Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there. What a stunning pearl of wisdom. A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.
I actually can't remember who I voted for in 2001, it was just as I was leaving UNI, so likely to be one of the Bristol Seats. It might have been lib dem, or even labour...
2005; Wells-Tory 2010: Wells-Tory 2015:East Hampshire-Tory 2017: Surrey Heath- voting for the Gove....
Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!
Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!
Lol. It's only an attractive proposition if you both live in marginals.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
Yes, he has, Mr Mark. There is a video to prove it too....
Im sorry, I'm still half asleep, am I reading this headline from the local press right? Even referring on,y to the local circulation area it makes no sense.
1997 Durham City (?) - weigh the Labour vote 2001 Tower Hamlets - weigh the Labour vote, halve it to keep turnout below 100% 2005, 2010 Two Cities - glance at pile of votes, everyone agrees they're Tory 2015, 2017 St Ives - genuine blue/yellow marginal
Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there. What a stunning pearl of wisdom. A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.
Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.
I would be surprised if many have gone astray (on the outward) in the UK, as most councils posted them out very early
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
Yes, he has, Mr Mark. There is a video to prove it too....
1987 - Newark - Richard Alexander 1992 - Newark - Richard Alexander 1997 - Newark - Richard Alexander 2001 - Newark - Patrick Mercer 2005 - Newark - Charlotte Creasy 2010 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Roger Doughty 2015 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Steven Hopkins 2016 - Sleaford & N Hykeham (By-Election) - Caroline Johnson 2017 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Caroline Johnson
Mine is 1997 Tory in Lewisham West, 2001 Ed Matts in OxWAb- oh dear! , 2005 Tory in OxWAb, 2010 Nicola Blackwood in OxWAb, 2015 UKIP in Romsey and Southampton N, 2017 Don Gerrard in Romsey and Southampton N. Brisk turnout so far at the polling station I just voted at.
Im sorry, I'm still half asleep, am I reading this headline from the local press right? Even referring on,y to the local circulation area it makes no sense.
Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!
Don't take a picture (and certainly don't post it anywhere). It is actually quite a serious offence
Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore
Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :
"I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :
Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody) Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201
I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.
'My worry is that Lab pick up 20 seats in Scotland thus giving them the edge nationally.'
In Tory support terms it is irrelevant because the SNP will almost always vote against the Tories in Westminster just to be destructive (e.g. shopping hours). But it is more likely to keep Corbyn as leader which must be better for the Tories than a fresh face in 2022.
Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there. What a stunning pearl of wisdom. A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
He did. Uniquely among party leaders visiting Cornwall (IIRC jezza hasn't been) he even risked taking questions from real people (*mayesque shudder*)
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
A few candid comments before I head off for my duties.
- I'm not bothering in go to Nottingham South (was a Tory target), let alone Nottingham North, as I believe they're both safe. I'm uneasy about Gedling, but I can do more good in Broxtowe as a known face - I'll be based in WWC Kimberley and the surrounding commuterland all day.
- ICM's assumptions seem to me too bold, Survation's too nonchalant. I feel pretty sure the result will be in between.
- Class is now dead as a significant factor, see HYUFD's stats.
- I do think the "Enough is Enough" comment cut through and has helped steady the Tories, and it may even have started a little swingback in the last days.
- The Tories appear to have neglected their vulnerable seats and gone all out for attack. I only know Broxtowe well: they have had just two leaflets throughout the campaign, both low key, and Soubry has been out with tiny canvass groups. I expect Labour's result there to be better than the national swing (our effort there has been huge) - if Survation is right, Broxtowe will fall.
- Although suspicious of subsamples, there seems lots of evidence of big regional variance. I think Scotland may well be the biggest.
Best guess: Labour over 200 but Tory majority of 80 thanks partly to Scottish advances.
Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.
I would be surprised if many have gone astray (on the outward) in the UK, as most councils posted them out very early
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
He did. Uniquely among party leaders visiting Cornwall (IIRC jezza hasn't been) he even risked taking questions from real people (*mayesque shudder*)
So not in the past month then. We were told Cornwall had been abandoned by the LibDems. As have Devon and Somerset it seems, if Farron hasn't been seen down here for four weeks....
My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
What's a vote-swap vote?
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
But how does he get two votes?
He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
These anecdotes about new voters for Corbyn should not be necessarily concerning for the Tories.
The 2015 baseline for Labour is a little over 30%. All the polls have Labour increasing that, by an average of around 5-6%. This translates to probably well over a million voters, and not far off a couple of thousand per constituency on average. So hearing of newly enthused voters, young or otherwise, is exactly what we'd expect surely, from a statistical viewpoint.
But the tories look to have found even more voters, around an extra 7% on average.
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?
Also: word of warning. If seats are to be swinging wildly all over the place tonight, I'd expect the exit poll to perhaps be a little less accurate than usual, possibly with both Con/Lab seats predictions having an error of +/- 20 seats.
That is the usual margin of error for the exit poll, I seem to remember from last time.
The errors in the exit poll last time were:
Con -14 Lab +7 LD +2 SNP +2 PC +1 UKIP +1 Greens +1
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
The idea that labour has a built in advantage in the map is historical. With the loss of Scotland it no longer holds.
Milliband put 3% on Browns 2010 total and lost seats. Corbyn could easily put another 4% on and lose more seats.
My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
What's a vote-swap vote?
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
But how does he get two votes?
He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.
Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.
My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
What's a vote-swap vote?
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
But how does he get two votes?
He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
Its that 'vote swap' website. You contract with another person in a more winnable seat to both swap your own votes, in your own seats, tactically.
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
Large GOTV operation for Labour in Dulwich and West Norwood this morning. I guess there are so many Momentum boots on the ground in London that they can do this. The seat is pretty safe.
Im sorry, I'm still half asleep, am I reading this headline from the local press right? Even referring on,y to the local circulation area it makes no sense.
Bizarre. It says it is done by Google Surveys, and it only now occurs to me that it was only a matter of time before Google moved into and dominated political polling. And it says 26:34 (published yesterday) Con:Lab as against 31:25 when GE called. "The South West" isn't defined. It is part of "a nationwide poll".
Edit: Surrey local news has the same survey and figures 27:32 vs 31:25, so crossover again
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?
I like coalition. Although I'm actually up for a variety of options rather than pure PR in truth.
Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.
I would be surprised if many have gone astray (on the outward) in the UK, as most councils posted them out very early
Ours were posted on 19/5
Exactly.
Spanish inward quality of service is somewhat different from intra-UK
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is
Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?
That's the bear-trap inherent in the question. It's far too difficult to do anything these days without falling foul of some law or another. And then she'd be hung out to dry for a 'funny anecdote'.
I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.
On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
'My worry is that Lab pick up 20 seats in Scotland thus giving them the edge nationally.'
In Tory support terms it is irrelevant because the SNP will almost always vote against the Tories in Westminster just to be destructive (e.g. shopping hours). But it is more likely to keep Corbyn as leader which must be better for the Tories than a fresh face in 2022.
My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
What's a vote-swap vote?
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
But how does he get two votes?
He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.
Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.
OK I think I'm there, I assumed (wrongly) he was voting lib in Bedford.
Just begun listening to the podcast, and agree entirely with Mr. Eagles that the Conservative campaign has been far too soft on Corbyn.
Rubbish. The more they banged on about Corbyn the worse things got for them. People expect a government about to take office to have something to say on its own account.
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.
St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.
According to the PA list, St Ives is due to declare at 7am, so not a Friday afternoon count.
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is
Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?
That's the bear-trap inherent in the question. It's far too difficult to do anything these days without falling foul of some law or another. And then she'd be hung out to dry for a 'funny anecdote'.
I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.
On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.
If you think running around in standing wheat is a trivial offence, go and do it under the eye of the farmer whose wheat it is. It's equivalent to going into a shop with a hammer and a knife and destroying all the stock.
By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
On the naughty question, all May had to say was 'i couldn't possibly tell you that ' and if pushed say 'it involved an industrial pot of Swafega, a brass band and first edition Agatha Christie '
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.
but the whole point was about whether or not labour do have a bigger advantage over their rival, and thus whether the changes redress that advantage fairly or not. Not whether fptp inherently advantages whoever tops the poll.
A few candid comments before I head off for my duties.
- I'm not bothering in go to Nottingham South (was a Tory target), let alone Nottingham North, as I believe they're both safe. I'm uneasy about Gedling, but I can do more good in Broxtowe as a known face - I'll be based in WWC Kimberley and the surrounding commuterland all day.
- ICM's assumptions seem to me too bold, Survation's too nonchalant. I feel pretty sure the result will be in between.
- Class is now dead as a significant factor, see HYUFD's stats.
- I do think the "Enough is Enough" comment cut through and has helped steady the Tories, and it may even have started a little swingback in the last days.
- The Tories appear to have neglected their vulnerable seats and gone all out for attack. I only know Broxtowe well: they have had just two leaflets throughout the campaign, both low key, and Soubry has been out with tiny canvass groups. I expect Labour's result there to be better than the national swing (our effort there has been huge) - if Survation is right, Broxtowe will fall.
- Although suspicious of subsamples, there seems lots of evidence of big regional variance. I think Scotland may well be the biggest.
Best guess: Labour over 200 but Tory majority of 80 thanks partly to Scottish advances.
If Tories are not putting that much effort into Broxtowe they must think it's a HOLD and are concentrating on other more marginal seats. Prehaps Gedling. Hmmm
Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!
Don't take a picture (and certainly don't post it anywhere). It is actually quite a serious offence
Voting was definitely 'brisk' in Leeds city centre this morning. Around 10 people queueing at 7:20. Chap at the door said it is always busy - claimed that the queue sometimes reaches as far back as the station, but I think that might have been a bit of an exaggeration.
Anyway, the latte-sipping urbanites of West Yorkshire are heading to the polls.
Meanwhile, by 8:40, voting could be described as 'steady' at the primary school near my work in Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford. One chap arrived in a white van, so a possible vote for The Yorkshire Party?
Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore
Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :
"I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :
Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody) Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201
I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.
Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore
Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :
"I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :
Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody) Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201
I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.
A handsome victory for Mrs W, Jack, against all the odds. Congratulations to her. I had the Liberals as favourites in the seat, which shows what I know.
I can't change mine. I'm stuck with this horrible yellow and green thing. Before you ask, yes, I have changed my username again – this is because bobajobPB has been unable to post since the weekend, for no good reason at all. Vanilla is just weird.
By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
It's because for most people this is the dullest election in living memory. No-one sensible wants Corbyn to win.
By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?
What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?
Bucketing down in Devon, forecast to clear at lunchtime.
By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?
The weather on 23 June last year was awful. Didn't stop 72% voting.
St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.
According to the PA list, St Ives is due to declare at 7am, so not a Friday afternoon count.
No chance, with ballot boxes scattered across the Scillies to gather in and then the trip to Penzance (by boat probably), on a typically wet blustery day I cannot see the ballots even being on the mainland before 7am, not before 1300 my prediction,
Mr. Rentool, news last night had some ex-coal miners (now working in mining museum) who were clearly full of loathing for Corbyn but didn't like May either. One of them said he'd be voting for the Yorkshire Party.
By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
It's because for most people this is the dullest election in living memory. No-one sensible wants Corbyn to win.
The Tories will win a landslide on a low turnout.
That is so right, to me its like an election has not really been taking place, if I didn't spend time on this website then I would not be thinking about it. At work no one has talked about it.
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.
but the whole point was about whether or not labour do have a bigger advantage over their rival, and thus whether the changes redress that advantage fairly or not. Not whether fptp inherently advantages whoever tops the poll.
Given the vagaries of the system and the varied distribution of votes, there is never going to be a time when one major party doesn't have a relative advantage over the other.
If Tories are not putting that much effort into Broxtowe they must think it's a HOLD and are concentrating on other more marginal seats. Prehaps Gedling. Hmmm
Yes, they've been open about it - Nottingham S, Gedling and even Nottingham N have had lots of Tory attention, Broxtowe not. I speculate that this is a general pattern which they may live to regret IF the Survation end of the scale is correct.
Comments
What a stunning pearl of wisdom.
A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.
2005; Wells-Tory
2010: Wells-Tory
2015:East Hampshire-Tory
2017: Surrey Heath- voting for the Gove....
Good morning. Happy voting.
No predictions here, as I'm genuinely confused and haven't paid enough attention.
However, I'll be up late tonight and will doubtless enjoy the twists and turns as much as I did in 2015.
Good luck to all the candidates and activists today; some of my family have been out campaigning hard for Jo Stevens and I know how hard it is.
Surprised myself to back Labour under Corbyn. Ask me six months ago and I would have said no.
Still have doubts about him and some in Corbyn's team, but in the end May was the greatest risk.
Her narrow approach to Brexit is wrong and her campaign demonstrated that she lacks the ability to get a good result.
As such I, my family and the country are better off without her.
http://www.wiltshiretimes.co.uk/news/15333729.Labour_may_overtake_Tories_in_west__poll_finds/
1997 Durham City (?) - weigh the Labour vote
2001 Tower Hamlets - weigh the Labour vote, halve it to keep turnout below 100%
2005, 2010 Two Cities - glance at pile of votes, everyone agrees they're Tory
2015, 2017 St Ives - genuine blue/yellow marginal
Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :
"I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :
Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes
Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody)
Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes
Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201
I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.
1997 - Northavon
2001 - Exeter
2005 - S W Surrey
2010 - Reading E
2015. - Wantage
2017 - Maidenhead
'My worry is that Lab pick up 20 seats in Scotland thus giving them the edge nationally.'
In Tory support terms it is irrelevant because the SNP will almost always vote against the Tories in Westminster just to be destructive (e.g. shopping hours). But it is more likely to keep Corbyn as leader which must be better for the Tories than a fresh face in 2022.
http://m.cornwalllive.com/cornwall-live-liberal-democrat-leader-tim-farron-quizzed-at-penwith-college-in-penzance/story-30322266-detail/story.html
- I'm not bothering in go to Nottingham South (was a Tory target), let alone Nottingham North, as I believe they're both safe. I'm uneasy about Gedling, but I can do more good in Broxtowe as a known face - I'll be based in WWC Kimberley and the surrounding commuterland all day.
- ICM's assumptions seem to me too bold, Survation's too nonchalant. I feel pretty sure the result will be in between.
- Class is now dead as a significant factor, see HYUFD's stats.
- I do think the "Enough is Enough" comment cut through and has helped steady the Tories, and it may even have started a little swingback in the last days.
- The Tories appear to have neglected their vulnerable seats and gone all out for attack. I only know Broxtowe well: they have had just two leaflets throughout the campaign, both low key, and Soubry has been out with tiny canvass groups. I expect Labour's result there to be better than the national swing (our effort there has been huge) - if Survation is right, Broxtowe will fall.
- Although suspicious of subsamples, there seems lots of evidence of big regional variance. I think Scotland may well be the biggest.
Best guess: Labour over 200 but Tory majority of 80 thanks partly to Scottish advances.
1997 - Broxbourne - Tory
2001 - Aylesbury - Lib Dem
2005 - Beds South West - Tory
2010 - Buckingham - Speaker
2015 - Ditto
2017 - Ditto
The 2015 baseline for Labour is a little over 30%. All the polls have Labour increasing that, by an average of around 5-6%. This translates to probably well over a million voters, and not far off a couple of thousand per constituency on average. So hearing of newly enthused voters, young or otherwise, is exactly what we'd expect surely, from a statistical viewpoint.
But the tories look to have found even more voters, around an extra 7% on average.
Hope this allays some of the damp sheets risk...
Con -14
Lab +7
LD +2
SNP +2
PC +1
UKIP +1
Greens +1
QED
Milliband put 3% on Browns 2010 total and lost seats. Corbyn could easily put another 4% on and lose more seats.
The case for voting reform is unanswerable
Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.
Edit: Surrey local news has the same survey and figures 27:32 vs 31:25, so crossover again
http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/general-election-polls-survey-finds-13146320
Edited extra bit: £1 stake only.
Edited extra bit 2: quite tempted, but the sign-up page isn't, apparently, fully secure. So decided against it.
Spanish inward quality of service is somewhat different from intra-UK
I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.
On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.
Still very odd
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_name.php
(FPTP Is Crap But Will Not Be Changed)
Voting was definitely 'brisk' in Leeds city centre this morning. Around 10 people queueing at 7:20. Chap at the door said it is always busy - claimed that the queue sometimes reaches as far back as the station, but I think that might have been a bit of an exaggeration.
Anyway, the latte-sipping urbanites of West Yorkshire are heading to the polls.
Meanwhile, by 8:40, voting could be described as 'steady' at the primary school near my work in Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford. One chap arrived in a white van, so a possible vote for The Yorkshire Party?
Long wait until 10pm now.
I can't change mine. I'm stuck with this horrible yellow and green thing. Before you ask, yes, I have changed my username again – this is because bobajobPB has been unable to post since the weekend, for no good reason at all. Vanilla is just weird.
The Tories will win a landslide on a low turnout.
Scotland politics has thrived without it.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
Humbug to that!
Anyway, election work to do, have fun everyone.