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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/872946809735434242
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    LadyBucket said:

    Nothing can change the fact that we voted Leave in the referendum and if this is overturned in any way, then god help this country. Nigel Farage will be aeck leading UKIP, he has said as much.

    Fear not, Lab backed Brexit, and Corbyn is more a Leaver than May ever was.

    But it will be a workers Brexit rather than a bosses Brexit.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tories are outperforming my model by 2.5% so far....

    In two unimportant seats. Let's see what the marginals come out as.
    Quite. All in here where the swings are.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Casino_Royale said:

    Journalists pointing out quite rightly that she had very similar texts from LD command back in GE2015 at this time of the night, and we know how accurate that exit poll turned out to be.

    Yes but early results then showed LD vote well down, early results tonight do not show Tory vote well down but up, just Labour vote also up
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Mortimer said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tories are outperforming my model by 2.5% so far....

    You were predicting a Tory majority of 80+ as I recall...
    104.
    Well we are both wrong (I was 98). Have a glass on me sir. I'm just about to rack up a bourbon.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Swindon north coming. This is a massive signpost.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    ExpatMalaysia said:

    Shy Cornistas? Yougov Model Vindicated?

    Corbynistas are not shy!
  • Garza
    Garza Posts: 45
    nunu said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    For those interested I'm hearing positive things about turnout in FST. Trying not to read too much into it.

    Can DUP win, May might need them. (sorry I don't know anything about N.Ireland politics).
    The DUP are not running in FST, instead they are backing their unionist rival - the UUP so that they will beat Sinn Fein. Its the only way a unionist politician can win that seat now.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GrantTucker: Astonishing. A text from a Welsh Conservative source: "We've lost Gower."
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    williamglenn said:

    SeanT said:

    Amber Rudd losing in Hastings?

    Boris or Hammond it is.

    I'd feel sorry for her. Theresa May's human shield and she paid with her political career.
    Shades of Chris Patten ?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited June 2017
    Freggles said:

    Memory lane time.

    image

    image

    :lol::trollface::lol::trollface::lol::trollface::lol::trollface::lol::trollface::lol::trollface:

    Haha indeed. I said I hoped that first one would lose the Tories some votes.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Has to be said, if Amber Rudd loses her seat, not a great time to lose a Home Secretary with two major ISIS outrages having just happened.

    Non-alcoholic champagne corks popping in Raqqa....
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Hmmmm :p
  • Lucian_Fletcher
    Lucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    Y0kel said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    For those interested I'm hearing positive things about turnout in FST. Trying not to read too much into it.

    Who is that gonna suit though? The pollsters reckon its really the only unionist/nationalist seat in play.
    I'm being told positive things about various boxes and how full they are.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Scott_P said:

    @GrantTucker: Astonishing. A text from a Welsh Conservative source: "We've lost Gower."

    First big loss. Hoping Ynys Mons can pay for it.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    I don't think so.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Priti Patel and Mishal Husain? I'll be shallow for a moment.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sunderland Central:

    Lab +4k
    Con +5k

    Swing to Tories.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Sunderland Central
    Lab 25056
    Green 705
    LD 1777
    UKIP 2209
    Conservative 15059

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Nah, she's fatally damaged.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Welsh Tory source reckons they've lost Gower and Vale of Clwyd.
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Y0kel said:

    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    For those interested I'm hearing positive things about turnout in FST. Trying not to read too much into it.

    Who is that gonna suit though? The pollsters reckon its really the only unionist/nationalist seat in play.
    I'm being told positive things about various boxes and how full they are.
    So the polling stations in Garrison closed properly at 10 then....
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Swing to Tories on Central too?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Greens down too.
  • dazza
    dazza Posts: 28
    MarqueeMark said:

    dazza said:

    My SwingModel had this prediction for Houghton & Sunderland South. CON 12333 LAB 24038. Actual result: CON: 12324, LAB: 24665.

    The SwingModel just assumed there would be a migration from UKIP to CON, and, a youth surge for LAB. So I am encouraged by this result. Overall result of the Swing Model: CON 342, LAB 226. Add +-10. Either way, suggests CON still on course for a majority from 14 to 52. SwingModel National percentage vote prediction: LAB 36%, CON 43%.

    Hold on in there Mrs May!

    Fascinating stuff!
    My prediction for Sunderland Central: CON 14783 LAB 23905 . Actual: CON: 15000, LAB: 25056. Okay, out by 1000 there.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Small swing to Con in Sunderland Central

    I think Con +5,000 Lab +4,000
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    another stonking Tory result in Sunderland
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab +5%
    Con +10%
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited June 2017
    That Sundrland Central is better for Con than Lab I think

    What I am doing is calling
    (Con increase/UKIP loss) A
    (Lab Increase/UKIP loss) B

    Then A/B

    Worthwhile?

    1 is par, over is good for Con under is good for Lab

    So far
    Houghton 1.51
    Newcastle 0.53
    Sunderland Central 1.29
  • kyf_100
    kyf_100 Posts: 4,957
    Lib Dems on 1,777 in Sunderland Central?

    How does that stack up with 15 seats nationally?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    Sunderland Central
    Lab up 5
    Tories up 10
    2.3% swing from Labour to Tories
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Another one, in the words of DJ Khaled. This exit poll....
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Swing 1.4% after 3 seats

    Con +9.1
    Lab +6.3
    LD +0.1
    UKIP -13.8
  • llef
    llef Posts: 301
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GrantTucker: Astonishing. A text from a Welsh Conservative source: "We've lost Gower."

    First big loss. Hoping Ynys Mons can pay for it.
    alienating english retirees to the gower by axing their winter fuel allowance was probably unwise..
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    game on
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Another swing to the tories
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Nah, she's fatally damaged.
    Yep. MPs will be looking at this campaign, and be wondering how she'll f'up the next one.

    She's a goner, either immediately, or before the next GE.
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    kle4 said:

    Priti Patel and Mishal Husain? I'll be shallow for a moment.

    What a glorious thought.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    The poll is looking bad, but lets wait for Swindon North. If swindon north has an increased majority, pile on Con 50-74.
  • JennyFreeman
    JennyFreeman Posts: 488
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Nah, she's fatally damaged.
    Let's see
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Sunderland central would have netted me a nice £75 if the Tories had unexpectedly pinched it. :(

    LDs really getting squeezed, is that right?
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    a third seat showing a swing to con of 2.3%. exit poll looking shaky so far, but not massively out of line - 2015 mk.2 on the cards...
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Sunderland Central better, but still NE.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Another one, in the words of DJ Khaled. This exit poll....

    However, the exit poll seems to have overestimated the Tories heavily in Wales.

    Had them holding Gower and Vale of Clwyd comfortably, but they've gone apparently
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MarqueeMark said:

    Has to be said, if Amber Rudd loses her seat, not a great time to lose a Home Secretary with two major ISIS outrages having just happened.

    Non-alcoholic champagne corks popping in Raqqa....

    There will be a lot of young boys and a few goats looking very worried right now.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    This exit poll is not just wrong, it is massively wrong.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    edited June 2017
    Sunderland central has been updated on my spreadsheet good for Conservatives.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=0
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    kle4 said:

    Sunderland central would have netted me a nice £75 if the Tories had unexpectedly pinched it. :(

    LDs really getting squeezed, is that right?

    Their vote went up.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Exit poll is rubbish ☺
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    Wait for marginals. Let us not forget that some places swung to Labour last time, but that wasn't what happened in the key areas.
  • chrisb
    chrisb Posts: 121
    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    Not even close
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Labour: huge swing to Cons in postal votes outside London -BBC
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Paristonda said:

    a third seat showing a swing to con of 2.3%. exit poll looking shaky so far, but not massively out of line - 2015 mk.2 on the cards...

    Can anyone remember how the exit poll did in these seats last time?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    Kellner now saying Labour informing him a big swing to Tories amongst postal voters outside London which exit polls would have missed
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    Possibly. It's getting harder and harder to get a representative sample of voters these days.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    Nah, the 1987 exit poll predicted a hung parliament, Mrs Thatcher in reality won a majority of 100
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Why are first 3 decs all from top right corner of the country?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    kle4 said:

    Sunderland central would have netted me a nice £75 if the Tories had unexpectedly pinched it. :(

    LDs really getting squeezed, is that right?

    Yes.

    But does this mean that there is a return of anti-Tory tactical voting?
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Postal votes may help conservatives outside london
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    Priti being interviewed by Mishal. It doesn't get much better than that.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,316
    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    She is entitled to, yes. Tell the rest of the Tory Party!
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Welsh Tory source reckons they've lost Gower and Vale of Clwyd.

    No NE Wales Tory sweep if they've lost Vale of Clywd
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Yes definitely - although her brexit position will not be strong.

    But what if she just falls short?
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Kellner says it's possible the Tories have got 360.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    augustus_carp said:

    If Salmond is going to lose Gordon, who does he lose it to? (Genuine question.)

    Ruth
    Exit poll say LDs
  • Drutt
    Drutt Posts: 1,125
    Sunderland Central UKIP has broken 2:1 to cons. Newcastle the other way around. So yeah nobody knows anything.
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    nailed on Con OM now.
  • houndtang
    houndtang Posts: 450
    Tories doing welll in North, Labour doing well in Sotuh???
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Huge!!!!!!! Kelner says exit poll may be missing postal swing to tories...
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Caution: we've only had results from the NE, which supposedly sound heavily for Con relative to the rest of the country.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Danny565 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Another one, in the words of DJ Khaled. This exit poll....

    However, the exit poll seems to have overestimated the Tories heavily in Wales.
    Yep. Found it odd that it showed them doing so well in Wales, I expected them to do not so well there. Looking like that may be correct.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Bobajob_PB said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    You have to hand it to ITV.

    Getting Ozzy and Balls on is a coup.

    Those two guys are completely wasted outside the Commons.

    A government with Ozzy as PM and Balls as Cote, or vice versa, would be absolutely solid.

    During the State opening of parliament a few years ago, the two were chatting and laughing, as they walked through parliament, as thick as thieves. I got the impression they liked each other.
    Yes, they are friends. Ozzy is a gent – he offered to look after Balls' son in the Radio Five green room in the full knowledge that Balls was about to go on the radio and slag off his policies. Good for him.
    Good on them both. There should be more of that in politics: I disagree with the policies, but (s)he's a good person. Instead in the eyes of supporters it becomes: "They're evil!"

    Though in a few cases, such as Burnham and Leadsom, the latter reaction may be valid. ;)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    JennyFreeman said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Nah, she's fatally damaged.
    Let's see
    If the exit poll is massively wrong and she gets what she expected, the morning papers will look like a bunch of wallys.
  • chloe
    chloe Posts: 308
    Things still seem very uncertain
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    We don't know because all three seats are within a few miles of each other.
  • Carolus_Rex
    Carolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    What the fuck is going on? Postal votes?
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I said I wasn't going to stay up late for this election as I'm up early in the morning. Hard to go to bed at the moment though.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Welsh Tory source reckons they've lost Gower and Vale of Clwyd.

    Shit.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    3 seats now in have a Labour to Tory swing, all Leave, 1 a swing to Labour in a Remain seat
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    Newcastle effect - strong UKIP/Brexit to Con swing - might be echoed (to a lesser extent) in West Yorkshire ?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    houndtang said:

    Tories doing welll in North, Labour doing well in Sotuh???

    Tories doing better in leave areas?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sunderland central would have netted me a nice £75 if the Tories had unexpectedly pinched it. :(

    LDs really getting squeezed, is that right?

    Their vote went up.
    I had the sound off - thanks for confirming
  • Garza
    Garza Posts: 45
    If those North East swings transfer to Yorkshire and the West Midlands..... can't rule out a majority of 50.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Nah, she's fatally damaged.
    It would seem strange to dump someone, if she's won an election (obviously different if she loses her majority).
  • HaroldO
    HaroldO Posts: 1,185
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Nah, she's fatally damaged.
    Yep. MPs will be looking at this campaign, and be wondering how she'll f'up the next one.

    She's a goner, either immediately, or before the next GE.
    If she does get a majority, then she is gone before the next GE yes but I don't think she ever planned on standing in more than one.
    It's about getting that Tory front bench looking fuller for me, and the Labour one. They are both thin currently, which is not good for us all politically.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    SouthamObserver said:

    This exit poll is not just wrong, it is massively wrong.

    Southam, I have never wanted you to be right more than now.

  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Swindon North declared for Con according to ITV.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    We don't know because all three seats are within a few miles of each other.
    Didn't stop them predicting Brexit.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Casino_Royale said:

    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Welsh Tory source reckons they've lost Gower and Vale of Clwyd.

    Shit.
    The exit poll is supposed to be better for the Tories in Wales?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    BenedictWhite said:

    Sunderland central has been updated on my spreadsheet good for Conservatives.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=0

    Do you keep track of the running swing for 2017?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/872930152451366912
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    john curtice could be damaged tonight
  • Oliver
    Oliver Posts: 33
    Looks like either Curtice or May will have a career in shreds tomorrow :smile:
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Huge!!!!!!! Kelner says exit poll may be missing postal swing to tories...

    BUT if Hastings going red that who knows what is happening.

    I think we will get very weird results in different areas because of the Brexit effect.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    Labour: huge swing to Cons in postal votes outside London -BBC

    My mum voted Conservative (postal vote) this week, so she'd be one of those. We're in Watford.
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    Dunno. Tories picking up Ukip votes where it doesn't matter? Dunno.

    I would expect Labour to do well (relatively) in the South and not so well (relatively) in the North. And very well in London.

    But it's just too early to say, as we have only had results from the Newcastle area.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    Is this the worst exit poll in history?

    Nah, the 1987 exit poll predicted a hung parliament, Mrs Thatcher in reality won a majority of 100
    It didn't, it predicted a Tory majority of 26. The BBC one that is.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Garza said:

    If those North East swings transfer to Yorkshire and the West Midlands..... can't rule out a majority of 50.

    Not when Amber Rudd is a goner and Swindon and Croydon Central and Gower and Vale of Clywd
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Chameleon said:

    Swindon North declared for Con according to ITV.

    OK. If it had gone Lab that would have been disastrous.
This discussion has been closed.

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