Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
That's odd. Have they all gone to Portsmouth?
Are you a recognised Tory voter, national and local? If so then they are not wasting the paper. I've heard a lot of reports that the lib Dems have given up and had a look under the surface, through twitter searches and the occasional contact to find that is not the case. Although I can't recall farron visiting which may be more telling
The bigger worry for pollsters is that the one who is right is right by accident? For five years everyone will assume that their adjustments must be the *correct* ones to make, then next time things will turn out differently once again.
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
But there was a reason why people like Cooper could not work with Corbyn. Milne, McDonnell & co are hugely divisive figures with overtly Marxist agendas. They are in charge behind the scenes. If that changes, then compromise is possible. If it doesn't, it's not. That's why Labour needs to take a deep breath, not make quick decisions.
I agree Labour should take a breath, but hopefully today's result will at least demonstrate the potential of putting a bold agenda on the table.
1987 City of Durham 1992 and 1997 Lewisham East 2001-date Islington South & Finsbury
This is the first time my vote is in a marginal due to urban-rural lab/Tory drift. It is actually slightly uncomfortable compared to being in a safe seat where powerlessness means you can blame everyone else !
Edit: Forgot Sheff Central was a marginal - Lib/Lab though so less crucial.
This. There is less skin in the game for the non Uni attending 50% this time than there was for the EU ref. Party politics is also a bigger turnoff than a direct question for them to answer like 'should we leave the EU?'.
50% of our youngsters did not turn into far left firebrands over a 6 week campaign, it's just ridiculous.
Tbh, a lot of those who support Corbyn are not 'far-left firebrands' either. Most of my friends support him, but I would never say that they are far left. The trouble is, they don't see Corbyn as far-left. They feel that any depictions of him as extreme are 'lies from the Tory press.'
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
That's odd. Have they all gone to Portsmouth?
No idea, in 2010 this area was awash with orange everywhere. Nothing this time.
Putting an Eastleigh postcode into the LibDem "where to help" website and it says stay in Eastleigh, but a Southampton postcode is sent to Portsmouth. So the latter must be priority.
Right - just off to vote. Turnout in Trafford expected to be down slightly - it's our special extra week of half term where we can take the kids on holiday and not pay summer holiday prices - pretty much all my daughters' schoolfreinds are away. Not that any of the Trafford seats are interesting enough for this to have an impact.
How can you have an extra week of half term in the middle of GCSEs and A-levels? Genuine question.
Maybe it's primary schools only? That's probably it.
1979 - Durham (safe Labour) 1983 - Birmingham Edgbaston (then, safe Con - Dame Jill Knight) 1987 - Birmingham Yardley (then, always went with the Govt. - stayed Con for the last time) 1992 - Dulwich (marginal Con --> Labour - Tessa Jowell) 1997 - Reading West (marginal Con --> Labour) 2001 - Wantage (safe Con - Ed Vaizey) 2006 - Wantage 2010 - Wantage 2015 - Totnes (now a super-safe Con - Dr. Sarah Wollaston) 2017 - Totnes
1987 City of Durham 1992 and 1997 Lewisham East 2001-date Islington South & Finsbury
This is the first time my vote is in a marginal due to urban-rural lab/Tory drift. It is actually slightly uncomfortable compared to being in a safe seat where powerlessness means you can blame everyone else !
Edit: Forgot Sheff Central was a marginal - Lib/Lab though so less crucial.
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's something of a tragedy that This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
But there was a reason why people like Cooper could not work with Corbyn. Milne, McDonnell & co are hugely divisive figures with overtly Marxist agendas. They are in charge behind the scenes. If that changes, then compromise is possible. If it doesn't, it's not. That's why Labour needs to take a deep breath, not make quick decisions.
I agree Labour should take a breath, but hopefully today's result will at least demonstrate the potential of putting a bold agenda on the table.
Putting something bold on the table is only a positive if one thinks that boldness is a good idea. It's like bring principled, it's nothing to praise if the principles are not sound.
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
1997: 4 months too young 2001: Bethnal Green & Bow 2005: One of the Lewishams, I think West 2010: Battersea 2012by: Croydon North 2015/2017: Greenwich & Woolwich
1945- SE Essex. Lab held. First election remembered. Too young to vote 1959 (ist vote) -1979: SE Essex.... Con 1983-2001: Castle Point Con (x3) then Lab-Con 2005-2010. Braintree Lab then Con 2015- Witham Con.
Civic duty done, and I surprised myself with my eventual choice. History 1992 Southampton Test (now in Romsey and Southampton North) 1997 south Norfolk 2001 Witham 2005 mid Norfolk 2010 mid Norfolk 2015 Broadland 2017 South Norwich Morning and merry Christmas all
I owe some thanks by the way. I commute in to London and usually vote after work to award myself ten minutes in bed; but I remembered the poster last year who almost didn't get back in time. Thanks, whoever it was, you roused me from my sleep.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.
+1.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.
I think it will be up fro 44 to 50%. a 6% increase, thats what cleggasm got.
This. There is less skin in the game for the non Uni attending 50% this time than there was for the EU ref. Party politics is also a bigger turnoff than a direct question for them to answer like 'should we leave the EU?'.
50% of our youngsters did not turn into far left firebrands over a 6 week campaign, it's just ridiculous.
Tbh, a lot of those who support Corbyn are not 'far-left firebrands' either. Most of my friends support him, but I would never say that they are far left. The trouble is, they don't see Corbyn as far-left. They feel that any depictions of him as extreme are 'lies from the Tory press.'
Perhaps though if he had a touch less baggage and a bit more Trudeau to go with the policies he would be casting his net a fair amount wider.
I'm expecting queues and a party atmosphere at polling stations in Brixton, Hackney, Dalston, New Cross and Peckham tonight, and it won't impact the result a jot.
My wife's telling at local university in polling district where 30% of those on register are students. It'll interesting to hear what their turnout appears to be like.
Civic duty done, and I surprised myself with my eventual choice. History 1992 Southampton Test (now in Romsey and Southampton North) 1997 south Norfolk 2001 Witham 2005 mid Norfolk 2010 mid Norfolk 2015 Broadland 2017 South Norwich Morning and merry Christmas all
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
I don't understand feeling sorry for her for anything other than if she has been the subject of racist insults. Otherwise, she is a very experienced politician who was presenting as the prospective Home Secretary, and the criticisms she faced were entirely to do with her ability to do the job and based off factual past statements and her own mistakes.
I'm travelling most of today, getting back from Germany hence a postal ballot. Hope to be back just before 10.00 pm. Glad to be away from the febrile atmosphere for a while. I must admit I'm a bit concerned about the young remainers but don't think they have the numbers
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The changed.
The worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's party.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
But there was a reason why people like Cooper could not work with Corbyn. Milne, McDonnell & co are hugely divisive figures with overtly Marxist agendas. They are in charge behind the scenes. If that changes, then compromise is possible. If it doesn't, it's not. That's why Labour needs to take a deep breath, not make quick decisions.
I agree Labour should take a breath, but hopefully today's result will at least demonstrate the potential of putting a bold agenda on the table.
That is Corbyn's main lesson. Labour must not be afraid to be bold. It cannot spend its time second-guessing right wing newspapers that will be hostile whatever it does. At the same time, though, Labour cannot win if those selling its message are seen as weak on security and unpatriotic. There are things for both sides to learn and absorb. And there is no need for a challenge to Corbyn right now. Labour is about to become completely irrelevant. The party should use that luxury wisely. The Tories will own it all tomorrow and it will all be about them delivering on the promises they have made.
By the way the last nights YouGOV changed ot's methodology. They re-allocated don't know's to their preferred choice of PM. this widened to tory lead to 7%.
They did not stick to their guns like Survation. And you know what it makes sense.
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
Same - here voted at 7.30, only the third to have voted.
Horrible day out there though, weather-wise. A day to stay in on the PlayStation and then - ooh look, its gone 10 pm....
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
That's odd. Have they all gone to Portsmouth?
Are you a recognised Tory voter, national and local? If so then they are not wasting the paper. I've heard a lot of reports that the lib Dems have given up and had a look under the surface, through twitter searches and the occasional contact to find that is not the case. Although I can't recall farron visiting which may be more telling
That reminds me of my first win; we made a lot of effort to identify all the active Tories and made sure they weren't canvassed and, as best we could, not delivered anything either. I will always remember the Tories at the count expressing amazement at my win given that they "hardly saw us doing anything at all" during the election. It just proved to me that Tory activists don't speak to their neighbours.
Yougov in its final poll has the Tories doing equally well with ABC1 and C2DE voters on 42% each, Labour does slightly better with ABC1s getting 36% with them and 35% with C2DEs, the LDs do significantly better with with ABC1s getting 12% with them to 7% for C2DEs, UKIP do better with ABC1s getting 3% with them 8% with C2DEs, the SNP and Plaid also do slightly better with C2DEs getting 5% with them and 4% with ABC1s and the Greens the their score with ABC1s and C2DEs on 2% each https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/final-call-poll-tories-seven-points-and-set-increa/
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.
This. There is less skin in the game for the non Uni attending 50% this time than there was for the EU ref. Party politics is also a bigger turnoff than a direct question for them to answer like 'should we leave the EU?'.
50% of our youngsters did not turn into far left firebrands over a 6 week campaign, it's just ridiculous.
Tbh, a lot of those who support Corbyn are not 'far-left firebrands' either. Most of my friends support him, but I would never say that they are far left. The trouble is, they don't see Corbyn as far-left. They feel that any depictions of him as extreme are 'lies from the Tory press.'
Perhaps though if he had a touch less baggage and a bit more Trudeau to go with the policies he would be casting his net a fair amount wider.
I'm expecting queues and a party atmosphere at polling stations in Brixton, Hackney, Dalston, New Cross and Peckham tonight, and it won't impact the result a jot.
Yes, I'm a big fan of Trudeau. If tumblr could create a politician from scratch, that politician would probably be like Trudeau.
There might not be any need for a change of Labour leader, I reckon unless Labour end up as the largest party, there'll be a leadership challenge by Sunday.
Civic duty done, and I surprised myself with my eventual choice. History 1992 Southampton Test (now in Romsey and Southampton North) 1997 south Norfolk 2001 Witham 2005 mid Norfolk 2010 mid Norfolk 2015 Broadland 2017 South Norwich Morning and merry Christmas all
I owe some thanks by the way. I commute in to London and usually vote after work to award myself ten minutes in bed; but I remembered the poster last year who almost didn't get back in time. Thanks, whoever it was, you roused me from my sleep.
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.
And it’s for Labour! Oh, and they voted Remain!
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.
+1.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.
I think it will be up fro 44 to 50%. a 6% increase, thats what cleggasm got.
I'll go 55 - I don't remember quite so much intensity en with the cleggasm, and I think being only a year out from the referendum means angry young people will remember to vote more.,
By the way the last nights YouGOV changed ot's methodology. They re-allocated don't know's to their preferred choice of PM. this widened to tory lead to 7%.
They did not stick to their guns like Survation. And you know what it makes sense.
It's almost as if they have used the last two weeks to build their name recognition and then the final poll to say that they called it right.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
There might not be any need for a change of Labour leader, I reckon unless Labour end up as the largest party, there'll be a leadership challenge by Sunday.
I think if labour are on 200-230 seats Corbyn is safe. They don't have it in them to challenge him if he does 'ok', and the surge in their vote would convince them he'd win a challenge. Under 200 and I think he goes to avoid a challenge that splits the party.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
You can still get 15/2 Lib Dems Manchester Withington.
Vauxhall does NOT carry across to anywhere else in the entire country. The sitting MP is a hardcore Labour brexiteer in one of the most diverse and liberal constituencies in the country. It is unique.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
You can still get 15/2 Lib Dems Manchester Withington.
Vauxhall does NOT carry across to anywhere else in the entire country. The sitting MP is a hardcore Labour brexiteer in one of the most diverse and liberal constituencies in the country. It is unique.
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
Same - here voted at 7.30, only the third to have voted.
Horrible day out there though, weather-wise. A day to stay in on the PlayStation and then - ooh look, its gone 10 pm....
You sneering at the young people Mark? I can only imagine your comment in a C. Montgomery Burns accent.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
If the SNP really are down to 38% and labour on 29% then a swathe of the central belt must start to turn red. I wouldn't be suprised if there is a Corbyn surge here.
And Tories will still make some big gains from the SNP on 26%. It's a good thing tory and labour support in Scotland are in distinct areas, they can both make significant gains without letting the SNP through the middle too much. and even the Libdems will GAIN at least 2 seats.
There might not be any need for a change of Labour leader, I reckon unless Labour end up as the largest party, there'll be a leadership challenge by Sunday.
I think if labour are on 200-230 seats Corbyn is safe. They don't have it in them to challenge him if he does 'ok', and the surge in their vote would convince them he'd win a challenge. Under 200 and I think he goes to avoid a challenge that splits the party.
After last time's cock up they will surely take a bit of time to plan, co-ordinate and take soundings? Acting by the weekend would be idiotic, unless they plan to leave and set up a new party.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
You can still get 15/2 Lib Dems Manchester Withington.
Vauxhall does NOT carry across to anywhere else in the entire country. The sitting MP is a hardcore Labour brexiteer in one of the most diverse and liberal constituencies in the country. It is unique.
Tories coming out to vote. Like a scene from Sean of the Dead.
No that used to be mid afternoon when the Tories rounded them up from the care homes, before extended postal votes. I was amazed at the number of little old ladies would slide up to me telling for the lib Dems whispering " I took their lift because he's a nice young man with a smart car but voted for you"
By the way the last nights YouGOV changed ot's methodology. They re-allocated don't know's to their preferred choice of PM. this widened to tory lead to 7%.
They did not stick to their guns like Survation. And you know what it makes sense.
It's almost as if they have used the last two weeks to build their name recognition and then the final poll to say that they called it right.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.
My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
What's a vote-swap vote?
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
By the way the last nights YouGOV changed ot's methodology. They re-allocated don't know's to their preferred choice of PM. this widened to tory lead to 7%.
They did not stick to their guns like Survation. And you know what it makes sense.
It's almost as if they have used the last two weeks to build their name recognition and then the final poll to say that they called it right.
It's thoroughly despicable.
And they gave their model to cover other eventualities too.
My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
What's a vote-swap vote?
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
1987 - Newark - Richard Alexander 1992 - Newark - Richard Alexander 1997 - Newark - Richard Alexander 2001 - Newark - Patrick Mercer 2005 - Newark - Charlotte Creasy 2010 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Roger Doughty 2015 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Steven Hopkins 2016 - Sleaford & N Hykeham (By-Election) - Caroline Johnson 2017 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Caroline Johnson
There might not be any need for a change of Labour leader, I reckon unless Labour end up as the largest party, there'll be a leadership challenge by Sunday.
I think if labour are on 200-230 seats Corbyn is safe. They don't have it in them to challenge him if he does 'ok', and the surge in their vote would convince them he'd win a challenge. Under 200 and I think he goes to avoid a challenge that splits the party.
After last time's cock up they will surely take a bit of time to plan, co-ordinate and take soundings? Acting by the weekend would be idiotic, unless they plan to leave and set up a new party.
I'm uncertain how quickly they will move. If it looks like a split, which I dont think is on the cards as the labour brand is even stronger than anyone thought, Corbyn might go Quickly to throw a spanner in the works,
By the way the last nights YouGOV changed ot's methodology. They re-allocated don't know's to their preferred choice of PM. this widened to tory lead to 7%.
They did not stick to their guns like Survation. And you know what it makes sense.
It's almost as if they have used the last two weeks to build their name recognition and then the final poll to say that they called it right.
It's thoroughly despicable.
@Casino_Royale can sue for cruel and unusual punishment.
By the way the last nights YouGOV changed ot's methodology. They re-allocated don't know's to their preferred choice of PM. this widened to tory lead to 7%.
They did not stick to their guns like Survation. And you know what it makes sense.
It's almost as if they have used the last two weeks to build their name recognition and then the final poll to say that they called it right.
It's thoroughly despicable.
And they gave their model to cover other eventualities too.
Obviously I don't want this to happen, but it would be funny if Survation come up trumps and You Gov were actually close all along.
I don't think either of those two are exactly Einstein.
Understatement of the year. I always say we are poorly served by our politicians but we are equally poorly served by our media - with a few honourable exceptions in both cases.
Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The sheep have already voted?
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
Yes, I think that's very fair. He's proven himself to be a competent campaigner. In the past I've described him as a poor salesman selling a poor message:
I was wrong. He's a competent salesman selling a poor message to idiots.
Whereas May comes out of this election as a poor sales manager who has just screwed up a product launch into an empty market.
But Corbyn's leadership skills still appear to be terrible. *If* we have PM Corbyn tomorrow morning, then it'll be interesting to see if he can avert chaos.
Poor messages don't seem to be a barrier. Truthfully, I don't think a Corbyn premiership is more damaging than Brexit and Trump, both of which are happening. He won't be PM however.
On the topic, I have doubts about Survation's methodology on turnout. I am uncomfortable about ICM applying a Labour discount because they never do as well as they poll. ICM may coincidentally hit the right figures, but the approach lacks rigour IMO. The other polls suggest a majority of some kind, which is the main thing from a Conservative POV
My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
What's a vote-swap vote?
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.
But how does he get two votes?
He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.
The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats Lab 34%, 203 seats SNP 4%, 42 seats LD 11%, 12 seats UKIP, 3%, 0 seats Green 2%, 0 seats PC, 3 seats
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!
Not true.
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S Edinburgh West Fife NE East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale North Norfolk Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list: Argyll & Bute Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Ives Bath Cheltenham Eastbourne Lewes OxWAb
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.
You can still get 15/2 Lib Dems Manchester Withington.
Vauxhall does NOT carry across to anywhere else in the entire country. The sitting MP is a hardcore Labour brexiteer in one of the most diverse and liberal constituencies in the country. It is unique.
Comments
1992 and 1997 Lewisham East
2001-date Islington South & Finsbury
Good luck to MI5 with their work thwarting the people today.
1997 - Hertsmere, Tory
2001 - Hertsmere, Tory
2005 - Hertsmere, Tory
2010 - Hertsmere, Tory
2015 - Hertsmere, UKIP
2017 - Hertsmere, ??
If I was 10 years older I would at least have had the chance to vote in South Hertfordshire.
Edit: Forgot Sheff Central was a marginal - Lib/Lab though so less crucial.
1979 - Durham (safe Labour)
1983 - Birmingham Edgbaston (then, safe Con - Dame Jill Knight)
1987 - Birmingham Yardley (then, always went with the Govt. - stayed Con for the last time)
1992 - Dulwich (marginal Con --> Labour - Tessa Jowell)
1997 - Reading West (marginal Con --> Labour)
2001 - Wantage (safe Con - Ed Vaizey)
2006 - Wantage
2010 - Wantage
2015 - Totnes (now a super-safe Con - Dr. Sarah Wollaston)
2017 - Totnes
I've never had trouble blaming everyone else.
1959 (ist vote) -1979: SE Essex.... Con
1983-2001: Castle Point Con (x3) then Lab-Con
2005-2010. Braintree Lab then Con
2015- Witham Con.
1997 - Somerton & Frome
2001/05/10 - Yeovil
2015/17 - Southampton Test
History
1992 Southampton Test (now in Romsey and Southampton North)
1997 south Norfolk
2001 Witham
2005 mid Norfolk
2010 mid Norfolk
2015 Broadland
2017 South Norwich
Morning and merry Christmas all
1997 Fife NE
2001/5/10/15/17 Alyn & Deeside.
Pretty unremarkable on the face of it.
Today is the first time my vote will matter as A&D now almost marginal and no 39 on blue target list.
I'm expecting queues and a party atmosphere at polling stations in Brixton, Hackney, Dalston, New Cross and Peckham tonight, and it won't impact the result a jot.
I'm in Bedford with CON majority of 1053.
I'm travelling most of today, getting back from Germany hence a postal ballot. Hope to be back just before 10.00 pm. Glad to be away from the febrile atmosphere for a while. I must admit I'm a bit concerned about the young remainers but don't think they have the numbers
They did not stick to their guns like Survation. And you know what it makes sense.
Horrible day out there though, weather-wise. A day to stay in on the PlayStation and then - ooh look, its gone 10 pm....
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history
2010 - Thirsk and Melton
2015 - Vauxhall
2017 - Dulwich and West Norwood
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/final-call-poll-tories-seven-points-and-set-increa/
Tories coming out to vote. Like a scene from Sean of the Dead.
Just regular voters...
Or sluggish. Maybe steady.
And Tories will still make some big gains from the SNP on 26%. It's a good thing tory and labour support in Scotland are in distinct areas, they can both make significant gains without letting the SNP through the middle too much. and even the Libdems will GAIN at least 2 seats.
1997 In Taiwan DNV.
2001-05 Bolton NE.
2010-now Hexham.
Shocking day for it up here. Ultra safe, so no matter though,
Has happened. Not often, though!
1987 - Newark - Richard Alexander
1992 - Newark - Richard Alexander
1997 - Newark - Richard Alexander
2001 - Newark - Patrick Mercer
2005 - Newark - Charlotte Creasy
2010 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Roger Doughty
2015 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Steven Hopkins
2016 - Sleaford & N Hykeham (By-Election) - Caroline Johnson
2017 - Sleaford & N Hykeham - Caroline Johnson
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264
On the topic, I have doubts about Survation's methodology on turnout. I am uncomfortable about ICM applying a Labour discount because they never do as well as they poll. ICM may coincidentally hit the right figures, but the approach lacks rigour IMO. The other polls suggest a majority of some kind, which is the main thing from a Conservative POV
Con 44
Lab 33
LD 9
UKIP 3
Con - 380
Lab - 205
LD - 6
UKIP - 0
SNP - 40
Green - 1
At least that's what I think. Maybe a bit high for Con and a bit low for Lab.