She needs to deliver a very soft Brexit, and do something drastic on housing. She needs to transition us into EFTA/EEA then we all have a rethink. That's my weary and probably wrong headed analysis of the day.
May needs to do what Cameron didn't after his ludicrously pathetic negotiation. If he had walked away and said we'll leave the EU and go for EFTA or something like it, he would likely have won, and still be PM. I would expect something like 80% of Brits would back free trade, and some freedom of movement, if we lost some of the EU baggage.
I'm actually quite confident now that we will end up with an arrangement that leaves almost everyone happy.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
"JonCisBack said: There are some amazing Lab results out there in seats they were nowhere in before, e.g.
Truro and Falmouth 37.7% +22.5!"
The unwind of the tactical votes for LibDems. Second referendum toxic down here in the SW.
Tbh, somewhat surprised the Cons held on to Camborne and Redruth. George Eustice must have run a good campaign. Fantastic result for Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moorview as well - he hoovered up the great bulk of the departing Kipper vote. (Compare to say North Devon, where the blues picked up only a quarter of it.)
Huge increase in Ben Bradshaw's personal vote in Exeter.
Ah it's you the Torbay chap I think?
Well done. Almost back to Rupert Allason levels of safe seatness ;-)
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
I am a die-hard Remainer but even I believe that there is no way we can have a second referendum. We are such damaged goods now that the EU is well rid of us. This country is practically schizophrenic towards Europe.
I think this is unresolved business. If there was a clear shift in public opinion, I think they would probably want us back but they would want a closer relationship. It may just be that Brexit is reversed, not an impossible outcome by any means, but not one that I consider immediately likely.
That is a total joke. Sinn Fein could just take their seats temporarily to defeat their arch enemies and the pact would be within one MP rebellion of losing its majority.
Nice to see you rattled and calling for a Labour Sinn Fein pact.
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
Re: Kensington I am in this constituency and am away with my family. My wife and I got postal votes but my 2 daughters nominated a proxy. When the proxy turned up he could only vote for 1 of them. With such a close result would there be grounds/a mechanism for challenging the result? Evidence of similar admin problems in other seats, perhaps due to councils being caught on the hop by the sudden nature of the election, new registration procedures etc Could other close results be challenged, possibly changing the maths?
In the end, had Corbyn had a better frontbench team, he would have scraped a majority IMO. Abbott and Smith etc are so weak. Surely a Labour reshuffle tomorrow, bringing back Yvette and Chuka etc, then wait for the government to fall, as it will, probably within a couple of months.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
If the Tories go for an Autumn election I expect they would lose.
They now need to get a better leader and start delivering some quality of life improvements and stop obsessing about Europe.
Yes, I think this is basically where we're at. A quick EU negotiation, accept EEA/EFTA, pay them €30bn or whatever and the €3-5bn per year access charge and call it a day. Get on with the business of government sooner rather than later, stop banging on about the deficit, keep cutting taxes for the low paid, keep the minimum wage rising and hammer buy-to-let landlords until they are forced to sell, support first time buyers with government backed mortgages. I would also hope that the next Tory PM makes a big pledge to give the NHS £350m per week and we draw a line under the leave campaign.
Government backed mortgages is an astonishingly bad idea. The Help to Buy (or Sell, more accurately) policy has been a disaster
Why do you want to keep desperately pumping up a deflating house price bubble?
The single biggest thing you can do to win over younger voters long term is stop housing costs being so insanely high. This means significant house price falls over a period of years (and rents will follow)
That is a total joke. Sinn Fein could just take their seats temporarily to defeat their arch enemies and the pact would be within one MP rebellion of losing its majority.
No need, not being able to get anything through the Lords is going to make things unworkable very quickly.
Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.
Not really. As pointed out down thread, yes more younger voters did turn out but that doens't account for what happened.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.
Agreed. Voters like lots of goodies while their heads are stuck in the sand.
Never before have such large bribes been so blatantly offered to the electorate. I have to admit I was worried they would be popular (greed or self interest invariably trump principle) but I thought Corbyn's baggage would do for him. I was wrong.
It looks like if Labour had won 10 more seats they probably would have had enough to form a progressive alliance government with the SNP, LDs, Greens, PC and Corbyn would be heading for Downing Street.
If Corbyn had handed over to Clive Lewis the day May called the election, we'd now be in government.
That is a total joke. Sinn Fein could just take their seats temporarily to defeat their arch enemies and the pact would be within one MP rebellion of losing its majority.
SF aren't coming back anytime soon. 325 is not the majority barrier.
Re: Kensington I am in this constituency and am away with my family. My wife and I got postal votes but my 2 daughters nominated a proxy. When the proxy turned up he could only vote for 1 of them. With such a close result would there be grounds/a mechanism for challenging the result? Evidence of similar admin problems in other seats, perhaps due to councils being caught on the hop by the sudden nature of the election, new registration procedures etc Could other close results be challenged, possibly changing the maths?
Dunno but think Labour might win there. They were ahead by 38 votes on the recount and it's very rare for that to be overturned on the third recount (which is scheduled for tomorrow).
That is a total joke. Sinn Fein could just take their seats temporarily to defeat their arch enemies and the pact would be within one MP rebellion of losing its majority.
Nice to see you rattled and calling for a Labour Sinn Fein pact.
I'm not rattled at all. I'm absolutely beaming. I am merely pointing out the maths. They don't add up!
Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
I am a die-hard Remainer but even I believe that there is no way we can have a second referendum. We are such damaged goods now that the EU is well rid of us. This country is practically schizophrenic towards Europe.
I think this is unresolved business. If there was a clear shift in public opinion, I think they would probably want us back but they would want a closer relationship. It may just be that Brexit is reversed, not an impossible outcome by any means, but not one that I consider immediately likely.
There is no reason to believe now that the EU wants us back or is going to cut us any slack. Maybe they will change their minds, but we will need to make that case. What a stupid thing to trigger Article 50 before we got our ducks lined up!
Peter A Smith @PeterAdamSmith 2m2 minutes ago More For 1st time since Sturgeon became FM, I now hear SNP members question direction she's taking the party. Not a coup; more an alarm sounding.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
This is the worse bit. Cameron / Osborne won the argument of socially liberal / economically conservative approach, such that at the last GE Labour and Lib Dems were offering only minor spins on this.
Now its "politics of the madhouse - this time it is genuinely insane"....
As bad as things are for the Tories, and they are bad, I think Labour are worse off. They are stuck with Corbyn now and his bonkers policies.
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
Because he's on his way to Number Ten any way. The only way to stop Corbyn now is to let people experience a Corbyn government first hand - And at least if its with 266 it'll be the weakest government you could imagine.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
If the Tories go for an Autumn election I expect they would lose.
They now need to get a better leader and start delivering some quality of life improvements and stop obsessing about Europe.
Yes, I think this is basically where we're at. A quick EU negotiation, accept EEA/EFTA, pay them €30bn or whatever and the €3-5bn per year access charge and call it a day. Get on with the business of government sooner rather than later, stop banging on about the deficit, keep cutting taxes for the low paid, keep the minimum wage rising and hammer buy-to-let landlords until they are forced to sell, support first time buyers with government backed mortgages. I would also hope that the next Tory PM makes a big pledge to give the NHS £350m per week and we draw a line under the leave campaign.
Government backed mortgages is an astonishingly bad idea. The Help to Buy (or Sell, more accurately) policy has been a disaster
Why do you want to keep desperately pumping up a deflating house price bubble?
The single biggest thing you can do to win over younger voters long term is stop housing costs being so insanely high. This means significant house price falls over a period of years (and rents will follow)
First time buyers only and only up to a certain value, a helping hand for those who find it tough to get a mortgage, especially in the environment of falling prices.
Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
I am a die-hard Remainer but even I believe that there is no way we can have a second referendum. We are such damaged goods now that the EU is well rid of us. This country is practically schizophrenic towards Europe.
Is it fair to conclude that the 44% are the 30% Tory floor, those that will never tollerate Corbyn, and some "hard Brexiters"? That being the case, if there is to be another election this year then does it really depend on who is in the Labour vote and how fickle they are?
SO posted this snap election would give Labour a chance to be back in power for 2022 having looked locked-out to nearer 2030.... in actuality there's a slightly terrifying thought it now could be in 2017.
That's the scale of this Tory cock up. Best summarised here:
Mr. Meeks, understanding people similar to us is natural, and those with some overlapping interests is possible. Understanding those who are very different can be extremely difficult (as we saw with the EU vote).
Don't beat yourself up. This was a very difficult election to try and call. If the Lib Dems had won one fewer seat, my modest green result would be flat. If Westermorland had been lost to the yellows and Richmond Park won (instead of the other way around) my green figure would be doubled or tripled. A huge number of seats were determined by tiny margins with an unexpectedly high turnout.
Off-topic and FPT: I tipped a little while ago No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes). Of the last 7 races, 2 have featured one, and the forecast is for it to be dry.
Not a dead cert by any stretch, but does look like value to me.
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
Because he's on his way to Number Ten any way. The only way to stop Corbyn now is to let people experience a Corbyn government first hand - And at least if its with 266 it'll be the weakest government you could imagine.
Thanks to whoever tipped Lab gain Leeds NW and Con hold St Ives - because of those I've managed to finish up a couple of hundred quid on my GE2017 betting despite some stupid bets.
A disappointing result, but at least the Union emerges stronger from it.
One ray of sunshine.
Oh, and fellow baby boomers - the party's over - they're on to us! They've worked out they need to vote to get what they want (which in the long run will be for the good of the country, even if we have to re-learn some mistakes from the past...)
A question for all PB Tories: How many Tory MP's will tie themselves to a sinking ship? Can May form a cabinet?
Where are the Cabinet? Apparently they haven't met. How can she see HM without her Cabinet's support?
She'll meet the Queen then start appointing her new cabinet.
If HM doesn't believe May can form a government, and having the basis of a cabinet is considered a sign, then problem. If HM doesn't think that May can form a cabinet (and HM has a good many years and ex-PMs as experience) ......It is one of the Powers that HM can actually use!
Agreed. Voters like lots of goodies while their heads are stuck in the sand.
I think this is really unfair on the British public.
In 2010 they didn't vote for Brown offering them "investment", they voted for austerity.
Then, after the five years were up that George had told them it would take to clear the deficit, when the deficit was still there, and they'd suffered an unprecedented period of falling living standards, what did the British public do? They gave the Tories a majority to finish the job.
Now, after another two years, following an EU referendum where Tory politicians promised the voters that we could splash the cash if we voted for Brexit, with the end of the deficit receding ever onwards into the distant future, with a Tory manifesto full of dour promises to tax dementia, steal lunches from children and increase taxes compared to a manifesto stuffed to the gills with the largest array of spending commitments ever, what do the British people do? They give nearly a million more votes to the zombie-shuffling prospectus of continued doom and gloom.
And what thanks do they get for this act of self-flagellation, of voting for the grim endless task of grinding down the deficit, while the world's super-rich come to London to flaunt their wealth? They are derided for a large minority of them voting for the hope that life tomorrow might not be as much as a struggle as it is today.
Well, gee-whiz guys, but I don't think that the British public are the ones being ungrateful bastards here.
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
The Parliamentary arithmetic was quite different in 1923. The Conservatives are the only party that can form a viable government and it would be a dereliction in duty if they failed to do so.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
Feels like generational revenge. Long, long overdue, but bittersweet.
Not really. As pointed out down thread, yes more younger voters did turn out but that doens't account for what happened.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.
Agreed. Voters like lots of goodies while their heads are stuck in the sand.
Never before have such large bribes been so blatantly offered to the electorate. I have to admit I was worried they would be popular (greed or self interest invariably trump principle) but I thought Corbyn's baggage would do for him. I was wrong.
I don't think ever before has the opposing party not even tried to point out the fact that the bribes are ruinously expensive and totally unaffordable.
Peter A Smith @PeterAdamSmith 2m2 minutes ago More For 1st time since Sturgeon became FM, I now hear SNP members question direction she's taking the party. Not a coup; more an alarm sounding.
I'm not sure if the fact that Salmond lost his seat make Sturgeon safer or more at risk. He's also been cut down so no obvious waiting in the wings moment, yet he is certainly now going to be looking for a way to become an MSP and leader again.
In a sense, it is the worst possible result for the Tories, isn't it? They can't duck the responsibility of trying to carry on governing, because the arithmetic doesn't allow an alternative. But even with DUP support they are vulnerable to the smallest backbench rebellion from any faction. No majority in the Lords, and no moral authority to make the Lords comply. May fatally wounded, but having to carry on, at least for the time being. And facing the most difficult task since the the Second World War.
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
Because he's on his way to Number Ten any way. The only way to stop Corbyn now is to let people experience a Corbyn government first hand - And at least if its with 266 it'll be the weakest government you could imagine.
The other parties will kill it before it gets too bad so as not to toxify themselves by association.
So the people have returned a result which is complicated, confused and uncertain, without a perfect storm where the numbers don't quite stack up for either side, and we are reliant on the professionalism and non-partisanship of our politicians to seem some way forward from all this. Oops.
Lord Lamont says May has to go to a collective style of government and not too much reliance on Special Advisers.
He's right. Expect people from all over the Conservative party in the new cabinet. Probably including Michael Gove and Ken Clarke. She's got to keep a whole load of people happy, will barely be allowed a single rebel in the Commons.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
How surprising. A seriously perceptive article by Hitchins
I'm eating so much humble pie with my Corbyn mates......
He grows on you slowly. I wouldn't have voted for him until the last week when he suddenly transformed into someone modern and revolutionary and I could see what all the fuss was about. Che with a smile.
So the people have returned a result which is complicated, confused and uncertain, and we are reliant on the professionalism and non-partisanship of our politicians to seem some way forward from all this. Oops.
Worst thing is, I also lost money on this!
Unlike last time, we don't have Cleggy, Danny the Park Ranger, Steve Webb et al. to come to the rescue and be sensible in the national interest.
Those posters suggesting the Govt calls a second referendum to sort it out would do well to recall that the last time a Conservative politician went to the nation of their own choosing and came out up on the deal was 1983.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
No, we can't risk it. We have to now play the hand we've been dealt.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
If the Tories go for an Autumn election I expect they would lose.
They now need to get a better leader and start delivering some quality of life improvements and stop obsessing about Europe.
Yes, I think this is basically where we're at. A quick EU negotiation, accept EEA/EFTA, pay them €30bn or whatever and the €3-5bn per year access charge and call it a day. Get on with the business of government sooner rather than later, stop banging on about the deficit, keep cutting taxes for the low paid, keep the minimum wage rising and hammer buy-to-let landlords until they are forced to sell, support first time buyers with government backed mortgages. I would also hope that the next Tory PM makes a big pledge to give the NHS £350m per week and we draw a line under the leave campaign.
Government backed mortgages is an astonishingly bad idea. The Help to Buy (or Sell, more accurately) policy has been a disaster
Why do you want to keep desperately pumping up a deflating house price bubble?
The single biggest thing you can do to win over younger voters long term is stop housing costs being so insanely high. This means significant house price falls over a period of years (and rents will follow)
First time buyers only and only up to a certain value, a helping hand for those who find it tough to get a mortgage, especially in the environment of falling prices.
OK less bad. Might be necessary in times of really steep falls which would be bad for all
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
It's amazing (and a little sad) that a manifesto full of free owls and free university, without a clue how it would be all paid for, was allowed to go almost completely unchallenged.
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
Peter A Smith @PeterAdamSmith 2m2 minutes ago More For 1st time since Sturgeon became FM, I now hear SNP members question direction she's taking the party. Not a coup; more an alarm sounding.
I'm not sure if the fact that Salmond lost his seat make Sturgeon safer or more at risk. He's also been cut down so no obvious waiting in the wings moment, yet he is certainly now going to be looking for a way to become an MSP and leader again.
SNP'ers love Salmond. He has taken them from the wilderness twice and eventually to the dominant power in Scottish politics. He made independence seem possible and came close to winning a referendum on it.
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
It's amazing (and a little sad) that a manifesto full of free owls and free university, without a clue how it would be all paid for, was allowed to go almost completely unchallenged.
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
Theresa May needs to show the same humility, the ridiculous bint. She needs to accept that 48% of the people don't want Brexit, that many Leavers don't want Hard Brexit, and that the young and the old have grown too far apart on everything.
That is a total joke. Sinn Fein could just take their seats temporarily to defeat their arch enemies and the pact would be within one MP rebellion of losing its majority.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
No, we can't risk it. We have to now play the hand we've been dealt.
Agreed. Corbyn has Momentum, if you'll pardon the pun. Con/DUP will have to do.
Great post by Alastair but really he shouldn't feel so down on himself.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Plenty of people said Corbyn could enthuse voters, not least Peter Hitchens
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
If the Tories go for an Autumn election I expect they would lose.
They now need to get a better leader and start delivering some quality of life improvements and stop obsessing about Europe.
Yes, I think this is basically where we're at. A quick EU negotiation, accept EEA/EFTA, pay them €30bn or whatever and the €3-5bn per year access charge and call it a day. Get on with the business of government sooner rather than later, stop banging on about the deficit, keep cutting taxes for the low paid, keep the minimum wage rising and hammer buy-to-let landlords until they are forced to sell, support first time buyers with government backed mortgages. I would also hope that the next Tory PM makes a big pledge to give the NHS £350m per week and we draw a line under the leave campaign.
Government backed mortgages is an astonishingly bad idea. The Help to Buy (or Sell, more accurately) policy has been a disaster
Why do you want to keep desperately pumping up a deflating house price bubble?
The single biggest thing you can do to win over younger voters long term is stop housing costs being so insanely high. This means significant house price falls over a period of years (and rents will follow)
First time buyers only and only up to a certain value, a helping hand for those who find it tough to get a mortgage, especially in the environment of falling prices.
OK less bad. Might be necessary in times of really steep falls which would be bad for all
It would literally just be a way of adding a lower rung on the ladder for first time buyers to help them get on. For too long the middle classes have pulled the ladder up behind them and their kids moan about how they can't afford anywhere to live. Houses are not pensions, leeching off young people in work is not how to fund one's retirement. The whole buy-to-let market needs to be smashed, yesterday.
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
Hard to say. You'd have to be very good with crowds and rely on your opponents not being able to try anything similar I think. And just as a few more losses/fewer in Scotland would have sunk the Tories (more than is the case - in the sense the progressive alliance would have the numbers for a majority), it only just worked in many seats, and so the margin for error is tiny, as 5 fewer gains (and there were some small ones) and the Tories would have had a majority.
So I think the answer is people will try it, it can work, but it isn't perfect.
Any thoughts on a second Brexit referendum? Wth youth vote fired up and registered, would sure be 55/45 Remain?
I am a die-hard Remainer but even I believe that there is no way we can have a second referendum. We are such damaged goods now that the EU is well rid of us. This country is practically schizophrenic towards Europe.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
No, we can't risk it. We have to now play the hand we've been dealt.
I don't think this party is anywhere near ready for another election so I agree.
Ironic that the youth made their voice heard send it's pensioners that will benefit. Triple lock will stay, social care will get binned, WFA probably stays too. And so do tuition fees. Febrile atmosphere incoming
The Tories aren't screwed in any lasting way any more than Labour - who seem to have been circling the bowl for ages. Shit happens. Things change. Odd results emerge. A month ago we all though Labour was going to die. We're movong back to two party politics. Long term both Tory and Labour brands are just fine.
Corbyn's strategy of looking for large crowds rather than focusing specifically on target seats is vindicated?
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
It's amazing (and a little sad) that a manifesto full of free owls and free university, without a clue how it would be all paid for, was allowed to go almost completely unchallenged.
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
You don't try to challenge the free stuff narrative in the short campaign, you need to hammer it home as soon as your opponent becomes leader. As Cameron did to Millband.
Same with the IRA/security stuff. People make a lasting first impression of you very quickly, for many people the first impression they had of Corbyn was during the campaign itself, see the leadership ratings that had 49% Don't know. They flattered to decieve.
Ironic that the youth made their voice heard send it's pensioners that will benefit. Triple lock will stay, social care will get binned, WFA probably stays too. And so do tuition fees. Febrile atmosphere incoming
Even if Corbyn did get his way with free tuition, da yuff would still end up paying for it in direct taxation (rather than a capped graduate tax that we have now). They think they are being offered a free lunch, but it isn't true. Under the supreme leaders plans, the oldies weren't paying for it.
Ironic that the youth made their voice heard send it's pensioners that will benefit. Triple lock will stay, social care will get binned, WFA probably stays too. And so do tuition fees. Febrile atmosphere incoming
Even if Corbyn did get his way with free tuition, da yuff would still end up paying for it in direct taxation (rather than a capped graduate tax that we have now). They think they are being offered a free lunch, but it isn't true.
I doubt the 4 million who voted will see it that way.
It could be argued that if Con can be this near a majority with a terrible leader and a disastrous manifesto, then with a new attractive leader and retail policies then they might get a majority.
Labour need to get behind Corbyn and agree to serve in his shadow cabinet. Corbyn himself is clearly not toxic, and imagine if he wasn't forced to rely on people like Burgon or Abbott. A Corbyn led party with people like Umuna and Yvette in cabinet could see a Labour majority at the next election (which will almost certainly be before 2022).
The Tories aren't screwed in any lasting way any more than Labour - who seem to have been circling the bowl for ages. Shit happens. Things change. Odd results emerge. A month ago we all though Labour was going to die. We're movong back to two party politics. Long term both Tory and Labour brands are just fine.
I agree - I'm genuinely pleased by this outcome, because both big brands are avoiding death, but can't avoid change - the Tories don't win consistently if the opposition isn't divided, and Labour can't win without broadening their coalition back towards the centre again.
TM, on the other hand, is (as the tweet implies) in the proverbial.
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I'm actually quite confident now that we will end up with an arrangement that leaves almost everyone happy.
Well done. Almost back to Rupert Allason levels of safe seatness ;-)
Well the Tories could just say we won't govern but we'll abstain on Corbyns first Queens Speech.
It's what Baldwin did after the 1923 election fiasco;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923
It may just be that Brexit is reversed, not an impossible outcome by any means, but not one that I consider immediately likely.
I am in this constituency and am away with my family. My wife and I got postal votes but my 2 daughters nominated a proxy.
When the proxy turned up he could only vote for 1 of them.
With such a close result would there be grounds/a mechanism for challenging the result?
Evidence of similar admin problems in other seats, perhaps due to councils being caught on the hop by the sudden nature of the election, new registration procedures etc
Could other close results be challenged, possibly changing the maths?
Abbott and Smith etc are so weak. Surely a Labour reshuffle tomorrow, bringing back Yvette and Chuka etc, then wait for the government to fall, as it will, probably within a couple of months.
Why do you want to keep desperately pumping up a deflating house price bubble?
The single biggest thing you can do to win over younger voters long term is stop housing costs being so insanely high. This means significant house price falls over a period of years (and rents will follow)
Meanwhile, in other news....
https://twitter.com/A_RoyoMarine/status/873095438991204352
No is clear favourite.
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For 1st time since Sturgeon became FM, I now hear SNP members question direction she's taking the party. Not a coup; more an alarm sounding.
Why jump straight to the DUP?
If I was them I would (probably) want us in Schengen and (definitely) in the Euro.
I cannot see how that can happen.
That's the scale of this Tory cock up. Best summarised here:
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/873124946083430400
On the plus side selfishly, I presume some form of responsive bribe to the 'youf' might mean lower HE fees is now on the mainstream table!
Don't beat yourself up. This was a very difficult election to try and call. If the Lib Dems had won one fewer seat, my modest green result would be flat. If Westermorland had been lost to the yellows and Richmond Park won (instead of the other way around) my green figure would be doubled or tripled. A huge number of seats were determined by tiny margins with an unexpectedly high turnout.
Off-topic and FPT: I tipped a little while ago No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes). Of the last 7 races, 2 have featured one, and the forecast is for it to be dry.
Not a dead cert by any stretch, but does look like value to me.
Oh, and fellow baby boomers - the party's over - they're on to us! They've worked out they need to vote to get what they want (which in the long run will be for the good of the country, even if we have to re-learn some mistakes from the past...)
In 2010 they didn't vote for Brown offering them "investment", they voted for austerity.
Then, after the five years were up that George had told them it would take to clear the deficit, when the deficit was still there, and they'd suffered an unprecedented period of falling living standards, what did the British public do? They gave the Tories a majority to finish the job.
Now, after another two years, following an EU referendum where Tory politicians promised the voters that we could splash the cash if we voted for Brexit, with the end of the deficit receding ever onwards into the distant future, with a Tory manifesto full of dour promises to tax dementia, steal lunches from children and increase taxes compared to a manifesto stuffed to the gills with the largest array of spending commitments ever, what do the British people do? They give nearly a million more votes to the zombie-shuffling prospectus of continued doom and gloom.
And what thanks do they get for this act of self-flagellation, of voting for the grim endless task of grinding down the deficit, while the world's super-rich come to London to flaunt their wealth? They are derided for a large minority of them voting for the hope that life tomorrow might not be as much as a struggle as it is today.
Well, gee-whiz guys, but I don't think that the British public are the ones being ungrateful bastards here.
https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/873127119055867905
Worst thing is, I also lost money on this!
Of course free stuff is popular, but to be honest I thought we were better than that as a nation.
So I think the answer is people will try it, it can work, but it isn't perfect.
Febrile atmosphere incoming
Same with the IRA/security stuff. People make a lasting first impression of you very quickly, for many people the first impression they had of Corbyn was during the campaign itself, see the leadership ratings that had 49% Don't know. They flattered to decieve.
TM, on the other hand, is (as the tweet implies) in the proverbial.