politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as
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Didn't someone say that the constituency changes are going through unless altered by parliament? Would screw brexit but could the conservatives eek on u til the changes are confirmed with the DUP?0
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Congratulations Paul. I guess we'll need to recruit!0
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My SCON 6-10 bet is going to go over the top, isn't it?0
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Another one for Ruth, the saviour of the Conservative and Unionist Party!HYUFD said:Renfrewshire East
Conservative gain from SNP0 -
Desperate straw-clutching.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Brexit will go ahead. And probably be far better managed than it would have been because it won't be May calling the shots.EDW20000 said:I am buying pounds call options, Brexit is doomed
The country may well be in chaos.0 -
Harwick and Essex North
Conservative Hold0 -
Go for EFTA membership and the EEA. The Norway option that so many Brexit supporters wanted anyway.glw said:
Because of your spreadsheets I assume that everything you say is Gospel. But I don't understand why.AndyJS said:
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.SeanT said:Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
Throw in the single market membership too I think.another_richard said:
Get rid of the dementia tax and promise £350m for the NHS.Y0kel said:To be honest if the Tories polled 44-45% nationally again in 6 months, I doubt they'd fail to get a majority.
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Tunbridge Wells
Conservative hold0 -
Yes it does. FoM is the only thing stopping it.MattyNeth said:
Soft Brexit doesn't existMaxPB said:
Yes, with soft Brexit. Tbh, it could be my ideal result!edmundintokyo said:
Can't get a Coalition of Chaos out of that, so the Tories knife May and carry on, no?HYUFD said:BBC forecast
Cons 322
Lab 2610 -
Labour 200 votes ahead in Canterbury.0
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12 year old Tory the candidate in East Ren. Not even close, exit poll had it SLAB IIRC0
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Traded out of the last of my Labour minority govt bet on Betfair at 8 - just in the nick of time.
Layed most of my Cons minority govt too, as it's just possible they scrape a majority.
Osborn looking a bit more cheerful.0 -
Walthamstow
Labour hold0 -
We won't once the EU starts collapsing in fairly short order. The EU is fu**ed in so many ways.MaxPB said:
I think we'll be able to avoid the latter, the union looks like it's been saved but Brexit is the big question. Hopefully we're heading for soft Brexit. Global Britain, I hope.SeanT said:Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
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Bolton NE
Labour hold0 -
UGH Sinn Fein GAIN Foyle.
Northern Ireland <.<0 -
CNN expert says Tories will end up closer to 300 than to 326.
!
Not buying it though.0 -
well if Bernard lost his seat the sky would be falling inHYUFD said:Harwick and Essex North
Conservative Hold0 -
The levels of irony in this though.OblitusSumMe said:Looks like the Tories are going to just hang-on, helped by Sinn Fein making gains and reducing the threshold for a majority.
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Middle-class Catholics / Nationalists are just sick of the endless scowling from Arlene Foster's unionism. The SDLP couldn't satisfy that demand and keep unionist tactical votes, it looks like they lost a bit of both.AndyJS said:Sinn Fein gain Foyle. Perhaps a sympathy vote to the memory of Martin McGuinness who used to be the SF candidate there for many elections.
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East Dumbartonshire lib dem win0
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YouGov had it as a 92% probability Tory gain,another_richard said:
We were told that the LibDems were certain to hold Southport because they won every ward in the constituency last year.Typo said:So Lib Dems lost Southport but who gained it?
Well this year they came third.
All hail YouGov.0 -
12% majority for Labour in Wirral West
19% in Wirral South0 -
Spin suspended ...... IG at Con324.0
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Swinson wins!0
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Well done to Jo Swinson0
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If Labour win Canterbury it is going into the PB annals of historyJonathan said:Labour 200 votes ahead in Canterbury.
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East Dunbartonshire
LD gain from SNP
John Nicolson OUT0 -
There's already a graduate tax. 9% extra tax on all income above £20k. A graduate tax would also do fuck all to get the youth vote onside when Lab are offering free tuition.glw said:
I SHALL SPELL IT OUT IN ALL CAPS FOR CCHQ. GRADUATE TAX, IT'S "FAIR" AND IT CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY.Chameleon said:
Hopefully Con will see what he's done and offer some things to the youth vote in the coming GE.kle4 said:Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.
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Thrasher thrashing about on Sky, he's got no idea what the hell is happening. UNS is dead.0
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Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.0
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LDs gain East Dunbartonshire from SNP.0
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Jo Swinson won?0
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Renfrewshire East Tory gain!0
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Stay strong brother! Forget I mentioned it :-)Ishmael_Z said:
I had my last drink in 2005. There is however plenty of the stuff in the house. Not sure whether to put the cherry on top of a perfect day by falling off the wagon.Floater said:I admit I am heading towards slightly pissed - am I alone ? :-)
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Almighty klaxon!!!
Swindon next lib dem leader odds?0 -
SDLP done by Sinn Fein in Derry. 2 years ago I predicted this and lost...not this time....KentRising said:
Go the DUP team, topping up the Cons!Y0kel said:And the DUP have indeed taken South Antrim....
Understanding is that South Down has been lost too to Sinn Fein.
That leaves Alaistair McDonnell for the SDLP in South Belfast..based on the Sinn Fein performance they are going to eat his vote away. With the DUP really doing well (Unionists got the message from the Assembly election debacle), it could well be a DUP'er seat. And if they do, my only recommended bet on here is going to be a nice winner.
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Excellent post.Richard_Tyndall said:
Go for EFTA membership and the EEA. The Norway option that so many Brexit supporters wanted anyway.glw said:
Because of your spreadsheets I assume that everything you say is Gospel. But I don't understand why.AndyJS said:
The results aren't as bad for the Tories as people are implying.SeanT said:Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
Throw in the single market membership too I think.another_richard said:
Get rid of the dementia tax and promise £350m for the NHS.Y0kel said:To be honest if the Tories polled 44-45% nationally again in 6 months, I doubt they'd fail to get a majority.
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east Renfrewshire - what the fuck. SNP down to 167 votes.0
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Nope. LD gain.Big_G_NorthWales said:East Dumbartonshire lib dem win
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If - as seems likely - Farron loses, then it is surely odds on.Scrapheap_as_was said:Almighty klaxon!!!
Swindon next lib dem leader odds?0 -
Blooming heck! Perhaps not such a good night for SLD after all - I know holyrood wasn't so good there, but it was their smallest drop nationally in 2015.Big_G_NorthWales said:East Dumbartonshire snp hold
Unionists getting mixed up again - has been very good elsewhere.
Edit: Wait, they've won by a huge amount. Come on Big G0 -
Putting the WIN in Swinson. £10 well spent.0
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Bloody hell.Jonathan said:Labour 200 votes ahead in Canterbury.
Well, if that is right then I owe Yougov an apology.0 -
Its houses.Casino_Royale said:Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.
I've said it for years. We need to build MILLIONS of houses.0 -
Wow: huge Jo Swinson majority.0
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I am taking all the updated seat projections with a massive grain of salt as I am pretty sure all the statos models are totally screwed with what has happened.Sandpit said:Thrasher thrashing about on Sky, he's got no idea what the hell is happening. UNS is dead.
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Theresa May looking extremely stressed there..0
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May's wearing her lucky Trump suit...0
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Cannock Chase, Tory hold:
Con +10.8%
Lab +3.7%
UKIP -13.2%0 -
And saved by Scotland! Wow... what an odd night. Jo Swinson for leader?SouthamObserver said:
Yep, looks like the Midlands will save the Tories. But not the bloodbath I was expecting. Given results in other affluent Remain seats Warwick & Leamington might be close.AndyJS said:Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.
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No straw clutching at all. With both Labour and the Tories committed to Brexit and the main Anti-Brexit parties getting slaughtered the only question is what sort. If you think this will change the eventual fact of us leaving you are sadly deluded.JosiasJessop said:
Desperate straw-clutching.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Brexit will go ahead. And probably be far better managed than it would have been because it won't be May calling the shots.EDW20000 said:I am buying pounds call options, Brexit is doomed
The country may well be in chaos.
To be honest if we get to the end of the night with the Tories with a small majority and May on her way out that would be just about perfect for me.0 -
The SNP are getting hammered.0
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Jo Swinson new LD leader!!!0
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Mike's letter swung it for Jo Swinson0
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Show me a post where you said that pre-referendum ?Casino_Royale said:Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.
These are obvious potential consequences. You were warned.0 -
Coventry South
Lab +12.8
Con +3.20 -
Looks like County Durham is going to stay solidly Labour.0
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And well she might... She's done for!Casino_Royale said:Theresa May looking extremely stressed there..
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ITV saying Vauxhall Lab hold, Kate Hoey back sadly0
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I'm on that bet with thanks to you.Y0kel said:
SDLP done by Sinn Fein in Derry. 2 years ago I predicted this and lost...not this time....KentRising said:
Go the DUP team, topping up the Cons!Y0kel said:And the DUP have indeed taken South Antrim....
Understanding is that South Down has been lost too to Sinn Fein.
That leaves Alaistair McDonnell for the SDLP in South Belfast..based on the Sinn Fein performance they are going to eat his vote away. With the DUP really doing well (Unionists got the message from the Assembly election debacle), it could well be a DUP'er seat. And if they do, my only recommended bet on here is going to be a nice winner.0 -
Please.
I know it's unlikely.
But please.
May May lose.0 -
Yes, not without planning out a manifesto first that has been properly focus grouped. Any basic focus group would have spotted the house confiscation and the party would have binned it.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's no fecking way the PCP will ever allow a Tory PM to call a snap election.trawl said:One of the less mentioned reasons for May going for this GE was to have her own mandate, to get rid of the oft used "unelected PM" jibes. Stating the obvious but if she scrapes through but has to go, her replacement will have the same dilemma.
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Sky projecting 308-328 seats0
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That would probably work. It's more or less what Cameron should have recommended after his "negotiation" got nowhere.Richard_Tyndall said:Go for EFTA membership and the EEA. The Norway option that so many Brexit supporters wanted anyway.
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I hope you all followed me in when I tipped SCON 9.5+ seats at 20/1 in a thread header?0
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Yes, Beppe Grillo must have an excellent chance of becoming Italian PM next year if the populist wave continues therehunchman said:
We won't once the EU starts collapsing in fairly short order. The EU is fu**ed in so many ways.MaxPB said:
I think we'll be able to avoid the latter, the union looks like it's been saved but Brexit is the big question. Hopefully we're heading for soft Brexit. Global Britain, I hope.SeanT said:Call me Mr Political Geekypants, but this is an incredibly compelling election. So much of our national future depends on the nuances of every single constituency result - from the Union to Brexit to possible communist takeover.
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The next leader of the Lib Dems wins her seat back.0
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Trust me, Paul is a little older than he looks. He's a great addition to Parliament.kle4 said:12 year old Tory the candidate in East Ren. Not even close, exit poll had it SLAB IIRC
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Don Valley Lab0
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Agreed. Not sticking two fingers up to foreigners on the cliffs of Dover and pandering to the Mail and Sun would be a decent start.Casino_Royale said:Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.
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How on earth have Labour gained High Peak? Such unfavourable demographics0
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0
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Hastings and Rye must be on a knife-edge.0
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Con now +1
6 gains
5 losses0 -
How long before Nicola resigns - Malc having an early night by the looks of it0
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Lab hold Vauxhall - ITV0
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Tuition fees back down to £3k.Casino_Royale said:Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.
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An egregious incumbent.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
High Peak (Derbyshire) lost by Tories. Was 5k majority.0
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So happy for Jo Swinson.
Cantebury: YouGov, I'm so sorry
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Thats balls, Sinn Fein were always going to do this, they've been wearing the SDLP down in Derry for near 8 years now., long before Arlene was on the scene.EPG said:
Middle-class Catholics / Nationalists are just sick of the endless scowling from Arlene Foster's unionism. The SDLP couldn't satisfy that demand and keep unionist tactical votes, it looks like they lost a bit of both.AndyJS said:Sinn Fein gain Foyle. Perhaps a sympathy vote to the memory of Martin McGuinness who used to be the SF candidate there for many elections.
I thought they'd do it in 2015. I was two years out.0 -
Pledge to immediately cut tuition fees to £3k and a lot would come back. Eliminate them completely for first time graduates would be even better.Casino_Royale said:Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.
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Boo hiss.IanB2 said:Don Valley Lab
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Yes, young constituency. Shame for my Dad though as he worked it hard.AndreaParma_82 said:Coventry South
Lab +12.8
Con +3.20 -
Glasgow NE falls!0
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Shinners finally gain Foyle0
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Radio Oxford reporting that LDs have taken Witney...0