politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events
Thursday night’s drama was hugely enjoyable. There’s nothing I enjoy more than a series of unfolding surprises. It’s led us to a whole new political landscape, with a whole new range of political problems to chew over.
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I don't think you should underestimate this skill. I'm up nearly £900 because I realised the value was with Labour. I wasn't expecting them to do as well as they did, but it became clear that the market was underestimating their chances.
Total votes
Labour 1997 (Blair landslide)
13,518,167
Conservatives 2017 (May disaster)
13,650,900 (with 1 to come)
LD collapse since 1997 explains it of course, but looking at the Tory performance in isolation it's decent.
Lab + Con share has never increased by anything like as much in one election - huge change.
#statto
You CANNOT say that about the Tory Manifesto. They need a major policy review and rethink after this result. That takes time, time they might not have.
It was a combination of more young voters going for Jezza and older voters not fancying voting to have their houses stolen off them if they get ill so they either switched to other parties or stayed at home.
No-one could possibly have foreseen that Labour surge, or imagined that Corbyn would be such an amazingly good campaigner.
Once again last night i was grateful for my upbringing where my parents managed to convey to me that betting was in moral terms not far off drug taking or shoplifting :-)
Labour ahead by 38 votes I think, on second recount.
Everyone has apparently gone home as counters are out on their feet.
Yet the guy is pollster of the century.
All credit to him.
Isn't the obvious next step a new younger Tory leader offering soft Brexit and a GE in the autumn?
The idea that we can't nationalise our own services but CAN nationalise them to foreign powers is just laughable.
Credit to whoever came up with those.
Brexit is still on, the A50 clock is still ticking and it will feel hard, not soft. We won’t be nearly ready in 2019. We weren’t anyway, but this disruption makes that date even more unachievable in an orderly way. We need to ask the EU27 for a unanimously agreed extension to the Article 50 process. The EU will demand a high price to do so. The country will pay for May’s stupidity in triggering Article 50 before we were ready to do so.
I suggest the Lib Dems, Labour and SNP try to work out a common position on Brexit and then go to the government and say, we will support your government’s negotiations if you follow our proposals. Failing agreement, Labour does the same thing. Cons+DUP don’t have the numbers to push through a slight;y controversial Brexit deal. Cons+Labour do.
UKIP is finished. Even if Brexit is “betrayed”, it won’t come back as a meaningful force.
Theresa May and David Davis need to be replaced. May can’t deliver the deal and both are associated with a failed “take it or leave it” approach to Brexit.
I'm done with polls - I know I say that every time but I really mean it this time!
318 Con
261 Lab
35 SNP
12 LD
10 DUP
7 SF
1 Grn
1 Ind (Silvia Hermon)
"Do not underestimate Jeremy Corbyn. Labour’s Blairites lie dead and dying all over the place because they made that mistake. Tory Blairites such as David Cameron might be wise to learn from this, especially given last week’s dismal, shrinking manufacturing and export figures, which were pushed far away from front pages by other stories, but which cast doubt on the vaunted recovery.
If (like me) you have attended any of Mr Corbyn’s overflowing campaign meetings, you will have seen the hunger – among the under-30s and the over-50s especially – for principled, grown-up politics instead of public relations pap."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/labour-has-a-real-leftyso-can-we-have-proper-conservatives.html
Bojo to be new EU friendly Ted Heath
Just ask David Herdson on the eve of poll. And bet accordingly.
David must have an unbeatable shout at post of the year.
LAB 261!!
Anyhow, watching the people here who do well the impressive thing isn't how much they're right, it's how quickly they reverse themselves when they're wrong.
Rights for EU citizens in
Fox hunting out
Grammar schools Out
Four reasons to be cheerful
Did you bet on Con Most Seats we discussed the other night? I got my fingers burned on the majority and the spreads, and not enough gains elsewhere
"JonCisBack said:
There are some amazing Lab results out there in seats they were nowhere in before, e.g.
Truro and Falmouth 37.7% +22.5!"
The unwind of the tactical votes for LibDems. Second referendum toxic down here in the SW.
Tbh, somewhat surprised the Cons held on to Camborne and Redruth. George Eustice must have run a good campaign. Fantastic result for Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moorview as well - he hoovered up the great bulk of the departing Kipper vote. (Compare to say North Devon, where the blues picked up only a quarter of it.)
Huge increase in Ben Bradshaw's personal vote in Exeter.
Modesty becomes you. I too have no idea what lies ahead, but then I never did.
An odd campaign all around. Nobody went big on the Debt or the Deficit - the dog that didn't bark in the night. It's a feeling that we've done it to death and it doesn't matter any more.
In this constituency, the Labour party majority rose from 20,000 to 25,000, and this is a Northern, 58% Leave area. Things might be different in the South, but Brexit was hardly mentioned here.
I'm loathe to offer advice to the Tories. Firstly because I don't know much about politics, and secondly because they can cock it up without help from me. But ... May's gotta go, pick someone young, and remember that voters like sweeties. Austrity? So last decade.
Indeed. That would be worth a thread in its own right. Those two were absolutely excellent – they make a great duo. They are highly intelligent guys and clearly good friends. They are a massive loss to the British political scene.
Now its "politics of the madhouse - this time it is genuinely insane"....
They now need to get a better leader and start delivering some quality of life improvements and stop obsessing about Europe.
A disappointing result, but at least the Union emerges stronger from it.
Leader in a government of national unity? Fantasy politics but would be quite something...
What an unholy, monumental cockup of terrible dimensions...after the chaos of Brexit, the Tories should not be allowed anywhere near government.....
1p on income tax for NHS and social care, that sounds perfectly sensible to me, it is neither going to cripple people or have people running for the exit doors or unwilling to set up business....or worrying their homes are going to be taken from them.
And the voters went....WHERE ARE MY SWEETIES.....
We'll finish up more "integrated" in the EU not less...
Seems to have had a splendid result down there, majority more or less quadrupled. One happy Tory at least.
Do you think other leaders will adopt it in future? Would it even work for other leaders?
Many thanks to tipsters here whose antennae enabled me to make a pleasing little profit on Scon. Poor result politically for me but a night of great nerd fun, too. Thank you, OGH, TSE, other mods and (almost) all posters for providing absolutely the best place to be during elections.
1. We're a patiriotic bunch and don't like being bossed about or perceived unfairness. Don't like the EU but don't like getting told how to vote either.
2. Paul has more votes than Peter and wants some of his jam. Especially the young 'uns.
3. Parties need charismatic, engaging leaders. Not Brown / May type automatons.
If Labour can rediscover their inner Union Jack / England flag and be a bit less Islington they'll clean up nexy time - until we're bankrupt and then the Tories are back.
Meanwhile the Tories need to find a communicator and accept that the 'sound money god' can't survive too much inequality.
It only makes 328.
That is a total joke. Sinn Fein could just take their seats temporarily to defeat their arch enemies and the pact would be within one MP rebellion of losing its majority.
I'm actually quite confident now that we will end up with an arrangement that leaves almost everyone happy.