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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017

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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    How many different exit polls are we expecting tonight ?

    Just one. They first combined forces in 2005 IIRC.
    Out of interest, can anyone detail the methodology?

    How many sampling points, where, how long for, question method, etc.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. kle4, XCOM 2 is a great game.

    Not heard of Endless Space.

    Incidentally, Dragon's Dogma (came out 5 years ago now...) is coming out for the PS4 in Autumn. I never got Dark Arisen (expanded version) so I may very well buy that.

    Also, looking forward to Kingdom Come Deliverance, an RPG set in 1403, Bohemia. There's an announcement being made tomorrow, which might well be the release date (it is set for 2017 release on PC and consoles).

    On games, a silly knight suggested picking one of the following during election coverage, and taking a shot when it happens:
    1) a pundit says it's a terrible night for the Tories
    2) the SNP lose a seat
    3) Tim Farron complains FPTP is unfair
    4) a Labour candidate/MP blames Corbyn
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,983

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    A fair point!!
    I never understand why others of my generation don’t consider the interests of their grandchildren. After all they’ll be passing on the genes. We’ve done our bit!
    Oh, I do. It's not in their interests to burden them with debt and a sclerotic economy.

    I have a lot of sympathy with young people and homeownership, and my wife and I make a point of not objecting to new housing schemes.
    See what you mean. And I wish the new houses proposed round here had some degree of affordability, although one smallish new one does.
    The other is being developed by someone who is apparently going to make a fortune at any cost to everyone else.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TudorRose said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    I'm technically a millennial - and the fact is my generation and the one below it do not vote anywhere near as much as others. I hope that changes, even if it means votes for Corbyn, but if someone is making the argument that those people would vote if they could do so online, then how else but lazy and idle could that be described (and that is what prompted much of the comments, that specific issue)?

    Now, if the argument is the young are less engaged with, not appealed to enough, that is something else, that is them not wanting to vote - in which case the problem is not idleness and the solution is the Corbyn approach of appealing to them more. But fact it some were making the argument the young would vote more if they could do so online rather than a short journey to do so in person, and I find that pretty insulting to young people, frankly. I'd rather believe they are disengaged and we should do something about that, than that they are lazy.
    We're disengaged. Corbyn has at the very least made a pitch to us (and a very tempting one at that), whereas I'm not sure May even knows that we exist.

    The only policy really relevant to young people that I've heard has been the tuition fees from Labour, I'm not aware of a single other policy regarding young people.
    SNIP
    The Millennial generation is a bigger cohort than the Baby Boom and indeed Generation X (which is slender compared to its two rivals). So we should bloody well start treating the Millennial generation seriously rather than stereotyping it and slating it. They were born into a very different world to the Xers and Boomers, yet still society is organised around the worldview and experiences of the latter.
    You mean like the triple lock on pensions?
    Yes. I don't agree with its retention.
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    Mr. Bobajob, myself, Mr. kle4 and others regularly discuss computer games. Indeed, I grow tired of those who look down on people into videogames.

    Do you mean tall people Morris?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Are we going to see the old addage hold true. Take highest tory and lowest labour shares from all major polls? That tweet about labour being on 36% if and only if the yuff turn out is very interesting.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    How many different exit polls are we expecting tonight ?

    Just one. They first combined forces in 2005 IIRC.
    Out of interest, can anyone detail the methodology?

    How many sampling points, where, how long for, question method, etc.

    Same polling stations (where possible), I think they ask voters to do what they've just done (i.e. cast a vote using an almost identical ballot paper). All that matters is change from last time.
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    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    A fair point!!
    I never understand why others of my generation don’t consider the interests of their grandchildren. After all they’ll be passing on the genes. We’ve done our bit!
    Oh, I do. It's not in their interests to burden them with debt and a sclerotic economy.

    I have a lot of sympathy with young people and homeownership, and my wife and I make a point of not objecting to new housing schemes.
    Nice comeback - succinct and to the point!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    edited June 2017

    Why so? (I want to know because I've mislaid mine.)
    So long as you are registered to vote in that constituency you don't need your card.

    Some people have read it as you don't need A polling card, you can turn up and vote regardless of whether you're registered or not
    Too late of course if this went out yesterday one way or another.

    Plus nice podcast yesterday. You sounded taller than I had imagined.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    Did you miss that the Tories actually told their elderly vote this time that they could not have a bunch of freebies, they removed the Triple Lock, are means testing WFA, and provided specific and unpopular details of including peoples' homes when calculating assets to pay for social care costs?

    I am not contesting they have not made a pitch to the young, but they did not actually go for the grey vote bribes to anything like the extent they have before - and indeed Labour did promise to keep the ones I mentioned.
    Good point. Perhaps we'll have a reversal this time - youth voting in vast multitudes while the old sit it out.
    Would be a surprise, and very good for Labour if so, but as it is a much larger cohort of 65+ than 18-24, a drop off from the former could be more significant than a rise in the latter, in many seats, I would have thought.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    You seem to think it's all about wants - outputs respond pretty well to inputs - try voting.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    So it's all about greed - you want hard-pressed taxpayers and those on low incomes to pay taxes so your debts can be cancelled. Glad we cleared that one up.
    Well no, preferably I'd like those that have benefitted massively from the housing price boom, pensions boom, free education, free bus passes, free health and social care as well as a booming world economy which lead to massive job and wage growth to stop scrounging off the state. People over 60 have had 40 plus years to prepare for retirement, why must the young pay for their shoddy planning?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    HaroldO said:

    Anecdote from a teller in a seat where Labour should be making gains.

    So far had three youngish Corbyn/Labour supporters turn up, who were very upset to learn they couldn't vote because they weren't on the register.

    Apparently Martin Lewis had said you don't need a polling card to vote.

    You don't need to bring your polling card, i think he would have meant.
    I voted this morning without my polling card. My wife had tidied up so I was unable to find anything.
    Woman's Equality?
    I didn't ask her to! When I tidy up I know where everything is.
    still scattered all over the floor?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    AndyJS said:

    jonny83 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Labour's projected 36% share (up 5% on 2015) depends on heavy support from under 34s..will they turn out today?

    Every election I've taken an interest in young people have been supposed to be voting in large numbers and they never do. Will it be different this time? I'm unconvinced.
    I don't think so, except in major cities, because new young people come along all the time and tend to have the same habits.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    How many different exit polls are we expecting tonight ?

    Just one. They first combined forces in 2005 IIRC.
    Out of interest, can anyone detail the methodology?

    How many sampling points, where, how long for, question method, etc.

    http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,945
    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    You seem to think it's all about wants - outputs respond pretty well to inputs - try voting.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    So it's all about greed - you want hard-pressed taxpayers and those on low incomes to pay taxes so your debts can be cancelled. Glad we cleared that one up.
    I think the vast majority of people vote in their own self interest. Tories are just a little more honest about it. Most Labour votes are of the "take away from them and give to me" variety. The only people who vote against their own economic self interest are the ones who are rich enough to do so.

    We were talking about George Orwell last night, here's one from The Road to Wigan Pier:

    "I am struck again by the fact that as soon as a working man gets an official post in the Trade Union or goes into Labour politics, he becomes middle-class whether he will or no. ie. by fighting against the bourgeoisie he becomes a bourgeois. The fact is that you cannot help living in the manner appropriate and developing the ideology appropriate to your income."
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    Why so? (I want to know because I've mislaid mine.)
    People who are not on the electoral roll are (apparently) turning up at polling stations expecting to be allowed to vote
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    Any predictions for Theresas post-election purge?

    I can't recall an election campaign where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made public enemies of themselves.

    Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.

    The executions will commence at dawn.
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    New thread
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    If your politics are those that don't care about character and association with Terrorists, or you can convince yourself that the motives were pure, and if you can get around the decimation of our defence / security services and industries that would happen, or if you can suspend disbelief regarding the fact that the forecasts for income on Labours tax plans are ropey, then Corbyn is a great campaigner who says a lot of motherhood and apple pie slogans. More money for NHS hurrah! MOre money for schools hurrah! No student fees hurrah! It's all costed in this 5 page pamphlet hurray!

    My (usually quite right wing) teenage son sent me that Corbyn "standing at the door with the flashcards" video last night. I gave him the usual reply about naive old fool with an unfortuate choice in friends and causes, a suicidal distrust of our security services, and plans involving more than the usual shaking of the magic money tree - there has been a noticeable silence since, he has to put a a good show for his new leftie girlfriend who was probably looking over his shoulder :smirk:

    I suspect he was thinking of that line Yes Minister, in effect "Dad, I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell my girlfriend" :lol:

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    You seem to think it's all about wants - outputs respond pretty well to inputs - try voting.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    So it's all about greed - you want hard-pressed taxpayers and those on low incomes to pay taxes so your debts can be cancelled. Glad we cleared that one up.
    Debts that only exist due to a party voted in by the oldies who got their education scot-free.
    Wasn't scot-free - the taxpayers paid for it at the time. Is that what you want to return to? 50% of people still don't go to University. They will be paying for the other 50% to go.

    Sound like a good plan?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    AndyJS said:

    jonny83 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Labour's projected 36% share (up 5% on 2015) depends on heavy support from under 34s..will they turn out today?

    At every election I've taken an interest in young people have been supposed to be voting in large numbers and they never do. Will it be different this time? I'm unconvinced.
    It's a question of how much and where - It was 7 points higher among the young in 2010 than 2015, as we know, if that can be matched or exceeded even slightly, in the right places, that will have an impact. Would it be significant enough though? Unless it really is up near 70, I'd guess not, but it will lead to gains in places and saving seats in others.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,426

    NEW THREAD

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,817
    Did we ever get an update to ICM?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Famous quote from Harold Wilson in 1970 after he'd reduced the voting age from 21 to 18:

    "We gave the youngsters a vote and the buggers didn't use it."
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    A fair point!!
    I never understand why others of my generation don’t consider the interests of their grandchildren. After all they’ll be passing on the genes. We’ve done our bit!
    They do. They have experience of life. They recognise that there are limits to government give aways. They recognise that increasing tax rates cn reduce tax take. They recognise that putting more money into public services just to increase salaries not productivity does not improve public services.
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    You seem to think it's all about wants - outputs respond pretty well to inputs - try voting.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    'A party' cancelling your debts? Surely you mean 'other people' or 'taxpayers'?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    jonny83 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Labour's projected 36% share (up 5% on 2015) depends on heavy support from under 34s..will they turn out today?

    If corbyn really does smash past Ed's figures by that much I feel sorry for Ed.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    Why so? (I want to know because I've mislaid mine.)
    I don't take my polling card to the station. The teller scores off your name from the Electoral Roll list. The main purpose of the polling card is to tell you where to vote.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    kle4 said:


    The Millennial generation is a bigger cohort than the Baby Boom and indeed Generation X (which is slender compared to its two rivals). So we should bloody well start treating the Millennial generation seriously rather than stereotyping it and slating it. They were born into a very different world to the Xers and Boomers, yet still society is organised around the worldview and experiences of the latter.

    Look, are you against stereotyping or not? As you are perfectly content to stereotype other generations, but are hugely upset that others stereotype my generation (wiki - There are no precise dates for when this cohort starts or ends; demographers and researchers typically use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years)

    You are hugely conflating a few people pointing out (and yes, some mocking and being happy at) young people don't vote with the slating of an entire demographic. I happen to agree too much focus is on the elderly demographics, that's why I was pleased the Tories were bold enough to take away the Triple Lock (Corbyn was very unhappy about this, he repeated the question 3-4 times at Amber Rudd) among other things. No, it wasn't a direct pitch to younger people, but it was a recognition that the elderly were getting more than could fairly be sustained.
    May's failure was to do that and not look like she was offering much to the young, in turn.

    Why didn't she go big on the technical skills training, new homebuilding programme, and low taxes for those starting off in their career?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    notme said:

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

    One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):

    http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

    Con: 350
    Lab: 224
    Lib: 8
    SNP: 45

    Con Maj 50
    It looks to me a fairly accurate assessment of one of the seats in cumbria that I've had the opportunity to observe. I think it's wrong for Copeland though. The model has it on labour with 99. It really won't be that. The constituency is not going to flip back from only a few months ago.
    Wakefield goes Con by 31 votes! Not sure that is going to be good for Mr. Herdson's blood pressure!
    Anyone heard from Mr Herdson today? I'm hoping his mood is a touch more chipper!
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    Did you miss that the Tories actually told their elderly vote this time that they could not have a bunch of freebies, they removed the Triple Lock, are means testing WFA, and provided specific and unpopular details of including peoples' homes when calculating assets to pay for social care costs?

    I am not contesting they have not made a pitch to the young, but they did not actually go for the grey vote bribes to anything like the extent they have before - and indeed Labour did promise to keep the ones I mentioned.
    Yeah, I was relatively impressed by May's taking on of the grey vote, until she u-turned on a decent part of it. However that being said I'm afraid her views on internet censorship are slightly at odds to mine.

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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    You seem to think it's all about wants - outputs respond pretty well to inputs - try voting.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    So it's all about greed - you want hard-pressed taxpayers and those on low incomes to pay taxes so your debts can be cancelled. Glad we cleared that one up.
    I thought the Tories were the greedy ones! There is a reason for tuition fees - education is expensive and you should go to Uni to get a degree that will support your future earnings. However I have always supported a supplemental graduate tax.
  • Options
    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    jonny83 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Labour's projected 36% share (up 5% on 2015) depends on heavy support from under 34s..will they turn out today?

    Labour are in for a pasting I'm sure of it. I bet now that every poll has overstated them with the possible exception of BMG at 33%. Could be as low as 31% and possibly even lower.

    I think we're in landslide territory.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

    Just incredible.
  • Options
    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    How many different exit polls are we expecting tonight ?

    Just one. They first combined forces in 2005 IIRC.
    Out of interest, can anyone detail the methodology?

    How many sampling points, where, how long for, question method, etc.

    Same polling stations (where possible), I think they ask voters to do what they've just done (i.e. cast a vote using an almost identical ballot paper). All that matters is change from last time.
    Do they sample everyone coming out of those polling stations all day?

    Do we know which polling stations?

    I'm just interested, as clearly the methodology is much more accurate than weighted sample projections of future behaviour from the polling random number generating companies.

  • Options
    madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago)..
    The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..

    I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Bobajob, myself, Mr. kle4 and others regularly discuss computer games. Indeed, I grow tired of those who look down on people into videogames.

    As I recall NickPalmer was recommending Endless Space 2 only last night. I believe the average gamer is now in their mid 30s - they grew up playing games, and they are a more fruitful market to pitch to, as they don't have to ask their parents to buy games for them.

    I've a day off, I think I might play some Doom, then start another run of Pillars of Eternity, then some relaxing XCOM2
    I'm 34 and play a lot of games mainly on the Xbox these days. Currently a lot of Overwatch Borderlands 2 and started a new Fallout 4 new playthrough.

    There are a lot of studies out there that it's actually quite beneficial to play videogames in terms of it being good for the brain. My dad who is 62 plays videogames on his PC.
  • Options
    JackW doesn't appear to be on PB.com right now ...... did anyone see his promised final detailed GE seats forecast for each party, together with his estimate of the turnout?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Brom said:

    notme said:

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

    One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):

    http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

    Con: 350
    Lab: 224
    Lib: 8
    SNP: 45

    Con Maj 50
    It looks to me a fairly accurate assessment of one of the seats in cumbria that I've had the opportunity to observe. I think it's wrong for Copeland though. The model has it on labour with 99. It really won't be that. The constituency is not going to flip back from only a few months ago.
    Wakefield goes Con by 31 votes! Not sure that is going to be good for Mr. Herdson's blood pressure!
    Anyone heard from Mr Herdson today? I'm hoping his mood is a touch more chipper!
    if he's nervous the best thing to do is GOTV if possible.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    jonny83 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Bobajob, myself, Mr. kle4 and others regularly discuss computer games. Indeed, I grow tired of those who look down on people into videogames.

    As I recall NickPalmer was recommending Endless Space 2 only last night. I believe the average gamer is now in their mid 30s - they grew up playing games, and they are a more fruitful market to pitch to, as they don't have to ask their parents to buy games for them.

    I've a day off, I think I might play some Doom, then start another run of Pillars of Eternity, then some relaxing XCOM2
    I'm 34 and play a lot of games mainly on the Xbox these days. Currently a lot of Overwatch Borderlands 2 and started a new Fallout 4 new playthrough.

    There are a lot of studies out there that it's actually quite beneficial to play videogames in terms of it being good for the brain. My dad who is 62 plays videogames on his PC.
    I've just bought Hearts of Iron IV.

    Want to play, but don't fully understand it yet and it's fiendishly complex.

    I'm trying to build up British armies in Kenya and Egypt ready for when it all kicks off in 1939, and go straight after Mussolini.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    You seem to think it's all about wants - outputs respond pretty well to inputs - try voting.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    So it's all about greed - you want hard-pressed taxpayers and those on low incomes to pay taxes so your debts can be cancelled. Glad we cleared that one up.
    I thought the Tories were the greedy ones! There is a reason for tuition fees - education is expensive and you should go to Uni to get a degree that will support your future earnings. However I have always supported a supplemental graduate tax.
    To be fair, the current system is basically a graduate tax, as the loan repayments are 9% of all income over £20,000. However of course that extra 5% or so of income that it will take away from people earning £40k is probably the difference between being able to save for a deposit and renting for ever.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    Did you miss that the Tories actually told their elderly vote this time that they could not have a bunch of freebies, they removed the Triple Lock, are means testing WFA, and provided specific and unpopular details of including peoples' homes when calculating assets to pay for social care costs?

    I am not contesting they have not made a pitch to the young, but they did not actually go for the grey vote bribes to anything like the extent they have before - and indeed Labour did promise to keep the ones I mentioned.
    Yeah, I was relatively impressed by May's taking on of the grey vote, until she u-turned on a decent part of it. However that being said I'm afraid her views on internet censorship are slightly at odds to mine.

    Mine too, for that matter.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329

    Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago)..
    The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..

    I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"

    I find you can predict the voting intention of the householder with 80% accuracy by looking at the garden.

    Once found a pristine garden, Jaguar in the drive, and a Union Jack flying up a flagpole.

    I didn't even bother knocking on the door.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    kle4 said:


    The Millennial generation is a bigger cohort than the Baby Boom and indeed Generation X (which is slender compared to its two rivals). So we should bloody well start treating the Millennial generation seriously rather than stereotyping it and slating it. They were born into a very different world to the Xers and Boomers, yet still society is organised around the worldview and experiences of the latter.

    Look, are you against stereotyping or not? As you are perfectly content to stereotype other generations, but are hugely upset that others stereotype my generation (wiki - There are no precise dates for when this cohort starts or ends; demographers and researchers typically use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years)

    You are hugely conflating a few people pointing out (and yes, some mocking and being happy at) young people don't vote with the slating of an entire demographic. I happen to agree too much focus is on the elderly demographics, that's why I was pleased the Tories were bold enough to take away the Triple Lock (Corbyn was very unhappy about this, he repeated the question 3-4 times at Amber Rudd) among other things. No, it wasn't a direct pitch to younger people, but it was a recognition that the elderly were getting more than could fairly be sustained.
    May's failure was to do that and not look like she was offering much to the young, in turn.

    Why didn't she go big on the technical skills training, new homebuilding programme, and low taxes for those starting off in their career?
    Because the campaign was poorly done, and when Labour surged the Tories had no idea what to combat it with.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

    Just incredible.

    Same as Tezza in the Brexit debate. Make of that what you will...
  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    To be blunt, the reason why the young don't vote is because usually the major parties just give us a choice of how we want to be shafted, and while this is going on the conservatives (among others...) are shoving humungous bungs of money towards those that will probably have passed away before the full ramifications of their votes are felt.

    How is this meant to encourage us to vote?
    You seem to think it's all about wants - outputs respond pretty well to inputs - try voting.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    So it's all about greed - you want hard-pressed taxpayers and those on low incomes to pay taxes so your debts can be cancelled. Glad we cleared that one up.
    Debts that only exist due to a party voted in by the oldies who got their education scot-free.
    It may not be that simple. For my generation (I'm in my early 50s) only around 12% of 18 year olds progressed to University, nowadays it's closer to 50%. So it's a combination of widening opportunity, financial sustainability and changing academic 'standards' that have led to the current situation. Some of the 38% of my generation, who would have gone to university under the current system but couldn't because of lack of access at the time, might wonder why their taxes should pay for 'free' education now.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    jonny83 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Labour's projected 36% share (up 5% on 2015) depends on heavy support from under 34s..will they turn out today?

    Labour are in for a pasting I'm sure of it. I bet now that every poll has overstated them with the possible exception of BMG at 33%. Could be as low as 31% and possibly even lower.

    I think we're in landslide territory.
    Wasn't it NateSilver (I know, poor record in UK elections) who did an analysis saying that the polls are much less likely to understate Con when they have been consistently ahead? I wonder if the concomitant point was made re overstating Lab.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago)..
    The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..

    I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"

    I find you can predict the voting intention of the householder with 80% accuracy by looking at the garden.

    Once found a pristine garden, Jaguar in the drive, and a Union Jack flying up a flagpole.

    I didn't even bother knocking on the door.
    So wealthy, patriotic people don't vote Labour?
  • Options

    It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

    Just incredible.

    His days in senior Government are numbered I reckon it's fair to say. Hopefully Michael Gove will take over as Chancellor.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    jonny83 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Bobajob, myself, Mr. kle4 and others regularly discuss computer games. Indeed, I grow tired of those who look down on people into videogames.

    As I recall NickPalmer was recommending Endless Space 2 only last night. I believe the average gamer is now in their mid 30s - they grew up playing games, and they are a more fruitful market to pitch to, as they don't have to ask their parents to buy games for them.

    I've a day off, I think I might play some Doom, then start another run of Pillars of Eternity, then some relaxing XCOM2
    I'm 34 and play a lot of games mainly on the Xbox these days. Currently a lot of Overwatch Borderlands 2 and started a new Fallout 4 new playthrough.

    There are a lot of studies out there that it's actually quite beneficial to play videogames in terms of it being good for the brain. My dad who is 62 plays videogames on his PC.
    Try holding the aim gun in Farpoint PSVR. Utterly immersive. It brings back the wonder you had as a child playing sonic for the first time, or taken, or mario 64.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago)..
    The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..

    I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"

    I find you can predict the voting intention of the householder with 80% accuracy by looking at the garden.

    Once found a pristine garden, Jaguar in the drive, and a Union Jack flying up a flagpole.

    I didn't even bother knocking on the door.
    What about one where the garden has been turned into a bricked driveway, with sporadic weeds/grass growing out of the brickwork?
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    JackW doesn't appear to be on PB.com right now ...... did anyone see his promised final detailed GE seats forecast for each party, together with his estimate of the turnout?


    He had a wide range of outcomes but I think the average was about 70 majority for Con.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    If you have to explain why the wording could be misleading, I don't think it is as misleading as some think, even if some are indeed confused.
  • Options
    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited June 2017

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    Chameleon said:

    felix said:

    It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their tradition of stereotyping people.

    Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.

    How we larfed.
    You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?

    I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage

    And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
    I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.
    Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.
    I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
    So it's all about greed - you want hard-pressed taxpayers and those on low incomes to pay taxes so your debts can be cancelled. Glad we cleared that one up.
    I thought the Tories were the greedy ones! There is a reason for tuition fees - education is expensive and you should go to Uni to get a degree that will support your future earnings. However I have always supported a supplemental graduate tax.
    The welcome to the scrapping tuition fees policy was an example of lazy thinking and notions of entitlement from (some) students.

    a) scrapping tuition fees benefited better off graduates only, as those on lower wages have their loans written off anyway.

    b) why shouldn't better off graduates pay for their tuition - as a nation we had to pay for the expansion of higher education from 1/8 in my father's day, to 1/3 when I went in the early 90s to 1 in 2 today. There is no magic money tree, and 9bn quid would be better spent enhancing life opportunities of kids in primary school not wiping rich graduates' debts off.

    The policy was entirely regressive - but played well to "hard pressed" students as an election bribe alongside unicorn zoos and free emeralds for everyone.

    The generational gap I see opening up is one where (some) young people expect to have all the benefits of an advanced economy now, whereas (some) older people feel they have worked and earned those benefits.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:



    Another one blaming the Cons for the UK's vote to leave the EU when their leader was a Remainer, while Jezza was (and is) a Leaver.

    Actually what I was saying is that it doesn't matter hugely who is leader after today because the key thing is Brexit.

    The Conservatives have no meaningful plan for Brexit. To the extent they can mitigate the damage they are not going to do so, unless something unexpected happens. Labour have a slightly better approach to Brexit in fact, although it hasn't really been tested.
    Lab's plan for Brexit is staying in the single market and unlimited immigration.

    I can't see that not causing trouble although the UK being what it is, perhaps they will get away with it.
    Maybe. Have and Eat it Brexit is the Conservatives' version of the Magic Money Tree. Not going to happen, any more than all the goodies promised by Labour. It will be don't have it and don't eat it Brexit along with loads of cuts.
    Yes of course and I hope they realise that it will be fantastically difficult to negotiate any kind of good deal with the EU. But your position seems to be I wouldn't have started from here.

    We are where we are. Penalising the Cons for Brexit ignores the fact that we are Brexiting and the aim is now to get the best possible deal for us. My view is that the Cons are likely to do this while Lab, apart from being in disarray internally, which is never a good look at the negotiating table, will be less effective.
    You have your view, which is fine, but you misrepresent mine. No, I wouldn't start from here, but that's not the point. I am interested in outcomes. It's a divorce, which as is typical for these things, leaves both parties worse off. The EU understandably is keen to see as much of the damage as possible fall on our side, not theirs. They also hold most of the cards. The sensible negotiating position for us is, let's be responsible adults, think of the children, I can help out on holidays etc and not to haggle over the coffee maker that the EU is going to hang onto anyway.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

    Just incredible.

    I agree largely, however we've become so used to the PM & Chancellor being best buddies and in total sync that it's quite nice going back to a time when the Chancellor is someone appointed by the PM to do a job who is replaceable rather than a friend who they once made a pact with.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Brom said:

    It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

    Just incredible.

    I agree largely, however we've become so used to the PM & Chancellor being best buddies and in total sync that it's quite nice going back to a time when the Chancellor is someone appointed by the PM to do a job who is replaceable rather than a friend who they once made a pact with.
    As long as they are not bitter rivals who everyone pretends are not bitter rivals that would be something - that was the refreshing thing about Cameron and Osborne, I don't think there were any hints he was working against Cameron for his own ambition (even if he wanted to succeed Cameron, he knew it would be on Cameron's terms, and both seemed to agree Cameron was the better front man and Osborne could handle detail).
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Tory apparatchiks must be flooding into North Norfolk from what I saw this morning to complete stage 2 of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy on Norman Lamb.The Tories are throwing the kitchen sink to guillotine him."Dark" Facebook ads is where the Tories magic money tree is going.Con 1-2 LD 13-8 .Is Norman's very high incumbency factor big enough to counter the purple to blue switchers and is he able to squeaze the Labour vote?
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

    Just incredible.

    What is incredible is that the Conservatives have not raised the economy as an issue.

    Lynton Crosby must have decided that the way to win was to focus on Brexit.

    Although Labour have a spend, spend, spend manifesto, perhaps the Conservatives felt vulnerable having borrowed more than any past government and pushed closing the deficit out to 2025 having missed the 2015 target to do so.
  • Options
    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    kle4 said:

    Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago)..
    The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..

    I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"

    I find you can predict the voting intention of the householder with 80% accuracy by looking at the garden.

    Once found a pristine garden, Jaguar in the drive, and a Union Jack flying up a flagpole.

    I didn't even bother knocking on the door.
    What about one where the garden has been turned into a bricked driveway, with sporadic weeds/grass growing out of the brickwork?
    Depends on whether there is an oil spot where a van is parked at night, or not.

  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    For the first time in a long time 100-124 is now the favorite majority spread on Betfair. Though I don't think it's driven by information, probably more by expectation.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,983

    Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago)..
    The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..

    I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"

    I find you can predict the voting intention of the householder with 80% accuracy by looking at the garden.

    Once found a pristine garden, Jaguar in the drive, and a Union Jack flying up a flagpole.

    I didn't even bother knocking on the door.
    So wealthy, patriotic people don't vote Labour?
    Many, many years ago we decided to canvass for the Liberals along a VERY wealthy stree in the area where I lived. Several times the householder escotted us off the premises.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    jonny83 said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Bobajob, myself, Mr. kle4 and others regularly discuss computer games. Indeed, I grow tired of those who look down on people into videogames.

    As I recall NickPalmer was recommending Endless Space 2 only last night. I believe the average gamer is now in their mid 30s - they grew up playing games, and they are a more fruitful market to pitch to, as they don't have to ask their parents to buy games for them.

    I've a day off, I think I might play some Doom, then start another run of Pillars of Eternity, then some relaxing XCOM2
    I'm 34 and play a lot of games mainly on the Xbox these days. Currently a lot of Overwatch Borderlands 2 and started a new Fallout 4 new playthrough.

    There are a lot of studies out there that it's actually quite beneficial to play videogames in terms of it being good for the brain. My dad who is 62 plays videogames on his PC.
    I've just bought Hearts of Iron IV.

    Want to play, but don't fully understand it yet and it's fiendishly complex.

    I'm trying to build up British armies in Kenya and Egypt ready for when it all kicks off in 1939, and go straight after Mussolini.
    I'm coming up for 62 and would like to start playing games on my laptop. I'm not remotely interested in the shoot 'em up variety and last time I played FIFA my 8 year old grandson beat me 11-0, largely due to me being down to eight men by half time (they don't seem to appreciate a tackle these days!)

    Would love to get started with a good war strategy game, what would you recommend for a beginner?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    Several of my older relatives enjoy a good racing game - you can get decent gamign wheels and pedals, and rather than the expense of gaming chair (my father's back was not really up for lowering himself into and getting up from the one we used to have)just get a custom wheel stand and do it from the comfort of a regular chair.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

    One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):

    http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

    Con: 350
    Lab: 224
    Lib: 8
    SNP: 45

    Con Maj 50
    There is certainly no "herding" in the SNP seat projection.It's Matt Singh 43 v Michael Thrasher 54.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744

    The Tory apparatchiks must be flooding into North Norfolk from what I saw this morning to complete stage 2 of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy on Norman Lamb.The Tories are throwing the kitchen sink to guillotine him."Dark" Facebook ads is where the Tories magic money tree is going.Con 1-2 LD 13-8 .Is Norman's very high incumbency factor big enough to counter the purple to blue switchers and is he able to squeaze the Labour vote?

    Some on here have said locals were good for LDs and that he might even get plenty of the UKIP vote. A lot of models have him down as 95+% certain to lose, but RCs for one has him holding.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    edited June 2017

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

    One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):

    http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

    Con: 350
    Lab: 224
    Lib: 8
    SNP: 45

    Con Maj 50
    Hmm. Carshalton a LD hold. 3 Lab gains in the southwest (Bristol East, and both plymouth seats).

    Also the people's republic of Brighton to expand to Kemptown (they almost got it last time)

    Edit

    Bad new for the LDs in Kemptown - wiki says they've already got 0 votes

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Kemptown_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    jonny83 said:

    Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.

    They all stopped at the Polling Station on the way back from last night's rave session, voted and are now in bed until 3pm as normal

    You have to remember that they are not normally seen in daylight hours :D:D
    Rave session?

    What is this 1996?
    For Corbynites it is 1976 - just read the manifesto
    No Beverley.It's 1973.Enjoy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLOth-BuCNY
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017
    Chameleon said:

    Well no, preferably I'd like those that have benefitted massively from the housing price boom, pensions boom, free education, free bus passes, free health and social care as well as a booming world economy which lead to massive job and wage growth to stop scrounging off the state. People over 60 have had 40 plus years to prepare for retirement, why must the young pay for their shoddy planning?

    They also grew up with rationing, national service, vastly less access to higher education, much more rudimentary health care, the cuban missle crisis, etc, are you sure you want to swap ?
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Johnny Vegas and Dave Gilmour are backing Labour.Tories have Jim Davidson.
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    Mr. kle4, XCOM 2 is a great game.

    Not heard of Endless Space.

    Incidentally, Dragon's Dogma (came out 5 years ago now...) is coming out for the PS4 in Autumn. I never got Dark Arisen (expanded version) so I may very well buy that.

    Also, looking forward to Kingdom Come Deliverance, an RPG set in 1403, Bohemia. There's an announcement being made tomorrow, which might well be the release date (it is set for 2017 release on PC and consoles).

    On games, a silly knight suggested picking one of the following during election coverage, and taking a shot when it happens:
    1) a pundit says it's a terrible night for the Tories
    2) the SNP lose a seat
    3) Tim Farron complains FPTP is unfair
    4) a Labour candidate/MP blames Corbyn

    You will be utterly wrecked by about 10.45 !!
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    Brom said:

    It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

    Just incredible.

    I agree largely, however we've become so used to the PM & Chancellor being best buddies and in total sync that it's quite nice going back to a time when the Chancellor is someone appointed by the PM to do a job who is replaceable rather than a friend who they once made a pact with.
    It's hardly new for PMs to appoint people for the longer term as Chancellor, or for Chancellors to have considerable power and importance for economic policy.

    Most Secretaries of State are there mainly to implement party policy, developing new policies through green papers and so on, and putting a bit of a personal gloss on things. If they are shuffled on after a couple of years it isn't totally ideal but it's no biggie really as someone else picks it up, and it's normally a pretty smooth transition.

    In contrast - and this has long been the case - if the Chancellor goes it's because there's something very wrong, and it signals a major shift in policy. The Budget is the Chancellor's budget, albeit working with the PM and others, and there's almost always a very clear economic and policy narrative to a Chancellor's time in office.

    I think you're suggesting that the Treasury used to be much more of a "normal" department, with an easy come, easy go approach to ministers. That simply isn't the case, and the physical location of Number 11 Downing Street is proof of the point.

    The absence of Hammond from May's inner circle is likely to be a real problem if he's still in post after the weekend (which he may not be). There seems to be a fundamental disconnect, which is particularly important given May has pretty poor grip of economic matters (she's much more comfortable on security).
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Johnny Vegas and Dave Gilmour are backing Labour.Tories have Jim Davidson.

    Tories have Kate Bush too.
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    kle4 said:

    The Tory apparatchiks must be flooding into North Norfolk from what I saw this morning to complete stage 2 of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy on Norman Lamb.The Tories are throwing the kitchen sink to guillotine him."Dark" Facebook ads is where the Tories magic money tree is going.Con 1-2 LD 13-8 .Is Norman's very high incumbency factor big enough to counter the purple to blue switchers and is he able to squeaze the Labour vote?

    Some on here have said locals were good for LDs and that he might even get plenty of the UKIP vote. A lot of models have him down as 95+% certain to lose, but RCs for one has him holding.
    I think the odds have it about right, maybe a bit long on Lamb. The most important fundamental factor is that it's a heavily Leave seat, and the Lib Dem national campaign must have had Lamb tearing his hair out in that respect (particularly as it COULD have been his campaign had the leadership contest gone his way). Additionally, the Tories didn't target last time but are now (hard), plus UKIP not standing.

    So I can see why models are pessimistic for him. On the other hand, the Tory candidate is a SPAD, selected only after the election was called. He compares really poorly with Lamb, who is very personally popular. The local elections were also fine for the yellows in the seat, and the presumption the UKIP vote will move en masse may well be flawed (Lamb has been endorsed by a UKIP councillor for example, and the LDs were gaining direct from UKIP in locals). The LDs have also responded in kind to Tory targeting - both campaigns are bigger than 2015. For those reasons he's very much in the game, albeit not quite favourite.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,744
    That page on COrbyn's shadow cabinet has a section on other articles on him, and under 'Leader of the Labour Party' has the following options

    Corbyn leadership, Chakrabarti Inquiry, Traingate, Leadership challenge 2016

    I enjoyed Traingate, but feel like it was less significant than those others.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Chameleon said:

    Well no, preferably I'd like those that have benefitted massively from the housing price boom, pensions boom, free education, free bus passes, free health and social care as well as a booming world economy which lead to massive job and wage growth to stop scrounging off the state. People over 60 have had 40 plus years to prepare for retirement, why must the young pay for their shoddy planning?

    They also grew up with rationing, national service, vastly less access to higher education, much more rudimentary health care, the cuban missle crisis, etc, are you sure you want to swap ?
    You'd have to be over 63 to have even been born when rationing was in effect.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Interesting Trump news this lunchtime. He'll probably wriggle out of it like slugs do but how he ever became POTUS is a mystery no less puzzing than how the US became so racist in their very recent history
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    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    2pm at my polling station turnout was 50% already; staff were amazed. Safe to say that there's no yoof here.
This discussion has been closed.