Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the 2017 general election killed Scottish nationalism ston

13567

Comments

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 993
    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I believe she is a Cameroon, well that is the impression I got. If she does want to move to Westminster it will be interesting to hear her policy stances.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,354
    Danny565 said:

    BBC projecting a 3% Tory lead. 43 to 40.

    I think that's UK.

    GB will be 44-41
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    When was the last self-inflicted disaster at this scale?

    Where's the disaster? The Nats have been castrated, May's a goner and the Tory's have won.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753

    SKY- UKIP's current share is 1.9%

    Broadcasters will be able to keep them off the TV now.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    Danny565 said:

    BBC projecting a 3% Tory lead. 43 to 40.

    Corbyn's remarkable campaign added 15%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    LDs on 8% - to increase seats while the others increase in share is impressive, even if it is mostly down to Scotland.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold both Northampton constituencies.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    edited June 2017
    How many more gains can Con make in Scotland?

    And from Lab in Midlands/North?
    Something from Ashfield, Debyershire NE, Stoke South, Wakefield, Halifax, Barrow. Anything else not yet declared?

    But they could still lose something in London...given Harrow West result, Harrow East is at risk. Enfield Southgate could be in danger too
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
  • If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.

    I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,875
    Survation closest
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Labour on 40%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Lab close to 2001 levels, tremendous result. Tories still marginally more popular though.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    Labour just held Halifax with a 11% majority
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859
    Oh bloody hell it's daylight now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210
    AndyJS said:

    Tories hold both Northampton constituencies.

    Surprised, given the controversy in one of them.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,069
    Con hold Wells.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,328

    How many more gains can Con make in Scotland?

    And from Lab in Midlands/North?
    Something from Ashfield, Debyershire NE, Stoke South, Wakefield, Halifax. Anything else not yet declared?

    But they could still lose something in London...given Harrow West result, Harrow East is at risk. Enfield Southgate could be in danger too

    Argyll & Bute, Banff & Buchan and D&G. DCT wink also stay blue.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 993
    Soubury looks happy, very critical of the tory campaign though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    BBC projecting a 3% Tory lead. 43 to 40.

    Corbyn's remarkable campaign added 15%.
    25 always felt too low. But it added a lot.
  • The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    But Dave didn't announce it in the middle of the campaign.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    kle4 said:

    Lab close to 2001 levels, tremendous result. Tories still marginally more popular though.

    Tories still on course for most votes in an election ever?

    43% beyond the wildest dreams of 2010 and 2015.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Anna soubry a arrogance is a disgrace. How can anyone fucking vote for her

    Traitors in broxtowe
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859
    jonny83 said:

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I believe she is a Cameroon, well that is the impression I got. If she does want to move to Westminster it will be interesting to hear her policy stances.
    Socially liberal and fiscally conservative. The right kind of Tory.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 993
    edited June 2017
    Wow Soubry pretty scathing about the campaign
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,328
    Banff & Buchan gone SCon on ITV.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972

    Danny565 said:

    Labour now officially exceeded their 2015 seats total.

    All the Europhobes have done is make Corbyn a God.
    Why are you being so rude to everyone tonight?

    Do you realise how you're coming across?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,069
    Labour win Enfield Southgate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,478

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    Casino, people really don't like fox hunting. Aaron had alot of emails about it - you can't win a majority just with shire Tories.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,822

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
    Yep, my politics is not far from that. While I wouldn't say I'm totally fiscally conservative, at my core I'm socially liberal.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,149
    Turnout up in Remain areas, down in Leave areas
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,488
    edited June 2017

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    Plus Osborne failing to balance the books by 2015, which enabled Corbyn to run on an anti austerity ticket and even win over some socially conservative UKIP voters on that ticket, plus I grant you more tax cuts needed which is what Osborne did get right
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,478
    Con Hold Wells, one of my SW portfolio.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,103
    Chameleon said:

    Banff & Buchan gone SCon on ITV.

    Hehe. So Salmond would have been toast wherever he was....
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    Anna Soubry wants May out.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,354
    Con down 11 seats net.

    3 possible gains still to come in Scotland.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Ha, unlikely. The party have been kicked, but not upended, they did increase their share after all, they just did badly against their opponent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,972
    Oh, yes please. £90 on that would wipe out all my losses.
  • Thank fuck, Johnny Mercer holds on
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    SKY- UKIP's current share is 1.9%

    Broadcasters will be able to keep them off the TV now.
    Why? The Greens still seem to appear completely disproportionately to vote share or seats held.

    Although you are right and they will. Exactly like getting a thread header slot on PB ... if your face doesn't fit the quality of your message doesn't matter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    Thank fuck, Johnny Mercer holds on

    There is a god!
  • One bright spot for the Cons is they have seen massively increased majorities in some of the Brexit-voting ex-LD constituencies:

    Thornbury - 12k
    Torbay - 14k
    Yeovil - 15k
  • Gotta get a couple of hours sleep. Thanks for your company everybody.

    Nite/morning all.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873

    Anna soubry a arrogance is a disgrace. How can anyone fucking vote for her

    Traitors in broxtowe

    What's Soubry said ?
  • HYUFD said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    Plus Osborne failing to balance the books by 2015, which enabled Corbyn to run on an anti austerity ticket
    Yeah because Ed Miliband didn't run on an anti austerity ticket in 2015.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    Pulpstar said:

    Con Hold Wells, one of my SW portfolio.

    How are you looking overall? I know you're one of the higher rollers here.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Presumably the boundary review is dead? Again.

    You'd hope so. We've seen tonight and in 2015 that the Conservative Party can win seats in Scotland and Wales.
  • DavidL said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
    That was implicit in 3)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,769
    prediction back down to 316
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    HYUFD said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    Plus Osborne failing to balance the books by 2015, which enabled Corbyn to run on an anti austerity ticket
    Would they have been elected in 2015 if they had stuck to their 2010 plans? I'd like to have found out, but there was a reason they slowed, and part of that was they couldn't get their own people to back anything harder.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
    5) relentless negative campaigning and hyperbolic attacks on Corbyn
    6) vacating the field for two weeks and assuming labour would suffer from all the publicity
    7) calling an election to ask a question about style not substance. Which the public didn't want to answer.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    And there is still Dumfries. What an incredible night for the Scottish tories.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
    Yep, my politics is not far from that. While I wouldn't say I'm totally fiscally conservative, at my core I'm socially liberal.
    People are not binary; on and off. You need to appeal to the greyscales.

    Hard Europhobes are blind to this.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 805
    Does the convention that the Lords cannot block manifesto items apply when it is a minority government with supply and confidence support?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Unlikely, but she's going to back someone else tomorrow morning.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    Not exactly a surprise.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: Banff and Buchan is a Conservative GAIN from the SNP. They've overturned a 31.4% SNP majority from 2015.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,478
    Chameleon said:

    Banff & Buchan gone SCon on ITV.

    I got on at 11-2. It will be the biggest swing in Scotland, the most leave seat in Scotland.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    Scott_P said:
    Much derided, but almost bang on. We'll be taking them far more seriously next time!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,822
    I love Anna Soubry. One of my favourite Tories.
  • AHMatlockAHMatlock Posts: 15
    Gobby living up to her name on the BBC. Ugh. Time for bed!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,069
    Labour hold Barrow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Banff and Buchan is a Conservative GAIN from the SNP. They've overturned a 31.4% SNP majority from 2015.

    :D
  • dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    CON GAIN BANFF AND BUCHAN
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    I guess Brighton Kemptown could go Labour given other results
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,328
    Rexel56 said:

    Does the convention that the Lords cannot block manifesto items apply when it is a minority government with supply and confidence support?

    If it passes the Commons, yes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chloe Smith held Norwich North by 507 votes.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 993
    Soubry saying a lot of good one nation conservatives lost seats tonight because of this dreadful campaign.

    Wow.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Just stating the obvious and right now there’s a queue forming to replace May.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210
    Rexel56 said:

    Does the convention that the Lords cannot block manifesto items apply when it is a minority government with supply and confidence support?

    That's surely the great thing about our constitution: it's made up as we go along?
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    cerediigion update

    1st count plaid lead 150
    2nd count plaid lead 100

    some plaidn and lib votes found in labour and con bundles.

    so a 3rd count will start - take an hour
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
    That's where MOST people are. As Meeks said before both Elizabeth I and Thatcher, May tried to be like Merkel's christian democrats but that is not Britain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
    5) relentless negative campaigning and hyperbolic attacks on Corbyn
    6) vacating the field for two weeks and assuming labour would suffer from all the publicity
    6) is I would say the most critical failing. I assumed a Labour bump in the campaign, albeit not so dramatic, but it was the height of complacency to assume that the more people say of Corbyn the more they would dislike him. One of the problems with Corbyn is he is superficially attractive.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    They all want May out -- probably including Theresa May whose heart can no longer be in it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,873

    Gotta get a couple of hours sleep. Thanks for your company everybody.

    Nite/morning all.

    Me too.

    I think we might be doing all this again within a year.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    But Dave didn't announce it in the middle of the campaign.
    Neither did May. Someone asked her a question if the previous leader's policy still stood.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,822
    Scott_P said:

    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017

    That's not over the top.
  • El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 124
    Surprised to see Soubry out of her coffin now that it's daylight, she looks dreadful.
  • Presumably the boundary review is dead? Again.

    You'd hope so. We've seen tonight and in 2015 that the Conservative Party can win seats in Scotland and Wales.
    I wonder if they might start again. 640 seats cutting the over-representation of Wales (which has been bad for the Cons this time around)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,328
    20% swing in B&B. Wow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,478
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Much derided, but almost bang on. We'll be taking them far more seriously next time!
    I owe Yougov an apology, that is an astounding model.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,564

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    I think they all want May out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,488

    As someone said earlier tonight, Gordon Brown is now vindicated for not calling an election in 2007

    Yes but he got just 29% in 2010, May got 44% tonight in 2007 Brown would have done better
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    They all want May out -- probably including Theresa May whose heart can no longer be in it.
    Yeah, you could see it when she gave her speech.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,488
    Pong said:

    Does anyone remember the Copeland byelection?

    Seems so long ago, now.

    Tories held Copeland
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Anna Soubry vindicated.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,210
    jonny83 said:

    Soubry saying a lot of good one nation conservatives lost seats tonight because of this dreadful campaign.

    Wow.

    Wait for the UKIPpers-hiding-as-conservatives to squeal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    dr_spyn said:

    Labour hold Barrow.

    In the circumstances not what I wanted, but kudos to Woodcock, although looks like he needn't have worried about Corbyn dragging down his vote.

    Amusing to think that a few elections ago I think not a single Scottish seat changed hands?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    20% swing in Banff & Buchan. Amazing.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,228
    Labour hold Halifax where TMay launched her election campaign. Was expected to be a Tory gain.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,435

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Just stating the obvious and right now there’s a queue forming to replace May.
    She's effectively calling on May to go ("consider her position"). There is some personal background there relating to the reshuffle when AS left government.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    edited June 2017
    dmc82 said:

    CON GAIN BANFF AND BUCHAN

    Oh Scotland, have I ever told you how much I love thee?

    Seriously, separate the England clusterfuck a minute, just look at those Tory gains in Scotland.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,914
    Scott_P said:

    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017

    Weapons tight! Fox two!
This discussion has been closed.