Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Has the 2017 general election killed Scottish nationalism ston

13567

Comments

  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I believe she is a Cameroon, well that is the impression I got. If she does want to move to Westminster it will be interesting to hear her policy stances.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Danny565 said:

    BBC projecting a 3% Tory lead. 43 to 40.

    I think that's UK.

    GB will be 44-41
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    When was the last self-inflicted disaster at this scale?

    Where's the disaster? The Nats have been castrated, May's a goner and the Tory's have won.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999

    SKY- UKIP's current share is 1.9%

    Broadcasters will be able to keep them off the TV now.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Danny565 said:

    BBC projecting a 3% Tory lead. 43 to 40.

    Corbyn's remarkable campaign added 15%.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    LDs on 8% - to increase seats while the others increase in share is impressive, even if it is mostly down to Scotland.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories hold both Northampton constituencies.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,877

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2017
    How many more gains can Con make in Scotland?

    And from Lab in Midlands/North?
    Something from Ashfield, Debyershire NE, Stoke South, Wakefield, Halifax, Barrow. Anything else not yet declared?

    But they could still lose something in London...given Harrow West result, Harrow East is at risk. Enfield Southgate could be in danger too
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
  • Options
    If Ruth Davidson isn't being urgently found a safe seat then something is wrong.

    I'm just about avoiding blubbering. NI is totally polarised. The middle ground is a no man's land.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Survation closest
  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Labour on 40%
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Lab close to 2001 levels, tremendous result. Tories still marginally more popular though.
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour just held Halifax with a 11% majority
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Oh bloody hell it's daylight now.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,877
    AndyJS said:

    Tories hold both Northampton constituencies.

    Surprised, given the controversy in one of them.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,283
    Con hold Wells.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    How many more gains can Con make in Scotland?

    And from Lab in Midlands/North?
    Something from Ashfield, Debyershire NE, Stoke South, Wakefield, Halifax. Anything else not yet declared?

    But they could still lose something in London...given Harrow West result, Harrow East is at risk. Enfield Southgate could be in danger too

    Argyll & Bute, Banff & Buchan and D&G. DCT wink also stay blue.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Soubury looks happy, very critical of the tory campaign though.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Jonathan said:

    Danny565 said:

    BBC projecting a 3% Tory lead. 43 to 40.

    Corbyn's remarkable campaign added 15%.
    25 always felt too low. But it added a lot.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,239

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    But Dave didn't announce it in the middle of the campaign.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    kle4 said:

    Lab close to 2001 levels, tremendous result. Tories still marginally more popular though.

    Tories still on course for most votes in an election ever?

    43% beyond the wildest dreams of 2010 and 2015.
  • Options
    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Anna soubry a arrogance is a disgrace. How can anyone fucking vote for her

    Traitors in broxtowe
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    jonny83 said:

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I believe she is a Cameroon, well that is the impression I got. If she does want to move to Westminster it will be interesting to hear her policy stances.
    Socially liberal and fiscally conservative. The right kind of Tory.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited June 2017
    Wow Soubry pretty scathing about the campaign
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Banff & Buchan gone SCon on ITV.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    Danny565 said:

    Labour now officially exceeded their 2015 seats total.

    All the Europhobes have done is make Corbyn a God.
    Why are you being so rude to everyone tonight?

    Do you realise how you're coming across?
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,283
    Labour win Enfield Southgate.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    Casino, people really don't like fox hunting. Aaron had alot of emails about it - you can't win a majority just with shire Tories.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,112

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
    Yep, my politics is not far from that. While I wouldn't say I'm totally fiscally conservative, at my core I'm socially liberal.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Turnout up in Remain areas, down in Leave areas
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited June 2017

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    Plus Osborne failing to balance the books by 2015, which enabled Corbyn to run on an anti austerity ticket and even win over some socially conservative UKIP voters on that ticket, plus I grant you more tax cuts needed which is what Osborne did get right
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    Con Hold Wells, one of my SW portfolio.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Chameleon said:

    Banff & Buchan gone SCon on ITV.

    Hehe. So Salmond would have been toast wherever he was....
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Anna Soubry wants May out.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Con down 11 seats net.

    3 possible gains still to come in Scotland.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Ha, unlikely. The party have been kicked, but not upended, they did increase their share after all, they just did badly against their opponent.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Oh, yes please. £90 on that would wipe out all my losses.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,239
    Thank fuck, Johnny Mercer holds on
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    SKY- UKIP's current share is 1.9%

    Broadcasters will be able to keep them off the TV now.
    Why? The Greens still seem to appear completely disproportionately to vote share or seats held.

    Although you are right and they will. Exactly like getting a thread header slot on PB ... if your face doesn't fit the quality of your message doesn't matter.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955

    Thank fuck, Johnny Mercer holds on

    There is a god!
  • Options
    One bright spot for the Cons is they have seen massively increased majorities in some of the Brexit-voting ex-LD constituencies:

    Thornbury - 12k
    Torbay - 14k
    Yeovil - 15k
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,286
    Gotta get a couple of hours sleep. Thanks for your company everybody.

    Nite/morning all.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,031

    Anna soubry a arrogance is a disgrace. How can anyone fucking vote for her

    Traitors in broxtowe

    What's Soubry said ?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,239
    HYUFD said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    Plus Osborne failing to balance the books by 2015, which enabled Corbyn to run on an anti austerity ticket
    Yeah because Ed Miliband didn't run on an anti austerity ticket in 2015.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Pulpstar said:

    Con Hold Wells, one of my SW portfolio.

    How are you looking overall? I know you're one of the higher rollers here.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Presumably the boundary review is dead? Again.

    You'd hope so. We've seen tonight and in 2015 that the Conservative Party can win seats in Scotland and Wales.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,239
    DavidL said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
    That was implicit in 3)
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    prediction back down to 316
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    HYUFD said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    Plus Osborne failing to balance the books by 2015, which enabled Corbyn to run on an anti austerity ticket
    Would they have been elected in 2015 if they had stuck to their 2010 plans? I'd like to have found out, but there was a reason they slowed, and part of that was they couldn't get their own people to back anything harder.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
    5) relentless negative campaigning and hyperbolic attacks on Corbyn
    6) vacating the field for two weeks and assuming labour would suffer from all the publicity
    7) calling an election to ask a question about style not substance. Which the public didn't want to answer.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,112
    And there is still Dumfries. What an incredible night for the Scottish tories.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,877

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
    Yep, my politics is not far from that. While I wouldn't say I'm totally fiscally conservative, at my core I'm socially liberal.
    People are not binary; on and off. You need to appeal to the greyscales.

    Hard Europhobes are blind to this.
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Does the convention that the Lords cannot block manifesto items apply when it is a minority government with supply and confidence support?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Unlikely, but she's going to back someone else tomorrow morning.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    Not exactly a surprise.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: Banff and Buchan is a Conservative GAIN from the SNP. They've overturned a 31.4% SNP majority from 2015.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    Chameleon said:

    Banff & Buchan gone SCon on ITV.

    I got on at 11-2. It will be the biggest swing in Scotland, the most leave seat in Scotland.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    Scott_P said:
    Much derided, but almost bang on. We'll be taking them far more seriously next time!
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I love Anna Soubry. One of my favourite Tories.
  • Options
    AHMatlockAHMatlock Posts: 15
    Gobby living up to her name on the BBC. Ugh. Time for bed!
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,283
    Labour hold Barrow.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Banff and Buchan is a Conservative GAIN from the SNP. They've overturned a 31.4% SNP majority from 2015.

    :D
  • Options
    dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    CON GAIN BANFF AND BUCHAN
  • Options
    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I guess Brighton Kemptown could go Labour given other results
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Rexel56 said:

    Does the convention that the Lords cannot block manifesto items apply when it is a minority government with supply and confidence support?

    If it passes the Commons, yes.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chloe Smith held Norwich North by 507 votes.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Soubry saying a lot of good one nation conservatives lost seats tonight because of this dreadful campaign.

    Wow.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Just stating the obvious and right now there’s a queue forming to replace May.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,877
    Rexel56 said:

    Does the convention that the Lords cannot block manifesto items apply when it is a minority government with supply and confidence support?

    That's surely the great thing about our constitution: it's made up as we go along?
  • Options
    llefllef Posts: 298
    cerediigion update

    1st count plaid lead 150
    2nd count plaid lead 100

    some plaidn and lib votes found in labour and con bundles.

    so a 3rd count will start - take an hour
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Danny565 said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is one of the most moderate Conservatives - Ruth Davidson - that has saved the Tories tonight. The country has not swung as right, as some Conservatives imagined that it had.

    Theresa May isn't right wing.
    She's more to the right that Ruth is.
    Not sure she is. As far as I can see, beyond being anti-independence, Davidson doesn't really seem to have any clear politics.
    I'd disagree. Davidson is socially liberal, fiscally conservative. She's be on the left of the party, where Ken Clarke is.
    (Whispers quietly to the righists in the Conservative party)

    That's where many people are. You cannot ignore them.
    That's where MOST people are. As Meeks said before both Elizabeth I and Thatcher, May tried to be like Merkel's christian democrats but that is not Britain.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    4) ducking the head to head debate. People did not like it.
    5) relentless negative campaigning and hyperbolic attacks on Corbyn
    6) vacating the field for two weeks and assuming labour would suffer from all the publicity
    6) is I would say the most critical failing. I assumed a Labour bump in the campaign, albeit not so dramatic, but it was the height of complacency to assume that the more people say of Corbyn the more they would dislike him. One of the problems with Corbyn is he is superficially attractive.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    They all want May out -- probably including Theresa May whose heart can no longer be in it.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,031

    Gotta get a couple of hours sleep. Thanks for your company everybody.

    Nite/morning all.

    Me too.

    I think we might be doing all this again within a year.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    The Tory fuck ups

    1) May backing Fox hunting
    2) Dementia tax and pretending you hadn't u-turned
    3) Theresa May failing the Turing Test

    No-one apart from anti-Tories mentioned fox hunting.

    Your mates Dave and George put exactly the same pledge in the GE2015 manifesto, and even tried to call a free vote on it (before the SNP stopped them)

    It didn't stop them winning a majority.
    But Dave didn't announce it in the middle of the campaign.
    Neither did May. Someone asked her a question if the previous leader's policy still stood.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017

    That's not over the top.
  • Options
    El_SidEl_Sid Posts: 145
    Surprised to see Soubry out of her coffin now that it's daylight, she looks dreadful.
  • Options

    Presumably the boundary review is dead? Again.

    You'd hope so. We've seen tonight and in 2015 that the Conservative Party can win seats in Scotland and Wales.
    I wonder if they might start again. 640 seats cutting the over-representation of Wales (which has been bad for the Cons this time around)
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    20% swing in B&B. Wow.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Much derided, but almost bang on. We'll be taking them far more seriously next time!
    I owe Yougov an apology, that is an astounding model.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,434

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    I think they all want May out.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935

    As someone said earlier tonight, Gordon Brown is now vindicated for not calling an election in 2007

    Yes but he got just 29% in 2010, May got 44% tonight in 2007 Brown would have done better
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955

    Anna Soubry wants May out.

    They all want May out -- probably including Theresa May whose heart can no longer be in it.
    Yeah, you could see it when she gave her speech.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Pong said:

    Does anyone remember the Copeland byelection?

    Seems so long ago, now.

    Tories held Copeland
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Anna Soubry vindicated.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,877
    jonny83 said:

    Soubry saying a lot of good one nation conservatives lost seats tonight because of this dreadful campaign.

    Wow.

    Wait for the UKIPpers-hiding-as-conservatives to squeal.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    dr_spyn said:

    Labour hold Barrow.

    In the circumstances not what I wanted, but kudos to Woodcock, although looks like he needn't have worried about Corbyn dragging down his vote.

    Amusing to think that a few elections ago I think not a single Scottish seat changed hands?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,112
    20% swing in Banff & Buchan. Amazing.
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Labour hold Halifax where TMay launched her election campaign. Was expected to be a Tory gain.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,317

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Anna Soubry says "we ran a pretty dreadful campaign and that's me being generous". #GE2017

    Leadership bid?

    Just stating the obvious and right now there’s a queue forming to replace May.
    She's effectively calling on May to go ("consider her position"). There is some personal background there relating to the reshuffle when AS left government.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017
    dmc82 said:

    CON GAIN BANFF AND BUCHAN

    Oh Scotland, have I ever told you how much I love thee?

    Seriously, separate the England clusterfuck a minute, just look at those Tory gains in Scotland.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,972
    Scott_P said:

    @SebastianEPayne: Anna Soubry goes over the top, and says Theresa May should “consider her position…it’s been a dreadful night" #GE2017

    Weapons tight! Fox two!
This discussion has been closed.