politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to the new politics where the young ones actually turn

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Roger said:

Just been listening to George O. Must be in line for the best Tory leader they never had

Ken Clarke says otherwise.

Does he blame him for this mess? If so unfair in my opinion. Cameron is the villain. History will judge him as the worst PM ever.

Nah, the people spoke.

Brexit would have been even messier if we had no referendum and say in 2020 Dave's replacement put in the Tory manifesto to pull us out of the EU and they won a majority on 35% of the vote

There really was no need for him to resign though, it made an uncertain situation more chaotic than need be.

Cameron told us he would not resign if we voted to Leave. We voted to Leave. He resigned.

Cameron bears a significant amount of responsibility for last night. If he hadn't resigned, we would not have had May and then she wouldn't have felt the need to go to the country to get her own mandate from the voters. (Although, I concede that he would have been in a very difficult situation fronting Brexit. So he should have said he would resign if he lost - would probably have been enough to win it for Remain.)

He shouldn't have called a referendum if he wasn't going to stay around to implement either result. Voting to leave the EU needed steady govt to see it through which we had. Very selfish of Cameron, how popular he would have been if he had accepted defeat and got on with his job

So, maybe it turns out Obama in 2008 and 2012 wasn't big data micro targetting maths wizards woo and it was just he was a vastly better candidate than the opposition.

Brom said:

I am looking forward to hearing some stories from tissue price. Such a shame he couldn't pull it off this time, though maybe he will have to stay quiet in case he has another try soon.

TP is a star of the future. The Tories should nurture him.

Floater said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

dixiedean said:

I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.

I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?

If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's that one should avoid saying an issue is settled or finished or decided.

Obviously the result in Scotland means the people want another referendum - oh

Not sure if someone who's whole PB output has been based on loudly stating that voters wouldn't touch RA loving, Hammas cuddling Jezza with a barge pole is in a position to be judging what voters in another country want, but hey ho.

DecrepitJohnL said:

BBC -- Dimbleby, Neil and Laura K all seem very tired and are making verbal slips. The BBC needs to think about more reasonable shifts next time.

To be honest, like most of us, we thought the result would be clean and sorted by 4am.

RobinWiggs said:

Not sure if it has been mentioned, but on a pretty similar share of the vote, Mrs May has secured more votes in total than Tony Blair did in his landslide victory in 1997.

That's 2 party politics for you I suppose.

All that "look at the share not the lead" stuff wasn't so sensible after all.

SouthamObserver said:

nunu said:

Boothman said:

Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.

Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?

Incorrect. The labour plan was to back date the legislation so even those currently in Uni would have had their fees written off. In fact they promised to write off fees from some people who have already graduated. It was self interest, which is fair enough.

That does not explain why my 19 year old daughter who is not at university was so keen on Corbyn. The fact is that unlike the other leaders, he spoke to them and spoke hopefully.

https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/873101307992723456

Floater said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Floater said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

dixiedean said:

I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.

I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?

If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it's that one should avoid saying an issue is settled or finished or decided.

Obviously the result in Scotland means the people want another referendum - oh

Not sure if someone who's whole PB output has been based on loudly stating that voters wouldn't touch RA loving, Hammas cuddling Jezza with a barge pole is in a position to be judging what voters in another country want, but hey ho.

My whole output eh? oh yet more crap from you - hey ho

You ok hun?

Good morning everybody,

after a dramatic night and not much sleep, I have no additional insight in to what might happen now.

But if for nothing but mu one ego can I remind people that at about 7 PM yesterday this was my prediction, well just about, I predicted Conservators at 335 + or - 20 and 318 is in that range.

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

dixiedean said:

I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.

I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?

Should Nicola resign ?

Nah, they won the majority of seats.

Unless Theresa, this was not an election she called.

Also her main (only) rival , Eck , is without a seat.

Who is likely to be SNP leader at Westminster?

Pete Wishart?

Tommy Sheppard I'd say.

Would get my vote. Wait, he did.

The Queen's Speech is in 10 days time.

Fun times ahead.

Also the first PMQs will be awkward for Mrs May

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

dixiedean said:

I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.

I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?

Should Nicola resign ?

Nah, they won the majority of seats.

Unless Theresa, this was not an election she called.

Also her main (only) rival , Eck , is without a seat.

Who is likely to be SNP leader at Westminster?

Pete Wishart?

Tommy Sheppard I'd say.

Would get my vote. Wait, he did.

Ha, me too!
(the last WM leadership election, that is).

So, the Irish Taliban control the destiny of UK foreign policy. Strong and stable, my arse.

MyBurningEars said:

To what extend did differential age turnout, compared to predictions, screw up the Tory seat targeting? Or was that screwed up by other factors? Certainly it seems the Tory effort was directed to seats in a sub-optimal way...

The targeting was correct in some ways.

What was not anticipated was Remain Conservatives in prosperous seats switching to Labour.

murali_s said:

Good afternoon from Colombo!

The one result outstanding is the expected Labour gain in Kensington?

So close for Corbyn - 15 more seats for Labour and Corbyn would have been PM.

Lucky escape fro the country!!!

Some very outstanding results - your party did well

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

dixiedean said:

I see "Enough is Enough" really cut through.

Perhaps it did, but not quite in the way intended.

I don't wish to pick at a sore point, but does this mean Indyref2 is off the table until at least the mid 2020s?

Should Nicola resign ?

Nah, they won the majority of seats.

Unless Theresa, this was not an election she called.

Also her main (only) rival , Eck , is without a seat.

Who is likely to be SNP leader at Westminster?

Pete Wishart?

Tommy Sheppard I'd say.

Cheers, I did like John Nicolson, I always thought he was a long term contender.

BigRich said:

Good morning everybody,

after a dramatic night and not much sleep, I have no additional insight in to what might happen now.

But if for nothing but mu one ego can I remind people that at about 7 PM yesterday this was my prediction, well just about, I predicted Conservators at 335 + or - 20 and 318 is in that range.

Well done. Hope you profited from it. You were one of the few.

perdix said:

This talk of hard and soft Brexit is nonsense. If we leave the EU we leave the Single Market (inc free movement).

Why do you think that? We coulf be a member of the EFTA, in the single market but out of the EU, just as Norway is.

May to see the Queen at 12:30. Has the support of the Ulstermen.

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

She's resigning today.

I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.

Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).

The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.

A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.

The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.

I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.

murali_s said:

Good afternoon from Colombo!

The one result outstanding is the expected Labour gain in Kensington?

So close for Corbyn - 15 more seats for Labour and Corbyn would have been PM.

Seven more.

Con + DUP has majority of 13.

And that means just seven rebels / by-election losses to lose that majority.

And one of those could come in Thanet South fairly soon.

Alice_Aforethought said:

The Tories should be thanking God they're up against Corbyn. Burnham might have won this outright.

In a way they've had a reprieve they don't deserve. They stand the best chance of governing - Corbyn can't even hold his own party together, never mind an alliance of three or four others - and they've had a painful lesson to make the election about policies. Labour got a free ride on a manifesto that was in places very irresponsible.

They need a new leader clearly. That has been clear for about 5 or 6 weeks now.

Burnham would have been frightened of his own shadow and shat his pants from day one of the campaign.

https://twitter.com/danieljhannan/status/873079666705223680

Pulpstar said:

This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind

what choice do they have?

FattyBolger said:

Remainers are reinvigorated and excited this morning, It is not over. Meaningful Brexit now seriously in doubt

No it really isn't.

70% of the population including Remainers want it to go ahead. Corbyn if he ever did get close to power would not be able to do much of what he wants if we are inside the EU. The choice yesterday was between two parties that are both committed to Brexit and the two parties that were opposed both got a bloody nose. The Remainers are no closer to overturning Brexit than they were 3 weeks ago or 3 months ago.

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

This deal with the DUP is going to utterly toxify the Tories. The Tories will hold Mansfield in the next election mind

what choice do they have?

None.

Sandpit said:

May to see the Queen at 12:30. Has the support of the Ulstermen.

SKY News reporting 'understanding' with DUP, but no need for formal agreement.

Peter_the_Punter said:

JohnO said:

Clocking in bloodied and humiliated after three hours in the Hersham stocks being lashed 100 times at one end by monks from the Order of the Psephologians and on the other pelted with the yolks of 319 rotten eggs.

But if my reputation as a sage is er, well and truly f**ked, that's nothing compared to Mrs M and the zombie administration she will soon be leading. Of course, she should go...but to be replaced by whom and when?? Almost all the putative successors are not much less crap than she is. Please not David Davis, please no.

So we're condemned to 'governing' (sic) until it likely all falls apart sometime in the not too distant future. If there's a way out that ends well for the party from this self inflicted imbroglio I can't see it. At least not today.

Commisserations John. You deserved better even if the Government didn't.

Would Ken Clarke do as an interim replacement until the Party sorts itself out a bit? It really can't afford another f*ck up and he is totally dependable and trusted.

Hi Peter, I'm only mightily relieved that my election took place last month not yesterday, otherwise I'd be feeling REALLY sore!

No, Ken would tear what remains of the party (which will still form a government) into a zillion shreds. He's just too divisive. But who else? That's the rub. I think May does have to stay on for a few months until the picture becomes clearer. It's all very grim indeed.

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

She's resigning today.

I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.

Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).

The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.

A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.

The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.

I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.

Really? Which Conservatives have given you that impression?

TGOHF said:

May gone by .... ?

September ?

Monday afternoon.

Sean_F said:

MyBurningEars said:

To what extend did differential age turnout, compared to predictions, screw up the Tory seat targeting? Or was that screwed up by other factors? Certainly it seems the Tory effort was directed to seats in a sub-optimal way...

The targeting was correct in some ways.

What was not anticipated was Remain Conservatives in prosperous seats switching to Labour.

and half of the ukip vote in many seats going to labour! If the tories got two thirds instead they would have made enough gains to ofset the southern losses?

Prediction- May will ask the DUP to support ending the FTPA so her successor can cut and run in 4 months

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa May to visit the palace at 12.30pm to seek permission to form a government.

HMQ should tell her no - You've lost - Bring me someone else.

Then Jez rocks up with Nicola.

I am short GBP on basis that pound has only fallen a bit because market sniffs hard brexit averted; but possibly likely to unravel next few days as it emerges May is going to battle on regardless, with a gun now held to her head by DUP & Duncan Smfuith type Eurosceptic hardliners - for me we are in worse possible scenario; she is very, very weakened but sceptics still in driving seat. Clock ticking. No evidence now brexit will go mega soft despite Osborne tweets, or are there enough Tory pro Europeans to detail and I am misreading?

Is this peak Corbyn or can he kick on from here?

Slackbladder said:

Floater said:

SouthamObserver said:

nunu said:

Boothman said:

Those suggesting Labour won the youth vote by offering a bribe - it's worth noting that most of the young wouldn't have been better off as they are either in the middle of their courses or have finished. There is only a small fraction I believe who would've been liable to pay student loans who would've benefitted from Labour's plans.

Perhaps they voted for some other mad reason... like principle?

Incorrect. The labour plan was to back date the legislation so even those currently in Uni would have had their fees written off. In fact they promised to write off fees from some people who have already graduated. It was self interest, which is fair enough.

That does not explain why my 19 year old daughter who is not at university was so keen on Corbyn. The fact is that unlike the other leaders, he spoke to them and spoke hopefully.

One of my sons voted for him - even though he doesn't like the anti semitism problems Labour has been having.

He thought he had the better vision

thats the key. Thats also why he won the leadership. He had something to sell, and something to offer.

And next time whoever the Tory candidate is for PM, they have to offer that vision too. And be a fuck of a lot smarter at politics. Labour will lose some of their shine - their policies will be under INTENSE scrutiny (they have to be - the way Hammond was absent from the field of battle, sulking at losing the Chancellor's job in the subsequent reshuffle, meant that there was no demolition job on the Labour manifesto it so richly deserved). And they won't be quite so shiny and new. Not quite so obvious as the for-tomorrow-we-die act of rebellion in supporting them. And not quite so fired up by anger at the Brexit outcome. But they will still be very formidable - and fired up by knowing that facing a 10,000 majority is not a bar to winning a seat.

But equally, next time the Tories can't be THAT inept again. Where did all their money go?

OblitusSumMe said:

perdix said:

This talk of hard and soft Brexit is nonsense. If we leave the EU we leave the Single Market (inc free movement).

Why do you think that? We coulf be a member of the EFTA, in the single market but out of the EU, just as Norway is.

Politically impossible for the Tories to get through, this election has strengthened the position of the Brexit Ultras on the back benches. In no circumstances will they accept freedom of movement. The whole point of the election was to give her the numbers to be flexible and not beholden to them. Obvs a failure.

welford said:

SF winning more seats in Northern Ireland effectively lowers the winning post for the Conservative and Democratic Unionist block doesn't it?

yes, DUP made two gains as well. Every little helps.

isam said:

Is this peak Corbyn or can he kick on from here?

A very good question. I think we've all underestimated him to now.

MaxPB said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa May to visit the palace at 12.30pm to seek permission to form a government.

HMQ should tell her no - You've lost - Bring me someone else.

Then Jez rocks up with Nicola.

Would need more than the SNP surely?

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

She's resigning today.

I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.

Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).

The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.

A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.

The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.

I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.

Really? Which Conservatives have given you that impression?

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/873080414583136256

Hilarious display of lack of awareness from him. Things like that are the reason people hate politicians.

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Is this peak Corbyn or can he kick on from here?

A very good question. I think we've all underestimated him to now.

Amusingly Labour mp's claiming Jezza is a unifying figure for country - they seem to have a very short memory.

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

She's resigning today.

I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.

Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).

The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.

A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.

The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.

I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.

Really? Which Conservatives have given you that impression?

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/873080414583136256

That idiot. Thanks.

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Could Paul Nuttall hurry up and resign after his lamentable performance? Some of us have bets riding on him doing so and I don't want it spoiled by the Prime Minister succumbing to a bout of integrity.

She's resigning today.

I suppose it is just possible Nuttall beats her to it but otherwise go directly to Betfair, now.

Well she should. The difficult bit is working out how to manage the transition or whether the Conservatives go straight to a unity candidate (they don't seem in the mood for that).

The Conservatives should stop worrying about their own mood and start thinking about the mood of the country. This could get ugly.

A little contrition wouldn't go amiss.

The Conservatives aren't in the least contrite. They think the only mistake was in the execution rather than the content. If they were chocolate, they'd eat themselves.

I thought the electorate gave some pretty clear signals yesterday. The Conservatives need to consider how they are going to address them.

Really? Which Conservatives have given you that impression?

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/873080414583136256

What a muppet

Richard_Tyndall said:

FattyBolger said:

This talk of hard and soft Brexit is nonsense. If we leave the EU we leave the Single Market (inc free movement).

Remainers are reinvigorated and excited this morning, It is not over. Meaningful Brexit now seriously in doubt

No it really isn't.

70% of the population including Remainers want it to go ahead. Corbyn if he ever did get close to power would not be able to do much of what he wants if we are inside the EU. The choice yesterday was between two parties that are both committed to Brexit and the two parties that were opposed both got a bloody nose. The Remainers are no closer to overturning Brexit than they were 3 weeks ago or 3 months ago.

I think they're much closer. May said this was an election backing Brexit. She didn't get it. It's now down to parliamentary arithmatic. There are many ways the MPs can push it into the long grass and as 75% were against leaving the EU apart from paying lip service to 'the wishes of the people' they now have the power to do it.

Mr. Pulpstar, perhaps at the next election people like Peston will ask more difficult questions than "Will you keep your allotment"?

Floater said:

MaxPB said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theresa May to visit the palace at 12.30pm to seek permission to form a government.

HMQ should tell her no - You've lost - Bring me someone else.

Then Jez rocks up with Nicola.

Would need more than the SNP surely?

They'd still be 24 behind the Tories on their own.....

She needs to let the Labour coalition have a crack at running things, fail over the next twelve months, and collapse - otherwise I think that, when we go back to the polls in six months time, we'll end up with a labour absolute majority under the current leadership.