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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017 right?
With just one firm still to publish, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard, the above Wikipedia list looks like the almost final polling table of 2017.
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https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/872621685576433665
Well done to ICM and Survation. You might both be wrong and the answer lies somewhere in the middle but you were both brave enough to stick by your guns.
The less said about the YouGov "model", the better.
In all seriousness, here is my prediction
C 365
L 201
LD 13
SNP 49
O 22
Tory majority 78
C 345
L 223
LD 14
O 21
SNP 47
Good times...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/07/your-sortable-searchable-pb-guide-to-labours-top-80-con-targets-in-england-and-wales
As everyone else is making predictions I shall join in
Cons 337
Lab 241
LD 6
SNP 45
NI 18
Pc 2
Green 1
Almost status quo ante bellum, 2 months of article 50 time wasted for very little gain.
Anyway, I made the right choice that day, shame many others didn't.
Most importantly, tell everyone to vote, this democracy thing is important!
A calm day so far.
Con Majority now 1.18 on Betfair (cue hundreds of comments about NOM being 1.12 at this point in 2015!) and Spreadex mid point now up to 370 Con seats.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
https://www.spreadex.com/sports/mobile/page/spr/573773/1/2335564
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Qatar Airways are massively inconvenienced, they're losing all the Gulf regional traffic and as you say are having to make some epic diversions to get anywhere to the south. Was supposed to be flying with them DXB>DOH>LHR in a couple of weeks but have had to rebook on another airline.
https://mobile.twitter.com/flightradar24/status/871912194253889536
The more interesting stuff begins on 9th June. This election has seen perceptions of May change markedly. That will have longer term consequences, both here in the UK and for the Brexit negotiations.
On topic: Survation certainly have piled all their chips on Red for this one. As well as being the only BPC pollster showing a virtual tie, their final Scotland-only poll has Lab 3% ahead of Con.
If Survation are close to the right result and we're into Hung Parliament territory, then they're not only picking up something really important that most of the others aren't, but also the result will run contrary to the mood music coming from most of the focus groups, canvassing returns, and the patterns of the two leaders' campaign visits as well.
Moreover, a result of approximately 40 Con:40 Lab would require an enormous surge from young and non-voters; the majority of Ukip defectors to cross to Lab, not Con; a significant net direct flow of voters from Con to Lab; or, most likely, a combination of the first factor with one of the other two. It just smells terrible.
At the other end of the spectrum, BMG - with a landslide-inducing 13% Tory lead - are, apparently, Labour's house pollster for this election. Something's gotta give...
UKGE .. Sampling 7am-10pm - Size 31,023,731 ..
That post did leave me thinking that something may up. But I am still thinking how can Corbyn win/Labour be the largest party in a hung parliament/Con minority with 65+ going so heavily for Con, Kippers going so heavily for Con, and inevitable losses in the Midlands and the North (like you say) for Labour?
So we'll see what happens, but I'd be shocked if it isn't Con majority.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
Think of it this way, it's about as likely as cutting a pack of cards and not getting a spade.
However let's take Herder's Con 325 figure and briefly examine it. Take the Con base point and add a few not unreasonable gains in Scotalnd. So 335. This means in England and Wales Con will overall lose 10 seats. Does that seem in anyway a viable prospect.
No.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
We just don't know.
Lib Dems, I think, will do a little better than expected.
Also: word of warning. If seats are to be swinging wildly all over the place tonight, I'd expect the exit poll to perhaps be a little less accurate than usual, possibly with both Con/Lab seats predictions having an error of +/- 20 seats.
That's where Crosby/Messina (should) make the difference, on the Tory upside.
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352
1. More (probably significantly more) 2015 voters will cross directly from Con to Lab than from Lab to Con
2. There will be an enormous spike in turnout amongst voters in the 18-30 age range, *and* virtually all of them will back Labour
3. Conversely, older voters will abstain in historically unprecedented numbers
4. Either Ukip will miraculously fail to collapse or, if it does, most of its ex-voters will back Labour rather than the Conservatives
5. Related to 4, there will be no differential swing across the country, merely a uniform surge in the Labour vote (and, by extension, the vast bulk of non-polling opinion such as from canvass returns and focus groups, which shows Labour struggling in most of England outside of inner London and a few other metropolitan cores, will be shown to be totally invalid.)
6. The remnants of the Liberal Democrat vote have, amazingly, become so powerfully concentrated geographically that they make a successful defence of all their Tory-facing seats, *and* recover a substantial fraction of their 2015 losses
It's the sort of thing that, if you really want to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power, your inner chimp might have a panic attack about. But logically, I don't see how there's any meaningful probability of a Hung Parliament coming to pass under today's circumstances. You might just as well worry about dying from being struck by a stray meteorite: this would both be theoretically possible and self-evidently a catastrophe, but how many of us stop to fret over it?
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
There does seem to be more agreement in the modellers:
Electoral Calculus Con 361
Britain ELects Con 357
Hanratty Con 371
She has managed to embarrass at least 60% of our finest pollsters
Although there are indeed plenty of reasons to be doubtful about the Tories, it is hard to see what would lead to last minute desertions by people who, if the polls are right, have been loyal so far? Concerns about Brexit haven't coloured the election at all, and the only last minute question is the police numbers debate, which I don't think has the traction.
Oh and I worry about stray meteorites all the time but mainly when Horizon does a programme about the Kuiper belt!
I remember how Ashcroft's marginal polls were so disastrously wrong last time - that's why I'm not rushing to hold up his forecast as the total gospel.
The irony is, is that YouGov's polling model is probably the future of the polling industry, but they've made themselves look so silly in this GE no matter the result, especially with that methodology change last night!
C 355 (44%)
Lab 225 (36%)
SNP 45
Other GB 7
NI 18
I think the chances of a Tory lead of 10+ tonight are good. That is only a modest swing from 2015 but the same trends we saw then (Labour doing well in the larger cities, not so much elsewhere) seem exacerbated this time and that may well cost them.
In years to come people will be asking
"Where were you when you first read David's post......"
As a rough estimate, if an extra million younger people turnout at this time *and* they all voted Labour, it would be worth about a 3% boost to Labour's final share. Clearly the fewer additional youngsters bother, and the more of them vote Conservative (NB another possible source of Shy Tories - for how many young people would voting Conservative be a source of social shame and/or abuse?), the more marginal the effect becomes.
Quote from the BBC. ‘Several pupils from a school in Canvey Island have scored highly in a Mensa Genius Test.”
In the high 150’s; one at least 160 plus.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
Keeping my inner Labour Government catastrophe chimp under control for these last several weeks has been rather difficult. The end of this campaign, provided that it results in any kind of working Conservative majority, will be an enormous relief.
Con 387
Lab 178
SNP 48
LD 13
PC 4
Green 1
plus Mr Speaker and the NI contingent.
Back this evening at some point...
For Labour it's a classic impasse. Corbyn the campaigner has been vindicated on the campaign trail, saving them from utter disaster, with Corbyn's radicalism making him the 'change' candidate in a way that Owen Smith would never have achieved. Yet his detractors will argue that Labour wouldn't have started so low in the polls without him, will see Labour losing seats in opposition as obvious bad rather than good news, and wonder whether under someone else the arrogant complacent shambles that has been May's campaign might have been beaten?
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Con 43.00
Lab 36.50
LD 7.60
UKIP 4.30
Tory Lead 6.50
For me this youth increase is mostly noise created by those who voted in 2015 and those 14-17 year olds who cannot vote. 18-24 WON'T top 60%, I just don't see any evidence that it is engaging the youth as much as the EU ref beyond a couple of very questionable polls.
Never seen that before, but then again I've never voted at this polling station so early.
Still undecided between Lab and LD. Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
What ever your political persuasion good luck (even if I may wish a miserable fate on your national party!)
Polling stations have opened.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.