One point I'd like to make is that those people who claim the Tories are doomed are forgetting the Tories were genuinely miles ahead at the locals. If they can lose support that quickly, they can get it back.
But not without a swift about turn, I accept that.
They were performing a high-wire act to channel the left over Brexit euphoria from June last year. Now that's gone it will not come back.
Other problem is they've completely lost the sense that they're the only sensible dependable game in town. That helped them get over the line in 2015 and looked likely to deliver a thumping win in 2017. Now, no Tory will be taken seriously when they argue a Labour govt will lead to chaos as the Tories have done so by losing not one but two electoral gambles designed for party political advantage. A reputation of sober stability won't come back for a very long time - if ever. Look at what the financial crisis and what it did to Labour's economic credibility - and that on the whole, wasn't unnecessarily self-inflicted.
The financial crisis effected the lives of most people, it hit hard in employment and in people's wallet. The last few years have been stable so the sensible, dependable is still usable. If inflation/interest rates shoot up in coming years that is when the Conservatives will in serious trouble. If the economy remains stable Brexit or not they will stay fairly solid. They could do with sorting the current boundaries for certain, a huge handicap.
Gove, he was going to be the greatest force for Justice and rehabilitation in this country until Theresa May sacked him.
Given this administration is likely to last a matter of months, does it matter ?
But I agree, this seems to be the one cabinet job at which Gove would have excelled (in sharp contrast to Education). He might also have made a not awful Foreign Secretary.
One point I'd like to make is that those people who claim the Tories are doomed are forgetting the Tories were genuinely miles ahead at the locals. If they can lose support that quickly, they can get it back.
But not without a swift about turn, I accept that.
They were performing a high-wire act to channel the left over Brexit euphoria from June last year. Now that's gone it will not come back.
Other problem is they've completely lost the sense that they're the only sensible dependable game in town. That helped them get over the line in 2015 and looked likely to deliver a thumping win in 2017. Now, no Tory will be taken seriously when they argue a Labour govt will lead to chaos as the Tories have done so by losing not one but two electoral gambles designed for party political advantage. A reputation of sober stability won't come back for a very long time - if ever. Look at what the financial crisis and what it did to Labour's economic credibility - and that on the whole, wasn't unnecessarily self-inflicted.
The financial crisis effected the lives of most people, it hit hard in employment and in people's wallet. The last few years have been stable so the sensible, dependable is still usable. If inflation/interest rates shoot up in coming years that is when the Conservatives will in serious trouble. If the economy remains stable Brexit or not they will stay fairly solid. They could do with sorting the current boundaries for certain, a huge handicap.
I don't believe that with current results , that the new boundaries will be very helpful at all to the Conservatives but we will have to see what the revised boundary proposals are when they are published .
Mr. Borough, more importantly, there's disproportionately more old women than men, so even if they feel equally about it, that's a skew of female voters against the Conservatives.
More evidence for my gender stereotype theory of TM's unpopularity.
TM really turns off young and middle aged women.
I don't think it's just tory branding/policy/leadership - I think a bit of it is personal.
She's the manipulative mother-in-law.
I think that a fair number of women are against May because she is not a mother. I personally do not giving a damn whether someone has kids, but I've seen it mentioned quite a bit, and mostly from it seems to come from women. I'm also fairly sure that being religious is net negative as well.
It's kind of weird that for all our modern civil rights and endless equalities legislation that there still are these very deep seated prejudices about a person's private life.
Of course it's even worse in the US where you had better be a God fearing Christian if you have a hope of being elected to high office.
According to theTimes, Labour did indeed narrowly win the women's vote.
Won by 5pts I think?
That's not narrow - that's substantial.
I wonder how it compares to previous elections? Has the gender split ever been more pronounced?
The Tories won the women's vote by 4% in 2015.
Thanks
More evidence for my gender stereotype theory of TM's unpopularity.
TM really turns off young and middle aged women.
I don't think it's just tory branding/policy/leadership - I think a bit of it is personal.
She's the manipulative mother-in-law.
I was told a few years ago, you have to win the support of the overs 50 women.
They called it the son/daughter-in-law test. Would you like this candidate as your son/daughter-in-law.
She's clearly funked the test.
Both Cameron and Blair passed that test.
Or was it the Dementia Tax? Older women are more aware of the awful consequences of this illness I suspect than older men.
Both, I went to the debate in Cambridge, I was told one of the focus groups had Mrs May as the annoying daughter in law who when she first visits her in laws is secretly wondering what the value of the house is, so she knows what the inheritance she'll be getting in a few years.
Gove, he was going to be the greatest force for Justice and rehabilitation in this country until Theresa May sacked him.
Given this administration is likely to last a matter of months, does it matter ?
But I agree, this seems to be the one cabinet job at which Gove would have excelled (in sharp contrast to Education). He might also have made a not awful Foreign Secretary.
He'd have made an excellent Chancellor.
Had Remain won last year, it is very likely that he would have become Chancellor before 2020
Her and Damian Green are close so I don't know does that indicate she has some control? Begs asking the question why she didn't have him in that role before?
One point I'd like to make is that those people who claim the Tories are doomed are forgetting the Tories were genuinely miles ahead at the locals. If they can lose support that quickly, they can get it back.
But not without a swift about turn, I accept that.
They were performing a high-wire act to channel the left over Brexit euphoria from June last year. Now that's gone it will not come back.
Other problem is they've completely lost the sense that they're the only sensible dependable game in town. That helped them get over the line in 2015 and looked likely to deliver a thumping win in 2017. Now, no Tory will be taken seriously when they argue a Labour govt will lead to chaos as the Tories have done so by losing not one but two electoral gambles designed for party political advantage. A reputation of sober stability won't come back for a very long time - if ever. Look at what the financial crisis and what it did to Labour's economic credibility - and that on the whole, wasn't unnecessarily self-inflicted.
The financial crisis effected the lives of most people, it hit hard in employment and in people's wallet. The last few years have been stable so the sensible, dependable is still usable. If inflation/interest rates shoot up in coming years that is when the Conservatives will in serious trouble. If the economy remains stable Brexit or not they will stay fairly solid. They could do with sorting the current boundaries for certain, a huge handicap.
I don't believe that with current results , that the new boundaries will be very helpful at all to the Conservatives but we will have to see what the revised boundary proposals are when they are published .
She'll not get a reduction to 600 past her party now imho.
Rumours swirling that Priti Patel either sacked or demoted
Wonder whether Priti will launch a leadership bid tomorrow?
Central plank of her bid bring back hanging?
LOL well obviously Priti wouldn't actually get anywhere but the point is it will only take one stalking horse to have a go and the whole thing will collapse for Mrs May as others throw their hats in the ring.
Anybody she sacks this afternoon could potentially end her career tomorrow. Must be a tough position to be in...
One point I'd like to make is that those people who claim the Tories are doomed are forgetting the Tories were genuinely miles ahead at the locals. If they can lose support that quickly, they can get it back.
But not without a swift about turn, I accept that.
They were performing a high-wire act to channel the left over Brexit euphoria from June last year. Now that's gone it will not come back.
Other problem is they've completely lost the sense that they're the only sensible dependable game in town. That helped them get over the line in 2015 and looked likely to deliver a thumping win in 2017. Now, no Tory will be taken seriously when they argue a Labour govt will lead to chaos as the Tories have done so by losing not one but two electoral gambles designed for party political advantage. A reputation of sober stability won't come back for a very long time - if ever. Look at what the financial crisis and what it did to Labour's economic credibility - and that on the whole, wasn't unnecessarily self-inflicted.
The financial crisis effected the lives of most people, it hit hard in employment and in people's wallet. The last few years have been stable so the sensible, dependable is still usable. If inflation/interest rates shoot up in coming years that is when the Conservatives will in serious trouble. If the economy remains stable Brexit or not they will stay fairly solid. They could do with sorting the current boundaries for certain, a huge handicap.
I don't believe that with current results , that the new boundaries will be very helpful at all to the Conservatives but we will have to see what the revised boundary proposals are when they are published .
She'll not get a reduction to 600 past her party now imho.
One point I'd like to make is that those people who claim the Tories are doomed are forgetting the Tories were genuinely miles ahead at the locals. If they can lose support that quickly, they can get it back.
But not without a swift about turn, I accept that.
They were performing a high-wire act to channel the left over Brexit euphoria from June last year. Now that's gone it will not come back.
Other problem is they've completely lost the sense that they're the only sensible dependable game in town. That helped them get over the line in 2015 and looked likely to deliver a thumping win in 2017. Now, no Tory will be taken seriously when they argue a Labour govt will lead to chaos as the Tories have done so by losing not one but two electoral gambles designed for party political advantage. A reputation of sober stability won't come back for a very long time - if ever. Look at what the financial crisis and what it did to Labour's economic credibility - and that on the whole, wasn't unnecessarily self-inflicted.
The financial crisis effected the lives of most people, it hit hard in employment and in people's wallet. The last few years have been stable so the sensible, dependable is still usable. If inflation/interest rates shoot up in coming years that is when the Conservatives will in serious trouble. If the economy remains stable Brexit or not they will stay fairly solid. They could do with sorting the current boundaries for certain, a huge handicap.
I don't believe that with current results , that the new boundaries will be very helpful at all to the Conservatives but we will have to see what the revised boundary proposals are when they are published .
She'll not get a reduction to 600 past her party now imho.
Might be easier now rather than harder?
Fewer (current) MPs to find alternative seats or jobs for after the trimming?
One of the (few) inconveniences of a big majority might have been buying off a larger number of turkeys voting for Christmas.
Rumours swirling that Priti Patel either sacked or demoted
Wonder whether Priti will launch a leadership bid tomorrow?
Central plank of her bid bring back hanging?
LOL well obviously Priti wouldn't actually get anywhere but the point is it will only take one stalking horse to have a go and the whole thing will collapse for Mrs May as others throw their hats in the ring.
Anybody she sacks this afternoon could potentially end her career tomorrow. Must be a tough position to be in...
It is a farce. May should just resign. It really is a horror show, played out before our eyes. Arlene Foster's puppet. No surrender!!
One point I'd like to make is that those people who claim the Tories are doomed are forgetting the Tories were genuinely miles ahead at the locals. If they can lose support that quickly, they can get it back.
But not without a swift about turn, I accept that.
They were performing a high-wire act to channel the left over Brexit euphoria from June last year. Now that's gone it will not come back.
Other problem is they've completely lost the sense that they're the only sensible dependable game in town. That helped them get over the line in 2015 and looked likely to deliver a thumping win in 2017. Now, no Tory will be taken seriously when they argue a Labour govt will lead to chaos as the Tories have done so by losing not one but two electoral gambles designed for party political advantage. A reputation of sober stability won't come back for a very long time - if ever. Look at what the financial crisis and what it did to Labour's economic credibility - and that on the whole, wasn't unnecessarily self-inflicted.
The financial crisis effected the lives of most people, it hit hard in employment and in people's wallet. The last few years have been stable so the sensible, dependable is still usable. If inflation/interest rates shoot up in coming years that is when the Conservatives will in serious trouble. If the economy remains stable Brexit or not they will stay fairly solid. They could do with sorting the current boundaries for certain, a huge handicap.
I don't believe that with current results , that the new boundaries will be very helpful at all to the Conservatives but we will have to see what the revised boundary proposals are when they are published .
They couldn't be any worse surely, in my seat Derby North the two most Derby Conservative wards were chopped off and allocated to rural seats, even though inside the City boundary. It was a great effort to take it in 2015 for the Conservatives.
Mr. Atia2, cite the hypocrisy. I don't approve of the DUP deal. I'd prefer a Con-Lib Dem deal. Unfortunately, Farron has decided the purpose of being elected is to oppose the government rather than to try and govern the country, and he's ruled out such a deal.
Sadly, for the Lib Dems, being elected is a purpose in itself.
Where did you get that idea, Chris? You are just repeating the usual Tory smears, I`m afraid.
A deal with the Lib Dems might have been possible, Mr Dancer. But if the Tories had wanted that, they ought to have treated the Lib Dems more fairy, both in their time in government and in the subsequent election. The trouble is that the Tories are totally arrogant, and never think ahead.
Likewise the Labour Party, who are now calling on all the smaller parties to fall into line and support them, without conceding anything at all. The Labour Party did nothing at all to help pass progressive measures in the Coalition years, not even when those policies had been in their own manifesto in the previous election. Short-sighted and arrogant.
Rumours swirling that Priti Patel either sacked or demoted
Wonder whether Priti will launch a leadership bid tomorrow?
Central plank of her bid bring back hanging?
LOL well obviously Priti wouldn't actually get anywhere but the point is it will only take one stalking horse to have a go and the whole thing will collapse for Mrs May as others throw their hats in the ring.
Anybody she sacks this afternoon could potentially end her career tomorrow. Must be a tough position to be in...
It is a farce. May should just resign. It really is a horror show, played out before our eyes. Arlene Foster's puppet. No surrender!!
and yet despite your bleating Labour fails to offer ordinary voters in NI a non sectarian alternative
One point I'd like to make is that those people who claim the Tories are doomed are forgetting the Tories were genuinely miles ahead at the locals. If they can lose support that quickly, they can get it back.
But not without a swift about turn, I accept that.
They were performing a high-wire act to channel the left over Brexit euphoria from June last year. Now that's gone it will not come back.
Other problem is they've completely lost the sense that they're the only sensible dependable game in town. That helped them get over the line in 2015 and looked likely to deliver a thumping win in 2017. Now, no Tory will be taken seriously when they argue a Labour govt will lead to chaos as the Tories have done so by losing not one but two electoral gambles designed for party political advantage. A reputation of sober stability won't come back for a very long time - if ever. Look at what the financial crisis and what it did to Labour's economic credibility - and that on the whole, wasn't unnecessarily self-inflicted.
The financial crisis effected the lives of most people, it hit hard in employment and in people's wallet. The last few years have been stable so the sensible, dependable is still usable. If inflation/interest rates shoot up in coming years that is when the Conservatives will in serious trouble. If the economy remains stable Brexit or not they will stay fairly solid. They could do with sorting the current boundaries for certain, a huge handicap.
I don't believe that with current results , that the new boundaries will be very helpful at all to the Conservatives but we will have to see what the revised boundary proposals are when they are published .
They couldn't be any worse surely, in my seat Derby North the two most Derby Conservative wards were chopped off and allocated to rural seats, even though inside the City boundary. It was a great effort to take it in 2015 for the Conservatives.
The Conservatives got 318 seats for 43% of the vote 7.4 seats per % Labour got 263 seats for 40% of the vote 6.6 seats per %
If ( a big if ) the new boundaries are a bit fairer then the Conservatives will suffer fractionally as the current boundaries are now slightly favourable to them
Rumours swirling that Priti Patel either sacked or demoted
Wonder whether Priti will launch a leadership bid tomorrow?
Central plank of her bid bring back hanging?
LOL well obviously Priti wouldn't actually get anywhere but the point is it will only take one stalking horse to have a go and the whole thing will collapse for Mrs May as others throw their hats in the ring.
Anybody she sacks this afternoon could potentially end her career tomorrow. Must be a tough position to be in...
It is a farce. May should just resign. It really is a horror show, played out before our eyes. Arlene Foster's puppet. No surrender!!
So... based largely on the issues with sampling and reported turnout (and tending towards the ICM side of things) and adding in a healthy chunk of uncertainty in Lib Dem target seats (and defences), plus a few other completely subjective best guesses and gut feels, I think the final seat tallies will be (low-most likely-high; note that "most likely" is NOT the centre of the range because a lot of these are skewed one way or the other):
More bullish on the LDs than I would be but, otherwise, very credible.
I feel similarly to you. But the caveat I have is based around the Scottish elections last year, where the SNP increased their vote, the LDs slipped to just 5% of the list vote, and yet doubled their FPTP constituencies.
I remember in the run up, there was much discussion about whether they would win *any* seats in Scotland.
Last year saw substantive tactical voting for the LDs in Scotland. Could we see similar this year at Westminster? If we did, it would likely hand half a dozen seats in Remainia to them. Is it likely? No. I reckon 10-11 is the most likely seat count, and 6-9 is more likely than 12-15. But it is possible.
I did umm and ah between 11 and 12 for the LDs for my "most likely" number and possibly skewed it towards 12 simply because of a tendency pressing away from one end.
It was because I felt the data from the polls would be far less useful for the LD seat share and went to seat-by-seat analysis based on demographics, voting history, and effort expended in them instead. Which seems to be pretty similar to what the YouGov model tried to do for every seat, with some success.
Now that can't possibly be true Alan! We've been reliably told the DUP are even more evilly baby-eating than the Tories!!
as I have pointed out yesterday if NI had normal politics it would vote majority Labour
And if my aunt had a willy she'd be my uncle etc etc. As it is, it offered a choice of terrorists and raging sectarian homophobes.
Why doesn't your party stand candidates in NI?
his party only exists in NI because trade unionists were about to slam them for racist discrimination agaisnt people from NI if they were denied representation
So... based largely on the issues with sampling and reported turnout (and tending towards the ICM side of things) and adding in a healthy chunk of uncertainty in Lib Dem target seats (and defences), plus a few other completely subjective best guesses and gut feels, I think the final seat tallies will be (low-most likely-high; note that "most likely" is NOT the centre of the range because a lot of these are skewed one way or the other):
More bullish on the LDs than I would be but, otherwise, very credible.
I feel similarly to you. But the caveat I have is based around the Scottish elections last year, where the SNP increased their vote, the LDs slipped to just 5% of the list vote, and yet doubled their FPTP constituencies.
I remember in the run up, there was much discussion about whether they would win *any* seats in Scotland.
Last year saw substantive tactical voting for the LDs in Scotland. Could we see similar this year at Westminster? If we did, it would likely hand half a dozen seats in Remainia to them. Is it likely? No. I reckon 10-11 is the most likely seat count, and 6-9 is more likely than 12-15. But it is possible.
I did umm and ah between 11 and 12 for the LDs for my "most likely" number and possibly skewed it towards 12 simply because of a tendency pressing away from one end.
It was because I felt the data from the polls would be far less useful for the LD seat share and went to seat-by-seat analysis based on demographics, voting history, and effort expended in them instead. Which seems to be pretty similar to what the YouGov model tried to do for every seat, with some success.
I got the Lib Dem figure exactly correct too at 12 but really it is luck , 500 odd extra votes and they would have had 16 .
Mr. Cooke, I'm damned glad the Lib Dems got 12 because I'd backed them to be over 11.5 seats (to offset being pretty green if they were under 10). 10 or 11 seats would've been poor for me.
So... based largely on the issues with sampling and reported turnout (and tending towards the ICM side of things) and adding in a healthy chunk of uncertainty in Lib Dem target seats (and defences), plus a few other completely subjective best guesses and gut feels, I think the final seat tallies will be (low-most likely-high; note that "most likely" is NOT the centre of the range because a lot of these are skewed one way or the other):
More bullish on the LDs than I would be but, otherwise, very credible.
I feel similarly to you. But the caveat I have is based around the Scottish elections last year, where the SNP increased their vote, the LDs slipped to just 5% of the list vote, and yet doubled their FPTP constituencies.
I remember in the run up, there was much discussion about whether they would win *any* seats in Scotland.
Last year saw substantive tactical voting for the LDs in Scotland. Could we see similar this year at Westminster? If we did, it would likely hand half a dozen seats in Remainia to them. Is it likely? No. I reckon 10-11 is the most likely seat count, and 6-9 is more likely than 12-15. But it is possible.
I did umm and ah between 11 and 12 for the LDs for my "most likely" number and possibly skewed it towards 12 simply because of a tendency pressing away from one end.
It was because I felt the data from the polls would be far less useful for the LD seat share and went to seat-by-seat analysis based on demographics, voting history, and effort expended in them instead. Which seems to be pretty similar to what the YouGov model tried to do for every seat, with some success.
I got the Lib Dem figure exactly correct too at 12 but really it is luck , 500 odd extra votes and they would have had 16 .
Yeah. I did insist on giving a range for that reason. A slightly higher Tory or Labour tide could have seen further reversals and squeeze beyond what the polls indicated, and slightly better luck or lower Tory or Labour tide could have seen a better outcome. To be honest, it was higher than I expected right on the eve of the poll.
According to a few posts on here the DUP are OK and its all about the numbers. So what?
Well here's a history lesson:
The Ulster Resistance Movement was set up by Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Snr., Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster. They can be seen wearing their red berets all over the internet!
The group colluded with the UVF, UDA and RHC (Red Hand Commando) to procure arms. In June 1987 the UVF stole £300,000 from a branch of the Northern Bank at Portadown. This money was given to Libya in exchange for 206x Vz.58 assault rifles, 94x Browning 9mm hand guns, 4x RPG Rocket Launchers and 62x warheads, 450 X RGD-5 grenades and 30,00 rounds of ammunition.
Nice guys?
Yes Corbyn's and Abbott's justification of the IRA is outrageous, but the connections these guys had to many unsavoury people are almost equally as distasteful.
For Mrs May to justify her plan by calling her party the Conservative and Unionist Party in this context was disingenuous too. The DUP are not the UUP and although David Trimble liked to put on an orange sash he was seen as a fairly decent guy by most people.
Campbell and Powell who were both key players in the facilitation of the Good Friday Agreement have both said this is BAD! Enda Kenny says it is BAD!
The conclusion must also be in both the short and longer term this is BAD for the Conservatives too!
Comments
More evidence for my gender stereotype theory of TM's unpopularity.
TM really turns off young and middle aged women.
I don't think it's just tory branding/policy/leadership - I think a bit of it is personal.
She's the manipulative mother-in-law.
Fast worker.
Corbyn is like a Humanities lecturer at a crap Uni...
They called it the son/daughter-in-law test. Would you like this candidate as your son/daughter-in-law.
She's clearly funked the test.
Both Cameron and Blair passed that test.
My mate just boiled it down to "women don't like May".
Whether fair or not, dunno.
But I agree, this seems to be the one cabinet job at which Gove would have excelled (in sharp contrast to Education). He might also have made a not awful Foreign Secretary.
It's kind of weird that for all our modern civil rights and endless equalities legislation that there still are these very deep seated prejudices about a person's private life.
Of course it's even worse in the US where you had better be a God fearing Christian if you have a hope of being elected to high office.
or maybe you could just stop spouting crap and look at voting records
"When the opposition get to decide the topic between debated, the DUP’s voting record is generally left-leaning and aligned with the Labour party"
https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/10/our-friends-in-the-north-the-dup-and-the-tories-arent-ideologically-close/
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBph3c7a-fVOp0nwzpl
Had Remain won last year, it is very likely that he would have become Chancellor before 2020
https://twitter.com/Portadownlol1/status/873638779910840320
Anybody she sacks this afternoon could potentially end her career tomorrow. Must be a tough position to be in...
Fewer (current) MPs to find alternative seats or jobs for after the trimming?
One of the (few) inconveniences of a big majority might have been buying off a larger number of turkeys voting for Christmas.
maybe just send all the pakistanis from mainland England there and they can all be happy
Id advise you buy a house on the North Coast
Should residents of Kent start learning French just in case?
A deal with the Lib Dems might have been possible, Mr Dancer. But if the Tories had wanted that, they ought to have treated the Lib Dems more fairy, both in their time in government and in the subsequent election. The trouble is that the Tories are totally arrogant, and never think ahead.
Likewise the Labour Party, who are now calling on all the smaller parties to fall into line and support them, without conceding anything at all. The Labour Party did nothing at all to help pass progressive measures in the Coalition years, not even when those policies had been in their own manifesto in the previous election. Short-sighted and arrogant.
theyre like the 2 in 3 voters in N England who Labour welcomed back last week
DOG RUN OVER OUTSIDE VET CLINIC
how do you explain that ?
if youre complaining about the outcome maybe you should offer people an alternative
Labour got 263 seats for 40% of the vote 6.6 seats per %
If ( a big if ) the new boundaries are a bit fairer then the Conservatives will suffer fractionally as the current boundaries are now slightly favourable to them
Coalition of Chaos = 315
SpockCorbyn yet again!Mr Job's having a go at the transgender now. The man's a bigot.
In answer to your unanswered question. Muslims are good bigots because they vote Labour.
I've no problem with anyone having an opinion and if they want to hate gays, they can (Muslims and DUPers both). As long as I'm not forced to agree.
has Labour had one ?
"BaJ is simply intolerant."
Spot on. But I forgive him.
They are safe-spacer snowflakes
however if his aunt had a willy I suspect she wouldnt think with it
100 years in the future, the irresistible force meets the immovable object. George Osborne has taken every job in Britain, except one.
Jeremy Hunt has been Health Secretary for over a century. But will his reign be ended by the all-consuming Osborne?
Has to be celebrated as part of Britishness
I did insist on giving a range for that reason. A slightly higher Tory or Labour tide could have seen further reversals and squeeze beyond what the polls indicated, and slightly better luck or lower Tory or Labour tide could have seen a better outcome.
To be honest, it was higher than I expected right on the eve of the poll.
Well here's a history lesson:
The Ulster Resistance Movement was set up by Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Snr., Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster. They can be seen wearing their red berets all over the internet!
The group colluded with the UVF, UDA and RHC (Red Hand Commando) to procure arms. In June 1987 the UVF stole £300,000 from a branch of the Northern Bank at Portadown. This money was given to Libya in exchange for 206x Vz.58 assault rifles, 94x Browning 9mm hand guns, 4x RPG Rocket Launchers and 62x warheads, 450 X RGD-5 grenades and 30,00 rounds of ammunition.
Nice guys?
Yes Corbyn's and Abbott's justification of the IRA is outrageous, but the connections these guys had to many unsavoury people are almost equally as distasteful.
For Mrs May to justify her plan by calling her party the Conservative and Unionist Party in this context was disingenuous too. The DUP are not the UUP and although David Trimble liked to put on an orange sash he was seen as a fairly decent guy by most people.
Campbell and Powell who were both key players in the facilitation of the Good Friday Agreement have both said this is BAD! Enda Kenny says it is BAD!
The conclusion must also be in both the short and longer term this is BAD for the Conservatives too!