Impeccable logic. May has seats with wafer thin majorities like Richmond which leave her desperately unsafe. Nothing like the rock solid majorities the SNP got in places like Fife North East and Perth and North Perthshire.
It seems that the list of wafer thing majorities is overflowing this timedcompared to last.
Has anyone got a consolidated spreadsheet of results to compare to 2015?
For me, the night turned out surprisingly well in betting terms. Despite backing a bunch of Conservative victories in individual constituencies, most of which were losers, and initially targetting a Con Maj of around 100, I ended up with a respectable profit. The constituency tally ended up not too bad since I'd backed some Labour wins (esp. Scotland) at good odds, and I'd also guessed fairly well on the LibDem victories. Overall, much to my surprise I find I'm slightly up on the constituency bets. I'd bet against the LibDem earlyish, which worked out well. Also I had some spread bets on turnout and on the number of female MPs (bought on Star Spreads at 169.5, it should settle at 207) which were useful contributors.
The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
Tories propped up by these factors: waving the unionist card playing the toxic card to scare old voters against Corbyn
......these two will unravel over the next months and leave the Tories facing electoral disaster at the next GE....
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is going to leave us with a lame duck Govt for 5 long years making Major's final years seem joyous in comparison.....
I thought Corbyn was crazy to agree a general election, when the FTPA provided the perfect cover. But the wily old fox was clearly adhering to the old Lenin maxim: 'As soon as their guard is down, we shall smash them with our clenched fist.'
That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
The same applies in reverse to the Tories, 2 party politics means big swings and seat gains in either direction but as long as that 44% stays blue so Corbyn cannot win
That 44% ain't staying blue. There's nothing like a humiliating loss of authority to deter supporters.. They will simply melt away once they see the empress has no clothes. It's no tautology to state that people back winners.
If big beasts want to join her cabinet and she gives assurances she would govern more say in the style of Cameron then she might be able to hang on for a while.
If people like Boris, Davis, Gove etc won't be in her cabinet then she will fall quickly.
That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
Thought: there is now, surely, a large majority of MPs in the Commons who favor Soft Brexit. If they caucus, they can deliver it. TMay will have to yield or she'll be paralyzed and forced into an election she will probably lose.
Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority
Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
+ He also resigned when he'd lost!
Only days later and after 29% not 44%
If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
For me, the night turned out surprisingly well in betting terms. Despite backing a bunch of Conservative victories in individual constituencies, most of which were losers, and initially targetting a Con Maj of around 100, I ended up with a respectable profit. The constituency tally ended up not too bad since I'd backed some Labour wins (esp. Scotland) at good odds, and I'd also guessed fairly well on the LibDem victories. Overall, much to my surprise I find I'm slightly up on the constituency bets. I'd bet against the LibDem earlyish, which worked out well. Also I had some spread bets on turnout and on the number of female MPs (bought on Star Spreads at 169.5, it should settle at 207) which were useful contributors.
The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority
Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
+ He also resigned when he'd lost!
Only days later and after 29% not 44%
If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
No way can she stay. She got told to f off by the electorate.
The Conservatives have lost me as a voter. Boris isn't the person to get me back on board, and I doubt he'd appeal to others I know in the same situation.
This is true, but your kind of vote is not the only vote the Conservatives needed to win. The Tory strategy seemed to be highly dependent on mopping up Kipper support in seats where 2015 UKIP + CON exceeded sitting Labour, and Boris was surely one of their best available tools for that, which is why it strikes me as even odder he was so rarely deployed.
Post-referendum but before Brexit is finalised I think it's very hard for anyone to build a winning coalition - both Labour and Tories are dependent on voters who opted for Leave, as well as voters who went Remain! Trying to keep that balance is very tricky, which I suspect is why this didn't turn into a Brexit Election after all - easier to campaign on other issues, because if you make a firm commitment to one side or another it eats into one component of your base. The Tories made firmer commitments to Brexit than Labour did, and this seems to have hurt them badly in Southern Remainia.
Yes, the Tories would also have at least secured a majority if they'd appealed to voters like you too and not lost seats in the South as a result. They should probably have deployed some of the social liberal, Cameroon heavy hitters rather than focus entirely TMay's rather old-fashioned looking brand (personality cult even), and sold you big juicy retail offer on policy. Which they didn't seem to have come up with. If they could have launched a two-pronged attack on people like you and separately on the ex-kippers, that is where they could have pulled a landslide from. I think it's at least possible they could have pulled it off given the 20% opinion poll leads they had at one stage - perhaps you could have forgiven the existence of Boris if he was selling something you weren't deeply opposed to (more NHS cash) to people-who-are-not-like-you, while at the same someone else you quite liked was selling stuff you actively liked to people-who-are-like-you.
Comments
Has anyone got a consolidated spreadsheet of results to compare to 2015?
waving the unionist card
playing the toxic card to scare old voters against Corbyn
......these two will unravel over the next months and leave the Tories facing electoral disaster at the next GE....
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is going to leave us with a lame duck Govt for 5 long years making Major's final years seem joyous in comparison.....
Rudd PM soon
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
Laters one and all.
It's been real (ok, unreal).
edit - this speech suggests someone needs to tell her what's happened! This is quite Gordon Brown-esque.
More chance Watford staying up next season!
Surely no chance.
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
Oh lordy "our friends and allies in the DUP ...."
It's the Conservative & Flat Earth Society Government
BBC commentator said her speech was brave and impressive
Will Boris accept a job. If not it's game over.
If people like Boris, Davis, Gove etc won't be in her cabinet then she will fall quickly.
I say that as a deepest tory
now I must be off.
The woman is nits!
Post-referendum but before Brexit is finalised I think it's very hard for anyone to build a winning coalition - both Labour and Tories are dependent on voters who opted for Leave, as well as voters who went Remain! Trying to keep that balance is very tricky, which I suspect is why this didn't turn into a Brexit Election after all - easier to campaign on other issues, because if you make a firm commitment to one side or another it eats into one component of your base. The Tories made firmer commitments to Brexit than Labour did, and this seems to have hurt them badly in Southern Remainia.
Yes, the Tories would also have at least secured a majority if they'd appealed to voters like you too and not lost seats in the South as a result. They should probably have deployed some of the social liberal, Cameroon heavy hitters rather than focus entirely TMay's rather old-fashioned looking brand (personality cult even), and sold you big juicy retail offer on policy. Which they didn't seem to have come up with. If they could have launched a two-pronged attack on people like you and separately on the ex-kippers, that is where they could have pulled a landslide from. I think it's at least possible they could have pulled it off given the 20% opinion poll leads they had at one stage - perhaps you could have forgiven the existence of Boris if he was selling something you weren't deeply opposed to (more NHS cash) to people-who-are-not-like-you, while at the same someone else you quite liked was selling stuff you actively liked to people-who-are-like-you.
I was wrong
Agreed. She needs to be gone urgently.