I've no problem with anyone having an opinion and if they want to hate gays, they can (Muslims and DUPers both). As long as I'm not forced to agree.
That's the thing about a free society. You're allowed to be as stupid, bigoted and prejudiced as you like, subject to the necessary constraints on inciting other stupid, bigoted and prejudiced people.
However, that kind of thing is best not combined with a political career as the leader of a liberal party.
Rumours swirling that Priti Patel either sacked or demoted
Wonder whether Priti will launch a leadership bid tomorrow?
Central plank of her bid bring back hanging?
LOL well obviously Priti wouldn't actually get anywhere but the point is it will only take one stalking horse to have a go and the whole thing will collapse for Mrs May as others throw their hats in the ring.
Anybody she sacks this afternoon could potentially end her career tomorrow. Must be a tough position to be in...
It is a farce. May should just resign. It really is a horror show, played out before our eyes. Arlene Foster's puppet. No surrender!!
According to a few posts on here the DUP are OK and its all about the numbers. So what?
Well here's a history lesson:
The Ulster Resistance Movement was set up by Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Snr., Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster. They can be seen wearing their red berets all over the internet!
The group colluded with the UVF, UDA and RHC (Red Hand Commando) to procure arms. In June 1987 the UVF stole £300,000 from a branch of the Northern Bank at Portadown. This money was given to Libya in exchange for 206x Vz.58 assault rifles, 94x Browning 9mm hand guns, 4x RPG Rocket Launchers and 62x warheads, 450 X RGD-5 grenades and 30,00 rounds of ammunition.
Nice guys?
Yes Corbyn's and Abbott's justification of the IRA is outrageous, but the connections these guys had to many unsavoury people are almost equally as distasteful.
For Mrs May to justify her plan by calling her party the Conservative and Unionist Party in this context was disingenuous too. The DUP are not the UUP and although David Trimble liked to put on an orange sash he was seen as a fairly decent guy by most people.
Campbell and Powell who were both key players in the facilitation of the Good Friday Agreement have both said this is BAD! Enda Kenny says it is BAD!
The conclusion must also be in both the short and longer term this is BAD for the Conservatives too!
the DUP are undoubtedly crass, but can you actually name someone they murdered ?
the seminal volume of ulsters death " Lost Lives" doesnt name a single one
the reason the loyalist paramilitaries dilsike the DUP is they see them as a duplicitous bunch of cordite sniffers who like to wind things up and then bugger off
thats why the paramilitaries have their own political party
and if you dont like dealing with the DUP - and Im not a supporter - then maybe you shouldnt have knifed hulme and trimble and ceated the conditions in which the moderate centre crumbled
God Save the Queen got the treatment at Hampden Park yesterday.
"Jimmy Saville, he's one of your own" got a fair airing too!
The Leeds fans got into trouble for singing "Jimmy Savile, he's one of our own" a few years ago. I thought that was a bit harsh as it was clearly self effacing rather an endorsement of Savile.
Gove, he was going to be the greatest force for Justice and rehabilitation in this country until Theresa May sacked him.
Given this administration is likely to last a matter of months, does it matter ?
But I agree, this seems to be the one cabinet job at which Gove would have excelled (in sharp contrast to Education). He might also have made a not awful Foreign Secretary.
He'd have made an excellent Chancellor.
Had Remain won last year, it is very likely that he would have become Chancellor before 2020
I've never known Gove have much to say about the economy.
According to a few posts on here the DUP are OK and its all about the numbers. So what?
Well here's a history lesson:
The Ulster Resistance Movement was set up by Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Snr., Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster. They can be seen wearing their red berets all over the internet!
The group colluded with the UVF, UDA and RHC (Red Hand Commando) to procure arms. In June 1987 the UVF stole £300,000 from a branch of the Northern Bank at Portadown. This money was given to Libya in exchange for 206x Vz.58 assault rifles, 94x Browning 9mm hand guns, 4x RPG Rocket Launchers and 62x warheads, 450 X RGD-5 grenades and 30,00 rounds of ammunition.
Nice guys?
Yes Corbyn's and Abbott's justification of the IRA is outrageous, but the connections these guys had to many unsavoury people are almost equally as distasteful.
For Mrs May to justify her plan by calling her party the Conservative and Unionist Party in this context was disingenuous too. The DUP are not the UUP and although David Trimble liked to put on an orange sash he was seen as a fairly decent guy by most people.
Campbell and Powell who were both key players in the facilitation of the Good Friday Agreement have both said this is BAD! Enda Kenny says it is BAD!
The conclusion must also be in both the short and longer term this is BAD for the Conservatives too!
the DUP are undoubtedly crass, but can you actually name someone they murdered ?
the seminal volume of ulsters death " Lost Lives" doesnt name a single one
the reason the loyalist paramilitaries dilsike the DUP is they see them as a duplicitous bunch of cordite sniffers who like to wind things up and then bugger off
thats why the paramilitaries have their own political party
and if you dont like dealing with the DUP - and Im not a supporter - then maybe you shouldnt have knifed hulme and trimble and ceated the conditions in which the moderate centre crumbled
According to a few posts on here the DUP are OK and its all about the numbers. So what?
Well here's a history lesson:
The Ulster Resistance Movement was set up by Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Snr., Peter Robinson and Ivan Foster. They can be seen wearing their red berets all over the internet!
The group colluded with the UVF, UDA and RHC (Red Hand Commando) to procure arms. In June 1987 the UVF stole £300,000 from a branch of the Northern Bank at Portadown. This money was given to Libya in exchange for 206x Vz.58 assault rifles, 94x Browning 9mm hand guns, 4x RPG Rocket Launchers and 62x warheads, 450 X RGD-5 grenades and 30,00 rounds of ammunition.
Nice guys?
Yes Corbyn's and Abbott's justification of the IRA is outrageous, but the connections these guys had to many unsavoury people are almost equally as distasteful.
For Mrs May to justify her plan by calling her party the Conservative and Unionist Party in this context was disingenuous too. The DUP are not the UUP and although David Trimble liked to put on an orange sash he was seen as a fairly decent guy by most people.
Campbell and Powell who were both key players in the facilitation of the Good Friday Agreement have both said this is BAD! Enda Kenny says it is BAD!
The conclusion must also be in both the short and longer term this is BAD for the Conservatives too!
In fact Pete the current DUP is made up of a lot of UUP types these days. The influx into it, in particular at back office level has been in a key picturemaker for the party. Arlene Foster was in the UUP. How do you think she got to the top whilst there were so many possible DUP lifers?
Campbell and Powell seemed to have no problem dealing with any of them did they, including terrorists on both sides They also left us with a completely fucked up mess of a political system at Stormont. They have f**K all to conclude that they have some kind of superiority to speak on the subject.
The people speak, they vote, they voted in 10 DUP MPs. The rise of the DUP was partially due to the fiddling around of the then Labour government, the helped create a vacuum in the centre in the drive to ensure that the likes of Sinn Fein and loyalist paramilitaries were kept in.
Alanbrooke is right, Ulster Resistance was a serious black mark in the 1980s (they didn't kill anyone or even try to) but you miss two pieces of history. The DUP went on to disown it once it got caught up in gun running because it had to. At that time the DUP was very much the junior in the Unionist camp because as someone who's name escapes me pointed out, Unionists tend not to vote for terrorists. Large sections of the Unionist population were not up for it, not at all.
The rise of the DUP as the dominant force in NI Unionism was a direct result of a flawed system and a flawed process one that had Tony Blair & his cohorts prints all over it.
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
The group colluded with the UVF, UDA and RHC (Red Hand Commando) to procure arms. In June 1987 the UVF stole £300,000 from a branch of the Northern Bank at Portadown. This money was given to Libya in exchange for 206x Vz.58 assault rifles, 94x Browning 9mm hand guns, 4x RPG Rocket Launchers and 62x warheads, 450 X RGD-5 grenades and 30,00 rounds of ammunition.
Yes, well, I'm sure this doesn't compare with Corbyn actually talking to people in Sinn Fein.
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
My wife and I have decided to watch less news and let it wash over us.
I booked an autumn cruise to the Western med as I may as well enjoy some of our monies before we have to pay for our dementia care as it is unlikely any change to the system will take place anytime soon.
I wish everyone happy betting and will keep up with the blogs but maybe post less
By rights they're either still pissed at the celebration party or waking up on a stranger's couch right about now clutching a couple of empty bottles of champagne.
Incidentally, Kezia Dugdale (much to my surprise) has given two of the best speeches I've heard in the Scottish parliament, both with incredible sick burns of Ruth Davidson - if this DUP thing happens then I smell a third incoming and the media might actually make it a big deal this time.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
To be honest, the only thing that is cheering me up at the moment is the potential that Nicola Sturgeon may kick Indyref2 in the long long grass.
The Nat reaction is going to be sight to be behold.
If she does kick it into the long grass, I'll understand it, she's not stupid, losing a second Indyref really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead end Scottish independence for a proper generation.
Just a point. How weak is Theresa that she cannot move Jeremy Hunt out of health. This was an opportunity to show she was listening but opportunity missed
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
Hung.
I don't see a way out of this for the Tories. If there is an election in six months, it will be a Labour majority because the Tories no longer look like winners. A lot of people say "well labour only did as well as they did because the people voting for them thought Corbyn could never win, so they voted to reduce the size of the Con majority".
I think it's the other way round - I think an awful lot of people held their noses and voted Tory because it felt like it was the only option on the table. It was either a Con majority or a "coalition of chaos". Now the Tories have delivered a coalition of chaos and got into bed with some very unsavoury types Labour look like they're within spitting distance of an overall majority next time round.
And if we go a full two years with the Tories in a minority propped up by the DUP the Tories will only look weaker and weaker and more and more ineffective as a constant drip-drip of U turns and unhappy compromises makes them look no longer fit for power. Definite Labour majority if not landslide when that happens.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
For what its worth, I did post at about 7PM on Thursday that I thought Con would loos seats net and possibly be a hung parliament. Unfortunately I didn't place any money on it
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
For what its worth, I did post at about 7PM on Thursday that I thought Con would loos seats net and possibly be a hung parliament. Unfortunately I didn't place any money on it
I did predict a hung parliament at 8.00pm on Thursday but I do not bet
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
Hung.
I don't see a way out of this for the Tories. If there is an election in six months, it will be a Labour majority because the Tories no longer look like winners. A lot of people say "well labour only did as well as they did because the people voting for them thought Corbyn could never win, so they voted to reduce the size of the Con majority".
I think it's the other way round - I think an awful lot of people held their noses and voted Tory because it felt like it was the only option on the table. It was either a Con majority or a "coalition of chaos". Now the Tories have delivered a coalition of chaos and got into bed with some very unsavoury types Labour look like they're within spitting distance of an overall majority next time round.
And if we go a full two years with the Tories in a minority propped up by the DUP the Tories will only look weaker and weaker and more and more ineffective as a constant drip-drip of U turns and unhappy compromises makes them look no longer fit for power. Definite Labour majority if not landslide when that happens.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
The polls thought that too didn't they? As with Jo Cox, they gave the "right" answer post attack, but were wrong
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
To be honest, the only thing that is cheering me up at the moment is the potential that Nicola Sturgeon may kick Indyref2 in the long long grass.
The Nat reaction is going to be sight to be behold.
If she does kick it into the long grass, I'll understand it, she's not stupid, losing a second Indyref really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead end Scottish independence for a proper generation.
It's already in the long grass of until the terms of BREXIT are clear !
Just a point. How weak is Theresa that she cannot move Jeremy Hunt out of health. This was an opportunity to show she was listening but opportunity missed
It is not in her gift. To sack someone even as poor and unpopular as Hunt, means he could challenge her. Then it would be open season.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
Nah you see this is where you miss it entirely.
I am not an instinctive DUP voter. They are not a natural home for me at all. In fact all the posters here who have a background in NI look to be much the same in their outlook.
But the DUP are not what the hysterics claim for their own political ends. Having said that Unionists in NI have lived with the caricatures for decades. We don't give a fiddlers, we are wholly comfortable in our own skin. We exist.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
To be honest, the only thing that is cheering me up at the moment is the potential that Nicola Sturgeon may kick Indyref2 in the long long grass.
The Nat reaction is going to be sight to be behold.
If she does kick it into the long grass, I'll understand it, she's not stupid, losing a second Indyref really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead end Scottish independence for a proper generation.
Calling the election might well have saved the union for now.
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
Hung.
I don't see a way out of this for the Tories. If there is an election in six months, it will be a Labour majority because the Tories no longer look like winners. A lot of people say "well labour only did as well as they did because the people voting for them thought Corbyn could never win, so they voted to reduce the size of the Con majority".
I think it's the other way round - I think an awful lot of people held their noses and voted Tory because it felt like it was the only option on the table. It was either a Con majority or a "coalition of chaos". Now the Tories have delivered a coalition of chaos and got into bed with some very unsavoury types Labour look like they're within spitting distance of an overall majority next time round.
And if we go a full two years with the Tories in a minority propped up by the DUP the Tories will only look weaker and weaker and more and more ineffective as a constant drip-drip of U turns and unhappy compromises makes them look no longer fit for power. Definite Labour majority if not landslide when that happens.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
The polls thought that too didn't they? As with Jo Cox, they gave the "right" answer post attack, but were wrong
It's possible the polls got the movement right but the absolute shares wrong though. Maybe Manchester and London Bridge prevented a Corbyn minority government.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
Nah you see this is where you miss it entirely.
I am not an instinctive DUP voter. They are not a natural home for me at all. In fact all the posters here who have a background in NI look to be much the same in their outlook.
But the DUP are not what the hysterics claim for their own political ends. Having said that Unionists in NI have lived with the caricatures for decades. We don't give a fiddlers, we are wholly comfortable in our own skin. We exist.
Tough.
Labour might bitch and moan about the Conservatives doing a deal with the DUP, but by electing a friend of Sinn Fein, they immediately put 10 MPs on the other side of the political divide.
Part of the price of electing Jeremy Corbyn - power was always that further from reach.
The wee Charle Hawtry guy at the podium is exerting a weird fascination over me.
What were they really singing?
I'm told it was 'It's Raining Men' (or version of), which would indicate a hitherto undisclosed sense of irony in the Loyalist community.
It sounds a lot more like different lyrics set to Tiffany - I think we're alone now. Can't work out what they're saying though.
That video dubs football fans singing "We hate catholics" to the tume of "I think we're alone now" onto footage of the DUP singing "Arlenes on Fire", or the "na na na na na na na na na na" bit of it. "Free from desire" I think is the original song
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
For what its worth, I did post at about 7PM on Thursday that I thought Con would loos seats net and possibly be a hung parliament. Unfortunately I didn't place any money on it
I did predict a hung parliament at 8.00pm on Thursday but I do not bet
Apologies to you and Big Rich missed those comments .I for one never saw it coming .Another exit poll shock for me.
I booked an autumn cruise to the Western med as I may as well enjoy some of our monies before we have to pay for our dementia care as it is unlikely any change to the system will take place anytime soon.
The Tory proposal would have been fairer than the current system. But according to the IFS it wasn't clear whether it would have raised any extra funding for care.
None of our wonderful political parties has come up with a proposal to do that.
The wee Charle Hawtry guy at the podium is exerting a weird fascination over me.
What were they really singing?
I'm told it was 'It's Raining Men' (or version of), which would indicate a hitherto undisclosed sense of irony in the Loyalist community.
It sounds a lot more like different lyrics set to Tiffany - I think we're alone now. Can't work out what they're saying though.
The lyric was "Arlene's on fire" which means it was probably a parody to the N. Ireland Euro 2016 song, "Will Greig's on fire" - so the song is Freed from Desire.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
To be honest, the only thing that is cheering me up at the moment is the potential that Nicola Sturgeon may kick Indyref2 in the long long grass.
The Nat reaction is going to be sight to be behold.
If she does kick it into the long grass, I'll understand it, she's not stupid, losing a second Indyref really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead end Scottish independence for a proper generation.
Calling the election might well have saved the union for now.
I don't see a way out of this for the Tories. If there is an election in six months, it will be a Labour majority because the Tories no longer look like winners. A lot of people say "well labour only did as well as they did because the people voting for them thought Corbyn could never win, so they voted to reduce the size of the Con majority".
I think it's the other way round - I think an awful lot of people held their noses and voted Tory because it felt like it was the only option on the table. It was either a Con majority or a "coalition of chaos". Now the Tories have delivered a coalition of chaos and got into bed with some very unsavoury types Labour look like they're within spitting distance of an overall majority next time round.
And if we go a full two years with the Tories in a minority propped up by the DUP the Tories will only look weaker and weaker and more and more ineffective as a constant drip-drip of U turns and unhappy compromises makes them look no longer fit for power. Definite Labour majority if not landslide when that happens.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
The polls thought that too didn't they? As with Jo Cox, they gave the "right" answer post attack, but were wrong
Indeed they did. The fact that most of the Labour surge happened after Manchester should have been a warning sign. I just assumed 'Enough is enough' cut through (which I suppose it did, in a different sense).
I bet based on my very unscientific feeling about the Corbynites in my own social circle. Pre London Bridge, their mood was one of jubilant optimism, they could taste victory. In the last week of the campaign their language was angry and bordering on hysterical, they clearly felt something had changed and they were on course for a big loss.
My overriding memory of election night was Sky going to Emily Thornberry for a comment directly after the exit poll. She was grinning from ear to ear, clearly unable to contain herself. I think Labour's performance surprised Labour more than anyone else.
Bad news for Theresa May. Boris Johnson says he is 100% behind her.
I don't think it can get any worse for her. Immediate objective is to pass a simple Queens Speech, start Brexit talks and for the party to back her as the summer recess is not far away. Later in August have a quick leadership contest with new leader in place for conference and Theresa returns to the back benches.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
Well nobody on here BigG can not remember anyone putting their money on a hundred parliament.All those comments I read for f all.
Hung.
I don't see a way out of this for the Tories. If there is an election in six months, it will be a Labour majority because the Tories no longer look like winners. A lot of people say "well labour only did as well as they did because the people voting for them thought Corbyn could never win, so they voted to reduce the size of the Con majority".
I think it's the other way round - I think an awful lot of people held their noses and voted Tory because it felt like it was the only option on the table. It was either a Con majority or a "coalition of chaos". Now the Tories have delivered a coalition of chaos and got into bed with some very unsavoury types Labour look like they're within spitting distance of an overall majority next time round.
And if we go a full two years with the Tories in a minority propped up by the DUP the Tories will only look weaker and weaker and more and more ineffective as a constant drip-drip of U turns and unhappy compromises makes them look no longer fit for power. Definite Labour majority if not landslide when that happens.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
The polls thought that too didn't they? As with Jo Cox, they gave the "right" answer post attack, but were wrong
It's possible the polls got the movement right but the absolute shares wrong though. Maybe Manchester and London Bridge prevented a Corbyn minority government.
It's possible. Leave were more than 4 points ahead w many pollsters before Jo Cox's murder. Maybe they were under estimating that lead, and the shift was real too
As an aside I was amazed to see the Telegraph graphic that showed that the Tories added substantial vote share in every region of the country except London. Of course the issue is that Labour added more vote share. But still it is not as if people didn't turn out to vote Tory after all.
This is not a defence of May in any way. I still think she is rubbish and should go. Just an observation on the vagaries of elections. Probably a perfect example of why it is unwise to call one unless absolutely necessary.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
Because Corbyn knocks about with the kind of people that are responsible for the ideology that fuelled the attacks
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
The Tories started running _that_ Corbyn-is-friends-with-terrorists Facebook attack ad in the aftermath of Manchester. I actually thought it was pretty tone deaf and would be seen as negative and opportunistic.
But after a second attack, I really felt the mood among the electorate would be "well, perhaps the Tories had a point after all" and the attack ad would (by pure "luck" of there being a second attack) be effective after all.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
Nah you see this is where you miss it entirely.
I am not an instinctive DUP voter. They are not a natural home for me at all. In fact all the posters here who have a background in NI look to be much the same in their outlook.
But the DUP are not what the hysterics claim for their own political ends. Having said that Unionists in NI have lived with the caricatures for decades. We don't give a fiddlers, we are wholly comfortable in our own skin. We exist.
You may be comfortable with that load of ignorant, bigoted garbage, but you shouldn't presume to speak for others in Northern Ireland, and you shouldn't expect people elsewhere to be happy with it either.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
The 20 thousand police cuts under her watch didn't help her.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
The Tories started running _that_ Corbyn-is-friends-with-terrorists Facebook attack ad in the aftermath of Manchester. I actually thought it was pretty tone deaf and would be seen as negative and opportunistic.
But after a second attack, I really felt the mood among the electorate would be "well, perhaps the Tories had a point after all" and the attack ad would (by pure "luck" of there being a second attack) be effective after all.
I freely admit I was wrong there.
If anything, I think the attacks hurt May and the Tories. There were some uncomfortable moments for Corbyn during the TV set piece events, but on the whole the narrative was that May had cut police numbers and that's what caught the media's attention.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Absolutely. Public opinion has become quite unpredictable.
A novel idea to manage the DUP issue. Why doesn't the Govt appoint a NI secretary from outside the Conservative party? Perhaps a respected figure from the Lords?
The Tory proposal would have been fairer than the current system.
It was a tweak to a crap, unfair non-system. In very simple terms, it would have been "fairer" in that everyone receiving care would have to pay for it, as opposed to single people with no dependents. But it would have transferred much more of the responsibility for care from the collective to the individual, for a random medical illness. We don't do this for cancer or heart disease and people cannot understand why we do this for dementia. That was the basic problem. Voters want more public services now.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.
As an aside I was amazed to see the Telegraph graphic that showed that the Tories added substantial vote share in every region of the country except London. Of course the issue is that Labour added more vote share. But still it is not as if people didn't turn out to vote Tory after all.
This is not a defence of May in any way. I still think she is rubbish and should go. Just an observation on the vagaries of elections. Probably a perfect example of why it is unwise to call one unless absolutely necessary.
She got more votes than Blair in 1997 despite turnout being lower. Vote share was identical to Thatcher in 1983.
They didn't appear because they are still celebrating.
They knew that the first question they would would be the question Fallon got.
I know.
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
Don't worry, Yokel is here to tell us why they are absolutely no negatives to this hook up.
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
Nah you see this is where you miss it entirely.
I am not an instinctive DUP voter. They are not a natural home for me at all. In fact all the posters here who have a background in NI look to be much the same in their outlook.
But the DUP are not what the hysterics claim for their own political ends. Having said that Unionists in NI have lived with the caricatures for decades. We don't give a fiddlers, we are wholly comfortable in our own skin. We exist.
You may be comfortable with that load of ignorant, bigoted garbage, but you shouldn't presume to speak for others in Northern Ireland, and you shouldn't expect people elsewhere to be happy with it either.
Unionists is not solely the DUP, read it. But, as I said, we hear the caricatures, have done for decades and we aren't going to be guilted.
We don't expect everyone to be happy with it, I'm don't think its ideal at all but its reality, its politics.
Did I read that Corbyn is delaying his reshuffle because he wants to "take the fight to the Govt"? How does that work? Hasn't he still got some doubling up and unfiltered posts?
I don't think that a Corbyn win at the next election is inevitable or is yet probable. There is all to play for and there are forces pulling in opposite directions. Clearly Labour have momentum and their moral is high, they have a good ground operation and so on. Against that: 1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in. 2. Term time or vacation? 3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies. 4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics. 5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit. 6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Just look at the undecided break to Labour during the campaign.
IndyRef all over again. I had meant to plot that but never got round to doing the graft to gather up the DK figures. I think it's incredibly dangerous to report headline figures without also reporting the DK figure.
Con/Lab/DK of 35/30/25 is very, very different from 54/46/0
Anyway, I must be off. Race starts in half an hour. Been a pretty rubbish week for various reasons, so let's hope F1 at least makes the end of it good.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
The Tories started running _that_ Corbyn-is-friends-with-terrorists Facebook attack ad in the aftermath of Manchester. I actually thought it was pretty tone deaf and would be seen as negative and opportunistic.
But after a second attack, I really felt the mood among the electorate would be "well, perhaps the Tories had a point after all" and the attack ad would (by pure "luck" of there being a second attack) be effective after all.
I freely admit I was wrong there.
If anything, I think the attacks hurt May and the Tories. There were some uncomfortable moments for Corbyn during the TV set piece events, but on the whole the narrative was that May had cut police numbers and that's what caught the media's attention.
As I mentioned at the time to only be mostly lambasted on here by most , the 20,000 fewer police really harmed the Conservatives in the last few days of the campaign .
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
Even now, I'm still struggling to understand how people thought two terrorist attacks within the space of a few weeks was somehow going to HELP May win votes.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
Because Corbyn knocks about with the kind of people that are responsible for the ideology that fuelled the attacks
Problem is that there is now an entire generation for whom the concept of terror attacks is completely unconnected to the IRA who they regard as an irrelevance from the history books at best, and possibly even in a positive 'freedom fighter' light.
However valid, the argument was never going to sway anyone under 35.
Watching the Tory party eat itself is harrowing. Someone needs to be humane and put it out of its misery.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
Oh, it's wonderful. The entertainment highlight of my decade. What an unmitigated humiliation. This country will be all the better when we have seen off these ideologues.
Lol The Tories won't die off. That's a prediction as crackers as the demise of Labour was.
There are few certainties in politics, as a glance across the Channel today will confirm.
It's remarkable how quickly the narrative changes.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM. 2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020 2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too. 2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
Just look at the undecided break to Labour during the campaign.
IndyRef all over again. I had meant to plot that but never got round to doing the graft to gather up the DK figures. I think it's incredibly dangerous to report headline figures without also reporting the DK figure.
Con/Lab/DK of 35/30/25 is very, very different from 54/46/0
Comments
I enjoy singing that against the Aussies at the rugby and cricket.
However, that kind of thing is best not combined with a political career as the leader of a liberal party.
How times change. Britain singing as one;
"No surrender to the DUP"
the seminal volume of ulsters death " Lost Lives" doesnt name a single one
the reason the loyalist paramilitaries dilsike the DUP is they see them as a duplicitous bunch of cordite sniffers who like to wind things up and then bugger off
thats why the paramilitaries have their own political party
and if you dont like dealing with the DUP - and Im not a supporter - then maybe you shouldnt have knifed hulme and trimble and ceated the conditions in which the moderate centre crumbled
you reap what you sow
https://twitter.com/graham4sinead/status/873244809410031620
They just call Catholics kinds of reptile in public
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/873937640277643265
Campbell and Powell seemed to have no problem dealing with any of them did they, including terrorists on both sides They also left us with a completely fucked up mess of a political system at Stormont. They have f**K all to conclude that they have some kind of superiority to speak on the subject.
The people speak, they vote, they voted in 10 DUP MPs. The rise of the DUP was partially due to the fiddling around of the then Labour government, the helped create a vacuum in the centre in the drive to ensure that the likes of Sinn Fein and loyalist paramilitaries were kept in.
Alanbrooke is right, Ulster Resistance was a serious black mark in the 1980s (they didn't kill anyone or even try to) but you miss two pieces of history. The DUP went on to disown it once it got caught up in gun running because it had to. At that time the DUP was very much the junior in the Unionist camp because as someone who's name escapes me pointed out, Unionists tend not to vote for terrorists. Large sections of the Unionist population were not up for it, not at all.
The rise of the DUP as the dominant force in NI Unionism was a direct result of a flawed system and a flawed process one that had Tony Blair & his cohorts prints all over it.
Thanks a f**king bunch.
Another GE possible but maybe not before April 2019.
But again who knows
The thread I wrote this morning was very toned down from the original version.
I have never been so angry whilst writing a thread, normally I'm so full of bonhomie.
What were they really singing?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/ikrd/this-video-of-dup-politicians-singing-we-hate-catholics-at?utm_term=.tkd61l3N1z#.xtKZyXbJy9
After all, sticks and stones, and all that.
Oh, wait a minute ...
But that somehow we are at fault. Even though they are a perfectly ordinary party.
I booked an autumn cruise to the Western med as I may as well enjoy some of our monies before we have to pay for our dementia care as it is unlikely any change to the system will take place anytime soon.
I wish everyone happy betting and will keep up with the blogs but maybe post less
The Nat reaction is going to be sight to be behold.
If she does kick it into the long grass, I'll understand it, she's not stupid, losing a second Indyref really will kill Scottish Nationalism stone dead end Scottish independence for a proper generation.
I think it's the other way round - I think an awful lot of people held their noses and voted Tory because it felt like it was the only option on the table. It was either a Con majority or a "coalition of chaos". Now the Tories have delivered a coalition of chaos and got into bed with some very unsavoury types Labour look like they're within spitting distance of an overall majority next time round.
And if we go a full two years with the Tories in a minority propped up by the DUP the Tories will only look weaker and weaker and more and more ineffective as a constant drip-drip of U turns and unhappy compromises makes them look no longer fit for power. Definite Labour majority if not landslide when that happens.
FWIW I put money on NOM, Con Maj 1 - 24 and 26 -50 but cashed it all out and bet on Con maj 75+ after London Bridge. I thought it was going to change the narrative. I was wrong and it clearly didn't.
I am not an instinctive DUP voter. They are not a natural home for me at all. In fact all the posters here who have a background in NI look to be much the same in their outlook.
But the DUP are not what the hysterics claim for their own political ends. Having said that Unionists in NI have lived with the caricatures for decades. We don't give a fiddlers, we are wholly comfortable in our own skin. We exist.
Tough.
Part of the price of electing Jeremy Corbyn - power was always that further from reach.
Surely it was obvious that it would neutralise her main appeal to voters, that she could keep Britain safe and orderly?
None of our wonderful political parties has come up with a proposal to do that.
It's like one of those scenes in X Factor where it thought it was the next Sinatra, but discovered the hard way it can't sing a note.
Brutal. If not cruel.
I bet based on my very unscientific feeling about the Corbynites in my own social circle. Pre London Bridge, their mood was one of jubilant optimism, they could taste victory. In the last week of the campaign their language was angry and bordering on hysterical, they clearly felt something had changed and they were on course for a big loss.
My overriding memory of election night was Sky going to Emily Thornberry for a comment directly after the exit poll. She was grinning from ear to ear, clearly unable to contain herself. I think Labour's performance surprised Labour more than anyone else.
This is not a defence of May in any way. I still think she is rubbish and should go. Just an observation on the vagaries of elections. Probably a perfect example of why it is unwise to call one unless absolutely necessary.
But after a second attack, I really felt the mood among the electorate would be "well, perhaps the Tories had a point after all" and the attack ad would (by pure "luck" of there being a second attack) be effective after all.
I freely admit I was wrong there.
2015 before the election. Hung Parliament nailed on, probably EICIPM.
2015 after the election. Conservative majority nailed on in 2020
2017 before the election. Conservative majority nailed on not just this time but in 2022 too.
2017 after the election. Labour victory next time nailed on.
Nothing is ever nailed on. No votes are cast until they are cast.
LREM 32%
LR 20,5%
FN 18%
FI 11%
PS 6%
Just look at the undecided break to Labour during the campaign.
We don't expect everyone to be happy with it, I'm don't think its ideal at all but its reality, its politics.
Get used to your new political overlords.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/873811440347430912
Will they now lift the ridiculously low maximum stakes, so they can make even more?
The Labour utterances this morning on leaving the single market have ruffled some feathers.
We already saw David Lammy, but others are upset too.
This guy is right
@GOsborneGenius: @clairemaugham @AbiWilks @JolyonMaugham Corbynistas are busy persuading themselves that hard Brexit is somehow left wing. Just like keeping the Tories welfare cuts became left wing
1. The more affluent Southern wins are likely to be lost when a Labour victory look likely and the full taxation implications sink in.
2. Term time or vacation?
3. Forensic examination of Labour's economic policies.
4. A tactically sound Tory leadership can pitch popular measures (e.g. security ) that Labour moderates might support but Corbyn cannot - he is highly rigid on certain (most) topics.
5. Labour are as split as the Tories on multiple issues including Brexit.
6. Labour have exposed flanks on security, economic policy, immigration in terms of the majority of voters. The weird campaigh that just finished did not debate detail in any area.
It depends on Tory leadership and events, state of Brexit and economy and above all tactics and timing. May must be replaced of course!
Con/Lab/DK of 35/30/25 is very, very different from 54/46/0
Post-race ramble will be up tomorrow.
What if someone like David Miliband launched En Marche in the UK?
He wouldn't be an MP, but neither is Farage. Could he persuade anyone to flock to his banner?
Problem is that there is now an entire generation for whom the concept of terror attacks is completely unconnected to the IRA who they regard as an irrelevance from the history books at best, and possibly even in a positive 'freedom fighter' light.
However valid, the argument was never going to sway anyone under 35.