A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
Isn't the trouble that they only meant it this time?
I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.
Davis, bizarrely, might actually be the unity candidate now.
He is basically the only one of the old guard left....
If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.
I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.
Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.
What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
I'm too tired and emotional (not a euphemism in this case) to think about it. Right now, I'm considering moving to Australia.
We have a lot of thinking to do. I can't see a long term future for Unionism if it is dependent on the DUP entirely. They will never win over enough Catholic or non religious people to keep the Union safe. We are effectively admitting that the Union will survive until the current primary school kids can vote.
Am I right in thinking that other than North Down (which is a bit Home Counties) all the NI MPs are Shinners or DUP ?
@paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."
Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
What evidence to the contrary?
She called an early, unnecessary election on a Presidential campaign about how important and good she was - then flunked out of the Presidential debates that have become a feature of recent elections.
It was weak, weak, weak. The country doesn't respect cowards.
I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.
Yeah.
But, there the FPTA still exists, it hasn't been repealed.
As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
Except as RobD points out, that might not be true next time. Last time people said they would vote and didn't. This time they did.
I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.
Davis seems the best out of that lot, bit too early for Ruth.
@BBCNormanS: IDS appeals to Tory MPs not to go on the media and speculate about Mrs May's position #BBCelection2017
IDS can GTF
Of course. EU16. GE17. The Tories always put party before country. They would destroy the latter if it meant they could preside over nothing. Let the games commence!
I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.
Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.
Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.
2 years. Further election.
Davis, bizarrely, might actually be the unity candidate now.
He is basically the only one of the old guard left....
He is also the most on his brief when it comes to Brexit, so wouldn't have to bone up....
A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
Yes, that was the finding of Prosser we discussed here the other day based on BES and it does seem to be borne out tonight. People who say they will vote, generally do. And for the pollsters -- those who won't vote probably don't take part in opinion polls either.
@MarcusDysch: Tories hold country's two seats with largest Jewish communities - Hendon, and Finchley and Golders Green. @JewishLabour candidates defeated
@paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."
Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
What evidence to the contrary?
She called an early, unnecessary election on a Presidential campaign about how important and good she was - then flunked out of the Presidential debates that have become a feature of recent elections.
It was weak, weak, weak. The country doesn't respect cowards.
Yes, flunking the debates simply showed contempt for the electorate. She thought she didn't need to do them. She was wrong.
As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
Labour now officially exceeded their 2015 seats total.
All the Europhobes have done is make Corbyn a God.
Why are you being so rude to everyone tonight?
Do you realise how you're coming across?
As I've insinuated tonight, is that really somewhere you want to go? Someone who retracted a job offer I'd never asked for? To your credit, you privately apologised profusely for that.
You need to consider the position of 'ordinary' people. You are too EU obsessed. Much more is in the purview of the UK's parliament than in the EU's, and 'ordinary' people realise that.
Hence this result. You should have listened.
But at least you can escape abroad. I cannot.
You are projecting your own views onto posters you politically disagree with, and doing so with personal digs, and a high degree of petulance.
I think when you sober up (and have a rest) you will regret this.
A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
It seems the pollsters got the Conservative vote correct, but not the Labour vote. And the Conservative vote wasn't quite efficiently distributed to deliver a majority (44/40 can deliver a big majority).
If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.
I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.
Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.
What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
I'm too tired and emotional (not a euphemism in this case) to think about it. Right now, I'm considering moving to Australia.
We have a lot of thinking to do. I can't see a long term future for Unionism if it is dependent on the DUP entirely. They will never win over enough Catholic or non religious people to keep the Union safe. We are effectively admitting that the Union will survive until the current primary school kids can vote.
Am I right in thinking that other than North Down (which is a bit Home Counties) all the NI MPs are Shinners or DUP ?
Yes. And the DUP will win North Down by a landslide when Lady Sylvia goes. Right I must go home
@Bencjacobs: This feels a lot like the US in 2016. Any other Labour candidate but Corbyn would have beat May. Any Tory besides May would have beat Corbyn
1) May backing Fox hunting 2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned 3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test
4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
5) relentless negative campaigning and hyperbolic attacks on Corbyn 6) vacating the field for two weeks and assuming labour would suffer from all the publicity 7) calling an election to ask a question about style not substance. Which the public didn't want to answer.
I'd add a final one: not making a positive case for why anyone should vote Tory.
Plus on no. 6 they utterly failed to make the case for why Corbyn's toxic associations mattered. So people discounted the attacks.
It seems to me that the electorate have punished parties in power - hence the SNP and Tory losses.
Anyone but Boris for me for the Tory leadership. He is not serious and the EU do not take him seriously.
Our approach to Brexit is going to have to be rethought as well.
My main concern right now is how Skybet pays out on PM after the next UK GE.
Strictly speaking, it ends in a few hours, and May might go a few hours later or next week.
Which means I could lose my 50/1 and 100/1 bets by a matter of hours.
I have the same question about Betfair:
"This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
I struggle to see how this can be settled in any way other than May. The Tories can't pick a new leader quickly enough, so surely May will be the first PM, even if only for a few weeks.
Mm? You need 326 for a majority and they're looking to be on 310-320 at the moment. DUP adds 10. Shinners don't take seats. They must think Tories will be down to 300 or so in that scenario?
As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
The voters chose populism on 23rd June. Boris should've been chosen then.
As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
Agreed. Corbyn thinks he can use lies, bribes, and unicorns to charm a nation, but he's nothing compared to Boris. Time to fight populist fire with populist fire.
Comments
IDS can GTF
Finchers retained after all.
No attention to detail
No positive vision
and a willingness to crap all over your natural supporters.
Not applicable in this situation
He is basically the only one of the old guard left....
Strictly speaking, it ends in a few hours, and May might go a few hours later or next week.
Which means I could lose my 50/1 and 100/1 bets by a matter of hours.
She called an early, unnecessary election on a Presidential campaign about how important and good she was - then flunked out of the Presidential debates that have become a feature of recent elections.
It was weak, weak, weak. The country doesn't respect cowards.
But, there the FPTA still exists, it hasn't been repealed.
Once more I need to educate them: eurosceptic != europhobe.
No, She wins !!
Enfield Southgate to Labour
Keighley is another Lab gain
In Copeland, DerbysNE, Mansfield and NewcastleUL they've won seats they haven't held since before WW2.
And I think that applies to Walsall N as well.
Someone like Cameron. Or Osborne.
Bugger.
I think when you sober up (and have a rest) you will regret this.
I won't engage with it any longer.
Plus on no. 6 they utterly failed to make the case for why Corbyn's toxic associations mattered. So people discounted the attacks.
It seems to me that the electorate have punished parties in power - hence the SNP and Tory losses.
Anyone but Boris for me for the Tory leadership. He is not serious and the EU do not take him seriously.
Our approach to Brexit is going to have to be rethought as well.
"This market will be settled on the formation of the first ministry (government) after assent is given by the reigning monarch after the next UK general election."
I struggle to see how this can be settled in any way other than May. The Tories can't pick a new leader quickly enough, so surely May will be the first PM, even if only for a few weeks.