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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister,

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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    Putney is a Tory hold.

    Better news for the Tories.

    Barely, that was close! Tories on course for near wipeout in London
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Things going back to May a little.
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    kle4 said:

    Putney is a Tory hold.

    Better news for the Tories.

    Barely - should never have been in play.
    she had 10000 majority last time
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    MaxPB said:

    EDW20000 said:

    Tories concentrating on Corby and the IRA was idiotic.
    Who under 30 gives a toss about they IRA?

    Indeed. The Tories gave up the economy way too early and easily.
    It's astonishing they didn't even mention the low unemployment figures. To lose sats when so strongly ahead on the economy.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 470
    So the exit poll was wrong for North East Wales - Labour hold Clwyd South and Wrexham, gain Vale of Clwyd. That's a swing of 3 seats from the exit poll predictions.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    Apparently the Tories will lose every marginal constituency Tezza visited

    She has the negative midas touch
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    The Tories never attacking Labour on the magic money forest was bizarre.

    What I never understand was why they didn't just make good on the £350 a million extra a week for the NHS (or a figure close to that).

    If they said by 2025 or so i.e. when Brexit concluded, with inflation it wouldn't even be a particularly big jump.

    Would have been an easy policy to spin. Could have had Boris and co doing their dance again.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to do exceptionally well. Look at the huge rises in vote share in constituencies where they have no interest.

    Might save me some money then.

    Otherwise I'm sitting on big losses for the night.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    My Lib Dem friend in Sheffield Hallam says Clegg's a gonner.

    Odd UKIP to Lab swing!
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    EDW20000 said:

    Tories concentrating on Corby and the IRA was idiotic.
    Who under 30 gives a toss about they IRA?

    But yesterday and the day before, the Tories were cock-a-hoop.

    @Carlotta, how many views for that dreaded video ? 5m , 10m ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Mortimer said:

    I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to do exceptionally well. Look at the huge rises in vote share in constituencies where they have no interest.

    Tory Maj might be possible because of Scotland.

    Extraordinary.

    My flabber is entirely gasted...
    Double digit number of SCON seats? Please!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678
    I think we are on for 305-310, which is frankly, shocking. Fuck Theresa May. Fucking useless, the party needs to dump her tomorrow morning.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    EDW20000 said:

    Things going back to May a little.

    How?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Danny565 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Greening holds on by about ~1,000 votes in Putney, had a majority of 10k beforehand.

    Hmm, seems the Labour spinners were getting a bit over-excited earlier.
    She's lost 9,000 of her 10,000 majority - they were allowed to get excited!

    Carnage for the Tories.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    DM_Andy said:

    So the exit poll was wrong for North East Wales - Labour hold Clwyd South and Wrexham, gain Vale of Clwyd. That's a swing of 3 seats from the exit poll predictions.

    They'd best bloody hold Ynys Mons now.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    Look, world, clearly I was wrong on Brexit and Corbyn has rocked me to my core - can the goddamn UK Union at least be safe now until I die?
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to do exceptionally well. Look at the huge rises in vote share in constituencies where they have no interest.

    Tory Maj might be possible because of Scotland.

    Extraordinary.

    My flabber is entirely gasted...
    No majority.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    I'm expecting SNP to get creamed. And hoping.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    Scott_P said:

    Apparently the Tories will lose every marginal constituency Tezza visited

    She has the negative midas touch

    She did not visit them. She went to closed off factories and warehouses.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    edited June 2017
    So, it looks like the LDs lose W&L, Hallam, Richmond Park.
    Gain Twickenham, Vauxhall, Bath, Edinburgh West.
    Knife-edge in Kingston, Ceredgion.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,408
    Jezza now fav for pm?!
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Putney became a marginal....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    kle4 said:

    Look, world, clearly I was wrong on Brexit and Corbyn has rocked me to my core - can the goddamn UK Union at least be safe now until I die?

    No government to authorise a Scottish referendum = union safe. :D
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    What did May offer Council House Tories?
    Sweet FA
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Labour is the perpetually irritating Japanese knotweed of British politics that just won't die.

    They wibble.

    They wobble.

    But they never fall down.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    Justine Greening HOLDS Putney for the Tories with a 1554 majority
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    10% seat swing in putney
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    I think the Scottish Conservatives are going to do exceptionally well. Look at the huge rises in vote share in constituencies where they have no interest.

    Tory Maj might be possible because of Scotland.

    Extraordinary.

    My flabber is entirely gasted...
    No majority.
    Come back posh boys, all is forgiven.......
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748

    Jezza now fav for pm?!

    Yup, does no-one read the thread headers?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    No London wipeout after all
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    MaxPB said:

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    He must be laughing his tits off.
    He's not, he's still a Tory. He seemed very glum when I watched him earlier.
    Praps he has seen the less funny side of trolling his own party in his Russian friend's giveaway newspaper.

    I think he is the single individual most responsible for where we are now. He's jointly responsible with Cameron, but he is by a country mile the cleverer of the two. He should have got on Cameron's case and sent him back to Europe to get a reform package on which to win brexit.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    kle4 said:

    Look, world, clearly I was wrong on Brexit and Corbyn has rocked me to my core - can the goddamn UK Union at least be safe now until I die?

    It is looking slightly like that. However knowing your record, in the next GE we'll see SNP getting 59 seats.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    rcs1000 said:

    So, it looks like the LDs lose W&L, Hallam, Richmond Park.
    Gain Twickenham, Vauxhall, Bath, Edinburgh West.
    Knife-edge in Kingston.

    I'm hoping the maginot line in the SW is Bath...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Really incredible, Corbyn is popular beyond my wildest expectations. 20 years ago I would have been doing cartwheels at this!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/872977138370129921

    Exactly. Labourites are spineless cowards who don't give a shit who, or how, wins so long as they have a bright red rosette.
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    Labour two more likely gains in Wales: Gower & Cardiff North.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Danny565 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Greening holds on by about ~1,000 votes in Putney, had a majority of 10k beforehand.

    Hmm, seems the Labour spinners were getting a bit over-excited earlier.

    LD vote went up. That was the problem.

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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    The Tories never attacking Labour on the magic money forest was bizarre.

    What I never understand was why they didn't just make good on the £350 a million extra a week for the NHS (or a figure close to that).

    If they said by 2025 or so i.e. when Brexit concluded, with inflation it wouldn't even be a particularly big jump.

    Would have been an easy policy to spin. Could have had Boris and co doing their dance again.

    I honestly think I might have been the first on here to suggest promising that £350M by letting inflation do the job, right after the referendum. It looked like a no-brainer to me.

    Instead we get the stupid Social Care policy out of the blue.
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    MaxPB said:

    I think we are on for 305-310, which is frankly, shocking. Fuck Theresa May. Fucking useless, the party needs to dump her tomorrow morning.

    Gone before cornflakes
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)
    Yes, it's all down to Theresa trying to steal people's houses.
    Yep. May actually got herself into a position where she was promising to keep the WFA for Scotland and letting her own voters in England have it snatched off them!

    The anger this provoked in the Shires was unbelievable.

    And then there's the Dementia tax...
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Come on guys. We are a very long way indeed from Corbyn PM. The maths just aren't there for Labour.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    So, who's the next Tory leader? Boris? Wonder what would have happened if Gove hadn't knifed him?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    YouGov London didn't pick this up.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,258

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/872977138370129921

    Exactly. Labourites are spineless cowards who don't give a shit who, or how, wins so long as they have a bright red rosette.

    +1

    Same with the Brexiters, of course. ;)
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    DougieDougie Posts: 57
    I wonder if Alastair Meeks had it right a few weeks ago. Tory manifesto should have been Brexit plus £350 million per week for the NHS, and not much else.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    MaxPB said:

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    He must be laughing his tits off.
    He's not, he's still a Tory. He seemed very glum when I watched him earlier.
    He is heartbroken that in his view the Conservatives abandoned the center by trying to court leavers and kippers. It has completely undone the work Cameron and Osborne did to make the Tories credible again.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,408

    Jezza now fav for pm?!

    Yup, does no-one read the thread headers?
    Oops, soz!
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Tories without Bullingdon Club = ruin
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    Tory Cllr told me the other day The national Tories had no idea what the fuck they were doing.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Warwickshire N!!!!!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Substantial swing to the Tories in Warwickshire North.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Tim Farron does not sound confident...
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,322
    After 45 seats:

    Lab +8.0
    Con +6.8

    Not as bad for Con as it feels.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Jason said:

    Come on guys. We are a very long way indeed from Corbyn PM. The maths just aren't there for Labour.

    We're heading for a new election.
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    That is a decent swing to the Tories in North Warwickshire?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Decent result in North Warwickshire.
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    Con hold Hertsmere
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    kle4 said:

    Look, world, clearly I was wrong on Brexit and Corbyn has rocked me to my core - can the goddamn UK Union at least be safe now until I die?

    Given the big swing against the SNP quite possibly
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    I think we are on for 305-310, which is frankly, shocking. Fuck Theresa May. Fucking useless, the party needs to dump her tomorrow morning.

    Yep.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Tim Farron does not sound confident...

    Is it the wider results, or is he himself in trouble?
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Labour not doing well in West midlands
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678

    My Lib Dem friend in Sheffield Hallam says Clegg's a gonner.

    Odd UKIP to Lab swing!

    Our campaign completely failed to drag Labour into the same Hard Brexit box as us. Labour became an easy choice for remain voters and even soft Brexit UKIP/Tory Leavers voters.

    The campaign was just horrible.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748

    Jezza now fav for pm?!

    Yup, does no-one read the thread headers?
    Oops, soz!
    It's ok, it is a hectic night.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Angus time!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Well we can now all agree that the dreadful Theresa May is gone. And, with her, hopefully, Hard Brexit.

    I bet you can show me loads of posts in your diarrhetic output that shows that?

    Hang on, you post every possible view nightly.
    Eh? I fully admit I am absurdly bipolar but I've been clear from the start that I wanted Soft Brexit, and abhorred Hard Brexit, and I entirely lost confidence in Theresa May when she announced her Manifesto, as I said on here (and PB-ers will attest)
    The problem is you track record is of supporting every possible outcome simultaneously. You are a Schrodinger's Car poster.

    If you want your political comments to be taken seriously you should take this to heart.

    In fact, the same applies to your so-called sad sex-life, you lonely, hopeless soul.
    Easy, don't get personal mate.

    No need.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,342
    ANd so another thread for the PB Annals of posters not believing the Exit Poll
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    HYUFD said:

    No London wipeout after all

    Is London the new Scotland for the tories?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    Ave_it said:

    Warwickshire N!!!!!

    Held or gone ?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Chameleon said:

    Tim Farron does not sound confident...

    Is it the wider results, or is he himself in trouble?
    BBC saying he is in trouble - who to, the Cons?
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/872977138370129921

    Exactly. Labourites are spineless cowards who don't give a shit who, or how, wins so long as they have a bright red rosette.

    Tory manifesto didn't really resemble the 2015 one yet people were happy enough to vote for them even while disparaging it.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    edited June 2017
    KLAXON

    Con gain Angus
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Angus:

    Con 18,148
    SNP 15,503

    Tory gain.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316
    LucyJones said:

    So, who's the next Tory leader? Boris? Wonder what would have happened if Gove hadn't knifed him?

    I wonder if Leadsom could get her revenge for being sidelined by May after handing her the leadership on a plate.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    JonathanD said:

    Well done Greening. At least now you can tell May to get lost with her grammar school nonsense

    A plurality of voters backed some new grammars in polls, this was a vote against austerity and against hard Brexit in Remain areas, this was not a vote against having a few more grammars
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,606
    MaxPB said:

    I think we are on for 305-310, which is frankly, shocking. Fuck Theresa May. Fucking useless, the party needs to dump her tomorrow morning.

    Gordon Brown's decision not to run for the polls and have snap election for "a personal mandate" looks like the greatest tactical decision of political history after this.
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    dmc82dmc82 Posts: 27
    Con gain Angus
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    CON GAIN ANGUS. MOTHERFUCKING YES
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    ANd so another thread for the PB Annals of posters not believing the Exit Poll

    I warned them.
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    TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tory gain snp. Massive swing.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    ANGUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Chameleon said:

    CON GAIN ANGUS. MOTHERFUCKING YES

    KLAXON.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Angus - taken from SNP by Con.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,552
    ANGUS!!! Ruth rules.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    Tories gain ANGUS!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    BOOM! Angus, 16-1
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    What on earth are sane Labour supporters going to do if Corbyn does become PM?

    What on earth are sane Labour supporters going to do if Corbyn does become PM?

    Rejoice!
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    JonathanD said:

    Well done Greening. At least now you can tell May to get lost with her grammar school nonsense

    I like Justine and didn't want her to lose her seat.

    Congratulations to her for hanging on.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,955
    Interesting. They're suggesting that the young having been screwed over Brexit are now rebeling.

    Huge vote against Justine Greening. Grammar schools I suspect.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Not going to be a good night for SNP either
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678
    MikeL said:

    After 45 seats:

    Lab +8.0
    Con +6.8

    Not as bad for Con as it feels.

    Piling up votes in useless seats in the North and losing votes in southern marginals. Useless.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,258
    MaxPB said:

    My Lib Dem friend in Sheffield Hallam says Clegg's a gonner.

    Odd UKIP to Lab swing!

    Our campaign completely failed to drag Labour into the same Hard Brexit box as us. Labour became an easy choice for remain voters and even soft Brexit UKIP/Tory Leavers voters.

    The campaign was just horrible.
    This is all the fault of Brexiters. It was totally avoidable.

    Still, at least you're away from it all, eh?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    Jason said:

    Come on guys. We are a very long way indeed from Corbyn PM. The maths just aren't there for Labour.

    You said it wouldn't get to this point in the first place (as did I), soI think I'll go with what I see of the trend- Wales is underperforming for Con on the exit poll, safe seats are being turned into marginals in England, and while they'll hold some, they're losing a whole bunch more, and too many for SCON to make up for. Lab have allies in the SNP and LDs (or at least willing to deal), Con have no one to deal with but SUP.

    Thus, Corbyn PM - May won't be able to pass a budget.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Chameleon said:

    Tim Farron does not sound confident...

    Is it the wider results, or is he himself in trouble?
    BBC saying he is in trouble - who to, the Cons?
    Hopefilly.
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    EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    First rule of vote club, believe the exit poll
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    George Osborne - Ipswich Milton Keynes reading northampton looking very bad. Globalised connected towns

    That's all because of this dementia tax, WFA stuff, not Brexit (Northampton strongly voted for Brexit for example)
    Yes, it's all down to Theresa trying to steal people's houses.
    Yep. May actually got herself into a position where she was promising to keep the WFA for Scotland and letting her own voters in England have it snatched off them!

    The anger this provoked in the Shires was unbelievable.

    And then there's the Dementia tax...
    A heads up on that this time yesterday would have been valuable...

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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,551
    Ruth is a saint
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978
    Angus - thank god. Ruth for PM. Seriously
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    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312
    https://twitter.com/BeckyMurphyEDP/status/872976366337183744

    tories up, majority down in south norfolk
This discussion has been closed.