politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister,
Comments
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It might be the Scottish gains that keep Con as the largest party0
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So people didn't vote for May because they thought May would win and wanted that?HYUFD said:
Yes, this was a vote against further cuts for public services primarily, people felt Brexit was done and dusted, May would win and immigration could fall so they could vote against yet more austerity and shift from UKIP to Labour, not simply the Tories as most of us thought (including I admit myself). Now with the nature of Brexit up in the air again and perhaps no new immigration controls at all UKIP is back on again as a political force and Farage must surely return to the leadership if it is soft Brexitnumbertwelve said:
Its the NHS and public services. The NHS won it for Brexit, it looks like it will win it for Labour this time.GIN1138 said:
That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)TravelJunkie said:George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns
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16% swing in Angus. SNP to Con, it's like 2015 in reverse.0
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Gordon Brown redux.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
SCON gain Angus! One ray of sunshine.....0
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Plaid hold in Arfon by 103 votes. Labour calls for a recount
Recount also in Aberconwy0 -
The Tories did way too much attacking and way too little explaining why they had called the election and why they should be re-elected and what they intended to do with BrexitFrancisUrquhart said:The Tories never attacking Labour on the magic money forest was bizarre.
What I never understand was why they didn't just make good on the £350 a million extra a week for the NHS (or a figure close to that).
If they said by 2025 or so i.e. when Brexit concluded, with inflation it wouldn't even be a particularly big jump.
Would have been an easy policy to spin. Could have had Boris and co doing their dance again.0 -
Make Ruth Davidson leader now!0
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Tartan Tories will save May0
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Someone senior in the Tory party, can't remember who, said if they lost 6 seats Corbyn would be PM. We should trust them on that. Who was it again? Theresa someone?Jason said:Come on guys. We are a very long way indeed from Corbyn PM. The maths just aren't there for Labour.
I'm sure you wouldn't want us to think she was lying.0 -
Boris surely can't be Tory leader. If the Tories are getting smashed in London because of Brexit, electing the unofficial mascot of the Leave campaign ain't going to fly.0
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Tory gain Angus
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I was saying that the shire majorities were crumbling...Ishmael_Z said:
A heads up on that this time yesterday would have been valuable...GIN1138 said:
Yep. May actually got herself into a position where she was promising to keep the WFA for Scotland and letting her own voters in England have it snatched off them!MaxPB said:
Yes, it's all down to Theresa trying to steal people's houses.GIN1138 said:
That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)TravelJunkie said:George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns
The anger this provoked in the Shires was unbelievable.
And then there's the Dementia tax...0 -
Predicted hung parliament in 2015EDW20000 said:First rule of vote club, believe the exit poll
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LOL. Again, need I remind you of previous posts?Casino_Royale said:
Easy, don't get personal mate.JosiasJessop said:
The problem is you track record is of supporting every possible outcome simultaneously. You are a Schrodinger's Car poster.SeanT said:
Eh? I fully admit I am absurdly bipolar but I've been clear from the start that I wanted Soft Brexit, and abhorred Hard Brexit, and I entirely lost confidence in Theresa May when she announced her Manifesto, as I said on here (and PB-ers will attest)JosiasJessop said:
I bet you can show me loads of posts in your diarrhetic output that shows that?SeanT said:Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.
Hang on, you post every possible view nightly.
If you want your political comments to be taken seriously you should take this to heart.
In fact, the same applies to your so-called sad sex-life, you lonely, hopeless soul.
No need.
I know you're hurting. Perhaps you should have listened.
And BTW, I don't need a job.0 -
I don't think attacking on the Majic money tree would have helped actually. I know many people who work in the public sector, people are really really hurting right now.FrancisUrquhart said:The Tories never attacking Labour on the magic money forest was bizarre.
What I never understand was why they didn't just make good on the £350 a million extra a week for the NHS (or a figure close to that).
If they said by 2025 or so i.e. when Brexit concluded, with inflation it wouldn't even be a particularly big jump.
Would have been an easy policy to spin. Could have had Boris and co doing their dance again.
They should of campaigned on £8 billion for the NHS etc. They had other popular policies aswell but didn't bother.
MAY MUST GO TOMMOROW.0 -
Con hold Yeovil0
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BBC National voteshare projection so far
Labour +8%
Tories+7%
LD -1%
UKIP -12%
Green -1%0 -
I said that.Dougie said:I wonder if Alastair Meeks had it right a few weeks ago. Tory manifesto should have been Brexit plus £350 million per week for the NHS, and not much else.
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Working her charms.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You wanted "diamond hard" brexit and war with Germany a few weeks ago. You're all over the place like a mad woman's shit.SeanT said:
Eh? I fully admit I am absurdly bipolar but I've been clear from the start that I wanted Soft Brexit, and abhorred Hard Brexit, and I entirely lost confidence in Theresa May when she announced her Manifesto, as I said on here (and PB-ers will attest)JosiasJessop said:
I bet you can show me loads of posts in your diarrhetic output that shows that?SeanT said:Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.
Hang on, you post every possible view nightly.0 -
But it's wrong.EDW20000 said:First rule of vote club, believe the exit poll
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@AidanKerrTweets: Five Scottish seats declared #GE2017.
Tory vote UP 12%
Lab vote UP 0.9%
Lib Dem vote UP 1.2%
SNP DOWN 14%0 -
She spent a lot of her time in the Labour heartlands as well didn't she? A bit Hillaryesque - she spent her time in red states and ignored her base too.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The Tory MP from Angus looks like my wife!!!0
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Excellent result for the Tories in Yeovil.
Con +12.0%
LD -3.4%
Lab +5.4%0 -
Massive increased majority in Yeovil.0
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Lab falling just a bit short in so many placesAndreaParma_82 said:Plaid hold in Arfon by 103 votes. Labour calls for a recount
Recount also in Aberconwy
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With Brexit and Corbyn I think the drinks should be on you, Sandy and BJOold_labour said:Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth are sane Labour supporters going to do if Corbyn does become PM?
Rejoice!Richard_Nabavi said:What on earth are sane Labour supporters going to do if Corbyn does become PM?
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Apparently Labour is going to hold Birmingham Edgbaston again.0
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May == Clinton.AR404 said:
It's almost like she wanted to lose, couldn't have done anything more to get to this position.Essexit said:I'm not prepared. How did Theresa stuff this up so badly? She could have just made and promoted some positive policies, turned up to some more debates, not run an absurd presidential-style campaign, not banged on about foxhunting and social care. The opportunity was there to smash the Labour Party for a generation and she squandered it.
Entitled. Too important to get stuck in properly.
Touring the safe seats of the enemy whilst your backyard is going the other way.
Still, to be fair to Clinton, there had to be an election. May decided to bring this upon herself.0 -
Another strong result in Yeovil. Things ticking up a little maybe?0
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@JamieRoss7: Drama. Perth and North Perthshire, where the SNP's Pete Wishart had a 10,000 majority, has gone to a recount.0
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I'd start with Lynton Crosbynunu said:
I don't think attacking on the Majic money tree would have helped actually. I know many people who work in the public sector, people are really really hurting right now.FrancisUrquhart said:The Tories never attacking Labour on the magic money forest was bizarre.
What I never understand was why they didn't just make good on the £350 a million extra a week for the NHS (or a figure close to that).
If they said by 2025 or so i.e. when Brexit concluded, with inflation it wouldn't even be a particularly big jump.
Would have been an easy policy to spin. Could have had Boris and co doing their dance again.
They should of campaigned on £8 billion for the NHS etc. They had other popular policies aswell but didn't bother.
MAY MUST GO TOMMOROW.0 -
Angus a bloody good result, SNP since 1987.0
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Mmmm yes.Scott_P said:@AidanKerrTweets: Five Scottish seats declared #GE2017.
Tory vote UP 12%
Lab vote UP 0.9%
Lib Dem vote UP 1.2%
SNP DOWN 14%0 -
Truth is even right now I still don't understand what made May do it. Obviously the polls looked good, but where was the preparation?IanB2 said:The Tories did way too much attacking and way too little explaining why they had called the election and why they should be re-elected and what they intended to do with Brexit
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Nobody in the party will have a higher standing than her if that happens.not_on_fire said:It might be the Scottish gains that keep Con as the largest party
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Not really, it was May and her team who ran this shit campaign and who came out with these shit policies, but also who backed hard Brexit to win UKIP votes while others said go for centrist Brexit to win votes in the centre. She and her team take the blame for this failure.JosiasJessop said:
This is all the fault of Brexiters. It was totally avoidable.MaxPB said:
Our campaign completely failed to drag Labour into the same Hard Brexit box as us. Labour became an easy choice for remain voters and even soft Brexit UKIP/Tory Leavers voters.TheScreamingEagles said:My Lib Dem friend in Sheffield Hallam says Clegg's a gonner.
Odd UKIP to Lab swing!
The campaign was just horrible.
Still, at least you're away from it all, eh?0 -
Burnley
Lab 46.7
Con 31
LD 150 -
I think she will but you cannot walk out and leave a vacuumnunu said:
I don't think attacking on the Majic money tree would have helped actually. I know many people who work in the public sector, people are really really hurting right now.FrancisUrquhart said:The Tories never attacking Labour on the magic money forest was bizarre.
What I never understand was why they didn't just make good on the £350 a million extra a week for the NHS (or a figure close to that).
If they said by 2025 or so i.e. when Brexit concluded, with inflation it wouldn't even be a particularly big jump.
Would have been an easy policy to spin. Could have had Boris and co doing their dance again.
They should of campaigned on £8 billion for the NHS etc. They had other popular policies aswell but didn't bother.
MAY MUST GO TOMMOROW.0 -
Angus
Conservative GAIN from SNP0 -
Won't be looking for any Lib Dem gains in west country after that Yeovil result.0
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Absolutely distressed. Catastrophy for the country on so many levels, economic, social and moral,,,,,
....but wow......the power of our democratic system....for some reason I cannot fathom tbe consensus seems to have shifted towards another view..... and the country will follow....cant deny it is impressive0 -
Doubt we are going to have many grammar schools opening anytime soon0
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Con gain Angus!0
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If true, surely that makes Corbyn PM look very likely?TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/FrankThomas27/status/872971706276753408
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Please please please....Scott_P said:@JamieRoss7: Drama. Perth and North Perthshire, where the SNP's Pete Wishart had a 10,000 majority, has gone to a recount.
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Can someone please explain "Brexit is dead" to me? I can see an argument re Hard Brexit, but No Brexit full stop?KentRising said:If it's a Labour minority, expect Farage to be UKIP leader again by Christmas.
Both Labour and Tories have promised to deliver Brexit, albeit with various degrees of enthusiasm. Both parties have built voting coalitions that are partially reliant on Leavers.
So what, precisely, is the mechanism whereby Brexit is going to be killed?
Winning party revokes campaign promise, decides to cancel Brexit unilaterally. (Article 50 may have been served, but likely EU would prefer Britain back in the fold.) In this event, surely all hell breaks loose - likely from previous polling that we see UKIP up above 20%, quite possibly 30%+. Leave voters will abandon the betraying party, which would be particularly dangerous if there is another election in the air. (Which there likely would be if there is no solid majority. And scrapping Brexit makes a further election more likely, in the sense that if Brexit was still on, then the negotiation time limit would pressure against an early election.)
Winning party partially revokes campaign promise, puts A50 "on ice", arranges long-term postponement of the issue with the EU, the whole thing dies in the long grass. I find this even less plausible than the above - the political and economic uncertainty it brings about would be a killer, and it has many of the "betrayal" problems of the above.
Winning party partially revokes campaign promise, proposes second referendum (perhaps as part of coalition deal with Lib Dems, for example). Massive risk for whoever calls it, especially if the country votes Leave again. There doesn't seem to be much appetite for another referendum, and there is still the issue of whoever calls for the referendum to be stained as "betrayers" by the leave-supporting component of their support (albeit less of a problem than if they scrapped A50 unilaterally).
Hung parliament produces new election. One of the major parties gambles on putting "Remain" in the manifesto, and wins mandate. UK welcomed back to EU fold. But whoever did this would be taking a huge risk going into new elections, because both Tories and Labour have been trying to milk the ex-Kipper vote and in a close election why would you cut off one component of your support?
Is there a scenario that I've missed? When people say the election is going to kill Brexit, which of these are they thinking of?0 -
She didn't visit any!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Norfolk South
Con hold0 -
Still, at least he'll be shaggingemptying his bank account to some worthy youngster!Theuniondivvie said:
Tbf there were a few 'Cry God for Harry, England, and Saint George, & we'll ram our diamond hard Brexit up your garlicky arses' moments.SeanT said:
Eh? I fully admit I am absurdly bipolar but I've been clear from the start that I wanted Soft Brexit, and abhorred Hard Brexit, and I entirely lost confidence in Theresa May when she announced her Manifesto, as I said on here (and PB-ers will attest)JosiasJessop said:
I bet you can show me loads of posts in your diarrhetic output that shows that?SeanT said:Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.
Hang on, you post every possible view nightly.
And not his children.0 -
Again the Tories piling it up in a safeish seat.Typo said:Another strong result in Yeovil. Things ticking up a little maybe?
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I think you've lost your marbles, Kle. I thought you were one of the sensible ones here.kle4 said:
You said it wouldn't get to this point in the first place (as did I), soI think I'll go with what I see of the trend- Wales is underperforming for Con on the exit poll, safe seats are being turned into marginals in England, and while they'll hold some, they're losing a whole bunch more, and too many for SCON to make up for. Lab have allies in the SNP and LDs (or at least willing to deal), Con have no one to deal with but SUP.Jason said:Come on guys. We are a very long way indeed from Corbyn PM. The maths just aren't there for Labour.
Thus, Corbyn PM - May won't be able to pass a budget.0 -
May's political career is thoroughly dead.0
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Yeovil - I've piled on the Tories all over the SW (Not Yeovil) so I'm glas about that.
On the yellow peril in Bath and Cheltenham
On the Tories in St Ives, that might be close.0 -
LD gains not coming from the SW then!Chameleon said:Massive increased majority in Yeovil.
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Newport East Labour hold0
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I can attest that in the immediacy of Brexit he was very clear on very soft brexit - the switches were clearly reactions to european and remainer comments.Dura_Ace said:
You wanted "diamond hard" brexit and war with Germany a few weeks ago. You're all over the place like a mad woman's shit.SeanT said:
Eh? I fully admit I am absurdly bipolar but I've been clear from the start that I wanted Soft Brexit, and abhorred Hard Brexit, and I entirely lost confidence in Theresa May when she announced her Manifesto, as I said on here (and PB-ers will attest)JosiasJessop said:
I bet you can show me loads of posts in your diarrhetic output that shows that?SeanT said:Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.
Hang on, you post every possible view nightly.0 -
Yeovil and Angus great for the Cons0
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Yes I think she is a good MP and competent minister.Bobajob_PB said:
I like Justine and didn't want her to lose her seat.JonathanD said:Well done Greening. At least now you can tell May to get lost with her grammar school nonsense
Congratulations to her for hanging on.0 -
Labour hold Newport east0
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Castle Point
Conservative hold0 -
If there is a god...RobD said:
Please please please....Scott_P said:@JamieRoss7: Drama. Perth and North Perthshire, where the SNP's Pete Wishart had a 10,000 majority, has gone to a recount.
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This is why people voted Labour - the Right-wing press cried wolf one too many times.
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/872789943898263552
And now that McMao's cleared that up, any anxieties I had over this LVT tax can now die.
I hate the right-wing press....0 -
Dundee East
SNP hold
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You guys dont get it. I am as fiscally conservative as they come but banging on about jobs created would not have cut it as people have not had a pay rise for nearly a decade now, and are suffering from cuts in the wrong places like police and mental health.GarethoftheVale2 said:
It's astonishing they didn't even mention the low unemployment figures. To lose sats when so strongly ahead on the economy.MaxPB said:
Indeed. The Tories gave up the economy way too early and easily.EDW20000 said:Tories concentrating on Corby and the IRA was idiotic.
Who under 30 gives a toss about they IRA?
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She might not be aroundPolruan said:
Someone senior in the Tory party, can't remember who, said if they lost 6 seats Corbyn would be PM. We should trust them on that. Who was it again? Theresa someone?Jason said:Come on guys. We are a very long way indeed from Corbyn PM. The maths just aren't there for Labour.
I'm sure you wouldn't want us to think she was lying.0 -
Yeovil
Conservative hold0 -
Torfaen
Lab +12,9
Con +7.8
Plaid -0,4
Newport East
Lab +15.8
Con +7.50 -
36 votes in it for Pete Wishart0
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Folkestone and Hythe
Conservative hold0 -
Rebecca Harris 67.2% vote castle point0
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Me too.Casino_Royale said:
I said that.Dougie said:I wonder if Alastair Meeks had it right a few weeks ago. Tory manifesto should have been Brexit plus £350 million per week for the NHS, and not much else.
I remember writing that the Tories needed to pledge £350m per week by the end of 2022. It was literally the election winning policy. Instead we got fucking house theft.0 -
@PolhomeEditor: Confirmed: Philip Davies has lost to Labour in Shipley #GE20170
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Cry wolf.
Ed Miliband the Labour leader in 2015 had a broad range of policies that were not a million miles off of what Theresa May has in her SDP-Tory hybrid manifesto to bring onboard working class Labour voters.
The press went after him as they have with every Labour leader forever (Except Blair) - Red Ed, mocking him for the way he ate, his late father being disgustingly attacked as a danger to the country and somehow this impacting on Miliband's standing himself. I also remember the Alex Salmond posters, not the ones portraying Ed in his pocket, but one in Broxtowe where he was shown as a burglar. He of course is nothing of the sort, and the advert for me crossed the line - however as the ASA can't regulate political advertising it could go through.
Of course Ed Miliband was emphatically NOT a danger to the country if he had attained power we'd have had no EU referendum, and Jeremy Corbyn would not be leader of the Labour party.
Anyway Ed was beaten by David and that was all history.
Fast forward to 2017 - Labour through its own incompetence now has a man who is threatening to do a left wing Donald Trump to the country, a tub thumping "For the Many not the Few" machine that has defied all political logic about how campaigns should be run, and like Trump certainly NOT playing by the established media rules. He doesn't use twitter too much himself, but his acolytes and followers do - and I have noticed that once someone succumbs to the Corbyn tendency doesn't give it up too easily. May has called an election that seems far tougher than it ought at the start, and the adoration for Corbyn amongst the young is palpable.
Moreover, he's enjoying the campaign - and I believe the Tory tools that are being thrown at him by their friends in the right wing press are simply not as effective as they should be. Jeremy Corbyn claims to be a man of peace, but he has sympathised far more readily with Britain's enemies than he has with our friends. He did give succour to the IRA, and his right hand man, John McDonnell's comments should make the whole package completely unelectable. Mo Mowlam he is NOT.
But there is a problem. The buckets of slime that were poured over Ed Miliband's head in 2015 are being chucked by the same news outlets again at Corbyn. It looks like the same monstering even though the two crimes they commit are very different - one couldn't quite eat a bacon sandwich correctly, the other finds Hezbollah a respectable organisation.
The right wing press just may have cried wolf one too many times, and perhaps the public are dismissing the warnings because of this.
Corbyn I believe will stay on even with defeat, particularly if Ed Miliband's vote total is increased (I think this will be the case now), and the movement will grow and grow. The redtops - who proclaimed our High Court judges "Enemies of the people" will have no effect on him going forward. In fact they just make his appeal greater.0 -
The Tory vote looks to be very inefficient.
Labour's looks highly efficient.
So far.0 -
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That's a huge win for LabourScott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Confirmed: Philip Davies has lost to Labour in Shipley #GE2017
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Of course not, LD voters like me in the SW switched to CON! About the only ones who have.Paristonda said:
LD gains not coming from the SW then!Chameleon said:Massive increased majority in Yeovil.
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Oh my.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Confirmed: Philip Davies has lost to Labour in Shipley #GE2017
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Loss or Hold for him?Scott_P said:36 votes in it for Pete Wishart
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Tories reduce Labour majority by about 1,000 in Wolverhampton North East.0
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HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHHAHHAHAAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHAScott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Confirmed: Philip Davies has lost to Labour in Shipley #GE2017
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