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Beer on keyboard - bastard!!GeoffM said:
There will be a lot of young boys and a few goats looking very worried right now.MarqueeMark said:Has to be said, if Amber Rudd loses her seat, not a great time to lose a Home Secretary with two major ISIS outrages having just happened.
Non-alcoholic champagne corks popping in Raqqa....0 -
Wouldn't be surprised if we end up with Con + 7% ..... and polls were average 7.5% after all.0
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Safe Tory seat, wait to see sharesChameleon said:Swindon North declared for Con according to ITV.
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At the moment I'd predict the biggest Tory majority for 30 years!Sean_F said:
It would seem strange to dump someone, if she's won an election (obviously different if she loses her majority).TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, she's fatally damaged.Sean_F said:If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.
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Going to bed. Should I set my alarm for 4:30?0
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Unlikely.Alistair said:
Exit poll say LDsDavidL said:
Ruthaugustus_carp said:If Salmond is going to lose Gordon, who does he lose it to? (Genuine question.)
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The estimate given at 8pm in France is not an exit-poll, it includes actual resultsDM_Andy said:Why don't we do exit polls the way that the French do?
But the system is totally different: all polling stations close at 7 pm and counting is much faster as it is done in each polling station (in most small places counting is done in less than an hour).
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Possibly, but the Exit Poll only seemed to pick up one side of it.Freggles said:
BUT if Hastings going red that who knows what is happening.Scrapheap_as_was said:Huge!!!!!!! Kelner says exit poll may be missing postal swing to tories...
I think we will get very weird results in different areas because of the Brexit effect.0 -
You can see they are getting more and more nervous about this exit poll. I strongly suspect its because of their assumptions about the postals swinging the same as on the day voters. Tories will end up with 330. Which is pretty pathetic really.Casino_Royale said:Sunderland Central better, but still NE.
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Swindon South is the more relevant oneTheWhiteRabbit said:
Safe Tory seat, wait to see sharesChameleon said:Swindon North declared for Con according to ITV.
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You could argue the North East results show the Tories are increasing their vote in all the wrong places.0
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Conservative manifestoScrapheap_as_was said:Huge!!!!!!! Kelner says exit poll may be missing postal swing to tories...
We will legislate to ensure that a form of identifcation must be presented before voting, to reform postal voting...
Perhaps they meant to reform it to be mandatory for 65+, and to be handed in the first week, before the campaign goes bad ?0 -
Anyone got a list of Tory targets, please?0
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Pestone repeating this caveat on itv nowScrapheap_as_was said:Huge!!!!!!! Kelner says exit poll may be missing postal swing to tories...
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Cross party consensus on that one!SandyRentool said:Priti being interviewed by Mishal. It doesn't get much better than that.
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Why would Curtice make a mistake like that?Scrapheap_as_was said:Huge!!!!!!! Kelner says exit poll may be missing postal swing to tories...
He knows this. This would have been a factor in GE2015 too.0 -
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battlegroundProdicus said:Anyone got a list of Tory targets, please?
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Casino_Royale said:
I don't think so.Sean_F said:If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.
Agreed. She made a gambit and lost. She's gone if they fall short of a big majority.0 -
all about the swing. 0.1% swing across every seat means bigger majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Safe Tory seat, wait to see sharesChameleon said:Swindon North declared for Con according to ITV.
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It seems they are getting more of the UKIP vote than Labour, I thinkTheScreamingEagles said:You could argue the North East results show the Tories are increasing their vote in all the wrong places.
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http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative for exampleProdicus said:Anyone got a list of Tory targets, please?
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I think it is early days (much as I want the Exit poll to be very wrong). We will see weird swings and local factors all over the country.Floater said:
Southam, I have never wanted you to be right more than now.SouthamObserver said:This exit poll is not just wrong, it is massively wrong.
Still hoping that my May Majority and SCON >9.5 bets will come in.
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Ah right, them votes by post.... if thats old people being prompt and efficient then this country is going to the dogs....0
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She was never going to run in 2021/22 anyway, IMO.JosiasJessop said:
Yep. MPs will be looking at this campaign, and be wondering how she'll f'up the next one.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, she's fatally damaged.Sean_F said:If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.
She's a goner, either immediately, or before the next GE.0 -
So May safe as houses. That exit poll looked wrong right from the start. It was very funny though.
One of my predictions earlier today was that Labour would get less seats than the exit poll forecast. I got that right at least!0 -
Unless the exit poll is WAY outTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, she's fatally damaged.Sean_F said:If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.
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The electoral office were doing their jobs.Y0kel said:
So the polling stations in Garrison closed properly at 10 then....Lucian_Fletcher said:
I'm being told positive things about various boxes and how full they are.Y0kel said:
Who is that gonna suit though? The pollsters reckon its really the only unionist/nationalist seat in play.Lucian_Fletcher said:For those interested I'm hearing positive things about turnout in FST. Trying not to read too much into it.
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Spot on. I remember Curtice saying so...tlg86 said:
Can anyone remember how the exit poll did in these seats last time?Paristonda said:a third seat showing a swing to con of 2.3%. exit poll looking shaky so far, but not massively out of line - 2015 mk.2 on the cards...
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Swindon N critical! If any swing to CON then we have won!0
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John McDonnell started talking about a Labour Govt and there was a clap of thunder over my house which made the lights flicker0
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Kirsty Walk says Salmond and Robertson both now may lose their seats to the Tories, Davidson having a great night in Scotland if true0
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Repost
On the accuracy of the exit poll and the swing to and from the Conservatives in individual seats.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives. Sunderland Central had 20% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
The exit poll looks good so far. May change later of course.0 -
So if UKIP are keeping only a quarter of their vote with one quarter going to Labour and half to Tories and the rest is mimimal churn, then Tories get 43% and Labour 33% which should be a decent Tory majority as long as they aren't too inefficient (can imagine a lot of 60%+ Tory share rural seats).0
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Kellner's 360 Tory prediction, not quite a landslide but very, very comfortable.0
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Well yeah, but Labour still taking a sizeable chunk of it.isam said:
It seems they are getting more of the UKIP vote than Labour, I thinkTheScreamingEagles said:You could argue the North East results show the Tories are increasing their vote in all the wrong places.
Lots of the expected Tory gains were based on them taking ALMOST ALL of the UKIP vote.0 -
My guess (right now) is that the Tories do about 15 votes better than the exits.
But.
Are the exits picking up anti-Tory tactical voting? Are the Tories piling up votes where they don't need them.0 -
Labour Cllr from Bradford tells BBC Labour have held Bradford South, East, West and "could take Keighley"0
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Here are the exit poll toss upsrcs1000 said:
Unlikely.Alistair said:
Exit poll say LDsDavidL said:
Ruthaugustus_carp said:If Salmond is going to lose Gordon, who does he lose it to? (Genuine question.)
Aberdeen South, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 11% chance of victory, the SNP has a 26% chance of victory
Airdrie & Shotts, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 77% chance of victory
Argyll & Bute, the Conservatives have a 4% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 36% chance of victory, the SNP has a 60% chance of victory
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, the Conservatives have a 35% chance of victory, Labour has a 1% chance of victory, the SNP has a 64% chance of victory
Banff & Buchan, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
East Lothian, the Conservatives have a 24% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
Edinburgh East, Labour has a 49% chance of victory, the SNP has a 51% chance of victory
Edinburgh South West, the Conservatives have a 37% chance of victory, Labour has a 27% chance of victory, the SNP has a 36% chance of victory
Fife North East, the Conservatives have a 7% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 73% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
Glasgow Central, Labour has a 59% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory
Gordon, the Liberal Democrats have a 51% chance of victory, the SNP has a 49% chance of victory
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, the Liberal Democrats have a 48% chance of victory, the SNP has a 52% chance of victory
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Labour has a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
Lanark & Hamilton East, the Conservatives have a 5% chance of victory, Labour has a 16% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
Ochil & Perthshire South, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Labour has a 21% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Labour has a 54% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
Renfrewshire East, the Conservatives have a 32% chance of victory, Labour has a 58% chance of victory, the SNP has a 10% chance of victory
Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Labour has a 41% chance of victory, the SNP has a 59% chance of victory
Stirling, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 3% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory0 -
Yes, it does look like it.TheScreamingEagles said:You could argue the North East results show the Tories are increasing their vote in all the wrong places.
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More of my dodgy predictions:
Washington & Sunderland West : CON 11660 LAB 23160
Kettering : CON 28990 LAB 15000
Swindon North : CON 31200 LAB 180000 -
It's a bit early for that. Are you hoping that Corbyn doesn't get vindicated with a good result?SouthamObserver said:So May safe as houses. That exit poll looked wrong right from the start. It was very funny though.
One of my predictions earlier today was that Labour would get less seats than the exit poll forecast. I got that right at least!0 -
That's Kellner's excuse. It is an important point, surely, that a lot of postal votes were cast before Labour reached the heights of its surge. The exit poll takes 2015 postal vote performance into account, but there wasn't such a surge then.Carolus_Rex said:What the fuck is going on? Postal votes?
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If we were just looking at the results and didn't have an exit poll we'd probably be expecting a slightly increased Tory majority.0
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He's talking nonsense.Mexicanpete said:Kellner's 360 Tory prediction, not quite a landslide but very, very comfortable.
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OK grabbing sleep now.
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Still going to assume this is accurate until we get a lot more results in different parts of the country.0
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Sunderland was expected to swing a bit Tory according to YouGov (via TSE)SouthamObserver said:So May safe as houses. That exit poll looked wrong right from the start. It was very funny though.
One of my predictions earlier today was that Labour would get less seats than the exit poll forecast. I got that right at least!0 -
Kellner says Clegg may have lost Sheffield Hallam according to local LDs0
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Wonder what's happened to Andrew Neil?0
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Not Clegg!0
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New , improved WhisperingOracle prognosis - Tory majority of 15-20. May to be gone by Christmas.0
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I'm wondering if the pattern is as follows:
UKIP - big swing to Con
Turnout up benefitting Lab.
This means that Con could still gain places like Wakefield but lose seats like Hendon where UKIP was weak.0 -
LDS doing very well in scotland0
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Interesting, thank you.midwinter said:
Spot on. I remember Curtice saying so...tlg86 said:
Can anyone remember how the exit poll did in these seats last time?Paristonda said:a third seat showing a swing to con of 2.3%. exit poll looking shaky so far, but not massively out of line - 2015 mk.2 on the cards...
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Many thanks.tlg86 said:
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battlegroundProdicus said:Anyone got a list of Tory targets, please?
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Exit poll may be overestimating Labour’s performance in election, first two results suggest
Voters don't appear to have switched to Labour as much as pollsters had predicted
http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/exit-poll-labour-election-results-latest-conservatives-votes-swing-brexit-a7780291.html?F0 -
Areas where they weren't pushing resources??TheScreamingEagles said:You could argue the North East results show the Tories are increasing their vote in all the wrong places.
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Yes, interesting. Sunderland is just the sort of place the Tories could stack up Brexity votes without taking the seat.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Nick Brown
Newcastle East0 -
To be fair you got your bed wetting in at a fairly early stage of this election.SeanT said:Ruth Davidson for PM
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Newcastle East:
Lab +9k
Con +2k
LD -1.5k0 -
Newcastle East
Lab 28,127
Grn 755
Cons 8866
UKIP 1350
LDs 2574
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Big swing to Lab in NoT East
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Nooooo!HYUFD said:Kellner says Clegg may have lost Sheffield Hallam according to local LDs
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Sheffield Hallam students have left. At least my daughter and all her friends are home againHYUFD said:Kellner says Clegg may have lost Sheffield Hallam according to local LDs
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Great line from Kellner - You're assuming some sort of correlation between personal performance in the campaign and the actual result - re Clegg0
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Labour squeezing Lib Dems and Greens.0
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SWINDON!!!!0
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Huge swing to Lab in Newcastle East.0
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Newcastle East better than the exit poll for Tories but slight swing to Lab0
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Swindon North is the big test.0
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Another decent tory result...?0
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Toon East - BOOM!0
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yay - Conservatives score a goal in Swindon0
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Con up 3,000, Lab up 6,500. The exit poll may not be that wrong.0
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Swindon North result bad for the Tories.0
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I agree, Labour (and LD) will do better in less kippery seats.FF43 said:Repost
On the accuracy of the exit poll and the swing to and from the Conservatives in individual seats.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives. Sunderland Central had 20% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
The exit poll looks good so far. May change later of course.
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More or less than the exit poll suggested?ThreeQuidder said:Huge swing to Lab in Newcastle East.
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Swindon North: Tory maj down 3k.0
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Looking good on turnout bets0
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Swindon
Lab 21096
UKIP 1564
Cons 29431
Tory hold0 -
Swindon N
Lab +10.7
Con +3.30 -
Massive swing in Remain areas. JCICIPM? (again!)0
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Swindon. Grouse.0
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Those 2 results, in particular Swindon North should worry the Tories0
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Thats a big increase for Labour in Swindon.0
