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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember how at EURef Newcastle and Sunderland gave us the fir

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    OMFG OMFG
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    GBP in a nose dive
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    OMFG OMFG OMFG
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,367

    NEW THREAD

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HaroldO said:

    NOM is the worst of all worlds, no one will work with each other for long enough after last time and the markets will go banana's.

    Speaking as a NOM backer, I hope this exit poll is more accurate than some have been in the past.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    I'm less confident in this than normal due to the potential lack of UNS.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    If different folk are voting, the exit poll may have broken. That's what I'm clinging to....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    This can't be right. 14 LD and 34 snp? No way.

    SLAB resurgent must be the answer.

    Glad I backed them in clydeside

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Jesus.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,845
    May must go

    #Priti4Leader
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,139
    So, who's the next Tory leader?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,556
    edited June 2017
    Turns out that my wobble was fully justified after all.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,023
    May won't survive that
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Well Corbyn can't be PM on those numbers at the very least. A rainbow coalition doesn't even get him to 300.

    How can May hope to govern though....?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TM = Gordon Brown.
  • AHMatlockAHMatlock Posts: 15
    Well, that's not looking very good is it?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Osborne's cheeky grin in evidence.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Am digging in. Fat lady...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,574
    A bunch of Northern Irishmen rubbing their hands with glee......
  • vikvik Posts: 159
    My (small) Hung Parliament bet looking good. :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Where are Labour cleaning up if this is true? London, Scotland?
  • Brexit fucked
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    new thread I think
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    kle4 said:

    No way on earth this exit poll is right.

    Hello Paddy Ashdown.
    You want another bet on Tory seats?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    All I can say is

    image
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    It would take three parties working together to out vote the Tories from that, which would be insane to get working.
    This is why I support a change to FPTP.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,269
    I miss Cameron I really do...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,495
    Oh dear.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    Right, now I've calmed down a bit - this has to mean large numbers of wins in Scotland for Labour - some of these must be very very close given the huge SNP majorities, so I can see it changing by 10 or so.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    rcs1000 said:

    So, who's the next Tory leader?

    Boris
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Thrasher on Sky now.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    My preferred outcome, but not financially!

    Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    McDonnell isn't convinced by the exit poll...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Where are these 34 labour gains?!!!
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Thrasher
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    That's my betting balance wiped out then.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    Quite simply this would be the most sensational result in British political history. I cannot believe it.
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    I honestly think this can go still go worse for CON. Question next: can LAB become largest party? wow, the effect of the youth vote!
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    What a disaster for the country if this is true
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,841
    I've backed NOM at 2.1
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,631
    Well shit in a bag and punch it
  • rcs1000 said:

    So, who's the next Tory leader?

    Boris or Gove.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,098
    Brom said:

    Where are these 34 labour gains?!!!

    Presumably the Tory losses and SNP losses....

    Can't see it myself.

    Con on 350 my revised projection.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    This is consistent with what has been briefed since about 5pm... assuming of course that we see the CON figure creep up like last time
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,352
    October Election.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434

    I did predict it earlier

    I nearly replied to your post saying the opposite, glad I lost signal on my train now...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    February 1974 all over again
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Blue_rog said:

    What a disaster for the country if this is true

    And the blame for it lies with Weak and Wobbly
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Has betfair crashed? Con maj 1.92
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 596
    Supposing it's true where on earth do Labour pick up all these extra seats?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    Ok I'm done with my reverse ferret, only down about £450
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Quite simply this would be the most sensational result in British political history. I cannot believe it.

    We could still end up with a small Tory majority.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Brom said:

    Where are these 34 labour gains?!!!

    I backed Lab in a lot of SNP seats and Con marginals. Should help balance my books.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,755
    Please let this be true...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    JCICIPM of a Lab + SNP + LD + PC + Green + SDLP coalition?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    looks like I called it wrong. Totally shocked.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    dodrade said:

    Supposing it's true where on earth do Labour pick up all these extra seats?

    No idea.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 596
    Con-DUP coalition? Nigel Dodds next Deputy Prime Minister (provided he keeps his seat).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    May has broken all the models.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Theresa May one of the shortest ever serving PM's?!!!!
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Tough gig for Fallon
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    It's the hope that kills you. :cold_sweat:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,460
    kle4 said:

    Right, now I've calmed down a bit - this has to mean large numbers of wins in Scotland for Labour - some of these must be very very close given the huge SNP majorities, so I can see it changing by 10 or so.

    Mmm. But SNP-Lab results wouldn't change the anti-Tory outcome.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    East Lothian should be a big winner
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    Looks as if Tim Farron will have the last laugh together with the DUP.

    Hard Brexit gone, new Conservative leader and coalition mark 2 with lib dems
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,755
    Still think this will swing back to the Tories a bit but I'll take back where she was.

    She deserved this though. Arrogant, evasive, authoritarian. Horrid campaign.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    nielh said:

    looks like I called it wrong. Totally shocked.

    You're not the only one! I feel like a complete pri*k right now
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited June 2017
    image

    ...
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Got to hand it to Corbyn.

    May out by breakfast?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,755
    hunchman said:

    dodrade said:

    Supposing it's true where on earth do Labour pick up all these extra seats?

    No idea.
    Labour vote in the South suppressed. Just not turning out for years. Bet they've won a few down south and lost up north.
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    dodrade said:

    Con-DUP coalition? Nigel Dodds next Deputy Prime Minister (provided he keeps his seat).

    As a unionist from Northern Ireland. F**k.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    Hastings and Amber Rudd in trouble
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    IG midpoint con 327?
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    absolute disaster. Only hope is like last time Tories do slightly better than poll and they scrape a majority.
  • wasterwaster Posts: 1
    The exit polls may not be all they're cracked up to be. In Tory Pembrokeshire they are taking the exit poll in Milford the most Labour part. If that's happening elsewhere my investments are still safe.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    hunchman said:

    nielh said:

    looks like I called it wrong. Totally shocked.

    You're not the only one! I feel like a complete pri*k right now
    Looks like a total rejection of politics as usual.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Got to hand it to Corbyn.

    May out by breakfast?

    Nailed on.

    I told you she was crap.

    Should have done the debates, and not written her own manifesto.

    Kippers must have gone red as much as blue.

  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    hunchman said:

    Theresa May one of the shortest ever serving PM's?!!!!

    They'll start calling her the worse in history. Worse even than Brown. The knives will soon be out for her. What a disaster.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,411
    Alot of those Lib Dem gains must be in Scotland.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    dazza said:

    hunchman said:

    Theresa May one of the shortest ever serving PM's?!!!!

    They'll start calling her the worse in history. Worse even than Brown. The knives will soon be out for her. What a disaster.
    Shortest serving since Bonar Law in the 1920s. She can't continue if majority is gone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    Horrendous exit poll. Last two have been very accurate (not perfect but close).

    I think I'll stay up until the first couple of seats, see how the swings look.

    The weirdest aspect is Scotland. If the SNP are down to 34 (itself rather surprising me) is that mostly losses to Labour? If the Scottish Conservatives *have* made gains, then in England it must be dire to go backwards. Say 8 SCon seats. To go down 12 overall means losing 20 (net) in England/Wales to Labour.

    *sighs*
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    houndtang said:

    dazza said:

    hunchman said:

    Theresa May one of the shortest ever serving PM's?!!!!

    They'll start calling her the worse in history. Worse even than Brown. The knives will soon be out for her. What a disaster.
    Shortest serving since Bonar Law in the 1920s. She can't continue if majority is gone.
    Agree. How soon will she go? What a mess. Brexit starts in 11 days, and we dont have a government.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830

    Got to hand it to Corbyn.

    May out by breakfast?

    Nailed on.

    I told you she was crap.

    Should have done the debates, and not written her own manifesto.

    Kippers must have gone red as much as blue.

    I am relieved as the likely outcome is a new conservative leader with a lib dem input accepting 1% tax rise for NHS and a softer Brexit all of which is acceptable to me
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    John Lamont in BRS becomes a very, very interesting seat.
  • AR404AR404 Posts: 21
    As people said maybe the crowds do matter
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dazza said:

    hunchman said:

    Theresa May one of the shortest ever serving PM's?!!!!

    They'll start calling her the worse in history. Worse even than Brown. The knives will soon be out for her. What a disaster.
    Comparing May to Brown would be an insult to Brown.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    I can't believe that SNP figure
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,869
    Well done Corbyn. Fantastic result if the exit poll is right. Can't see May surviving past 9am tomorrow morning.

    Another election in three months.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Brom said:

    Where are these 34 labour gains?!!!

    10 in Scotland?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    kle4 said:

    Right, now I've calmed down a bit - this has to mean large numbers of wins in Scotland for Labour - some of these must be very very close given the huge SNP majorities, so I can see it changing by 10 or so.

    Mmm. But SNP-Lab results wouldn't change the anti-Tory outcome.
    No it wouldn't, although let us not get too carried away with that - unless it is very wrong, the Tories are still the most popular party.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Betfair conmaj 1.99. Spread mids: IG 328, SPIN 328
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    TM to resign in days ; new Tory leader; new election called soon ?
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    Alistair said:

    dazza said:

    hunchman said:

    Theresa May one of the shortest ever serving PM's?!!!!

    They'll start calling her the worse in history. Worse even than Brown. The knives will soon be out for her. What a disaster.
    Comparing May to Brown would be an insult to Brown.
    That's true, and as much as I dislike Brown, I appologise. And to think, CON were crowing that they were brave enough to call an election when he wasn't. I bet May wishes she'd never have walked up that Welsh mountain.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Meanwhile in heaven, Gerald Kaufmann finally apologises to Michael Foot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,503
    Mr. Andrew, but how are they divvied up currently?

    76 too close to call means a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable. Or May might increase her majority.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Exit Poll has Labour GAINING High Peak - this is truly extraordinary but is it true?
  • So YouGov had Con doing worse in Wales but according to the exit poll Con doing better in Wales.
This discussion has been closed.