I'm all set up for the evening with my laptop powered up, tv on, Lidl amaretto to the right and tesco value vodka and coke to the left and am tucked up in bed. Here we go...
The FDP in Germany did not disband when they fell below the 5% threshold and lost all their seats in the Bundestag. Why would the LDs disband if they were reduced to just Alistair Carmichael?
@rosskempsell: OK, from what I'm hearing, this is shaping up to be a longer night than some thought
Oh god
Would probably just mean small Tory majority, so it will take a long time to confirm that. If it were Labour most seats or large gains, that would become clear very quickly.
As a long time lurker but first time poster during this campaign, may I record my gratitude to Mike and Robert Smithson, TSE and all the rest of the brilliant PB team. Throughout the last weeks, this site has been not only utterly addictive, but also an invaluable source of wisdom, humour and insight. It is the first site I visit every morning, the last I switch off every night. Whatever happens from 10pm, it has been gripping to follow PB over the course of the campaign Now just 17 minutes to go.
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
I hope I am wrong
Are you SeanT?
No - saying it as I see it
Forgot to mention - yesterday I did the North Wales Coast Line from Chester to Holyhead, with a brief stopover at Lladudno Junction. Saw a Hawk trainer land at Valley RAF as we were passing through westbound!
On Monday I did Thomas Land at Drayton Manor Park and Zoo. Lots of trains doing some very odd manoeuvers.
I'm all set up for the evening with my laptop powered up, tv on, Lidl amaretto to the right and tesco value vodka and coke to the left and am tucked up in bed. Here we go...
LD head of campaigns has emailed that Cheadle and Hazel Grove are MOE.
I find that implausible.
Anecdote of the day. The Conservatives knocked our house up today, despite never having canvassed it. Clearly our road is so prosperous that they assumed that *everyone* was a Tory voter.
I'm beginning to suspect the LDs will essentially swap C&W for Twickenham to remain flat in London. (I'm assuming Richmond Park will be won by the Zac the Cock.)
Thats a good call from what ive seen today Robert. I know you will think this is rubbish but one of the Tory knocking up teams was cheered in a larhely C1 C2 area tonight..it is asto ishing..
I'm all set up for the evening with my laptop powered up, tv on, Lidl amaretto to the right and tesco value vodka and coke to the left and am tucked up in bed. Here we go...
That's quite an armoury !
Lets hope that I'm reaching to the right, not the both at the same time at 10.01.
Been told a lot of young/first time people in a station near me - which is infuriating, as those could be two separate categories, who might vote very differently- first time 60+ voter in my house (though self described as a labour man) vote Tory after all.
Sgt. Sunil: Alright, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
As a long time lurker but first time poster during this campaign, may I record my gratitude to Mike and Robert Smithson, TSE and all the rest of the brilliant PB team. Throughout the last weeks, this site has been not only utterly addictive, but also an invaluable source of wisdom, humour and insight. It is the first site I visit every morning, the last I switch off every night. Whatever happens from 10pm, it has been gripping to follow PB over the course of the campaign Now just 17 minutes to go.
I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.
I've felt it my duty to stop marxism.
Wow. I thought you were sounding solid.
Funny thing happened to me on the way to the polling station. It has been clear to me for a while I was going to vote Labour in what is now my safe Tory seat. But en route the thought entered my head to vote UKIP instead. Not til I walked to the door did the thought leave my head.
It was a "safe" UKIP vote in that their candidate wasn't some racist nutter - actually ethnic minority himself and seemed a sensible sort of chap - and the idea of applying some minute Brexiteer pressure on the Mrs May was attractive to me. But I reckon the reason I thought about it was that the smiling face of the UKIP candidate had gazed at me from the letter rack as I left the house, his leaflet having randomly been put in first position. Weird.
LD head of campaigns has emailed that Cheadle and Hazel Grove are MOE.
I find that implausible.
Anecdote of the day. The Conservatives knocked our house up today, despite never having canvassed it. Clearly our road is so prosperous that they assumed that *everyone* was a Tory voter.
As a long time lurker but first time poster during this campaign, may I record my gratitude to Mike and Robert Smithson, TSE and all the rest of the brilliant PB team. Throughout the last weeks, this site has been not only utterly addictive, but also an invaluable source of wisdom, humour and insight. It is the first site I visit every morning, the last I switch off every night. Whatever happens from 10pm, it has been gripping to follow PB over the course of the campaign Now just 17 minutes to go.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
Or just pack it in.
Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.
They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.
Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
I think what they've lost over the last 10 years is a cohesive philosophy that they can all subscribe to. It's not easy to survive in the wilderness without that.
??? I thought the success of the LDs from 1992 to 2010 was based around the complete absence of a cohesive policy. You know, be Eurosceptic in the West country, and Eurofanatic in West London.
Okay. 12minutes to go. Big Ben will remain silent now until the moment we have all be waiting for... A prediction of the final result, which was somewhat incorrect last time
Not what I expected before the campaign but I would absolutely take it right now if on offer.
That fucking shite manifesto...
It should never have been this close.
We always knew the local Lab operation was unphased by Jezza, and that there is a strong core Lab vote. And so it has turned out. Talk of a landslide was always wishful thinking.
People thought Ed Miliband might win at this point in 2015
Yes, I was so surprised by the exit poll. That's my worry now - I'm expecting a comfortable (though not huge majority) and if I'm wrong again, which direction?
Not what I expected before the campaign but I would absolutely take it right now if on offer.
That fucking shite manifesto...
It should never have been this close.
We always knew the local Lab operation was unphased by Jezza, and that there is a strong core Lab vote. And so it has turned out. Talk of a landslide was always wishful thinking.
Wishful, but not absurd - how strong the core was was unclear, how divided the party, the locals were bad etc etc
Funny thing happened to me on the way to the polling station. It has been clear to me for a while I was going to vote Labour in what is now my safe Tory seat. But en route the thought entered my head to vote UKIP instead. Not til I walked to the door did the thought leave my head.
It was a "safe" UKIP vote in that their candidate wasn't some racist nutter - actually ethnic minority himself and seemed a sensible sort of chap - and the idea of applying some minute Brexiteer pressure on the Mrs May was attractive to me. But I reckon the reason I thought about it was that the smiling face of the UKIP candidate had gazed at me from the letter rack as I left the house, his leaflet having randomly been put in first position. Weird.
Evening all. Popcorn at the ready. T minus thirty minutes!
How easy is it to emigrate to Dubai?
Not too difficult if you can get a job or can buy a visa for a couple of grand. I think I might have a lot more company out here if Corbyn wins tonight!
As a long time lurker but first time poster during this campaign, may I record my gratitude to Mike and Robert Smithson, TSE and all the rest of the brilliant PB team. Throughout the last weeks, this site has been not only utterly addictive, but also an invaluable source of wisdom, humour and insight. It is the first site I visit every morning, the last I switch off every night. Whatever happens from 10pm, it has been gripping to follow PB over the course of the campaign Now just 17 minutes to go.
I'm sat in Omagh leisure centre and I have achieved the important goal of grabbing a seat next to a plug. Ulster Unionist first and hopefully not only success of the night!
My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.
My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.
My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.
In a way I hope most for just a comfortable majority so I can go to sleep early - I'm exhausted, didn't sleep well yesterday and tried napping today to no avail.
Landslide? Worth staying up for, for the historicness of it. Corbyn doing really well? I won't be sleeping if that happens anyway. But a comfortable majority? Yeah, then I could rest.
My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.
She was in Vauxhall.
A great lesson: we are not average voters.
Credits roll on the programme before on BBC. Here we go...
Comments
(Yes,I'm bloody nervous)
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872914540903751681
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/596419373608345600
Anecdote of the day. The Conservatives knocked our house up today, despite never having canvassed it. Clearly our road is so prosperous that they assumed that *everyone* was a Tory voter.
I know you will think this is rubbish but one of the Tory knocking up teams was cheered in a larhely C1 C2 area tonight..it is asto ishing..
Remember Ave it projection Con maj 66
DYOR!!!!
If LD make gains from Con, the lead needed for Con to get a majority goes up - might well need lead of approx 8%.
Could easily be on knife edge.
BRING IT ON!
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
Funny thing happened to me on the way to the polling station. It has been clear to me for a while I was going to vote Labour in what is now my safe Tory seat. But en route the thought entered my head to vote UKIP instead. Not til I walked to the door did the thought leave my head.
It was a "safe" UKIP vote in that their candidate wasn't some racist nutter - actually ethnic minority himself and seemed a sensible sort of chap - and the idea of applying some minute Brexiteer pressure on the Mrs May was attractive to me. But I reckon the reason I thought about it was that the smiling face of the UKIP candidate had gazed at me from the letter rack as I left the house, his leaflet having randomly been put in first position. Weird.
May has performed below par.
Edit: and implies spreads are there or thereabouts
That fucking shite manifesto...
It should never have been this close.
Not long until we get to enjoy/suffer the exit poll.
Kopparberg Mixed Fruit is my tipple of choice. If the exit poll says Hung Parliament then I'll be fetching a bottle of Malt.
PB seems to be slowing up! Wonder how many are on the site at the moment?
IT'S CHRISTMAS MORNING FOR POLITICAL GEEKS
I now understand what happened to David Herdson the other day...
Seven minutes!
BBC News Live Election coverage stream OK in the USA. Also Sky news is streaming live direct from their website.
She was in Vauxhall.
Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
Landslide? Worth staying up for, for the historicness of it. Corbyn doing really well? I won't be sleeping if that happens anyway. But a comfortable majority? Yeah, then I could rest.
Credits roll on the programme before on BBC. Here we go...