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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the 2017 general election killed Scottish nationalism ston

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    GeoffM said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    But Dave didn't announce it in the middle of the campaign.
    Neither did May. Someone asked her a question if the previous leader's policy still stood.
    Yet someone did ask Cameron during the 2015 campaign and he dealt with it.

    As has been noted below, Aaron had to deal with fox hunting in the campaign when he should have been dealing with other stuff
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    DavidL said:

    20% swing in Banff & Buchan. Amazing.

    As predicted by @Pulpstar.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Banff and Buchan Tory gain. What a disaster for the SNP.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Con gain Derbyshire NE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Gotta get a couple of hours sleep. Thanks for your company everybody.

    Nite/morning all.

    Me too.

    I think we might be doing all this again within a year.
    Bloody best not. Time to work like grownups. I don't like that 40% of people voted for Corbyn, but we'll have to work something out now, won't we?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.

    I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.

    Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.

    What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Lab hold Barrow and Furness
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    llef said:

    cerediigion update

    1st count plaid lead 150
    2nd count plaid lead 100

    some plaidn and lib votes found in labour and con bundles.

    so a 3rd count will start - take an hour

    Welsh wipeout for the yellow peril.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Good morning... Tory MPs are gearing up for another brutal day June morning in Westminster..... https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/873021600223961088
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Scott_P said:

    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017

    That's not over the top.
    She is right, dreadful campaign and it wasn't a tory manifesto.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    Brighton Kemptown - Labour GAIN
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Brighton Kemptown Labour gain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Massive win for Labour in Brighton Kemptown
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249

    Lab hold Barrow and Furness

    One Labour hold I'm not upset about.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Derbyshire NE.

    Nice!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Landslide gain by Labour in Kemptown. 10,000 majority
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Brightkemptown - Labour GAIN

    People's republic of brighton was bound to grow on this night.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Derbyshire NE.

    Hooray for Pulps - yes I know he's a LibDem.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    John woodcock reelected
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Derbyshire NE.

    What?!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    Brightkemptown - Labour GAIN

    Please let them take Pavilion too!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con gain Derbyshire NE from Labour
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    The Tories have to knife Theresa tomorrow morning.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    edited June 2017
    deleted
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Banff and Buchan is a Conservative GAIN from the SNP. They've overturned a 31.4% SNP majority from 2015.

    Amazing numbers being overturned in Scotland, which I don’t think many foresaw.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,765
    Theresa May has monumentally, cosmically screwed up. Legendary stuff.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    MaxPB said:

    The Tories have to knife Theresa tomorrow morning.

    She's gone. She won't need to be pushed.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    So Shipley stayed blue?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    barrowhold, abject con fail
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    My Greg Clark backing at 100/1 is surely going to come in quite quickly now.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Lab hold Barrow and Furness

    One Labour hold I'm not upset about.
    Agree with that. Local circumstances top the blind rosette colour votes there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    So Shipley stayed blue?

    Yep
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Banff and Buchan is a Conservative GAIN from the SNP. They've overturned a 31.4% SNP majority from 2015.

    Amazing numbers being overturned in Scotland, which I don’t think many foresaw.
    One of the first Scottish polls suggest over a dozen Tory seats, but it was always seen as unlikely to be quite so grand as that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.

    Not surprised.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    Plus Osborne failing to balance the books by 2015, which enabled Corbyn to run on an anti austerity ticket
    Would they have been elected in 2015 if they had stuck to their 2010 plans? I'd like to have found out, but there was a reason they slowed, and part of that was they couldn't get their own people to back anything harder.
    If the books were balanced probably or at least with LD and DUP confidence and supply
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.

    Hurrah! Sorry the other side of the deal didn't happen
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Have we heard any more about Amber yet?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Stewart Jackson lol. Would love to see him on here in the coming days explain his loss. Somehow I don't think we will see him!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.

    Not surprised.
    Not with the Mansfield and Bolsover results.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    BBC has revised Con forecast down to 316 (from 318)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    edited June 2017

    Labour hold Halifax where TMay launched her election campaign. Was expected to be a Tory gain.

    I;m going to get stick from nieces up that way...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/stvnews/status/873022306246811648

    So much blue!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Have we heard any more about Amber yet?

    Result before 5am
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    I really wish Cameron had not resigned his seat - I liked the ideas of leaders sticking around to contribute, and he'd be well placed to help now!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I recon - against all the odds - Betfair sportsbook made money out of punters this election.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Have we heard any more about Amber yet?

    ten minutes to declaration
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Conservatives doing a great job with the snp. Once the snp go labour can clean up what's left.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124
    Tried and failed to sleep. Ah well. Have to survive tomorrow on coffee and adrenaline
  • RobD said:

    So Shipley stayed blue?

    Yep
    Maj 4,681. Not even that close
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    jonny83 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017

    That's not over the top.
    She is right, dreadful campaign and it wasn't a tory manifesto.
    Thought her analysis was spot on.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    The Tories have to knife Theresa tomorrow morning.

    Sadly, she has to be replaced.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited June 2017
    deleted
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme

    Another potential Con gain in Midlands is Newcastle under Lyme

    they did ok in the midlands in the end.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    Conservatives doing a great job with the snp. Once the snp go labour can clean up what's left.

    Utterly amazed they are in the mid-30s!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    I love that absolute monarchy moderated by regicide line lol.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017

    Conservatives doing a great job with the snp. Once the snp go labour can clean up what's left.

    It is all looking a bit quebec for them, right now.

    Pity, I always liked Mr Salmond.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Have we heard any more about Amber yet?

    Third recount.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    IDS: For the next 24 hours we need stability.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Were supposed to hear about Ceredigion by now. Hope they found some more votes for Williams.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Have we heard any more about Amber yet?

    Third recount.
    Declaration within 10 m ins according to Sky
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    IDS: For the next 24 hours we need stability.

    Then we go batshit crazy and depose her! :p
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Virtually every tight call has gone Tory. That's 20 seat swing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    Casino, people really don't like fox hunting. Aaron had alot of emails about it - you can't win a majority just with shire Tories.
    Cameron won a majority in GE2015 with an identical pledge.

    And people don't understand shit about fox hunting. It's a vocal minority.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MarinaHyde: Tonight is so beautiful I may come down with Stendhal Syndrome https://twitter.com/wikiguido/status/873022252727517184
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    IDS: For the next 24 hours we need stability.

    Boy, that's a bit of come down from 5 years of stability, but it is more achievable.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Just back from the count in Perth and NP. The result here although v close is looking more an anomaly compared to the rest of the Con vs SNP battles in Scotland. The loss of 4 seats for the Nats in the NE is big surprise
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.

    Hurrah! Sorry the other side of the deal didn't happen
    I thought it was you who would be the Con to LD vote swapper.

    So Hallam gets Labour for the first time ever and adjacent NED goes Con for the first time ever.

    Killamarsh is now more Conservative than Dore.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.

    Hurrah! Sorry the other side of the deal didn't happen
    I think its important that we can get a Gov't and I might just have done my bit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Sadly not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.

    Not surprised.
    Not with the Mansfield and Bolsover results.
    Do the Tories have a chance in Ashfield? Heard there might be a recount there.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Great quote from @angelaeagle on May: "Throughout this campaign she avoided scrutiny like a vampire avoids the sunlight."

    Yes, that's almost certainly going to persist as one of the myths of this election despite all of the evidence to the contrary.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Con held Finchley! (SKY)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    Casino, people really don't like fox hunting. Aaron had alot of emails about it - you can't win a majority just with shire Tories.
    Cameron won a majority in GE2015 with an identical pledge.

    And people don't understand shit about fox hunting. It's a vocal minority.
    But it didn't get announced as a policy in the election campaign. It was done well before that and then snuck into the manifesto.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:


    I don't like that 40% of people voted for Corbyn

    And there are many, many people up and down the land incredulous that 43% voted for Theresa May and a Tory party that has wrought viciousness on all but the rich for the last seven years. Today was richly deserved.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    Con held Finchley! (SKY)

    Fuck yes!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Scottish Labour in 2015.
  • DougieDougie Posts: 57
    Tories will be second place in Scotland in terms of votes - they're level pegging with Labour on 28.1%, and there are two almost certain Conservative seats left out of five. Labour are highly unlikely to have any significant vote in any of the remaining seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    This Amber Rudd result is going to be very important in the context of the minority government to come. Really every seat is so important.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Hillary Clinton's.

    Yes2AV
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Bottom line is we've got 5 more years of austerity.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Con held Finchley! (SKY)

    Yeh, that was always going to happen.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,928

    Danny565 said:

    Labour now officially exceeded their 2015 seats total.

    All the Europhobes have done is make Corbyn a God.
    Why are you being so rude to everyone tonight?

    Do you realise how you're coming across?
    As I've insinuated tonight, is that really somewhere you want to go? Someone who retracted a job offer I'd never asked for? To your credit, you privately apologised profusely for that.

    You need to consider the position of 'ordinary' people. You are too EU obsessed. Much more is in the purview of the UK's parliament than in the EU's, and 'ordinary' people realise that.

    Hence this result. You should have listened.

    But at least you can escape abroad. I cannot.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    MikeL said:

    BBC has revised Con forecast down to 316 (from 318)

    I suspect there will be a lot of Tory MPs and candidates who got over 40% of the vote and lost
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Con Gain Derbyshire NE.

    Not surprised.
    Not with the Mansfield and Bolsover results.
    Do the Tories have a chance in Ashfield? Heard there might be a recount there.
    The East Midlands seems to have gone amazingly well.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Virtually every tight call has gone Tory. That's 20 seat swing.

    Yeah, but on the flip-side they have lost southern England seats that they should not be losing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,230
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    Sadly not.
    "Who Govern's Britain?" in a similar league perhaps.....
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    MaxPB said:

    Con held Finchley! (SKY)

    Fuck yes!
    Hurray
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    A passing thought - the suggestion that people like me have been making that the polls had overcompensated for lower Labour turnout is being borne out. Essentially ICM and those like them have been fighting the last war. If people say they're going to vote, maybe we should start believing them...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Tories hold Finchley.
    Tories hold Harrow East.
  • If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.

    I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.

    Is the UUP long-term dead, at least in Westminster terms? Once the situation becomes polarised like that, it's very hard to stage a comeback because of the risk of "the other side" sneaking in.

    What do you think is the future for the more liberal brand of unionism in NI ? Is the best chance that the DUP becomes a bigger tent, with a more liberal wing? That at some point the DUP hits a scandal and the UUP resurrects itself? Can't see there being a new unionist party to replace the UUP, been some comedy value in previous attempts. Or can you not see a path at all?
    I'm too tired and emotional (not a euphemism in this case) to think about it. Right now, I'm considering moving to Australia.

    We have a lot of thinking to do. I can't see a long term future for Unionism if it is dependent on the DUP entirely. They will never win over enough Catholic or non religious people to keep the Union safe. We are effectively admitting that the Union will survive until the current primary school kids can vote.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Scott_P said:

    @MarinaHyde: Tonight is so beautiful I may come down with Stendhal Syndrome https://twitter.com/wikiguido/status/873022252727517184

    They should have painted £350m for the NHS on the side of the bus. Clearly.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    All the tight calls are going Tory :(

    Still think they could squeak a majority.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Theresa may and the press aren't going to let her go.

    She will be prime minister
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    I'll say it right now: if you thought May wasn't cut out to be PM, just wait until you see Boris.

    Anyone but Boris. Hammond, Rudd, Hunt .. Ideally Davidson.

    Or, and TSE might use the banhammer on me for saying this, but I'd support David Davis as temporary caretaker leader up until the conclusion of the A50 negotiations.

    2 years. Further election.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Wasn't Gordon Brown labelled a squatter after failing to win a majority? May should just go, not hang about.
This discussion has been closed.