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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Priti Patel flying in from Kenya her situation and the go

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Priti Patel flying in from Kenya her situation and the government’s gets more complicated

The Patel saga is getting murkier. Exclusive in Jewish Chronicle: No 10 knew about Patel meetings https://t.co/gDQhL2Q1RR

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    This is just bat shit mental
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    It really is
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    May, a safe pair of hands to see the Tory party through Brexit.

    Er, no.

    The longer she stays, the worse it gets.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/928234917301051392
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    https://twitter.com/Gethsemane65/status/928232990471282688

    What did we ever do before 24hr news channels...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited November 2017
    Fourth, err sixth...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It really is

    Are you talking to yourself - mind you I could understand
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    FPT: Mr. Rhubarb, that graph is very counter-intuitive.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/Gethsemane65/status/928232990471282688

    What did we ever do before 24hr news channels...

    You don't need 'em: https://www.flightradar24.com
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/Gethsemane65/status/928232990471282688

    What did we ever do before 24hr news channels...

    We read Private Eye once a fortnight and tried to remember what all the nicknames and coded references meant.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Hold on, I'm lost. Are we now saying that Burt has told an untruth to the Commons? Or that FCO is covering up something?

    Maybe Boris will end up in the frame somehow.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Alistair said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Jonathan said:

    david_herdson said:

    anothernick said:

    david_herdson said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    If May does go over this, imminently, would that mean she actually departs very swiftly, or hang on for the leadership election?

    Normally it'd be the latter, but she clearly would be happier out of it. Yet, the seeming caretaker would be Green.

    The caretaker is whoever's fit for it. In many ways, it's an advantage to have someone mind the shop who cannot be PM in the long term: it means they don't become an alternative power base.

    That said, I still wouldn't pick Green. Someone in the Lords would be better.
    Which would reveal that the Tory Party is incapable of agreeing on an MP to fill the role even as a caretaker. They cannot form a coherent government and a new leader will not change that.
    Not really. To be a caretaker leader / PM you need to have sufficient experience and authority to be seen as credible in the job, while having no interest yourself in doing it for the long term. That inevitably means an elder statesman. On the Tory benches, there are very few former senior ministers, partly because of Labour's 13 years in office but also because of the speed with which Cameron, Osborne and Hague left the Commons. There's only really Clarke and he's unsuitable because of the European question.

    But it would be much better if May were to be the caretaker PM if she were forced out or resigned as Con leader.

    FWIW, Cameron is 300/1 and Osborne is 200/1 (neither of whom are in the Lords but that could be changed easily enough); Oddschecker doesn't quote odds for Hague.
    Looking at years served, Jeremy Hunt really should be an obvious contender for the position.
    *looks at Betfair account*

    *nods fervently*
    Philip Hammond is the only sensible choice.
    Given how vehemently he is hated by Leavers, he has no chance in any time horizon currently under consideration.
    Looks at Betfair account again

    ONLY. SENSIBLE. CHOICE.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Ishmael_Z said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/Gethsemane65/status/928232990471282688

    What did we ever do before 24hr news channels...

    You don't need 'em: https://www.flightradar24.com
    Yes. Filter on callsign KQA100

    She is just crossing into Albanian airspace
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    Hunt CoE
    Davis FO
    Rudd Home

    Gove Brexit
    Mogg Culture
    Truss Health

    Johnson Party Chair


  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    Aid to IDF-gate or

    Priti's gone Potty

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Jonathan said:

    Hunt CoE
    Davis FO
    Rudd Home

    Gove Brexit
    Mogg Culture
    Truss Health

    Johnson Party Chair


    I could live with that
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mrs C, makes me wonder if someone will make an app for political resignations and firings. Sackr, perhaps?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/markdistef/status/928234584021651456
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/Gethsemane65/status/928232990471282688

    What did we ever do before 24hr news channels...

    What did we do before jet travel. At one time, a minister going on a tour of Africa would be away for six weeks at least.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    rottenborough said:

    Hold on, I'm lost. Are we now saying that Burt has told an untruth to the Commons? Or that FCO is covering up something?

    Maybe Boris will end up in the frame somehow.

    If Boris prepared the brief for Burt, he probably just didn't bother to read the minutes...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2017
    I suppose the BBC showing a flight tracker stops them boring us to death about the outrageous scandal that Queenie having £3k invested in BrightHouse....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Jonathan said:

    May, a safe pair of hands to see the Tory party through Brexit.

    Er, no.

    The longer she stays, the worse it gets.

    To see the country through Brexit you mean and move towards a FTA with the EU, there is near zero chance May will lead the Tories at the next general election.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    edited November 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Rhubarb, that graph is very counter-intuitive.

    Indeed. Singh has a similar one for Corbyn that shows him as comparable to Kinnock and Miliband.

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/926428161482592258

    Now there are three options - the bubble is wrong, the numbers are wrong or everything is wrong - but how do we figure out which is the right answer?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited November 2017
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://twitter.com/Gethsemane65/status/928232990471282688

    What did we ever do before 24hr news channels...

    We read Private Eye once a fortnight and tried to remember what all the nicknames and coded references meant.
    Today’s events give a whole new meaning to Ugandan Discussions :tongue:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/markdistef/status/928234584021651456

    Never mind, If Rupert carries out his threat to close down Sky News (as reported in the business news) we will only have the BBC

    Mind you the consolation is that Faisal Islam, Ed Conway, Adam Boulton and others will be off our screens
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Rhubarb said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Rhubarb, that graph is very counter-intuitive.

    Indeed. Singh has a similar one for Corbyn that shows him as comparable to Kinnock and Miliband.

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/926428161482592258

    Now there are three options - the bubble is wrong, the numbers are wrong or everything is wrong - but how do we figure out which is the right answer?
    At this stage of the cycle Cameron was dealing with the Millie Dowler phone hacking saga and the riots.

    Thatcher was dealing with a recession and dire unemployment stats.

    Context is everything.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Rhubarb, maybe the lessons to draw from that are that the public really don't pay attention to internal political stuff, and that time is a bigger factor for senior politicians than most events.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rottenborough said:

    Hold on, I'm lost. Are we now saying that Burt has told an untruth to the Commons? Or that FCO is covering up something?

    Maybe Boris will end up in the frame somehow.

    We are entering Watergate territory with clandestine meetings and cover-ups.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Rhubarb said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Rhubarb, that graph is very counter-intuitive.

    Indeed. Singh has a similar one for Corbyn that shows him as comparable to Kinnock and Miliband.

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/926428161482592258

    Now there are three options - the bubble is wrong, the numbers are wrong or everything is wrong - but how do we figure out which is the right answer?
    At this stage of the cycle Cameron was dealing with the Millie Dowler phone hacking saga and the riots.

    Thatcher was dealing with a recession and dire unemployment stats.

    Context is everything.
    To be fair, May is dealing with Brexit and Sexual Harassment scandal...they aren't exactly calm waters.

    I would suggest Brexit is even more polarizing than phone hacking.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    In the Terry Pratchett great philosophical works a shambles is a useful tool that can tell you what is going on, can give you a degree of protection from hostile forces and even give insight into what might be about to happen. In honour of these masterpieces I really think the word should be retired from descriptions of this government since none of these characteristics are present.

    TSE's "bat shit mental" seems more appropriate.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @philipjcowley: Everyone, today: She should do a major reshuffle. Stamp of authority. Nothing to lose.

    Major reshuffle -> civil war in Conservative Party -> May ousted

    Everyone, tomorrow: She crazy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    On the day Bulgaria announces it's love for Russia and desire to leave the EU
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    edited November 2017
    Mr. Eagles, and yet, after the Battle of Arausio, which included rather worse infighting from Caepio and Maximus, the Romans subsequently defeated the Cimbri.

    Or, for that matter, after the Varro/Paullus disagreement over Cannae tactics, Rome suffered a huge defeat and then won the war (eventually).

    Edited extra bit: a shame we can't get Quintus Fabius Maximus to do the negotiating for us.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    Worst. Government. Ever.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mrs C, makes me wonder if someone will make an app for political resignations and firings. Sackr, perhaps?

    It would put all your betting types out of business... :dizzy:
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    You'd imagine Patel would be replaced by another female and preferably a leaver. So Mordaunt would fit the bill. (though not at 2/1)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    SouthamObserver said:

    Worst. Government. Ever.

    Worse opposition ever
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    On the day Bulgaria announces it's love for Russia and desire to leave the EU
    Bulgaria has not, a Bulgarian politician has.

    You're going all Finland backs Catalonia again.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    On the day Bulgaria announces it's love for Russia and desire to leave the EU
    Bulgaria has not, a Bulgarian politician has.

    You're going all Finland backs Catalonia again.
    Give it time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    edited November 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    There is nothing to 'outsmart.' Barnier and Juncker and Merkel have made clear either the UK pays the exit bill to move towards a FTA or there is no FTA.

    The UK has already ruled out staying in the single market beyond a transition period in order to end free movement.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited November 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, and yet, after the Battle of Arausio, which included rather worse infighting from Caepio and Maximus, the Romans subsequently defeated the Cimbri.

    Or, for that matter, after the Varro/Paullus disagreement over Cannae tactics, Rome suffered a huge defeat and then won the war (eventually).

    Edited extra bit: a shame we can't get Quintus Fabius Maximus to do the negotiating for us.

    I can see the parallels between Theresa May and Hannibal.

    Both vastly overrated for starters.

    Cannae = Her 2017 General election.

    Hollow victory and she lost the war.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    It would be funny if she turns out not to be on the plane.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/928240380004524033
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    https://twitter.com/davidvienna/status/924396966951268352
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Eagles, hmm.

    At Cannae, Hannibal successfully surrounded and annihilated a force twice his size in the greatest pincer movement in military history.

    You think that resembles May's 2017 General Election?

    Anyway, I don't have time to educate you (or attempt to do so, you do appear quite impervious to it), as the hound requires perambulation.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, and yet, after the Battle of Arausio, which included rather worse infighting from Caepio and Maximus, the Romans subsequently defeated the Cimbri.

    Or, for that matter, after the Varro/Paullus disagreement over Cannae tactics, Rome suffered a huge defeat and then won the war (eventually).

    Edited extra bit: a shame we can't get Quintus Fabius Maximus to do the negotiating for us.

    I can see the parallels between Theresa May and Hannibal.

    Both vastly overrated for starters.

    Cannae = Her 2017 General election.

    Hollow victory and she lost the war.
    She got a Cannae in 'practice' mode; it didn't turn out like that when she played for real.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    If No 10 were in fact aware of these meetings but did not want them disclosed to the Foreign Office (at least officially) and Mrs May allowed an FO Minister to make a statement in the House that they were not disclosed we may just be leaving a period of relative calm....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    DavidL said:

    If No 10 were in fact aware of these meetings but did not want them disclosed to the Foreign Office (at least officially) and Mrs May allowed an FO Minister to make a statement in the House that they were not disclosed we may just be leaving a period of relative calm....

    Categorical denial is current state of play.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Artist said:

    You'd imagine Patel would be replaced by another female and preferably a leaver. So Mordaunt would fit the bill. (though not at 2/1)

    Why would we imagine that?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    If No 10 were in fact aware of these meetings but did not want them disclosed to the Foreign Office (at least officially) and Mrs May allowed an FO Minister to make a statement in the House that they were not disclosed we may just be leaving a period of relative calm....

    Categorical denial is current state of play.
    I believe the denial, because as I posted earlier the JC article doesn't seem to make sense.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, hmm.

    At Cannae, Hannibal successfully surrounded and annihilated a force twice his size in the greatest pincer movement in military history.

    You think that resembles May's 2017 General Election?

    Anyway, I don't have time to educate you (or attempt to do so, you do appear quite impervious to it), as the hound requires perambulation.

    She pincered/ambushed herself as she lost the Tory majority.

    A sort of Lake Trasimene in reverse
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Worst. Government. Ever.

    Worse opposition ever
    One has to wonder what the LDs have to do to move in the polls. Doing absolutely nothing should put them in the 20% or 30% range. Yet nothing whatsoever changes.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    DavidL said:

    In the Terry Pratchett great philosophical works a shambles is a useful tool that can tell you what is going on, can give you a degree of protection from hostile forces and even give insight into what might be about to happen. In honour of these masterpieces I really think the word should be retired from descriptions of this government since none of these characteristics are present.

    TSE's "bat shit mental" seems more appropriate.

    "Useless" is shorter and contains one less profanity :)
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Beverley_C said:

    Artist said:

    You'd imagine Patel would be replaced by another female and preferably a leaver. So Mordaunt would fit the bill. (though not at 2/1)

    Why would we imagine that?
    Because May has no actual power remaining so all she can do is make the closest possible like-for-like replacements in order to try not to offend any of the factions who could bring her down. I would say "or appoint staunch allies" but Williamson was the only remaining person pretending to be one of those and he just got a promotion.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    If No 10 were in fact aware of these meetings but did not want them disclosed to the Foreign Office (at least officially) and Mrs May allowed an FO Minister to make a statement in the House that they were not disclosed we may just be leaving a period of relative calm....

    Categorical denial is current state of play.
    They will just deny that. Categorically.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/928241878285344768
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/flightradar24/status/928241878285344768

    No wonder UK productivity is so shit...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    So, you're Patel. You're on the flight. What do you do. Does LHR have a back door?

    Does she go to no10 or do a little press conference at the airport?

    What does she do with duty frees?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    On the day Bulgaria announces it's love for Russia and desire to leave the EU
    Bulgaria has not, a Bulgarian politician has.

    You're going all Finland backs Catalonia again.
    Although back during the Cold War Bulgaria was the only Warsaw Pact country to petition for admission to the Soviet Union. More than once I believe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/928242965939675138
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Scott_P said:

    @philipjcowley: Everyone, today: She should do a major reshuffle. Stamp of authority. Nothing to lose.

    Major reshuffle -> civil war in Conservative Party -> May ousted

    Everyone, tomorrow: She crazy.

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/928241878285344768

    She should ask it to divert and seek asylum in Tel Aviv.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Should May call a Time-out ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    @philipjcowley: Everyone, today: She should do a major reshuffle. Stamp of authority. Nothing to lose.

    Major reshuffle -> civil war in Conservative Party -> May ousted

    Everyone, tomorrow: She crazy.

    And yet we still mock Brown.
    We learned this year that Brown got that decision soooooo right.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    The scenery on this bit of the flight is lovely.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is Priti being a spook really a sacking offence ?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited November 2017
    Guardian reporting on Five Live:

    Soubry agreed. She said: "I’m with Mary [Creagh]. I think Mary’s instincts are usually good and on this one I’m sure she is right."

    I'm increasingly wondering about Soubry's place in the Conservatives. She seems to be freelancing as an independent centrist rather than a whipped Tory MP.

    As it is, the whips seem to have largely given up, just rolling over and abstaining every time Labour looks like winning a vote. But assuming Patel also becomes an enemy of May after the near-inevitable sacking, that DUP-enhanced majority is looking more precarious by the day. How on earth is any Brexit legislation going to get through?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    @philipjcowley: Everyone, today: She should do a major reshuffle. Stamp of authority. Nothing to lose.

    Major reshuffle -> civil war in Conservative Party -> May ousted

    Everyone, tomorrow: She crazy.

    And yet we still mock Brown.
    We learned this year that Brown got that decision soooooo right.
    The decision was never really the issue. The problem was the way the whole thing was handled including an excruciating interview iirc with Andy Marr explaining why there had never ever ever been a plan to hold an early election.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/928241878285344768

    She should ask it to divert and seek asylum in Tel Aviv.
    Albania is dotted with many thousands of pill boxes as a result of Hoxha's paranoia.
  • MottledMottled Posts: 1
    Jacob Rees-Mogg at 20\1 at Ladbrokes to replace Priti Patel? But he's already basically said he'd prefer to be in the cabinet when he runs for the leadership. His stint at the DFID on his way to Number Ten could be shorter than John Major's at the Foreign Office. I'll ask Betfair to open a book on Priti Patel's successor
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2017
    It is an approach from the east today at Heathrow (runway 27L is the landing runway) so maybe Ms Patel can wave at Downing St as she comes past - the approach runs in from Greenwich, over Clapham Common and down to Heathrow. Today's METAR is

    EGLL 081220Z AUTO 36007KT 310V040 9999 BKN031 OVC044 09/04 Q1023

    so they might switch direction if the wind veers round a bit more. I am assuming she sat on the right as befits her political outlook :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pong said:

    The scenery on this bit of the flight is lovely.

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/928243912904511488
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2017
    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    If you think the level of hostility that May is facing is unrelated to Brexit then I have a bridge for sale.

    Hence why no one wants the job - until 60 seconds after Brexit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jimwaterson: Hard to believe it's only two hours until Sky News is broadcasting a grainy live shot of Priti Patel's aircraft landing at Heathrow.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Scott_P said:

    @jimwaterson: Hard to believe it's only two hours until Sky News is broadcasting a grainy live shot of Priti Patel's aircraft landing at Heathrow.

    It's all getting a bit silly.

    I mean, "she's only a Cabinet minister".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Beverley_C said:

    It is an approach from the east today at Heathrow (runway 27L is the landing runway) so maybe Ms Patel can wave at Downing St as she comes past - the approach runs in from Greenwich, over Clapham Common and down to Heathrow. Today's METAR is

    EGLL 081220Z AUTO 36007KT 310V040 9999 BKN031 OVC044 09/04 Q1023

    so they might switch direction if the wind veers round a bit more. I am assuming she sat on the right as befits her political outlook :D

    Nothing on pprune yet.

    If it ain't on pprune it ain't interesting in the skies.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
    She either carries on like this, or rolls the dice. No brainer.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Beverley_C said:

    It is an approach from the east today at Heathrow (runway 27L is the landing runway) so maybe Ms Patel can wave at Downing St as she comes past - the approach runs in from Greenwich, over Clapham Common and down to Heathrow. Today's METAR is

    EGLL 081220Z AUTO 36007KT 310V040 9999 BKN031 OVC044 09/04 Q1023

    so they might switch direction if the wind veers round a bit more. I am assuming she sat on the right as befits her political outlook :D

    I think she's sat next to the exit as befits her career outlook.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    edited November 2017
    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
    She either carries on like this, or rolls the dice. No brainer.
    As far as I can see, Mrs May has gambled precisely once* in her entire life. That was to call an early election. I doubt she'll be trying gambling again.

    * Edit: possibly twice - "nasty party" speech.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
    She won't because it is an asymmetric risk. Do something, risk getting ejected. Do nothing, risk becoming ever weaker (on the assumption that surely - surely - if anyone was going to try their hand against her they would have done so by now).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    Polruan said:

    Beverley_C said:

    It is an approach from the east today at Heathrow (runway 27L is the landing runway) so maybe Ms Patel can wave at Downing St as she comes past - the approach runs in from Greenwich, over Clapham Common and down to Heathrow. Today's METAR is

    EGLL 081220Z AUTO 36007KT 310V040 9999 BKN031 OVC044 09/04 Q1023

    so they might switch direction if the wind veers round a bit more. I am assuming she sat on the right as befits her political outlook :D

    I think she's sat next to the exit as befits her career outlook.
    She's probably having a quick meeting with the flight captain, which neither her department, No.10 or FO know about.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    If you think the level of hostility that May is facing is unrelated to Brexit then I have a bridge for sale.

    Hence why no one wants the job - until 60 seconds after Brexit.
    At this rate 60 seconds after Brexit will be the precise point May's premiership ends.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Priti s plane now two hours from Heathrow.

    The fun thing is that no-one on the plane will have any idea what’s going on back on the ground in London, unless someone chooses to make a call on the sat phone system. You can’t make an incoming call to the plane, except via ATC or the airline.
    She’ll have no idea at all that 22,000 people and the two 24h news channels have been following the plane in real time all day!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Lol What an amusing situation. Looks like Patel is heading out, clearly more expendable than Boris. As to who replaces her - well I suspect @Shadsy will end up winning that one.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Polruan said:

    Beverley_C said:

    Artist said:

    You'd imagine Patel would be replaced by another female and preferably a leaver. So Mordaunt would fit the bill. (though not at 2/1)

    Why would we imagine that?
    Because May has no actual power remaining so all she can do is make the closest possible like-for-like replacements in order to try not to offend any of the factions who could bring her down. I would say "or appoint staunch allies" but Williamson was the only remaining person pretending to be one of those and he just got a promotion.
    You might imagine that, I could not possibly comment :D
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
    A major reshuffle would make no fundamental difference. It might look good for a week or two but the fundamental problem would be unchanged. The Tory Party has no coherent policy on Brexit and a reshuffle will not conjour one up. They are completely incapable of governing.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
    Perversely, she benefits from having several weak leadership contenders in the frame. As soon as she ditches a few of them, MPs may rally around another and no longer feel any need to delay pulling the trigger
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    rottenborough said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
    She either carries on like this, or rolls the dice. No brainer.
    As far as I can see, Mrs May has gambled precisely once in her entire life. That was to call an early election. I doubt she'll be trying gambling again.
    Good point. I imagine the thing she cares most about now is salvaging her reputation and leaving on some kind of up swing. I fear she might be disappointed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928246296837873664
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    edited November 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Worst. Government. Ever.

    Worse opposition ever

    No argument from me on that. How blessed we are to have the two combined.

    Edit - I’d say this is the second worst opposition ever. The worst was the one Corbyn led before the general election.

    I am struggling to think of a government that gets close to the current one for sheer ineptitude and dysfunctionality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Jonathan said:

    rottenborough said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    And yet we still mock Brown for not having the cojones to call an election. Such changes are unstable, unpredictable and events can turn on the slightest (or in this case, most enormous) issue.

    I don't blame her for not rocking the boat.

    It is execrable, weak, bad government, a shambles. But I don't blame her for it.

    A major and bold reshuffle would be a risk, of course, but one with considerable potential upside. Conversely, doing as little as possible is also a risk, but one with with little or no upside. What's more, now is a particularly good time to be bold, because her most dangerous ministers are currently weak and the sexual harassment scandal is a restraining factor on any plots.

    There will never be a better time for her to seize the initiative.

    However, she won't.
    She either carries on like this, or rolls the dice. No brainer.
    As far as I can see, Mrs May has gambled precisely once in her entire life. That was to call an early election. I doubt she'll be trying gambling again.
    Good point. I imagine the thing she cares most about now is salvaging her reputation and leaving on some kind of up swing. I fear she might be disappointed.
    All she is focused on now is moving towards a FTA with the EU
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The EU must look at Mrs May and her cabinet and think this lot will not outsmart us in the Brexit negotiations.

    If you think the level of hostility that May is facing is unrelated to Brexit then I have a bridge for sale.

    Hence why no one wants the job - until 60 seconds after Brexit.
    At this rate 60 seconds after Brexit will be the precise point May's premiership ends.
    It wont be far off - certainly within 60 days.

    External forces are at work at present - can she stagger over the line in March '19.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Polruan said:

    Beverley_C said:

    It is an approach from the east today at Heathrow (runway 27L is the landing runway) so maybe Ms Patel can wave at Downing St as she comes past - the approach runs in from Greenwich, over Clapham Common and down to Heathrow. Today's METAR is

    EGLL 081220Z AUTO 36007KT 310V040 9999 BKN031 OVC044 09/04 Q1023

    so they might switch direction if the wind veers round a bit more. I am assuming she sat on the right as befits her political outlook :D

    I think she's sat next to the exit as befits her career outlook.
    :D:+1:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What are the odds on a general election within 12 months?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    edited November 2017
    Does this farce now qualify for a -gate suffix?

    Prittigate?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TOPPING said:

    Beverley_C said:

    It is an approach from the east today at Heathrow (runway 27L is the landing runway) so maybe Ms Patel can wave at Downing St as she comes past - the approach runs in from Greenwich, over Clapham Common and down to Heathrow. Today's METAR is

    EGLL 081220Z AUTO 36007KT 310V040 9999 BKN031 OVC044 09/04 Q1023

    so they might switch direction if the wind veers round a bit more. I am assuming she sat on the right as befits her political outlook :D

    Nothing on pprune yet.

    If it ain't on pprune it ain't interesting in the skies.
    Surely you are not allowed to update it from the flightdeck???!!??
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Jonathan said:

    Does this farce now qualify for a -gate suffix?

    Prittigate?

    Prixit?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Rejoice, rejoice !
    Oh come, oh come, Priti Patel
    And ransom captive Israel
This discussion has been closed.