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  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LOL certainty

    Rudd PM soon
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Ave_it said:

    Where's malcolmG?

    He appeared briefly, belched out a single expletive and slunk away.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    kle4 said:

    So Cameron's still the only Tory to win a majority in the last 25 years.

    Hurrah for the posh boys.

    You plebs don't know how lucky you were to have him as PM for 6 years

    I regret participating in his downfall keenly. The Coalition was a fine government.
    I don't. I voted for Brexit because I thought it the right thing to do, not for the impact on Cameron's carer.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    It does not seem like she's planning on calling a GE.
  • JFNJFN Posts: 25
    Chameleon said:

    May is forming a Govt.

    is she though? 15 minutes? Is she resigning?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    Theresa, you've learnt fuck all from last night. Just go for God's sake!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    How have the Tory MPs not already bloody knifed her? Will they all refuse to serve in her cabinet? I can see Boris turning down the call.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    Yougov Poll doesn't look quite so silly now:
    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Oh my god. This sounds like a fucking victory speech. Fuck me sideways.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2017
    For me, the night turned out surprisingly well in betting terms. Despite backing a bunch of Conservative victories in individual constituencies, most of which were losers, and initially targetting a Con Maj of around 100, I ended up with a respectable profit. The constituency tally ended up not too bad since I'd backed some Labour wins (esp. Scotland) at good odds, and I'd also guessed fairly well on the LibDem victories. Overall, much to my surprise I find I'm slightly up on the constituency bets. I'd bet against the LibDem earlyish, which worked out well. Also I had some spread bets on turnout and on the number of female MPs (bought on Star Spreads at 169.5, it should settle at 207) which were useful contributors.

    The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2017
    So - at least I can get some work done now!

    Laters one and all.

    It's been real (ok, unreal).

    edit - this speech suggests someone needs to tell her what's happened! This is quite Gordon Brown-esque.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Chameleon said:

    May is forming a Govt.

    Robotic.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    All about the 5 year term!

    More chance Watford staying up next season!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,015
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    So Cameron's still the only Tory to win a majority in the last 25 years.

    Hurrah for the posh boys.

    You plebs don't know how lucky you were to have him as PM for 6 years

    I regret participating in his downfall keenly. The Coalition was a fine government.
    I don't. I voted for Brexit because I thought it the right thing to do, not for the impact on Cameron's carer.
    What would convince you that it *wasn't* the right thing to do?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,518

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    So May will try and continue, next question is will there be a leadership challenge that she has to fight?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    What a terrible statement. May out now!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,142
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ave_it said:

    Where's malcolmG?

    Campaigning in Catalonia.
    El nap crop should be coming to fruition at just the right time.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    It's unbelievable, she's at the will of the DUP nutters and sounds like she has a crushing majority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220

    jonny83 said:

    If Boris looks set to get it and Ruth threatens a split what do you do?

    Corbyn would look a political titan against johnson.
    Johnson won 2 London elections, Corbyn has yet to win a national election despite his good showing this time
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Maybe she has only seen the predictions on here not the real results! :lol:
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    jonny83 said:

    So May will try and continue, next question is will there be a leadership challenge that she has to fight?

    Hopefully. I can't see there not being a challenge.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    5 years!

    Surely no chance.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
    She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    jonny83 said:

    If Boris looks set to get it and Ruth threatens a split what do you do?

    Ruth will back whoever UK Tories elect even if she pushes for more autonomy for her branch of it which she would likely get
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,143
    Just heard TM speak. Did yesterday not happen?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    She is mad.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    In her head she has......
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Well delivered by TM but sounded delusional to me
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
    She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
    + He also resigned when he'd lost!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,377
    tyson said:

    Tories propped up by these factors:
    waving the unionist card
    playing the toxic card to scare old voters against Corbyn

    ......these two will unravel over the next months and leave the Tories facing electoral disaster at the next GE....

    The Fixed Term Parliament Act is going to leave us with a lame duck Govt for 5 long years making Major's final years seem joyous in comparison.....

    I thought Corbyn was crazy to agree a general election, when the FTPA provided the perfect cover. But the wily old fox was clearly adhering to the old Lenin maxim: 'As soon as their guard is down, we shall smash them with our clenched fist.'
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    I can't see this lasting 5 days, let alone 5 years. I suspect that we'll see quite a few senior ministers turning down offers.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"

    No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Nut job. Get rid of her Tories!!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    Cabinet choices and whether Timothy and Hill survive will be interesting.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    May's stump speech .... again. She more wooden than Thetford Forest.

    Oh lordy "our friends and allies in the DUP ...."

    It's the Conservative & Flat Earth Society Government
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,057
    The arrogance!. Is there no one she wont cuddle up to? The DUP are the Irish version of the BNP
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @janemerrick23: No humility, no acknowledgement of the polling disaster, no "I have listened" to voters. More front than Harrods.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    So Cameron's still the only Tory to win a majority in the last 25 years.

    Hurrah for the posh boys.

    You plebs don't know how lucky you were to have him as PM for 6 years

    I regret participating in his downfall keenly. The Coalition was a fine government.
    I don't. I voted for Brexit because I thought it the right thing to do, not for the impact on Cameron's carer.
    What would convince you that it *wasn't* the right thing to do?
    I suppose if this country turns out to be ungovernable, then it would be better to be governed by others.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    May's in denial.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt: Fair enough to May, she keeps surpassing expectations. Her conference speech was the ugliest I've heard a British prime minister make.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    OK, May needs removing pronto. she doesn't get it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    jonny83 said:

    So May will try and continue, next question is will there be a leadership challenge that she has to fight?

    I wouldn't be surprised if the first comes later this afternoon. I'm not a Tory, but they must be fuming!
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Chameleon said:

    I can't see this lasting 5 days, let alone 5 years. I suspect that we'll see quite a few senior ministers turning down offers.

    Cant see this lasting either.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Theresa, you've learnt fuck all from last night. Just go for God's sake!

    And the sooner the better
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    If Tories care about their party they need to get rid.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,191

    Nut job. Get rid of her Tories!!

    I'll be writing a letter to Graham Brady myself at this rate.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 819
    Time to break out the downfall memes
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,138
    MikeL said:

    5 years!

    Surely no chance.

    She has to say that. I doubt she will last beyond April 2019.

    BBC commentator said her speech was brave and impressive
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AgnesCPoirier: May in front of Downing Street : Business as usual. Nothing has happened in May land it seems. Not a word for angry voters. Wow
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Really? She's going to make them humiliate her by forcing the challenge?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    ?? - She's lost the plot
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Scott_P said:

    That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"

    No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.

    She's in denial. She must be.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,727
    Graham Brady's postman is going to get a hernia in the next few days
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    HYUFD said:



    The same applies in reverse to the Tories, 2 party politics means big swings and seat gains in either direction but as long as that 44% stays blue so Corbyn cannot win

    That 44% ain't staying blue. There's nothing like a humiliating loss of authority to deter supporters.. They will simply melt away once they see the empress has no clothes. It's no tautology to state that people back winners.

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    A lot of people who held their noses and voted Tory are going to be repelled by the PM putting her appendages into a vice owned by the DUP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
    She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
    + He also resigned when he'd lost!
    Only days later and after 29% not 44%
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Makes Gordo look sane and genial by comparison.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    She's doubling down on a strategy that lost her her majority.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Maybe she is taking a leaf out of Corbynd book.

    Will Boris accept a job. If not it's game over.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    The longer that this is drawn out the uglier this is going to get for Con.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    edited June 2017
    If big beasts want to join her cabinet and she gives assurances she would govern more say in the style of Cameron then she might be able to hang on for a while.

    If people like Boris, Davis, Gove etc won't be in her cabinet then she will fall quickly.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    **** off May

    I say that as a deepest tory
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"

    No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.

    She's in denial. She must be.
    Boris and Phil need to put her back in her box
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    JackW said:

    May's stump speech .... again. She more wooden than Thetford Forest.

    Oh lordy "our friends and allies in the DUP ...."

    It's the Conservative & Flat Earth Society Government

    Mega LOL

    now I must be off.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The tories really don't like a loser by comments on here ;-)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313

    Graham Brady's postman is going to get a hernia in the next few days

    That would be unwise. She needs to stay for a few months before quitting in late summer.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    It could last a while because DUP will want it to last - very unlikely they'll get another situation like this again for a very long time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Chameleon said:

    She's doubling down on a strategy that lost her her majority.

    Her Downing Street statements resemble operatic mad scenes.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    What the hell was that? She's going to destroy her party and, via Corbyn, the country.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    HYUFD said:

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
    She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
    + He also resigned when he'd lost!
    Only days later and after 29% not 44%
    If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Jonathan said:

    Maybe she is taking a leaf out of Corbynd book.

    Will Boris accept a job. If not it's game over.

    He's already eyeing up the leadership. No way is he taking a cabinet seat.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    I can only conclude that May has a large position on the Next PM market. She needs to stay long enough for Betfair to settle it as a winner.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,138
    SeanT said:

    Thought: there is now, surely, a large majority of MPs in the Commons who favor Soft Brexit. If they caucus, they can deliver it. TMay will have to yield or she'll be paralyzed and forced into an election she will probably lose.

    Soft Brexit is nailed on
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    She just basically told the electorate they are wrong. Tory annihilation if they don't axe her
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    MikeL said:

    It could last a while because DUP will want it to last - very unlikely they'll get another situation like this again for a very long time.

    The risk is that Con MPs won't support her.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    When will the posters with Theresa all dressed in orange peeping out of Arlene's pocket be ready?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    Polruan said:

    When will the posters with Theresa all dressed in orange peeping out of Arlene's pocket be ready?

    Have you seen the cartoon Osborn just posted? lol
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Polruan said:

    When will the posters with Theresa all dressed in orange peeping out of Arlene's pocket be ready?

    I'm surprised they're not on twitter already.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
    She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
    + He also resigned when he'd lost!
    Only days later and after 29% not 44%
    If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
    She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.

    No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.

    Well I didn't, but it looks like the members of the Labour Party did.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,191

    For me, the night turned out surprisingly well in betting terms. Despite backing a bunch of Conservative victories in individual constituencies, most of which were losers, and initially targetting a Con Maj of around 100, I ended up with a respectable profit. The constituency tally ended up not too bad since I'd backed some Labour wins (esp. Scotland) at good odds, and I'd also guessed fairly well on the LibDem victories. Overall, much to my surprise I find I'm slightly up on the constituency bets. I'd bet against the LibDem earlyish, which worked out well. Also I had some spread bets on turnout and on the number of female MPs (bought on Star Spreads at 169.5, it should settle at 207) which were useful contributors.

    The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).

    Well done. Wise words on probability.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Quite the contrast with the last PM post defeat, Meglomaniac fool.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
    She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
    + He also resigned when he'd lost!
    Only days later and after 29% not 44%
    If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
    She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
    No way can she stay. She got told to f off by the electorate.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Chameleon said:

    MikeL said:

    It could last a while because DUP will want it to last - very unlikely they'll get another situation like this again for a very long time.

    The risk is that Con MPs won't support her.
    Any Con MP with a small majority and Labour at their heels in a Remain-y seat should be working out how to ditch TM and the DUP as soon as possible.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    Theresa May is in absolute la-la land...

    The woman is nits!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I thought it would be hard for Tezza to go down further in my estimation.

    I was wrong
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.

    No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.

    Well I didn't, but it looks like the members of the Labour Party did.
    Fair point.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267

    She just basically told the electorate they are wrong. Tory annihilation if they don't axe her


    Agreed. She needs to be gone urgently.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    edited June 2017
    I think she might hang on for a while anyway.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Some observations on the politics:

    - This is very much Theresa May's disaster, obviously, but in vote-count terms she did very well; it was Corbyn's success in unifying multiple strands of the non-Tory vote which was the story of the night.

    - With hindsight, there was one very good indicator of Corbyn's possible appeal from across the Channel. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is very like Corbyn in being a far-left relic whom everyone thought was unelectable and whose programe was a hilarious fantasy. Yet he did much better than anyone had initially expected. To a lesser extent the same is true of Bernie Sanders, although he's not as bonkers as Corbyn or Mélenchon.

    - The left in general, and the Labour Party in particular, are likely to draw the wrong conclusion from the result, thinking that they can succeed on a far-left platform with 'one more push'. But this push only got as far as it did because literally no-one (including Labour themselves) took it seriously. If the Labour manifesto and front-bench had been assessed as a possible government-in-waiting, they'd have done much less well.

    - I note that people who a few weeks ago were writing off Labour are now writing off the prospects for the Tories over the next few years. Always a mistake: 1992 is the best example of a similar error (Labour was thought sure to win before the election, and then considered terminally damaged afterwards).

    - I have no idea what will happen next, politics once again seems to be moving faster than ever. Lord only knows how we can negotiate Brexit from this position; it's hard to see Theresa May being the person to do it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I was talking to some Americans about our new government's allies and they said, "WTF!". :astonished:

    I was with the CEO of a friend of mine's company. They are the second or third largest employer in Northern Ireland and were mildly amused...

    (Not DUPers though - the family back that breakaway unionist party a few years back - was it McAlistair or someone?)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    midwinter said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority

    Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
    She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
    + He also resigned when he'd lost!
    Only days later and after 29% not 44%
    If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
    She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
    No way can she stay. She got told to f off by the electorate.
    She won most votes and seats, in the short term at least she stays
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Just seen that speech.

    TMay an absolute disgrace.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Theresa, you've learnt fuck all from last night. Just go for God's sake!

    You've just quoted JC's opening statement at the first PMQ's
This discussion has been closed.