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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister,

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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    What Conservative party ever expressly threatens to take your bought and paid for house if you get old and sick.......even I spotted that one. .....FFS
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,606

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    He must be laughing his tits off.
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.

    Yes, May is gone by Monday. No chance she holds on now.
    By Monday? Generous!
    She'll be gone by the end of the day.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    I'm not prepared. How did Theresa stuff this up so badly? She could have just made and promoted some positive policies, turned up to some more debates, not run an absurd presidential-style campaign, not banged on about foxhunting and social care. The opportunity was there to smash the Labour Party for a generation and she squandered it.
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Dear fucking God
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    Have Con gained Bootle yet?

    #justaskin'
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Green member in Bath who has been at the count reckons Lib Dems by 1-2,000
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Labour HOLD Ealing Central & Acton

    Was an ultra marginal.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    11 seats by this time in 2015. 37 now. It'll all be over bar the shouting by 3am.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,288
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.

    As a Remainer myself, then what was the point of Brexit? We may as well have stayed in the EU where we were out of the Euro anyway. Staying in the single market with free movement unchecked and big payments to the EU (as the EU will demand for soft Brexit) is basically no real change from where we were in the EU anyway. The only result will be to see UKIP make a quicker recovery than Lazarus. Soft Brexit it may be and I have no problem myself with that but I think some of those UKIP voters who clearly went to Labour tonight thinking Brexit was settled with tough new migration controls and they could vote against austerity may now start to move back to UKIP. UKIP voters who have moved to the Tories may also swiftly move back, the Tories may regain some centrist voters in the South though
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SeanT said:

    The hatred for Theresa May and Nick Timothy in Tory circles must now be around 189.45 on a scale of 1 to 5.

    LOL - the sort of thing I say to my kids :-)
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    I was surprised that everyone was saying Tory win on the doorstep. In London, there was never a Tory surge. Clear that was true.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Paisley one the Unionists should have won but the vote split.

    Glasgow is a more clear cut battle. Straight SLAB vs SNP.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Will the Tories hold Aldershot - on that at 1-14 !!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    SeanT said:

    The hatred for Theresa May and Nick Timothy in Tory circles must now be around 189.45 on a scale of 1 to 5.


    Cube 189.45 and you may be close.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    Con hold Harlow

    Good. Halfon is a superb representative of his constituents.

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,858
    FF43 said:

    Interesting. SNP hold onto Paisley (Mhairi Black) thanks to Unionist tactical voting not happening or going wrong:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872974787823489024

    I suspect going wrong. Voters assumed the Tories were more likely to win the seat.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @EastAyrshire: Alan Brown SNP reelected to serve Kilmarnock and Loudoun #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/oJn1RANynU
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,258

    I've managed to kill the mood at Matthew Parker Street.

    *please* tell us how.
    The headline of this thread.
    You expect me to read the threader? ;)

    There are two sorts of people: those who read the content and those who just comment.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    May will go down as the worst senior politician in the past two centuries.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Are we really suggesting Corbyn PM? Labour would need 50 gains for that to even be a remote possibility. Not going to happen.

    The SNP and LDs will back him over Tories.

    It's over, Jason.
    What's over? The maths are not there for Labour unless they are the largest party. Is that your prediction, and if so, on what evidence?
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    If Tories had promised the £350M for the NHS they would have won a landslide. It was so fucking easy, it had to be done. Instead we got May grimacing on the One Show, like the most awkward person you've ever met in your life promising a cap on energy bills.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn ran the campaign of the century.

    May didn't.

    Yep. I think never thinking he could win, he just enjoyed it.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    Andrew said:

    Spreads C307 L275 LD13 SNP34.

    How does anyone form a government with that? Especially since LibDems taking a hardline against being part of a coalition.

    Corbyn forms a minority. He'll have to. No Tory could.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FFS, these Welsh translations....
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    He must be laughing his tits off.
    He's not, he's still a Tory. He seemed very glum when I watched him earlier.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    chloe said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.

    Yes, May is gone by Monday. No chance she holds on now.
    By Monday? Generous!
    She'll be gone by the end of the day.
    She needs to go
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    William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    Andrew said:

    Spreads C307 L275 LD13 SNP34.

    How does anyone form a government with that? Especially since LibDems taking a hardline against being part of a coalition.

    Getting to Corbyn banging in a Queens Speech and daring people to vote it down at that point I guess?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,158
    Mortimer said:

    My CCHQ sources says looks like the young voters did turn out, as well their middle class parents, and frightened grannies stayed at home.

    People want to buy cheap houses and keep expensive houses.
    So just the moon on a stick, then?
    Plus free universities, subsidised energy and transport, higher pay, tax cuts and increased spending on public services.

    And they want it all now.

    And woe to any government which doesn't deliver.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,258
    1% swing from Conservative to Labour.

    Hahahahahaha.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    Amber Rudd's tears taste like nectar to me.

    What an unpleasant comment
    We will see the full unpleasantness of the Far Left now in all its glory.
    whereas we saw the full unpleasantness of the Far right last year.

    Remember that?
    Yup.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,606
    Andrew said:

    Spreads C307 L275 LD13 SNP34.

    How does anyone form a government with that? Especially since LibDems taking a hardline against being part of a coalition.

    https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/872975730937823239
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587

    My CCHQ sources says looks like the young voters did turn out, as well their middle class parents, and frightened grannies stayed at home.

    That is what really struck me from that age break down poll showed earlier today, the Tories were losing in the middle age bracket. It is one thing being smashed in the youngster bracket, but at the start of the GE campaign May was a country mile ahead in the other two age brackets.
    I think it was you that pointed that out earlier. If we had listened to you, we could all have won a lot of money.
    The double whammy of not wanting to lose their inheritance on the one hand and prospect of having the kids' tuition fees waived on the other
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    I don't think Mohamed is a native Welsh speaker
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited June 2017

    My CCHQ sources says looks like the young voters did turn out, as well their middle class parents, and frightened grannies stayed at home.

    That is what really struck me from that age break down poll showed earlier today, the Tories were losing in the middle age bracket. It is one thing being smashed in the youngster bracket, but at the start of the GE campaign May was a country mile ahead in the other two age brackets.
    I think it was you that pointed that out earlier. If we had listened to you, we could all have won a lot of money.
    It was...but I also thought Tories must be ok (despite YouGov) because there were no signs of panic / change of focus in the campaign.

    I am sure we will find out why in due course, either Textor / Messina polling was horrendous or May wouldn't listen.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    I wonder if Warwick & Leamington actually might go Labour.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    Andrew said:

    Spreads C307 L275 LD13 SNP34.

    How does anyone form a government with that? Especially since LibDems taking a hardline against being part of a coalition.

    Lab-SNP deal, LDs back up as needed with miscellaneous to get them over the edge as not all Tories will always be there.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    tlg86 said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting. SNP hold onto Paisley (Mhairi Black) thanks to Unionist tactical voting not happening or going wrong:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872974787823489024

    Absolute fucking morons. :angry:
    They'll know next time
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Tories concentrating on Corby and the IRA was idiotic.
    Who under 30 gives a toss about they IRA?
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Tories were expecting 1931. It's more like 1923.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288

    Green member in Bath who has been at the count reckons Lib Dems by 1-2,000

    Kingston is on a knife-edge too.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    AndyJS said:

    Labour pile up 47,351 votes in Knowsley, 85.3% of the vote.

    Is that a record for a seat this century?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,288
    edited June 2017
    Vale of Clwyd
    Labour 19423
    Tories 17044
    Labour gain
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    Are we really suggesting Corbyn PM? Labour would need 50 gains for that to even be a remote possibility. Not going to happen.

    The SNP and LDs will back him over Tories.

    It's over, Jason.
    What's over? The maths are not there for Labour unless they are the largest party. Is that your prediction, and if so, on what evidence?
    Won't be far off
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    FIRST LABOUR GAIN FROM TORIES

    Vale of Clwyd
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2017
    Lab gain Vale of Clwyd by over 2,000 votes

    Chris Ruane who lost his seat in 2015 is returned
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Fixed Term Parl Act in the bin
    we go again in October
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Andrew said:

    Spreads C307 L275 LD13 SNP34.

    How does anyone form a government with that? Especially since LibDems taking a hardline against being part of a coalition.

    https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/872975730937823239
    Bam. However I don't see many seats outside Scotland changing hands in the new elections.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017
    If it's a Labour minority, expect Farage to be UKIP leader again by Christmas.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    Comrades gain Vale of Clwyd!
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Jason said:

    Are we really suggesting Corbyn PM? Labour would need 50 gains for that to even be a remote possibility. Not going to happen.

    Doesn't work like that. It's not "highest score wins".

    Read the [commentary other people have written about the understanding of the unwritten] constitution.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678
    EDW20000 said:

    Tories concentrating on Corby and the IRA was idiotic.
    Who under 30 gives a toss about they IRA?

    Indeed. The Tories gave up the economy way too early and easily.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    SeanT said:

    Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.

    Agreed. On that note, all sensible people can unite.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    Labour is the perpetually irritating Japanese knotweed of British politics that just won't die.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to do exceptionally well. Look at the huge rises in vote share in constituencies where they have no interest.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Greens not excessively squeezed in Putney.
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    easy win for Labour in Vale of Clwyd. Tories absolutely fucked.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,551
    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)
    Its the NHS and public services. The NHS won it for Brexit, it looks like it will win it for Labour this time.

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Tories not voting tactically in Scotland so far.

    Is that a surprise ?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678
    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)
    Yes, it's all down to Theresa trying to steal people's houses.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    MaxPB said:

    EDW20000 said:

    Tories concentrating on Corby and the IRA was idiotic.
    Who under 30 gives a toss about they IRA?

    Indeed. The Tories gave up the economy way too early and easily.
    I made that comment on the podcast
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Putney - Con hold.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FPT:

    It is extraordinary, truly. I feel happy, you must be truly elated.

    +1. Don't know if I posted it in this thread or the other one, but I apologise to all Corbynistas, especially Nick Palmer.

    Corbyn will be PM.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Greenign hangs on
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Justine Greening survives
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    Justine Greening holds on.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    Justine holds on in Putney - just!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Apparently the Tories will lose every marginal constituency Tezza visited
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    PHEW! Putney!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Greening holds on by about ~1,000 votes in Putney, had a majority of 10k beforehand.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    How close in Putney
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Putney is a Tory hold.

    Better news for the Tories.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,408
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.

    I bet you can show me loads of posts in your diarrhetic output that shows that?

    Hang on, you post every possible view nightly.
    Eh? I fully admit I am absurdly bipolar but I've been clear from the start that I wanted Soft Brexit, and abhorred Hard Brexit, and I entirely lost confidence in Theresa May when she announced her Manifesto, as I said on here (and PB-ers will attest)
    Tbf there were a few 'Cry God for Harry, England, and Saint George, & we'll ram our diamond hard Brexit up your garlicky arses' moments.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Danny565 said:

    FFS, these Welsh translations....

    What do you mean? Surely English translations.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Future PM, Justine Greening returned in Putney
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Thought Tories had lost Putney then! Almighty scare for Justine Greening!
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Justine holds on in Putney - just!

    Good news. Of sorts.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,258
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.

    I bet you can show me loads of posts in your diarrhetic output that shows that?

    Hang on, you post every possible view nightly.
    Eh? I fully admit I am absurdly bipolar but I've been clear from the start that I wanted Soft Brexit, and abhorred Hard Brexit, and I entirely lost confidence in Theresa May when she announced her Manifesto, as I said on here (and PB-ers will attest)
    The problem is you track record is of supporting every possible outcome simultaneously. You are a Schrodinger's Car poster.

    If you want your political comments to be taken seriously you should take this to heart.

    In fact, the same applies to your so-called sad sex-life, you lonely, hopeless soul.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,552
    Greening by the skin of her teeth.
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Putney hold just
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    crossover back to May
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Sooooo pleased for Justine
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    We should get an exit poll update soon, surely?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    The Green candidate in Putney is very impressive, dumb and blind. Glad he retained his deposit.
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to do exceptionally well. Look at the huge rises in vote share in constituencies where they have no interest.

    Yes. They might keep the Tories as largest party.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,087
    Putney Cons saved by strong LDs.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    But LAB very close in Putney...
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Chameleon said:

    Greening holds on by about ~1,000 votes in Putney, had a majority of 10k beforehand.

    Hmm, seems the Labour spinners were getting a bit over-excited earlier.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    SCon will cream Scotland I think. Clegg and Farron out IMO.
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    AR404AR404 Posts: 21
    Essexit said:

    I'm not prepared. How did Theresa stuff this up so badly? She could have just made and promoted some positive policies, turned up to some more debates, not run an absurd presidential-style campaign, not banged on about foxhunting and social care. The opportunity was there to smash the Labour Party for a generation and she squandered it.

    It's almost like she wanted to lose, couldn't have done anything more to get to this position.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,288
    edited June 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)
    Its the NHS and public services. The NHS won it for Brexit, it looks like it will win it for Labour this time.

    Yes, this was a vote against further cuts for public services primarily, people felt Brexit was done and dusted, May would win and immigration could fall so they could vote against yet more austerity and shift from UKIP to Labour, not simply the Tories as most of us thought (including I admit myself). Now with the nature of Brexit up in the air again and perhaps no new immigration controls at all UKIP is back on again as a political force and Farage must surely return to the leadership if it is soft Brexit
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    UKIP standing down in seats is returning LAB more often than not. Pope Nuttall KCG DFC and bar must be delighted.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    Dover - Con hold - zero swing
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,551
    So pleased for Justine.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Well done Greening. At least now you can tell May to get lost with her grammar school nonsense
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130

    Putney is a Tory hold.

    Better news for the Tories.

    Barely - should never have been in play.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Clwyd South

    Lab +13.5
    Con +8.7
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to do exceptionally well. Look at the huge rises in vote share in constituencies where they have no interest.

    Tory Maj might be possible because of Scotland.

    Extraordinary.

    My flabber is entirely gasted...
This discussion has been closed.