Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Absolutely. Public opinion has become quite unpredictable.
Just like our political parties,jeremy and john liking hard brexit ;-)
The wee Charle Hawtry guy at the podium is exerting a weird fascination over me.
What were they really singing?
I'm told it was 'It's Raining Men' (or version of), which would indicate a hitherto undisclosed sense of irony in the Loyalist community.
It sounds a lot more like different lyrics set to Tiffany - I think we're alone now. Can't work out what they're saying though.
The lyric was "Arlene's on fire" which means it was probably a parody to the N. Ireland Euro 2016 song, "Will Greig's on fire" - so the song is Freed from Desire.
Bizarrely you're both right. The DUP were singing 'Arlene's on fire' to the tune of Gala's Freed from Desire - something they've since apologised for as the family of a person killed in an IRA bomb attack complained. link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37849771.
The audio on that tweeted clip however is a Rangers song to the tune of Tiffany's I Think We're Alone Now with the charing lyrics "We hate Catholics, everybody hates Roman Catholics" link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCPhprR8CuU
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.
I fear Betfair Sportsbook made have my card marked. I was dow to £3.55 Constituency bets at the end. (which was lucky as they were losers!)
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
Bizarrely you're both right. The DUP were singing 'Arlene's on fire' to the tune of Gala's Freed from Desire - something they've since apologised for as the family of a person killed in an IRA bomb attack complained. link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37849771.
Oh for goodness sake! I have absolutely no time for that Arlene Foster, but that's just ridiculous.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.
Some friends of ours recently moved from South Cambridgeshire to the Mansfield area.
She wrote a post on Facebook on Friday: "How can we move from Cambridgeshire to Mansfield and still have a Tory MP!"
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner 2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.
If May can get through the next 2-3 weeks there must be real potential for Labour to start causing problems for themselves again. It still astonishes me that the Conservatives managed to go through the entire campaign barely failing to mention the internal Labour problems over the last year.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.
Agreed. Predictions have made fools of all of us. And gambling on those self projected predictions appears to be even more foolish (which is why I don't go anywhere near the bookies).
Nothing is certain anymore, apart from uncertainty. If 40% of the British public can be seduced by extremists like Corbyn and McDonnell, then we are all in very serious trouble.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
Nah you see this is where you miss it entirely.
I am not an instinctive DUP voter. They are not a natural home for me at all. In fact all the posters here who have a background in NI look to be much the same in their outlook.
But the DUP are not what the hysterics claim for their own political ends. Having said that Unionists in NI have lived with the caricatures for decades. We don't give a fiddlers, we are wholly comfortable in our own skin. We exist.
You may be comfortable with that load of ignorant, bigoted garbage, but you shouldn't presume to speak for others in Northern Ireland, and you shouldn't expect people elsewhere to be happy with it either.
Unionists is not solely the DUP, read it. But, as I said, we hear the caricatures, have done for decades and we aren't going to be guilted.
We don't expect everyone to be happy with it, I'm don't think its ideal at all but its reality, its politics.
Get used to your new political overlords.
I think we can all make up our own minds about the DUP, thanks.
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner 2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.
A huge disadvantage for the Tories will be the question of competence. Look at the political mess we have had since 2015. They will no doubt ditch 'strong and stable' but it will haunt them for a few more years yet.
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
I posted this morning that I think Labour have peaked and are dependent on Conservatives not turning out or a mysterious redistribution of their votes for a better seat tally next time.
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner 2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.
french parliament results in 7 minutes. Macron majority seems nailed on, and french polls don't lie. But will it be a landslide? and will France Insoumise beat the socialists in seats?
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Well said, any one who thinks they can predict 2022 after an election that's seen Labour gain Canterbury and Conservatives gain Mansfield is either a true genius or an idiot.
Agreed. Predictions have made fools of all of us. And gambling on those self projected predictions appears to be even more foolish (which is why I don't go anywhere near the bookies).
Nothing is certain anymore, apart from uncertainty...
Well there's always death & taxes.... and May being dead PM walking.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
Indeed, plus Con will have two more big plusses vs this time:
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner 2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.
Lol!
It already looks like they are clinging on.
You're right - because everyone is still coming to terms with the GE result.
In five weeks time, everyone goes on holiday for two months. When everyone comes back in Sept, things will start to settle down.
But a key thing will be by-election losses - if Con starts losing by-elections then it will look as if they are clinging on. So Thanet court case will be very important. If MP has to resign Lab will win by-election for certain.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
public services have to be paid for, only the left don't want to pay for them. borrow borrow borrow.. magic money tree then .. bankruptcy.
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS
A good result for Macron but not too surprising given every French President since 2002 when presidential and parliamentary elections were first held in the same year has won a comfortable majority for their party in the Assemblee Nationale. Melenchon's party may have got a small boost from Corbyn's good performance on Thursday
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.
Certainly agree about younger people.
But Lab did well this time amongst middle aged people - say 35 to 44s. Many of them do own property. And they aren't going to vote for a 3% tax on value of their homes - if they know it's coming.
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
Because Corbyn knocks about with the kind of people that are responsible for the ideology that fuelled the attacks
Problem is that there is now an entire generation for whom the concept of terror attacks is completely unconnected to the IRA who they regard as an irrelevance from the history books at best, and possibly even in a positive 'freedom fighter' light.
However valid, the argument was never going to sway anyone under 35.
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.
I fear Betfair Sportsbook made have my card marked. I was dow to £3.55 Constituency bets at the end. (which was lucky as they were losers!)
Same here. I still waste my time taking pennies off then out of principle. Thank goodness for the Exchange.
I was also limited to £300 wins on B365 seat bets.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
+1
In fact, I'd go further. Print it out, and stick it somewhere so you are constantly reminded.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
The next election will either lead to a very heavy Tory defeat to socialism. Or, Corbyn might be found out (he hasn't changed, you know) the Tories pick a decent leader, reform their image, and stay in office.
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS
A good result for Macron but not too surprising given every French President since 2002 when presidential and parliamentary elections were first held in the same year has won a comfortable majority for their party in the Assemblee Nationale. Melenchon's party may have got a small boost from Corbyn's good performance on Thursday
While that's true, it was only a few weeks ago that it looked like EM would be well short of a majority in the National Assembly, and would be dependent on either the PS or LR.
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?
Limits are set per account at UK/European books. If they think you'll lose money, you'll find you can bet thousands. If you're betting intelligently (ie betting value), the limits will go down and down, eventually to zero.
I fear Betfair Sportsbook made have my card marked. I was dow to £3.55 Constituency bets at the end. (which was lucky as they were losers!)
Same here. I still waste my time taking pennies off then out of principle. Thank goodness for the Exchange.
I was also limited to £300 wins on B365 seat bets.
I won 7/8 w Betfair, who limited me to winning £50, and lost every bet w the shops who let me stake £200!
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.
I think he'll do a very good job.
Scottish fishermen should be pleased
Didnt he say that EEU rules forced collapse of family fishing business - he can get revenge now
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.
Certainly agree about younger people.
But Lab did well this time amongst middle aged people - say 35 to 44s. Many of them do own property. And they aren't going to vote for a 3% tax on value of their homes - if they know it's coming.
Because home ownership rates among that age group are much lower it used to be. Too many people are renting privately and too many baby boomers are leeching off working age people. 24-45 year olds feel (and are) very put upon in the UK, especially in the south east and London where property prices are very high and rental prices are very high. The baby boomers are ripping off their kids and grandkids. The Tories need to face up to this and until we do we won't win a majority
Nothing has sent shivers down my spine more over the last few days about a potential return to power of Labour than that creep being all over the airwaves.
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.
I think he'll do a very good job.
Scottish fishermen should be pleased
If she hasn't already been asked (and I suspect she has as I don't follow it), someone needs to ask Ruth Davidson about fishing rights. It must have been a big thing in North East Scotland.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.
I think he'll do a very good job.
Scottish fishermen should be pleased
If she hasn't already been asked (and I suspect she has as I don't follow it), someone needs to ask Ruth Davidson about fishing rights. It must have been a big thing in North East Scotland.
Take it from me whose family are north east fishing folk - it is
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
Why was it not toxic this time then?
It was never raised and drowned out by May's robotic campaign. It and the large corporation tax rises will be at the heart of the next election
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I suspect under current circumstances even Mr Johnson would, despite his enormous ego, have reservations about becoming Prime Minister. That mantle conjures up an image of pass-the-parcel. When the music stops whoever is left holding the parcel is Prime Minister. For the moment Mrs May must have lost that particular party game.
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
I thought that too. Along with his favourite pin up, George Osborne, they are doing Labour's work for them. Osborne has gone far beyond legitimate criticism.
We used to accuse Corbyn of being a Tory sleeper agent. Perhaps TSE and Osborne are Labour sleeper agents.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
Not to voters who don't own property?
Naturally - but as always, the losers' emotions are far, far stronger than those who only benefit indirectly.
@ShippersUnbound: Nothing says "I know I've got to bring you back but I really don't want to" like Defra. May grudgingly gives Gove the worst cabinet job.
He'll be charge of agriculture, fisheries and rural affairs. All will be affected by Brexit, even under the lightest scenario of EEA only.
I think he'll do a very good job.
Scottish fishermen should be pleased
Wasn't Gove saying fishing should be devolved to Scotland before the EU Referendum?
'He said: "Holyrood would be strengthened if we left the EU.
"The Scottish Parliament would have new powers over fishing, agriculture, over some social areas and potentially over immigration."'
'Nicola Sturgeon has called the claim a "fib and a half" by the justice secretary.'
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observation
Look who has been proved right about Osborne's £9k per year tuition fees:
' David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.
Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.
"I simply don't agree that university should be this expensive," he told the Daily Telegraph.
“I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.
“People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.
“I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” '
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
Not to voters who don't own property?
It will be massive, believe me, as elderly have to sell their homes for a enormous tax grab
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS
A good result for Macron but not too surprising given every French President since 2002 when presidential and parliamentary elections were first held in the same year has won a comfortable majority for their party in the Assemblee Nationale. Melenchon's party may have got a small boost from Corbyn's good performance on Thursday
While that's true, it was only a few weeks ago that it looked like EM would be well short of a majority in the National Assembly, and would be dependent on either the PS or LR.
Almost every poll since the final round of the presidential election has given EM a comfortable majority, which is fair enough, Macron needs a big majority to see through his economic reforms
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
I thought that too. Along with his favourite pin up, George Osborne, they are doing Labour's work for them. Osborne has gone far beyond legitimate criticism.
We used to accuse Corbyn of being a Tory sleeper agent. Perhaps TSE and Osborne are Labour sleeper agents.
Nonsense. It is utterly ridiculous to expect party supporters to defend the indefensible just because it happens to be their own party. Loyalty has to be earned.
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
The next election will either lead to a very heavy Tory defeat to socialism. Or, Corbyn might be found out (he hasn't changed, you know) the Tories pick a decent leader, reform their image, and stay in office.
You know what you could do to help him get found out? Reverse Brexit. He be left as the only one still in favour and we'd return to the positioning of the early 80s with a split Labour party. Of course that would require a whole swathe of the Tory party to realise the error of their ways en masse.
It's all very Dawn of the Dead. Zombies prowling the land having come back from the dead and ready to pounce. Meanwhile the government is in complete collapse.
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
There were almost certainly a lot of Conservative-leaning voters who didn't vote Tory at this election because they didn't think Theresa May deserved a big majority. But they would certainly vote Tory at the next election if there was a real chance of Corbyn winning, which no-one expected on 8th June.
The next election will either lead to a very heavy Tory defeat to socialism. Or, Corbyn might be found out (he hasn't changed, you know) the Tories pick a decent leader, reform their image, and stay in office.
You know what you could do to help him get found out? Reverse Brexit. He be left as the only one still in favour and we'd return to the positioning of the early 80s with a split Labour party. Of course that would require a whole swathe of the Tory party to realise the error of their ways en masse.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.
But who of course will all be delighted to see their parents struggling and possibly losing their houses because of it. It will be phone a Granny in reverse.
I have a daughter of 16. In two years time she will be able to vote and I have already made very clear that the risk of Corbyn and his tax rises is that we may well lose the house she grew up in.
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observation
Perhaps you should consider how it comes across when you make such observations relentlessly.
It's a completed stupid appointment though, she is wholly unsuited for the role given. As is Gove at Environment, he needs a much bigger brief, he is the intellectual brains of our party.
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observation
Look who has been proved right about Osborne's £9k per year tuition fees:
' David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.
Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.
"I simply don't agree that university should be this expensive," he told the Daily Telegraph.
“I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.
“People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.
“I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” '
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.
Perhaps, we then end up with a Corbyn and McDonnell majority, renationalisations, big tax increases, companies moving abroad as corporation tax is increased, unions flexing their muscles, the deficit and debt and borrowing increasing all coupled with a UK still leaving the EU and single market. We could be an economic basket case in no time and any half sensible Tory leader could make a quicker recovery than Lazarus. Though hopefully Boris taking over in the autumn, dumping dementia tax, restoring free school lunches etc and offering a more fudged Brexit could avert the disaster of a Corbyn government
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
It may be toxic for many older/wealthier people, but it's pretty much impossible not to start seriously taxing property/wealth.
All of the three main parties have faced up to that.
The question is how to do it.
The most likely solution is the obvious (and least unpopular) one: Inflation.
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observation
Look who has been proved right about Osborne's £9k per year tuition fees:
' David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.
Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.
"I simply don't agree that university should be this expensive," he told the Daily Telegraph.
“I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.
“People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.
“I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” '
He should have triggered another vanity by election.
Of course you don't actually care about issues, just your party wing being on the winning side or being able to whine when they lose. It must truly shock you to know there are people out there who have principles and are willing to act on them.
The hypocrisy of Tory leavers complaining about Osborne is breathtaking after the shit they threw at Cameron and Osborne during the referendum. Incidentally...how did getting rid of the pm who won the only majority since 92 work out for you?
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.
Perhaps, we then end up with a Corbyn and McDonnell majority, renationalisations, big tax increases, companies moving abroad as corporation tax is increased, unions flexing their muscles, the deficit and debt and borrowing increasing all coupled with a UK still leaving the EU and single market. We could be an economic basket case in no time and any half sensible Tory leader could make a quicker recovery than Lazarus. Though hopefully Boris taking over in the autumn, dumping dementia tax, restoring free school lunches etc and offering a more fudged Brexit could avert the disaster of a Corbyn government
One of the effects of big corporation tax rises will be to reduce dividends for pension companies investing in the future pensions of many ordinary working people thereby adversely affecting their pension returns
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.
A scenario that ends with a Tory wipeout worse than 1997 is perfectly conceivable. Tories and DUP press on, on their own, with a hard Brexit (with some concessions to NI), the UK takes an economic hit compounded by the EU's intention that we should be seen to suffer from our departure, the ensuing downturn is owned entirely by the Tories, compounding the serious damage to their credibility and reputation delivered last Thursday; when the election finally comes, all Blair's records are broken.
I don't think Corbyn could achieve a landslide on the sort of policy platform he's pushing. Blair was safe for Middle England. And the key to achieving the sort of outcome you describe would be a big revival in the Liberal Democrats, and tactical voting writ large.
He could probably get to about 360-370 seats, and the Tories could lose seats like Basingstoke that they didn't in 1997, but not much further.
Besides which, history rarely repeats itself the same twice, and I'd imagine the Tories will be very wise to this threat.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
Why was it not toxic this time then?
It was never raised and drowned out by May's robotic campaign. It and the large corporation tax rises will be at the heart of the next election
Large corporation taxes?!? - that really rattles Mr & Mrs Joe Public...
The proposal was to raise to 26% I think (for large profits) which compares well with 35-47% (USA), 33% (France), 32% (Japan), 29% (Germany). Doesn't sound like a deal-breaker to me tbh.
Obviously, the press barons will hate it, so LAbour might not be able to count on much support from most of the papers (oh).
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
No I don't think so. The fear factor of taxes have gone, especially among younger people who don't own property.
But who of course will all be delighted to see their parents struggling and possibly losing their houses because of it. It will be phone a Granny in reverse.
I have a daughter of 16. In two years time she will be able to vote and I have already made very clear that the risk of Corbyn and his tax rises is that we may well lose the house she grew up in.
Loosing the house is scarying everyone shame your party proposed it for care in your own home.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
Not to voters who don't own property?
It will be massive, believe me, as elderly have to sell their homes for a enormous tax grab
Maybe, but we already have those voters in the bag (though maybe not this time because of Theresa's disaster policies). We need to broaden our appeal which means offering a positive choice, not making the other side look bad (ideally we should do both).
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observation
Perhaps you should consider how it comes across when you make such observations relentlessly.
It's a completed stupid appointment though, she is wholly unsuited for the role given. As is Gove at Environment, he needs a much bigger brief, he is the intellectual brains of our party.
None of this matters if this administration lasts only a few months. If the Tories allow May to cling on, then we really will be seeing a Corbyn government next time around.
So all the Commons Brexit stuff will be managed and overseen by Andrea Leadsom.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
At what point will you stop attacking your own party?
It's not an attack, it's a humourous observation
Perhaps you should consider how it comes across when you make such observations relentlessly.
It's a completed stupid appointment though, she is wholly unsuited for the role given. As is Gove at Environment, he needs a much bigger brief, he is the intellectual brains of our party.
It's an important role under any Brexit scenario.
But, equally, he might spend 6-12 months there and do some very good work that can be picked up by his successor when he moves onto another role under a new leader.
I think one area that'll be much bigger next time is Lab tax plans.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
Haha how many potential labour voters will be worried about a land value tax / garden tax? Suspect the vast majority who would be affected would either never vote labour anyway or (like me) recognise that public services have to be paid for and are chronically underfunded.
I'm not sure that's right - Lab did particularly well this time amongst middle classes.
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
Well, you may be right, MikeL - time will tell I guess - but from my experience here in Tory Dorsetshire many more people worry about services (especially the NHS which is very important to the over 50s) than taxes.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
It will be his dementia tax in the next election. It is absolutely toxic
It may be toxic for many older/wealthier people, but it's pretty much impossible not to start seriously taxing property/wealth.
All of the three main parties have faced up to that.
The question is how to do it.
The most likely solution is the obvious (and least unpopular) one: Inflation.
You saw the response to the so called dementia tax - LVT will be just as much if not more toxic
Comments
The audio on that tweeted clip however is a Rangers song to the tune of Tiffany's I Think We're Alone Now with the charing lyrics "We hate Catholics, everybody hates Roman Catholics" link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCPhprR8CuU
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/873958079871635456
She wrote a post on Facebook on Friday: "How can we move from Cambridgeshire to Mansfield and still have a Tory MP!"
1) A leader who is a much better campaigner
2) A far more attractive manifesto with no negatives - no social care changes, no free school lunch changes, no pension changes, no winter fuel changes etc.
Set against that Lab and Corbyn clearly have huge momentum.
Con must avoid looking as if they are clinging on - but if a new leader calls a GE in their honeymoon period they'll have a decent chance.
Betfair Most seats at next GE is 50/50 and that looks fair to me.
Nothing is certain anymore, apart from uncertainty. If 40% of the British public can be seduced by extremists like Corbyn and McDonnell, then we are all in very serious trouble.
It already looks like they are clinging on.
The dementia tax was a disaster for Con this time and cost them a lot of votes.
The garden tax could easily do the same to Lab next time.
Garden tax didn't affect Lab this time as it was overshadowed by all the negatives in the Con manifesto. But without these negatives, it'll be far easier for Con to frighten people about Lab's tax plans.
Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA,.
Theresa May does have a sense of humour.
In five weeks time, everyone goes on holiday for two months. When everyone comes back in Sept, things will start to settle down.
But a key thing will be by-election losses - if Con starts losing by-elections then it will look as if they are clinging on. So Thanet court case will be very important. If MP has to resign Lab will win by-election for certain.
PS at 15-25, PCF at 13-22
LR at 95-132
Melenchon's party appears to have achieved more votes than PS
As I understand it LVT will affect all home owners. Lab certainly can't win a GE without the votes of home owners.
But Lab did well this time amongst middle aged people - say 35 to 44s. Many of them do own property. And they aren't going to vote for a 3% tax on value of their homes - if they know it's coming.
I think he'll do a very good job.
I was also limited to £300 wins on B365 seat bets.
In fact, I'd go further. Print it out, and stick it somewhere so you are constantly reminded.
You made another good point in your earlier post:
"Of course if Lab is sensible they would just drop any mention of the Land Value Tax from their manifesto. But that's not Corbyn's style - he's very honest about what he wants to do."
Don't underestimate how refreshing that is to many voters :-)
Very very nasty man.
We used to accuse Corbyn of being a Tory sleeper agent. Perhaps TSE and Osborne are Labour sleeper agents.
'He said: "Holyrood would be strengthened if we left the EU.
"The Scottish Parliament would have new powers over fishing, agriculture, over some social areas and potentially over immigration."'
'Nicola Sturgeon has called the claim a "fib and a half" by the justice secretary.'
http://tinyurl.com/yd48396k
I suppose he can at least claim it wasn't written on the side of a bus.
' David Davis, the former shadow home secretary and senior Conservative MP, is to vote against Government plans to raise tuition fees, he disclosed last night.
Mr Davis said he was concerned that forcing students to pay up to £9,000 a year would hamper social mobility and saddle young people with excessive debts.
"I simply don't agree that university should be this expensive," he told the Daily Telegraph.
“I’m concerned about the effect this would have on social mobility and the huge level of debt we are encouraging young people to take on.
“People in their twenties are very much more indebted than I was when I was a student and that is something I don’t believe we can allow to continue.
“I have always been against tuition fees. In 2005 our policy was abolition and I was one of the drivers behind that.” '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/universityeducation/8185468/David-Davis-tuition-fees-encourage-students-to-rack-up-too-much-debt.html
You were warned.
It is utterly ridiculous to expect party supporters to defend the indefensible just because it happens to be their own party. Loyalty has to be earned.
I have a daughter of 16. In two years time she will be able to vote and I have already made very clear that the risk of Corbyn and his tax rises is that we may well lose the house she grew up in.
All of the three main parties have faced up to that.
The question is how to do it.
The most likely solution is the obvious (and least unpopular) one: Inflation.
Incidentally...how did getting rid of the pm who won the only majority since 92 work out for you?
He could probably get to about 360-370 seats, and the Tories could lose seats like Basingstoke that they didn't in 1997, but not much further.
Besides which, history rarely repeats itself the same twice, and I'd imagine the Tories will be very wise to this threat.
The proposal was to raise to 26% I think (for large profits) which compares well with 35-47% (USA), 33% (France), 32% (Japan), 29% (Germany). Doesn't sound like a deal-breaker to me tbh.
Obviously, the press barons will hate it, so LAbour might not be able to count on much support from most of the papers (oh).
50% abstentions - I guess a new high
So, although France will be a one party state for the next five years do not mistake that for unanimity of purpose.
"France is unconvinced"
Poor showing of FN - I guess they provide a lot of the abstentions.
Strong condemnation of voting system.
If the Tories allow May to cling on, then we really will be seeing a Corbyn government next time around.
But, equally, he might spend 6-12 months there and do some very good work that can be picked up by his successor when he moves onto another role under a new leader.