"The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
"
Well done, Richard, and you are absolutely right. What made last night a bad night betting wise was the belief that the Conservative majority was a guaranteed 20% return in four or five hours and compounding that my not hedging enough. How wrong I was, although I was lucky with SCON.
The irony of it was that I was going to put that large sum on SCON above 8.5 as I had been told Mundell was very bullish on seat numbers but I decided at the last minute that the Conservative majority bet was the safer option
Still, you learn and move on. I didn't lose more than I can absorb well, I am happy with my life and my wonderful parents are still going strong.
I am not using them any more though as a guide to political bets
In fairness to Theresa May (someone has to be): even though I'm as furious with her as every other Conservative, and I don't see how she can remain in place, she can't resign until there's some succession plan in place. There's no time for a full-blown leadership contest with the Brexit clock ticking.
In fairness to Theresa May (someone has to be): even though I'm as furious with her as every other Conservative, and I don't see how she can remain in place, she can't resign until there's some succession plan in place. There's no time for a full-blown leadership contest with the Brexit clock ticking.
We need the bloodletting and we need the next leader to get the endorsement of the membership. The next leader needs to have a mandate of some kind. Essentially we need to run a soft Brexit vs hard Brexit race with one candidate from each side. I'd expect the soft Brexit side to win after today's shock and that endorsement will allow the next PM to keep the hard Brexit side on a short leash.
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
Any thoughts on a Labour reshuffle? Surely now is the time to reunite the party, which has been incredibly disciplined in the campaign. Give centrists big jobs – Yvette to home secretary, Chuka to foreign secretary etc?
How can he reward the people who wrote him off and punish those who stuck by him?
Because Jeremy is obviously a good man who doesn't bear grudges
In fairness to Theresa May (someone has to be): even though I'm as furious with her as every other Conservative, and I don't see how she can remain in place, she can't resign until there's some succession plan in place. There's no time for a full-blown leadership contest with the Brexit clock ticking.
I agree,can't she stand down as tory leader and tories have a leadership contest while she remains PM ?
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
Who knows. I literally have no idea how on earth he got 40% of the vote.
My only theory is that the message from Labour candidates that there was no chance he would be PM, so you can vote for me and still have a decent, hard working Labour MP, must have worked in spades.
Like Mr Meeks, I spent the campaign painstakingly studying the available evidence, making a series of what seemed like logical assumptions, and getting practically all of them wrong. Having called the Liberal Democrat seat count almost exactly right is not really adequate compensation...
In the spirit of trying to get to grips with the new dispensation, I would like to tell a little story. I arrived at work this morning, and my colleagues and I had a bit of a chinwag about a result that most of us didn't see coming. Then, in walks the Sage, who correctly predicted Brexit, and Trump, and suggested that Corbyn would become Prime Minister today - an outcome that was, in the final analysis, perhaps averted by only half-a-dozen Tory holds.
So, I asked the Sage what brilliant analysis had led him to make his prediction. The reply?
"No enthusiasm."
I spent weeks trying to work out the minutiae of this election and got it catastrophically wrong. He summed the entire situation up in two words. And it looks like that explains both why he was almost right, but why he didn't quite make it, either.
There was enthusiasm for Corbyn. There wasn't for May. And yet... there was enthusiasm for Ruth Davidson. And there's no enthusiasm at all, to put it mildly, amongst the new Ten Most Important Voters in the Nation - the DUP MPs - for Corbyn. And that's that.
I'm just relieved that we've avoided (for the moment, because only a fool would now discount the future possibility of Prime Minister Corbyn,) an outbreak of socialist twattery. First and foremost, in all honestly, because we're trying to shift my husband's flat in London right now and we really need to bank the profit from it for our future - so a general economic panic was the last thing on Earth we needed. At least if there is going to be a Far Left Labour Government further down the line, we ought by then to have the resources to be better able to cope with the consequences.
Two more observations. Firstly, this whole election period has been very stressful, and probably not altogether good for my constitution. I could certainly do with a (possibly permanent) break from obsessing about politics. That, and the fact that my understanding (if I ever had any to begin with) of the electorate appears to have evaporated, means that I feel that I really have nothing left to offer here.
And secondly, at least Smug Git Salmond bought it. Which is nice.
Thought: there is now, surely, a large majority of MPs in the Commons who favor Soft Brexit. If they caucus, they can deliver it. TMay will have to yield or she'll be paralyzed and forced into an election she will probably lose.
Soft Brexit is nailed on
It really isn't. Soft Brexit requires painful compromise and a strong government. Unless you think Labour and the Conservatives will form a coalition it cannot happen.
It will be the compromise, indeed probably the only compromise, that will get through the HOC and HOL
Realistically whatever compromise the government makes now will get through the HOC and HOL.
The corollary of not believing in "no deal is better than a bad deal" is that "a bad deal is better than no deal". The nature of Article 50 is that the clock is ticking and we exit automatically without a deal if the clock is waited out.
If the government comes back with what other parties regard to be a bad deal and told its either this or no deal then what are they supposed to do? They must surely endorse the bad deal through gritted teeth.
@AgnesCPoirier: May in front of Downing Street : Business as usual. Nothing has happened in May land it seems. Not a word for angry voters. Wow
I didn't see her constituency speech but in this speech she failed to thank all those who fought for her on the hustings the last couple of months and even more seriously those who did come out and vote for Conservative candidates yesterday.
The Conservative Party will be unable to move forward with Theresa as leader. Who the heck could lead ? Someone not holding cabinet office or new to parliament during Cameron and probably May as well.
Wouldn't be my choice but I get the impression Rory Stewart ticks boxes with a lot of voters - I would prefer Julian from Skipton myself.
AND we must never ever run another campaign based upon one person.
2016 Scotland Election SNP 48.8% of seats Sturgeon is re-elected as First Minister and unopposed as such
2017 UK General Election Tories 49.0% of seats May is "rejected" according to some here and must go. Go figure.
Incidentally if you look at Great Britain seats like we look at Great Britain opinion polls: Tories 50.5% of seats.
The party that won a majority of Great Britain is working with the party that won a majority of Northern Ireland.
It's like saying John Major should have resigned in 1992, after the Conservative lead was cut by 80%.
No it's not. It's one thing falling back in an election called because you've reached the end of the term. It's quite a different matter falling back in an election called specifically in order to get a large mandate for your approach to a very difficult negotiation.
In fairness to Theresa May (someone has to be): even though I'm as furious with her as every other Conservative, and I don't see how she can remain in place, she can't resign until there's some succession plan in place. There's no time for a full-blown leadership contest with the Brexit clock ticking.
She deserves to go, but the Realpolitik says she must stay. It must be a horrible position to be in, to have to remain a flop in full public view for the foreseeable future. No retreat to a comfortable obscurity.
It could last a while because DUP will want it to last - very unlikely they'll get another situation like this again for a very long time.
It's certainly one good way to keep NI at the front of the Brexit negotiations, knowing that a vote of confidence could be lost if the DUP won't back the Tories. Apparently one plan in the DUP manifesto was to turn NI into an economic free zone, with corporation tax set at 12.5% to match the Republic. That, along with some infrastructure spending across the Irish Sea is probably a good starting point for the Queen's Speech.
Whoever follows May (assuming it's not Corbyn) will have to follow the Cameron Direct playbook and meet voters, anywhere, anytime.
That was one of the best ideas Cameron had. He regularly took difficult questions from people who weren't all Tory party faithful.
What I find slightly odd is this notation in the past couple of GE that parties don't risk their leader doing on the soap box unless they really have to, because they might get a ranty nutter ambush them.
The thing I remember Cameron getting that from the Lib Dem guy with the disabled kid and Cameron went up in my estimations not down because of it.
I seemed to remember people saying Farron did well when he got some ranty Brexit supporter in this campaign.
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
Who knows. I literally have no idea how on earth he got 40% of the vote.
My only theory is that the message from Labour candidates that there was no chance he would be PM, so you can vote for me and still have a decent, hard working Labour MP, must have worked in spades.
A lot of Labour supporters, like Charles Clarke, were saying they didn't want Jeremy Corbyn as PM but were voting Labour anyway to shore up the party's vote for future elections.
- This is very much Theresa May's disaster, obviously, but in vote-count terms she did very well; it was Corbyn's success in unifying multiple strands of the non-Tory vote which was the story of the night.
- With hindsight, there was one very good indicator of Corbyn's possible appeal from across the Channel. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is very like Corbyn in being a far-left relic whom everyone thought was unelectable and whose programe was a hilarious fantasy. Yet he did much better than anyone had initially expected. To a lesser extent the same is true of Bernie Sanders, although he's not as bonkers as Corbyn or Mélenchon.
- The left in general, and the Labour Party in particular, are likely to draw the wrong conclusion from the result, thinking that they can succeed on a far-left platform with 'one more push'. But this push only got as far as it did because literally no-one (including Labour themselves) took it seriously. If the Labour manifesto and front-bench had been assessed as a possible government-in-waiting, they'd have done much less well.
- I note that people who a few weeks ago were writing off Labour are now writing off the prospects for the Tories over the next few years. Always a mistake: 1992 is the best example of a similar error (Labour was thought sure to win before the election, and then considered terminally damaged afterwards).
- I have no idea what will happen next, politics once again seems to be moving faster than ever. Lord only knows how we can negotiate Brexit from this position; it's hard to see Theresa May being the person to do it.
The Conservatives have serious questions to answer, not just May. The core is hollow.
The core is hollow because of her disaster policies. She's alienated all of our core voters. Business groups, older voters and university educated higher earners are all alienated from the party, most turned out to vote against Corbyn rather than for the party. That saved us last night, but we can get them back on board by dumping her and her shit policies
Conservativism is tired.
Is the problem not May isn't much of a conservative ?
Have some money on the "Next Government" market on Betfair. There are two options that may possibly describe the arrangement for the next Govt: "Con Minority" (1.18) and "Any Other" (6.52). Any idea if a deal with the DUP counts as "Any Other"?
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
Splendid speech by Theresa May, 5 more years, or until the men in grey suits come knocking.
or white coats judging by the speech.
Nah, it’s a holding pattern speech only imho, there’ll be a transitional period until someone suitable is found to replace her, then she’ll bow out. I give her until the summer recess.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Blah blah blah. Still pushing that line? The press tried selling that shit, and there were no buyers. The clear and present danger to most people is Tory neoclassical economic ideology. This comment is pure cerebral flatulence, which is about to be left behind, along with its proponents.
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
- This is very much Theresa May's disaster, obviously, but in vote-count terms she did very well; it was Corbyn's success in unifying multiple strands of the non-Tory vote which was the story of the night.
- With hindsight, there was one very good indicator of Corbyn's possible appeal from across the Channel. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is very like Corbyn in being a far-left relic whom everyone thought was unelectable and whose programe was a hilarious fantasy. Yet he did much better than anyone had initially expected. To a lesser extent the same is true of Bernie Sanders, although he's not as bonkers as Corbyn or Mélenchon.
- The left in general, and the Labour Party in particular, are likely to draw the wrong conclusion from the result, thinking that they can succeed on a far-left platform with 'one more push'. But this push only got as far as it did because literally no-one (including Labour themselves) took it seriously. If the Labour manifesto and front-bench had been assessed as a possible government-in-waiting, they'd have done much less well.
- I note that people who a few weeks ago were writing off Labour are now writing off the prospects for the Tories over the next few years. Always a mistake: 1992 is the best example of a similar error (Labour was thought sure to win before the election, and then considered terminally damaged afterwards).
- I have no idea what will happen next, politics once again seems to be moving faster than ever. Lord only knows how we can negotiate Brexit from this position; it's hard to see Theresa May being the person to do it.
The Conservatives have serious questions to answer, not just May. The core is hollow.
The core is hollow because of her disaster policies. She's alienated all of our core voters. Business groups, older voters and university educated higher earners are all alienated from the party, most turned out to vote against Corbyn rather than for the party. That saved us last night, but we can get them back on board by dumping her and her shit policies
Conservativism is tired.
Is the problem not May isn't much of a conservative ?
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Indeed.
I am happy with the current outcome, but I do not think it will last 6 months. Having said that, the Labour minority govt in the 70s (Lib/Lab Pact etc) did manage 5 years although they remain as a truly dreadful and depressing time in my recollection.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Blah blah blah. Still pushing that line? The press tried selling that shit, and there were no buyers. The clear and present danger to most people is Tory neoclassical economic ideology. This comment is pure cerebral flatulence, which is about to be left behind, along with its proponents.
Have some money on the "Next Government" market on Betfair. There are two options that may possibly describe the arrangement for the next Govt: "Con Minority" (1.18) and "Any Other" (6.52). Any idea if a deal with the DUP counts as "Any Other"?
It would need to be a coalition as defined in the market rules. I found then a little vague, so I greened out on both to avoid a nasty surprise.
Any thoughts on a Labour reshuffle? Surely now is the time to reunite the party, which has been incredibly disciplined in the campaign. Give centrists big jobs – Yvette to home secretary, Chuka to foreign secretary etc?
As I said on the last thread (too sleepy to notice the new thread), Corbyn doesn't do revenge and if someone insults him, demands his resignation, organises a plot, whatever, he just shrugs and carries on putting his case. But he's very loyal to people who stick by him, so a massacre of the loyalists to bring back Chuka et al is not going to happen. What I expect is a few changes with relatively high profiles - for example, I'd like to see Yvette as Shadow Home Secretary.
"The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
"
Lots of models last night had seat predictions that were rated as 95% or 99% certainties going awry.
A good thread Alastair. I lost a fair bit on last night's result - in my defence I left my initial positions unchanged after I had been selected for Don Valley as I simply hadn't the time to follow the national campaign. On which note...
The afternoon after the night before isn't the best time to pronounce one's verdict - though that is of course what our system demands of our media and elected politicians. Since I am neither, I will demur a little. The exit poll came as a surprise but I had rationalised how it must have happened even before I set off for my count.
Here in Don Valley I found a lot of swing from the Labour areas, just as reported from canvassers from both sides throughout the campaign. I was unsurprised to get a chunky swing in my favour (4.8%) but it's clear we never had the whole picture. Judging by other results (see e.g. Rother Valley), I'm not certain that the absence of a UKIP candidate helped - though the endorsement of their specific candidate from 2015 was useful.
As a party we now have to reflect on the result and yet act responsibly in the national interest. I respect the increased vote for Labour, and I am particularly glad to see the increase in youth turnout even though it clearly didn't help me. But I am determined that we should never allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister as I truly believe that would be a stain on our nation's history. Quite how long this Parliament will last remains to be seen.
On a personal note, many thanks for all the messages of support (and donations!) on here, including many from across the partisan divide. This site remains by far the best one on the internet for genuine cross-party dialogue, and huge thanks to OGH, rcs1000 and TSE (amongst others) for that.
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
Depends how bad May gets.
I'd be much more concerned about the return of anti-Tory tactical voting than absolute vote numbers.
And he/Labour has so much space to his right before he even reaches the centre, that he can easily suck votes from the Tory left (in the face of the alliance with the DUP and Brexit).
A good thread Alastair. I lost a fair bit on last night's result - in my defence I left my initial positions unchanged after I had been selected for Don Valley as I simply hadn't the time to follow the national campaign. On which note...
The afternoon after the night before isn't the best time to pronounce one's verdict - though that is of course what our system demands of our media and elected politicians. Since I am neither, I will demur a little. The exit poll came as a surprise but I had rationalised how it must have happened even before I set off for my count.
Here in Don Valley I found a lot of swing from the Labour areas, just as reported from canvassers from both sides throughout the campaign. I was unsurprised to get a chunky swing in my favour (4.8%) but it's clear we never had the whole picture. Judging by other results (see e.g. Rother Valley), I'm not certain that the absence of a UKIP candidate helped - though the endorsement of their specific candidate from 2015 was useful.
As a party we now have to reflect on the result and yet act responsibly in the national interest. I respect the increased vote for Labour, and I am particularly glad to see the increase in youth turnout even though it clearly didn't help me. But I am determined that we should never allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister as I truly believe that would be a stain on our nation's history. Quite how long this Parliament will last remains to be seen.
On a personal note, many thanks for all the messages of support (and donations!) on here, including many from across the partisan divide. This site remains by far the best one on the internet for genuine cross-party dialogue, and huge thanks to OGH, rcs1000 and TSE (amongst others) for that.
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
No!
If May won't resign Jezza could win a landslide when the Tories are next dragged kicking and screaming to the polls.
The problem Corbyn has is that just getting out the kids was not enough to get him to this point. He needed to have the Tory balls up with regard to social care to persuade older voters not to turn out as well. If (and I accept it is a big if) the Tories can actually run a campaign next time that does not alienate their core vote so much then Corbyn is going to find this really was peak momentum.
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
Depends how bad May gets.
I'd be much more concerned about the return of anti-Tory tactical voting than absolute vote numbers.
That is the problem with running with what's perceived to be a right wing agenda (although how anyone could tell quite what it was is beyond me). On the plus side for the Tories it did seem to be quite localised.
The same applies in reverse to the Tories, 2 party politics means big swings and seat gains in either direction but as long as that 44% stays blue so Corbyn cannot win
That 44% ain't staying blue. There's nothing like a humiliating loss of authority to deter supporters.. They will simply melt away once they see the empress has no clothes. It's no tautology to state that people back winners.
She needs to go. For sure. But I think she should not do it immediately. The Tories will need a bit of time to prepare. And seek out engaging candidates. I think JohnO is right. In a few weeks.
I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
I have a bet, David Davis as next conservative leader that I took out last October, 100/1. I did tip it on here. Managed to put on£8.99 with Paddy power, maximum bet allowed.
Not sure when this conservative leadership is going to change hands so not going to tie up money laying him to try and trade out the bet.
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
Quite possibly they can. Stephen Harper and Manuel Rajoy and Angela Merkel have all governed without majorities, because no viable coalition could be constructed against them.
A Labour government could only rely on the certain backing of 39 non-Labour MP's (Sylvia Hermon won't support Corbyn).
Do we think Corbyn probably maximised his vote at this election? (Overall, not Islington).
Who knows. I literally have no idea how on earth he got 40% of the vote.
My only theory is that the message from Labour candidates that there was no chance he would be PM, so you can vote for me and still have a decent, hard working Labour MP, must have worked in spades.
No. Voters liked him and his policies. Simple as that.
People on here would be well served to stop contorting simple realities to fit their evidently bogus political preconceptions. It's more profitable to acknowledge what is starting you in the face.
If it wasn't for the fact the alternative was Corbyn, I'd recommend throwing in the towel now and letting a Labour minority try and sort this out.
But, seeing as Corbyn represents a clear and present danger to the UK, anything or anyone that keeps him out of office is doing a national service.
Every day she stays in situ makes Corbyn PM more likely.
Realistically is there any way that isn't going to happen now? The Tories aren't going to be able to get their shit together between now and the next election surely?
How did Corbyn win? He got fewer seats, fewer votes and will not be forming the Government. Not to take anything away from his performance but he certainly didn't win anything under any of the three main metrics by which an election is normally judged.
Look how similar the numbers are to 2010. Then it was Gordo who was thought mad for wanting to stay on with only 8 seats less than Corbyn while Cameron was thought to be entitled the keys to No10 w a dozen fewer seats than May has now!
No, it's about the numbers. There was no realistic combination of parties to get Gordon Brown to 326 seats from second place. There is to get May (and then a successor) there from first place.
Splendid speech by Theresa May, 5 more years, or until the men in grey suits come knocking.
or white coats judging by the speech.
Nah, it’s a holding pattern speech only imho, there’ll be a transitional period until someone suitable is found to replace her, then she’ll bow out. I give her until the summer recess.
She dare not resign unless she is certain that her successor wins Maidenhead. If the Tories lost Mainhead and Thanet South then half their "majority" (aka safety buffer) would be gone.
I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
Whilst I don't disagree on the main sentiment, changing leader won't alter the fact that we're dependent on the DUP.
The same applies in reverse to the Tories, 2 party politics means big swings and seat gains in either direction but as long as that 44% stays blue so Corbyn cannot win
That 44% ain't staying blue. There's nothing like a humiliating loss of authority to deter supporters.. They will simply melt away once they see the empress has no clothes. It's no tautology to state that people back winners.
She needs to go. For sure. But I think she should not do it immediately. The Tories will need a bit of time to prepare. And seek out engaging candidates. I think JohnO is right. In a few weeks.
I rarely disagree with Lord JohnO of Hersham but here I do.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
Agree. Earlier I was of the opinion that she might usefully limp on a while. But that speech tells me she is moron. Get rid.
Comments
Well done, Richard, and you are absolutely right. What made last night a bad night betting wise was the belief that the Conservative majority was a guaranteed 20% return in four or five hours and compounding that my not hedging enough. How wrong I was, although I was lucky with SCON.
The irony of it was that I was going to put that large sum on SCON above 8.5 as I had been told Mundell was very bullish on seat numbers but I decided at the last minute that the Conservative majority bet was the safer option
Still, you learn and move on. I didn't lose more than I can absorb well, I am happy with my life and my wonderful parents are still going strong.
I am not using them any more though as a guide to political bets
No surprises that he survived
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
Is it all about the big Mo?
My only theory is that the message from Labour candidates that there was no chance he would be PM, so you can vote for me and still have a decent, hard working Labour MP, must have worked in spades.
Like Mr Meeks, I spent the campaign painstakingly studying the available evidence, making a series of what seemed like logical assumptions, and getting practically all of them wrong. Having called the Liberal Democrat seat count almost exactly right is not really adequate compensation...
In the spirit of trying to get to grips with the new dispensation, I would like to tell a little story. I arrived at work this morning, and my colleagues and I had a bit of a chinwag about a result that most of us didn't see coming. Then, in walks the Sage, who correctly predicted Brexit, and Trump, and suggested that Corbyn would become Prime Minister today - an outcome that was, in the final analysis, perhaps averted by only half-a-dozen Tory holds.
So, I asked the Sage what brilliant analysis had led him to make his prediction. The reply?
"No enthusiasm."
I spent weeks trying to work out the minutiae of this election and got it catastrophically wrong. He summed the entire situation up in two words. And it looks like that explains both why he was almost right, but why he didn't quite make it, either.
There was enthusiasm for Corbyn. There wasn't for May. And yet... there was enthusiasm for Ruth Davidson. And there's no enthusiasm at all, to put it mildly, amongst the new Ten Most Important Voters in the Nation - the DUP MPs - for Corbyn. And that's that.
I'm just relieved that we've avoided (for the moment, because only a fool would now discount the future possibility of Prime Minister Corbyn,) an outbreak of socialist twattery. First and foremost, in all honestly, because we're trying to shift my husband's flat in London right now and we really need to bank the profit from it for our future - so a general economic panic was the last thing on Earth we needed. At least if there is going to be a Far Left Labour Government further down the line, we ought by then to have the resources to be better able to cope with the consequences.
Two more observations. Firstly, this whole election period has been very stressful, and probably not altogether good for my constitution. I could certainly do with a (possibly permanent) break from obsessing about politics. That, and the fact that my understanding (if I ever had any to begin with) of the electorate appears to have evaporated, means that I feel that I really have nothing left to offer here.
And secondly, at least Smug Git Salmond bought it. Which is nice.
That's all folks!
The corollary of not believing in "no deal is better than a bad deal" is that "a bad deal is better than no deal". The nature of Article 50 is that the clock is ticking and we exit automatically without a deal if the clock is waited out.
If the government comes back with what other parties regard to be a bad deal and told its either this or no deal then what are they supposed to do? They must surely endorse the bad deal through gritted teeth.
There is zero appetite in the country for:
- a third Prime Minister in 12 months;
- another election
Brenda in Bristol said it best. Another one? No, time to just get on with it now.
I'd be much more concerned about the return of anti-Tory tactical voting than absolute vote numbers.
ANYONE else.
Anyone.
What I find slightly odd is this notation in the past couple of GE that parties don't risk their leader doing on the soap box unless they really have to, because they might get a ranty nutter ambush them.
The thing I remember Cameron getting that from the Lib Dem guy with the disabled kid and Cameron went up in my estimations not down because of it.
I seemed to remember people saying Farron did well when he got some ranty Brexit supporter in this campaign.
https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/873152322775511042
Remind me what movie is this? Seems farfetched, but it's very good.
Do not be so hard on yourself, we are in a period of major upheaval.
It will be one man in a blue suit.
His name is Philip.
Turns out the only problem is he wasn't a winner, not his politics.
Spineless.
Blair in 1997: 13,518,167
May in 2017: 13,616,601 (with one result to come)
No-one should listen to a word I say.
If May won't resign Jezza could win a landslide when the Tories are next dragged kicking and screaming to the polls.
I am happy with the current outcome, but I do not think it will last 6 months. Having said that, the Labour minority govt in the 70s (Lib/Lab Pact etc) did manage 5 years although they remain as a truly dreadful and depressing time in my recollection.
Is Nicola Sturgeon near a working majority?
She must go.
Lots of models last night had seat predictions that were rated as 95% or 99% certainties going awry.
Beware Of The Tails.
The afternoon after the night before isn't the best time to pronounce one's verdict - though that is of course what our system demands of our media and elected politicians. Since I am neither, I will demur a little. The exit poll came as a surprise but I had rationalised how it must have happened even before I set off for my count.
Here in Don Valley I found a lot of swing from the Labour areas, just as reported from canvassers from both sides throughout the campaign. I was unsurprised to get a chunky swing in my favour (4.8%) but it's clear we never had the whole picture. Judging by other results (see e.g. Rother Valley), I'm not certain that the absence of a UKIP candidate helped - though the endorsement of their specific candidate from 2015 was useful.
As a party we now have to reflect on the result and yet act responsibly in the national interest. I respect the increased vote for Labour, and I am particularly glad to see the increase in youth turnout even though it clearly didn't help me. But I am determined that we should never allow Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister as I truly believe that would be a stain on our nation's history. Quite how long this Parliament will last remains to be seen.
On a personal note, many thanks for all the messages of support (and donations!) on here, including many from across the partisan divide. This site remains by far the best one on the internet for genuine cross-party dialogue, and huge thanks to OGH, rcs1000 and TSE (amongst others) for that.
Best wishes to all!
Aaron / TP
Wait... what?
There could be a very clear Labour majority next time. Last night showed just how easily many key England marginals could revert to Labour.
The PM should have done a Cameron. Announce her intention to go as soon as a new leader could be elected. Draw a line under the shamble and take the initiative. Instead the Conservative are limping along with a dead weight leader who has attached herself to the toxic DUP like an anchor around a drowning man. The Prime Minister is little short of a walking talking laughing stock.
Do the Conservatives really believe clinging to a life line with the DUP will delight the type of voter they aim to attract. May has allowed personal survival and short term expediency to override the interests of the nation and her party.
Theresa May called the general election for party gain. It was a shabby decision and she has been found out. She diminishes her office and herself further by staying a nano second longer than she must.
Not sure when this conservative leadership is going to change hands so not going to tie up money laying him to try and trade out the bet.
Quite near the Isle of Thanet
A Labour government could only rely on the certain backing of 39 non-Labour MP's (Sylvia Hermon won't support Corbyn).
Also, talking about "colleagues" who have lost seats as if they are dead. OTT.
She is in a poor place at present but if you gave the choice of May as PM or another GE I would expect a good majority would say May as PM
John Curtice provides some context:
“Labour has lost this election as badly as Gordon Brown did in 2010.”
and
https://order-order.com/2017/06/09/may-in-denial-delivers-tone-deaf-victory-speech-with-no-mention-of-dire-result/
People on here would be well served to stop contorting simple realities to fit their evidently bogus political preconceptions. It's more profitable to acknowledge what is starting you in the face.
"Will you call an early GE or continue until 2022?"
Nobody will believe their answer.
https://twitter.com/reelmolesworth/status/873121201421336577
But on a business level, she made a huge miscalculation, wasn't a people person and she has paid a price for that.