or even 2/1. Not 7/1 yet alone 14/1.
@Casino_Royale . I did not do a workup on the abortion referendum due to time constraints (broadly, looking at previous referenda in the past of Ireland, and present referenda in similar countries). So I cannot credibly advise you one way or another. I do note however that a) polling 55% or less for constitutional change in a referendum is not enough to reasonably guarantee success, and b) the Irish have form on this, see this for a recent example of a 55% poll losing on the day. Given that and the emotiveness of the vote I would not be surprised if No won. So good luck, and tomorrow we'll find out if your gamble pays off.
Oh, and congrats on doing what this site should be about. If memory served this is the first time you have gambled on an election that I have not. So I am jealous.
I think No will lose, but agree the odds should be shorter.
Agreed, am now on no for a tenner for that reason. Funnily enough, it's the first time I've put a bet on an outcome that actually turns my stomach, and I backed Trump for a sizeable amount in 2016.
The question is, will the exit poll show the race is closer than expected and in which case would I be better off cashing out (on the assumption that "no" will still lose, but by a slimmer margin), or letting it ride...
I decided not to bet, because the likely outcome turns my stomach (I know this is totally irrational).
I think I'm the only person here who has a tenner on "Change" at the grand odds of 3-20..
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Top boasting
Well done you.
Excellent gardening.
I have several hundreds of roses flowering. However, they are not in my garden!
Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.
This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...
Didn't one of the security services do something similar?
Bletchley Park recruited people who could do a difficult Daily Telegraph crossword.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
He could have said a Yes result would be the signal for a debate on how to change the law. Instead he took a leaf out of the unsuccessful republican campaigners' book in Australia in 1999: offer a package that many of those who agree in principle that there's a need for change will find such a turnoff, and they will think you're such a railroader, that they'll vote for the status quo.
I thought the Republican movement was outmanoeuvred by John Howard, who as a monarchist let the referendum go forward knowing full well nobody would accept the model he insisted would replace it.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Michael Collins was ambushed and killed by more radical 32 Counties Nationalists shortly after. Maybe that is why May is tentative about the poisoned chalice of Brexit.
It was an accident rather than an ambush.
And that paved the way for the succession of William Cosgrave, who was arguably the best and most successful leader of the interwar period.
The accounts that I have read speak of an ambush by 6 Anti Treaty irregulars, and Collins shot in the head when returning fire. Why do you say it was an accident?
Because they weren't targeting him. Rather he was in the wrong place at the wrong time. From that point of view it wasn't exactly an ambush.
Just noticed something cool. Go to news.bbc.co.uk/, press F12 in your favourite browser (PC based) to bring up debug, and go to the console. The BBC have an ad for web designers there.
This is where someone'll tell me that companies have been doing this for yonks ...
Didn't one of the security services do something similar?
Bletchley Park recruited people who could do a difficult Daily Telegraph crossword.
Desert Island Discs this morning had Dr Sue Black. A different Dr Sue Black from the pathologist but equally interesting. She had a very messy background and did really good work helping to save Bletchley Park. Her music was more my sons taste than mine but well worth a listen.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
He could have said a Yes result would be the signal for a debate on how to change the law. Instead he took a leaf out of the unsuccessful republican campaigners' book in Australia in 1999: offer a package that many of those who agree in principle that there's a need for change will find such a turnoff, and they will think you're such a railroader, that they'll vote for the status quo.
I thought the Republican movement was outmanoeuvred by John Howard, who as a monarchist let the referendum go forward knowing full well nobody would accept the model he insisted would replace it.
Yes, that's a much better way of describing it than my woeful attempt. As a result of Howard's insistence, the republican movement was split and some leading figures in it such as Phil Cleary advocated a No vote. If the republican option had been simply "abolish the monarchy and move to a republican form of government" it would have won by a landslide.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Michael Collins was ambushed and killed by more radical 32 Counties Nationalists shortly after. Maybe that is why May is tentative about the poisoned chalice of Brexit.
It was an accident rather than an ambush.
And that paved the way for the succession of William Cosgrave, who was arguably the best and most successful leader of the interwar period.
The accounts that I have read speak of an ambush by 6 Anti Treaty irregulars, and Collins shot in the head when returning fire. Why do you say it was an accident?
Because they weren't targeting him. Rather he was in the wrong place at the wrong time. From that point of view it wasn't exactly an ambush.
An opportunistic ambush, but after several previous assasination attempts. Nonetheless an appropriate analogy of why May does not want to sup from that cup. She will continue with #cakeism as long as she can, but that Brexit clock is running down...
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Michael Collins was ambushed and killed by more radical 32 Counties Nationalists shortly after. Maybe that is why May is tentative about the poisoned chalice of Brexit.
It was an accident rather than an ambush.
And that paved the way for the succession of William Cosgrave, who was arguably the best and most successful leader of the interwar period.
The accounts that I have read speak of an ambush by 6 Anti Treaty irregulars, and Collins shot in the head when returning fire. Why do you say it was an accident?
Because they weren't targeting him. Rather he was in the wrong place at the wrong time. From that point of view it wasn't exactly an ambush.
An opportunistic ambush, but after several previous assasination attempts. Nonetheless an appropriate of why May does not want to sup from that cup. She will continue with #cakeism as long as she can, but that clock is running down...
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
Mrs JackW threatened all sorts of vile retribution (pineapple pizza, replays of Dianne Abbott speeches !!) should I step foot outside of the home
Your Grace, as a man who even voted in a parish council election where I was the only voter all day, I think you made the right call here.
The pineapple on pizza is bad enough but the speeches - dear God, how could anyone be that cruel?
It's kind of you to elevate this humble husband of Mrs JackW to a dukedom or Archbishopric but within our select and egalitarian forum I'm happy to have the simple moniker of "Your TOTY-ness" applied, in dual recognition of both previous betting service to PB and my status as an unrivaled sex symbol ....
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Did I tell you my mum won Redbridge in Bloom five times in the last 14 years?
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
I find the accuracy of describing our 27 nearest neighbours as “shower of shits” as absurd, and the utility of doing so zero. Moreover, shits or no, they ain’t going anywhere so one has to figure out the best way of interacting with them.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
With them? No.
Without them? Hell yes. And they won't be around for ever.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
If the support is like that clearly Varadkar judged the mood correctly (and it seems unlikely if the numbers are like that that the overall thrust could be wrong).
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
I wobbled slightly because losing Cameron and Osborne seemed a high price to pay. It was nice to have smart and competent people in charge for a change. Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It was the prospect of getting rid of Cameron and Osborne which turned my marginal Leave into a solid Leave.
The now proven mendacity behind Project Fear plus policies which I didn't know about at the time such as freezing the student debt repayment threshold and the apprenticeship levy have confirmed me in my view.
I guess there's a multitude of different reasons why people vote one way or another each time.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
With them? No.
Without them? Hell yes. And they won't be around for ever.
So you are working on the assumption that the next generation of EU leadership will be better than the last 5? A triumph of hope over experience?
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
With them? No.
Without them? Hell yes. And they won't be around for ever.
So you are working on the assumption that the next generation of EU leadership will be better than the last 5? A triumph of hope over experience?
It's more that I think the current situation isn't sustainable. They need people of talent and with popular support to turn this mess around. If the EU is to survive, therefore, they will have to go. And if the likes of Selmayr stay, the EU will implode anyway so this whole farrago is unnecessary.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
I find the accuracy of describing our 27 nearest neighbours as “shower of shits” as absurd, and the utility of doing so zero. Moreover, shits or no, they ain’t going anywhere so one has to figure out the best way of interacting with them.
Quite apart from its inaccuracy, the personal characteristics of our neighbours is beside the point.
If we object to dealing with shits, then much in life and politics becomes impossible.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
I find the accuracy of describing our 27 nearest neighbours as “shower of shits” as absurd, and the utility of doing so zero. Moreover, shits or no, they ain’t going anywhere so one has to figure out the best way of interacting with them.
It’s not the people, it’s the system. It’s corrupt, undemocratic, hopelessly biased towards Germany’s interests and morally repugnant. We have to deal with them. Being in bed with them is really not necessary.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
I find the accuracy of describing our 27 nearest neighbours as “shower of shits” as absurd, and the utility of doing so zero. Moreover, shits or no, they ain’t going anywhere so one has to figure out the best way of interacting with them.
It’s not the people, it’s the system. It’s corrupt, undemocratic, hopelessly biased towards Germany’s interests and morally repugnant. We have to deal with them. Being in bed with them is really not necessary.
Not true. It will take the French side whenever it really needs to. Look at the beef ban.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
I find the accuracy of describing our 27 nearest neighbours as “shower of shits” as absurd, and the utility of doing so zero. Moreover, shits or no, they ain’t going anywhere so one has to figure out the best way of interacting with them.
Quite apart from its inaccuracy, the personal characteristics of our neighbours is beside the point.
If we object to dealing with shits, then much in life and politics becomes impossible.
We live in an apartment block with 27 neighbours. We get on with most of them pretty well. However, the managing agents, who think they own the place, are a bunch of arseholes. We are therefore moving out to a freehold place in the suburbs.
So even in a supposedly religious country like Ireland when it comes down to a choice between letting people lead their lives how they want or following what the church wants then people opt for the former.
Assisted dying will be next - the people want it, the church doesn't and is leading the campaign against, politicians are (understandably) nervous but in the end the people will have to get what they want (albeit with obvious safeguards).
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
On the contrary - 12 weeks on demand (with a doctor's consent) but longer if there is a clear reason.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
I find the accuracy of describing our 27 nearest neighbours as “shower of shits” as absurd, and the utility of doing so zero. Moreover, shits or no, they ain’t going anywhere so one has to figure out the best way of interacting with them.
Quite apart from its inaccuracy, the personal characteristics of our neighbours is beside the point.
If we object to dealing with shits, then much in life and politics becomes impossible.
We live in an apartment block with 27 neighbours. We get on with most of them pretty well. However, the managing agents, who think they own the place, are a bunch of arseholes. We are therefore moving out to a freehold place in the suburbs.
No we have stormed out, and are wandering round in the rain shouting abuse as the remaining residents in the block divvy up the furniture.
So even in a supposedly religious country like Ireland when it comes down to a choice between letting people lead their lives how they want or following what the church wants then people opt for the former.
Assisted dying will be next - the people want it, the church doesn't and is leading the campaign against, politicians are (understandably) nervous but in the end the people will have to get what they want (albeit with obvious safeguards).
Depends which religious country, Poland still has neither gay marriage nor legal abortion for example.
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
With them? No.
Without them? Hell yes. And they won't be around for ever.
So you are working on the assumption that the next generation of EU leadership will be better than the last 5? A triumph of hope over experience?
It's more that I think the current situation isn't sustainable. They need people of talent and with popular support to turn this mess around. If the EU is to survive, therefore, they will have to go. And if the likes of Selmayr stay, the EU will implode anyway so this whole farrago is unnecessary.
Germany doesn’t. They need a shower of incompetents who will do what they are told when they are told. Read Varofakis “Adults in the Room”. It is self serving in parts but it’s description of how the EU actually operates is appalling.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Although...
Yes, it seems somewhat more likely now, it has to be said!
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
But I had a major wobble around a week before the vote and wavered... In fact I could quite easily have voted REMAIN - So I was a shy and wavering LEAVER
I've become more LEAVE since the referendum due to the behaviour of the EU and Remainers here,
Now I would vote leave in a heartbeat. I find it truly remarkable that anyone paying attention would want to remain in the EU. I mean, have you not seen how they have behaved?
It’s funny to read this because my view is the precise opposite. How can anyone, seeing the collapse of the entire Brexiter manifesto, confidently vote Leave? I do not absolve the EU of error and stupidity during negotiations, but it’s irrelevant in a way. It all follows from our vote.
I find the idea that anyone would want to be in a club with that shower of shits really extraordinary.
I find the accuracy of describing our 27 nearest neighbours as “shower of shits” as absurd, and the utility of doing so zero. Moreover, shits or no, they ain’t going anywhere so one has to figure out the best way of interacting with them.
It’s not the people, it’s the system. It’s corrupt, undemocratic, hopelessly biased towards Germany’s interests and morally repugnant. We have to deal with them. Being in bed with them is really not necessary.
Not true. It will take the French side whenever it really needs to. Look at the beef ban.
Historically that has been true. But it’s Germany’s show now.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example
In effect though UK abortion is on demand. It is common for the Doctors who sign the forms to not meet the patient, and indeed signing blank forms is common albeit illegal.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
On the contrary - 12 weeks on demand (with a doctor's consent) but longer if there is a clear reason.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
It's applied, but it's easy to get round it.
The law says that continuing a pregnancy must be riskier to the mother than a termination.
Statistically, a live birth is riskier than a termination. So two sympathetic doctors can, in good conscience, sign off on an abortion on those grounds.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
I did an exercise years ago where we were given the abortion law (Back in about 1993) at school and had to decide if we would abort (If we were doctors in theory) in a scenario. We stuck to the law as it was written (And said we wouldn't), our teacher then told us apparently we were wrong and that most doctors would abort in that scenario.
Congratulations to Mr Meeks in his house purchase.
BTW in this week of Chelsea, I am going to boast about the fact that I have 14 roses flowering - or beginning to flower - in my garden, along with irises and geums. And my 3 tree ferns survived the winter and have been putting out new fronds. It is such a delight. My little bit of heaven on earth.
Did I tell you my mum won Redbridge in Bloom five times in the last 14 years?
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
I did an exercise years ago where we were given the abortion law (Back in about 1993) at school and had to decide if we would abort (If we were doctors in theory) in a scenario. We stuck to the law as it was written (And said we wouldn't), our teacher then told us apparently we were wrong and that most doctors would abort in that scenario.
I think most people would be surprised to learn that we don't technically have abortion on demand.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
In reality doctors provide a very broad definition of that risk yes but technically that remains the law
So even in a supposedly religious country like Ireland when it comes down to a choice between letting people lead their lives how they want or following what the church wants then people opt for the former.
Assisted dying will be next - the people want it, the church doesn't and is leading the campaign against, politicians are (understandably) nervous but in the end the people will have to get what they want (albeit with obvious safeguards).
I don't think the views of the churches on assisted dying are very significant in the UK. Politicians who are opposed are mostly opposed on secular grounds, rather than because God disapproves.
Oddly, the UK may now be a more socially conservative place than Ireland.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Although...
Yes, it seems somewhat more likely now, it has to be said!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
I still think there'll be a touch of shy 'no' for the exit poll so perhaps 67% in favour of repeal.
For whatever reason it seems the polls for this were much much better than they were for the gay marriage referendum.
That’s what I thought when predicting 2:1 a few days ago. But the days of the Catholic Church having a major say in Eire ended when they were found to protect and hide peodophiles. All moral authority has been lost.
So even in a supposedly religious country like Ireland when it comes down to a choice between letting people lead their lives how they want or following what the church wants then people opt for the former.
Assisted dying will be next - the people want it, the church doesn't and is leading the campaign against, politicians are (understandably) nervous but in the end the people will have to get what they want (albeit with obvious safeguards).
I don't think the views of the churches on assisted dying are very significant in the UK. Politicians who are opposed are mostly opposed on secular grounds, rather than because God disapproves.
Oddly, the UK may now be a more socially conservative place than Ireland.
Outside London maybe and Northern Ireland certainly.
Italy and Poland are now more traditional guardians of Catholic doctrine than Ireland it seems
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
I did an exercise years ago where we were given the abortion law (Back in about 1993) at school and had to decide if we would abort (If we were doctors in theory) in a scenario. We stuck to the law as it was written (And said we wouldn't), our teacher then told us apparently we were wrong and that most doctors would abort in that scenario.
I think most people would be surprised to learn that we don't technically have abortion on demand.
No, but the number is quite a high fraction of the birth rate.
Good to see less difference between rural and urban views than expected - broadly speaking everywhere seems to have a Yes majority. The youthquake happening here too (though we don't know differential turnout yet), with 87% of young voters for change.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Although...
Yes, it seems somewhat more likely now, it has to be said!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Prediction about the past can also be very difficult!
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
I did an exercise years ago where we were given the abortion law (Back in about 1993) at school and had to decide if we would abort (If we were doctors in theory) in a scenario. We stuck to the law as it was written (And said we wouldn't), our teacher then told us apparently we were wrong and that most doctors would abort in that scenario.
I think most people would be surprised to learn that we don't technically have abortion on demand.
No, but the number is quite a high fraction of the birth rate.
2016 births: 770,000 2016 abortions: 190,000
I saw JRM on the Daily Politics earlier this week and whilst I'm a pragmatist about this subject, I agree with him that this is a very sad state of affairs.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
It's applied, but it's easy to get round it.
The law says that continuing a pregnancy must be riskier to the mother than a termination.
Statistically, a live birth is riskier than a termination. So two sympathetic doctors can, in good conscience, sign off on an abortion on those grounds.
However I believe that detailed statistical analysis indicates that birth is less risky for the baby.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Although...
Yes, it seems somewhat more likely now, it has to be said!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
As Winston Churchill said, politics is the art of being able to say what will happen next.
And the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Although...
Yes, it seems somewhat more likely now, it has to be said!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Prediction about the past can also be very difficult!
The future is certain. Only the past keeps changing. Or something like that according to Orwell
Good to see less difference between rural and urban views than expected - broadly speaking everywhere seems to have a Yes majority. The youthquake happening here too (though we don't know differential turnout yet), with 87% of young voters for change.
Still at least a 10% difference between rural areas and Dublin though it seems.
I still think there'll be a touch of shy 'no' for the exit poll so perhaps 67% in favour of repeal.
For whatever reason it seems the polls for this were much much better than they were for the gay marriage referendum.
That’s what I thought when predicting 2:1 a few days ago. But the days of the Catholic Church having a major say in Eire ended when they were found to protect and hide peodophiles. All moral authority has been lost.
What were they thinking of, by doing so?
Throwing out paedophiles should have been a no-brainer.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
It's applied, but it's easy to get round it.
The law says that continuing a pregnancy must be riskier to the mother than a termination.
Statistically, a live birth is riskier than a termination. So two sympathetic doctors can, in good conscience, sign off on an abortion on those grounds.
However I believe that detailed statistical analysis indicates that birth is less risky for the baby.
Breathing is statistically the most dangerous activity of all.
Just placed my first political bet since 2015. I backed the 8th amendment to be unchanged for 10.
Fingers crossed!
Given what Varadkar is proposing in the event of a 'yes' vote that looks a value bet. I can imagine there will be an awful lot of people who have no objection to or are even in favour of abortion being available for tough cases (rape, septicaemia, underage pregnancy etc.) who would be uneasy about it being available simply on demand.
If I were an Irish voter, I would vote No for that reason. A more limited Repeal would have my support.
I think that Varadkar hasn't quite realised that on controversial issues where popular support is marginal the best change is in incremental steps. He should have remembered the famous words of Michael Collins in compromising on the Irish Free State - 'it gives us the freedom to win freedom.' Pushing from total prohibition to total freedom to total liberation in one swoop is quite a stretch.
Not that Theresa May has learned that either or we would be heading for EEA.
(Edit - Of course if Yes wins 70/30 that point falls by the wayside, but that doesn't seem likely.)
Although...
Yes, it seems somewhat more likely now, it has to be said!
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future
Prediction about the past can also be very difficult!
Indeed.
Actually, although the quote is allegedly from the great Niels Bohr, on reflection I see it is not quite right. Bohr should have said 'Accurate prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.' Predictions are easy - getting them right is the challenge.
I still think there'll be a touch of shy 'no' for the exit poll so perhaps 67% in favour of repeal.
For whatever reason it seems the polls for this were much much better than they were for the gay marriage referendum.
That’s what I thought when predicting 2:1 a few days ago. But the days of the Catholic Church having a major say in Eire ended when they were found to protect and hide peodophiles. All moral authority has been lost.
Though more Catholics are born in Africa every year than the entire population of Ireland.
Outside of Poland and Italy Europe is increasingly secular, after a Latin American Pope I would not be surprised if there is an African Pope next as that is where the growth areas for Catholicism are
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
It's applied, but it's easy to get round it.
The law says that continuing a pregnancy must be riskier to the mother than a termination.
Statistically, a live birth is riskier than a termination. So two sympathetic doctors can, in good conscience, sign off on an abortion on those grounds.
However I believe that detailed statistical analysis indicates that birth is less risky for the baby.
On a short term basis. No one gets out of life alive.
The exit poll is very clear and in my view a good result although it is important to put in place a sensible alternative as abortion is always a "least worst" measure and best avoided where practicable.
The Fine Gael proposal will still make it pretty restrictive by the standards of here or rest of Europe. 12 weeks iirc.
It is actually still technically quite strict in the UK, doctors are not allowed to approve abortion on demand but only if a risk to the 'physical or mental health' of the mother without one.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example. In NI abortion is also still illegal
And does anyone believe that the law here is actually applied?
It's applied, but it's easy to get round it.
The law says that continuing a pregnancy must be riskier to the mother than a termination.
Statistically, a live birth is riskier than a termination. So two sympathetic doctors can, in good conscience, sign off on an abortion on those grounds.
However I believe that detailed statistical analysis indicates that birth is less risky for the baby.
Breathing is statistically the most dangerous activity of all.
Everyone and everything that breathes, dies.
Nos da I gyd.
Surely not breathing is riskier; people live for an average of circa 80 years in the UK while breathing but less than 5 minutes when not breathing.
Apparently there’s another exit poll by RTE coming at 11:30pm. On Twitter they’re saying the Irish Times called it right the last two times (ref and GE) with their exit polls.
I still think there'll be a touch of shy 'no' for the exit poll so perhaps 67% in favour of repeal.
For whatever reason it seems the polls for this were much much better than they were for the gay marriage referendum.
That’s what I thought when predicting 2:1 a few days ago. But the days of the Catholic Church having a major say in Eire ended when they were found to protect and hide peodophiles. All moral authority has been lost.
What were they thinking of, by doing so?
Throwing out paedophiles should have been a no-brainer.
They were thinking about the institution and it’s producers or members, not who it was serving or why. All institutions do.
Comments
Mo' @mocent0
‘I was so against persecution of homosexuals, I had to be forced to accept a 20k fee from the propaganda station of a regime that hangs them’ Jeremy Corbyn.
Ohhh Owen Jones
I was much conflicted as to my vote and realized it was one of those occasions when the decision would be made in the polling booth. However I had been quite ill in the weeks leading to the vote and Mrs JackW threatened all sorts of vile retribution (pineapple pizza, replays of Dianne Abbott speeches !!) should I step foot outside of the home - She won ... no change there then ....
I have several hundreds of roses flowering. However, they are not in my garden!
The pineapple on pizza is bad enough but the speeches - dear God, how could anyone be that cruel?
The only question is when we realise.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-exit-poll-projects-ireland-has-voted-by-landslide-to-repeal-eighth-amendment-1.3508861
Without them? Hell yes. And they won't be around for ever.
The now proven mendacity behind Project Fear plus policies which I didn't know about at the time such as freezing the student debt repayment threshold and the apprenticeship levy have confirmed me in my view.
I guess there's a multitude of different reasons why people vote one way or another each time.
If we object to dealing with shits, then much in life and politics becomes impossible.
Assisted dying will be next - the people want it, the church doesn't and is leading the campaign against, politicians are (understandably) nervous but in the end the people will have to get what they want (albeit with obvious safeguards).
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-exit-poll-to-give-projected-abortion-referendum-result-tonight-1.3508503
That's a lot more liberal than, for example, our laws.
That is stricter even than in the USA post Roe v Wade for example.
In NI abortion is also still illegal
For whatever reason it seems the polls for this were much much better than they were for the gay marriage referendum.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/10778981/Illegal-abortion-doctors-face-no-action.html
Perhaps they could have a referendum on gay marriage and adoption at the same time.
The law says that continuing a pregnancy must be riskier to the mother than a termination.
Statistically, a live birth is riskier than a termination. So two sympathetic doctors can, in good conscience, sign off on an abortion on those grounds.
Mind you, the same would have been true the other way.
Oddly, the UK may now be a more socially conservative place than Ireland.
Italy and Poland are now more traditional guardians of Catholic doctrine than Ireland it seems
2016 births: 770,000
2016 abortions: 190,000
And the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen.
Good night.
Throwing out paedophiles should have been a no-brainer.
Everyone and everything that breathes, dies.
Nos da I gyd.
Actually, although the quote is allegedly from the great Niels Bohr, on reflection I see it is not quite right. Bohr should have said 'Accurate prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.' Predictions are easy - getting them right is the challenge.
Outside of Poland and Italy Europe is increasingly secular, after a Latin American Pope I would not be surprised if there is an African Pope next as that is where the growth areas for Catholicism are