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The baker who speak broken English, and took them on with a bread basket, is awesome. The Home Office should deliver him a British Passport straightaway.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well the Millwall supporter was by that time probably more concerned about having been stabbed in the chest and stomach.Roger said:Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.0 -
Tightening however. Be interesting to see what YouGov and Survation show.Black_Rook said:Not sure if anyone's posted this yet:
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872526048008777730
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
Damian Lyons said on DP that all the pollsters have broadly the same raw numbers, it is turnout weighting/spiral of shame etc etc that is causing the divergence.0 -
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:0 -
I'm happy I closed off at 13, having sold at 19. £120 not to be sniffed at.AndyJS said:I still think the LDs could win 15 seats or thereabouts. They may not lose any, and could pick up 3 or 4 seats from the SNP, 2 or 3 from the Tories, and 1 or 2 from Labour.
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Late anti-Green swing? Seems a bit harsh.Scott_P said:@PickardJE: Final Panelbase GB-wide election poll, sample size 3,018.
CON 44 (NC)
LAB 36 (NC)
LD 7 (NC)
UKIP 5 (NC)
GRN 2 (-1)0 -
what's happening in 6 weeks? A big move?FrancisUrquhart said:
Waiting for 008 to announce challenge accepted!!!rcs1000 said:
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.Charles said:
I can help you solve that problem ...rcs1000 said:Serious question for tomorrow:
What's everyone drinking?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.0 -
Martin Boon is the boss of ICM Isn't he? In which case I am not sure he would be promoting polls that would make his own company look utterly useless just a few minutes after they have posted a 12 point lead. .Big_G_NorthWales said:
You gov and survation labour leads ?Casino_Royale said:0 -
To be honest I think it is irresponsible - just publish whatever is knownnumbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Indeed.williamglenn said:
If Solihull is in play then perhaps the Lib Dems could surprise us in a lot of other former Tory/LD marginals. If it's a bad night for the Tories it could be the difference between a majority and falling short.Casino_Royale said:I've just had a £5 on Solihull at 22/1 with PP.
If Theresa May and Farron are visiting it the day before the election, then it isn't 22/1.
Remember how in 2015 everyone thought Con needed a 10% to 11% lead for a majority.
But they got a majority with a 6.6% lead because of LD wipe-out.
If LD now recover, then it's possible Con will again need a bigger lead for a majority.
OK, Lab vote could be less efficient but if everything else stayed the same it would make bar for Con Maj much higher.
Of course could all be nonsense - if Con is nationally up say 5% on 2015 and LDs are flat then is it really realistic for LD to make many gains from Con?0 -
Greens to double their MPs?numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Here's my prediction (vote share in brackets)
Conservatives - 379 (44.8%)
Labour - 201 (35.1%)
SNP - 45 (6.9%)
Lib Dems - 5 (9.1%)
Plaid - 1 (0.3%)
Ukip - 0 (2.5%)
Green - 0 (1.5%)
NI - 18 (2.1%)
Speaker - 1 (0.1%)
Others - 0 (0.9%)
Turnout - 68%0 -
Nice acronym!Bobajob_PB said:If it's prediction time:
BUM (Bobajob's Universal Methodology)
CON 374
LAB 198
LIB 12
SNP 43
NIR 18
PLC 4
GRN 1
CON MAJORITY = 98 (I think)0 -
must be - YouGov going chips all in on a Lab lead?numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Well done. 13 would see me +60 or so.Casino_Royale said:
I'm happy I closed off at 13, having sold at 19. £120 not to be sniffed at.AndyJS said:I still think the LDs could win 15 seats or thereabouts. They may not lose any, and could pick up 3 or 4 seats from the SNP, 2 or 3 from the Tories, and 1 or 2 from Labour.
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If anyone has the stomach for it, Tommy Robinson posted a low quality video of the three terrorists being taken down by the police about an hour ago. It's on Twitter. I won't link to it here.ThomasNashe said:
The baker who speak broken English, and took them on with a bread basket, is awesome. The Home Office should deliver him a British Passport straightaway.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well the Millwall supporter was by that time probably more concerned about having been stabbed in the chest and stomach.Roger said:Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.0 -
All poll rampers should be forced to have a booze-less five course meal at an overlit Garfunkels with Paul Dacre and Lynton Crosby, on a Monday night.Pulpstar said:
Timmo your earlier post sounded like a Tom Brake Hold !timmo said:
They are going to lose C&W though....so it is just a swap reallykle4 said:
Net gains would be a terrific result after their campaign. Or the Tories and Labour are having a much worse time than it seems.El_Capitano said:
Please clarify.0 -
That would also be my guess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You gov and survation labour leads ?Casino_Royale said:0 -
Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:
Why would he promote the polls of a rival company? He's already published his poll.-1 -
But a Labour lead is impossible. Are they only surveying students now?Scrapheap_as_was said:
must be - YouGov going chips all in on a Lab lead?numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:
Maybe it's just Farron/Clegg/Skinner/that Scottish bloke losing.0 -
Almost all the late polls seems to be showing an anti-Tory nudge. Even if MOE, it is clear that last minute Tory scaremongering about terrorism is proving no more successful than their previous weeks of cynical negative campaigning.Bobajob_PB said:
Tightening however. Be interesting to see what YouGov and Survation show.Black_Rook said:Not sure if anyone's posted this yet:
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872526048008777730
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
Damian Lyons said on DP that all the pollsters have broadly the same raw numbers, it is turnout weighting/spiral of shame etc etc that is causing the divergence.0 -
What makes you think thatdavid_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
I had no idea you were so glum about Tory prospects.david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
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and on that bombshell...david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
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You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.kyf_100 said:
It's a difficult question to answer. I've always been a bit of a political junkie but the idea of people my own age or younger being interested in politics feels very very new. I think social media has politicised the very young in a way they never were.NickPalmer said:
Is the widening gap between the parties and the age divide making politics more partisan, do you think? I wouldn't really want friends who are abusive to anyone on social media, and I don't know anyone who is (apart from SeanT, of course, and we don't take him too seriously). But I come from a background which put tolerance above political belief - my Tory parents were relaxed about my Communist views and would pick up the Daily Worker for me; in turn I never hassled them and urged my dad to vote agains me to be true to his beliefs when I first stood for Parliament.kyf_100 said:
You genuinely feel like if you are voting Conservative it's best to keep your head down and not attract attention, which is why I think the shy Tory vote might be even larger this time round than it was in 2015.
It really does feel like if you are under 35 (I'm on the cusp) then you can forget about expressing Conservative views either on social media or in person, unless you're already pretty sure you're in safe company.
It seems odd that with less party identification than ever there should be more vituperation. But is it really worse than usual?
It's sort of like being a hardcore fan of some obscure, nerdy sport that, between 2015 and now, miraculously became as popular as football.
Now you have a lot of very loud, very obnoxious people who are more interested in chanting rude songs about the other side than they are in debating the finer points of the game. The Corbynites in my feed are basically like football hooligans - loud, intimidating and they make you afraid of wearing your own team's colours.
For what it's worth, while I'm pretty sure the 18 - 24s break pretty heavily for Corbyn, I think 25 - 35 is far more even. It's just most people with right wing views stay pretty quiet about it.0 -
Yes.rcs1000 said:
Are you including Vince as a newbie?david_herdson said:
The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.Brom said:
If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?david_herdson said:Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:
Con 372
Lab 206
SNP 43
LD 7
Plaid 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
UKIP 0
NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.0 -
A 20 point Tory lead?numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:0 -
So it doesn't matter if he promotes the others, particularly if he thinks his is right and their's is not.Bobajob_PB said:numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:
Why would he promote the polls of a rival company? He's already published his poll.0 -
Well the 'if what I'm told' implies that it isn't ICM, maybe one of the pollsters sent out a teaser of the polling companies' group WhatsApp?Bobajob_PB said:numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:
Why would he promote the polls of a rival company? He's already published his poll.0 -
Whatever these surprises are, they're sure to have an impact on the news cycle, just on the eve of polling. Big Tory lead - reduced Tory turnout. Labour in surprising tie, or even lead - means increasing numbers in both the Lab and Tory turnouts.
1 of each ? Computer, media and public-psychological breakdown.0 -
What is your change of mind based upon?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
I've just come back from last-minute leafleting and I say Con 360+. I think you're more likely to take Wakefield under my scenario!david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
Polling must be a small world and I bet they all talk to each other.Bobajob_PB said:numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:
Why would he promote the polls of a rival company? He's already published his poll.0 -
Even if it is adjustments that lead to most of the differences in the polls, they are based on some set of numbers - and those would not have changed so much in a day or two to make a Kaboom reaction, unless it was in one direction.Essexit said:
A 20 point Tory lead?numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:0 -
What if the polls are right about Labour but wrong about the Lib Dems?
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Jesus. Shades of TSE's "I'm hearing the the WWC Leave vote has come out in the North West" on June 23. It couldn't happen. Surely?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
!!!!!!!!! That I do not need to hear...david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
Milwall was stabbed 7 times himself, and it does seem that the aggressive fightback by the bar staff and customers drove the jihadis out to find softer targets.Roger said:Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
I suspect that more will come out in time, but the police are probably trying to keep their methods as quiet as possible.
The Romanian baker and Spanish skateboarder were brave too at driving off the attackers, though the latter seems to have died as a result:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/romanian-baker-florin-morariu-london-bridge-attack-borough-market-fought-off-terrorists-crate-a7773671.html
It seems 7 out of the 8 victims were overseas visitors, all working here.
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Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
You've got shares in Tena, don't you.david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
For me, that David Herdson post is worth reading.IanB2 said:
Almost all the late polls seems to be showing an anti-Tory nudge. Even if MOE, it is clear that last minute Tory scaremongering about terrorism is proving no more successful than their previous weeks of cynical negative campaigning.Bobajob_PB said:
Tightening however. Be interesting to see what YouGov and Survation show.Black_Rook said:Not sure if anyone's posted this yet:
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872526048008777730
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
Damian Lyons said on DP that all the pollsters have broadly the same raw numbers, it is turnout weighting/spiral of shame etc etc that is causing the divergence.
David is a good guy. Sound. He's not given for ramping in either direction.0 -
If the gap is as big as 9% the majority is likely to be significantly greater than 64.Saltire said:Still think that the 20% of people who said that they are considering voting tactically could be massively important to the outcome of the election. There is no clear idea where the might help one party more than another (Except against the SNP) but I think that this could lead to quite few unexpected holds and gains of seats.
Since this puts a fair bit of doubt in the figures I would the final outcome being quite different to what the models and UNS predict.
Currently I am thinking we could see a result something like this:
CON 44% 357 SEATS
LAB 35% 216 SEATS
LD 10% 13 SEATS
UKIP 3% 0 SEATS
GRN 2% 1 SEAT
SNP/PC 5% 43/2 SEATS
OTH 1% 0 SEATS
NI 18 SEATS
Majority of 64
Tactical voting in E&W more anti Tory than Anti Corbyn but off set by Tory gains in Midlands and the North
LD on 13 is basically treading water in E&W and gaining 4 in Scotland.
The more the third party vote decays, the more irrelevant tactical voting becomes, because the third parties typically have few voters available to lend in most constituencies, and the surviving third party voters know their candidate hasn't a prayer and will mostly be sticking to their guns because of conviction.
Save for the small handful of seats in which the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens are competitive in England and Wales (the dozen they hold, plus perhaps another dozen or so realistic targets,) this is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour now. Scotland, of course, is a bit of a law unto itself nowadays.0 -
People who go around chanting 'I know something you don't know' need to grow up.
Either put up or shut up.0 -
Cloudy and dull, but dry. It isn't the weather forecast.0
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Are you trying to give us heart attacks, or is this a poor attempt at humour?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
+1.SandyRentool said:People who go around chanting 'I know something you don't know' need to grow up.
Either put up or shut up.0 -
Yes, but why promote the work of a rival, even if he is a friend? Pollsters are bizarre beasts.Rhubarb said:
Polling must be a small world and I bet they all talk to each other.Bobajob_PB said:numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:
Why would he promote the polls of a rival company? He's already published his poll.0 -
Yep.kle4 said:
Even if it is adjustments that lead to most of the differences in the polls, they are based on some set of numbers - and those would not have changed so much in a day or two to make a Kaboom reaction, unless it was in one direction.Essexit said:
A 20 point Tory lead?numbertwelve said:
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.Casino_Royale said:0 -
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
Con between 305-315 would be an excellent result for the country.david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
David doesn't do wind ups. Neither does Martin Boon.isam said:
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
That's why I'm worried.0 -
Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.0 -
Not succeeded - someone has shared the CCTV footage from Stoney St on Facebook - while I will not distribute it here, if anyone wants to I am sure they will find itfoxinsoxuk said:
Milwall was stabbed 7 times himself, and it does seem that the aggressive fightback by the bar staff and customers drove the jihadis out to find softer targets.Roger said:Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
I suspect that more will come out in time, but the police are probably are trying to keep their methods as quiet as possible.
And heyo, 6 long years since I last posted (busy with kids) but have been lurking lots recently - glad to see the old place hasn't changed in timbre or robustness of exchanges, even if some of the faces have changed0 -
Or it's not David. Didn't sound like him.isam said:
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what was KABOOM 1?!Casino_Royale said:0 -
That really isn't David's style.RoyalBlue said:
Are you trying to give us heart attacks, or is this a poor attempt at humour?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
But I'm not sure how leafleting would change your mind; canvassing yes.....Casino_Royale said:
David doesn't do wind ups. Neither does Martin Boon.isam said:
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
That's why I'm worried.0 -
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...0
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Umm No it would be a disaster. If you really want months of chaos and market collapse then that is the way to go about it.Chameleon said:
Con between 305-315 would be an excellent result for the country.david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
So I'm going to be crapping myself waiting for exit poll, all over again.
Great.0 -
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.MikeL said:Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.0 -
Decent bottle of red with a couple of friends-(a Green and an ex tory now Lib dem Remoaner)rcs1000 said:Serious question for tomorrow:
What's everyone drinking?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
OR
Bottle of whiskey and the contents of a revolver.0 -
Yes, that would make a lot more sense.NickPalmer said:
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what was KABOOM 1?!Casino_Royale said:0 -
Has TravelJunkie hacked David's account?Peter_the_Punter said:
Or it's not David. Didn't sound like him.isam said:
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
The Green candidate in Leeds C must be hoping that the rain holds off. He has been round doing his usual trick of writing "Vote Green" in chalk all over the pavements.0
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Maybe to improve his betting situation. In today's world though just keep saying Leicester, leave, trump and then maybe Corbyn is not beyond the paleisam said:
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
I find it odd that David Herdson would make such a statement but not elaborate as to the basis of that statement.
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Has David Herdson been hacked by Travel Junkie?0
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Bollocks, I've just recorded the podcast predicting a Tory majority of 100david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
How so? It makes no sense that their adjustments would suddenly switch to Tory - nothing that has happened in the last week is really that different to what has gone on before - and if they go all in on it being a Lab lead, and ICM end up calling it spot on, it makes his company look even better than if the others merely suggested a smaller Tory lead than him.NickPalmer said:
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what was KABOOM 1?!Casino_Royale said:0 -
Agreed. Among other things, he's too experienced to make a national projection based on a leafleting session! I did some leaflets this afternoon and talked to two people. I conclude nothing.Peter_the_Punter said:
Or it's not David. Didn't sound like him.isam said:
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.0 -
Well betfair has shifted from 1.19-1.2 to 1.2-1.21
I was laying Tories in response to that comment so if its a joke- not amusing!0 -
Hanretty has Ynys Mon as 75% CON gain likelihood (midpoints CON 33, LAB 29, PC 21, UKIP 13). And yet CON is 5/1, 7/1 around the bookies. BF exchange too thin. At least one of them is wrong.0
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Corbyn will not get above 275. Therefore the polls are good news, as there will not Corbyn government & May will be shoved off the cliffs by Friday afternoon. Best result for the country in my opinion.Casino_Royale said:
David doesn't do wind ups. Neither does Martin Boon.isam said:
1.01 a wind upCarolus_Rex said:
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?david_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
That's why I'm worried.0 -
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.WhisperingOracle said:
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.MikeL said:Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.0 -
I think @david_herdson has just drunk Robert Smithson's excess wine cellar in one go ....Big_G_NorthWales said:
What makes you think thatdavid_herdson said:Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
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Right. That's enough sitting here like a plonker waiting. Going to put Count Arthur's Radio Show on and do some cooking.0
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Don't know what loopy conspiracy theory this is about, but Indy has a named eyewitness, Gabriele Sciottokyf_100 said:
If anyone has the stomach for it, Tommy Robinson posted a low quality video of the three terrorists being taken down by the police about an hour ago. It's on Twitter. I won't link to it here.ThomasNashe said:
The baker who speak broken English, and took them on with a bread basket, is awesome. The Home Office should deliver him a British Passport straightaway.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well the Millwall supporter was by that time probably more concerned about having been stabbed in the chest and stomach.Roger said:Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/london-terror-attack-image-shows-suspect-shot-by-police-with-canisters-taped-to-body-a7771611.html0 -
Snap!!steve_garner said:Has David Herdson been hacked by Travel Junkie?
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Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game. But Alt-Tabbing now and then to check for pollsEssexit said:When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
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especially if just on leafleting...The_Apocalypse said:I find it odd that David Herdson would make such a statement but not elaborate as to the basis of that statement.
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someone on digitalspy politics thread has said hes heard (dont know how) that You GOv have a 7% Tory lead0
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You need to buy yourself a second monitor!NickPalmer said:
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game. But Alt-Tabbing now and then to check for pollsEssexit said:When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
. 0 -
Oxfordshire very nearly went full-on rainbow coalition, but for one very near miss by the Lib Dems, and another particularly dumb bit of strategy that cost Labour one seat.Chameleon said:Oxfordshire was the only county in which the Tories made no net gains in the May elections (and still don't have a majority in), and went remain by a decent majority, so would be my starting point for the shires, but of course everywhere has stonking huge majorities, so I reckon that you'd be looking at a central London seat.
The Cotswolds seat is slowly trending away from Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton, and will be a target for the Lib Dems when/if they get back up to 50+ seats, but certainly not yet.0 -
That could be true too.NickPalmer said:
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what was KABOOM 1?!Casino_Royale said:
My heart can't take it. 25 hours and 10 minutes more of this.0 -
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.nichomar said:
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.kyf_100 said:
It's a difficult question to answer. I've always been a bit of a political junkie but the idea of people my own age or younger being interested in politics feels very very new. I think social media has politicised the very young in a way they never were.
It's sort of like being a hardcore fan of some obscure, nerdy sport that, between 2015 and now, miraculously became as popular as football.
Now you have a lot of very loud, very obnoxious people who are more interested in chanting rude songs about the other side than they are in debating the finer points of the game. The Corbynites in my feed are basically like football hooligans - loud, intimidating and they make you afraid of wearing your own team's colours.
For what it's worth, while I'm pretty sure the 18 - 24s break pretty heavily for Corbyn, I think 25 - 35 is far more even. It's just most people with right wing views stay pretty quiet about it.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.0 -
worst election ever, turnout will be terrible. Cons <2850
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It was either that or David Herdson is IOS in disguise!TudorRose said:
Snap!!steve_garner said:Has David Herdson been hacked by Travel Junkie?
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david_herdson said:
Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
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Yes Nick - that's what I thought too.NickPalmer said:
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what was KABOOM 1?!Casino_Royale said:
Though not banking on it.0 -
Would be laughable if YouGov turn around right at the end with a big tory lead.0
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This is worse than the EU referendum. The worst case there was more EU bollocks, Corbyn and co. worry me far more than that.Casino_Royale said:That could be true too.
My heart can't take it. 25 hours and 10 minutes more of this.
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A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.MikeL said:
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.WhisperingOracle said:
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.MikeL said:Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.0 -
When a sensible Labour leader, or someone like Clegg comes in Oxfordshire will flip relatively quickly away from Con.El_Capitano said:
Oxfordshire very nearly went full-on rainbow coalition, but for one very near miss by the Lib Dems, and another particularly dumb bit of strategy that cost Labour one seat.Chameleon said:Oxfordshire was the only county in which the Tories made no net gains in the May elections (and still don't have a majority in), and went remain by a decent majority, so would be my starting point for the shires, but of course everywhere has stonking huge majorities, so I reckon that you'd be looking at a central London seat.
The Cotswolds seat is slowly trending away from Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton, and will be a target for the Lib Dems when/if they get back up to 50+ seats, but certainly not yet.0
