Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.
+1.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
Paddy Power reported in the Racing Post podcast that most of the bets they'd laid were for Labour. Of course, this might just reflect the prices on offer, with Tory-backers not seeing any merit in tying up stake money days in advance on a long odds-on shot.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Mrs Fox off to work, voting on the way.
Still undecided between Lab and LD. Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
One Lab, one undecided (prob Green) here. I’ve gone on a vote swap website and have agreed to vote Lab instead of LD, while someone else who normally votes Lab will vote LD. However we’re both in consitituencies the Tories should hold comfortably.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.
+1.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.
This. There is less skin in the game for the non Uni attending 50% this time than there was for the EU ref. Party politics is also a bigger turnoff than a direct question for them to answer like 'should we leave the EU?'.
50% of our youngsters did not turn into far left firebrands over a 6 week campaign, it's just ridiculous.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
I think Robert bet heavily on the LDs getting 12 seats @GE2015, he's hoping 2nd time lucky.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
Also: word of warning. If seats are to be swinging wildly all over the place tonight, I'd expect the exit poll to perhaps be a little less accurate than usual, possibly with both Con/Lab seats predictions having an error of +/- 20 seats.
That is the usual margin of error for the exit poll, I seem to remember from last time.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
She’s pretty obviously ill.
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.
+1.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.
There was a discussion yesterday about why young people seem more engaged now, maybe it's for exactly the same reasons the old are. Older yoi get the more politics becomes a real practical matter - if you own a house, taxation on earnings etc. More young people are facing practical political concerns too: dealing with the benefits system, struggling with zero hour or precarious contracts, struggling with housing. My FB has a lot of Labour noise linked to things they've experienced rather than abstract ideas about fairness and justice.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
I think Robert bet heavily on the LDs getting 12 seats @GE2015, he's hoping 2nd time lucky.
It's funny. In 2012 that was the lowest forecast on the site. This time around it's the highest.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
She’s pretty obviously ill.
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
She’s pretty obviously ill.
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.
Nick Robinson said she was 'taken ill' in a taxi on the way to a radio interview with him too. An indictment of London air pollution under the Tories.
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
But there was a reason why people like Cooper could not work with Corbyn. Milne, McDonnell & co are hugely divisive figures with overtly Marxist agendas. They are in charge behind the scenes. If that changes, then compromise is possible. If it doesn't, it's not. That's why Labour needs to take a deep breath, not make quick decisions.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
Indeed. Though come to think of it, wasn't there something odd early on about Theresa May's replacement for an interview?
There was a discussion yesterday about why young people seem more engaged now, maybe it's for exactly the same reasons the old are. Older yoi get the more politics becomes a real practical matter - if you own a house, taxation on earnings etc. More young people are facing practical political concerns too: dealing with the benefits system, struggling with zero hour or precarious contracts, struggling with housing. My FB has a lot of Labour noise linked to things they've experienced rather than abstract ideas about fairness and justice.
I don't see how things are much different for youngsters than 2015? The Corbyn message is better but not 43% turnout to 70% upwards better IMO
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
She’s pretty obviously ill.
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.
It's possible Abbott did not tell anyone she was ill. She likes being on the telly.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.
+1.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Mrs Fox off to work, voting on the way.
Still undecided between Lab and LD. Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
I never saw any of that. I saw her being found out for what she really is by the media.
Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?
In front of me in the queue was a (mid-twenties) lady in pyjamas who needed to be talked through how many boxes you could cross. Both charming, and good for democracy.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?
In front of me in the queue was a (mid-twenties) lady in pyjamas who needed to be talked through how many boxes you could cross. Both charming, and good for democracy.
That is a first time Tory voter. Guaranteed - SHE WANTS BREXIT
Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?
Colchester. Held by them until 2015 but I don't think they're fighting particularly hard. That said it is a strongly Lib Dem ward I'm in.
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?
In front of me in the queue was a (mid-twenties) lady in pyjamas who needed to be talked through how many boxes you could cross. Both charming, and good for democracy.
Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?
Colchester. Held by them until 2015 but I don't think they're fighting particularly hard. That said it is a strongly Lib Dem ward I'm in.
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
I was told by a senior resigner before the event that the parliamentary party was necrotising with Corbyn in charge. His leadership and administrative skills were non existant. He was changing policy on a whim not turning up for meetings and if he did being unprepared. In other words it couldn't have continued whoever had stayed in the shadow cabinet.
It's interesting but not surprising that the Abbott moment is the most remembered but if Corbyn had continued as he was doing pre-coup things would likely have been a good deal worse albeit in different ways
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
Y
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
She’s pretty obviously ill.
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.
It's possible Abbott did not tell anyone she was ill. She likes being on the telly.
Other than a pre-existing medical condition, one not untypical in ladies of her age or ethnicity, Abbott said in reply to the spoof email that she enjoys good health. I do hope she recovers quickly from her (diplomatic?) illness.
Looking at the chart in the header with all its contradictions surely polling companies are in big trouble, it seems after every election even more doubts are cast. I have my own theory which has got me in trouble in the past.
If you were to commission one of the pollsters who would it be? Not sure if they're complacent or simply unable to accurately monitor their database but the models are clearly flawed.
Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?
Colchester. Held by them until 2015 but I don't think they're fighting particularly hard. That said it is a strongly Lib Dem ward I'm in.
Go Battlin' Bob! His last hurrah.
In all honesty I can see Labour coming second to the Tories here. I did like Bob as a constituency MP though.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
The Morris Dancer prediction: Con majority 60-80 The octo-lemur prophecy (possibly taking the piss): Con majority 102
The Labour seat changes as compared to historical battlefield defeats of the Western Roman Empire list: -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury] -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion] -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers: +10 Zela +20 Tigranocerta +30 Zama
On-topic: I agree that kudos must be given for sticking their necks out. In Morley & Outwood, it's raining quite a bit and likely to continue for much of the day.
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
Just had a look at my fb feed for the last few days and to my surprise quite a few people 40 and younger, who were not particularly interested in politics waking up to the fact it's happening. They ask the question "are you voting for Corbyn" and almost universally their friends say "no way". Tend to come from WWC backgrounds as well. MOIWYW
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
I owe some thanks by the way. I commute in to London and usually vote after work to award myself ten minutes in bed; but I remembered the poster last year who almost didn't get back in time. Thanks, whoever it was, you roused me from my sleep.
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
2017 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab) 2015 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab) 2010 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab) 2005 - Broxtowe (Marginal Lab) 2001 - Broxtowe (Marginal Lab) 1997 - Darlington (Lab)
Never voted fpr the winning candidate! (In national or local elections) - Sorry NickP!
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
The Revenge of the Youthful Remainers is what woke me up in a cold sweat this morning.
It would be the perfect response to what the oldies did to them last June.
I think we'll have record turnout today and massive queues at polling stations etc. The young are angry.
Roll on this time tomorrow. I cannot stand the tension...
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
if we Baxter my prediction of 45-32-assign approximate figures to other parties and allow for a fall in Scotland, we get:
Con 373 Lab 205 SNP 39 Lib 11 Green 1 NI 18
I think the SNP figure is a bit low and Labour a bit high. But an approximate majority of 90-100 seems possible.
The key thing to remember is all polls are still showing the Tories in the 40s. If that's replicated in the final vote they will have a majority, especially as Labour are clearly still stuck in the thirties (in more ways than one)! The real question will be the size of it.
It will doubtless reassure all bedwetters to know I was wrong about Trump, Brexit, 2015, 2010. However, I was right about Corbyn.
Right - just off to vote. Turnout in Trafford expected to be down slightly - it's our special extra week of half term where we can take the kids on holiday and not pay summer holiday prices - pretty much all my daughters' schoolfreinds are away. Not that any of the Trafford seats are interesting enough for this to have an impact.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
That's odd. Have they all gone to Portsmouth?
No idea, in 2010 this area was awash with orange everywhere. Nothing this time.
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
1997: 4 months too young 2001: Bethnal Green & Bow 2005: One of the Lewishams, I think West 2010: Battersea 2012by: Croydon North 2015/2017: Greenwich & Woolwich
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
Yes, I think that's very fair. He's proven himself to be a competent campaigner. In the past I've described him as a poor salesman selling a poor message:
I was wrong. He's a competent salesman selling a poor message to idiots.
Whereas May comes out of this election as a poor sales manager who has just screwed up a product launch into an empty market.
But Corbyn's leadership skills still appear to be terrible. *If* we have PM Corbyn tomorrow morning, then it'll be interesting to see if he can avert chaos.
Right - just off to vote. Turnout in Trafford expected to be down slightly - it's our special extra week of half term where we can take the kids on holiday and not pay summer holiday prices - pretty much all my daughters' schoolfreinds are away. Not that any of the Trafford seats are interesting enough for this to have an impact.
How can you have an extra week of half term in the middle of GCSEs and A-levels? Genuine question.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
Comments
Conservatives to win 345+ seats, Labour fewer than 215, SNP fewer than 50, P. Cymru < 4, L Dems < 8 & turnout < 65.0%
Seems good value at 33/1
I put on a purple.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
C 390
Lab 200
Ld 12
SNP 45 possibly one ind in devon
However we’re both in consitituencies the Tories should hold comfortably.
He didn't realise that all that free stuff had to be paid for.
50% of our youngsters did not turn into far left firebrands over a 6 week campaign, it's just ridiculous.
To work!
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb
I think the biggest risk is the Lib Dems <8, I have become more optomistic over the last week.
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?
There was a discussion yesterday about why young people seem more engaged now, maybe it's for exactly the same reasons the old are. Older yoi get the more politics becomes a real practical matter - if you own a house, taxation on earnings etc. More young people are facing practical political concerns too: dealing with the benefits system, struggling with zero hour or precarious contracts, struggling with housing. My FB has a lot of Labour noise linked to things they've experienced rather than abstract ideas about fairness and justice.
I don't see how things are much different for youngsters than 2015? The Corbyn message is better but not 43% turnout to 70% upwards better IMO
My final prediction:
Con: 357
Lab: 219
LD: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 44
Speaker: 1
NI: 18
Tory Majority 64
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/872550006934433792
Then we'd see how many of the oldies cared about democracy.
I may be amenable for some exemptions.
It's interesting but not surprising that the Abbott moment is the most remembered but if Corbyn had continued as he was doing pre-coup things would likely have been a good deal worse albeit in different ways
If you were to commission one of the pollsters who would it be? Not sure if they're complacent or simply unable to accurately monitor their database but the models are clearly flawed.
2017 - Kingston &a Surbiton (Con/LD Marginal)
2015 - ditto
2010 - Vauxhall (safe Lab)
2005 - Hammersmith (Lab/Con marginal)
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
I am allowed an exemption.
Imagine being on at 1-10, that'd be uncomfortable.
2001 - Bath, Tory
2005 - Coventry South, Lib Dem
2010 - Sheffield Central, Tory
2015 - NE Derbyshire, Green
The Morris Dancer prediction: Con majority 60-80
The octo-lemur prophecy (possibly taking the piss): Con majority 102
The Labour seat changes as compared to historical battlefield defeats of the Western Roman Empire list:
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
On-topic: I agree that kudos must be given for sticking their necks out. In Morley & Outwood, it's raining quite a bit and likely to continue for much of the day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40196307
Edit to say - not least because of her anti-cycling views.
2015 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab)
2010 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab)
2005 - Broxtowe (Marginal Lab)
2001 - Broxtowe (Marginal Lab)
1997 - Darlington (Lab)
Never voted fpr the winning candidate! (In national or local elections) - Sorry NickP!
It would be the perfect response to what the oldies did to them last June.
I think we'll have record turnout today and massive queues at polling stations etc. The young are angry.
Roll on this time tomorrow. I cannot stand the tension...
Con 373
Lab 205
SNP 39
Lib 11
Green 1
NI 18
I think the SNP figure is a bit low and Labour a bit high. But an approximate majority of 90-100 seems possible.
The key thing to remember is all polls are still showing the Tories in the 40s. If that's replicated in the final vote they will have a majority, especially as Labour are clearly still stuck in the thirties (in more ways than one)! The real question will be the size of it.
It will doubtless reassure all bedwetters to know I was wrong about Trump, Brexit, 2015, 2010. However, I was right about Corbyn.
1992 Tayside North
1997 North Norfolk
2001 Ludlow
2005 Ludlow
2010 Ludlow
2015 Ludlow
2017 Ludlow
6 votes for LD/SDP and one for SNP. Today I'll be voting for something different...
2001/2005 - Kensington and Chelsea
2010 - Tatton
2012 - Manchester Central (by election)
2015/2017 - Sheffield Hallam
SNP support slumps to 39 per cent as 61 per cent of voters reject independence while Labour pulls ahead of Tories in Scotland.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/daily-record-eve-voting-poll-10581625.amp
2001: Bethnal Green & Bow
2005: One of the Lewishams, I think West
2010: Battersea
2012by: Croydon North
2015/2017: Greenwich & Woolwich
I was wrong. He's a competent salesman selling a poor message to idiots.
Whereas May comes out of this election as a poor sales manager who has just screwed up a product launch into an empty market.
But Corbyn's leadership skills still appear to be terrible. *If* we have PM Corbyn tomorrow morning, then it'll be interesting to see if he can avert chaos.
http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/1/590x/BrexitCensureHoeyVoter-716427.jpg