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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as

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  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour hold Wolverhampton South West.....
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Spreads: C313 L271 LD12 SNP31

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Paristonda Posts: 1,154
    2:21AM
    The_Apocalypse said:
    » show previous quotes
    It's a great thing for Britain.

    Paul Dacre right now :lol:
    Yes, that is one of the great take homes from this, whatever the final result. Proof that it is not the Sun 'wot' wins it

    Yep.

    I'm especially happy that the Mail's influence has proven to be limited though. I actually have concerns re security with Corbyn, but the Mail don't hate Corbyn because of that, they hate him simply because he is Labour leader. They hate any Labour leader, and any leftie.
    Yes they would have demonised any leader - and that is their problem. They aren't taken seriously. People just assumed it was the Mail being the Mail with that front page. The boy who cried wolf basically.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Southport goes blue
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    I've given up updating,,, Looks like the Conservatives are gaining in Scotland to match losses elsewhere almost though clearly May's strategy had failed. I think it's fine to attack but only if you have your own positive message.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    edited June 2017
    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672
    Southport lost by Lib Dems to Theresa May's Team
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    AndyJS said:

    Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.

    I'm with Andy on this....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Looking likely Amber Rudd has lost her Hastings & Rye seat.

    Another 5k majority blown away.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    AndyJS said:

    Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.

    Well, there won't be a free vote on fox hunting that's for sure!
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    labour hold Ynys Mon with big maj
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,525
    edited June 2017
    Southport goes from yellow to blue!

    Could the majority still be on?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    AndyJS said:

    Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.

    I voted TACTICALLY for the Tories here. I figured with urban-rural polarisation it might be important.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    EPG said:

    Southport lost by Lib Dems to Theresa May's Team

    A tory gain? :o:D:D:o
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited June 2017
    Nigel Dodds to rubber stamp every single Tory budget?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    As I said over 4 hours ago!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381
    kle4 said:

    When are these bloody LD seats coming in?

    Con gain SOUTHPORT!

    (I've been on the pier!)
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    They only have Boris, so should be quick
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Epping Forest

    Conservative Hold
  • AHMatlockAHMatlock Posts: 15
    Disappointing a night as this is as a Conservative, it is a great consolation to see the SNP go down in flames. Perhaps the Union is secure after all!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Winners: Corbyn & Davidson
    Losers: May & Sturgeon

    Winners - opposition leaders who promise the goodies
    Losers - government leaders who don't
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Heidi Allen is back!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    EPG said:

    Southport lost by Lib Dems to Theresa May's Team

    A gain in England!

    (and one I didn't want them to gain - I have the anti-midas touch, not May))
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Erewash

    Conservative Hold
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    llef said:

    labour hold Ynys Mon with big maj

    Huzzah had around £70 at 12-1 or so on that. Will pay for Clywd and Gower.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Glenrothes SNP hold
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249

    For the purpose of government-forming, wins off the SNP are as good for the Conservatives as wins off Labour. Wins off the Lib Dems are about half as good.

    Very well put.

    You must be a very happy man tonight!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    This is Ted Heath redux:

    "Who governs Britain?"

    Not you mate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Southend West

    Conservative hold
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Yeah.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: They're recounting AGAIN in Perth and North Perthshire...barely a cigarette paper between Pete Wishart and Ian Duncan twitter.com/PerthandKinros…
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    kle4 said:

    When are these bloody LD seats coming in?

    Con gain SOUTHPORT!

    (I've been on the pier!)
    Great news.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Yes, with soft Brexit. Tbh, it could be my ideal result!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    First LD seat to come up, and it is a loss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Come on TP, let's see a mahoosive swing against the tide

    Commiserations
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    Three months, but with Brexit negotiations starting in 10 days time, we'll have to go all magic circle/coronation.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    llef said:

    labour hold Ynys Mon with big maj

    Yes!!!

    Thanks to I believe @Pulpstar for the tip of this seat, big winner.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    So, how's that hopey changey Progressive Democrat centre ground new party looking?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: They're recounting AGAIN in Perth and North Perthshire...barely a cigarette paper between Pete Wishart and Ian Duncan twitter.com/PerthandKinros…

    Losing a 20k majority.... heart of stone etc.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    If May scrapes home with the results of Scottish Tories that's not going to play well for the good of the Union.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Con fightback on!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2017
    Con hold Blackpool North

    Lab hold Ynis Mon

    Lab hold Bolton North East
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Llanelli
    Labour hold
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    I dont think there will be an election...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Makerfield
    Labour hold
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: They're recounting AGAIN in Perth and North Perthshire...barely a cigarette paper between Pete Wishart and Ian Duncan twitter.com/PerthandKinros…

    Please please please - the projection is 322 and might depend on it!
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    LOL - Simon Danczuk received only 883 votes in Rochdale!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Montgomery
    Conservative hold
  • glwglw Posts: 10,005
    AHMatlock said:

    Disappointing a night as this is as a Conservative, it is a great consolation to see the SNP go down in flames. Perhaps the Union is secure after all!

    If it was almost anyone other than Corbyn leading Labour I'd almost be happy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    Three months, but with Brexit negotiations starting in 10 days time, we'll have to go all magic circle/coronation.
    Cameron leader from the Lords is my vote.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    ynys mon 12/1 :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    SCon wins in Argyl & Bute and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock would go some way to recouping my losses on SPIN.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pete Wishart 21 votes ahead now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Newton Abbot
    Conservative hold
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Labour GAIN Leeds NW

    KERCHING

    ...for me and many PBers – thanks to whoever it was who tipped it!!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Here's an irony. As the supposed UKIP gateway for lab voters to Tory voters falls apart, there seems to be a Scottish constituency snp gateway for lab to Tory.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Chris_A said:

    If May scrapes home with the results of Scottish Tories that's not going to play well for the good of the Union.

    Surely it would play very well?
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    Pulpstar said:

    llef said:

    labour hold Ynys Mon with big maj

    Huzzah had around £70 at 12-1 or so on that. Will pay for Clywd and Gower.
    12/1 pays for a lot of losers!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Reuters said earlier that May would stand down if she didn't get 320 seats? Sure I saw that posted on here.

    If she tries to hang on she will face a challenge.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528

    dazza said:

    So those damn ukips .... who would have though they would split 50/50 to lab & con

    It should be no surprise. It was well known thst many Labour WWC voters had gone UKIP. Did anyone really expect them to become Tories after UKIP collapsed?
    Almost everyone on here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Tories with DUP confidence. Christ if you wanted a centrist gov't, THAT ain't it.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Yes,

    May announces she'll tender resignation to HM in the morning IMHO.

    Confirms she'll start the Brexit ball rolling but will be handing over to her successor in the summer.

    Suspect it'll be Davis.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    She should go by lunchtime.

    But she might not.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    When are these bloody LD seats coming in?

    Con gain SOUTHPORT!

    (I've been on the pier!)
    Great news.
    Big churn in LD seats if Southport nd Sheffield Hallam are gone but LDs are up. They may be a very Scottish dominated party in the end result.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Whatever happened to the old days of General Elections when Labour would race into leads of 100 seats plus and watch it get whittled away through the night. Far too even in the declaration timings these days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Oxford East
    Labour hold
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    William_H said:

    dazza said:

    So those damn ukips .... who would have though they would split 50/50 to lab & con

    Have they actually done this, or have they just been cancelled out by new voters?
    I think its definitely some of ukip going to LAB, plus the youth surge. As Someone else noted on here, lots of these ukippers were originally labour.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    "conservatives doing a bit better than exit poll"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories gain Southport from LD:

    Con 18,541
    Lab 15,627
    LD 12,661
    UKIP 1,127
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Long way to go. Labour have got big holes in Midlands yorkshire
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    dixiedean said:

    dazza said:

    So those damn ukips .... who would have though they would split 50/50 to lab & con

    It should be no surprise. It was well known thst many Labour WWC voters had gone UKIP. Did anyone really expect them to become Tories after UKIP collapsed?
    Almost everyone on here.
    Well yes. Anecdotally I got this, and so did the models.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I did say at just after 10 you could hear the rubbing of hands at DUP HQ from about 6 miles away.

    To update, so far every DUP incumbent has rocked up big style. There are slight concerns over Upper Bann, which shouldn't be a concern at all, and North Belfast which is due in about 90 minutes.

    South Belfast will be interesting as will Soth Antrim, where the DUP looks have out in a strong challenge.

    At a minimum therefore it is likely to be 8..it could be 10.

    On the other side, if the SDLP are clean wiped, thats 3 seats off the left side of the Westminster column. Every SF win, 2..possibly 3 based on what we can gauge takes another square off the numbers to get a majority.

  • llefllef Posts: 301
    tories hold aberconwy
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,124

    This is Ted Heath redux:

    "Who governs Britain?"

    Not you mate.

    I did say it was the Bollocks to TINA election
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Yes,

    May announces she'll tender resignation to HM in the morning IMHO.

    Confirms she'll start the Brexit ball rolling but will be handing over to her successor in the summer.

    Suspect it'll be Davis.
    She'll resign as Tory leader and stay as PM
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Wycombe: not far short of a 9% CON to LAB swing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,927
    Floater said:

    "conservatives doing a bit better than exit poll"

    Not enough. This was an unforced GE.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Con now:

    5 gains
    5 losses
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Cons tipped to gain Walsall North
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    And the DUP have indeed taken South Antrim....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Sky Poll guy saying Tories on track for 322-327 based on results so far.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Wolverhampton South West

    Lab +6.1
    Con +3
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    Three months, but with Brexit negotiations starting in 10 days time, we'll have to go all magic circle/coronation.
    Who do you reckon?
    Will be one from Michael Fallon, Jeremy Hunt, David Davis.

    It won't be Boris.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    ITV suggesting Tories have gained Walsall North
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    jonny83 said:

    Reuters said earlier that May would stand down if she didn't get 320 seats? Sure I saw that posted on here.

    If she tries to hang on she will face a challenge.

    May who?

    If a tory minority govt forms it won't be led by May
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Next possible PM on Sky now.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    llef said:

    tories hold aberconwy

    That was previously claimed to be Lab
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Best thing now is to suspend Brexit talks for 3 months and take negotiating position through parliament. Agree access to single market (not FoM) in return for an agreed exit bill and reciprocal citizens rights.

    That may work - but the important thing is we need an agreed way forward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    While this is a bad night for the Tories, it does seem more likely now they will still be largest party, so technically if the current projection is right, then everyone has some positives to take away apart from the SNP (although they will still be largest party in Scotland) - Tories most popular single party, LDs gains, Lab gains.

    Obviously doesn't make it less of a grim result for complacent May and her strategists, who clearly ignored matters to listen to advisers saying how great they were doing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Mortimer said:

    RobD said:

    EDW20000 said:

    May must be writing her goodbye speech

    Without a doubt. How long do Tory leadership elections take again?
    I dont think there will be an election...
    You also thought the house confiscation policy wasn't a big deal. Sorry mate, your political judgement is completely out of kilter right now.
  • MattyNethMattyNeth Posts: 60
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Yes, with soft Brexit. Tbh, it could be my ideal result!
    Soft Brexit doesn't exist
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Labour GAIN Leeds NW

    KERCHING

    ...for me and many PBers – thanks to whoever it was who tipped it!!

    Kerching indeed - thanks for the tip on that. £150 up.

    Only about 750 down currently....

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,525
    Tory Majority now 4.7 on Betfair, I still think it's closer than that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    AndyJS said:

    Tories gain Southport from LD:

    Con 18,541
    Lab 15,627
    LD 12,661
    UKIP 1,127

    Called for Labour on ITV
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?
    Yes, with soft Brexit. Tbh, it could be my ideal result!
    Why would it be soft Brexit? The Tory members just watched Labour gorging on red meat while they go backwards with somebody a bit meh who didn't believe in Leave. Why would they be in a mood for moderation?

    Winning a Tory leadership election will involve making all kinds of promises about standing up to these beastly foreigners and keeping the immigrants out, and once you're committed to all that stuff it's either Hard Brexit or Car Crash.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    llef said:

    tories hold aberconwy

    It was being reported earlier that they'd lost it. Majority 635.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    AndyJS said:

    Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.

    Reassuring. But I will believe it when I see it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Labour GAIN Leeds NW

    KERCHING

    ...for me and many PBers – thanks to whoever it was who tipped it!!

    Really not seeing this LD 13 business even with a great night in Scotland potentially ahead.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Paristonda Posts: 1,154
    2:21AM
    The_Apocalypse said:
    » show previous quotes
    It's a great thing for Britain.

    Paul Dacre right now :lol:
    Yes, that is one of the great take homes from this, whatever the final result. Proof that it is not the Sun 'wot' wins it

    Yep.

    I'm especially happy that the Mail's influence has proven to be limited though. I actually have concerns re security with Corbyn, but the Mail don't hate Corbyn because of that, they hate him simply because he is Labour leader. They hate any Labour leader, and any leftie.
    The trad press was a busted flush anyway. Who buys physical newspapers these days? and the Mail website distracts with all the scandal down the RH side from whatever its editorial POV is. The one thing I have been bang right on all along is that this was a submarine war fought out of sight on social media.
This discussion has been closed.