So those damn ukips .... who would have though they would split 50/50 to lab & con
It should be no surprise. It was well known thst many Labour WWC voters had gone UKIP. Did anyone really expect them to become Tories after UKIP collapsed?
Almost everyone on here.
I didn't. I did wonder how people expected Northern Kippers to split relative to Southern Kippers. Was obvious the split wasn't going to be the same way.
I even wonder in some northern seats whether UKIP withdrawing to support Pro-Brexit Tories actually made it harder for the Tory candidate to win, by keeping Red Kippers away from voting Labour!
One of the less mentioned reasons for May going for this GE was to have her own mandate, to get rid of the oft used "unelected PM" jibes. Stating the obvious but if she scrapes through but has to go, her replacement will have the same dilemma.
Best thing now is to suspend Brexit talks for 3 months and take negotiating position through parliament. Agree access to single market (not FoM) in return for an agreed exit bill and reciprocal citizens rights.
That may work - but the important thing is we need an agreed way forward.
I think it needs a referendum as well. Got to have public support or they will simply kick up another storm at the next election.
One of the less mentioned reasons for May going for this GE was to have her own mandate, to get rid of the oft used "unelected PM" jibes. Stating the obvious but if she scrapes through but has to go, her replacement will have the same dilemma.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
One of the less mentioned reasons for May going for this GE was to have her own mandate, to get rid of the oft used "unelected PM" jibes. Stating the obvious but if she scrapes through but has to go, her replacement will have the same dilemma.
There's no fecking way the PCP will ever allow a Tory PM to call a snap election.
Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.
Yep, looks like the Midlands will save the Tories. But not the bloodbath I was expecting. Given results in other affluent Remain seats Warwick & Leamington might be close.
Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.
Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.
Hopefully Con will see what he's done and offer some things to the youth vote in the coming GE.
Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
Yes, with soft Brexit. Tbh, it could be my ideal result!
Why would it be soft Brexit? The Tory members just watched Labour gorging on red meat while they go backwards with somebody a bit meh who didn't believe in Leave. Why would they be in a mood for moderation?
Winning a Tory leadership election will involve making all kinds of promises about standing up to these beastly foreigners and keeping the immigrants out, and once you're committed to all that stuff it's either Hard Brexit or Car Crash.
If the Tories were going for pure electoral appeal, they would pick Boris, Boris would then go all populist Berlusconi, dump austerity and go on a spending spree for the NHS, libraries, social care, police etc, slash taxes for middle income and lower income voters and go for hard Brexit and slash immigration with corporation tax slashed to 10% to attract companies here
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
I think we'll be able to avoid the latter, the union looks like it's been saved but Brexit is the big question. Hopefully we're heading for soft Brexit. Global Britain, I hope.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
Tories are level on seats. Three losses and three gains. 4.7 on Betfair for the majority is definitely value.
Even if the Tories by some miracle scrape some crazy small majority, they won't be able to get anything done.
Another election then? Problem is that I don't think this party is ready for an election anytime soon. Finances yes, but policy after what we saw in this manifesto? And if youth turnout is now a thing new policies will need to be looked at and that may take time.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
Because of your spreadsheets I assume that everything you say is Gospel. But I don't understand why.
Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.
Tories are level on seats. Three losses and three gains. 4.7 on Betfair for the majority is definitely value.
If the Tories do get a majority they will still potentially be in a better place than they were before the election. They've got an extra couple of years to deal with Brexit before the next election, and also at the next election they will be able to present Corbyn and his policies as a REALISTIC prospect to scare the Tory voters back.
Big churn in LD seats if Southport nd Sheffield Hallam are gone but LDs are up. They may be a very Scottish dominated party in the end result.
Lost Hallam to Labour, but gained Vauxhall (apparently).
The insane bit about Scotland is that the LDs will get only 7% of the Scottish vote, but more than 10% of the seats.
In England, they'll get 9% of the vote, but less than 1% of the seats.
Startling statistic - and could get 5% in Wales and 0% of seats?
The winner in Ceredgion will be on less than 30% of the vote. Most likely the LDs. But could be anyone.
Was looking at Ralling and Thrasher earlier - with the lowish turnout and very low winning percentage, one SDLP MP was elected by 14-15% of the total electorate.
Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.
quit so - the best cure for a corbyn govvie would be .... a corbyn govvie!!
Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.
Hopefully Con will see what he's done and offer some things to the youth vote in the coming GE.
I SHALL SPELL IT OUT IN ALL CAPS FOR CCHQ. GRADUATE TAX, IT'S "FAIR" AND IT CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY.
Comments
I even wonder in some northern seats whether UKIP withdrawing to support Pro-Brexit Tories actually made it harder for the Tory candidate to win, by keeping Red Kippers away from voting Labour!
Con 44.6
Lab 42.6
The insane bit about Scotland is that the LDs will get only 7% of the Scottish vote, but more than 10% of the seats.
In England, they'll get 9% of the vote, but less than 1% of the seats.
Conservative Hold
Con 49.4
Lab 44.5
Although my fear is we will be delaying the inevitable
I took out big insurance against Con losing majority.
Should I cash out - on basis politically it won't matter which side of line.
Labour need to calm down Midlands is looking bad.
330 was my view!
She may need the DUP for a supply and confidence deal now.
If she's very lucky, it'll be 5 years of hell for her.
SF gains also cutting number needed for working majority.
People want change.
Conservative hold
Labour hold
Democracy!
Conservative gain from SNP
Labour hold
Well this year they came third.