politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events
Thursday night’s drama was hugely enjoyable. There’s nothing I enjoy more than a series of unfolding surprises. It’s led us to a whole new political landscape, with a whole new range of political problems to chew over.
Comments
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I could have written a similar piece.0
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Pound now junk currency. BoE must raise interest rates.0
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Only 2.4% between the two parties, wow.0
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Do we have the final scores?0
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I have made some progress in the last two years because I have become much quicker to recognise that I might be wrong. This didn’t just save me money this time, it made me money.
I don't think you should underestimate this skill. I'm up nearly £900 because I realised the value was with Labour. I wasn't expecting them to do as well as they did, but it became clear that the market was underestimating their chances.0 -
FPT
Total votes
Labour 1997 (Blair landslide)
13,518,167
Conservatives 2017 (May disaster)
13,650,900 (with 1 to come)
LD collapse since 1997 explains it of course, but looking at the Tory performance in isolation it's decent.
Lab + Con share has never increased by anything like as much in one election - huge change.
#statto0 -
The Sterling is staying at around 1.275. Upside is that potentially if Brexit is softened, or stopped completely it'll rally significantly.0
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You know if there is another election fairly soon Labour can just put out that same manifesto maybe a couple of tweaks here and there.
You CANNOT say that about the Tory Manifesto. They need a major policy review and rethink after this result. That takes time, time they might not have.0 -
FPT
Not really. As pointed out down thread, yes more younger voters did turn out but that doens't account for what happened.nielh said:Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.0 -
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Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.0 -
Oh and good thread by the way.
Once again last night i was grateful for my upbringing where my parents managed to convey to me that betting was in moral terms not far off drug taking or shoplifting :-)0 -
Alistair Meeks said:
Or I can accept that I urgently need to start seeking out new perspectives, to be checking existing ideas against new developments and generally being more open-minded. Only the second is an honest choice. So I’m going to try to take it. Who knows, it might actually be fun.
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The Tories won't concede Kensington.
Labour ahead by 38 votes I think, on second recount.
Everyone has apparently gone home as counters are out on their feet.0 -
A very thoughtful and perceptive piece.0
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How everyone mocked Damian Lyons for his DP appearance on Wednesday.
Yet the guy is pollster of the century.
All credit to him.0 -
Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?0 -
Several people are referring to the 'Herdson wobble' as significant. I missed this - could anyone provide a quick link to it? Thanks.0
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Rail and energy nationalisation policies were brilliant, and popular.jonny83 said:You know if there is another election fairly soon Labour can just put out that same manifesto maybe a couple of tweaks here and there.
You CANNOT say that about the Tory Manifesto. They need a major policy review and rethink after this result. That takes time, time they might not have.
The idea that we can't nationalise our own services but CAN nationalise them to foreign powers is just laughable.
Credit to whoever came up with those.0 -
My thoughts.
Brexit is still on, the A50 clock is still ticking and it will feel hard, not soft. We won’t be nearly ready in 2019. We weren’t anyway, but this disruption makes that date even more unachievable in an orderly way. We need to ask the EU27 for a unanimously agreed extension to the Article 50 process. The EU will demand a high price to do so. The country will pay for May’s stupidity in triggering Article 50 before we were ready to do so.
I suggest the Lib Dems, Labour and SNP try to work out a common position on Brexit and then go to the government and say, we will support your government’s negotiations if you follow our proposals. Failing agreement, Labour does the same thing. Cons+DUP don’t have the numbers to push through a slight;y controversial Brexit deal. Cons+Labour do.
UKIP is finished. Even if Brexit is “betrayed”, it won’t come back as a meaningful force.
Theresa May and David Davis need to be replaced. May can’t deliver the deal and both are associated with a failed “take it or leave it” approach to Brexit.
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Until the next election when he'll **** it up.Bobajob_PB said:How everyone mocked Damian Lyons for his DP appearance on Wednesday.
Yet the guy is pollster of the century.
All credit to him.
I'm done with polls - I know I say that every time but I really mean it this time!0 -
What happened in Birmingham? Andy Street wins the mayoralty and the the tories do abysmally?0
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Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter HitchensBobajob_PB said:Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/labour-has-a-real-leftyso-can-we-have-proper-conservatives.html0 -
No. No elections. We can't afford to fuck up again, it lets Jez into No. 10 which would be a disaster for this country. We have been dealt a poor hand and now whoever becomes PM has to play it for at least 3 years. Labour are too well organised and motivated, another election could see Jez win an overall majority.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?0 -
Agreed. Voters like lots of goodies while their heads are stuck in the sand.GIN1138 said:FPT
Not really. As pointed out down thread, yes more younger voters did turn out but that doens't account for what happened.nielh said:Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.0 -
I think this needs to be a key priority for the tories. What are they actually for now?jonny83 said:You know if there is another election fairly soon Labour can just put out that same manifesto maybe a couple of tweaks here and there.
You CANNOT say that about the Tory Manifesto. They need a major policy review and rethink after this result. That takes time, time they might not have.0 -
Brexit ref 2 will be remain landslide
Bojo to be new EU friendly Ted Heath0 -
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.0
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LOL, fair enough.GIN1138 said:
Until the next election when he'll **** it up.Bobajob_PB said:How everyone mocked Damian Lyons for his DP appearance on Wednesday.
Yet the guy is pollster of the century.
All credit to him.
I'm done with polls - I know I say that every time but I really mean it this time!
Just ask David Herdson on the eve of poll. And bet accordingly.
David must have an unbeatable shout at post of the year.0 -
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AgreeChris said:In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
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I really enjoyed the ITV coverage in particular last night/this morning. Osborne and Balls with great analysis.0
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Haven't been betting for the last couple of years, which is a good thing since I'd have been wrong about everything.
Anyhow, watching the people here who do well the impressive thing isn't how much they're right, it's how quickly they reverse themselves when they're wrong.0 -
Hard Brexit out
Rights for EU citizens in
Fox hunting out
Grammar schools Out
Four reasons to be cheerful0 -
It's not going to be easy, that's for sure. Mrs May is going to have to keep Peter Bone and Ken Clarke both happy.Chris said:In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Did you bet on Con Most Seats we discussed the other night? I got my fingers burned on the majority and the spreads, and not enough gains elsewhere
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No pity for May, shown to be wanting, never PM material.0
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Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?0
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FPT:
"JonCisBack said:
There are some amazing Lab results out there in seats they were nowhere in before, e.g.
Truro and Falmouth 37.7% +22.5!"
The unwind of the tactical votes for LibDems. Second referendum toxic down here in the SW.
Tbh, somewhat surprised the Cons held on to Camborne and Redruth. George Eustice must have run a good campaign. Fantastic result for Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moorview as well - he hoovered up the great bulk of the departing Kipper vote. (Compare to say North Devon, where the blues picked up only a quarter of it.)
Huge increase in Ben Bradshaw's personal vote in Exeter.0 -
A question for all PB Tories: How many Tory MP's will tie themselves to a sinking ship? Can May form a cabinet?0
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Well that was the worst party ever! Bubbly is still in fridge, went to bed at 0330 after only one g&t!0
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And we could get Cameron back...?Bobajob_PB said:Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
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Curtain-twitching illiberal eurosceptic Mayite provincialism out.tyson said:Hard Brexit out
Rights for EU citizens in
Fox hunting out
Grammar schools Out
Four reasons to be cheerful0 -
I think quite shortly Jezz is going to have to be given his chance to govern - The only way the bubble will burst on him and his far left policies is to let him have a chance to govern and mess it up.MaxPB said:
No. No elections. We can't afford to fuck up again, it lets Jez into No. 10 which would be a disaster for this country. We have been dealt a poor hand and now whoever becomes PM has to play it for at least 3 years. Labour are too well organised and motivated, another election could see Jez win an overall majority.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?0 -
Think you might need to learn some coding skills (or Excel wizardry might suffice) and try some YouGov style modeling. That really does look like the way forward from here!Alistair Meeks said:Or I can accept that I urgently need to start seeking out new perspectives, to be checking existing ideas against new developments and generally being more open-minded.
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No one will offer it. Jez is a Leaver and has committed to a very similar hard Brexit that May committed to. The Tories will never offer a second referendum.Bobajob_PB said:Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
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Mr Meeks,
Modesty becomes you. I too have no idea what lies ahead, but then I never did.
An odd campaign all around. Nobody went big on the Debt or the Deficit - the dog that didn't bark in the night. It's a feeling that we've done it to death and it doesn't matter any more.
In this constituency, the Labour party majority rose from 20,000 to 25,000, and this is a Northern, 58% Leave area. Things might be different in the South, but Brexit was hardly mentioned here.
I'm loathe to offer advice to the Tories. Firstly because I don't know much about politics, and secondly because they can cock it up without help from me. But ... May's gotta go, pick someone young, and remember that voters like sweeties. Austrity? So last decade.
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I wasn't going to bet, because it all looked so uncertain. But after the exit poll, when the markets moved back towards a Tory majority, I felt they must be wrong, and went for a spread bet on No Overall Majority.Sandpit said:
It's not going to be easy, that's for sure. Mrs May is going to have to keep Peter Bone and Ken Clarke both happy.Chris said:In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Did you bet on Con Most Seats we discussed the other night? I got my fingers burned on the majority and the spreads, and not enough gains elsewhere0 -
Sarah Woolaston going for the jugular and she is right on the money.0
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Sarah Wollaston very critical of the campaign and May's special advisers.0
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Do you think so? I think they'd take any kind of Brexit nowChris said:
Could be. But offering soft Brexit would leave their right flank vulnerable to UKIP.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?0 -
jonny83 said:
I really enjoyed the ITV coverage in particular last night/this morning. Osborne and Balls with great analysis.
Indeed. That would be worth a thread in its own right. Those two were absolutely excellent – they make a great duo. They are highly intelligent guys and clearly good friends. They are a massive loss to the British political scene.0 -
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No, Theresa May needs to resign. What the next Con leader does is another matter but she has to accept responsibility for this **** up and go right now.SeanT said:Well said, Mr Meeks. I'm in the same position. I've called it wrong far too often for comfort.
I did point out that No Overall Majority was incredible value at 20/1 a coupla weeks ago. But that's about it. Otherwise I've been wrong about almost everything.
Theresa May needs to show the same humility, the ridiculous bint. She needs to accept that 48% of the people don't want Brexit, that many Leavers don't want Hard Brexit, and that the young and the old have grown too far apart on everything.
She needs to deliver a very soft Brexit, and do something drastic on housing. She needs to transition us into EFTA/EEA then we all have a rethink. That's my weary and probably wrong headed analysis of the day.0 -
Cheers Mr Meeks, you are not alone, looking forward to meeting the new, humble you.
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This is the worse bit. Cameron / Osborne won the argument of socially liberal / economically conservative approach, such that at the last GE Labour and Lib Dems were offering only minor spins on this.felix said:
Agreed. Voters like lots of goodies while their heads are stuck in the sand.GIN1138 said:FPT
Not really. As pointed out down thread, yes more younger voters did turn out but that doens't account for what happened.nielh said:Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.
Now its "politics of the madhouse - this time it is genuinely insane"....0 -
It looks like if Labour had won 10 more seats they probably would have had enough to form a progressive alliance government with the SNP, LDs, Greens, PC and Corbyn would be heading for Downing Street.0
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If the Tories go for an Autumn election I expect they would lose.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
They now need to get a better leader and start delivering some quality of life improvements and stop obsessing about Europe.0 -
I would love to see SPIN Lab seats profit/loss, they were as low as 155ish.0
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Public opinion has become impossible to predict.
A disappointing result, but at least the Union emerges stronger from it.0 -
Only 3 MPs need to lodge letters with the committee right? That will definitely happen.GIN1138 said:
No, Theresa May needs to resign. What the next Con leader does is another matter but she has to accept responsibility for this **** up and go right now.SeanT said:Well said, Mr Meeks. I'm in the same position. I've called it wrong far too often for comfort.
I did point out that No Overall Majority was incredible value at 20/1 a coupla weeks ago. But that's about it. Otherwise I've been wrong about almost everything.
Theresa May needs to show the same humility, the ridiculous bint. She needs to accept that 48% of the people don't want Brexit, that many Leavers don't want Hard Brexit, and that the young and the old have grown too far apart on everything.
She needs to deliver a very soft Brexit, and do something drastic on housing. She needs to transition us into EFTA/EEA then we all have a rethink. That's my weary and probably wrong headed analysis of the day.0 -
And up against an opponent they now know is great in an election campaign.Chris said:In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
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Hello Dr W!Typo said:Sarah Woolaston going for the jugular and she is right on the money.
Leader in a government of national unity? Fantasy politics but would be quite something...0 -
We had a GE yesterday where no one offered a 2nd referendum, and most MPs were elected on a platform of accepting the resultBobajob_PB said:Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
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I think this is the worst possible result for the Tories...even a Corbyn Govt would have been better for them...they would have had the chance to regroup....
What an unholy, monumental cockup of terrible dimensions...after the chaos of Brexit, the Tories should not be allowed anywhere near government.....
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Lord Lamont says May has to go to a collective style of government and not too much reliance on Special Advisers.0
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I still don't think the Brexit process can be reversed, practically speaking, because that would require unanimous agreement, and the temptation to impose conditions on Britain's future terms of membership would be powerful.isam said:
Do you think so? I think they'd take any kind of Brexit nowChris said:
Could be. But offering soft Brexit would leave their right flank vulnerable to UKIP.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?0 -
She'll meet the Queen then start appointing her new cabinet.dixiedean said:
Where are the Cabinet? Apparently they haven't met. How can she see HM without her Cabinet's support?OchEye said:A question for all PB Tories: How many Tory MP's will tie themselves to a sinking ship? Can May form a cabinet?
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Yes It's terrible.Chris said:In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
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The Lib Dems won 12 seats on that platform.isam said:
We had a GE yesterday where no one offered a 2nd referendum, and most MPs were elected on a platform of accepting the resultBobajob_PB said:Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
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What kind of moron campaigns on fox hunting? FFS.0
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This, however now we're playing by the madhouse's rules I want my goodies.FrancisUrquhart said:
This is the worse bit. Cameron / Osborne won the argument of socially liberal / economically conservative approach, such that at the last GE Labour and Lib Dems were offering only minor spins on this.felix said:
Agreed. Voters like lots of goodies while their heads are stuck in the sand.GIN1138 said:FPT
Not really. As pointed out down thread, yes more younger voters did turn out but that doens't account for what happened.nielh said:Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.
Now its "politics of the madhouse - this time it is genuinely insane"....0 -
A minority Corbyn government is better for everyone else than a majority one. Esp with the FTPA.GIN1138 said:
I think quite shortly Jezz is going to have to be given his chance to govern - The only way the bubble will burst on him and his far left policies is to let him have a chance to govern and mess it up.MaxPB said:
No. No elections. We can't afford to fuck up again, it lets Jez into No. 10 which would be a disaster for this country. We have been dealt a poor hand and now whoever becomes PM has to play it for at least 3 years. Labour are too well organised and motivated, another election could see Jez win an overall majority.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?0 -
Fair doesSean_F said:
The Lib Dems won 12 seats on that platform.isam said:
We had a GE yesterday where no one offered a 2nd referendum, and most MPs were elected on a platform of accepting the resultBobajob_PB said:Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
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How surprising. A seriously perceptive article by Hitchinsisam said:
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter HitchensBobajob_PB said:Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/labour-has-a-real-leftyso-can-we-have-proper-conservatives.html0 -
No complaints from me if she's Health Secretary this evening, either.Bobajob_PB said:
Hello Dr W!Typo said:Sarah Woolaston going for the jugular and she is right on the money.
Leader in a government of national unity? Fantasy politics but would be quite something...0 -
I am a die-hard Remainer but even I believe that there is no way we can have a second referendum. We are such damaged goods now that the EU is well rid of us. This country is practically schizophrenic towards Europe.Bobajob_PB said:Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
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The worst bit, the Lib Dems probably had the most sensible manifesto when it came to economics.Chameleon said:
This, however now we're playing by the madhouse's rules I want my goodies.FrancisUrquhart said:
This is the worse bit. Cameron / Osborne won the argument of socially liberal / economically conservative approach, such that at the last GE Labour and Lib Dems were offering only minor spins on this.felix said:
Agreed. Voters like lots of goodies while their heads are stuck in the sand.GIN1138 said:FPT
Not really. As pointed out down thread, yes more younger voters did turn out but that doens't account for what happened.nielh said:Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.
Now its "politics of the madhouse - this time it is genuinely insane"....
1p on income tax for NHS and social care, that sounds perfectly sensible to me, it is neither going to cripple people or have people running for the exit doors or unwilling to set up business....or worrying their homes are going to be taken from them.
And the voters went....WHERE ARE MY SWEETIES.....0 -
That's probably what's going to happen.Chris said:
I still don't think the Brexit process can be reversed, practically speaking, because that would require unanimous agreement, and the temptation to impose conditions on Britain's future terms of membership would be powerful.isam said:
Do you think so? I think they'd take any kind of Brexit nowChris said:
Could be. But offering soft Brexit would leave their right flank vulnerable to UKIP.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
We'll finish up more "integrated" in the EU not less...0 -
The worst thing for them is that they are still the incumbents, they still have to own Brexit.EDW20000 said:
AgreeChris said:In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
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Article 50 can be cancelled if the EU agrees so, and we are after all the second largest net contributors. However we may have to wave goodbye the the rebate.Chris said:
I still don't think the Brexit process can be reversed, practically speaking, because that would require unanimous agreement, and the temptation to impose conditions on Britain's future terms of membership would be powerful.isam said:
Do you think so? I think they'd take any kind of Brexit nowChris said:
Could be. But offering soft Brexit would leave their right flank vulnerable to UKIP.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?0 -
Yes, I think this is basically where we're at. A quick EU negotiation, accept EEA/EFTA, pay them €30bn or whatever and the €3-5bn per year access charge and call it a day. Get on with the business of government sooner rather than later, stop banging on about the deficit, keep cutting taxes for the low paid, keep the minimum wage rising and hammer buy-to-let landlords until they are forced to sell, support first time buyers with government backed mortgages. I would also hope that the next Tory PM makes a big pledge to give the NHS £350m per week and we draw a line under the leave campaign.JonathanD said:
If the Tories go for an Autumn election I expect they would lose.isam said:Don't be so hard on yourself Alastair.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
They now need to get a better leader and start delivering some quality of life improvements and stop obsessing about Europe.0 -
Who is the Torbay tory campaigning poster?
Seems to have had a splendid result down there, majority more or less quadrupled. One happy Tory at least.0 -
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?0 -
I'm eating so much humble pie with my Corbyn mates......Roger said:
How surprising. A seriously perceptive article by Hitchinsisam said:
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter HitchensBobajob_PB said:Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/labour-has-a-real-leftyso-can-we-have-proper-conservatives.html
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I agree with Mr Meeks.
Many thanks to tipsters here whose antennae enabled me to make a pleasing little profit on Scon. Poor result politically for me but a night of great nerd fun, too. Thank you, OGH, TSE, other mods and (almost) all posters for providing absolutely the best place to be during elections.0 -
You forgot a party from the middle ages directing our government.tyson said:Hard Brexit out
Rights for EU citizens in
Fox hunting out
Grammar schools Out
Four reasons to be cheerful0 -
That's a beautifully written piece, Alastair. Mea culpa's? First, assuming that enough Eurosceptics would realise Leave didn't have a plan or clue about how to Brexit. It seems it wasn't a case them of them not realising the absence of a plan; they didn't think it mattered. The second was the assumption that because Jeremy Corbyn wasn't a leader, no-one would vote for him. Incidentally, I wasn't opposed to him on the issues. It was that he didn't have any policies, which involve choices and priorities. Then something remarkable happened. Mr Corbyn decided to become a serious politician after forty years. To do the compromises, dissembling and spin that all politicians go through. The Labour manifesto was the first sign of this. Yes there was a deal of moneytree in it, but essentially it was a social democratic document where every proposal was rigorously focus-grouped.0
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Alastair - like you I'm bemused. I do think there remain two or three key themes running through it all though:
1. We're a patiriotic bunch and don't like being bossed about or perceived unfairness. Don't like the EU but don't like getting told how to vote either.
2. Paul has more votes than Peter and wants some of his jam. Especially the young 'uns.
3. Parties need charismatic, engaging leaders. Not Brown / May type automatons.
If Labour can rediscover their inner Union Jack / England flag and be a bit less Islington they'll clean up nexy time - until we're bankrupt and then the Tories are back.
Meanwhile the Tories need to find a communicator and accept that the 'sound money god' can't survive too much inequality.0 -
This CON+DUP is farcical.
It only makes 328.
That is a total joke. Sinn Fein could just take their seats temporarily to defeat their arch enemies and the pact would be within one MP rebellion of losing its majority.
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