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  • nunu said:

    Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme

    Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme

    they did ok in the midlands in the end.
    As mentioned, Newcastle-U-L going to a recount with Lab ahead by 19 votes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: IDS appeals to Tory MPs not to go on the media and speculate about Mrs May's position #BBCelection2017

    IDS can GTF
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...

    Isn't the trouble that they only meant it this time?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Danny565 said:

    All the tight calls are going Tory :(

    Still think they could squeak a majority.

    Against 322 yes, 326 no.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    68 to declare 47needed for majority. I'll assume unless told otherwise that ain't happening.

    Finchers retained after all.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Sadly not.
    No proper preparation
    No attention to detail
    No positive vision

    and a willingness to crap all over your natural supporters.

  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Wakefield Lab Hold, sorry David Herdson but you can't polish a turd. And rolling a turd in glitter fools no-one.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    NE Fife might be ready to declare soon after 1st recount LDs were ahead by 2 on SNP
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981

    Wasn't Gordon Brown labelled a squatter after failing to win a majority? May should just go, not hang about.

    Brown was behind both seats and votes.

    Not applicable in this situation
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.

    Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.

    Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.

    2 years. Further election.

    Davis, bizarrely, might actually be the unity candidate now.

    He is basically the only one of the old guard left....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    My main concern right now is how Skybet pays out on PM after the next UK GE.

    Strictly speaking, it ends in a few hours, and May might go a few hours later or next week.

    Which means I could lose my 50/1 and 100/1 bets by a matter of hours.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Hillary Clinton's.

    Yes2AV
    Yes2AV had a campaign?!
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.

    I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.

    Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.

    What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
    I'm too tired and emotional (not a euphemism in this case) to think about it. Right now, I'm considering moving to Australia.

    We have a lot of thinking to do. I can't see a long term future for Unionism if it is dependent on the DUP entirely. They will never win over enough Catholic or non religious people to keep the Union safe. We are effectively admitting that the Union will survive until the current primary school kids can vote.
    Am I right in thinking that other than North Down (which is a bit Home Counties) all the NI MPs are Shinners or DUP ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Saltire said:

    NE Fife might be ready to declare soon after 1st recount LDs were ahead by 2 on SNP

    Blimey. Well, surely you ask for a second recount when its that close?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: IDS appeals to Tory MPs not to go on the media and speculate about Mrs May's position #BBCelection2017

    IDS can GTF

    Tbh, he's just saying "do it on WhatsApp and then let's have a coronation".
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Looks like Wales will be Lib Dem free zone
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Hillary Clinton's.

    Yes2AV
    Yes2AV had a campaign?!
    Clinton's was certainly a much larger waste of money.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."

    Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
    What evidence to the contrary?

    She called an early, unnecessary election on a Presidential campaign about how important and good she was - then flunked out of the Presidential debates that have become a feature of recent elections.

    It was weak, weak, weak. The country doesn't respect cowards.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Wasn't Gordon Brown labelled a squatter after failing to win a majority? May should just go, not hang about.

    There's no comparison between the parliamentary arithmetic in those two different scenarios.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981

    I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.

    Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.

    Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.

    2 years. Further election.

    Yeah.

    But, there the FPTA still exists, it hasn't been repealed.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."

    Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
    You're suggesting she engaged with the country and still failed?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...

    Except as RobD points out, that might not be true next time. Last time people said they would vote and didn't. This time they did.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,546
    One thing is for certain: this is a disastrous result for the hardcore Europhobes within the Conservative party.

    Once more I need to educate them: eurosceptic != europhobe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    marke09 said:

    Looks like Wales will be Lib Dem free zone

    Shame.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.

    There's no time.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.

    Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.

    Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.

    2 years. Further election.

    Davis seems the best out of that lot, bit too early for Ruth.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.

    And yet we have no time for an election either. A conundrum.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: IDS appeals to Tory MPs not to go on the media and speculate about Mrs May's position #BBCelection2017

    IDS can GTF

    Of course. EU16. GE17. The Tories always put party before country. They would destroy the latter if it meant they could preside over nothing. Let the games commence!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Mortimer said:

    I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.

    Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.

    Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.

    2 years. Further election.

    Davis, bizarrely, might actually be the unity candidate now.

    He is basically the only one of the old guard left....
    He is also the most on his brief when it comes to Brexit, so wouldn't have to bone up....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    Sad looking Amber Rudd in Hastings. I thinks she's gone.

    No, She wins !!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...

    Yes, that was the finding of Prosser we discussed here the other day based on BES and it does seem to be borne out tonight. People who say they will vote, generally do. And for the pollsters -- those who won't vote probably don't take part in opinion polls either.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    kle4 said:

    Saltire said:

    NE Fife might be ready to declare soon after 1st recount LDs were ahead by 2 on SNP

    Blimey. Well, surely you ask for a second recount when its that close?
    That is the 2nd recount
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MarcusDysch: Tories hold country's two seats with largest Jewish communities - Hendon, and Finchley and Golders Green. @JewishLabour candidates defeated
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tewkesbury of gain etc left field....
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con hold Harrow East.

    Enfield Southgate to Labour

    Keighley is another Lab gain
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    nunu said:

    Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme

    Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme

    they did ok in the midlands in the end.
    The majority in DerbysNE was nearly 3,000.

    In Copeland, DerbysNE, Mansfield and NewcastleUL they've won seats they haven't held since before WW2.

    And I think that applies to Walsall N as well.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,546

    After May, the Conservatives cannot afford to have a coronation.

    They need a good, shiny salesman.

    Someone like Cameron. Or Osborne.

    Bugger. :(
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."

    Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
    What evidence to the contrary?

    She called an early, unnecessary election on a Presidential campaign about how important and good she was - then flunked out of the Presidential debates that have become a feature of recent elections.

    It was weak, weak, weak. The country doesn't respect cowards.
    Yes, flunking the debates simply showed contempt for the electorate. She thought she didn't need to do them. She was wrong.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.

    Sheeeeet
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    Lib Dems gain Tewksbury
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
    The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Danny565 said:

    All the tight calls are going Tory :(

    Still think they could squeak a majority.

    Against 322 yes, 326 no.
    Oddly, the shinners doing well helps the Tories.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    LD gain Tewkesbury, that wasn't talked about much.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Enfield Southgate gone. Not quite the Portillo moment this time!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Hastings result coming up
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Labour hold Wakefield.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Rudd survives. Phew
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Labour 25,322 Rudd less than that!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amber Rudd holds by 346 votes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Fuck yes! Rudd holds on!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Yes Amber!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Amber is still in the Commons!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Hastings - Rudd survives.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    AMBER WINS!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.

    Lab gains from Con still coming in, so it seems likely.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Rudd, just
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    Amber Rudd holds on.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Rudd holds. Wow.
  • Rudd scrapes in
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    Rudd PM on Saturday
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    NI21
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    Danny565 said:

    Labour now officially exceeded their 2015 seats total.

    All the Europhobes have done is make Corbyn a God.
    Why are you being so rude to everyone tonight?

    Do you realise how you're coming across?
    As I've insinuated tonight, is that really somewhere you want to go? Someone who retracted a job offer I'd never asked for? To your credit, you privately apologised profusely for that.

    You need to consider the position of 'ordinary' people. You are too EU obsessed. Much more is in the purview of the UK's parliament than in the EU's, and 'ordinary' people realise that.

    Hence this result. You should have listened.

    But at least you can escape abroad. I cannot.
    You are projecting your own views onto posters you politically disagree with, and doing so with personal digs, and a high degree of petulance.

    I think when you sober up (and have a rest) you will regret this.

    I won't engage with it any longer.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited June 2017
    Amber reelected just
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    So close.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Amber reelected

    YES!
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Rudd reelected. Not unhappy about that, she's been pretty good overall.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...

    It seems the pollsters got the Conservative vote correct, but not the Labour vote. And the Conservative vote wasn't quite efficiently distributed to deliver a majority (44/40 can deliver a big majority).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Oh thank god
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Some good news.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    Whoosh. Rudd clings on.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Forever Amber!
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Another Tory holds on...this fptp is so shit. Would never get 50% of the vote.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    That's awful, just abominably awful that that horrible woman Amber Augusta Rudd is back. Worst moment of the night for me by far.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Amber Rudd by the tiniest of margins
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited June 2017
    Lab gain Keighley by 249 votes.
  • PaulM said:

    If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.

    I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.

    Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.

    What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
    I'm too tired and emotional (not a euphemism in this case) to think about it. Right now, I'm considering moving to Australia.

    We have a lot of thinking to do. I can't see a long term future for Unionism if it is dependent on the DUP entirely. They will never win over enough Catholic or non religious people to keep the Union safe. We are effectively admitting that the Union will survive until the current primary school kids can vote.
    Am I right in thinking that other than North Down (which is a bit Home Counties) all the NI MPs are Shinners or DUP ?
    Yes. And the DUP will win North Down by a landslide when Lady Sylvia goes. Right I must go home
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Bencjacobs: This feels a lot like the US in 2016. Any other Labour candidate but Corbyn would have beat May. Any Tory besides May would have beat Corbyn
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,546

    Whoosh. Rudd clings on.

    Good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Hillary Clinton's.

    Yes2AV
    Yes2AV had a campaign?!
    Clinton's was certainly a much larger waste of money.
    May will win the popular vote like Hillary but also most seats too whereas Hillary did not win most states in the electoral college
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    hunchman said:

    Labour 25,322 Rudd less than that!

    Cough....
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Amber Rudd won by about 300
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Tories now need to opt for Rudd as their leader.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Rudd PM on Saturday

    I doubt it, she's got city skeletons in her closet.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
    5) relentless negative campaigning and hyperbolic attacks on Corbyn
    6) vacating the field for two weeks and assuming labour would suffer from all the publicity
    7) calling an election to ask a question about style not substance. Which the public didn't want to answer.
    I'd add a final one: not making a positive case for why anyone should vote Tory.

    Plus on no. 6 they utterly failed to make the case for why Corbyn's toxic associations mattered. So people discounted the attacks.

    It seems to me that the electorate have punished parties in power - hence the SNP and Tory losses.

    Anyone but Boris for me for the Tory leadership. He is not serious and the EU do not take him seriously.

    Our approach to Brexit is going to have to be rethought as well.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Con hold Sherwood by 331.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    My main concern right now is how Skybet pays out on PM after the next UK GE.

    Strictly speaking, it ends in a few hours, and May might go a few hours later or next week.

    Which means I could lose my 50/1 and 100/1 bets by a matter of hours.

    I have the same question about Betfair:

    "This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."

    I struggle to see how this can be settled in any way other than May. The Tories can't pick a new leader quickly enough, so surely May will be the first PM, even if only for a few weeks.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited June 2017

    Survation think Con+DUP won't be enough.

    Mm? You need 326 for a majority and they're looking to be on 310-320 at the moment. DUP adds 10. Shinners don't take seats. They must think Tories will be down to 300 or so in that scenario?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
    The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
    The voters chose populism on 23rd June. Boris should've been chosen then.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."

    Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
    You're suggesting she engaged with the country and still failed?
    No
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    LD gain Tewkesbury, that wasn't talked about much.

    Good lord. Frankly it's difficult to make any sense of some of these result .... :astonished:
  • Lab hold Wakefield :-(
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab hold Wakefield.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
    The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
    Agreed. Corbyn thinks he can use lies, bribes, and unicorns to charm a nation, but he's nothing compared to Boris. Time to fight populist fire with populist fire.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Sky: Con 315-321. Con+DUP enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    54to declare, Tories short by 37. Yeah, not happening.
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    BBC just flashed Tewkesbury as Con hold...
This discussion has been closed.