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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017

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  • Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there.
    What a stunning pearl of wisdom.
    A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    kle4 said:

    I'm looking toward to changing my avatar back tomorrow - I keep seeing it and thinking it's Someone else.

    It's a keeper! There's no going back
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    I actually can't remember who I voted for in 2001, it was just as I was leaving UNI, so likely to be one of the Bristol Seats. It might have been lib dem, or even labour...

    2005; Wells-Tory
    2010: Wells-Tory
    2015:East Hampshire-Tory
    2017: Surrey Heath- voting for the Gove....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunu said:

    Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!

    It's a bit late to arrange this isn't it!

    Good morning. Happy voting.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    nunu said:

    Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!

    Lol. It's only an attractive proposition if you both live in marginals.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Polruan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.

    Con 42%, 370 seats
    Lab 34%, 203 seats
    SNP 4%, 42 seats
    LD 11%, 12 seats
    UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
    Green 2%, 0 seats
    PC, 3 seats


    And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
    Not true.

    I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.

    Here's my list:

    Twickenham
    One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)

    O&S
    Edinburgh West
    Fife NE
    East Dunbartonshire

    Ceredgion

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    North Norfolk
    Sheffield Hallam

    Plus two from my possible list:
    Argyll & Bute
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
    St Ives
    Bath
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Lewes
    OxWAb
    St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
    But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    I like my new profile picture.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good morning all.

    No predictions here, as I'm genuinely confused and haven't paid enough attention.

    However, I'll be up late tonight and will doubtless enjoy the twists and turns as much as I did in 2015.

    Good luck to all the candidates and activists today; some of my family have been out campaigning hard for Jo Stevens and I know how hard it is.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Charles said:

    Freggles said:

    YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is
    Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?
    It's the cover up that gets you.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Polruan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.

    Con 42%, 370 seats
    Lab 34%, 203 seats
    SNP 4%, 42 seats
    LD 11%, 12 seats
    UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
    Green 2%, 0 seats
    PC, 3 seats


    And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
    Not true.

    I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.

    Here's my list:

    Twickenham
    One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)

    O&S
    Edinburgh West
    Fife NE
    East Dunbartonshire

    Ceredgion

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    North Norfolk
    Sheffield Hallam

    Plus two from my possible list:
    Argyll & Bute
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
    St Ives
    Bath
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Lewes
    OxWAb
    St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
    But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
    Yes, he has, Mr Mark. There is a video to prove it too....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Voted Labour.

    Surprised myself to back Labour under Corbyn. Ask me six months ago and I would have said no.

    Still have doubts about him and some in Corbyn's team, but in the end May was the greatest risk.

    Her narrow approach to Brexit is wrong and her campaign demonstrated that she lacks the ability to get a good result.

    As such I, my family and the country are better off without her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Im sorry, I'm still half asleep, am I reading this headline from the local press right? Even referring on,y to the local circulation area it makes no sense.

    http://www.wiltshiretimes.co.uk/news/15333729.Labour_may_overtake_Tories_in_west__poll_finds/
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    My depressing voting history

    1997 Durham City (?) - weigh the Labour vote
    2001 Tower Hamlets - weigh the Labour vote, halve it to keep turnout below 100%
    2005, 2010 Two Cities - glance at pile of votes, everyone agrees they're Tory
    2015, 2017 St Ives - genuine blue/yellow marginal

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there.
    What a stunning pearl of wisdom.
    A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.

    You mean he doesn't like him?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    nichomar said:

    Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.

    I would be surprised if many have gone astray (on the outward) in the UK, as most councils posted them out very early
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    PClipp said:

    Polruan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.

    Con 42%, 370 seats
    Lab 34%, 203 seats
    SNP 4%, 42 seats
    LD 11%, 12 seats
    UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
    Green 2%, 0 seats
    PC, 3 seats


    And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
    Not true.

    I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.

    Here's my list:

    Twickenham
    One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)

    O&S
    Edinburgh West
    Fife NE
    East Dunbartonshire

    Ceredgion

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    North Norfolk
    Sheffield Hallam

    Plus two from my possible list:
    Argyll & Bute
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
    St Ives
    Bath
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Lewes
    OxWAb
    St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
    But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
    Yes, he has, Mr Mark. There is a video to prove it too....
    OK, but not in the last four weeks?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?

    Not really, it's just the size.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Slow start in Barnes. First hour well down on first hour in 2015.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    nunu said:

    Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

    which is the red seat south of glasgow?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    My vote history is very boring

    1987 - Newark - Richard Alexander
    1992 - Newark - Richard Alexander
    1997 - Newark - Richard Alexander
    2001 - Newark - Patrick Mercer
    2005 - Newark - Charlotte Creasy
    2010 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Roger Doughty
    2015 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Steven Hopkins
    2016 - Sleaford & N Hykeham (By-Election) - Caroline Johnson
    2017 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Caroline Johnson

    Mine is 1997 Tory in Lewisham West, 2001 Ed Matts in OxWAb- oh dear! , 2005 Tory in OxWAb, 2010 Nicola Blackwood in OxWAb, 2015 UKIP in Romsey and Southampton N, 2017 Don Gerrard in Romsey and Southampton N. Brisk turnout so far at the polling station I just voted at.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    kle4 said:

    Im sorry, I'm still half asleep, am I reading this headline from the local press right? Even referring on,y to the local circulation area it makes no sense.

    http://www.wiltshiretimes.co.uk/news/15333729.Labour_may_overtake_Tories_in_west__poll_finds/

    Poll carried out by Google Surveys in association with Newquest, Johnston Press and Trinity Mirror
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Charles said:

    Freggles said:

    YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is
    Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?
    Was she the one responsible for crop circles?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    nunu said:

    Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!

    Don't take a picture (and certainly don't post it anywhere). It is actually quite a serious offence
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore

    Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :

    "I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :

    Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes
    Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody)
    Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes
    Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201

    I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.
  • On seats voted in this will be my 6th election and 6th different seat:

    1997 - Northavon
    2001 - Exeter
    2005 - S W Surrey
    2010 - Reading E
    2015. - Wantage
    2017 - Maidenhead
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192

    nunu said:

    Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

    which is the red seat south of glasgow?
    Jim Murphy's old Eastwood seat. Renfrewshire South?
  • hardpawnhardpawn Posts: 8
    Topping said:

    'My worry is that Lab pick up 20 seats in Scotland thus giving them the edge nationally.'

    In Tory support terms it is irrelevant because the SNP will almost always vote against the Tories in Westminster just to be destructive (e.g. shopping hours). But it is more likely to keep Corbyn as leader which must be better for the Tories than a fresh face in 2022.
  • Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there.
    What a stunning pearl of wisdom.
    A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.

    You mean he doesn't like him?
    To put it mildly, yes.


  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.

    Con 42%, 370 seats
    Lab 34%, 203 seats
    SNP 4%, 42 seats
    LD 11%, 12 seats
    UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
    Green 2%, 0 seats
    PC, 3 seats


    And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
    Not true.

    I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.

    Here's my list:

    Twickenham
    One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)

    O&S
    Edinburgh West
    Fife NE
    East Dunbartonshire

    Ceredgion

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    North Norfolk
    Sheffield Hallam

    Plus two from my possible list:
    Argyll & Bute
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
    St Ives
    Bath
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Lewes
    OxWAb
    St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
    But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
    He did. Uniquely among party leaders visiting Cornwall (IIRC jezza hasn't been) he even risked taking questions from real people (*mayesque shudder*)

    http://m.cornwalllive.com/cornwall-live-liberal-democrat-leader-tim-farron-quizzed-at-penwith-college-in-penzance/story-30322266-detail/story.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    nunu said:

    Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

    which is the red seat south of glasgow?
    East Renfrewshire
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    A few candid comments before I head off for my duties.

    - I'm not bothering in go to Nottingham South (was a Tory target), let alone Nottingham North, as I believe they're both safe. I'm uneasy about Gedling, but I can do more good in Broxtowe as a known face - I'll be based in WWC Kimberley and the surrounding commuterland all day.

    - ICM's assumptions seem to me too bold, Survation's too nonchalant. I feel pretty sure the result will be in between.

    - Class is now dead as a significant factor, see HYUFD's stats.

    - I do think the "Enough is Enough" comment cut through and has helped steady the Tories, and it may even have started a little swingback in the last days.

    - The Tories appear to have neglected their vulnerable seats and gone all out for attack. I only know Broxtowe well: they have had just two leaflets throughout the campaign, both low key, and Soubry has been out with tiny canvass groups. I expect Labour's result there to be better than the national swing (our effort there has been huge) - if Survation is right, Broxtowe will fall.

    - Although suspicious of subsamples, there seems lots of evidence of big regional variance. I think Scotland may well be the biggest.

    Best guess: Labour over 200 but Tory majority of 80 thanks partly to Scottish advances.



  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    1992 - Broxbourne - Tory
    1997 - Broxbourne - Tory
    2001 - Aylesbury - Lib Dem
    2005 - Beds South West - Tory
    2010 - Buckingham - Speaker
    2015 - Ditto
    2017 - Ditto
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.

    I would be surprised if many have gone astray (on the outward) in the UK, as most councils posted them out very early
    Ours were posted on 19/5
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I like my new profile picture.

    Very bold. I'm not sure it's a good idea to have people using pictures of real-life superheros. It might create confusion or embarrassment.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

    which is the red seat south of glasgow?
    East Renfrewshire
    thanks. was hoping it was Paisley and Ren South but it was the wrong shape. but the reds are 8/1 in East Ren so I'll have a bit of that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.

    Con 42%, 370 seats
    Lab 34%, 203 seats
    SNP 4%, 42 seats
    LD 11%, 12 seats
    UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
    Green 2%, 0 seats
    PC, 3 seats


    And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
    Not true.

    I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.

    Here's my list:

    Twickenham
    One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)

    O&S
    Edinburgh West
    Fife NE
    East Dunbartonshire

    Ceredgion

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    North Norfolk
    Sheffield Hallam

    Plus two from my possible list:
    Argyll & Bute
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
    St Ives
    Bath
    Cheltenham
    Eastbourne
    Lewes
    OxWAb
    St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
    But Farron hasn't been to visit.....
    He did. Uniquely among party leaders visiting Cornwall (IIRC jezza hasn't been) he even risked taking questions from real people (*mayesque shudder*)

    http://m.cornwalllive.com/cornwall-live-liberal-democrat-leader-tim-farron-quizzed-at-penwith-college-in-penzance/story-30322266-detail/story.html
    So not in the past month then. We were told Cornwall had been abandoned by the LibDems. As have Devon and Somerset it seems, if Farron hasn't been seen down here for four weeks....
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

    What's a vote-swap vote?
    Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
    But how does he get two votes?
    He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
    Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    These anecdotes about new voters for Corbyn should not be necessarily concerning for the Tories.

    The 2015 baseline for Labour is a little over 30%. All the polls have Labour increasing that, by an average of around 5-6%. This translates to probably well over a million voters, and not far off a couple of thousand per constituency on average. So hearing of newly enthused voters, young or otherwise, is exactly what we'd expect surely, from a statistical viewpoint.

    But the tories look to have found even more voters, around an extra 7% on average.

    Hope this allays some of the damp sheets risk...
  • ChaosOdinChaosOdin Posts: 67
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Also: word of warning. If seats are to be swinging wildly all over the place tonight, I'd expect the exit poll to perhaps be a little less accurate than usual, possibly with both Con/Lab seats predictions having an error of +/- 20 seats.

    That is the usual margin of error for the exit poll, I seem to remember from last time.
    The errors in the exit poll last time were:

    Con -14
    Lab +7
    LD +2
    SNP +2
    PC +1
    UKIP +1
    Greens +1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    ChaosOdin said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?
    2010-2015 v 2005-2010 or 2015-2017

    QED
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    The idea that labour has a built in advantage in the map is historical. With the loss of Scotland it no longer holds.

    Milliband put 3% on Browns 2010 total and lost seats. Corbyn could easily put another 4% on and lose more seats.

    The case for voting reform is unanswerable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

    What's a vote-swap vote?
    Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
    But how does he get two votes?
    He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
    Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
    I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.

    Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435


    St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.

    But Farron hasn't been to visit.....

    St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

    What's a vote-swap vote?
    Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
    But how does he get two votes?
    He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
    Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
    Its that 'vote swap' website. You contract with another person in a more winnable seat to both swap your own votes, in your own seats, tactically.
  • Coral have flagged an offer of Con most seats @ 20/1 if you sign up
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunu said:

    Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

    They've also now got Stirling going to the Tories.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Large GOTV operation for Labour in Dulwich and West Norwood this morning. I guess there are so many Momentum boots on the ground in London that they can do this. The seat is pretty safe.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    Im sorry, I'm still half asleep, am I reading this headline from the local press right? Even referring on,y to the local circulation area it makes no sense.

    http://www.wiltshiretimes.co.uk/news/15333729.Labour_may_overtake_Tories_in_west__poll_finds/

    Bizarre. It says it is done by Google Surveys, and it only now occurs to me that it was only a matter of time before Google moved into and dominated political polling. And it says 26:34 (published yesterday) Con:Lab as against 31:25 when GE called. "The South West" isn't defined. It is part of "a nationwide poll".

    Edit: Surrey local news has the same survey and figures 27:32 vs 31:25, so crossover again

    http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/general-election-polls-survey-finds-13146320
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited June 2017
    Mr. Pubgoer, really? That seems... generous.

    Edited extra bit: £1 stake only.

    Edited extra bit 2: quite tempted, but the sign-up page isn't, apparently, fully secure. So decided against it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    ChaosOdin said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?
    I like coalition. Although I'm actually up for a variety of options rather than pure PR in truth.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.

    I would be surprised if many have gone astray (on the outward) in the UK, as most councils posted them out very early
    Ours were posted on 19/5
    Exactly.

    Spanish inward quality of service is somewhat different from intra-UK
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Coral have flagged an offer of Con most seats @ 20/1 if you sign up

    but it says the winnings are paid in free bets. SO no actual money?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Charles said:

    Freggles said:

    YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is
    Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?
    That's the bear-trap inherent in the question. It's far too difficult to do anything these days without falling foul of some law or another. And then she'd be hung out to dry for a 'funny anecdote'.

    I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.

    On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Just begun listening to the podcast, and agree entirely with Mr. Eagles that the Conservative campaign has been far too soft on Corbyn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    nunu said:

    Coral have flagged an offer of Con most seats @ 20/1 if you sign up

    but it says the winnings are paid in free bets. SO no actual money?
    You just need to wait for a nice sure-fire 1/8 bet to come along (like Remain or Clinton) and stick your winnings on that, then withdraw your balance?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
    Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    hardpawn said:

    Topping said:

    'My worry is that Lab pick up 20 seats in Scotland thus giving them the edge nationally.'

    In Tory support terms it is irrelevant because the SNP will almost always vote against the Tories in Westminster just to be destructive (e.g. shopping hours). But it is more likely to keep Corbyn as leader which must be better for the Tories than a fresh face in 2022.

    I'm talking about who is in government terms!
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

    What's a vote-swap vote?
    Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
    But how does he get two votes?
    He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
    Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs
    I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.

    Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.
    OK I think I'm there, I assumed (wrongly) he was voting lib in Bedford.

    Still very odd
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087

    Just begun listening to the podcast, and agree entirely with Mr. Eagles that the Conservative campaign has been far too soft on Corbyn.

    Rubbish. The more they banged on about Corbyn the worse things got for them. People expect a government about to take office to have something to say on its own account.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Jonathan said:

    Voted Labour.

    Surprised myself to back Labour under Corbyn.

    You may have surprised yourself but you haven't surprised anyone else.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    AndyJS said:

    nunu said:

    Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

    They've also now got Stirling going to the Tories.
    Bath 0.5% chance of going LibDem.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
    Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
    The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017



    St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.

    According to the PA list, St Ives is due to declare at 7am, so not a Friday afternoon count.

    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_name.php
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    GeoffM said:

    Charles said:

    Freggles said:

    YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is
    Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?
    That's the bear-trap inherent in the question. It's far too difficult to do anything these days without falling foul of some law or another. And then she'd be hung out to dry for a 'funny anecdote'.

    I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.

    On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.
    If you think running around in standing wheat is a trivial offence, go and do it under the eye of the farmer whose wheat it is. It's equivalent to going into a shop with a hammer and a knife and destroying all the stock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    AndyJS said:

    nunu said:

    Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

    They've also now got Stirling going to the Tories.
    Bath 0.5% chance of going LibDem.....
    I'm amazed they're as positive for the party overall then (not that it's a great prediction for theme course)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    On the naughty question, all May had to say was 'i couldn't possibly tell you that ' and if pushed say 'it involved an industrial pot of Swafega, a brass band and first edition Agatha Christie '
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    As at every GE, I voted in the hope that next election we'll all be able to vote online...
    Jonathan said:

    British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.

    FICBWNBC

    (FPTP Is Crap But Will Not Be Changed)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    As at every GE, I voted in the hope that next election we'll all be able to vote online...

    Jonathan said:

    British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.

    FICBWNBC

    (FPTP Is Crap But Will Not Be Changed)
    I don't want Russian hackers able to access our voting system.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
    Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
    The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.
    but the whole point was about whether or not labour do have a bigger advantage over their rival, and thus whether the changes redress that advantage fairly or not. Not whether fptp inherently advantages whoever tops the poll.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    For those of you who aren't out and about, here's my General Election themed cryptic crossword for you to have a go at... https://dadge.wordpress.com/2017/06/08/general-election-cryptic-crossword/
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    A few candid comments before I head off for my duties.

    - I'm not bothering in go to Nottingham South (was a Tory target), let alone Nottingham North, as I believe they're both safe. I'm uneasy about Gedling, but I can do more good in Broxtowe as a known face - I'll be based in WWC Kimberley and the surrounding commuterland all day.

    - ICM's assumptions seem to me too bold, Survation's too nonchalant. I feel pretty sure the result will be in between.

    - Class is now dead as a significant factor, see HYUFD's stats.

    - I do think the "Enough is Enough" comment cut through and has helped steady the Tories, and it may even have started a little swingback in the last days.

    - The Tories appear to have neglected their vulnerable seats and gone all out for attack. I only know Broxtowe well: they have had just two leaflets throughout the campaign, both low key, and Soubry has been out with tiny canvass groups. I expect Labour's result there to be better than the national swing (our effort there has been huge) - if Survation is right, Broxtowe will fall.

    - Although suspicious of subsamples, there seems lots of evidence of big regional variance. I think Scotland may well be the biggest.

    Best guess: Labour over 200 but Tory majority of 80 thanks partly to Scottish advances.



    If Tories are not putting that much effort into Broxtowe they must think it's a HOLD and are concentrating on other more marginal seats. Prehaps Gedling. Hmmm
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sturgeon has voted. SNP landslide!
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!

    Don't take a picture (and certainly don't post it anywhere). It is actually quite a serious offence
    How about a wife-swap instead? Photo compulsory.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Time for my polling day anecdote.

    Voting was definitely 'brisk' in Leeds city centre this morning. Around 10 people queueing at 7:20. Chap at the door said it is always busy - claimed that the queue sometimes reaches as far back as the station, but I think that might have been a bit of an exaggeration.

    Anyway, the latte-sipping urbanites of West Yorkshire are heading to the polls.

    Meanwhile, by 8:40, voting could be described as 'steady' at the primary school near my work in Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford. One chap arrived in a white van, so a possible vote for The Yorkshire Party?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Morning all,

    Long wait until 10pm now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Jonathan said:

    British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.

    Just not as crap as any of the alternatives.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    JackW said:

    Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore

    Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :

    "I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :

    Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes
    Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody)
    Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes
    Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201

    I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.

    JackW said:

    Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore

    Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :

    "I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :

    Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes
    Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody)
    Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes
    Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201

    I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.

    A handsome victory for Mrs W, Jack, against all the odds. Congratulations to her. I had the Liberals as favourites in the seat, which shows what I know.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    AndyJS said:

    As at every GE, I voted in the hope that next election we'll all be able to vote online...

    Jonathan said:

    British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.

    FICBWNBC

    (FPTP Is Crap But Will Not Be Changed)
    I don't want Russian hackers able to access our voting system.
    :+1::+1:
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    I like my new profile picture.


    I can't change mine. I'm stuck with this horrible yellow and green thing. Before you ask, yes, I have changed my username again – this is because bobajobPB has been unable to post since the weekend, for no good reason at all. Vanilla is just weird.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488

    By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

    It's because for most people this is the dullest election in living memory. No-one sensible wants Corbyn to win.

    The Tories will win a landslide on a low turnout.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

    I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.

    Just not as crap as any of the alternatives.
    Think we should try something else . FPTP has been found wanting time and again.

    Scotland politics has thrived without it.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    As at every GE, I voted in the hope that next election we'll all be able to vote online...

    Jonathan said:

    British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.

    FICBWNBC

    (FPTP Is Crap But Will Not Be Changed)
    I don't want Russian hackers able to access our voting system.
    It'd make MI5's job easier though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.

    Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.

    Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?

    Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

    I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?
    Bucketing down in Devon, forecast to clear at lunchtime.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

    I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?
    The weather on 23 June last year was awful. Didn't stop 72% voting.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    AndyJS said:



    St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.

    According to the PA list, St Ives is due to declare at 7am, so not a Friday afternoon count.

    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_name.php
    No chance, with ballot boxes scattered across the Scillies to gather in and then the trip to Penzance (by boat probably), on a typically wet blustery day I cannot see the ballots even being on the mainland before 7am, not before 1300 my prediction,
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Rentool, news last night had some ex-coal miners (now working in mining museum) who were clearly full of loathing for Corbyn but didn't like May either. One of them said he'd be voting for the Yorkshire Party.

    Humbug to that!
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

    It's because for most people this is the dullest election in living memory. No-one sensible wants Corbyn to win.

    The Tories will win a landslide on a low turnout.
    That is so right, to me its like an election has not really been taking place, if I didn't spend time on this website then I would not be thinking about it. At work no one has talked about it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,087
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stephen Bush:

    Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

    My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

    This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

    It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

    And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

    You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?
    Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?
    That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.
    I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.
    Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.
    The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.
    but the whole point was about whether or not labour do have a bigger advantage over their rival, and thus whether the changes redress that advantage fairly or not. Not whether fptp inherently advantages whoever tops the poll.
    Given the vagaries of the system and the varied distribution of votes, there is never going to be a time when one major party doesn't have a relative advantage over the other.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Colchester 9am - polling station very busy with lots of nhs staff. One heard saying only labour will help nhs
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    nunu said:



    If Tories are not putting that much effort into Broxtowe they must think it's a HOLD and are concentrating on other more marginal seats. Prehaps Gedling. Hmmm

    Yes, they've been open about it - Nottingham S, Gedling and even Nottingham N have had lots of Tory attention, Broxtowe not. I speculate that this is a general pattern which they may live to regret IF the Survation end of the scale is correct.

    Anyway, election work to do, have fun everyone.
This discussion has been closed.