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What's the rule of the "next leader to leave" market? Do they take into account the time of reisgnation or the election of a successor?0
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What does the Tory performance in actual votes look like, compared to previous elections? Must be pretty high? If so, Tory problem wasn't persuading people to vote Tory, it was persuading non-voters not to vote Labour.0
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If Con win three of five that's 317
Con 317 + DUP 10 = 327
Opposition 316
Total 343 exc SF
Majority 110 -
Lib Dems significantly out performing expectations. At least 12 seats and could have been 15 with a little more luck in Richmond, Ceredigion and Fife NE0
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Are you denying what I'm saying? Will you suffer in reality if it all goes tits-up?Charles said:
No, I won't. And we don't tax plan: we have a moral obligation to pay what society asks and to tithe as well.JosiasJessop said:
Nah, not really. You're mostly insulated from the shit that's about to fall on us.Charles said:
Excuse me, but that was rather uncalled for.JosiasJessop said:Let Corbyn reign.
The people want change. That's obvious from Brexit and this election, even if the idiots screeching for change over the EU did not realise it.
Let him fuck up. The alternative is to let a wounded Conservative party fester on like a particularly odorous zombie.
Oh, and let the Brexiteers who are rucking off or have resources abroad - like MaxPB, Charles and sadly RCS - pay the consequences of their folly.
So many people need to look up the definition of 'conservative'.
Witness the 200 million you were willing seen spent on the Garden Bridge to help the local poor urchins (ahem). You'll just piss off abroad; and even if you do not, you can afford the tax advisers to ensure you and your kids are sorted.
I cannot. I'll pay for your folly.
Get some sleep. This kind of personalised bitchiness is not doing you any favours
I.e. will you have to start looking at the prices on the bread?
No. You are insulated, whatever 'society asks' .0 -
They were busy knocking on doors on Thursday evening as I walked to the polling station. But for the first time, I saw some Tory knocker-uppers too!DecrepitJohnL said:
Sunil will know more about the whole campaign but it was reported that David Miliband was on the ground in Ilford North yesterday.not_on_fire said:What seems so bizarre about this result is that Labour didn't even appear to be trying to hold seats like Ilford. Yet they romped home
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Full chronology including by-election would be "sacked, back and crack on"MarqueeMark said:Zac back and crack on regardless....
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I don't see the resentment towards Zac. He said that if Heathrow went ahead, he'd resign - presumably this was a selling point in his original campaign. On that basis, he couldn't very well weasel out of it. Well, he could, but the fact that he didn't is to his credit, surely?JosiasJessop said:
He called a totally unnecessary by-election. A but like Davis.Pauly said:
Utter nonsense. A great constituency MP, pro-brexit, green on the inside blue on the outside, very socially liberal. He's basically a eurosceptic Cameroon.JosiasJessop said:
The Conservatives would be much better off without Zac.MikeL said:Zak - what a farce - but every seat is vitally important so it's a serious farce.
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Andrew Neil is even more fiery than usual when the BBC forces him into action at 7.25 a.m.0
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LOL!Polruan said:
Full chronology including by-election would be "sacked, back and crack on"MarqueeMark said:Zac back and crack on regardless....
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The Democratic Unionists would have to actively vote against the Tories in the Commons in order to defeat them. If they abstain the Tories have a majority, assuming the 7 Sinn Fein MPs don't take their seats.0
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Huge unassailable majorityThreeQuidder said:Zac by 45...
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So with 7 Shinners, makes Parliament effectively 643.
643 divided by two and rounded up is 322.0 -
2nd worst result in their history.not_on_fire said:Lib Dems significantly out performing expectations. At least 12 seats and could have been 15 with a little more luck in Richmond, Ceredigion and Fife NE
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Just checked: Tory vote in 2017 in 2million up on that in 2015.Cookie said:What does the Tory performance in actual votes look like, compared to previous elections? Must be pretty high? If so, Tory problem wasn't persuading people to vote Tory, it was persuading non-voters not to vote Labour.
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It's by far their best result since 1992.Cookie said:What does the Tory performance in actual votes look like, compared to previous elections? Must be pretty high? If so, Tory problem wasn't persuading people to vote Tory, it was persuading non-voters not to vote Labour.
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I've decide the British electorate are like Andy from Little Britain's Lou and Andy.
"Want that one"
"Are you sure?"
"Yeah..... [pause] Don't like it"
What a kerfuffle......0 -
He has no interest in letting anyone finish a sentence.Dadge said:Andrew Neil is even more fiery than usual when the BBC forces him into action at 7.25 a.m.
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Last 5 seats absolutely critical - they really must get 3 of them for an effective majority of 11.AndyJS said:The Democratic Unionists would have to actively vote against the Tories in the Commons in order to defeat them. If they abstain the Tories have a majority, assuming the 7 Sinn Fein MPs don't take their seats.
Otherwise they'll be at massive risk of losing by-elections.
Thanet South by-election possible for starters.0 -
No. You just don't like the British electorate's decision. The Conservatives under May have totally fucked up.MarqueeMark said:I've decide the British electorate are like Andy from Little Britain's Lou and Andy.
"Want that one"
"Are you sure?"
"Yeah..... [pause] Don't like it"
What a kerfuffle......0 -
And their worst vote share everFrankBooth said:
2nd worst result in their history.not_on_fire said:Lib Dems significantly out performing expectations. At least 12 seats and could have been 15 with a little more luck in Richmond, Ceredigion and Fife NE
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Better!Polruan said:
Full chronology including by-election would be "sacked, back and crack on"MarqueeMark said:Zac back and crack on regardless....
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This is probably going to be the third highest Tory vote ever, after 1992 and 1987.Cookie said:What does the Tory performance in actual votes look like, compared to previous elections? Must be pretty high? If so, Tory problem wasn't persuading people to vote Tory, it was persuading non-voters not to vote Labour.
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Politically it's best for the Tories to hand over power to the "progressive alliance" and watch them cock it up. Not good for the country though.Sunil_Prasannan said:So with 7 Shinners, makes Parliament effectively 643.
643 divided by two and rounded up is 322.0 -
Correct - and at this minute they are on 314 + 10 = 324!Sunil_Prasannan said:So with 7 Shinners, makes Parliament effectively 643.
643 divided by two and rounded up is 322.
Five absolutely critical seats to go.0 -
Morning all
Two Cons on BBC and already they are fighting like cats in a sack.
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MikeL said:
If Con win three of five that's 317
Con 317 + DUP 10 = 327
Opposition 316
Total 343 exc SF
Majority 11
DUP aren't going to let Corbyn and McDonnell anywhere near the levers of power.0 -
Happy to say I got this completely wrong, all a bit of a mess now.
My concern now is what happens with Brexit.
I would imagine Cameron and Osborne have a spring in their step0 -
St Ives result:
Con 22,120
LD 21,808
Lab 7,2980 -
No they're not, but they can still happily knock back specific legislation that the Tories put forward.MarqueeMark said:MikeL said:If Con win three of five that's 317
Con 317 + DUP 10 = 327
Opposition 316
Total 343 exc SF
Majority 11
DUP aren't going to let Corbyn and McDonnell anywhere near the levers of power.0 -
Looks like Conservatives are going to squeak an effective majority after Sinn Fein excluded0
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May 'no intention of resigning'0
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Oh dear. Theresa just go you silly woman.0
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Con Hold St Ives. Close !0
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Shame, another narrow miss for the LDsAndyJS said:St Ives result:
Con 22,120
LD 21,8080 -
McDonnell calls for the LibDems and Greens to back Labour so they can form a minority government. Maths is clearly not his strong point. Good job no-one thinks he should be CoE...0
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Interesting times...Danny565 said:May 'no intention of resigning'
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May ought to go she has lost all credibility, hanging on will be disastrous.0
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Never believe anything until it has been officially denied.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
I imagine they're devastated, although like many of us are trying to make a good thing out of a sh*t sandwich.freetochoose said:Happy to say I got this completely wrong, all a bit of a mess now.
My concern now is what happens with Brexit.
I would imagine Cameron and Osborne have a spring in their step0 -
I think the Tories have missed an overall majority by a tiny number of votes in about 7 seats. Of course you can look at it the other way and focus on the seats they just managed to hold like Richmond Park.0
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+1houndtang said:May ought to go she has lost all credibility, hanging on will be disastrous.
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Hardly what the Tories were hoping for though. The DUP will want a soft Brexit in return for their supportMarqueeMark said:MikeL said:If Con win three of five that's 317
Con 317 + DUP 10 = 327
Opposition 316
Total 343 exc SF
Majority 11
DUP aren't going to let Corbyn and McDonnell anywhere near the levers of power.0 -
Good morning all.
Yesterday I spoiled my ballot paper for the first time in my life. To paraphrase the Simpsons: Worst. Campaign. Ever.
Poor Britain. It needs a great leader and we have a choice between May and Corbyn.0 -
Where are the final seats ?0
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Well of course I don't like their decision! But you can't deny the voters are somewhat fickle. Vote for Cameron. Then bugger up Cameron with Brexit. Then bugger up May when she implements Brexit.JosiasJessop said:
No. You just don't like the British electorate's decision. The Conservatives under May have totally fucked up.MarqueeMark said:I've decide the British electorate are like Andy from Little Britain's Lou and Andy.
"Want that one"
"Are you sure?"
"Yeah..... [pause] Don't like it"
What a kerfuffle......0 -
Still outperformed (some) expectations!FrankBooth said:
2nd worst result in their history.not_on_fire said:Lib Dems significantly out performing expectations. At least 12 seats and could have been 15 with a little more luck in Richmond, Ceredigion and Fife NE
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Cornwall, mostly.Pulpstar said:Where are the final seats ?
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Look at where I was brought up in North Staffs and South Cheshire - Crewe 48, Newcastle under Lyme 30. Incredible!AndyJS said:I think the Tories have missed an overall majority by a tiny number of votes in about 7 seats. Of course you can look at it the other way and focus on the seats they just managed to hold like Richmond Park.
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BBC- TMay has no intention of resigning.0
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On devolved matters?Dadge said:
Yes there's no doubt that the Tories can form a government. But what can that government get done? Especially on devolved matters.MikeL said:If Con win three of five that's 317
Con 317 + DUP 10 = 327
Opposition 316
Total 343 exc SF
Majority 11
It would have a clear majority under the EVFEL mechanism.0 -
I cannot believe Theresa May is going to squat in No.10.
She should resign if she has any honour. She lost an election she called. The public don't have confidence in her. End of story.0 -
Yes - with a handful of seats left to go, Conservative vote total now higher than Labour's in 1997.AndyJS said:
This is probably going to be the third highest Tory vote ever, after 1992 and 1987.Cookie said:What does the Tory performance in actual votes look like, compared to previous elections? Must be pretty high? If so, Tory problem wasn't persuading people to vote Tory, it was persuading non-voters not to vote Labour.
FPTP is a strange beast.0 -
May not resigning but working in a very different way to craft a consensus for a soft Brexit would be the optimum for the country... also bring back the cross party approach on social care and drop the grammar school crap and it might just work...0
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Is the number of results with v small majorities unusual? Seems to be a lot.
Licking my wounds betting-wise. Amongst the killers for me that last PC win. Plus the number of LDs.
Anyway congrats to Mike Smithson on that Con Seats sell (393 was it), to those responsible for the exit poll and to TSE for running the site overnight.0 -
Why would it be in the interests of the Tory Party for May to resign now. If she can get to 319 then the Conservatives are safe for the immediate future. She can go on for a couple of years and then the Conservative party can have a proper leadership campaign to replace her if things don't improve. Replacing the leader from among the MPs without a proper contest would be a disaster, and could lead to an election within 6 months (before the new boundaries have come in).0
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So who would take over? It wouldn't be Corbyn. He wouldn't be able to win a vote of confidence in the Commons. It would have to be a Conservative. Unless there is another coronation, that would plunge the country into several months of uncertainty just as Brexit negotiations start.houndtang said:May ought to go she has lost all credibility, hanging on will be disastrous.
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Oh god, she's going the full Gordon Brown,old_labour said:BBC- TMay has no intention of resigning.
The men in grey suits will have called by the end of the day and prized her out by her fingernails.0 -
The issue of the NI/Republic border is going to be taking up about 90% of the time of the Brexit team. Hardly ideal. And yes, they will be wanting a soft Brexit to implement what is best for NI.not_on_fire said:
Hardly what the Tories were hoping for though. The DUP will want a soft Brexit in return for their supportMarqueeMark said:MikeL said:If Con win three of five that's 317
Con 317 + DUP 10 = 327
Opposition 316
Total 343 exc SF
Majority 11
DUP aren't going to let Corbyn and McDonnell anywhere near the levers of power.0 -
I have £500 on North Cornwall so I'm hoping for no shocks there !MarqueeMark said:
Cornwall, mostly.Pulpstar said:Where are the final seats ?
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Narrow Tory misses:
Perth & North Perthshire: 21 votes.
Dudley North: 22 votes.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: 30 votes.
Crewe & Nantwich: 48 votes.0 -
Weak PM that's gonna work.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Hear hear - I voted Leave, UKIP in 2015. This is the right approach. Let Corbyn try to enforce CND and mandatory deselections at conference. The polls will do the rest.Rexel56 said:May not resigning but working in a very different way to craft a consensus for a soft Brexit would be the optimum for the country... also bring back the cross party approach on social care and drop the grammar school crap and it might just work...
Finally and most importantly - cling on for the full 5 year term. Essential for debt reduction, reducing rail subsidies, coal phaseout, etc. etc.0 -
Up against hard brexit Tories and Jeremy Corbyn? Remain is dead in the water.OldKingCole said:
Still outperformed (some) expectations!FrankBooth said:
2nd worst result in their history.not_on_fire said:Lib Dems significantly out performing expectations. At least 12 seats and could have been 15 with a little more luck in Richmond, Ceredigion and Fife NE
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Wait for the U-turn!OUT said:
Weak PM that's gonna work.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
One particular group has been conspicuous by their absence here...0
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It looks like they were able to convince, wrongly, in many cases, that they were the best placed party to displace the SNP. This worked against Labour and Lib Dems in seats they would otherwise have won. The SNP were lucky not to lose more seats.Chris_from_Paris said:SCON now have more MPs than SLAB and SLD combined for the first time since 1931
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Oh come on. The Europhobes said everything would be better under Brexit; even things that are not in the purview of the EU. That isn't going to be delivered, basically because most of the problems are our responsibility, and the failures are ours.MarqueeMark said:
Well of course I don't like their decision! But you can't deny the voters are somewhat fickle. Vote for Cameron. Then bugger up Cameron with Brexit. Then bugger up May when she implements Brexit.JosiasJessop said:
No. You just don't like the British electorate's decision. The Conservatives under May have totally fucked up.MarqueeMark said:I've decide the British electorate are like Andy from Little Britain's Lou and Andy.
"Want that one"
"Are you sure?"
"Yeah..... [pause] Don't like it"
What a kerfuffle......
The europhobes are utterly responsible for this. They had winners on their side, and they replace them with the B-reserve team, who were taken to a draw by Accrington Stanley.0 -
3 narrow losses for the Lib Dems too. MI5 at work?AndyJS said:Narrow Tory misses:
Perth & North Perthshire: 21 votes.
Dudley North: 22 votes.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: 30 votes.
Crewe & Nantwich: 48 votes.0 -
Labour candidate has declared victory in Kensington.
If confirmed, final count is 318 seats for the Tories.0 -
That all sounds very good, but does she have the authority to do it? I am all for this kind of approach, I just worry her party is not behind her.Pauly said:
Hear hear - I voted Leave, UKIP in 2015. This is the right approach. Let Corbyn try to enforce CND and mandatory deselections at conference. The polls will do the rest.Rexel56 said:May not resigning but working in a very different way to craft a consensus for a soft Brexit would be the optimum for the country... also bring back the cross party approach on social care and drop the grammar school crap and it might just work...
Finally and most importantly - cling on for the full 5 year term. Essential for debt reduction, reducing rail subsidies, coal phaseout, etc. etc.
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Weak and unstable on Brexit.OUT said:
Weak PM that's gonna work.ThreeQuidder said:
God help those of us trapped in the UK.0 -
isnt stormont a crisis waiting to erupt too?MarqueeMark said:
The issue of the NI/Republic border is going to be taking up about 90% of the time of the Brexit team. Hardly ideal. And yes, they will be wanting a soft Brexit to implement what is best for NI.not_on_fire said:
Hardly what the Tories were hoping for though. The DUP will want a soft Brexit in return for their supportMarqueeMark said:MikeL said:If Con win three of five that's 317
Con 317 + DUP 10 = 327
Opposition 316
Total 343 exc SF
Majority 11
DUP aren't going to let Corbyn and McDonnell anywhere near the levers of power.0 -
Which dribbling moron claimed Witney had gone LD?0
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Morning, everyone.
Running through the results. In betting terms, England poor to dire, Scotland super, overall numbers good for Lib Dems/UKIP, bad for the Conservatives.
Glad the Lib Dems got 12 because I backed them to be over 11.5 at 1.83.
Got up at half four or so to see how things were going. Saw the winner's speech of the chap who beat Salmond, so that was something.
Trying to see the positives of such a hopelessly Hung Parliament. Maybe we'll be spared the economic insanity of Corbyn and the authoritarian meddling of May.
Commiserations to Mr. Price, whose efforts were undone by the insanity of Timothy/May.
Edited extra bit: frustrated that the Lib Dems managed to win Westmorland by a tiny margin but lose Richmond Park likewise. The other way around would've been much better.
Think I'm ahead overall. Thanks everyone for the tips, particularly Mr. Putney and Mr. Pulpstar.0 -
How many seats did Labour win in Scotland?0
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Richmond Park is the one that springs to mind. There are a few others but I can't remember them at the moment. Time for a bit of rest.MikeL said:
What about close wins?AndyJS said:Narrow Tory misses:
Perth & North Perthshire: 21 votes.
Dudley North: 22 votes.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: 30 votes.
Crewe & Nantwich: 48 votes.0 -
Lol - one wonders where some of the more outlandish rumours came from last night.waitingfortonight said:Which dribbling moron claimed Witney had gone LD?
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And you guys were worried about abuse from MomentumDadge said:
JJ's putting it more strongly than I would, but the arrogant underestimate how much they are resented.JosiasJessop said:
Nah, not really. You're mostly insulated from the shit that's about to fall on us.Charles said:
Excuse me, but that was rather uncalled for.JosiasJessop said:Let Corbyn reign.
The people want change. That's obvious from Brexit and this election, even if the idiots screeching for change over the EU did not realise it.
Let him fuck up. The alternative is to let a wounded Conservative party fester on like a particularly odorous zombie.
Oh, and let the Brexiteers who are rucking off or have resources abroad - like MaxPB, Charles and sadly RCS - pay the consequences of their folly.
So many people need to look up the definition of 'conservative'.
Witness the 200 million you were willing seen spent on the Garden Bridge to help the local poor urchins (ahem). You'll just piss off abroad; and even if you do not, you can afford the tax advisers to ensure you and your kids are sorted.
I cannot. I'll pay for your folly.0 -
Thanks for all your work - I think Con had some other wins by under 100.AndyJS said:
Richmond Park is the one that springs to mind. There are a few others but I can't remember them at the moment. Time for a bit of rest.MikeL said:
What about close wins?AndyJS said:Narrow Tory misses:
Perth & North Perthshire: 21 votes.
Dudley North: 22 votes.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: 30 votes.
Crewe & Nantwich: 48 votes.0 -
Will Theresa May announce she is going to build a wall and the Republic of Ireland will pay for it?0
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They like a bribe - but they aint going to get it0
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Hard to tell, it's been a waterfall of dribbles since 10pm last night.waitingfortonight said:Which dribbling moron claimed Witney had gone LD?
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It is a risk. If I was May I'd sack my two special advisors and replace them with an advisory council of tory elders [Ken Clarke, John Redwood, 1922 Chair, Oliver Letwin, ...]numbertwelve said:
That all sounds very good, but does she have the authority to do it? I am all for this kind of approach, I just worry her party is not behind her.Pauly said:
Hear hear - I voted Leave, UKIP in 2015. This is the right approach. Let Corbyn try to enforce CND and mandatory deselections at conference. The polls will do the rest.Rexel56 said:May not resigning but working in a very different way to craft a consensus for a soft Brexit would be the optimum for the country... also bring back the cross party approach on social care and drop the grammar school crap and it might just work...
Finally and most importantly - cling on for the full 5 year term. Essential for debt reduction, reducing rail subsidies, coal phaseout, etc. etc.
A clear admission of campaign failure but a lesson learned.0 -
Scotland seats:SouthamObserver said:How many seats did Labour win in Scotland?
SNP 35
Con 13
Lab 7
LD 40 -
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TM is toast regardless.0
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Didn't stand.HaroldO said:0 -
BBC says there'll be another recount in Kensington later today. But Labour candidate confident.0
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PB Myths busted last night
- ICM are the gold standard
- 18-24 year olds don't vote
- All UKIP voters are Tories on holiday
- Lynton Crosby knows what he's doing
- The electorate wants Hard Brexit0
