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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2017 general election: The most profitable general election ever for the bookies
I can only speak confidently for Ladbrokes (and Corals!) but the 2017 general election was almost certainly the most profitable in history for UK bookies. After the bloodbath of a Tory majority in 2015, we managed to win most of that back with the result on Thursday.
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First0
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First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!0
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OT
Remainiacs are over-playing their hands, They see this election result as not just a chance to water down Brexit but to stop it altogether.
Anyone that wants even the softest Brexit to happen has got to rally around Theresa May... Anything else will see the elites snatch this away from us.0 -
FPT
Nah, only if you tipped in a thread header SCon to win > 9.5 seats at 20/1 at William HillAlistair said:
Is there a minimum ROI you needed to make? I may have mentioned it but I was only at a mere 50%TheScreamingEagles said:
The afternoon thread is a must read for anyone who bet on the election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, is it about the urbanisation process of the medieval and Renaissance periods? The burhs of Alfred the Great? The oppido of the Romans?
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Third (rate) like May.0
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50-1 on Labour in Hallam? The 25-1 I got doesn't look quite so good now.0
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Oh it does, trust me.tlg86 said:50-1 on Labour in Hallam? The 25-1 I got doesn't look quite so good now.
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Trump does not like Losers does he!Scott_P said:0 -
Even 'The Donald' is more in touch with reality than Theresa May. What he actually said was not no state visit until the Briitsh public supports him coming but no state visit until the British public supports her staying!0
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Very kind of you to remind everyone that I was the first to tip that - thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT
Nah, only if you tipped in a thread header SCon to win > 9.5 seats at 20/1 at William HillAlistair said:
Is there a minimum ROI you needed to make? I may have mentioned it but I was only at a mere 50%TheScreamingEagles said:
The afternoon thread is a must read for anyone who bet on the election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, is it about the urbanisation process of the medieval and Renaissance periods? The burhs of Alfred the Great? The oppido of the Romans?
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She is NOT a winner! Why would he want anything to do with her now?scotslass said:Even 'The Donald' is more in touch with reality than Theresa May. What he actually said was not no state visit until the Briitsh public supports him coming but no state visit until the British public supports her staying!
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I placed the following bets during the campaign:
Early on:
Lib Dems less than 27.5 seats at 5/6 - won
Lib Dems range 11 - 19 seats at 3/1 - won
Labour to win Bristol West at 7/4 - won
During the campaign as "insurance":
Conservatives in Twickenham at 6/4 - lost
Labour in Cambridge at 10/3 - won
Labour in Bermondsey at 5/4 - won
Just before end of campaign:
Lib Dems in East Dunbartonshire at 4/6 - won
Lib Dems in North Norfolk at 13/8 - won
Slightly better than doubled my (small amount of) money.
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Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.0 -
They may be first but they also lost what they had - their Majority.The_Taxman said:First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!
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Wants to be the only powerful Orange Man in town? I'll get my coat...Scott_P said:0 -
FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.0 -
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.0 -
A bit like the Scottish Tories on 13 seats claiming victory over the SNP with 35, then?The_Taxman said:First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!
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"I feel well out of it"GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
There you go, that's all you need to know about this ****. What Tory Remainers need to remember is that having cried wolf over Brexit, the voters are no longer scared by claims about what a nasty man Jeremy Corbyn is and how terrible things will be if he ever comes to power.
May's dreadful, but Osborne's very much played his part in all of this.0 -
I'd like to thank all the seat-by-seat tipsters but mostly whoever posted the links to the Prosser and BES research which pointed the way to Survation and Yougov being the pollsters to follow. I still have it summarised on a card next to my pc.0
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I campaigned for the Conservatives and voted for them, and would do so again, but I won't rejoin. The reason is they love nothing more than forming a circular firing squad, and settling scores against each other.GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
You hang together, or you hang separately.0 -
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Cameron and Osborne were sounding out the homophobic DUP about an "arrangement" before the 2015 election?Gardenwalker said:
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.0 -
Perception is reality.GIN1138 said:
Cameron and Osborne were sounding out the homophobic DUP about an "arrangement" before the 2015 election?Gardenwalker said:
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.
Edit: Cameron invested political capital in gay marriage. May invested political capital in castigating the "citizens of nowhere".
Hate breeds hate.0 -
Im a Sad panda due to laying off 150 pounds worth of profit on that bet.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT
Nah, only if you tipped in a thread header SCon to win > 9.5 seats at 20/1 at William HillAlistair said:
Is there a minimum ROI you needed to make? I may have mentioned it but I was only at a mere 50%TheScreamingEagles said:
The afternoon thread is a must read for anyone who bet on the election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, is it about the urbanisation process of the medieval and Renaissance periods? The burhs of Alfred the Great? The oppido of the Romans?
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And me !
Constituency betting is certainly the way to go, all you have to do is follow the demographic trends.
And thanks to Shadsy and the other bookies.0 -
If I may return to June 9th and TM's visit to the Palace. Contrary to what most people believe there was no constitutional requirement for her to do that - PMs are not reappointed after General Elections under our system but simply carry on in office or resign to make way for someone else. The visit to see the Queen,therefore, was more out of courtesy and to inform the monarch of her intentions given the unclear election outcome. It was certainly not a question of 'TM seeking permission to form a Government'. Thatcher did not visit the Palace when re-elected in 1983 & 1987 - neither did Wilson in 1966 & October 1974. Blair seems to have begun this new tendency by going to the Palace when re-elected in 2001 & 2005. Cameron followed his example in 2015 - but it really is more of a photo-opportunity than something the PM is obliged to do. There is a lot of ignorance on this extending to jounalists such as Laura Kuensberg!0
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The Tories are an awful bunch really.Sean_F said:
I campaigned for the Conservatives and voted for them, and would do so again, but I won't rejoin. The reason is they love nothing more than forming a circular firing squad, and settling scores against each other.GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
You hang together, or you hang separately.0 -
If the Conservative Party campaign on a platform of slashing public spending and taxes, support for the EU, and social liberalism, it might well regain Kensington, but will lose a hell of a lot else.Gardenwalker said:
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.0 -
What about putting the country first and not seeking to exacerbate cultural divides?Sean_F said:
If the Conservative Party campaign on a platform of slashing public spending and taxes, support for the EU, and social liberalism, it might well regain Kensington, but will lose a hell of a lot else.Gardenwalker said:
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.
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@Justin124 - I thought that was the case.
By the way, I hope you've received apologies from those who mocked you for your analysis of the polls. In particular your point about swingback to the opposition (as in 2005) proved to be very true.0 -
Sometimes I have admired their ruthlessness other times not so. Not sure what to make of the current situation and what they should do.Sean_F said:
I campaigned for the Conservatives and voted for them, and would do so again, but I won't rejoin. The reason is they love nothing more than forming a circular firing squad, and settling scores against each other.GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
You hang together, or you hang separately.0 -
Betfairs Scottish Constituency odds were a joy, as was Ladbrokes Lib Dem seat bands.0
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See this is what I don't get and makes me think all the "outrage" about the DUP is primailriy faux.Gardenwalker said:
Perception is reality.GIN1138 said:
Cameron and Osborne were sounding out the homophobic DUP about an "arrangement" before the 2015 election?Gardenwalker said:
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.
Edit: Cameron invested political capital in gay marriage. May invested political capital in castigating the "citizens of nowhere".
Hate breeds hate.
It looks as though the problem with a Con/DUP arrangement is simply the optics and whether it can be sold rather than the DUP's actual views and policies otherwise people like you would be equally appalled that Cameron was cosying up to the DUP before 2015 as you are about what May is doing now.
I can understand people being against a deal with the DUP on principle because of their bigoted views... But this idea that a deal with Cameron would've been OK because he could "sell" it just looks like pure hypocrisy to me....0 -
I went hideously wrong on some odds on early Tory bets in England and Wales.another_richard said:And me !
Constituency betting is certainly the way to go, all you have to do is follow the demographic trends.
And thanks to Shadsy and the other bookies.
But I have Corbyn to thank for Ynys Mons, Leeds NW and East Lothian. All 10-1+ winners which in themselves netted over a grand.
I also tipped up Hallam at 25-1, unfortunately I could only get £2 on (And rebacked Clegg at 4-9) before going in again on Labour at odds against for tuppence ha'penny. The idea the Tories would take Hallam given their working class campaign was ridiculous !
Overall I'm reasonably sure I'm up overall despite a few Tory horrors.
10-19 seats @ 10-1 was a huge rick, unfortunately Paddy knocked me back to £50 rather than the £400 I wanted in shop
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Shame the Irish weren't invited to this debate...isam said:
Maybe one thing to come out of any Con/DUP arrangement is that the Irish parties will get taken seriously by our arrogant broadcasters in the debates for the next election.0 -
Indeed, pyric victories all round then. I still think May should resign as how can anyone have confidence in her abilities to get the best deal for Britain. Not only is she a rubbish politician but deluded as well if she thought Labour Leave voters would come and vote Tory. She cannot keep claiming the 2016 as a mandate as it has been superseded by a more recent election in which she said Brexit was the issue it should be decided on. She did not get the increased mandate she requested.No_Offence_Alan said:
A bit like the Scottish Tories on 13 seats claiming victory over the SNP with 35, then?The_Taxman said:First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!
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Not really. Labour were a LOT closer.No_Offence_Alan said:
A bit like the Scottish Tories on 13 seats claiming victory over the SNP with 35, then?The_Taxman said:First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!
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Gove about to make a comeback?0
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I fear some London Tories are raging against the dying of the light and lashing out in despair.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
The Conservatives are dying in London suburbia - if Labour hadn't antagonised middle class Hindus and Jews it would have been even worse.
Enfield Southgate is going the way of Enfield North which is going the same way as Edmonton.
Chingford is going the way of Ilford North which is going the same way as Ilford South.0 -
One of my biggest ricks was pointing that 10-19 bet out to people before I got anything on myselfPulpstar said:
I went hideously wrong on some odds on early Tory bets in England and Wales.another_richard said:And me !
Constituency betting is certainly the way to go, all you have to do is follow the demographic trends.
And thanks to Shadsy and the other bookies.
But I have Corbyn to thank for Ynys Mons, Leeds NW and East Lothian. All 10-1+ winners which in themselves netted over a grand.
I also tipped up Hallam at 25-1, unfortunately I could only get £2 on (And rebacked Clegg at 4-9) before going in again on Labour at odds against for tuppence ha'penny. The idea the Tories would take Hallam given their working class campaign was ridiculous !
Overall I'm reasonably sure I'm up overall despite a few Tory horrors.
10-19 seats @ 10-1 was a huge rick, unfortunately Paddy knocked me back to £50 rather than the £400 I wanted in shop0 -
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Yes! I said this at the time. If that Welsh woman is invited, so should the DUP.GIN1138 said:
Shame the Irish weren't invited to this debate...isam said:
Maybe one thing to come out of any Con/DUP arrangement is that the Irish parties will get a taken serious by our arrogant broadcasters in the debates for the next election.0 -
True. Those Conservative voters aren't necessarily disappearing they have just moved elsewhere.another_richard said:
I fear some London Tories are raging against the dying of the light and lashing out in despair.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
The Conservatives are dying in London suburbia - if Labour hadn't antagonised middle class Hindus and Jews it would have been even worse.
Enfield Southgate is going the way of Enfield North which is going the same way as Edmonton.
Chingford is going the way of Ilford North which is going the same way as Ilford South.0 -
I think I've identified the greatest political blunder of the last 2 years.
It was David Cameron repeating his mums advice to Corbyn to put on a suit and do up his tie.0 -
Sturgeon lost about half the Nat MPs. When's she resigning ?Theuniondivvie said:
Not really. Labour were a LOT closer.No_Offence_Alan said:
A bit like the Scottish Tories on 13 seats claiming victory over the SNP with 35, then?The_Taxman said:First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!
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I have never paid any attention to NI politics, so am surprised to hear how awful both Sinn Fein and the DUP are, according to the experts. I always thought NI people were ok, why do they vote for such horrors?GIN1138 said:
Shame the Irish weren't invited to this debate...isam said:
Maybe one thing to come out of any Con/DUP arrangement is that the Irish parties will get a taken serious by our arrogant broadcasters in the debates for the next election.0 -
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Yep thanks for the tip. I was in the shop at 8 am the next morning !isam said:
One of my biggest ricks was pointing that 10-19 bet out to people before I got anything on myselfPulpstar said:
I went hideously wrong on some odds on early Tory bets in England and Wales.another_richard said:And me !
Constituency betting is certainly the way to go, all you have to do is follow the demographic trends.
And thanks to Shadsy and the other bookies.
But I have Corbyn to thank for Ynys Mons, Leeds NW and East Lothian. All 10-1+ winners which in themselves netted over a grand.
I also tipped up Hallam at 25-1, unfortunately I could only get £2 on (And rebacked Clegg at 4-9) before going in again on Labour at odds against for tuppence ha'penny. The idea the Tories would take Hallam given their working class campaign was ridiculous !
Overall I'm reasonably sure I'm up overall despite a few Tory horrors.
10-19 seats @ 10-1 was a huge rick, unfortunately Paddy knocked me back to £50 rather than the £400 I wanted in shop0 -
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I actually don't mind them seeking the support of the DUP. There is no choice.GIN1138 said:
See this is what I don't get and makes me think all the "outrage" about the DUP is primailriy faux.Gardenwalker said:
Perception is reality.GIN1138 said:
Cameron and Osborne were sounding out the homophobic DUP about an "arrangement" before the 2015 election?Gardenwalker said:
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.
Edit: Cameron invested political capital in gay marriage. May invested political capital in castigating the "citizens of nowhere".
Hate breeds hate.
It looks as though the problem with a Con/DUP arrangement is simply the optics and whether it can be sold rather than the DUP's actual views and policies otherwise people like you would be equally appalled that Cameron was cosying up to the DUP before 2015 as you are about what May is doing now.
I can understand people being against a deal with the DUP on principle because of their bigoted views... But this idea that a deal with Cameron would've been OK because he could "sell" it just looks like pure hypocrisy to me....
But Theresa has campaigned on avoiding a coalition of chaos, and by dividing one part of the country against another.
Against that narrative, the DUP is a toxifying and highly unstable element.0 -
FPT:
Yet another example of idiotic May is. You'd think she'd be the one to tell Trump not to come, not the other way round. Instead, she was apparently 'surprised' by this, which underlines how she must be one of the most politically tone deaf PMs we've ever had.Scott_P said:0 -
The Conservatives are much stronger in Essex, Kent and Hertfordshire than they were a generation ago. Studenty Canterbury being the exception.Typo said:
True. Those Conservative voters aren't necessarily disappearing they have just moved elsewhere.another_richard said:
I fear some London Tories are raging against the dying of the light and lashing out in despair.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
The Conservatives are dying in London suburbia - if Labour hadn't antagonised middle class Hindus and Jews it would have been even worse.
Enfield Southgate is going the way of Enfield North which is going the same way as Edmonton.
Chingford is going the way of Ilford North which is going the same way as Ilford South.
And there's far more 'cockney' accents heard in the likes of Mansfield and Morley than there used to be.0 -
MonikerDiCanio said:
Sturgeon lost about half the Nat MPs. When's she resigning ?Theuniondivvie said:
Not really. Labour were a LOT closer.No_Offence_Alan said:
A bit like the Scottish Tories on 13 seats claiming victory over the SNP with 35, then?The_Taxman said:First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!
Yoon arithmetic, 21 is 'about half' of 56.
Let's try again shall we? If Ruth has 13 seats, and Nicola has 35 seats, who won the election?'0 -
The state visit is arranged, it should go ahead. Avoiding it for narrow political calclulation show the Tories are unfit to govern. Do they do everything based on tiny narrow calculation. It is starting to show and is desperately wearing, think I'd have Corbyn in now tbh - at least he has principles he sticks by.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Yet another example of idiotic May is. You'd think she'd be the one to tell Trump not to come, not the other way round. Instead, she was apparently 'surprised' by this, which underlines how she must be one of the most politically tone deaf PMs we've ever had.Scott_P said:0 -
That is kind of you but for me it is actually pretty much 'water off a duck's back' to be honest. Many people assumed I was being partisan when all along I was relying on my psephological knowledge supported by a very good memory! I regularly made the point that the GB figures were flattering the Tories in England & Wales given their obvious surge in Scotland. Re- the latter Labour has probably had the best result when we focus on what has now changed there. The Tories are pretty well close to the limit of what they can win there , and any further weakening of the SNP will be greatly to Labour's advantage. I can see Labour at 30% - 33% there next time and likely to win 15 to 20 seats - perhaps even beating the SNP in % vote share too.tlg86 said:@Justin124 - I thought that was the case.
By the way, I hope you've received apologies from those who mocked you for your analysis of the polls. In particular your point about swingback to the opposition (as in 2005) proved to be very true.0 -
Particularly in Scotland - SCON pretty much gone to ground !Gardenwalker said:
I actually don't mind them seeking the support of the DUP. There is no choice.GIN1138 said:
See this is what I don't get and makes me think all the "outrage" about the DUP is primailriy faux.Gardenwalker said:
Perception is reality.GIN1138 said:
Cameron and Osborne were sounding out the homophobic DUP about an "arrangement" before the 2015 election?Gardenwalker said:
The Tory party suddenly appear to be the party of homophobic hard Brexit.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
That ain't gonna win back Kensington.
Edit: Cameron invested political capital in gay marriage. May invested political capital in castigating the "citizens of nowhere".
Hate breeds hate.
It looks as though the problem with a Con/DUP arrangement is simply the optics and whether it can be sold rather than the DUP's actual views and policies otherwise people like you would be equally appalled that Cameron was cosying up to the DUP before 2015 as you are about what May is doing now.
I can understand people being against a deal with the DUP on principle because of their bigoted views... But this idea that a deal with Cameron would've been OK because he could "sell" it just looks like pure hypocrisy to me....
But Theresa has campaigned on avoiding a coalition of chaos, and by dividing one part of the country against another.
Against that narrative, the DUP is a toxifying and highly unstable element.0 -
leaving Toby “Last of the Maybotniks” Young to have a breakdown of his own by insisting that the strong and stable Supreme Leader really was still the strong and stable Supreme Leader. Back in Downing Street, the Maybot started typing her resignation letter. When Toby is your Praetorian Guard, it really is time to go. Toby has yet to find an argument he can understand, let alone win.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5086/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-2017-general-election-the-most-profitable-general-electio#latest0 -
The way that Stormont is structured requires one to vote for one's own hardliners, to counter the other side's hardliners.isam said:
I have never paid any attention to NI politics, so am surprised to hear how awful both Sinn Fein and the DUP are, according to the experts. I always thought NI people were ok, why do they vote for such horrors?GIN1138 said:
Shame the Irish weren't invited to this debate...isam said:
Maybe one thing to come out of any Con/DUP arrangement is that the Irish parties will get a taken serious by our arrogant broadcasters in the debates for the next election.
At an individual level, I've liked almost every Northern Irish person I've met, and spent a really wonderful holiday in Antrim last year. The Coast is incredible.0 -
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True, but in terms of getting into Number 10, Labour gaining off the SNP is not that much good. They'll need to take seats off of the Tories to win power.justin124 said:
That is kind of you but for me it is actually pretty much 'water off a duck's back' to be honest. Many people assumed I was being partisan when all along I was relying on my psephological knowledge supported by a very good memory! I regularly made the point that the GB figures were flattering the Tories in England & Wales given their obvious surge in Scotland. Re- the latter Labour has probably had the best result when we focus on what has now changed there. The Tories are pretty well close to the limit of what they can win there , and any further weakening of the SNP will be greatly to Labour's advantage. I can see Labour at 30% - 33% there next time and likely to win 15 to 20 seats - perhaps even beating the SNP in % vote share too.tlg86 said:@Justin124 - I thought that was the case.
By the way, I hope you've received apologies from those who mocked you for your analysis of the polls. In particular your point about swingback to the opposition (as in 2005) proved to be very true.0 -
Well it's possible she's had one or two other things on her mind in the past 2-3 days?The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Yet another example of idiotic May is. You'd think she'd be the one to tell Trump not to come, not the other way round. Instead, she was apparently 'surprised' by this, which underlines how she must be one of the most politically tone deaf PMs we've ever had.Scott_P said:
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Not long ago, places like Hemel Hempstead and Dartford were marginals.another_richard said:
The Conservatives are much stronger in Essex, Kent and Hertfordshire than they were a generation ago. Studenty Canterbury being the exception.Typo said:
True. Those Conservative voters aren't necessarily disappearing they have just moved elsewhere.another_richard said:
I fear some London Tories are raging against the dying of the light and lashing out in despair.Sean_F said:FPT, Nunu, telling voters in Mansfield and Leeds East that they live in "shitholes' won't produce a Conservative majority.
They need to win both in places like Mansfield and Kensington.
The Conservatives are dying in London suburbia - if Labour hadn't antagonised middle class Hindus and Jews it would have been even worse.
Enfield Southgate is going the way of Enfield North which is going the same way as Edmonton.
Chingford is going the way of Ilford North which is going the same way as Ilford South.
And there's far more 'cockney' accents heard in the likes of Mansfield and Morley than there used to be.
Given that Surrey and Hertfordshire were only marginally Leave, I thought the Tories might struggle in one or two seats, but not a bit. I think that a bit more than a big Remain vote was needed to beat them ( eg lots of students, anger over austerity, or social care).0 -
I think this election outcome is the worst of all possible worlds for the Tories.
If we had 10 less seats, we'd be out of power. Corbyn would be PM, and would have to start delivering Brexit and somehow reconciling his plans with the public finances. The Tories would be strong in Parliament, and would be able to harass and embarrass Labour on a regular basis.
If we had 10 more seats, we'd have a majority, and the DUP would be enough for the difficult Brexit votes.
Instead, the parliamentary arithmetic means we have no choice but to carry on in government, supported by a party who will tar us by association. We may not be able to get any Brexit settlement through Parliament thanks to our own rebels, which could lead to a chaotic exit or another election at which we would be utterly eviscerated.
It's an utter, utter disaster. She is worse than Eden, Chamberlain and Major combined, and yet replacing her would be worse.0 -
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Yep. May is useless whereas Osborne is malignant.tlg86 said:
"I feel well out of it"GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
There you go, that's all you need to know about this ****. What Tory Remainers need to remember is that having cried wolf over Brexit, the voters are no longer scared by claims about what a nasty man Jeremy Corbyn is and how terrible things will be if he ever comes to power.
May's dreadful, but Osborne's very much played his part in all of this.0 -
Can you get bets on in shops even when they're not available online ?Pulpstar said:
Yep thanks for the tip. I was in the shop at 8 am the next morning !isam said:
One of my biggest ricks was pointing that 10-19 bet out to people before I got anything on myselfPulpstar said:
I went hideously wrong on some odds on early Tory bets in England and Wales.another_richard said:And me !
Constituency betting is certainly the way to go, all you have to do is follow the demographic trends.
And thanks to Shadsy and the other bookies.
But I have Corbyn to thank for Ynys Mons, Leeds NW and East Lothian. All 10-1+ winners which in themselves netted over a grand.
I also tipped up Hallam at 25-1, unfortunately I could only get £2 on (And rebacked Clegg at 4-9) before going in again on Labour at odds against for tuppence ha'penny. The idea the Tories would take Hallam given their working class campaign was ridiculous !
Overall I'm reasonably sure I'm up overall despite a few Tory horrors.
10-19 seats @ 10-1 was a huge rick, unfortunately Paddy knocked me back to £50 rather than the £400 I wanted in shop
0 -
It's clear from the article that it's Trump that has engineered this, not the Conservatives - unless you think the story is a lie.Pulpstar said:
The state visit is arranged, it should go ahead. Avoiding it for narrow political calclulation show the Tories are unfit to govern. Do they do everything based on tiny narrow calculation. It is starting to show and is desperately wearing, think I'd have Corbyn in now tbh - at least he has principles he sticks by.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Yet another example of idiotic May is. You'd think she'd be the one to tell Trump not to come, not the other way round. Instead, she was apparently 'surprised' by this, which underlines how she must be one of the most politically tone deaf PMs we've ever had.Scott_P said:
The state visit though should not go ahead. It should have never even been offered.0 -
Indeed so - though there may be a few seats that might be taken from the Tories - such as East Renfrew - Ochil seat - and a seat in Ayrshire. Labour is likely to be seen now as very much 'back in the game ' in Scotland and that could well lead to Unionists who had supported the Tories for anti-SNP tactical reasons to switch back to Labour next time.tlg86 said:
True, but in terms of getting into Number 10, Labour gaining off the SNP is not that much good. They'll need to take seats off of the Tories to win power.justin124 said:
That is kind of you but for me it is actually pretty much 'water off a duck's back' to be honest. Many people assumed I was being partisan when all along I was relying on my psephological knowledge supported by a very good memory! I regularly made the point that the GB figures were flattering the Tories in England & Wales given their obvious surge in Scotland. Re- the latter Labour has probably had the best result when we focus on what has now changed there. The Tories are pretty well close to the limit of what they can win there , and any further weakening of the SNP will be greatly to Labour's advantage. I can see Labour at 30% - 33% there next time and likely to win 15 to 20 seats - perhaps even beating the SNP in % vote share too.tlg86 said:@Justin124 - I thought that was the case.
By the way, I hope you've received apologies from those who mocked you for your analysis of the polls. In particular your point about swingback to the opposition (as in 2005) proved to be very true.0 -
He must be talking about another party !
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/8738607402136002560 -
Osborne and Cameron won a majority in 2015.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. May is useless whereas Osborne is malignant.tlg86 said:
"I feel well out of it"GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
There you go, that's all you need to know about this ****. What Tory Remainers need to remember is that having cried wolf over Brexit, the voters are no longer scared by claims about what a nasty man Jeremy Corbyn is and how terrible things will be if he ever comes to power.
May's dreadful, but Osborne's very much played his part in all of this.0 -
Corbyn who sticks to his principles on Trident? All politicians are dishonest and twist and turn to suit their needs. It is factored into their price as politicians. Anything May does now will be seen for a political reason. Her own fault, totally of her own making. The tide has definitely turned on the Tories for now and will keep going in until she is removed IMO.Pulpstar said:
The state visit is arranged, it should go ahead. Avoiding it for narrow political calclulation show the Tories are unfit to govern. Do they do everything based on tiny narrow calculation. It is starting to show and is desperately wearing, think I'd have Corbyn in now tbh - at least he has principles he sticks by.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Yet another example of idiotic May is. You'd think she'd be the one to tell Trump not to come, not the other way round. Instead, she was apparently 'surprised' by this, which underlines how she must be one of the most politically tone deaf PMs we've ever had.Scott_P said:0 -
It was available online, but you can't get on in any size if you're a marked account. You can't get on in the shop at any size either if the trader suddenly realises he's fucked up the odds.another_richard said:
Can you get bets on in shops even when they're not available online ?Pulpstar said:
Yep thanks for the tip. I was in the shop at 8 am the next morning !isam said:
One of my biggest ricks was pointing that 10-19 bet out to people before I got anything on myselfPulpstar said:
I went hideously wrong on some odds on early Tory bets in England and Wales.another_richard said:And me !
Constituency betting is certainly the way to go, all you have to do is follow the demographic trends.
And thanks to Shadsy and the other bookies.
But I have Corbyn to thank for Ynys Mons, Leeds NW and East Lothian. All 10-1+ winners which in themselves netted over a grand.
I also tipped up Hallam at 25-1, unfortunately I could only get £2 on (And rebacked Clegg at 4-9) before going in again on Labour at odds against for tuppence ha'penny. The idea the Tories would take Hallam given their working class campaign was ridiculous !
Overall I'm reasonably sure I'm up overall despite a few Tory horrors.
10-19 seats @ 10-1 was a huge rick, unfortunately Paddy knocked me back to £50 rather than the £400 I wanted in shop0 -
Ruth only had 1 seat on Wednesday...Theuniondivvie said:MonikerDiCanio said:
Sturgeon lost about half the Nat MPs. When's she resigning ?Theuniondivvie said:
Not really. Labour were a LOT closer.No_Offence_Alan said:
A bit like the Scottish Tories on 13 seats claiming victory over the SNP with 35, then?The_Taxman said:First like the Tories but Labour claim victory!
Yoon arithmetic, 21 is 'about half' of 56.
Let's try again shall we? If Ruth has 13 seats, and Nicola has 35 seats, who won the election?'0 -
I've got a hundred quid on him showing up though xDThe_Apocalypse said:
It's clear from the article that it's Trump that has engineered this, not the Conservatives - unless you think the story is a lie.Pulpstar said:
The state visit is arranged, it should go ahead. Avoiding it for narrow political calclulation show the Tories are unfit to govern. Do they do everything based on tiny narrow calculation. It is starting to show and is desperately wearing, think I'd have Corbyn in now tbh - at least he has principles he sticks by.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Yet another example of idiotic May is. You'd think she'd be the one to tell Trump not to come, not the other way round. Instead, she was apparently 'surprised' by this, which underlines how she must be one of the most politically tone deaf PMs we've ever had.Scott_P said:
The state visit though should not go ahead. It should have never even been offered.0 -
Fear, I guess. It beats all other emotions.isam said:
I have never paid any attention to NI politics, so am surprised to hear how awful both Sinn Fein and the DUP are, according to the experts. I always thought NI people were ok, why do they vote for such horrors?GIN1138 said:
Shame the Irish weren't invited to this debate...isam said:
Maybe one thing to come out of any Con/DUP arrangement is that the Irish parties will get a taken serious by our arrogant broadcasters in the debates for the next election.0 -
I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about his character. Much of the cause for May' s current situation lies with the decisions he made. Gloating be sure he managed to pass on the parcel before it exploded shows just what a worm he is.MaxPB said:
Osborne and Cameron won a majority in 2015.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. May is useless whereas Osborne is malignant.tlg86 said:
"I feel well out of it"GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
There you go, that's all you need to know about this ****. What Tory Remainers need to remember is that having cried wolf over Brexit, the voters are no longer scared by claims about what a nasty man Jeremy Corbyn is and how terrible things will be if he ever comes to power.
May's dreadful, but Osborne's very much played his part in all of this.0 -
Oh okay....well that is a bit awkward then....Pulpstar said:
I've got a hundred quid on him showing up though xDThe_Apocalypse said:
It's clear from the article that it's Trump that has engineered this, not the Conservatives - unless you think the story is a lie.Pulpstar said:
The state visit is arranged, it should go ahead. Avoiding it for narrow political calclulation show the Tories are unfit to govern. Do they do everything based on tiny narrow calculation. It is starting to show and is desperately wearing, think I'd have Corbyn in now tbh - at least he has principles he sticks by.The_Apocalypse said:FPT:
Yet another example of idiotic May is. You'd think she'd be the one to tell Trump not to come, not the other way round. Instead, she was apparently 'surprised' by this, which underlines how she must be one of the most politically tone deaf PMs we've ever had.Scott_P said:
The state visit though should not go ahead. It should have never even been offered.0 -
If only Michael Gove could become party leader ...calum said:He must be talking about another party !
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/873860740213600256
They'd be out of power for 50 years.0 -
The Tories could do worse than choose Anna Soubry as their next leader. She sounded firm but fair as a talking head earlier. (Jenkin, in comparison, threw a massive strop, basically blaming the whole debacle on Osborne and Heseltine!)0
-
TM & soundbites !
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8738956550345523210 -
A pity that the Shinners don't sit at Westminster, if they did, the Coalition of Chaos would have 322 seats.isam said:
I have never paid any attention to NI politics, so am surprised to hear how awful both Sinn Fein and the DUP are, according to the experts. I always thought NI people were ok, why do they vote for such horrors?GIN1138 said:
Shame the Irish weren't invited to this debate...isam said:
Maybe one thing to come out of any Con/DUP arrangement is that the Irish parties will get a taken serious by our arrogant broadcasters in the debates for the next election.0 -
Difficult to disagree with that.RoyalBlue said:I think this election outcome is the worst of all possible worlds for the Tories.
If we had 10 less seats, we'd be out of power. Corbyn would be PM, and would have to start delivering Brexit and somehow reconciling his plans with the public finances. The Tories would be strong in Parliament, and would be able to harass and embarrass Labour on a regular basis.
If we had 10 more seats, we'd have a majority, and the DUP would be enough for the difficult Brexit votes.
Instead, the parliamentary arithmetic means we have no choice but to carry on in government, supported by a party who will tar us by association. We may not be able to get any Brexit settlement through Parliament thanks to our own rebels, which could lead to a chaotic exit or another election at which we would be utterly eviscerated.
It's an utter, utter disaster. She is worse than Eden, Chamberlain and Major combined, and yet replacing her would be worse.
It's a Gramscian crisis - The old is dying but the new cannot be born.
The losers are those with the most invested in May's pre-election status quo.0 -
If EdM had offered to end student tuition fees then they wouldn't have.MaxPB said:
Osborne and Cameron won a majority in 2015.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. May is useless whereas Osborne is malignant.tlg86 said:
"I feel well out of it"GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
There you go, that's all you need to know about this ****. What Tory Remainers need to remember is that having cried wolf over Brexit, the voters are no longer scared by claims about what a nasty man Jeremy Corbyn is and how terrible things will be if he ever comes to power.
May's dreadful, but Osborne's very much played his part in all of this.
And in 2016 Osborne destroyed Project Fear - nobody believes scare stories from the government any more.
There's more, much more, besides that.0 -
To keep the other side out. It really is that simple.isam said:
I have never paid any attention to NI politics, so am surprised to hear how awful both Sinn Fein and the DUP are, according to the experts. I always thought NI people were ok, why do they vote for such horrors?GIN1138 said:
Shame the Irish weren't invited to this debate...isam said:
Maybe one thing to come out of any Con/DUP arrangement is that the Irish parties will get a taken serious by our arrogant broadcasters in the debates for the next election.0 -
No one asked her to make social care the centre of her manifesto. We literally needed one line on it "we will start a royal commission to investigate the best way in which to fully fund our social care system". That's it. Instead she made a huge attack on property and inheritance rights, overturning 40 years of party orthodoxy. It was a stupid, self inflicted wound that destroyed her and our party. As someone who isn't in the party and has been active in another, a period of silence about what is and isn't good for us would be appreciated.Richard_Tyndall said:
I wasn't talking about that. I wad talking about his character. Much of the cause for May' s current situation lies with the decisions he made. Gloating be sure he managed to pass on the parcel before it exploded shows just what a worm he is.MaxPB said:
Osborne and Cameron won a majority in 2015.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. May is useless whereas Osborne is malignant.tlg86 said:
"I feel well out of it"GIN1138 said:Here's The Master Strategist gloating at the position of Theresa May and the Conservative Party;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdxs-oH3cOE
Hope Tory members keep this in their grudge bank and make sure this ghastly man can never make a comeback.
I'd vote for Jezza every day of week and twice on Sundays over Osborne.
There you go, that's all you need to know about this ****. What Tory Remainers need to remember is that having cried wolf over Brexit, the voters are no longer scared by claims about what a nasty man Jeremy Corbyn is and how terrible things will be if he ever comes to power.
May's dreadful, but Osborne's very much played his part in all of this.0 -
Is Gove on maneuvers?calum said:He must be talking about another party !
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/873860740213600256 0 -
Ha!Richard_Tyndall said:I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about his character.
May sacked him, unnecessarily, and needlessly viciously, before driving the party and country into the ground.
He is entitled to feel aggrieved0 -
No. Gove telling the truth.GIN1138 said:
Is Gove on maneuvers?calum said:He must be talking about another party !
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/873860740213600256
0 -
He sacked himself when he blew the referendum.Scott_P said:
Ha!Richard_Tyndall said:I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about his character.
May sacked him, unnecessarily, and needlessly viciously, before driving the party and country into the ground.
He is entitled to feel aggrieved0 -
It's utterly utterly delicious.RoyalBlue said:I think this election outcome is the worst of all possible worlds for the Tories.
If we had 10 less seats, we'd be out of power. Corbyn would be PM, and would have to start delivering Brexit and somehow reconciling his plans with the public finances. The Tories would be strong in Parliament, and would be able to harass and embarrass Labour on a regular basis.
If we had 10 more seats, we'd have a majority, and the DUP would be enough for the difficult Brexit votes.
Instead, the parliamentary arithmetic means we have no choice but to carry on in government, supported by a party who will tar us by association. We may not be able to get any Brexit settlement through Parliament thanks to our own rebels, which could lead to a chaotic exit or another election at which we would be utterly eviscerated.
It's an utter, utter disaster. She is worse than Eden, Chamberlain and Major combined, and yet replacing her would be worse.0 -
After what he did to Boris it's always hard to know whether Gove is being loyal and game-playing...perdix said:
No. Gove telling the truth.GIN1138 said:
Is Gove on maneuvers?calum said:He must be talking about another party !
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/8738607402136002560 -
Indeed, she told him to go out and learn what the party was about and just months later she made a huge attack on our base with horrible policies. She is completely useless and clearly doesn't understand anything about what our party stands for. It's not energy caps, it's not attacking property and inheritance rights, it's not favouring some pensioners over others. She clearly has no understanding of what the party stands for or what voters want.Scott_P said:
Ha!Richard_Tyndall said:I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about his character.
May sacked him, unnecessarily, and needlessly viciously, before driving the party and country into the ground.
He is entitled to feel aggrieved0 -
If Tessy had been PM in 1939, she'd still be using 'peace for our time' while German bombs were falling on Warsaw.calum said:TM & soundbites !
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8738956550345523210
