politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2017 general election: The most profitable general electio
Comments
-
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm very pleased that the bookies made money.
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?0 -
Not at all, how else do you spread the word of the Lord these days?View_From_Cumbria said:
Surely mobile phones are the work of the devil ?EPG said:Loyalist-backed Con-DUP government is being urged to prioritise allowing Orange marches down Catholic roads. Because it's their "culture".
https://twitter.com/Portadownlol1/status/8736387799108403200 -
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.Philip_Thompson said:It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM.
2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020
2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too.
2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
0 -
The most telling remark of this election.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm very pleased that the bookies made money.
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?0 -
Just like our political parties,jeremy and john liking hard brexit ;-)Sean_F said:
Absolutely. Public opinion has become quite unpredictable.Philip_Thompson said:It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM.
2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020
2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too.
2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.0 -
Bizarrely you're both right. The DUP were singing 'Arlene's on fire' to the tune of Gala's Freed from Desire - something they've since apologised for as the family of a person killed in an IRA bomb attack complained. link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37849771.Paristonda said:
The lyric was "Arlene's on fire" which means it was probably a parody to the N. Ireland Euro 2016 song, "Will Greig's on fire" - so the song is Freed from Desire.kyf_100 said:
It sounds a lot more like different lyrics set to Tiffany - I think we're alone now. Can't work out what they're saying though.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm told it was 'It's Raining Men' (or version of), which would indicate a hitherto undisclosed sense of irony in the Loyalist community.isam said:Theuniondivvie said:
The wee Charle Hawtry guy at the podium is exerting a weird fascination over me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Lord, that's horrific.Theuniondivvie said:
à la..?TheScreamingEagles said:
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.Alistair said:
https://twitter.com/graham4sinead/status/873244809410031620
What were they really singing?
The audio on that tweeted clip however is a Rangers song to the tune of Tiffany's I Think We're Alone Now with the charing lyrics "We hate Catholics, everybody hates Roman Catholics" link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCPhprR8CuU0 -
I fear Betfair Sportsbook made have my card marked. I was dow to £3.55 Constituency bets at the end. (which was lucky as they were losers!)Andrew said:
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm very pleased that the bookies made money.
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?0 -
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!0 -
Oh for goodness sake! I have absolutely no time for that Arlene Foster, but that's just ridiculous.MJW said:Bizarrely you're both right. The DUP were singing 'Arlene's on fire' to the tune of Gala's Freed from Desire - something they've since apologised for as the family of a person killed in an IRA bomb attack complained. link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37849771.
0 -
No. 10 lampost !
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/8739580798716354560 -
-
Some friends of ours recently moved from South Cambridgeshire to the Mansfield area.DM_Andy said:
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.Philip_Thompson said:It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM.
2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020
2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too.
2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
She wrote a post on Facebook on Friday: "How can we move from Cambridgeshire to Mansfield and still have a Tory MP!"0 -
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner
2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.0 -
If May can get through the next 2-3 weeks there must be real potential for Labour to start causing problems for themselves again. It still astonishes me that the Conservatives managed to go through the entire campaign barely failing to mention the internal Labour problems over the last year.Scott_P said:0 -
Agreed. Predictions have made fools of all of us. And gambling on those self projected predictions appears to be even more foolish (which is why I don't go anywhere near the bookies).DM_Andy said:
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.Philip_Thompson said:It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM.
2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020
2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too.
2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Nothing is certain anymore, apart from uncertainty. If 40% of the British public can be seduced by extremists like Corbyn and McDonnell, then we are all in very serious trouble.0 -
I think we can all make up our own minds about the DUP, thanks.Y0kel said:
Unionists is not solely the DUP, read it. But, as I said, we hear the caricatures, have done for decades and we aren't going to be guilted.Chris said:
You may be comfortable with that load of ignorant, bigoted garbage, but you shouldn't presume to speak for others in Northern Ireland, and you shouldn't expect people elsewhere to be happy with it either.Y0kel said:
Nah you see this is where you miss it entirely.Alistair said:
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know.Alistair said:
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.TheScreamingEagles said:
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.Alistair said:
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
I am not an instinctive DUP voter. They are not a natural home for me at all. In fact all the posters here who have a background in NI look to be much the same in their outlook.
But the DUP are not what the hysterics claim for their own political ends. Having said that Unionists in NI have lived with the caricatures for decades. We don't give a fiddlers, we are wholly comfortable in our own skin. We exist.
We don't expect everyone to be happy with it, I'm don't think its ideal at all but its reality, its politics.
Get used to your new political overlords.
0 -
A huge disadvantage for the Tories will be the question of competence. Look at the political mess we have had since 2015. They will no doubt ditch 'strong and stable' but it will haunt them for a few more years yet.MikeL said:
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner
2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.0 -
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.Pulpstar said:
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.atia2 said:
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.Jonathan said:Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: Andrea Leadsom becomes Leader of the House of Commons.0
-
I posted this morning that I think Labour have peaked and are dependent on Conservatives not turning out or a mysterious redistribution of their votes for a better seat tally next time.AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!0 -
Lol!MikeL said:
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner
2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.
It already looks like they are clinging on.0 -
-
french parliament results in 7 minutes. Macron majority seems nailed on, and french polls don't lie. But will it be a landslide? and will France Insoumise beat the socialists in seats?0
-
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.0 -
Well there's always death & taxes.... and May being dead PM walking.Jason said:
Agreed. Predictions have made fools of all of us. And gambling on those self projected predictions appears to be even more foolish (which is why I don't go anywhere near the bookies).DM_Andy said:
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.Philip_Thompson said:It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM.
2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020
2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too.
2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Nothing is certain anymore, apart from uncertainty...
0 -
-
@tnewtondunn: Breaking: Michael Gove is back in the Cabinet - made Environment Secretary. May forced to give a job to her nemesis #reshuffle0
-
He looks absolutely thrilled with May's great success.calum said:No. 10 lampost !
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/8739580798716354560 -
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
-
That is excellent news.Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Breaking: Michael Gove is back in the Cabinet - made Environment Secretary. May forced to give a job to her nemesis #reshuffle
0 -
And Michael Gove has to explain to the farmers why they are not getting their subsidies...TheScreamingEagles said:So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
0 -
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.0 -
You're right - because everyone is still coming to terms with the GE result.IanB2 said:
Lol!MikeL said:
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner
2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.
It already looks like they are clinging on.
In five weeks time, everyone goes on holiday for two months. When everyone comes back in Sept, things will start to settle down.
But a key thing will be by-election losses - if Con starts losing by-elections then it will look as if they are clinging on. So Thanet court case will be very important. If MP has to resign Lab will win by-election for certain.0 -
EM projected 400-440. FN only 2-5 seats!
PS at 15-25, PCF at 13-22
LR at 95-132
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS0 -
Safety car...0
-
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.0 -
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.0 -
public services have to be paid for, only the left don't want to pay for them. borrow borrow borrow.. magic money tree then .. bankruptcy.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.0 -
A good result for Macron but not too surprising given every French President since 2002 when presidential and parliamentary elections were first held in the same year has won a comfortable majority for their party in the Assemblee Nationale. Melenchon's party may have got a small boost from Corbyn's good performance on ThursdayParistonda said:EM projected 400-440. FN only 2-5 seats!
PS at 15-25, PCF at 13-22
LR at 95-132
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS0 -
-
Certainly agree about younger people.MaxPB said:
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
But Lab did well this time amongst middle aged people - say 35 to 44s. Many of them do own property. And they aren't going to vote for a 3% tax on value of their homes - if they know it's coming.0 -
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.0
-
I mean the Islamic extremist terror attacks!SirBenjamin said:isam said:
Because Corbyn knocks about with the kind of people that are responsible for the ideology that fuelled the attacksDanny565 said:
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.kyf_100 said:
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
Problem is that there is now an entire generation for whom the concept of terror attacks is completely unconnected to the IRA who they regard as an irrelevance from the history books at best, and possibly even in a positive 'freedom fighter' light.
However valid, the argument was never going to sway anyone under 35.0 -
He's got to be nice to farmers!TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
0 -
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
I think he'll do a very good job.0 -
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
Same here. I still waste my time taking pennies off then out of principle. Thank goodness for the Exchange.Alistair said:
I fear Betfair Sportsbook made have my card marked. I was dow to £3.55 Constituency bets at the end. (which was lucky as they were losers!)Andrew said:
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm very pleased that the bookies made money.
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?
I was also limited to £300 wins on B365 seat bets.0 -
+1Philip_Thompson said:It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM.
2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020
2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too.
2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
In fact, I'd go further. Print it out, and stick it somewhere so you are constantly reminded.0 -
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)0 -
The next election will either lead to a very heavy Tory defeat to socialism. Or, Corbyn might be found out (he hasn't changed, you know) the Tories pick a decent leader, reform their image, and stay in office.AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!0 -
Scottish fishermen should be pleasedCasino_Royale said:
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
I think he'll do a very good job.0 -
While that's true, it was only a few weeks ago that it looked like EM would be well short of a majority in the National Assembly, and would be dependent on either the PS or LR.HYUFD said:
A good result for Macron but not too surprising given every French President since 2002 when presidential and parliamentary elections were first held in the same year has won a comfortable majority for their party in the Assemblee Nationale. Melenchon's party may have got a small boost from Corbyn's good performance on ThursdayParistonda said:EM projected 400-440. FN only 2-5 seats!
PS at 15-25, PCF at 13-22
LR at 95-132
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS0 -
I won 7/8 w Betfair, who limited me to winning £50, and lost every bet w the shops who let me stake £200!atia2 said:
Same here. I still waste my time taking pennies off then out of principle. Thank goodness for the Exchange.Alistair said:
I fear Betfair Sportsbook made have my card marked. I was dow to £3.55 Constituency bets at the end. (which was lucky as they were losers!)Andrew said:
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm very pleased that the bookies made money.
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?
I was also limited to £300 wins on B365 seat bets.
0 -
Didnt he say that EEU rules forced collapse of family fishing business - he can get revenge nowBig_G_NorthWales said:
Scottish fishermen should be pleasedCasino_Royale said:
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
I think he'll do a very good job.
0 -
Because home ownership rates among that age group are much lower it used to be. Too many people are renting privately and too many baby boomers are leeching off working age people. 24-45 year olds feel (and are) very put upon in the UK, especially in the south east and London where property prices are very high and rental prices are very high. The baby boomers are ripping off their kids and grandkids. The Tories need to face up to this and until we do we won't win a majorityMikeL said:
Certainly agree about younger people.MaxPB said:
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
But Lab did well this time amongst middle aged people - say 35 to 44s. Many of them do own property. And they aren't going to vote for a 3% tax on value of their homes - if they know it's coming.0 -
Nothing has sent shivers down my spine more over the last few days about a potential return to power of Labour than that creep being all over the airwaves.Alistair said:I don't think Alastair Campbell is a fan
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/873811440347430912
Very very nasty man.0 -
And there was me thinking that self destruction was the USP?Casino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
If she hasn't already been asked (and I suspect she has as I don't follow it), someone needs to ask Ruth Davidson about fishing rights. It must have been a big thing in North East Scotland.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Scottish fishermen should be pleasedCasino_Royale said:
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
I think he'll do a very good job.0 -
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)0 -
On the third, your "my football team is on the march" tweets over recent days have been hilarious.SouthamObserver said:The way back for the Tories is a new leader, a soft Brexit and Labour hubris. The first is guaranteed, the second is achievable, the third is TBD.
0 -
Take it from me whose family are north east fishing folk - it istlg86 said:
If she hasn't already been asked (and I suspect she has as I don't follow it), someone needs to ask Ruth Davidson about fishing rights. It must have been a big thing in North East Scotland.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Scottish fishermen should be pleasedCasino_Royale said:
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
I think he'll do a very good job.0 -
Not to voters who don't own property?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)0 -
Why was it not toxic this time then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)0 -
That's a plausible outcome, but there are others.IanB2 said:
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.Pulpstar said:
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.atia2 said:
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.Jonathan said:Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.0 -
Are Boris and Give now mates sat around the cabinet table ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
Perhaps you should consider how it comes across when you make such observations relentlessly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
GoveYorkcity said:
Are Boris and Give now mates sat around the cabinet table ?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
It was never raised and drowned out by May's robotic campaign. It and the large corporation tax rises will be at the heart of the next electionBenpointer said:
Why was it not toxic this time then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)0 -
I suspect under current circumstances even Mr Johnson would, despite his enormous ego, have reservations about becoming Prime Minister. That mantle conjures up an image of pass-the-parcel. When the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel is Prime Minister. For the moment Mrs May must have lost that particular party game.Roger said:Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
0 -
I thought that too. Along with his favourite pin up, George Osborne, they are doing Labour's work for them. Osborne has gone far beyond legitimate criticism.Casino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
We used to accuse Corbyn of being a Tory sleeper agent. Perhaps TSE and Osborne are Labour sleeper agents.0 -
Naturally - but as always, the losers' emotions are far, far stronger than those who only benefit indirectly.MaxPB said:
Not to voters who don't own property?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
0 -
Wasn't Gove saying fishing should be devolved to Scotland before the EU Referendum?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Scottish fishermen should be pleasedCasino_Royale said:
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
I think he'll do a very good job.
'He said: "Holyrood would be strengthened if we left the EU.
"The Scottish Parliament would have new powers over fishing, agriculture, over some social areas and potentially over immigration."'
'Nicola Sturgeon has called the claim a "fib and a half" by the justice secretary.'
http://tinyurl.com/yd48396k
I suppose he can at least claim it wasn't written on the side of a bus.0 -
Look who has been proved right about Osborne's £9k per year tuition fees:TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
' David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.
Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.
"I simply don't agree that university should be this expensive," he told the Daily Telegraph.
“I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.
“People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.
“I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8185468/David-Davis-tuition-fees-encourage-students-to-rack-up-too-much-debt.html
You were warned.0 -
Almost every poll since the final round of the presidential election has given EM a comfortable majority, which is fair enough, Macron needs a big majority to see through his economic reformsrcs1000 said:
While that's true, it was only a few weeks ago that it looked like EM would be well short of a majority in the National Assembly, and would be dependent on either the PS or LR.HYUFD said:
A good result for Macron but not too surprising given every French President since 2002 when presidential and parliamentary elections were first held in the same year has won a comfortable majority for their party in the Assemblee Nationale. Melenchon's party may have got a small boost from Corbyn's good performance on ThursdayParistonda said:EM projected 400-440. FN only 2-5 seats!
PS at 15-25, PCF at 13-22
LR at 95-132
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS
0 -
It will be massive, believe me, as elderly have to sell their homes for a enormous tax grabMaxPB said:
Not to voters who don't own property?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)0 -
Nonsense.Jason said:
I thought that too. Along with his favourite pin up, George Osborne, they are doing Labour's work for them. Osborne has gone far beyond legitimate criticism.Casino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
We used to accuse Corbyn of being a Tory sleeper agent. Perhaps TSE and Osborne are Labour sleeper agents.
It is utterly ridiculous to expect party supporters to defend the indefensible just because it happens to be their own party. Loyalty has to be earned.
0 -
You know what you could do to help him get found out? Reverse Brexit. He be left as the only one still in favour and we'd return to the positioning of the early 80s with a split Labour party. Of course that would require a whole swathe of the Tory party to realise the error of their ways en masse.Casino_Royale said:
The next election will either lead to a very heavy Tory defeat to socialism. Or, Corbyn might be found out (he hasn't changed, you know) the Tories pick a decent leader, reform their image, and stay in office.AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!0 -
Given that Ms Leadsom, ummm, puffed up her own CV, I'm not sure I would give her any senior managerial role.Casino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
It's all very Dawn of the Dead. Zombies prowling the land having come back from the dead and ready to pounce. Meanwhile the government is in complete collapse.0
-
By god you're getting desperate now.williamglenn said:
You know what you could do to help him get found out? Reverse Brexit. He be left as the only one still in favour and we'd return to the positioning of the early 80s with a split Labour party. Of course that would require a whole swathe of the Tory party to realise the error of their ways en masse.Casino_Royale said:
The next election will either lead to a very heavy Tory defeat to socialism. Or, Corbyn might be found out (he hasn't changed, you know) the Tories pick a decent leader, reform their image, and stay in office.AndyJS said:
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.NorthofStoke said:I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that:
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!0 -
But who of course will all be delighted to see their parents struggling and possibly losing their houses because of it. It will be phone a Granny in reverse.MaxPB said:
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
I have a daughter of 16. In two years time she will be able to vote and I have already made very clear that the risk of Corbyn and his tax rises is that we may well lose the house she grew up in.0 -
It's a completed stupid appointment though, she is wholly unsuited for the role given. As is Gove at Environment, he needs a much bigger brief, he is the intellectual brains of our party.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps you should consider how it comes across when you make such observations relentlessly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.0 -
He should have triggered another vanity by election.another_richard said:
Look who has been proved right about Osborne's £9k per year tuition fees:TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
' David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.
Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.
"I simply don't agree that university should be this expensive," he told the Daily Telegraph.
“I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.
“People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.
“I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8185468/David-Davis-tuition-fees-encourage-students-to-rack-up-too-much-debt.html
You were warned.0 -
Perhaps, we then end up with a Corbyn and McDonnell majority, renationalisations, big tax increases, companies moving abroad as corporation tax is increased, unions flexing their muscles, the deficit and debt and borrowing increasing all coupled with a UK still leaving the EU and single market. We could be an economic basket case in no time and any half sensible Tory leader could make a quicker recovery than Lazarus. Though hopefully Boris taking over in the autumn, dumping dementia tax, restoring free school lunches etc and offering a more fudged Brexit could avert the disaster of a Corbyn governmentIanB2 said:
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.Pulpstar said:
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.atia2 said:
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.Jonathan said:Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
0 -
It may be toxic for many older/wealthier people, but it's pretty much impossible not to start seriously taxing property/wealth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
All of the three main parties have faced up to that.
The question is how to do it.
The most likely solution is the obvious (and least unpopular) one: Inflation.0 -
0
-
Of course you don't actually care about issues, just your party wing being on the winning side or being able to whine when they lose. It must truly shock you to know there are people out there who have principles and are willing to act on them.TheScreamingEagles said:
He should have triggered another vanity by election.another_richard said:
Look who has been proved right about Osborne's £9k per year tuition fees:TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
' David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.
Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.
"I simply don't agree that university should be this expensive," he told the Daily Telegraph.
“I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.
“People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.
“I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8185468/David-Davis-tuition-fees-encourage-students-to-rack-up-too-much-debt.html
You were warned.0 -
The hypocrisy of Tory leavers complaining about Osborne is breathtaking after the shit they threw at Cameron and Osborne during the referendum.
Incidentally...how did getting rid of the pm who won the only majority since 92 work out for you?0 -
One of the effects of big corporation tax rises will be to reduce dividends for pension companies investing in the future pensions of many ordinary working people thereby adversely affecting their pension returnsHYUFD said:
Perhaps, we then end up with a Corbyn and McDonnell majority, renationalisations, big tax increases, companies moving abroad as corporation tax is increased, unions flexing their muscles, the deficit and debt and borrowing increasing all coupled with a UK still leaving the EU and single market. We could be an economic basket case in no time and any half sensible Tory leader could make a quicker recovery than Lazarus. Though hopefully Boris taking over in the autumn, dumping dementia tax, restoring free school lunches etc and offering a more fudged Brexit could avert the disaster of a Corbyn governmentIanB2 said:
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.Pulpstar said:
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.atia2 said:
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.Jonathan said:Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.0 -
I don't think Corbyn could achieve a landslide on the sort of policy platform he's pushing. Blair was safe for Middle England. And the key to achieving the sort of outcome you describe would be a big revival in the Liberal Democrats, and tactical voting writ large.IanB2 said:
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.Pulpstar said:
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.atia2 said:
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.Jonathan said:Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
He could probably get to about 360-370 seats, and the Tories could lose seats like Basingstoke that they didn't in 1997, but not much further.
Besides which, history rarely repeats itself the same twice, and I'd imagine the Tories will be very wise to this threat.0 -
Large corporation taxes?!? - that really rattles Mr & Mrs Joe Public...Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was never raised and drowned out by May's robotic campaign. It and the large corporation tax rises will be at the heart of the next electionBenpointer said:
Why was it not toxic this time then?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
The proposal was to raise to 26% I think (for large profits) which compares well with 35-47% (USA), 33% (France), 32% (Japan), 29% (Germany). Doesn't sound like a deal-breaker to me tbh.
Obviously, the press barons will hate it, so LAbour might not be able to count on much support from most of the papers (oh).0 -
Loosing the house is scarying everyone shame your party proposed it for care in your own home.Richard_Tyndall said:
But who of course will all be delighted to see their parents struggling and possibly losing their houses because of it. It will be phone a Granny in reverse.MaxPB said:
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
I have a daughter of 16. In two years time she will be able to vote and I have already made very clear that the risk of Corbyn and his tax rises is that we may well lose the house she grew up in.0 -
Maybe, but we already have those voters in the bag (though maybe not this time because of Theresa's disaster policies). We need to broaden our appeal which means offering a positive choice, not making the other side look bad (ideally we should do both).Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be massive, believe me, as elderly have to sell their homes for a enormous tax grabMaxPB said:
Not to voters who don't own property?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)0 -
France has never been so divided - so say both PS and LR Leaders on France24 just now.
50% abstentions - I guess a new high
So, although France will be a one party state for the next five years do not mistake that for unanimity of purpose.
"France is unconvinced"
Poor showing of FN - I guess they provide a lot of the abstentions.
Strong condemnation of voting system.0 -
None of this matters if this administration lasts only a few months.MaxPB said:
It's a completed stupid appointment though, she is wholly unsuited for the role given. As is Gove at Environment, he needs a much bigger brief, he is the intellectual brains of our party.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps you should consider how it comes across when you make such observations relentlessly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
If the Tories allow May to cling on, then we really will be seeing a Corbyn government next time around.
0 -
It's an important role under any Brexit scenario.MaxPB said:
It's a completed stupid appointment though, she is wholly unsuited for the role given. As is Gove at Environment, he needs a much bigger brief, he is the intellectual brains of our party.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps you should consider how it comes across when you make such observations relentlessly.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observationCasino_Royale said:
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?TheScreamingEagles said:
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.Scott_P said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
But, equally, he might spend 6-12 months there and do some very good work that can be picked up by his successor when he moves onto another role under a new leader.0 -
You saw the response to the so called dementia tax - LVT will be just as much if not more toxicPong said:
It may be toxic for many older/wealthier people, but it's pretty much impossible not to start seriously taxing property/wealth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxicBenpointer said:
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.MikeL said:
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.Benpointer said:
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.MikeL said:I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
All of the three main parties have faced up to that.
The question is how to do it.
The most likely solution is the obvious (and least unpopular) one: Inflation.0
