politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the 2017 general election killed Scottish nationalism ston
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As mentioned, Newcastle-U-L going to a recount with Lab ahead by 19 votes.nunu said:AndreaParma_82 said:Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme
they did ok in the midlands in the end.AndreaParma_82 said:Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme
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@BBCNormanS: IDS appeals to Tory MPs not to go on the media and speculate about Mrs May's position #BBCelection2017
IDS can GTF-1 -
Isn't the trouble that they only meant it this time?NickPalmer said:A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
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Against 322 yes, 326 no.Danny565 said:All the tight calls are going Tory
Still think they could squeak a majority.0 -
68 to declare 47needed for majority. I'll assume unless told otherwise that ain't happening.
Finchers retained after all.0 -
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Wakefield Lab Hold, sorry David Herdson but you can't polish a turd. And rolling a turd in glitter fools no-one.0
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NE Fife might be ready to declare soon after 1st recount LDs were ahead by 2 on SNP0
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Brown was behind both seats and votes.Paristonda said:Wasn't Gordon Brown labelled a squatter after failing to win a majority? May should just go, not hang about.
Not applicable in this situation0 -
Davis, bizarrely, might actually be the unity candidate now.Casino_Royale said:I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.
He is basically the only one of the old guard left....0 -
My main concern right now is how Skybet pays out on PM after the next UK GE.
Strictly speaking, it ends in a few hours, and May might go a few hours later or next week.
Which means I could lose my 50/1 and 100/1 bets by a matter of hours.0 -
Yes2AV had a campaign?!AlastairMeeks said:
Hillary Clinton's.MaxPB said:As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
Yes2AV0 -
Am I right in thinking that other than North Down (which is a bit Home Counties) all the NI MPs are Shinners or DUP ?Lucian_Fletcher said:
I'm too tired and emotional (not a euphemism in this case) to think about it. Right now, I'm considering moving to Australia.MyBurningEars said:
Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.Lucian_Fletcher said:If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.
I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.
What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
We have a lot of thinking to do. I can't see a long term future for Unionism if it is dependent on the DUP entirely. They will never win over enough Catholic or non religious people to keep the Union safe. We are effectively admitting that the Union will survive until the current primary school kids can vote.0 -
Tbh, he's just saying "do it on WhatsApp and then let's have a coronation".Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: IDS appeals to Tory MPs not to go on the media and speculate about Mrs May's position #BBCelection2017
IDS can GTF0 -
Looks like Wales will be Lib Dem free zone0
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Clinton's was certainly a much larger waste of money.KentRising said:
Yes2AV had a campaign?!AlastairMeeks said:
Hillary Clinton's.MaxPB said:As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
Yes2AV0 -
What evidence to the contrary?GeoffM said:
Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."
She called an early, unnecessary election on a Presidential campaign about how important and good she was - then flunked out of the Presidential debates that have become a feature of recent elections.
It was weak, weak, weak. The country doesn't respect cowards.0 -
There's no comparison between the parliamentary arithmetic in those two different scenarios.Paristonda said:Wasn't Gordon Brown labelled a squatter after failing to win a majority? May should just go, not hang about.
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Yeah.Casino_Royale said:I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.
But, there the FPTA still exists, it hasn't been repealed.0 -
You're suggesting she engaged with the country and still failed?GeoffM said:
Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."
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What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?MaxPB said:As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
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After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.0
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Except as RobD points out, that might not be true next time. Last time people said they would vote and didn't. This time they did.NickPalmer said:A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
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One thing is for certain: this is a disastrous result for the hardcore Europhobes within the Conservative party.
Once more I need to educate them: eurosceptic != europhobe.0 -
There's no time.The_Apocalypse said:After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.
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Davis seems the best out of that lot, bit too early for Ruth.Casino_Royale said:I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.0 -
And yet we have no time for an election either. A conundrum.The_Apocalypse said:After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.
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Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.0
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Of course. EU16. GE17. The Tories always put party before country. They would destroy the latter if it meant they could preside over nothing. Let the games commence!Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: IDS appeals to Tory MPs not to go on the media and speculate about Mrs May's position #BBCelection2017
IDS can GTF0 -
He is also the most on his brief when it comes to Brexit, so wouldn't have to bone up....Mortimer said:
Davis, bizarrely, might actually be the unity candidate now.Casino_Royale said:I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.
He is basically the only one of the old guard left....0 -
Sad looking Amber Rudd in Hastings. I thinks she's gone.
No, She wins !!0 -
Yes, that was the finding of Prosser we discussed here the other day based on BES and it does seem to be borne out tonight. People who say they will vote, generally do. And for the pollsters -- those who won't vote probably don't take part in opinion polls either.NickPalmer said:A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
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@MarcusDysch: Tories hold country's two seats with largest Jewish communities - Hendon, and Finchley and Golders Green. @JewishLabour candidates defeated0
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Tewkesbury of gain etc left field....0
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Con hold Harrow East.
Enfield Southgate to Labour
Keighley is another Lab gain0 -
They need a good, shiny salesman.The_Apocalypse said:After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.
Someone like Cameron. Or Osborne.
Bugger. 0 -
The majority in DerbysNE was nearly 3,000.nunu said:AndreaParma_82 said:Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme
they did ok in the midlands in the end.AndreaParma_82 said:Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme
In Copeland, DerbysNE, Mansfield and NewcastleUL they've won seats they haven't held since before WW2.
And I think that applies to Walsall N as well.
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Yes, flunking the debates simply showed contempt for the electorate. She thought she didn't need to do them. She was wrong.Philip_Thompson said:
What evidence to the contrary?GeoffM said:
Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."
She called an early, unnecessary election on a Presidential campaign about how important and good she was - then flunked out of the Presidential debates that have become a feature of recent elections.
It was weak, weak, weak. The country doesn't respect cowards.0 -
SheeeeetAlastairMeeks said:Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.
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Lib Dems gain Tewksbury0
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The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to beAndyJS said:
What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?MaxPB said:As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
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Oddly, the shinners doing well helps the Tories.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Against 322 yes, 326 no.Danny565 said:All the tight calls are going Tory
Still think they could squeak a majority.0 -
LD gain Tewkesbury, that wasn't talked about much.0
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Enfield Southgate gone. Not quite the Portillo moment this time!0
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Hastings result coming up0
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Labour hold Wakefield.0
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Labour 25,322 Rudd less than that!0
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Rudd survives. Phew0
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Amber Rudd holds by 346 votes.0
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Fuck yes! Rudd holds on!0
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Amber is still in the Commons!0
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Yes Amber!0
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Hastings - Rudd survives.0
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AMBER WINS!0
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Lab gains from Con still coming in, so it seems likely.AlastairMeeks said:Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.
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Rudd, just0
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Amber Rudd holds on.0
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Rudd holds. Wow.0
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Rudd scrapes in0
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Rudd PM on Saturday0
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You are projecting your own views onto posters you politically disagree with, and doing so with personal digs, and a high degree of petulance.JosiasJessop said:
As I've insinuated tonight, is that really somewhere you want to go? Someone who retracted a job offer I'd never asked for? To your credit, you privately apologised profusely for that.Casino_Royale said:
Why are you being so rude to everyone tonight?JosiasJessop said:
All the Europhobes have done is make Corbyn a God.Danny565 said:Labour now officially exceeded their 2015 seats total.
Do you realise how you're coming across?
You need to consider the position of 'ordinary' people. You are too EU obsessed. Much more is in the purview of the UK's parliament than in the EU's, and 'ordinary' people realise that.
Hence this result. You should have listened.
But at least you can escape abroad. I cannot.
I think when you sober up (and have a rest) you will regret this.
I won't engage with it any longer.0 -
Amber reelected just0
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So close.0
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YES!Big_G_NorthWales said:Amber reelected
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Rudd reelected. Not unhappy about that, she's been pretty good overall.0
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It seems the pollsters got the Conservative vote correct, but not the Labour vote. And the Conservative vote wasn't quite efficiently distributed to deliver a majority (44/40 can deliver a big majority).NickPalmer said:A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
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Oh thank god0
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Some good news.....0
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Whoosh. Rudd clings on.0
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Forever Amber!0
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Another Tory holds on...this fptp is so shit. Would never get 50% of the vote.0
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That's awful, just abominably awful that that horrible woman Amber Augusta Rudd is back. Worst moment of the night for me by far.0
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Amber Rudd by the tiniest of margins0
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Lab gain Keighley by 249 votes.0
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Yes. And the DUP will win North Down by a landslide when Lady Sylvia goes. Right I must go homePaulM said:
Am I right in thinking that other than North Down (which is a bit Home Counties) all the NI MPs are Shinners or DUP ?Lucian_Fletcher said:
I'm too tired and emotional (not a euphemism in this case) to think about it. Right now, I'm considering moving to Australia.MyBurningEars said:
Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.Lucian_Fletcher said:If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.
I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.
What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
We have a lot of thinking to do. I can't see a long term future for Unionism if it is dependent on the DUP entirely. They will never win over enough Catholic or non religious people to keep the Union safe. We are effectively admitting that the Union will survive until the current primary school kids can vote.
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@Bencjacobs: This feels a lot like the US in 2016. Any other Labour candidate but Corbyn would have beat May. Any Tory besides May would have beat Corbyn0
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Good.Casino_Royale said:Whoosh. Rudd clings on.
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May will win the popular vote like Hillary but also most seats too whereas Hillary did not win most states in the electoral collegeRobD said:
Clinton's was certainly a much larger waste of money.KentRising said:
Yes2AV had a campaign?!AlastairMeeks said:
Hillary Clinton's.MaxPB said:As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
Yes2AV0 -
Cough....hunchman said:Labour 25,322 Rudd less than that!
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Amber Rudd won by about 3000
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Tories now need to opt for Rudd as their leader.0
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I doubt it, she's got city skeletons in her closet.RochdalePioneers said:Rudd PM on Saturday
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I'd add a final one: not making a positive case for why anyone should vote Tory.IanB2 said:
5) relentless negative campaigning and hyperbolic attacks on CorbynDavidL said:
4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.TheScreamingEagles said:The Tory fuck ups
1) May backing Fox hunting
2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test
6) vacating the field for two weeks and assuming labour would suffer from all the publicity
7) calling an election to ask a question about style not substance. Which the public didn't want to answer.
Plus on no. 6 they utterly failed to make the case for why Corbyn's toxic associations mattered. So people discounted the attacks.
It seems to me that the electorate have punished parties in power - hence the SNP and Tory losses.
Anyone but Boris for me for the Tory leadership. He is not serious and the EU do not take him seriously.
Our approach to Brexit is going to have to be rethought as well.0 -
Con hold Sherwood by 331.0
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Mm? You need 326 for a majority and they're looking to be on 310-320 at the moment. DUP adds 10. Shinners don't take seats. They must think Tories will be down to 300 or so in that scenario?AlastairMeeks said:Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.
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I have the same question about Betfair:Casino_Royale said:My main concern right now is how Skybet pays out on PM after the next UK GE.
Strictly speaking, it ends in a few hours, and May might go a few hours later or next week.
Which means I could lose my 50/1 and 100/1 bets by a matter of hours.
"This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
I struggle to see how this can be settled in any way other than May. The Tories can't pick a new leader quickly enough, so surely May will be the first PM, even if only for a few weeks.0 -
NoParistonda said:
You're suggesting she engaged with the country and still failed?GeoffM said:
Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."
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The voters chose populism on 23rd June. Boris should've been chosen then.HYUFD said:
The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to beAndyJS said:
What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?MaxPB said:As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
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Good lord. Frankly it's difficult to make any sense of some of these result ....ThreeQuidder said:LD gain Tewkesbury, that wasn't talked about much.
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Lab hold Wakefield :-(0
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Lab hold Wakefield.0
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Agreed. Corbyn thinks he can use lies, bribes, and unicorns to charm a nation, but he's nothing compared to Boris. Time to fight populist fire with populist fire.HYUFD said:
The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to beAndyJS said:
What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?MaxPB said:As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
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Sky: Con 315-321. Con+DUP enough.0
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54to declare, Tories short by 37. Yeah, not happening.0
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BBC just flashed Tewkesbury as Con hold...0
