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  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Congratulations Paul. I guess we'll need to recruit!
  • ReallyEvilMuffin
    ReallyEvilMuffin Posts: 65
    Didn't someone say that the constituency changes are going through unless altered by parliament? Would screw brexit but could the conservatives eek on u til the changes are confirmed with the DUP?
  • Drutt
    Drutt Posts: 1,125
    My SCON 6-10 bet is going to go over the top, isn't it?
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Floater said:

    I admit I am heading towards slightly pissed - am I alone ? :-)

    I had my last drink in 2005. There is however plenty of the stuff in the house. Not sure whether to put the cherry on top of a perfect day by falling off the wagon.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    HYUFD said:

    Renfrewshire East

    Conservative gain from SNP

    Another one for Ruth, the saviour of the Conservative and Unionist Party!
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    EDW20000 said:

    I am buying pounds call options, Brexit is doomed

    Nope. Brexit will go ahead. And probably be far better managed than it would have been because it won't be May calling the shots.
    Desperate straw-clutching.

    The country may well be in chaos.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Harwick and Essex North

    Conservative Hold
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    glw said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.

    The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
    Because of your spreadsheets I assume that everything you say is Gospel. But I don't understand why. :)
    another_richard said:

    Y0kel said:

    To be honest if the Tories polled 44-45% nationally again in 6 months, I doubt they'd fail to get a majority.

    Get rid of the dementia tax and promise £350m for the NHS.
    Throw in the single market membership too I think.
    Go for EFTA membership and the EEA. The Norway option that so many Brexit supporters wanted anyway.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Drutt said:

    My SCON 6-10 bet is going to go over the top, isn't it?

    Yup.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Tunbridge Wells
    Conservative hold
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    MattyNeth said:

    MaxPB said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Yes, with soft Brexit. Tbh, it could be my ideal result!
    Soft Brexit doesn't exist
    Yes it does. FoM is the only thing stopping it.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Labour 200 votes ahead in Canterbury.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    12 year old Tory the candidate in East Ren. Not even close, exit poll had it SLAB IIRC
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,357
    Traded out of the last of my Labour minority govt bet on Betfair at 8 - just in the nick of time.
    Layed most of my Cons minority govt too, as it's just possible they scrape a majority.

    Osborn looking a bit more cheerful.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Walthamstow
    Labour hold
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.

    I think we'll be able to avoid the latter, the union looks like it's been saved but Brexit is the big question. Hopefully we're heading for soft Brexit. Global Britain, I hope.
    We won't once the EU starts collapsing in fairly short order. The EU is fu**ed in so many ways.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Bolton NE
    Labour hold
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    UGH Sinn Fein GAIN Foyle.

    Northern Ireland <.<
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    kle4 said:

    12 year old Tory the candidate in East Ren. Not even close, exit poll had it SLAB IIRC

    The Tory Surge(tm) is *ACTUALLY HAPPENING*.

    :D
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    CNN expert says Tories will end up closer to 300 than to 326.

    !

    Not buying it though.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    HYUFD said:

    Harwick and Essex North

    Conservative Hold

    well if Bernard lost his seat the sky would be falling in
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Looks like the Tories are going to just hang-on, helped by Sinn Fein making gains and reducing the threshold for a majority.

    The levels of irony in this though.
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    AndyJS said:

    Sinn Fein gain Foyle. Perhaps a sympathy vote to the memory of Martin McGuinness who used to be the SF candidate there for many elections.

    Middle-class Catholics / Nationalists are just sick of the endless scowling from Arlene Foster's unionism. The SDLP couldn't satisfy that demand and keep unionist tactical votes, it looks like they lost a bit of both.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    edited June 2017
    East Dumbartonshire lib dem win
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    12% majority for Labour in Wirral West
    19% in Wirral South
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    another_richard said:

    Typo said:

    So Lib Dems lost Southport but who gained it? :D

    We were told that the LibDems were certain to hold Southport because they won every ward in the constituency last year.

    Well this year they came third.
    YouGov had it as a 92% probability Tory gain,

    All hail YouGov.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Swinson wins!
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Spin suspended ...... IG at Con324.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Well done to Jo Swinson
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Jonathan said:

    Labour 200 votes ahead in Canterbury.

    If Labour win Canterbury it is going into the PB annals of history
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    East Dunbartonshire

    LD gain from SNP

    John Nicolson OUT
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    glw said:

    Chameleon said:


    kle4 said:

    Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.

    Hopefully Con will see what he's done and offer some things to the youth vote in the coming GE.
    I SHALL SPELL IT OUT IN ALL CAPS FOR CCHQ. GRADUATE TAX, IT'S "FAIR" AND IT CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY.
    There's already a graduate tax. 9% extra tax on all income above £20k. A graduate tax would also do fuck all to get the youth vote onside when Lab are offering free tuition.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs gain East Dunbartonshire from SNP.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Thrasher thrashing about on Sky, he's got no idea what the hell is happening. UNS is dead.
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Jo Swinson won?
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Renfrewshire East Tory gain!
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Floater said:

    I admit I am heading towards slightly pissed - am I alone ? :-)

    I had my last drink in 2005. There is however plenty of the stuff in the house. Not sure whether to put the cherry on top of a perfect day by falling off the wagon.
    Stay strong brother! Forget I mentioned it :-)
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Almighty klaxon!!!

    Swindon next lib dem leader odds?
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    KentRising said:

    Y0kel said:

    And the DUP have indeed taken South Antrim....

    Go the DUP team, topping up the Cons!
    SDLP done by Sinn Fein in Derry. 2 years ago I predicted this and lost...not this time....

    Understanding is that South Down has been lost too to Sinn Fein.

    That leaves Alaistair McDonnell for the SDLP in South Belfast..based on the Sinn Fein performance they are going to eat his vote away. With the DUP really doing well (Unionists got the message from the Assembly election debacle), it could well be a DUP'er seat. And if they do, my only recommended bet on here is going to be a nice winner.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sandpit said:

    Thrasher thrashing about on Sky, he's got no idea what the hell is happening. UNS is dead.

    Oh yes. UNS. Stick a fork in it.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    glw said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.

    The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
    Because of your spreadsheets I assume that everything you say is Gospel. But I don't understand why. :)
    another_richard said:

    Y0kel said:

    To be honest if the Tories polled 44-45% nationally again in 6 months, I doubt they'd fail to get a majority.

    Get rid of the dementia tax and promise £350m for the NHS.
    Throw in the single market membership too I think.
    Go for EFTA membership and the EEA. The Norway option that so many Brexit supporters wanted anyway.
    Excellent post.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    east Renfrewshire - what the fuck. SNP down to 167 votes.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    East Dumbartonshire lib dem win

    Nope. LD gain.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Almighty klaxon!!!

    Swindon next lib dem leader odds?

    If - as seems likely - Farron loses, then it is surely odds on.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    LDs gain East Dunbartonshire from SNP.

    Swinson next leader?!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Chameleon said:

    east Renfrewshire - what the fuck. SNP down to 167 votes.

    That must be a typo??
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited June 2017
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    East Dumbartonshire snp hold

    Blooming heck! Perhaps not such a good night for SLD after all - I know holyrood wasn't so good there, but it was their smallest drop nationally in 2015.

    Unionists getting mixed up again - has been very good elsewhere.

    Edit: Wait, they've won by a huge amount. Come on Big G
  • Drutt
    Drutt Posts: 1,125
    Putting the WIN in Swinson. £10 well spent.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Its houses.

    I've said it for years. We need to build MILLIONS of houses.
  • Carolus_Rex
    Carolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Jonathan said:

    Labour 200 votes ahead in Canterbury.

    Bloody hell.

    Well, if that is right then I owe Yougov an apology.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    HYUFD said:

    Renfrewshire East

    Conservative gain from SNP

    Fantastic!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Wow: huge Jo Swinson majority.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,734
    Sandpit said:

    Thrasher thrashing about on Sky, he's got no idea what the hell is happening. UNS is dead.

    I am taking all the updated seat projections with a massive grain of salt as I am pretty sure all the statos models are totally screwed with what has happened.
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    Swinson wins!

    What are you thinking? Tiny majority? Just short?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Theresa May looking extremely stressed there..
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    May's wearing her lucky Trump suit...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cannock Chase, Tory hold:

    Con +10.8%
    Lab +3.7%
    UKIP -13.2%
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Floater said:

    I admit I am heading towards slightly pissed - am I alone ? :-)

    Nope, not the only one.

  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    SouthamObserver said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.

    Yep, looks like the Midlands will save the Tories. But not the bloodbath I was expecting. Given results in other affluent Remain seats Warwick & Leamington might be close.


    And saved by Scotland! Wow... what an odd night. Jo Swinson for leader?
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    JosiasJessop said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    EDW20000 said:

    I am buying pounds call options, Brexit is doomed

    Nope. Brexit will go ahead. And probably be far better managed than it would have been because it won't be May calling the shots.
    Desperate straw-clutching.

    The country may well be in chaos.
    No straw clutching at all. With both Labour and the Tories committed to Brexit and the main Anti-Brexit parties getting slaughtered the only question is what sort. If you think this will change the eventual fact of us leaving you are sadly deluded.

    To be honest if we get to the end of the night with the Tories with a small majority and May on her way out that would be just about perfect for me.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    The SNP are getting hammered.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Jo Swinson new LD leader!!!
  • Monkeys
    Monkeys Posts: 798
    Mike's letter swung it for Jo Swinson
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Show me a post where you said that pre-referendum ?

    These are obvious potential consequences. You were warned.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Coventry South

    Lab +12.8
    Con +3.2
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872992445709119489
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Looks like County Durham is going to stay solidly Labour.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Casino_Royale said:

    Theresa May looking extremely stressed there..

    And well she might... She's done for!
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    ITV saying Vauxhall Lab hold, Kate Hoey back sadly
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Y0kel said:

    KentRising said:

    Y0kel said:

    And the DUP have indeed taken South Antrim....

    Go the DUP team, topping up the Cons!
    SDLP done by Sinn Fein in Derry. 2 years ago I predicted this and lost...not this time....

    Understanding is that South Down has been lost too to Sinn Fein.

    That leaves Alaistair McDonnell for the SDLP in South Belfast..based on the Sinn Fein performance they are going to eat his vote away. With the DUP really doing well (Unionists got the message from the Assembly election debacle), it could well be a DUP'er seat. And if they do, my only recommended bet on here is going to be a nice winner.

    I'm on that bet with thanks to you.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Please.

    I know it's unlikely.

    But please.

    May May lose.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    trawl said:

    One of the less mentioned reasons for May going for this GE was to have her own mandate, to get rid of the oft used "unelected PM" jibes. Stating the obvious but if she scrapes through but has to go, her replacement will have the same dilemma.

    There's no fecking way the PCP will ever allow a Tory PM to call a snap election.
    Yes, not without planning out a manifesto first that has been properly focus grouped. Any basic focus group would have spotted the house confiscation and the party would have binned it.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sky projecting 308-328 seats
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Go for EFTA membership and the EEA. The Norway option that so many Brexit supporters wanted anyway.

    That would probably work. It's more or less what Cameron should have recommended after his "negotiation" got nowhere.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I hope you all followed me in when I tipped SCON 9.5+ seats at 20/1 in a thread header?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    hunchman said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.

    I think we'll be able to avoid the latter, the union looks like it's been saved but Brexit is the big question. Hopefully we're heading for soft Brexit. Global Britain, I hope.
    We won't once the EU starts collapsing in fairly short order. The EU is fu**ed in so many ways.
    Yes, Beppe Grillo must have an excellent chance of becoming Italian PM next year if the populist wave continues there
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    The next leader of the Lib Dems wins her seat back.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    12 year old Tory the candidate in East Ren. Not even close, exit poll had it SLAB IIRC

    Trust me, Paul is a little older than he looks. He's a great addition to Parliament.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Don Valley Lab
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    edited June 2017
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Agreed. Not sticking two fingers up to foreigners on the cliffs of Dover and pandering to the Mail and Sun would be a decent start.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    How on earth have Labour gained High Peak? Such unfavourable demographics
  • spudgfsh
    spudgfsh Posts: 1,568
    https://twitter.com/IanClarke41/status/872992448355729409

    Normal Lamb could hold onto Norfolk North.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hastings and Rye must be on a knife-edge.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con now +1

    6 gains
    5 losses
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    How long before Nicola resigns - Malc having an early night by the looks of it
  • Blueberry
    Blueberry Posts: 408
    Lab hold Vauxhall - ITV
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Tuition fees back down to £3k.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872992445709119489

    An egregious incumbent.
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    High Peak (Derbyshire) lost by Tories. Was 5k majority.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    So happy for Jo Swinson.

    Cantebury: YouGov, I'm so sorry
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sinn Fein gain Foyle. Perhaps a sympathy vote to the memory of Martin McGuinness who used to be the SF candidate there for many elections.

    Middle-class Catholics / Nationalists are just sick of the endless scowling from Arlene Foster's unionism. The SDLP couldn't satisfy that demand and keep unionist tactical votes, it looks like they lost a bit of both.
    Thats balls, Sinn Fein were always going to do this, they've been wearing the SDLP down in Derry for near 8 years now., long before Arlene was on the scene.

    I thought they'd do it in 2015. I was two years out.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Pledge to immediately cut tuition fees to £3k and a lot would come back. Eliminate them completely for first time graduates would be even better.
  • Carolus_Rex
    Carolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    IanB2 said:

    Don Valley Lab

    Boo hiss.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    Swinson wins!

    What are you thinking? Tiny majority? Just short?
    Majority of 2 of 4.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Coventry South

    Lab +12.8
    Con +3.2

    Yes, young constituency. Shame for my Dad though as he worked it hard.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Pulpstar said:

    UGH Sinn Fein GAIN Foyle.

    Northern Ireland <.<</p>

    What a pity.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    david_herdson said:

    rottenborough said:

    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    She should go by lunchtime.

    But she might not.
    No, the rules for eligibility needs to change first.
    Ruthie?
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Radio Oxford reporting that LDs have taken Witney...
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Glasgow NE falls!
This discussion has been closed.

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