Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

11213141517

Comments

  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,450
    DearPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Breaking: Theresa May to ask her top five Cabinet ministers to all stay in post - Hammond, Boris, Rudd, Fallon and David Davis stay.

    "To ask" - what happens if Boris (or Davis or Hammond) declines..... Davis Davis's ego should never be underestimated.
    Yes, very telling that she feels she has to tell the media in advance what she's going to say to her senior ministers.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    By the by, the state of two-party politics in England is demonstrated by the astonishing number of seats where the Conservatives polled over 40% - sometimes, well over 40% - and still lost.
  • Options
    atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    Chris said:


    They've tried a referendum and an election, but both of those only made things worse.

    Who'd have thought it?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Zombie Cabinet - ASSEMBLE!

    @bbclaurak: Fallon, Davis, Rudd, Hammond, Johnson, all confirmed - top five stay in place
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,404

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
    They shouldn't have to swear allegiance to that either. They have been democratically elected. We don't insist on that nonsense at Stormont, so why at Westminster?
    Because when MPs swear allegiance to the Queen they are swearing allegiance to the head of state rather than to a particular Government. It is exactly the same as the Police and Armed Forces who also swear allegiance to the Queen and through her to the State and the people. It means that in the unlikely event of a Government turning against the people, the armed forces, police and our representatives have sworn to stand by the people not the Government.
    I am sure that we could find a form of words that would be mutually acceptable, it's not beyond the wit of man.
    Why should we? We are currently a monarchy and our head of state is the embodiment of the people. Were we a republic it would be the same. But the important point is that were we a republic the position of head of state would be politicised and as such the oath could be undermined. A non political head of state is an important part of real control of Government.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    By the by, the state of two-party politics in England is demonstrated by the astonishing number of seats where the Conservatives polled over 40% - sometimes, well over 40% - and still lost.


    It was a reverse 1983 - the Left amalgamated rather than splitting.

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,522
    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    Why?
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Breaking: Theresa May to ask her top five Cabinet ministers to all stay in post - Hammond, Boris, Rudd, Fallon and David Davis stay.

    Knock that smirk off your face, Hammond......

    Now if he had been savaging Labour's economic offering during the election, rather than sulking over losing his job after the election, then the Tories would have perhaps got a dozen more seats over the line. And a majority Govt. again. Then May could have sacked h..... ah, I see the problem there.....
    Oh come on. The reason it was a Presidential campaign which sidelined Hammond is that May wanted a personal mandate, and to sack him later at her leisure. Was he missing interviews? Or refusing to lead on the topic of the day?

    The truth is she personally got it wrong. There wasn't some kind of nefarious scheme by Hammond to deprive her of the three figure majority she felt she'd definitely get. It's utterly ludicrous to blame anyone but May herself. Her judgment, her hubris, her performance.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    We live in a one man one vote system and that is two whole votes. Two! Iron clad. Unquestionable.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,063
    tlg86 said:

    This is remarkable (to me anyway) - look at the remainer revenge top 20 targets.

    They got 2,3,4,5,7 for starters - including Kensington at 2.


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367

    Any Tory Remainer voting Labour should thank their lucky stars that the Scottish Tories came good.
    After Toppings feedback, it's to be hoped this was a one-off protest vote by these London remainer areas thinking Corbyn was nowhere near power so they could safely do so.... no guarantee though and I suggest a Boris or DD as new Tory leader would make it less likely it will be.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    What could possibly go wrong in going to court over a two votes victory?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winchester_by-election,_1997
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    IMO, this encapsulates why the Northern and Welsh working-class stayed Labour, against all expectations:

    Back in 2015, we found a focus group “projective” technique very revealing. It involved asking voters what each party would cook if it were hosting Come Dine With Me. The Labour party, people said, would cook salmon en croute with craft beer – emblematic of a metropolitan Labour elite out of touch with its traditional roots. Now, voters choose more “ordinary” meals: spaghetti bolognese or egg and chips. Labour seems more authentically working-class than it has for a while: “It’s what they were founded on really, so they want to try and keep that tradition going.” On the other hand, despite May’s bid to represent “Jams” [just about managing], the Conservative brand is as resolutely “upper-class” as it was under Old Etonian David Cameron. Voters’ answer to the Come Dine With Me Tory question? “They’d cook game pie, having shot the pheasant themselves in their free time.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/labour-egg-and-chips-the-tories-game-pie-what-our-focus-groups-said-voices-and-votes
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    Allen said the UK should seek to “buy ourselves some time” before starting Brexit talks with the EU, and that this could decide how long May stayed as prime minister. But she said May should not stay longer than six months.

    "It depends on how those conversations go, but certainly I don’t see any more than six months."

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    Wait, actually Betfair have paid out, don't care about the result.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    Hammond, Rudd, Johnson, Davis, Fallon all remain.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,924
    They thought they'd use the UK Olympics logo to give more gravitas?
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    What could possibly go wrong in going to court over a two votes victory?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winchester_by-election,_1997
    If it's rerun it will go blue in a landslide
  • Options
    atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    An absurd answer often given when reasons dry up. Obviously the point Bobabjob is making is that it shouldn't be the law. Replying that it is is like a child replying "Because."
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181

    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    What could possibly go wrong in going to court over a two votes victory?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winchester_by-election,_1997
    Difference here is that there will be a big tactical vote for LD from Con.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,522

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    Spot on.
  • Options
    ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited June 2017

    By the by, the state of two-party politics in England is demonstrated by the astonishing number of seats where the Conservatives polled over 40% - sometimes, well over 40% - and still lost.


    It was a reverse 1983 - the Left amalgamated rather than splitting.

    Along those lines, if you're a LibDem isn't now exactly they moment to start to look like a soft right alternative to the Tories? Come to terms with soft Brexit and plant a flag on the vacant Cameroon/Blair forums. Shame for them they used up Clegg, he'd have been perfect right now.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    Chameleon said:

    Hammond, Rudd, Johnson, Davis, Fallon all remain.

    So glad Rudd kept her seat.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    [snip]

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    She has a point.
  • Options
    GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    Allen said the UK should seek to “buy ourselves some time” before starting Brexit talks with the EU, and that this could decide how long May stayed as prime minister. But she said May should not stay longer than six months.

    "It depends on how those conversations go, but certainly I don’t see any more than six months."

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    A newcomer who shows more sense than the established so-called leaders
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @annemcelvoy: The definition of "in office, nut not in power" - not being able to reshuffle your team https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/873210331644002305

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/873213338251132928
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,404
    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    Why?
    Because they've forgotten Winchester. That was a two vote margin, too, until it wasn't.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,522

    tlg86 said:

    This is remarkable (to me anyway) - look at the remainer revenge top 20 targets.

    They got 2,3,4,5,7 for starters - including Kensington at 2.


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367

    Any Tory Remainer voting Labour should thank their lucky stars that the Scottish Tories came good.
    After Toppings feedback, it's to be hoped this was a one-off protest vote by these London remainer areas thinking Corbyn was nowhere near power so they could safely do so.... no guarantee though and I suggest a Boris or DD as new Tory leader would make it less likely it will be.
    Not that I think another election is likely, but if there was another one, working out what would happen in these places would be a big piece of the jigsaw.

    I wonder how many people woke up this morning and thought "bloody hell"?
  • Options
    atia2atia2 Posts: 207


    We are currently a monarchy and our head of state is the embodiment of the people.

    Gobbledegook.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
    The fact that she is not already toast makes me think this could go on for a long time. Like, whole Brexit negotiation long.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,404
    atia2 said:

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    An absurd answer often given when reasons dry up. Obviously the point Bobabjob is making is that it shouldn't be the law. Replying that it is is like a child replying "Because."
    I haven't. I have explained why it is the law. Of course you may be too dumb to understand it.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,142
    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,404
    atia2 said:


    We are currently a monarchy and our head of state is the embodiment of the people.

    Gobbledegook.

    Like I said, too dumb to understand it.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:


    The fact that she is not already toast makes me think this could go on for a long time. Like, whole Brexit negotiation long.

    The only reason for that would be so the men in Grey suits can use her as a lightning rod for when it goes bad, and she might give up long before that point
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,063
    Chukka offering himself to the shadow cabinet........

  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    edited June 2017
    So she's got a Cabinet. Think she'll be in for the duration of the Brexit negotiations now. Then ousted or stepping down in 2020/21 after the negotiations are complete and in the lead-up to the next GE.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181
    Apparently the BBC can''t get hold of senior Tories. Something is afoot...
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Hammond needs binning for his Mr Invisible act (although no doubt Theresa respects this show as it's how she became PM) and Fallon needs to go because he has made gaffe after gaffe.

    But most of all, Theresa needs to set out a plan very soon on how and when she is going to go.

    Oh and let's not forget the two advisers - they shouldn't darken Downing Street again.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,

    Next to no chance of boundary changes being passed by this Parliament.
  • Options
    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:


    The fact that she is not already toast makes me think this could go on for a long time. Like, whole Brexit negotiation long.

    The only reason for that would be so the men in Grey suits can use her as a lightning rod for when it goes bad, and she might give up long before that point
    Not sure who those grey clad men are these days...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,306
    Danny565 said:

    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,

    Next to no chance of boundary changes being passed by this Parliament.
    Yeah, the only chance would be if it is changed to be 650-seats. Even then it wouldn't be guaranteed.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,181

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    Why?
    Because they've forgotten Winchester. That was a two vote margin, too, until it wasn't.
    And there is a substantial Con vote to squeeze, the LDs will comfortably take it.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,924
    maaarsh said:

    May obviously has to go, but priority 1, 2 and 3 for every Conservative mp should be protecting people from a scenario where the nutters across the street get control, so they need to tread very carefully while doing this.

    Yes.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,262
    I'm convinced Hammond was sidelined over that NI fuckup before the campaign started, the one with that video of Cameron seemingly criticizing them for breaking manifesto commitments.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669

    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    If it is a coronation, no. But the membership really, REALLY need to vote for the next Leader/Prime Minister.
    In practice, doesn't that mean May needs to complete the Brexit negotiations first, or that there needs to be agreement to postpone them? Can't have several months of campaign, and a change of national leadership direction, during the middle of them, surely?
    Well, as I said earlier, the EU will not negotiate at all until they know they are going to be doing so with someone who (presumably) won't be tied to "No deal is better than a bad deal".

    And promptly offer us a bad deal.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Not that I care, far from it, but does nobody In the PCP have a conception of the annihilation they are marching themselves to? They are looking at 1997 on steroids, possibly by October.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Does anybody have a completed copy of results spreadsheet prepared by AndyJS or from elsewhere ( I know this till be one result short) I would love to start to play with it and see if I can find any as yet unnoticed trends in it.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,063
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    I have about as much authority training my dog than May does with her team....she is diminished and is one minor slip up from oblivion....and I mean one minor thing....a bad single PMQ's could finish her off.....
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618
    GeoffH said:

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    Allen said the UK should seek to “buy ourselves some time” before starting Brexit talks with the EU, and that this could decide how long May stayed as prime minister. But she said May should not stay longer than six months.

    "It depends on how those conversations go, but certainly I don’t see any more than six months."

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    A newcomer who shows more sense than the established so-called leaders
    And people are complaining about the Standard's 'Denial' headline...
    Seems generous to me; delusional would be closer to the mark.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,152
    Breaking. No reshuffle, of the top/Brexit jobs anyhow.
  • Options

    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    And that's from a country with a blustering sex pest as President, so they know what they are talking about when they make Italy comparisons.
  • Options
    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,063
    Jeez...the DUP look en masse like a group on a day pass out from the Unit.....
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,924
    atia2 said:

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    An absurd answer often given when reasons dry up. Obviously the point Bobabjob is making is that it shouldn't be the law. Replying that it is is like a child replying "Because."
    Isn't it the parents who answer only "because"?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,450
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    Or has she had to beg them to stay?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    tyson said:

    Chukka offering himself to the shadow cabinet........

    Oh, NOW he wants to be in the Shadow Cabinet.

    Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.....

  • Options
    GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Come back Ramsey MacDonald. We need you now.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    I have about as much authority training my dog than May does with her team....she is diminished and is one minor slip up from oblivion....and I mean one minor thing....a bad single PMQ's could finish her off.....
    PM Corbyn delivers soft Brexit, investment, an end of austerity and national purpose. Who'dda thunk It?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    A bit rich, coming from a country which elected Trump as president and is now emboiled in a congressional inquiry into whether he leant on the FBI.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,063
    Chameleon said:

    Apparently the BBC can''t get hold of senior Tories. Something is afoot...

    I think TM may well end up getting the Thatcher treatment from her colleagues when they politely tell her to piss off.....
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tyson said:

    Jeez...the DUP look en masse like a group on a day pass out from the Unit.....

    Ten white male middle class bigots and their bigot matron offering stability. Colour me skeptical
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618

    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    A bit rich, coming from a country which elected Trump as president and is now emboiled in a congressional inquiry into whether he leant on the FBI.
    Getting into an argument over which of us is the least crap seems singularly pointless.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    tyson said:

    Chameleon said:

    Apparently the BBC can''t get hold of senior Tories. Something is afoot...

    I think TM may well end up getting the Thatcher treatment from her colleagues when they politely tell her to piss off.....
    What in God's name? Ken Clarke is 6 on BF for next leader.

    I went back to bed this afternoon - has something happened?
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
    Let's say she triggers a leadership contest and there are only two candidates - how long would the voting period be?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    TSE will be pleased to see the UDA boys like their 80's musical references too....
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,927
    atia2 said:

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances

    Being "bloody difficult" is fine in no circumstances. I avoid doing business with "bloody difficult" people. It's absurd that this was made a selling point. Are we children?
    Had this argument a week or so ago. I agree completely. Being bloody difficult is not a good negotiating position.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618
    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me....

    That is right and reasonable - but while she clings on to power to the detriment of the country, it can't be a reason to enable her.
    May has the weekend to see sense; otherwise things seem very likely to get ugly.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851

    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
    Let's say she triggers a leadership contest and there are only two candidates - how long would the voting period be?
    It's an age isn't it? Three months or something. I remember DC v Davis in 2005 was pretty much May to December.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618
    kjh said:

    atia2 said:

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances

    Being "bloody difficult" is fine in no circumstances. I avoid doing business with "bloody difficult" people. It's absurd that this was made a selling point. Are we children?
    Had this argument a week or so ago. I agree completely. Being bloody difficult is not a good negotiating position.
    The ability to be bloody difficult is very useful indeed; as a defining characteristic it isn't.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.

    Who is the stalking horse? Surely one will appear this summer?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,162
    Mr. Tyson, nonsense. I'm sure the large consignment of knives being delivered to the 1922 Committee is simply to ensure their vegetables are nicely diced.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    Allen said the UK should seek to “buy ourselves some time” before starting Brexit talks with the EU, and that this could decide how long May stayed as prime minister. But she said May should not stay longer than six months.

    "It depends on how those conversations go, but certainly I don’t see any more than six months."

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    Fair comment
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,618
    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    I have about as much authority training my dog than May does with her team....she is diminished and is one minor slip up from oblivion....and I mean one minor thing....a bad single PMQ's could finish her off.....
    PM Corbyn delivers soft Brexit, investment, an end of austerity and national purpose. Who'dda thunk It?

    no one?
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017
    Nigelb said:

    That is right and reasonable - but while she clings on to power to the detriment of the country, it can't be a reason to enable her.
    May has the weekend to see sense; otherwise things seem very likely to get ugly.

    I don't see it as her clinging to power, more a question at the top of no-one near the top of the party knowing quite what to do next. Obviously they will be busy on the phones and holding secret meetings in smoke-free rooms. Either they'll come up with a consensus, or someone (Boris?) will break ranks and go public in a bid to seize the initiative.

    Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,397
    atia2 said:

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    An absurd answer often given when reasons dry up. Obviously the point Bobabjob is making is that it shouldn't be the law. Replying that it is is like a child replying "Because."
    Has it occurred to you that sitting in Westminster might actually be something that SF don't *wan't* to do? They think the only Irish parliament should be in Dublin*

    *I assume a United Ireland's capital is Dublin.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Nigelb said:

    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.

    If they think the surge has stopped they are mad. And the blue kippers are going to be sodding off en masse. They'll be polling low 30s next week
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,152
    The DUP show every sign of being wiling and able to play hard ball.

    Every village in the province is going to be getting its own bypass, or similar
  • Options
    TypoTypo Posts: 195

    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.

    Who is the stalking horse? Surely one will appear this summer?
    Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.

    I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet.
  • Options
    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,

    Yesterday's seat distribution showed how Labour benefits from current boundaries.

  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    IanB2 said:

    The DUP show every sign of being wiling and able to play hard ball.

    Every village in the province is going to be getting its own bypass, or similar

    Give them gold-plated farm gates if that what is needed to keep Corbyn out of No. 10.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    atia2 said:

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances

    Being "bloody difficult" is fine in no circumstances. I avoid doing business with "bloody difficult" people. It's absurd that this was made a selling point. Are we children?
    Had this argument a week or so ago. I agree completely. Being bloody difficult is not a good negotiating position.
    The ability to be bloody difficult is very useful indeed; as a defining characteristic it isn't.
    As a commercial negotiator for 25 years, being bloody difficult is a very handy thing to have in your locker, but only when deployed very sparingly - and your normal default position is to try to work towards getting a deal done.

    Also having a REALLY LOUD SCREAMING FIT is in the same category. (I once frightened one of my own colleagues when it was deployed, so rarely did it need to make an appearance.....but I had been dragged to Perth, WA to have a guy tell me he was going to do exactly what he had been told not to do by the Joint Venture.

    Oh, and it worked.....)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415

    Nigelb said:

    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.

    If they think the surge has stopped they are mad. And the blue kippers are going to be sodding off en masse. They'll be polling low 30s next week
    Where will kippers go? UKIP may not even exist as a party by end of the month.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking. No reshuffle, of the top/Brexit jobs anyhow.

    I can't believe Theresa May herself would want to be in a position where she's so weak she can't even reshuffle the Cabinet.

    Philip must have a word and tell her it's over....
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,978

    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    Yes, but without the sex.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Nigelb said:

    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.

    "Apparent" is the key word, however.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Well, we know May wont win an election in 4 months.

    So, what have they got to lose?
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    edited June 2017
    Brom said:

    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.

    Because social media is 99% value-signalers who are obsessed with the gays? Sod stable government etc, as long as every single person in politics has the exact same belief system as them.....

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Danny565 said:

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election.
    I agree, new leader, new mandate.

    An autumn election is quite possible, a government like this is very vulnerable to a confidence vote.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    One thing is for sure: at next GE the PM/leader will turn up to the debates.

    As I posted earlier I hear that was the day the tide turned against her in at least one typical West Midlands workplace.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Nigelb said:

    That is right and reasonable - but while she clings on to power to the detriment of the country, it can't be a reason to enable her.
    May has the weekend to see sense; otherwise things seem very likely to get ugly.

    I don't see it as her clinging to power, more a question at the top of no-one near the top of the party knowing quite what to do next. Obviously they will be busy on the phones and holding secret meetings in smoke-free rooms. Either they'll come up with a consensus, or someone (Boris?) will break ranks and go public in a bid to seize the initiative.

    Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
    Agree. Who is the 'Stop Boris'?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    NEW THREAD
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    Typo said:

    I wonder what would have happened under PM Leadsom?

    She probably wouldn't have been able to believe her luck and hung on until 2020.

    It's interesting to ponder isn't it?

    She's had kept Osborne in thew Cabinet for starters...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,669
    Typo said:

    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.

    Who is the stalking horse? Surely one will appear this summer?
    Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.

    I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet.
    Cometh the hour....step forward Rory Stewart and Johnny Mercer. Any others?
This discussion has been closed.