politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017 right?
With just one firm still to publish, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard, the above Wikipedia list looks like the almost final polling table of 2017.
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First on GE Day?0
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Can't believe that neither Rob_D nor PfP nabbed this one.0
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Third! Like SLAB......maybe....0
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Well said:
Well done to ICM and Survation. You might both be wrong and the answer lies somewhere in the middle but you were both brave enough to stick by your guns.
The less said about the YouGov "model", the better.0 -
FPT:
It also shows Moray in the blue column!fitalass said:
Its their predictions/figures for Banff and Buchan and Gordon that I find really fascinating when you consider who vacated the former seat to then go onto win the latter seat.AndyJS said:Stirling is heading into the Tory column according to this interesting prediction website:
http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/0 -
Morning from SL. Take your pick from the polls! I'll take Qriously please!
In all seriousness, here is my prediction
C 365
L 201
LD 13
SNP 49
O 22
Tory majority 780 -
Hmm......here's my predict.
C 345
L 223
LD 14
O 21
SNP 470 -
If anyone wants to reminisce, here's the thread where the 2015 exit poll was announced.
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-wales0 -
Are we still awaiting one more poll ?
As everyone else is making predictions I shall join in
Cons 337
Lab 241
LD 6
SNP 45
NI 18
Pc 2
Green 1
Almost status quo ante bellum, 2 months of article 50 time wasted for very little gain.
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The exit poll was as good as it got for Labour. Horrible night, truly horrible...RobD said:If anyone wants to reminisce, here's the thread where the 2015 exit poll was announced.
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-wales
Anyway, I made the right choice that day, shame many others didn't.0 -
FIRST – after minor adjustments to methodology and DK unweighting.0
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Morning from the big sandpit, and a lovely morning it is too. Hope the weather stays good in the UK, good luck to all those involved today in canvassing, telling, getting out the vote and otherwise engaged - especially to @Tissue_Price @Lennon and any other candidates.
Most importantly, tell everyone to vote, this democracy thing is important!0 -
Tenth like UKIP
A calm day so far.
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RobD said:
If anyone wants to reminisce, here's the thread where the 2015 exit poll was announced.
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-walesTheuniondivvie said:End of the Union pier show if the exit poll is right.
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So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?0
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Not at war with Qatar/Iran yet? Qatar Airways are having to make some serious route diversions! (My second favourite ME carrier after Emirates).Sandpit said:Morning from the big sandpit, and a lovely morning it is too. Hope the weather stays good in the UK, good luck to all those involved today in canvassing, telling, getting out the vote and otherwise engaged - especially to @Tissue_Price @Lennon and any other candidates.
Most importantly, tell everyone to vote, this democracy thing is important!0 -
Well the betting markets seem to be closer to the ICM than the YouGov forecast for what might happen.
Con Majority now 1.18 on Betfair (cue hundreds of comments about NOM being 1.12 at this point in 2015!) and Spreadex mid point now up to 370 Con seats.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
https://www.spreadex.com/sports/mobile/page/spr/573773/1/23355640 -
C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 220 -
A Con minority government would be funniest, I think, and is certainly within the bounds of possibility.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
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Looks like we're still in the proxy war phase right now, but Qatar is rapidly running out of supplies due to the blockade. I'd image the change in policy isn't too far away now, as all their neighbours cut them off.CarlottaVance said:
Not at war with Qatar/Iran yet? Qatar Airways are having to make some serious route diversions! (My second favourite ME carrier after Emirates).Sandpit said:Morning from the big sandpit, and a lovely morning it is too. Hope the weather stays good in the UK, good luck to all those involved today in canvassing, telling, getting out the vote and otherwise engaged - especially to @Tissue_Price @Lennon and any other candidates.
Most importantly, tell everyone to vote, this democracy thing is important!
Qatar Airways are massively inconvenienced, they're losing all the Gulf regional traffic and as you say are having to make some epic diversions to get anywhere to the south. Was supposed to be flying with them DXB>DOH>LHR in a couple of weeks but have had to rebook on another airline.
https://mobile.twitter.com/flightradar24/status/8719121942538895360 -
Some better tips in the subsequent thread (although did UKIP cycle through several leaders until they actually got to His Serene Highness Dr Paul Nuttall VC DSO?)CarlottaVance said:RobD said:If anyone wants to reminisce, here's the thread where the 2015 exit poll was announced.
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-walesTheuniondivvie said:End of the Union pier show if the exit poll is right.
MP_SE said:Paul Nuttall as next leader of UKIP has to be value at 7/1 if they do really well in the north.
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The bed wetters are washing their sheets....they'll be with us shortly...The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
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@CarlottaVance LOL
How possible do people here think a Labour minority government is? And would it be able to do all the things in Corbyn's manifesto?DecrepitJohnL said:
A Con minority government would be funniest, I think, and is certainly within the bounds of possibility.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
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I'm happy that the bet I put on at 1/4 is now 1/6, put it that wayThe_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
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Like a Le Pen victory in France - funny for five minutes, then a nightmare for five years! Or probably a lot less.....DecrepitJohnL said:
A Con minority government would be funniest, I think, and is certainly within the bounds of possibility.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
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I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
The more interesting stuff begins on 9th June. This election has seen perceptions of May change markedly. That will have longer term consequences, both here in the UK and for the Brexit negotiations.
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See Survation lol. This time UKIP's vote seems to have disappeared on eve of poll.CarlottaVance said:
Some better tips in the subsequent thread (although did UKIP cycle through several leaders until they actually got to His Serene Highness Dr Paul Nuttall VC DSO?)CarlottaVance said:RobD said:If anyone wants to reminisce, here's the thread where the 2015 exit poll was announced.
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-walesTheuniondivvie said:End of the Union pier show if the exit poll is right.
MP_SE said:Paul Nuttall as next leader of UKIP has to be value at 7/1 if they do really well in the north.
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I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, placed atop the UKIP sandcastle, just as the tide came in.- LOL.IanB2 said:
See Survation lolCarlottaVance said:
Some better tips in the subsequent thread (although did UKIP cycle through several leaders until they actually got to His Serene Highness Dr Paul Nuttall VC DSO?)CarlottaVance said:RobD said:If anyone wants to reminisce, here's the thread where the 2015 exit poll was announced.
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-walesTheuniondivvie said:End of the Union pier show if the exit poll is right.
MP_SE said:Paul Nuttall as next leader of UKIP has to be value at 7/1 if they do really well in the north.
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It is hard to feel sorry for UKIP. Unlike the LDs last time, this is just deserts. And if they were still at 15% in the polls, do you think Nuttall would have been given the chance to be Leader anyway?SimonStClare said:
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, placed atop the UKIP sandcastle, just as the tide came in.- LOL.IanB2 said:
See Survation lolCarlottaVance said:
Some better tips in the subsequent thread (although did UKIP cycle through several leaders until they actually got to His Serene Highness Dr Paul Nuttall VC DSO?)CarlottaVance said:RobD said:If anyone wants to reminisce, here's the thread where the 2015 exit poll was announced.
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-walesTheuniondivvie said:End of the Union pier show if the exit poll is right.
MP_SE said:Paul Nuttall as next leader of UKIP has to be value at 7/1 if they do really well in the north.
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I was going to avoid PB like the plague this morning - still anxious I might be horribly wrong about the election result - but I woke up at stupid o'clock and am bored and fidgety.
On topic: Survation certainly have piled all their chips on Red for this one. As well as being the only BPC pollster showing a virtual tie, their final Scotland-only poll has Lab 3% ahead of Con.
If Survation are close to the right result and we're into Hung Parliament territory, then they're not only picking up something really important that most of the others aren't, but also the result will run contrary to the mood music coming from most of the focus groups, canvassing returns, and the patterns of the two leaders' campaign visits as well.
Moreover, a result of approximately 40 Con:40 Lab would require an enormous surge from young and non-voters; the majority of Ukip defectors to cross to Lab, not Con; a significant net direct flow of voters from Con to Lab; or, most likely, a combination of the first factor with one of the other two. It just smells terrible.
At the other end of the spectrum, BMG - with a landslide-inducing 13% Tory lead - are, apparently, Labour's house pollster for this election. Something's gotta give...0 -
It was nevertheless a perfect demonstration of the crisis that getting a bad street can bring on in anyone fighting an election. We've all been there.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
The more interesting stuff begins on 9th June. This election has seen perceptions of May change markedly. That will have longer term consequences, both here in the UK and for the Brexit negotiations.
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Just one ....asjohnstone said:Are we still awaiting one more poll ?
UKGE .. Sampling 7am-10pm - Size 31,023,731 ..
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Yes, in his initial post he stated that he stated/implied that Corbyn 'would do it' and predicted Con at 300 (later no more than 325). Nick Palmer thought that he'd just had a bad session but I know it left a few PB Tories on here quite shaken.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
That post did leave me thinking that something may up. But I am still thinking how can Corbyn win/Labour be the largest party in a hung parliament/Con minority with 65+ going so heavily for Con, Kippers going so heavily for Con, and inevitable losses in the Midlands and the North (like you say) for Labour?
So we'll see what happens, but I'd be shocked if it isn't Con majority.0 -
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...0 -
Everyone has doubt until they know! If the Tories don't get across the line it will be a self inflicted chest wound. The announcement about Social care was madness.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
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I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.0 -
That one always gets it wrong.JackW said:
Just one ....asjohnstone said:Are we still awaiting one more poll ?
UKGE .. Sampling 7am-10pm - Size 31,023,731 ..0 -
Of course, the betting markets say 20% chance they fail, Nate Silver says a 1/3.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
Think of it this way, it's about as likely as cutting a pack of cards and not getting a spade.0 -
I think Nick Palmer was correct. All on the ground political operators have their outlier sessions where a temporary reality meets expectation.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, in his initial post he stated that he stated/implied that Corbyn 'would do it' and predicted Con at 300 (later no more than 325). Nick Palmer thought that he'd just had a bad session but I know it left a few PB Tories on here quite shaken.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
That post did leave me thinking that something may up. But I am still thinking how can Corbyn win/Labour be the largest party in a hung parliament/Con minority with 65+ going so heavily for Con, Kippers going so heavily for Con, and inevitable losses in the Midlands and the North (like you say) for Labour?
However let's take Herder's Con 325 figure and briefly examine it. Take the Con base point and add a few not unreasonable gains in Scotalnd. So 335. This means in England and Wales Con will overall lose 10 seats. Does that seem in anyway a viable prospect.
No.0 -
I don't see why we should give any credit to pollsters for not herding. You Gov are a disgrace and should be banned from political polling in future.0
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The bigger worry for pollsters is that the one who is right is right by accident? For five years everyone will assume that their adjustments must be the *correct* ones to make, then next time things will turn out differently once again.0
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The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
That one always gets it wrong.JackW said:
Just one ....asjohnstone said:Are we still awaiting one more poll ?
UKGE .. Sampling 7am-10pm - Size 31,023,731 .. 0 -
Best of luck to Tissue Price and any other PB candidates0
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It could be anything from Cons on 315 to 400 for me. Why the spread? All depends on the late deciders, and waverers. The assumption is they'll all plump for May. But, what if they don't, and, "f*ck it, Corbyn it is", is the response?
We just don't know.
Lib Dems, I think, will do a little better than expected.
Also: word of warning. If seats are to be swinging wildly all over the place tonight, I'd expect the exit poll to perhaps be a little less accurate than usual, possibly with both Con/Lab seats predictions having an error of +/- 20 seats.
That's where Crosby/Messina (should) make the difference, on the Tory upside.0 -
+1, even if Labour really do surge in London (as I suspect they will) Croydon Central appears to be only seat they'll take off the Tories there.JackW said:
I think Nick Palmer was correct. All on the ground political operators have their outlier sessions where a temporary reality meets expectation.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, in his initial post he stated that he stated/implied that Corbyn 'would do it' and predicted Con at 300 (later no more than 325). Nick Palmer thought that he'd just had a bad session but I know it left a few PB Tories on here quite shaken.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
That post did leave me thinking that something may up. But I am still thinking how can Corbyn win/Labour be the largest party in a hung parliament/Con minority with 65+ going so heavily for Con, Kippers going so heavily for Con, and inevitable losses in the Midlands and the North (like you say) for Labour?
However let's take Herder's Con 325 figure and briefly examine it. Take the Con base point and add a few not unreasonable gains in Scotalnd. So 335. This means in England and Wales Con will overall lose 10 seats. Does that seem in anyway a viable prospect.
No.0 -
I would put May not living up to preconceptions, and trashing the strong and stable brand, above the content of the care policy per se. But there is no doubt that care has come up on some doorsteps.SquareRoot said:
Everyone has doubt until they know! If the Tories don't get across the line it will be a self inflicted chest wound. The announcement about Social care was madness.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
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In order to believe that there will be a Hung Parliament, you have to be credulous of the notion of the Conservatives making more losses than gains, which in turn is predicated upon one (or, more likely a combination of several) in a series of implausible scenarios:SquareRoot said:
Everyone has doubt until they know! If the Tories don't get across the line it will be a self inflicted chest wound. The announcement about Social care was madness.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
1. More (probably significantly more) 2015 voters will cross directly from Con to Lab than from Lab to Con
2. There will be an enormous spike in turnout amongst voters in the 18-30 age range, *and* virtually all of them will back Labour
3. Conversely, older voters will abstain in historically unprecedented numbers
4. Either Ukip will miraculously fail to collapse or, if it does, most of its ex-voters will back Labour rather than the Conservatives
5. Related to 4, there will be no differential swing across the country, merely a uniform surge in the Labour vote (and, by extension, the vast bulk of non-polling opinion such as from canvass returns and focus groups, which shows Labour struggling in most of England outside of inner London and a few other metropolitan cores, will be shown to be totally invalid.)
6. The remnants of the Liberal Democrat vote have, amazingly, become so powerfully concentrated geographically that they make a successful defence of all their Tory-facing seats, *and* recover a substantial fraction of their 2015 losses
It's the sort of thing that, if you really want to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power, your inner chimp might have a panic attack about. But logically, I don't see how there's any meaningful probability of a Hung Parliament coming to pass under today's circumstances. You might just as well worry about dying from being struck by a stray meteorite: this would both be theoretically possible and self-evidently a catastrophe, but how many of us stop to fret over it?0 -
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!0 -
The thing that might be up is regional and even local variation. The most obvious anomaly in the table in the header is SNP at 5% -- they are a damn sight higher than that in Scotland, and at zero elsewhere. Some of the regional breakdowns show Labour and Conservatives closer than in 2015 but of course within region, constituencies may not be homogeneous. I'm getting close to calling for marginals polling but Lord Ashcroft's results were highly misleading last time!The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, in his initial post he stated that he stated/implied that Corbyn 'would do it' and predicted Con at 300 (later no more than 325). Nick Palmer thought that he'd just had a bad session but I know it left a few PB Tories on here quite shaken.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
That post did leave me thinking that something may up. But I am still thinking how can Corbyn win/Labour be the largest party in a hung parliament/Con minority with 65+ going so heavily for Con, Kippers going so heavily for Con, and inevitable losses in the Midlands and the North (like you say) for Labour?
So we'll see what happens, but I'd be shocked if it isn't Con majority.0 -
Perhaps wait for the results first!tlg86 said:I don't see why we should give any credit to pollsters for not herding. You Gov are a disgrace and should be banned from political polling in future.
There does seem to be more agreement in the modellers:
Electoral Calculus Con 361
Britain ELects Con 357
Hanratty Con 3710 -
Before a single vote is cast can I ask for Theresa May's resignation.
She has managed to embarrass at least 60% of our finest pollsters0 -
As PB'ers have been saying all along, the key is the Tory vote share. The Survation type scenario only comes about if there are second thoughts amongst a reasonable number of Tories, sufficient to push their vote down from the ICM 45% to 40% or below. Non-voters turning out for Labour can't do this.The_Apocalypse said:
+1, even if Labour really do surge in London (as I suspect they will) Croydon Central appears to be only seat they'll take off the Tories there.JackW said:
I think Nick Palmer was correct. All on the ground political operators have their outlier sessions where a temporary reality meets expectation.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, in his initial post he stated that he stated/implied that Corbyn 'would do it' and predicted Con at 300 (later no more than 325). Nick Palmer thought that he'd just had a bad session but I know it left a few PB Tories on here quite shaken.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
That post did leave me thinking that something may up. But I am still thinking how can Corbyn win/Labour be the largest party in a hung parliament/Con minority with 65+ going so heavily for Con, Kippers going so heavily for Con, and inevitable losses in the Midlands and the North (like you say) for Labour?
However let's take Herder's Con 325 figure and briefly examine it. Take the Con base point and add a few not unreasonable gains in Scotalnd. So 335. This means in England and Wales Con will overall lose 10 seats. Does that seem in anyway a viable prospect.
No.
Although there are indeed plenty of reasons to be doubtful about the Tories, it is hard to see what would lead to last minute desertions by people who, if the polls are right, have been loyal so far? Concerns about Brexit haven't coloured the election at all, and the only last minute question is the police numbers debate, which I don't think has the traction.0 -
We fret because the thought of Corbyn as PM really would f the Country up good and proper.Black_Rook said:
In order to believe that there will be a Hung Parliament, you have to be credulous of the notion of the Conservatives making more losses than gains, which in turn is predicated upon one (or, more likely a combination of several) in a series of implausible scenarios:SquareRoot said:
Everyone has doubt until they know! If the Tories don't get across the line it will be a self inflicted chest wound. The announcement about Social care was madness.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
1. More (probably significantly more) 2015 voters will cross directly from Con to Lab than from Lab to Con
2. There will be an enormous spike in turnout amongst voters in the 18-30 age range, *and* virtually all of them will back Labour
3. Conversely, older voters will abstain in historically unprecedented numbers
4. Either Ukip will miraculously fail to collapse or, if it does, most of its ex-voters will back Labour rather than the Conservatives
5. Related to 4, there will be no differential swing across the country, merely a uniform surge in the Labour vote (and, by extension, the vast bulk of non-polling opinion such as from canvass returns and focus groups, which shows Labour struggling in most of England outside of inner London and a few other metropolitan cores, will be shown to be totally invalid.)
6. The remnants of the Liberal Democrat vote have, amazingly, become so powerfully concentrated geographically that they make a successful defence of all their Tory-facing seats, *and* recover a substantial fraction of their 2015 losses
It's the sort of thing that, if you really want to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power, your inner chimp might have a panic attack about. But logically, I don't see how there's any meaningful probability of a Hung Parliament coming to pass under today's circumstances. You might just as well worry about dying from being struck by a stray meteorite: this would both be theoretically possible and self-evidently a catastrophe, but how many of us stop to fret over it?
Oh and I worry about stray meteorites all the time but mainly when Horizon does a programme about the Kuiper belt!0 -
TSE always says not read too much into subsamples, that's why I've kind of ignored them. In terms of regional polling [not subsamples], I think we have only had London, Scotland and Wales in recent weeks.DecrepitJohnL said:
The thing that might be up is regional and even local variation. The most obvious anomaly in the table in the header is SNP at 5% -- they are a damn sight higher than that in Scotland, and at zero elsewhere. Some of the regional breakdowns show Labour and Conservatives closer than in 2015 but of course within region, constituencies may not be homogeneous. I'm getting close to calling for marginals polling but Lord Ashcroft's results were highly misleading last time!The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, in his initial post he stated that he stated/implied that Corbyn 'would do it' and predicted Con at 300 (later no more than 325). Nick Palmer thought that he'd just had a bad session but I know it left a few PB Tories on here quite shaken.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
That post did leave me thinking that something may up. But I am still thinking how can Corbyn win/Labour be the largest party in a hung parliament/Con minority with 65+ going so heavily for Con, Kippers going so heavily for Con, and inevitable losses in the Midlands and the North (like you say) for Labour?
So we'll see what happens, but I'd be shocked if it isn't Con majority.
I remember how Ashcroft's marginal polls were so disastrously wrong last time - that's why I'm not rushing to hold up his forecast as the total gospel.
The irony is, is that YouGov's polling model is probably the future of the polling industry, but they've made themselves look so silly in this GE no matter the result, especially with that methodology change last night!0 -
+1Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Best of luck to Tissue Price and any other PB candidates
0 -
Remember that this is a table of GB-wide final polls. In 2015, the SNP won 4.9% of the GB total, so polls predicting 4% or 5% are wholly consistent with a continuing trend of SNP strength.DecrepitJohnL said:snip
The thing that might be up is regional and even local variation. The most obvious anomaly in the table in the header is SNP at 5% -- they are a damn sight higher than that in Scotland, and at zero elsewhere.0 -
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
0 -
Yesterday I posted that I thought Survation would wimp out by showing an increased Tory lead but that Yougov would stick to their guns. I was completely wrong and it was the other way around. As TSE says, well done to those who had the courage of their convictions and were willing to trust the data that they had. As for Yougov, well the reputational damage of this campaign is already built in whatever the result.
I think the chances of a Tory lead of 10+ tonight are good. That is only a modest swing from 2015 but the same trends we saw then (Labour doing well in the larger cities, not so much elsewhere) seem exacerbated this time and that may well cost them.
0 -
Certainly the most exciting moment of the election so far.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
The more interesting stuff begins on 9th June. This election has seen perceptions of May change markedly. That will have longer term consequences, both here in the UK and for the Brexit negotiations.
In years to come people will be asking
"Where were you when you first read David's post......"0 -
SquareRoot said:
Oh and I worry about stray meteorites all the time but mainly when Horizon does a programme about the Kuiper belt!
0 -
Well, it all rather depends on how politically engaged younger voters as a whole are feeling this time around.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
As a rough estimate, if an extra million younger people turnout at this time *and* they all voted Labour, it would be worth about a 3% boost to Labour's final share. Clearly the fewer additional youngsters bother, and the more of them vote Conservative (NB another possible source of Shy Tories - for how many young people would voting Conservative be a source of social shame and/or abuse?), the more marginal the effect becomes.0 -
Totally O/t, but something for my home town to be proud of. Just for once!
Quote from the BBC. ‘Several pupils from a school in Canvey Island have scored highly in a Mensa Genius Test.”
In the high 150’s; one at least 160 plus.0 -
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
0 -
I sympathise. With the Corbyn bit, not the stray meteorite bit.SquareRoot said:
We fret because the thought of Corbyn as PM really would f the Country up good and proper.Black_Rook said:
In order to believe that there will be a Hung Parliament, you have to be credulous of the notion of the Conservatives making more losses than gains, which in turn is predicated upon one (or, more likely a combination of several) in a series of implausible scenarios:SquareRoot said:
Everyone has doubt until they know! If the Tories don't get across the line it will be a self inflicted chest wound. The announcement about Social care was madness.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
1. More (probably significantly more) 2015 voters will cross directly from Con to Lab than from Lab to Con
2. There will be an enormous spike in turnout amongst voters in the 18-30 age range, *and* virtually all of them will back Labour
3. Conversely, older voters will abstain in historically unprecedented numbers
4. Either Ukip will miraculously fail to collapse or, if it does, most of its ex-voters will back Labour rather than the Conservatives
5. Related to 4, there will be no differential swing across the country, merely a uniform surge in the Labour vote (and, by extension, the vast bulk of non-polling opinion such as from canvass returns and focus groups, which shows Labour struggling in most of England outside of inner London and a few other metropolitan cores, will be shown to be totally invalid.)
6. The remnants of the Liberal Democrat vote have, amazingly, become so powerfully concentrated geographically that they make a successful defence of all their Tory-facing seats, *and* recover a substantial fraction of their 2015 losses
It's the sort of thing that, if you really want to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power, your inner chimp might have a panic attack about. But logically, I don't see how there's any meaningful probability of a Hung Parliament coming to pass under today's circumstances. You might just as well worry about dying from being struck by a stray meteorite: this would both be theoretically possible and self-evidently a catastrophe, but how many of us stop to fret over it?
Oh and I worry about stray meteorites all the time but mainly when Horizon does a programme about the Kuiper belt!
Keeping my inner Labour Government catastrophe chimp under control for these last several weeks has been rather difficult. The end of this campaign, provided that it results in any kind of working Conservative majority, will be an enormous relief.0 -
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!0 -
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.0 -
It was reported that Messina was surprised by the high number of don't knows. It may not be necessary to posit large numbers of defections (or changes of mind) from Tory to Labour, or any at all. It might be the DKs making up their minds -- provided they all lean the same way.IanB2 said:
As PB'ers have been saying all along, the key is the Tory vote share. The Survation type scenario only comes about if there are second thoughts amongst a reasonable number of Tories, sufficient to push their vote down from the ICM 45% to 40% or below. Non-voters turning out for Labour can't do this.
Although there are indeed plenty of reasons to be doubtful about the Tories, it is hard to see what would lead to last minute desertions by people who, if the polls are right, have been loyal so far? Concerns about Brexit haven't coloured the election at all, and the only last minute question is the police numbers debate, which I don't think has the traction.
0 -
Might as well trot out my old prediction again, before I clear off to work:
Con 387
Lab 178
SNP 48
LD 13
PC 4
Green 1
plus Mr Speaker and the NI contingent.
Back this evening at some point...0 -
The interesting stuff begins for Labour too: what to do about the unlikely hero, Jeremy Corbyn?SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
The more interesting stuff begins on 9th June. This election has seen perceptions of May change markedly. That will have longer term consequences, both here in the UK and for the Brexit negotiations.0 -
Free tuition fees is a big draw for the university types or those going. It'll make a difference but not enough. Part of the reason Labour might do better than they ought is that they have offered an array of freebies that are madness in terms of who is going to pay. Voters don't care if others suffer so long as they get their freebies/Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!0 -
Quite a hammering of the Scots Nats...Lib Dems doing well too!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats0 -
+1 on May. As if Brexit wasn't enough of a gamble already.JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
For Labour it's a classic impasse. Corbyn the campaigner has been vindicated on the campaign trail, saving them from utter disaster, with Corbyn's radicalism making him the 'change' candidate in a way that Owen Smith would never have achieved. Yet his detractors will argue that Labour wouldn't have started so low in the polls without him, will see Labour losing seats in opposition as obvious bad rather than good news, and wonder whether under someone else the arrogant complacent shambles that has been May's campaign might have been beaten?0 -
Why? It would be nice to see A.Carmichael and T.Farron decapitated (in a political sense) too.IanB2 said:
Poor Caroline.rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats0 -
Labour's position is interesting. Corbyn has had a good campaign. The baggage is now out there and fully factored in. If both sides in the Labour dispute learn the right lessons, there is a way forward. What is clear is that tomorrow it can retreat into relative obscurity. That gives the party time to think. It should take it. From 9th June it's all about Brexit and the deal the Tories can or can't get.JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
0 -
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/8720179475853803520 -
Yes, absent a disaster he's now very much master of his own fate. Wonder how the heavy hitters sulking on the back benches will respond?JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
0 -
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.0 -
The regional swings from Com Res didn't really show that, the swing in the east and west midlands was modest albeit it is of course being added to quite strong swings in those areas in 2015. The North east was much stronger but I am not sure how many winnable seats there are there. Bit like the fairly strong swing to Labour in the south. Won't do them much good either.SouthamObserver said:
I did not see the infamous David Herdson post last night, but gather he was saying that the Labour surge may actually be real. I think David will be slightly embarrassed by that this time tomorrow - but that he will not care because the Tories will have secured a huge majority, probably in excess of 100. I know I keep saying it, but the Midlands and the North outside of the Manchester/Merseyside corridor are going to be a bloodbath for Labour. Any rise in vote share for the party will happen in places where it doesn't matter.The_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
The more interesting stuff begins on 9th June. This election has seen perceptions of May change markedly. That will have longer term consequences, both here in the UK and for the Brexit negotiations.0 -
So who's taking Brighton P?rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats0 -
Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352
My daughter assures me that this has been a big meme amongst her age group and a source of considerable amusement.Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/8720179475853803520 -
Yes, many young people really do feel that the cards have been stacked against them. The worrying aspect is the emerging massive age-related divide in this election, and May's demonstrated incompetence does little to ressure that she can or will deliver any significant change to level the playing field, whatever she may have said on arriving at Downing Street. Those words will disappear into history along with the peace and harmony that Mrs T promised to deliver.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.0 -
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
0 -
ELBOW for week up to 8th June (Ipsos MORI still to come of course)
Con 43.00
Lab 36.50
LD 7.60
UKIP 4.30
Tory Lead 6.50
0 -
I agree it will definitely help. I just cannot foresee an increase on the 63% in the EU ref, particularly given most youngsters were on the losing side and it was a ref where every vote counted equally. There will always be a huge chunk of the youth who remain unengaged and the youth can be more socially Conservative than people think - many 18-24s, particularly men will pick up on Corbyn's lack of patriotism and are far more likely to pick up on what they hear from parents/grandparents than the more rebellious, engaged University activists who will have been in the Labour camp in 2015 anyway.SquareRoot said:
Free tuition fees is a big draw for the university types or those going. It'll make a difference but not enough. Part of the reason Labour might do better than they ought is that they have offered an array of freebies that are madness in terms of who is going to pay. Voters don't care if others suffer so long as they get their freebies/Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
For me this youth increase is mostly noise created by those who voted in 2015 and those 14-17 year olds who cannot vote. 18-24 WON'T top 60%, I just don't see any evidence that it is engaging the youth as much as the EU ref beyond a couple of very questionable polls.
0 -
I was the 7th person in the queue when I got to the polling station at 7.02am, it didn't open until 7.04.
Never seen that before, but then again I've never voted at this polling station so early.0 -
Mrs Fox off to work, voting on the way.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Still undecided between Lab and LD. Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.0 -
With a sample like that it should be definitive.JackW said:
Just one ....asjohnstone said:Are we still awaiting one more poll ?
UKGE .. Sampling 7am-10pm - Size 31,023,731 ..0 -
Opening four minutes late is poor. Are things really that slack your way?ThreeQuidder said:I was the 7th person in the queue when I got to the polling station at 7.02am, it didn't open until 7.04.
Never seen that before, but then again I've never voted at this polling station so early.0 -
+2JackW said:
+1Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Best of luck to Tissue Price and any other PB candidates
What ever your political persuasion good luck (even if I may wish a miserable fate on your national party!)
Polling stations have opened.0 -
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.0 -
The bias simply transfers from the sample to the system.DavidL said:
With a sample like that it should be definitive.JackW said:
Just one ....asjohnstone said:Are we still awaiting one more poll ?
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+1.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.0 -
One of my last election acts was trying to convince my Algerian Uber driver taking me to the polling station (to tell) to switch from Lab to Con.0
