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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    As we enjoy the anticipation of the next 30 minutes, spare a thought for candidates and activists still knocking up. They've been slogging themselves for weeks and more than 15 hours today, and in a close race the efforts in the final hour can make all the difference.

    Respect to all of them, whatever their colours.

    Well said, much respect to them all.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    RobD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Just over 30 mins...

    Deep breaths.
    its the waiting that kills you.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    30 minutes,

    Tick Tock.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    its going to be a long half hour
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463

    All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.

    I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England

    I hope I am wrong

    I'm not sure they've been moving towards Labour.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just got back from knocking up in Ilford North, one woman told she said to colleagues today at work that if Corbyn got in 'She would commit suicide' so I hope for her sake most of the polls are right this time!

    Just to confirm said lady was NOT my mum!
    Thankyou for the confirmation Sunil, I expect your mum is far too stoic for that!
    In fact she's pro-Labour this time around, but did NOT vote.
    Interesting, that is at least 1 vote lost for Labour in Ilford N, I think it will be tight, Streeting has a personal vote but there is also clear hostility to Corbyn
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    Me_Me_ Posts: 66

    Me_ said:

    It's been a while since I don't post here, but I must say that today envy you, having an election while in my country, there's a big possibility we will lose another president in less than a year. Even with this, we won't get a vote!

    Brazil wasn't it, Me? Greetings....
    Yes! Thanks. I miss coming here!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers Worldwide .....

    On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.

    Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.

    And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.

    Well said, but very quickly, how many LD seats did you predict again?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,394
    I think this is the first election without Anthony King.
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.

    I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England

    I hope I am wrong

    Are you SeanT?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    This is agony.

    This is agony.

    It always is!

    And then the exit poll.

    And the agony - is it right?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    My wife has just got to the polling station and is voting Tory in the key marginal of NE Hampshire.

    I think I would prefer my wife to to be a secret gangbang dogger than a Tory voter......

    Anyhow pbers......it's only an election....there will be others to look forward to.....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?

    If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
    Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
    Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
    So if there is only one then issues will be had.
    I cannot see off hand any provision for what to do in a situation where the party is reduced so much - I imagine the Federal Committee would need to decide what to do (join Labour, probably)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Do you think Theresa's wrote her resignation speech (just in case) ? Do you think Jezza has?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    This is like the 2005 Ashes test match when Giles and Hoggard were batting England to victory.

    Agony, ecstasy, tension, fear, hope, joy, and delirium tremens all rolled into one
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.

    I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England

    I hope I am wrong

    It would be THE most damning indictment of Theresa May possible.
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    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    TudorRose said:

    Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?

    I have been sitting in a hide all day with my binoculars trained on the polling station and I have yet to see one.
    Have the Cleggasm voters turned up yet?
    I believe they are still roaming the countryside aimlessly after many years but I think one has been reported to Spring Watch.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    I think this is the first election without Anthony King.

    Boy, he must have been OLD. :D
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    GIN1138 said:

    Do you think Theresa's wrote her resignation speech (just in case) ? Do you think Jezza has?

    Jez. God no.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    tyson said:

    My wife has just got to the polling station and is voting Tory in the key marginal of NE Hampshire.

    I think I would prefer my wife to to be a secret gangbang dogger than a Tory voter......

    Anyhow pbers......it's only an election....there will be others to look forward to.....
    But please not for another 5 years!
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Just looked at twitter and the post poll rationalization has started looks all "well done Jez we had a good campaign" not many "were going to win"
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,006
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?

    If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
    Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
    Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
    If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
    Or just pack it in.
    Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.

    They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.

    Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    kle4 said:

    Looking very strong in 2 out of 3 constituencies for Lab.

    80% TURNOUT IN lOWGATES GIVES A GLIMMER IN ne dERBYS BUT STILL EXPECT TO LOSE THERE

    Look John, we cannot have both sides bedwetting now.
    We can and i am hoping i have set my expectations lower than in 2015

    Would settle for an exit poll giving Tories LT 50 majority.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Sandpit said:

    Evening all. Popcorn at the ready. T minus thirty minutes!

    How easy is it to emigrate to Dubai?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325
    Sandpit said:

    Evening all. Popcorn at the ready. T minus thirty minutes!

    I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    I'm wondering where the value will lie after the exit poll, if the tories are marginally short, May Majority will likely be good value, and if the LDs have run, as I suspect they may have, 15 or 20 by-elections across the country, then there may be upside on them.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    TudorRose said:

    tyson said:

    My wife has just got to the polling station and is voting Tory in the key marginal of NE Hampshire.

    I think I would prefer my wife to to be a secret gangbang dogger than a Tory voter......

    Anyhow pbers......it's only an election....there will be others to look forward to.....
    But please not for another 5 years!
    If it's Jezza there may not be the numbers to have stable government to last 5 years!

    Cons by 40 please.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,315

    All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.

    I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England

    I hope I am wrong

    Are you SeanT?
    No - saying it as I see it
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    tyson said:

    My wife has just got to the polling station and is voting Tory in the key marginal of NE Hampshire.

    I think I would prefer my wife to to be a secret gangbang dogger than a Tory voter......

    Anyhow pbers......it's only an election....there will be others to look forward to.....
    Possibly as soon as October if Big G is right! ;)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,006
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?

    If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
    Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
    Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
    So if there is only one then issues will be had.
    I cannot see off hand any provision for what to do in a situation where the party is reduced so much - I imagine the Federal Committee would need to decide what to do (join Labour, probably)
    There is literally no chance that will happen.
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited June 2017
    Echo the thanks to OGH et al for keeping us all out of mischief with PB.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    edited June 2017

    This is like the 2005 Ashes test match when Giles and Hoggard were batting England to victory.

    Agony, ecstasy, tension, fear, hope, joy, and delirium tremens all rolled into one

    Come on Saint Jeremiah of Islington.....get in myson....


    Am trying to be impartial.....
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    tyson said:

    My wife has just got to the polling station and is voting Tory in the key marginal of NE Hampshire.

    I think I would prefer my wife to to be a secret gangbang dogger than a Tory voter......

    Anyhow pbers......it's only an election....there will be others to look forward to.....
    as one of a bunch of tories who often give her a good seeing to you need not worry, she still votes UKIP
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    RobD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Just over 30 mins...

    Deep breaths.

    can we please have a nominated exit poll poster so that at 10pm we don't have 20 posts of the result?
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Still zippo market movement, Betfair 1.2ish con maj, spreads C360/210ish
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?

    If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
    Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
    Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
    If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
    Or just pack it in.
    Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.

    They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.

    Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
    If the election leaves them with a Liberal, centrist leader and atlas 3 seats they'll be in a better position exiting the election than going into it in my eyes.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    How entertaining would it be if the Tories only got a majority due to gains in Scotland? Imagine St Nicola having to explain to her disciples how her party's under performance had led to a Tory government
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Just over 30 mins...

    Deep breaths.

    can we please have a nominated exit poll poster so that at 10pm we don't have 20 posts of the result?
    Where's the fun in that? :p
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,394
    I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Sitting with the chinchilla's and awaiting the exit poll.....ufff stressful. I think once the votes are counted and done I will be ok, either way. But currently I am nervous, I do not support one party and never have but the idea of a Corbyn PM is worrying for two reasons;

    1) It will be a disaster in terms of finances;
    2) When he fails he will disenfranchise a huge amount of young voters.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.

    I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England

    I hope I am wrong

    I'm not sure they've been moving towards Labour.
    I've heard mildly positive things the other way. Just shows you need to be careful about who you listen to.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Hello everybody,

    I JUST THOUGHT I would post on here today because I voted for the TORIES, the reason being Labour would ban me from appearing in videos due to me being a dwarf!

    http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x227rl_men-without-hats-safety-dance_music
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    nichomar said:

    Just looked at twitter and the post poll rationalization has started looks all "well done Jez we had a good campaign" not many "were going to win"

    That is not the fear of some of us - it's that we won't have a decisive winner, or not substantial enough to get rid of Corbyn, not that he might win.

    If he does, I shall be so stunned by a surge not even YouGov's model picked up, I won't be able to react with horror.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    I'm drinking.

    I need to stay sober to finish coming up with an escape plan.
    I've got a son to get to school tomorrow morning. Mutters about the bus have been stoutly ignored.
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    wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account

    @benatipsosmori: Not long to the exit poll at 10. Having worked since 7am our 300 interviewers (and me) are fascinated by the result #GE2107


    Is this a hint? NOC?

    WillS/
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Has anyone got worse value than my brandy-induced 6/4 Con Gain Huddersfield?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.

    I think (okay, maybe hope) that's right.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017

    All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.

    I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England

    I hope I am wrong

    Tis how I feel right now, and I predicted a 100 seat majority earlier! Oh May why oh why didn't you run a better campaign......
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    SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    If this exit poll has the BBC calling a tory majority at 10.00pm, I reckon that will be the first time since 1987
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    kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    edited June 2017

    I think this is the first election without Anthony King.

    Having only secured a majority of 124 this is truly a terrible night for the Conservatives :-)

    He and a young whppersnapper called Andrew Rawnsley were the pin up boys of my A level Politics class
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?

    If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
    Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
    Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
    If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
    Or just pack it in.
    Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.

    They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.

    Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
    It's never easy being a lib dem but you know in you heart there will be others to take your place and keep campaigning for your community. It was never a career move but an expression of belief. Now waits for incoming in the next 20 mins
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    This is like the 2005 Ashes test match when Giles and Hoggard were batting England to victory.

    Agony, ecstasy, tension, fear, hope, joy, and delirium tremens all rolled into one

    As I droned on about earlier, I was at the ground that day near some ignorant fucking Aussie fans who refused to clap at the end. Dicks.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Martin Boon doesn't seem that confident...
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    How entertaining would it be if the Tories only got a majority due to gains in Scotland? Imagine St Nicola having to explain to her disciples how her party's under performance had led to a Tory government

    Ruth's standing in the party would be stratospheric.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,006
    @kle4

    The FDP in Germany did not disband when they fell below the 5% threshold and lost all their seats in the Bundestag. Why would the LDs disband if they were reduced to just Alistair Carmichael?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308

    This is like the 2005 Ashes test match when Giles and Hoggard were batting England to victory.

    Agony, ecstasy, tension, fear, hope, joy, and delirium tremens all rolled into one

    Not to mention a good sense of the ridiculous.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    wills66 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account

    @benatipsosmori: Not long to the exit poll at 10. Having worked since 7am our 300 interviewers (and me) are fascinated by the result #GE2107


    Is this a hint? NOC?

    WillS/

    I think that means they are fascinated to find out the result. The interviewers wouldn't know (well, not the actual estimate).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    So...that Comey testimony, huh?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Hearing Tories hurting in London #GE2017
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Chameleon said:

    I'm wondering where the value will lie after the exit poll, if the tories are marginally short, May Majority will likely be good value, and if the LDs have run, as I suspect they may have, 15 or 20 by-elections across the country, then there may be upside on them.

    I usually get on Tories after Lab ahead by 10 seats to 1 (even though they should be) as some seem to panic.


    Never failed to make money on GE night.

    Even got out of a heavily entrenched EICIPM position in 2015 to make a profit.


    Have to have balls though.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.

    I've felt it my duty to stop marxism.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The attack video wot wun it closing on 8m views
    here
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    Sky News have just Rickrolled the country.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    wills66 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account

    @benatipsosmori: Not long to the exit poll at 10. Having worked since 7am our 300 interviewers (and me) are fascinated by the result #GE2107


    Is this a hint? NOC?

    WillS/

    Or the polls are as they were at the start of the campaign, before YouGov?

    They are always going to sell it as "fascinating"! Hardly going to say "meh....." are they?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    wills66 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account

    @benatipsosmori: Not long to the exit poll at 10. Having worked since 7am our 300 interviewers (and me) are fascinated by the result #GE2107


    Is this a hint? NOC?

    WillS/

    Could just mean they're fascinated to see the outcome of their hard work.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,932
    LD head of campaigns has emailed that Cheadle and Hazel Grove are MOE.
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    Time for me to repeat my robotic mantra - still think it will be a tory majority of 30-60.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,325

    All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.

    I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England

    I hope I am wrong

    Are you SeanT?
    No - saying it as I see it
    Forgot to mention - yesterday I did the North Wales Coast Line from Chester to Holyhead, with a brief stopover at Lladudno Junction. Saw a Hawk trainer land at Valley RAF as we were passing through westbound!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    rcs1000 said:

    @kle4

    The FDP in Germany did not disband when they fell below the 5% threshold and lost all their seats in the Bundestag. Why would the LDs disband if they were reduced to just Alistair Carmichael?

    It wasn't a serious suggestion.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Hearing Tories hurting in London #GE2017

    Wasn't that to be expected?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    clucking bell I am excited and nervous.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Con 1.06 most seats SJ!!

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Chameleon said:

    JackW said:

    Good Evening PBers Worldwide .....

    On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.

    Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.

    And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.

    Well said, but very quickly, how many LD seats did you predict again?
    Eight.
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    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Noises from deep inside the party that it'll be 345 seats +/- 10
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Hearing Tories hurting in London #GE2017

    Trouble is there aren't that many seats for Labour to gain in London... And if London accounts for majority of Lab's poll increase...
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Tories doing badly in London isn't a surprise. It's Midlands and the North where they need to do well.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.

    I think that's courageous. There are some people (on both sides) who feel the duty to turn out against Despicable Labour or Despicable Tories regardless of the weakness of their "own" candidate but there are perhaps more who go for whoever seems a more decent sort in the week or two before polling day. I'm really not convinced that the electorate on the front line in marginals are any more conscious of this duty than those in safe seats.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Rexel56 said:

    Noises from deep inside the party that it'll be 345 seats +/- 10

    That's not good
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,006
    Chameleon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?

    If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
    Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
    Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
    If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
    Or just pack it in.
    Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.

    They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.

    Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
    If the election leaves them with a Liberal, centrist leader and atlas 3 seats they'll be in a better position exiting the election than going into it in my eyes.
    I think that's right. Unseating Farron and ending up with (say) Jo Swinson as LibDem leader would be a rather Pyrrhic victory.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    jonny83 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Hearing Tories hurting in London #GE2017

    Wasn't that to be expected?
    As ever with these comments, it depends what it means. Losing a couple of seats? Yes, probably expected. Losing quite a few? Still a bit of a problem.
    tlg86 said:

    I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.

    I think (okay, maybe hope) that's right.
    We can hope - we do know Labour are up in the South, where their chances of gains is very low.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463
    Rexel56 said:

    Noises from deep inside the party that it'll be 345 seats +/- 10

    I'd take it.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosskempsell: OK, from what I'm hearing, this is shaping up to be a longer night than some thought
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047

    This is like the 2005 Ashes test match when Giles and Hoggard were batting England to victory.

    Agony, ecstasy, tension, fear, hope, joy, and delirium tremens all rolled into one

    A fair few people might think the campaign resembles Headingley '81. I'm sticking to my guns and a big Tory majority. Let's not forget that if Theresa gets a 20+ majority it's the best any Tory leader has done in 30 years.
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    Polling station busy all day in Exminster (Devon Central). Safe Con but Lib Dems did well in locals.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    I think It time to start drinking,
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Hearing Tories hurting in London #GE2017

    Wasn't he hearing earlier that Labour's vote wasn't coming out???
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,134
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?

    If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
    Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
    Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
    If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
    Or just pack it in.
    Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.

    They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.

    Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
    I think what they've lost over the last 10 years is a cohesive philosophy that they can all subscribe to. It's not easy to survive in the wilderness without that.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463
    Scott_P said:

    @rosskempsell: OK, from what I'm hearing, this is shaping up to be a longer night than some thought

    Oh god
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017
    345 +/-10?

    So after all this it could just be 5 seats more than in 2015.

    My prediction was a majority the same-sized as 2015's....
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,394
    Rexel56 said:

    Noises from deep inside the party that it'll be 345 seats +/- 10

    Can we please not post things like that on here please unless very well sourced?

    A lot of us have very expensive spread positions.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Paul Waugh‏Verified account @paulwaugh 35s35 seconds ago

    Lab sources say things looking very bad for the party in Yorkshire, N East, Midlands. + Some NWest marginals. But some surprises elsewhere
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    OK - now i'm nervous
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited June 2017

    Rexel56 said:

    Noises from deep inside the party that it'll be 345 seats +/- 10

    I'd take it.
    335? Bloody waste. They're expected to make half a dozen or more gains just in Scotland, that would mean no net progress anywhere else.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    The regional splits in the exit poll are the fascinating ones.....

    20 minutes
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    jonny83 said:

    Paul Waugh‏Verified account @paulwaugh 35s35 seconds ago

    Lab sources say things looking very bad for the party in Yorkshire, N East, Midlands. + Some NWest marginals. But some surprises elsewhere

    Now I feel a bit better
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    It is the Hope that kills, over soon.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Before it all goes crazy I'll also just say that after 10 years posting on here and a few more reading it, this is still the 'place' I'd want to be on a major election night. Great credit to OGH and others.
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