Ironic that the youth made their voice heard send it's pensioners that will benefit. Triple lock will stay, social care will get binned, WFA probably stays too. And so do tuition fees. Febrile atmosphere incoming
Even if Corbyn did get his way with free tuition, da yuff would still end up paying for it in direct taxation (rather than a capped graduate tax that we have now). They think they are being offered a free lunch, but it isn't true.
I doubt the 4 million who voted will see it that way.
Well no, but that is the truth.
The whole narrative of uni fees is false, you here all these parents saying how am I going to pay (you don't), students saying how will I pay (though taxation just like the old days, just via a different method)...
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
How surprising. A seriously perceptive article by Hitchins
How to retoxify the Tories: a routemap.
They are already retoxified.
With more votes than they received in decades?
She needs to be seeen to listen and change tact on Brexit.
Yes.
It was suggested by some that we need a new election, but fuck that. It will be very very hard to govern moving forward, but it is what it is, and they all need to make it work. A national government is a non starter, there's not much incentive for others to join it, and though Tories might hope for a majority if they had another election, more likely they'd lose (as they'd need a new manifesto, while Labour have one that is provably popular that is good to go), and in any case we need to get a move on with a lot of things.
Staying in power with a minority and DUP backing will probably mean a Labour landslide in 2022, but they may well need to take that hit for the country. 12 years in power is a good run anyway. And to last that 12 years, the Tory hardliners will need to accept that, among other factors, a less strident tone on Brexit made advances, and given it had support in their own ranks too, it is the probable most popular option.
Soft brexit, whatever that even means, may well be a mirage, but it is a mirage that currently needs to be aimed for to see if it is possible or not, otherwise the numbers don't support a government.
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
It's amazing (and a little sad) that a manifesto full of free owls and free university, without a clue how it would be all paid for, was allowed to go almost completely unchallenged.
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
You were awake during the EU Referendum yeah?
Hell yeah! No matter what we think of this or any government, at least we can for for or against them. No-one voted for Drunker and no-one can get rid of him, that's not democracy.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
No, we can't risk it. We have to now play the hand we've been dealt.
Agreed. But we do need a new different leader with some passion and who actually gives us motivation to vote for them. I voted for May but only to stop Corbyn and would hazard a guess I'm far from unique.
A man who knows about difficult choices in the national interest. No coalition is coming, of course, but we will need people willing to take difficult decisions even at the cost of electoral consequences later.
Thinking about it further, Clegg losing may be good overall for the LDs. the last vestiges of coalition toxicity are gone, tactical voting back to the fore. At the same Clegg can join Balls on the rehabilitation front - he has been served his 'punishment', now he is on the road to recovery.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
er...which is what Cameron did and was.
Indeed. If the Tories had any sense they'd be begging him to come back on hands and knees. Does anyone seriously doubt he would have slaughtered Corbyn. Only lobotomy candidates.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
Will any Tories be brave enough to refuse cabinet seats or call on May to go to her face?
I think they will only agree if she agrees to jump in 10 days and trigger a leadership election, tbh, the party may just no confidence her with Graham Brady.
In other news, I have renewed my party membership after letting it lapse earlier this year when I realised how awful Theresa was. Time to look forwards and make the best of it I think,
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
It's amazing (and a little sad) that a manifesto full of free owls and free university, without a clue how it would be all paid for, was allowed to go almost completely unchallenged.
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
Wrong way round. Labour's manifesto was costed. The Conservative one was not, though as Theresa May ditched half of it in the first week then never mentioned it again, perhaps it does not matter so much.
These are the moment the politicians need to earn their money, and for political parties to prove their worth - they have visions, and enforce discipline, both of which are needed at times of crisis and uncertainty rather than every MP for themselves, and it is for times like this that the senior figures needs to take hard, practical action, quickly, setting out a new approach for the country.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
No, we can't risk it. We have to now play the hand we've been dealt.
Agreed. But we do need a new different leader with some passion and who actually gives us motivation to vote for them. I voted for May but only to stop Corbyn and would hazard a guess I'm far from unique.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
How surprising. A seriously perceptive article by Hitchins
I'm eating so much humble pie with my Corbyn mates......
He grows on you slowly. I wouldn't have voted for him until the last week when he suddenly transformed into someone modern and revolutionary and I could see what all the fuss was about. Che with a smile.
I got his appeal too....late in the day...it was watching the QT audience that did it for me,.,.,.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
Will any Tories be brave enough to refuse cabinet seats or call on May to go to her face?
I think they will only agree if she agrees to jump in 10 days and trigger a leadership election, tbh, the party may just no confidence her with Graham Brady.
In other news, I have renewed my party membership after letting it lapse earlier this year when I realised how awful Theresa was. Time to look forwards and make the best of it I think,
Get a good leader in and the Tories should win a majority next election.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
Excellent piece Alistair. I chastise myself. I should have seen this coming for three reasons:
1) Throughout her entire career, I've regarded May as Britain's worst politician - a droning dud who only ever answers perfectly reasonable question with irrelevant boilerplate.
2) After the Dementia Tax debacle I met some relatives - normally unimpeachably loyal Tories - who were utterly withering. This should have been a straw in the wind.
3) The reasoning that the young won't turn out for Jezza because they never do was completely circular: the young hadn't turned out previously simply because they'd never before had anyone like jezza.
But I bought in to the narrative that Martin Boon was a genius, because I stupidly failed to see that those declaring him a genius just liked what he was saying. I'm an idiot.
So the people have returned a result which is complicated, confused and uncertain, without a perfect storm where the numbers don't quite stack up for either side, and we are reliant on the professionalism and non-partisanship of our politicians to seem some way forward from all this. Oops.
Worst thing is, I also lost money on this!
In other words she asked a supid question and she got a stupid answer.
Peter A Smith @PeterAdamSmith 2m2 minutes ago More For 1st time since Sturgeon became FM, I now hear SNP members question direction she's taking the party. Not a coup; more an alarm sounding.
I'm not sure if the fact that Salmond lost his seat make Sturgeon safer or more at risk. He's also been cut down so no obvious waiting in the wings moment, yet he is certainly now going to be looking for a way to become an MSP and leader again.
There will be a couple of By-elections with MSP becoming MPs in few months. Not that Salmond will want to stand and lose again. Think Sturgeon is safe in the short term but the focus will be on Holyrood and the delivery of Health and Education. If the SNP continue to fail in those areas and the opinion polls show a further eroding of support then she will be out in a couple of years. Too many MSPs will be worried about 2021 for it not to happen.
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
It's amazing (and a little sad) that a manifesto full of free owls and free university, without a clue how it would be all paid for, was allowed to go almost completely unchallenged.
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
Wrong way round. Labour's manifesto was costed. The Conservative one was not, though as Theresa May ditched half of it in the first week then never mentioned it again, perhaps it does not matter so much.
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
It's amazing (and a little sad) that a manifesto full of free owls and free university, without a clue how it would be all paid for, was allowed to go almost completely unchallenged.
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
Wrong way round. Labour's manifesto was costed. The Conservative one was not, though as Theresa May ditched half of it in the first week then never mentioned it again, perhaps it does not matter so much.
Labour need to get behind Corbyn and agree to serve in his shadow cabinet. Corbyn himself is clearly not toxic, and imagine if he wasn't forced to rely on people like Burgon or Abbott. A Corbyn led party with people like Umuna and Yvette in cabinet could see a Labour majority at the next election (which will almost certainly be before 2022).
Yvette definitely. Chuka not sure about. I'd rather bring in Liz Kendall tbh. The fact that Corbyn is now behind official policy on trident surely shows he I willing to compromise.
Cameron could never have dreamed that his record for a PM's quickest fall from grace would be beaten so quickly.
The DUP have said they'll support the Tories against Labour for as long as Lab leadership is led by people tainted with IRA 'history'.
Tories can't afford a second election until they can come together under a more inspiring leader who can carry both wings of the party with him/her.
Tracey Crouch needs to start touring the TV studios asap (500-1 bet cough)
Huge Tory vote share means actually how can they go in to an election hoping to score more, if boundary reforms are dead then presume retail offers needed now to buy-off the youf as well as the grey vote.
Social care reform, much needed but once again kicked in to the long grass.
Yet again Nate Silver made a good point with the polls. Most of them were adjusting their raw data to a huge extent, should have raised more alarm bells.
Inter Alia, The massive vote for Corbyn also shows that voters aren't THAT fussed about immigration.
They aren't that fussed about deficit, or debt, or defending the country. Just jam the gold into their mouthes.
It wasn't the voters that abandoned austerity, it was the Tory party when they embraced Brexit fantasy economics.
It's the illusion that because the nation voted for Brexit they would flock to a right wing Tory party that was so deranged. For most people in many walks of life it was a periphery issue until the referendum. Unfortunately they never learn. Imbeciles. One effing majority since 1992 and because it's achieved under a leader they don't consider sound they not only boot him out but lose their majority within 2 years. It truly beggars belief.
There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader
Outside of the Corbynites, the idée reçue amongst most of us is that Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour at a general election is going to lead Labour to experiencing an extinction level electoral defeat. On my most charitable days I’ll say Jeremy Corbyn has only two flaws, everything he says, and everything he does, but I’m going to challenge that perception and defend Jeremy Corbyn.
In the end it was anti austerity which sent the largest protest vote as Corbyn made clear in his speech was the main reason for the increased Labour voteshare, coupled with anti 'dementia tax' not anti Brexit given the fact the LDs saw no real surge
Will any Tories be brave enough to refuse cabinet seats or call on May to go to her face?
I think they will only agree if she agrees to jump in 10 days and trigger a leadership election, tbh, the party may just no confidence her with Graham Brady.
In other news, I have renewed my party membership after letting it lapse earlier this year when I realised how awful Theresa was. Time to look forwards and make the best of it I think,
Get a good leader in and the Tories should win a majority next election.
Labour is well on course to win the next election whenever it comes.
A few thoughts on last night and especially the LibDems:
1. There were some really stupid "LibDems gain [x]" calls during the night. Vauxhall: wasn't close. Witney: they were third. Were people trying to move betting prices through outright lying?
2. The LibDems are no longer toxic and people will vote tactically for them.
3. The LibDems nearly ended up on 16. St Ives was my value loser of the night, in Fife NE they lose by TWO votes. Ceredgion and Richmond Park were also terrifically close.
4. The focus on Remainia worked in SW London, in Bath and in OxWAb. It was a disaster in many parts of the West Country.
5. The LibDems vote share was down meaningfully on 2015. Running the election campaign as 20 by-elections worked for keeping seats, but the LDs went backwards on their dreadful 2015 result.
6. Alistair Carmichael got 20% fewer votes than the LD candidates in the Holyrood election got. He still outpolled the SNP almost 2-1. It was never close.
Cameron could never have dreamed that his record for a PM's quickest fall from grace would be beaten so quickly.
The DUP have said they'll support the Tories against Labour for as long as Lab leadership is led by people tainted with IRA 'history'.
Tories can't afford a second election until they can come together under a more inspiring leader who can carry both wings of the party with him/her.
Tracey Crouch needs to start touring the TV studios asap (500-1 bet cough)
Huge Tory vote share means actually how can they go in to an election hoping to score more, if boundary reforms are dead then presume retail offers needed now to buy-off the youf as well as the grey vote.
Social care reform, much needed but once again kicked in to the long grass.
Can Ruth be a Deputy PM?
Just a point about the yuff vs the oldies. Wasn't it that Kim Jong May lost her massive lead with the middle age bracket the killer? When she was miles ahead in the polls, Jezza was still winning massively with the yuff, but May was walking it was anybody over 35. One of the last polls showed May was only winning with the oldies by the end and all those below pension age had sided with Jezza.
Might be worth exploring the reasons why that was the case?
Will any Tories be brave enough to refuse cabinet seats or call on May to go to her face?
I think they will only agree if she agrees to jump in 10 days and trigger a leadership election, tbh, the party may just no confidence her with Graham Brady.
In other news, I have renewed my party membership after letting it lapse earlier this year when I realised how awful Theresa was. Time to look forwards and make the best of it I think,
Get a good leader in and the Tories should win a majority next election.
Labour is well on course to win the next election whenever it comes.
Not with 44% of the country and over 300 seats against them, Labour will be a strong opposition now that does not mean the country wants them in government
In the end it was anti austerity which sent the largest protest vote as Corbyn made clear in his speech was the main reason for the increased Labour voteshare, coupled with anti 'dementia tax' not anti Brexit given the fact the LDs saw no real surge
A few thoughts on last night and especially the LibDems:
1. There were some really stupid "LibDems gain [x]" calls during the night. Vauxhall: wasn't close. Witney: they were third. Were people trying to move betting prices through outright lying?
2. The LibDems are no longer toxic and people will vote tactically for them.
3. The LibDems nearly ended up on 16. St Ives was my value loser of the night, in Fife NE they lose by TWO votes. Ceredgion and Richmond Park were also terrifically close.
4. The focus on Remainia worked in SW London, in Bath and in OxWAb. It was a disaster in many parts of the West Country.
5. The LibDems vote share was down meaningfully on 2015. Running the election campaign as 20 by-elections worked for keeping seats, but the LDs went backwards on their dreadful 2015 result.
6. Alistair Carmichael got 20% fewer votes than the LD candidates in the Holyrood election got. He still outpolled the SNP almost 2-1. It was never close.
I'm not sure whether it was a good result, or a bad result for the LDs.
Will any Tories be brave enough to refuse cabinet seats or call on May to go to her face?
I think they will only agree if she agrees to jump in 10 days and trigger a leadership election, tbh, the party may just no confidence her with Graham Brady.
In other news, I have renewed my party membership after letting it lapse earlier this year when I realised how awful Theresa was. Time to look forwards and make the best of it I think,
Get a good leader in and the Tories should win a majority next election.
Isn't that what May tried and failed.........??
The Tories will cling on to power knowing full well that the next election will result in PM Corbyn......
Corbyn now has momentum, he is no longer toxic, and Labour will unify.....and he obviously loves being leader......
Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
I am a die-hard Remainer but even I believe that there is no way we can have a second referendum. We are such damaged goods now that the EU is well rid of us. This country is practically schizophrenic towards Europe.
I just wish I had been more vocal and trenchant in my criticism of Theresa May before the election.
She was doing fine before the election, it's what she did in the past 7 weeks that was the problem. I refuse to believe she couldn't have done better, unfortunately she must take the blame for the advice she took and believing she didn't need the help of some of the big beasts.
Cameron could never have dreamed that his record for a PM's quickest fall from grace would be beaten so quickly.
The DUP have said they'll support the Tories against Labour for as long as Lab leadership is led by people tainted with IRA 'history'.
Tories can't afford a second election until they can come together under a more inspiring leader who can carry both wings of the party with him/her.
Tracey Crouch needs to start touring the TV studios asap (500-1 bet cough)
Huge Tory vote share means actually how can they go in to an election hoping to score more, if boundary reforms are dead then presume retail offers needed now to buy-off the youf as well as the grey vote.
Social care reform, much needed but once again kicked in to the long grass.
Can Ruth be a Deputy PM?
Just a point about the yuff vs the oldies. Wasn't it that Kim Jong May lost her massive lead with the middle age bracket the killer? When she was miles ahead in the polls, Jezza was still winning massively with the yuff, but May was walking it was anybody over 35. One of the last polls showed May was only winning with the oldies by the end.
Quite the achievement to manage to offend every single age group in 7 weeks.
There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader
Outside of the Corbynites, the idée reçue amongst most of us is that Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour at a general election is going to lead Labour to experiencing an extinction level electoral defeat. On my most charitable days I’ll say Jeremy Corbyn has only two flaws, everything he says, and everything he does, but I’m going to challenge that perception and defend Jeremy Corbyn.
The thing is that he's proven to be an effective campaigner but a useless leader. Had he taken his party with him over the last 18 months he'd have won the referendum for remain and this election.
Peter A Smith @PeterAdamSmith 2m2 minutes ago More For 1st time since Sturgeon became FM, I now hear SNP members question direction she's taking the party. Not a coup; more an alarm sounding.
I'm not sure if the fact that Salmond lost his seat make Sturgeon safer or more at risk. He's also been cut down so no obvious waiting in the wings moment, yet he is certainly now going to be looking for a way to become an MSP and leader again.
There will be a couple of By-elections with MSP becoming MPs in few months. Not that Salmond will want to stand and lose again.
No, there won't be any such by-elections. There was one last night, won by the Tories, after a constituency MSP stood and won as an MP. All the other MSPs who won were list MSPs, when the next on the list moves up to take their place. The Tories in North-East Scotland were so successful that if all their new MPs resign as MSPs they run out of list! The alternative is double-jobbing.
Yet again Nate Silver made a good point with the polls. Most of them were adjusting their raw data to a huge extent, should have raised more alarm bells.
If they had just kept reporting the raw figures they would of looked pretty good. Suppose they have to justify the fee by messing around with the figures. Not as if parties massage the figures of their own canvassing to get a more accurate picture.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
er...which is what Cameron did and was.
Indeed. If the Tories had any sense they'd be begging him to come back on hands and knees. Does anyone seriously doubt he would have slaughtered Corbyn. Only lobotomy candidates.
The vote was an anti austerity vote as much as anything, Cameron would not have got as many Kippers though he would have held more centrists and Corbyn even led him in one or 2 polls. I think Boris is the only leader who would have done better
Excellent piece Alistair. I chastise myself. I should have seen this coming for three reasons:
1) Throughout her entire career, I've regarded May as Britain's worst politician - a droning dud who only ever answers perfectly reasonable question with irrelevant boilerplate.
2) After the Dementia Tax debacle I met some relatives - normally unimpeachably loyal Tories - who were utterly withering. This should have been a straw in the wind.
3) The reasoning that the young won't turn out for Jezza because they never do was completely circular: the young hadn't turned out previously simply because they'd never before had anyone like jezza.
But I bought in to the narrative that Martin Boon was a genius, because I stupidly failed to see that those declaring him a genius just liked what he was saying. I'm an idiot.
I banged on and on about how Opinion Polls should exclude the politically engaged... Someone ( @viewcode ?) pointed out YouGov were doing that all along, and I didn't pounce!
I had two bets at the start, Labour to hold Dagenham and UKIP to get less than 10%.. both came in and I lost a couple of grand somehow!
Anyway, having been up for far too long all day and night, I've grabbed a few hours sleep, but thought I'd pop on as I'll likely give PB a bit of a break from my ramblings for a bit, and wouldn't want people to think that just because I was so very very wrong about things that I was too embarrassed to show my face
Congratulations to Corbyn and well done young people, and others, for turning out; very tough times are ahead now (not that things were simple before) and I do think things will get worse before they get better, but let us see Corbyn and May and the rest actually do their jobs and lead this nation. That doesn't mean I expect them to join hands and sing Kumbaya, but the government needs to get smarter and more cautious about what it tries to do, and the opposition, flush with momentum and thoughts of a win in 2022 to look forward to, need to do the same when they challenge what the government is doing as well. Brinkmanship is popular, but everyone needs to be grown ups now.
I hope they are up to it.
And now back to more pleasant matters, the realms of fiction: I'm reading 'Wool' by Hugh Howey - so far it is about a world of scarcity and a hostile outside environment, where the established order is breaking down into chaos as factions battle for control and the very survival of their world is at stake. Seems far fetched
I just wish I had been more vocal and trenchant in my criticism of Theresa May before the election.
She was doing fine before the election, it's what she did in the past 7 weeks that was the problem. I refuse to believe she couldn't have done better, unfortunately she must take the blame for the advice she took and believing she didn't need the help of some of the big beasts.
I'd be fascinated to know how much wonk-power and focus grouping etc was put into their manifesto, let alone critical input from experienced Tory politicians.
In the end it was anti austerity which sent the largest protest vote as Corbyn made clear in his speech was the main reason for the increased Labour voteshare, coupled with anti 'dementia tax' not anti Brexit given the fact the LDs saw no real surge
I think it was partly Brexit too.
Only in some staunch Remain areas, the fact the Tories made some gains in Leave areas in any case counteracts that
That's what being a pundit is all about. You're not a prognosticator, if you also happen to prognosticate; you're a commentator, and the key is confidence, no matter what!
I just wish I had been more vocal and trenchant in my criticism of Theresa May before the election.
She was doing fine before the election, it's what she did in the past 7 weeks that was the problem. I refuse to believe she couldn't have done better, unfortunately she must take the blame for the advice she took and believing she didn't need the help of some of the big beasts.
I'd be fascinated to know how much wonk-power and focus grouping etc was put into their manifesto, let alone critical input from experienced Tory politicians.
Suspect the answer is "back of a fag packet".
There is no way that manifesto was properly focus grouped...for starters no Tory / Tory leaners on here thought it was any good at all (and that is being generous).
A few thoughts on last night and especially the LibDems:
1. There were some really stupid "LibDems gain [x]" calls during the night. Vauxhall: wasn't close. Witney: they were third. Were people trying to move betting prices through outright lying?
2. The LibDems are no longer toxic and people will vote tactically for them.
3. The LibDems nearly ended up on 16. St Ives was my value loser of the night, in Fife NE they lose by TWO votes. Ceredgion and Richmond Park were also terrifically close.
4. The focus on Remainia worked in SW London, in Bath and in OxWAb. It was a disaster in many parts of the West Country.
5. The LibDems vote share was down meaningfully on 2015. Running the election campaign as 20 by-elections worked for keeping seats, but the LDs went backwards on their dreadful 2015 result.
6. Alistair Carmichael got 20% fewer votes than the LD candidates in the Holyrood election got. He still outpolled the SNP almost 2-1. It was never close.
I was on that Fife one too! Actually backed more winners than losers, but Betfair Sportbook restricted me so much on the winners it barely made a difference! They were laying £25 on the winners and the betting shops were laying £200 on the losers!
Anyway, having been up for far too long all day and night, I've grabbed a few hours sleep, but thought I'd pop on as I'll likely give PB a bit of a break from my ramblings for a bit, and wouldn't want people to think that just because I was so very very wrong about things that I was too embarrassed to show my face
Congratulations to Corbyn and well done young people, and others, for turning out; very tough times are ahead now (not that things were simple before) and I do think things will get worse before they get better, but let us see Corbyn and May and the rest actually do their jobs and lead this nation. That doesn't mean I expect them to join hands and sing Kumbaya, but the government needs to get smarter and more cautious about what it tries to do, and the opposition, flush with momentum and thoughts of a win in 2022 to look forward to, need to do the same when they challenge what the government is doing as well. Brinkmanship is popular, but everyone needs to be grown ups now.
I hope they are up to it.
And now back to more pleasant matters, the realms of fiction: I'm reading 'Wool' by Hugh Howey - so far it is about a world of scarcity and a hostile outside environment, where the established order is breaking down into chaos as factions battle for control and the very survival of their world is at stake. Seems far fetched
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
Peter A Smith @PeterAdamSmith 2m2 minutes ago More For 1st time since Sturgeon became FM, I now hear SNP members question direction she's taking the party. Not a coup; more an alarm sounding.
I'm not sure if the fact that Salmond lost his seat make Sturgeon safer or more at risk. He's also been cut down so no obvious waiting in the wings moment, yet he is certainly now going to be looking for a way to become an MSP and leader again.
There will be a couple of By-elections with MSP becoming MPs in few months. Not that Salmond will want to stand and lose again.
No, there won't be any such by-elections. There was one last night, won by the Tories, after a constituency MSP stood and won as an MP. All the other MSPs who won were list MSPs, when the next on the list moves up to take their place. The Tories in North-East Scotland were so successful that if all their new MPs resign as MSPs they run out of list! The alternative is double-jobbing.
Sorry your are right, I thought that the one of the NE gains was made by a constituency MSP.
Oh to be a fly on the wall when May meets Her Maj. Publicly she has to stay out of Politics but privately she does hold views and is not afraid to air them. Lot of ex PM's say that.
Cameron could never have dreamed that his record for a PM's quickest fall from grace would be beaten so quickly.
The DUP have said they'll support the Tories against Labour for as long as Lab leadership is led by people tainted with IRA 'history'.
Tories can't afford a second election until they can come together under a more inspiring leader who can carry both wings of the party with him/her.
Tracey Crouch needs to start touring the TV studios asap (500-1 bet cough)
Huge Tory vote share means actually how can they go in to an election hoping to score more, if boundary reforms are dead then presume retail offers needed now to buy-off the youf as well as the grey vote.
Social care reform, much needed but once again kicked in to the long grass.
Can Ruth be a Deputy PM?
Just a point about the yuff vs the oldies. Wasn't it that Kim Jong May lost her massive lead with the middle age bracket the killer? When she was miles ahead in the polls, Jezza was still winning massively with the yuff, but May was walking it was anybody over 35. One of the last polls showed May was only winning with the oldies by the end and all those below pension age had sided with Jezza.
Might be worth exploring the reasons why that was the case?
Oh to be a fly on the wall when May meets Her Maj. Publicly she has to stay out of Politics but privately she does hold views and is not afraid to air them. Lot of ex PM's say that.
I suspect she'll take May to buck her ideas up and to get out.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
er...which is what Cameron did and was.
Indeed. If the Tories had any sense they'd be begging him to come back on hands and knees. Does anyone seriously doubt he would have slaughtered Corbyn. Only lobotomy candidates.
The vote was an anti austerity vote as much as anything, Cameron would not have got as many Kippers though he would have held more centrists and Corbyn even led him in one or 2 polls. I think Boris is the only leader who would have done better
The results in London, Reading, Canterbury to an extent and many other close shaves in Remain areas were entirely due to Brexit. Many of those areas have affluent populations. Corbyn led him in a couple of polls before UKIP went South. I'd also point out the Tories had poll leads of up to 8 percent under Cameron even in the run up to the referendum. I'd respectfully say that in a 2 horse race IDS would have struggled to do worse than May. Cameron would have been double figures ahead.
Anyway, having been up for far too long all day and night, I've grabbed a few hours sleep, but thought I'd pop on as I'll likely give PB a bit of a break from my ramblings for a bit, and wouldn't want people to think that just because I was so very very wrong about things that I was too embarrassed to show my face
Congratulations to Corbyn and well done young people, and others, for turning out; very tough times are ahead now (not that things were simple before) and I do think things will get worse before they get better, but let us see Corbyn and May and the rest actually do their jobs and lead this nation. That doesn't mean I expect them to join hands and sing Kumbaya, but the government needs to get smarter and more cautious about what it tries to do, and the opposition, flush with momentum and thoughts of a win in 2022 to look forward to, need to do the same when they challenge what the government is doing as well. Brinkmanship is popular, but everyone needs to be grown ups now.
I hope they are up to it.
And now back to more pleasant matters, the realms of fiction: I'm reading 'Wool' by Hugh Howey - so far it is about a world of scarcity and a hostile outside environment, where the established order is breaking down into chaos as factions battle for control and the very survival of their world is at stake. Seems far fetched
We don't need a break from your ramblings.
Kind of you to say - but I probably need a break.
Do people think this would be a good time to admit to my exulting Corbynite relatives that I voted Tory? Granted, they got fewer votes, but they are closer to feeling victorious than the Tories, so might be more inclined to treat the news magnanimously.
Congratulations to Labour and Corbyn. They now find themselves in a very interesting and strong position, just as the country appears hopelessly split. And congratulations to all the new MPs of all parties - I hope you serve your constituents and the country well.
Will politics ever get boring again? We've had year after year of weird, barely predictable events, and it looks as though that trend is continuing.
Oh to be a fly on the wall when May meets Her Maj. Publicly she has to stay out of Politics but privately she does hold views and is not afraid to air them. Lot of ex PM's say that.
Hopefully Her Maj will have some cogent advice on how to deal with a crisis!
Comments
The whole narrative of uni fees is false, you here all these parents saying how am I going to pay (you don't), students saying how will I pay (though taxation just like the old days, just via a different method)...
It was suggested by some that we need a new election, but fuck that. It will be very very hard to govern moving forward, but it is what it is, and they all need to make it work. A national government is a non starter, there's not much incentive for others to join it, and though Tories might hope for a majority if they had another election, more likely they'd lose (as they'd need a new manifesto, while Labour have one that is provably popular that is good to go), and in any case we need to get a move on with a lot of things.
Staying in power with a minority and DUP backing will probably mean a Labour landslide in 2022, but they may well need to take that hit for the country. 12 years in power is a good run anyway. And to last that 12 years, the Tory hardliners will need to accept that, among other factors, a less strident tone on Brexit made advances, and given it had support in their own ranks too, it is the probable most popular option.
Soft brexit, whatever that even means, may well be a mirage, but it is a mirage that currently needs to be aimed for to see if it is possible or not, otherwise the numbers don't support a government.
Let's spare a thought for the other losers last night, the Scottish Greens
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/873103795328229379
https://twitter.com/dsandersontimes/status/873057600966844422
Does anyone seriously doubt he would have slaughtered Corbyn. Only lobotomy candidates.
In other news, I have renewed my party membership after letting it lapse earlier this year when I realised how awful Theresa was. Time to look forwards and make the best of it I think,
1) Throughout her entire career, I've regarded May as Britain's worst politician - a droning dud who only ever answers perfectly reasonable question with irrelevant boilerplate.
2) After the Dementia Tax debacle I met some relatives - normally unimpeachably loyal Tories - who were utterly withering. This should have been a straw in the wind.
3) The reasoning that the young won't turn out for Jezza because they never do was completely circular: the young hadn't turned out previously simply because they'd never before had anyone like jezza.
But I bought in to the narrative that Martin Boon was a genius, because I stupidly failed to see that those declaring him a genius just liked what he was saying. I'm an idiot.
Think Sturgeon is safe in the short term but the focus will be on Holyrood and the delivery of Health and Education. If the SNP continue to fail in those areas and the opinion polls show a further eroding of support then she will be out in a couple of years. Too many MSPs will be worried about 2021 for it not to happen.
Difficult to disagree with any of it.
The fact that Corbyn is now behind official policy on trident surely shows he I willing to compromise.
Cameron could never have dreamed that his record for a PM's quickest fall from grace would be beaten so quickly.
The DUP have said they'll support the Tories against Labour for as long as Lab leadership is led by people tainted with IRA 'history'.
Tories can't afford a second election until they can come together under a more inspiring leader who can carry both wings of the party with him/her.
Tracey Crouch needs to start touring the TV studios asap (500-1 bet cough)
Huge Tory vote share means actually how can they go in to an election hoping to score more, if boundary reforms are dead then presume retail offers needed now to buy-off the youf as well as the grey vote.
Social care reform, much needed but once again kicked in to the long grass.
Can Ruth be a Deputy PM?
There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader
Outside of the Corbynites, the idée reçue amongst most of us is that Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour at a general election is going to lead Labour to experiencing an extinction level electoral defeat. On my most charitable days I’ll say Jeremy Corbyn has only two flaws, everything he says, and everything he does, but I’m going to challenge that perception and defend Jeremy Corbyn.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/
1. There were some really stupid "LibDems gain [x]" calls during the night. Vauxhall: wasn't close. Witney: they were third. Were people trying to move betting prices through outright lying?
2. The LibDems are no longer toxic and people will vote tactically for them.
3. The LibDems nearly ended up on 16. St Ives was my value loser of the night, in Fife NE they lose by TWO votes. Ceredgion and Richmond Park were also terrifically close.
4. The focus on Remainia worked in SW London, in Bath and in OxWAb. It was a disaster in many parts of the West Country.
5. The LibDems vote share was down meaningfully on 2015. Running the election campaign as 20 by-elections worked for keeping seats, but the LDs went backwards on their dreadful 2015 result.
6. Alistair Carmichael got 20% fewer votes than the LD candidates in the Holyrood election got. He still outpolled the SNP almost 2-1. It was never close.
Looking forward to another election in autumn
Might be worth exploring the reasons why that was the case?
The DUP stance does make me chuckle...
Are they aware that Sinn Fein and the IRA have history also?
Who knew?
What is wrong with this picture...
The Tories will cling on to power knowing full well that the next election will result in PM Corbyn......
Corbyn now has momentum, he is no longer toxic, and Labour will unify.....and he obviously loves being leader......
The EU will not compromise on its four freedoms.
I think we've witnessed a democratic miracle. We were offered an agonizing choice between May and Corbyn but providence has intervened.
All the other MSPs who won were list MSPs, when the next on the list moves up to take their place. The Tories in North-East Scotland were so successful that if all their new MPs resign as MSPs they run out of list! The alternative is double-jobbing.
NOW he's making good speeches?
What about her reckless pursuit of Indy?
Not as if parties massage the figures of their own canvassing to get a more accurate picture.
I had two bets at the start, Labour to hold Dagenham and UKIP to get less than 10%.. both came in and I lost a couple of grand somehow!
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/873131220611321856
Congratulations to Corbyn and well done young people, and others, for turning out; very tough times are ahead now (not that things were simple before) and I do think things will get worse before they get better, but let us see Corbyn and May and the rest actually do their jobs and lead this nation. That doesn't mean I expect them to join hands and sing Kumbaya, but the government needs to get smarter and more cautious about what it tries to do, and the opposition, flush with momentum and thoughts of a win in 2022 to look forward to, need to do the same when they challenge what the government is doing as well. Brinkmanship is popular, but everyone needs to be grown ups now.
I hope they are up to it.
And now back to more pleasant matters, the realms of fiction: I'm reading 'Wool' by Hugh Howey - so far it is about a world of scarcity and a hostile outside environment, where the established order is breaking down into chaos as factions battle for control and the very survival of their world is at stake. Seems far fetched
Suspect the answer is "back of a fag packet".
Edit - Or through the Lords.
Corbyn led him in a couple of polls before UKIP went South. I'd also point out the Tories had poll leads of up to 8 percent under Cameron even in the run up to the referendum.
I'd respectfully say that in a 2 horse race IDS would have struggled to do worse than May.
Cameron would have been double figures ahead.
Do people think this would be a good time to admit to my exulting Corbynite relatives that I voted Tory? Granted, they got fewer votes, but they are closer to feeling victorious than the Tories, so might be more inclined to treat the news magnanimously.
Will politics ever get boring again? We've had year after year of weird, barely predictable events, and it looks as though that trend is continuing.
But since she didn't, she can't.