Didn't someone say that the constituency changes are going through unless altered by parliament? Would screw brexit but could the conservatives eek on u til the changes are confirmed with the DUP?
I admit I am heading towards slightly pissed - am I alone ? :-)
I had my last drink in 2005. There is however plenty of the stuff in the house. Not sure whether to put the cherry on top of a perfect day by falling off the wagon.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
Because of your spreadsheets I assume that everything you say is Gospel. But I don't understand why.
Traded out of the last of my Labour minority govt bet on Betfair at 8 - just in the nick of time. Layed most of my Cons minority govt too, as it's just possible they scrape a majority.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
I think we'll be able to avoid the latter, the union looks like it's been saved but Brexit is the big question. Hopefully we're heading for soft Brexit. Global Britain, I hope.
We won't once the EU starts collapsing in fairly short order. The EU is fu**ed in so many ways.
Sinn Fein gain Foyle. Perhaps a sympathy vote to the memory of Martin McGuinness who used to be the SF candidate there for many elections.
Middle-class Catholics / Nationalists are just sick of the endless scowling from Arlene Foster's unionism. The SDLP couldn't satisfy that demand and keep unionist tactical votes, it looks like they lost a bit of both.
Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.
Hopefully Con will see what he's done and offer some things to the youth vote in the coming GE.
I SHALL SPELL IT OUT IN ALL CAPS FOR CCHQ. GRADUATE TAX, IT'S "FAIR" AND IT CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY.
There's already a graduate tax. 9% extra tax on all income above £20k. A graduate tax would also do fuck all to get the youth vote onside when Lab are offering free tuition.
I admit I am heading towards slightly pissed - am I alone ? :-)
I had my last drink in 2005. There is however plenty of the stuff in the house. Not sure whether to put the cherry on top of a perfect day by falling off the wagon.
SDLP done by Sinn Fein in Derry. 2 years ago I predicted this and lost...not this time....
Understanding is that South Down has been lost too to Sinn Fein.
That leaves Alaistair McDonnell for the SDLP in South Belfast..based on the Sinn Fein performance they are going to eat his vote away. With the DUP really doing well (Unionists got the message from the Assembly election debacle), it could well be a DUP'er seat. And if they do, my only recommended bet on here is going to be a nice winner.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
Because of your spreadsheets I assume that everything you say is Gospel. But I don't understand why.
Blooming heck! Perhaps not such a good night for SLD after all - I know holyrood wasn't so good there, but it was their smallest drop nationally in 2015.
Unionists getting mixed up again - has been very good elsewhere.
Edit: Wait, they've won by a huge amount. Come on Big G
Thrasher thrashing about on Sky, he's got no idea what the hell is happening. UNS is dead.
I am taking all the updated seat projections with a massive grain of salt as I am pretty sure all the statos models are totally screwed with what has happened.
Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.
Yep, looks like the Midlands will save the Tories. But not the bloodbath I was expecting. Given results in other affluent Remain seats Warwick & Leamington might be close.
And saved by Scotland! Wow... what an odd night. Jo Swinson for leader?
Nope. Brexit will go ahead. And probably be far better managed than it would have been because it won't be May calling the shots.
Desperate straw-clutching.
The country may well be in chaos.
No straw clutching at all. With both Labour and the Tories committed to Brexit and the main Anti-Brexit parties getting slaughtered the only question is what sort. If you think this will change the eventual fact of us leaving you are sadly deluded.
To be honest if we get to the end of the night with the Tories with a small majority and May on her way out that would be just about perfect for me.
SDLP done by Sinn Fein in Derry. 2 years ago I predicted this and lost...not this time....
Understanding is that South Down has been lost too to Sinn Fein.
That leaves Alaistair McDonnell for the SDLP in South Belfast..based on the Sinn Fein performance they are going to eat his vote away. With the DUP really doing well (Unionists got the message from the Assembly election debacle), it could well be a DUP'er seat. And if they do, my only recommended bet on here is going to be a nice winner.
One of the less mentioned reasons for May going for this GE was to have her own mandate, to get rid of the oft used "unelected PM" jibes. Stating the obvious but if she scrapes through but has to go, her replacement will have the same dilemma.
There's no fecking way the PCP will ever allow a Tory PM to call a snap election.
Yes, not without planning out a manifesto first that has been properly focus grouped. Any basic focus group would have spotted the house confiscation and the party would have binned it.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
I think we'll be able to avoid the latter, the union looks like it's been saved but Brexit is the big question. Hopefully we're heading for soft Brexit. Global Britain, I hope.
We won't once the EU starts collapsing in fairly short order. The EU is fu**ed in so many ways.
Yes, Beppe Grillo must have an excellent chance of becoming Italian PM next year if the populist wave continues there
Sinn Fein gain Foyle. Perhaps a sympathy vote to the memory of Martin McGuinness who used to be the SF candidate there for many elections.
Middle-class Catholics / Nationalists are just sick of the endless scowling from Arlene Foster's unionism. The SDLP couldn't satisfy that demand and keep unionist tactical votes, it looks like they lost a bit of both.
Thats balls, Sinn Fein were always going to do this, they've been wearing the SDLP down in Derry for near 8 years now., long before Arlene was on the scene.
I thought they'd do it in 2015. I was two years out.
Comments
The country may well be in chaos.
Conservative Hold
Conservative hold
Layed most of my Cons minority govt too, as it's just possible they scrape a majority.
Osborn looking a bit more cheerful.
Labour hold
Labour hold
Northern Ireland <.<
!
Not buying it though.
19% in Wirral South
All hail YouGov.
LD gain from SNP
John Nicolson OUT
Swindon next lib dem leader odds?
Understanding is that South Down has been lost too to Sinn Fein.
That leaves Alaistair McDonnell for the SDLP in South Belfast..based on the Sinn Fein performance they are going to eat his vote away. With the DUP really doing well (Unionists got the message from the Assembly election debacle), it could well be a DUP'er seat. And if they do, my only recommended bet on here is going to be a nice winner.
Unionists getting mixed up again - has been very good elsewhere.
Edit: Wait, they've won by a huge amount. Come on Big G
I've said it for years. We need to build MILLIONS of houses.
Well, if that is right then I owe Yougov an apology.
Con +10.8%
Lab +3.7%
UKIP -13.2%
To be honest if we get to the end of the night with the Tories with a small majority and May on her way out that would be just about perfect for me.
These are obvious potential consequences. You were warned.
Lab +12.8
Con +3.2
I know it's unlikely.
But please.
May May lose.
Normal Lamb could hold onto Norfolk North.
6 gains
5 losses
Cantebury: YouGov, I'm so sorry
I thought they'd do it in 2015. I was two years out.