politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general el

pbr2013 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gallowgate said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in the Middle East:
https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/872464833123405824

Act of war then?

I hope to fuck we have the sense to sit this one out. The Saudis are not our friends and absolutely nothing good will come of us supporting them.

Have any British government officials sent condolences to the Iranians about these terrorist attacks?

A quick look at the FCO website suggests not. Although I see that Boris did congratulate Rouhani on his "election" victory last month. Does kinda suggest a lack of focus.

https://www.gov.uk/government/world/iran

brokenwheel said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872497018060640257

I wouldn't be surprised if that is what Textor / Messina polling have looked like for weeks. If it is correct or not....squeaky bum time.

Re: Claire Wright http://m.devonlive.com/one-of-the-biggest-electoral-upsets-in-uk-history-could-be-on-in-east-devon-with-claire-wright/story-30371909-detail/story.html

kle4 said:

Perfect time for a Lab in front poll.

Yes, we must be owed at least on more SeanT meltdown before tomorrow night.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/872498492421308417

MarkSenior said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.

Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.

But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?

She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .

Kind of independent we could do with here in East Herts, with all 53 Councillors being Tory. Not good surely

I will be voting blue tomorrow though, no doubt whatsoever. I suspect a lot of her county council supporters will be doing the same (although obviously not all)

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.

Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.

But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?

She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .

How much did she hold it by in the previous election?

74%!

I'd not read too much into a councillor who's popular in her ward. That says "strong candidate" but doesn't imply replication across the constituency for a national election.

As a side note, the same constituency had a Monster Raving Loony councillor at one time (he later defected to the Tories - true story!)

The point is just that she proved she was serious coming a good second in 2015, and has two more years to build against a Tory MP who has a classic safe seat mentality.

In better days for the Lib Dems, it was the sort of seat where it would be an energetic Lib Dem surging past a non-battle-hardened Tory stalwart in an otherwise unpromising election (Solihull, Westmoreland, North Norfolk etc). That's why I get the feeling in my waters on East Devon.

Sean_F said:

ICM 46/34.

That strikes me as good for both sides if it was the result. especially as Corbyn can say 'I got more votes' The fact that most of them are likely to be in very safe seats

Scrapheap_as_was said:

ICM happy to release post Jack W's encouraging report

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/872497548942073856

Kudos to them for not herding anyway!

brokenwheel said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872497018060640257

Could this be the defining moment ICM lose their gold standard rating to Survation?

brokenwheel said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872497018060640257

I think that ICM poll will be almost bang on, Labour gets its biggest voteshare since 2005 and matches Kinnock 1992 but the Tories get their biggest voteshare since Heath 1970 and probably their biggest majority since Thatcher 1987

peter_from_putney said:

Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m.
Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.

it should be quicker this time as there are no locals

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tyndall, whether we sit it out (Syria), take part without committing ground forces (Libya), or have a full-blown role (Iraq/Afghanistan) it'll be criticised.

Anyway, we'll have to wait and see what Iran actually does.

As I recall, the Eastern Province of KSA is where the oil is, and has a substantial (and oppressed) Shia population.

I don't really see 46% but say 42/34 and that'll do fine.

Sean_F said:

My estimate is:

Con 345, Lab 225, SNP 45, Lib Dem 10, Others 25 or thereabouts.

Very cautious Sean. Only a 40 Con maj ?!?

MikeL said:

Iain Watson (BBC):

Labour strategists - off the record - expecting net losses.

Most effort going into defences.

But do expect some gains.

Even more convinced after reading Stephen Bush's latest blog post for the New Statesman this evening that I'm right about the potential for large differences in swing between seats at this election. Based on what he's heard, he reckons that the trend of 2015 will continue - i.e. Labour will increase its vote share but lose more seats, because its vote is getting more and more inefficiently distributed; this chimes both with my own thinking and with other reports of canvass and focus group returns that I have read during the campaign.

In short, Labour is stacking up more extra voters in urban areas and university towns, whilst going steadily backwards in the rest of the country - the one caveat to this being that I expect Labour to consolidate many improved, yet (under FPTP) totally useless, second place performances in safe Tory seats all over rural England. This might help in a small handful of targets - Bush mentions Battersea, and I reckon Brighton Kemptown looks rather vulnerable - but, for the most part, Labour's additional votes are likely to materialise disproportionately in seats where it is already extremely safe, or where it has zero chance of winning.

On the other hand, I still see no particular reason why the Tories can't roll over dozens of traditional Labour seats in the Midlands and North, through a combination of hoovering up half or more of the Ukip vote, and a significant number of direct Lab to Con defections (caused by much of the old Labour core support's ongoing distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.)

I stand to be proven spectacularly wrong in just over 24 hours' time, but right now I think that the Conservative landslide is achievable.

Tories out chants on the radio at start of Jezza vox pops

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gallowgate said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in the Middle East:
https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/status/872464833123405824

Act of war then?

I hope to fuck we have the sense to sit this one out. The Saudis are not our friends and absolutely nothing good will come of us supporting them.

Yes we need to keep out. May must know shed be crucified in 2022 if we got involved in that

Mmm. If it blows up properly it might be quite hard to keep out. Surely too many Western assets in the Gulf for the Ayatollahs to really have a go?

I see that the QE puts out for sea trials this month.

Prediction - ahead of final polls - Con 356, Lab 220, SNP 45, Lib Dem 7, PC 2, Green 1, Speaker 1 NI 18

I think 62 majority. I think it could be well above this if the Tories could have broken through the reluctance across the north to vote Tory - Thatchers legacy.

RobD said:

JackW said:

RobD said:

ARSE majority anywhere between 10-130. Nice

Naughty ....

I was going to ask to take a look at the shape of your posterior.. but maybe that's a bit too cheeky....

That's a colossal ask!

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

Thanks Mr Jack!

Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide

Precisely.

And the point of the past six weeks was... ?

To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.

Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?

I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.

To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.

As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

HYUFD said:

wills66 said:

Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

Majority < 50 or NOC.

WillS

A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow

Anecdote alert:

On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.

That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.

Kilburn is very much the 'Labour end'. Confusingly, there are 2 wards in the constituency called Kilburn, one on the Brent side of Kilburn High Street and one on the Camden side. Both deliver huge Labour majorities in what otherwise is a well-balanced constituency. The three wards to the East of the Finchley Road are strongly Tory, the rest are evens. Constituency was 72% remain.

spudgfsh said:

peter_from_putney said:

Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m.
Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.

it should be quicker this time as there are no locals

The BBC usually shows them in a chaingang throwing the ballot boxes into the counting area through a back door. They certainly won't start counting anything before 10pm. I miss the race there used to be with Torbay.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Pray to God, Jehovah, Allah and Zeus the Tories win. And may Huppert win in Cambridge too

I'm going to the poor house if the Tories aren't the largest party and if the Lib Dems get more than 24ish seats.

To be honest, I wouldn't bother packing a suitcase for either eventuality.

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

Thanks Mr Jack!

Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide

Precisely.

And the point of the past six weeks was... ?

To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.

Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?

I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.

To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.

As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!

Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?

Mr. Pulpstar, no love for the Flying Spaghetti Monster?

Regardless, may you be touched by His Noodley Appendage.

On arms deals - Crete once got in trouble with Rome, because they'd been hiring out mercenary archers to Rome, and Rome's enemy, in the same war.

SKY covering Theresa May's final speech - BBC are not!

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

Thanks Mr Jack!

Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide

Precisely.

And the point of the past six weeks was... ?

To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.

Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?

I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.

To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.

As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!

I think that a centre left party whose patriotism is not in doubt would start favorite for 2022.

I am sticking with my forecast of Con seats 355, maj 60. With full confidence in all the analysis and PB consensus, just as I had for Remain and for Mrs Clinton. This must truly be third time lucky.... (or unlucky, as far as our country is concerned).

Ok time for my forecast , surprisingly to me it is the same ballpark as Sean_F

Con 340
Lab 230
SNP 45
LD 12
Plaid 3
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18

All political parties would be wise to do some serious thinking about new policies for the modern world, especially a post brexit one.

How to.deal with rise of machine learning, an aging population etc etc etc

Mr. F, agree on that centre-left party idea.

Mr. B2, PR is the work of Satan.

Welcome to the site, Mr. Cat.

bigjohnowls said:

I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.

IanB2 said:

I am sticking with my forecast of Con seats 355, maj 60. With full confidence in all the analysis and PB consensus, just as I had for Remain and for Mrs Clinton. This must truly be third time lucky.... (or unlucky, as far as our country is concerned).

The PB consensus in 2015 was for a hung parliament. We are not the sages that some pretend. We are gamblers, and often ones with party blinkers on.

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/872498492421308417

ICM stick to their guns... ComRes and YouGov to come...

Survation as well?

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/872498492421308417

ICM stick to their guns... ComRes and YouGov to come...

Survation too

CORRECTED!!!!!!

#SurvationNationBaby!!!!!!

spudgfsh said:

TudorRose said:

spudgfsh said:

peter_from_putney said:

Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m.
Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.

it should be quicker this time as there are no locals

The BBC usually shows them in a chaingang throwing the ballot boxes into the counting area through a back door. They certainly won't start counting anything before 10pm. I miss the race there used to be with Torbay.....

but without the locals they won't have to sort out the different ballot papers prior to sorting by candidate and counting.

Yes, I think a lot of the results will come earlier than predicted for that very reason. Except the recounts of course.

Tories to win more votes than Labour at 1/8. Compared to 1/14 in most seats market. Do we like this?

foxinsoxuk said:

surbiton said:

Labour's electoral nightmare. Consider the following scenario:

Con 40, Lab 40, LD 8, UKIP 3, GRN 1. [ without ticking the Scottish box ]

Con 322
Lab 250
LD 4
UKIP 0
GRN 0
SNP 55
PC 1
NI 18

Con short of majority by 4. Of course, Scotland will probably give more than 2 gains.

So even with 40:40 split, Con gets overall majority with UNS.

I played with the numbers to see if I could get a Lab majority, but nothing plausible would do it.

A high young (<40) turnout, and kippers breaking less decisively to Con in the Midlands and North, while a little tactical voting goes on does make a well hung parliament possible.

Not entirely implausible. </p>

That's why I have an insurance bet on a Labour minority government.
While a Conservative win looks overwhelmingly likely, there remains a small voice in my head saying 'yes, but...'.

dyedwoolie said:

My guess.
Tories over 400
Labour under 160
Lib Dems under 6
SNP under 45
Plaid and Greens 2 apiece.

That works out as a Con majority of around 150 right?

pbr2013 said:

bigjohnowls said:

I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.

It's actually been debated at length. The reason why many PB'ers are charting a middle path between ICM/Comres and YouGov/Survation.

https://twitter.com/Trickyjabs/status/872487381118717952/photo/1

FrancisUrquhart said:

brokenwheel said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872497018060640257

I wouldn't be surprised if that is what Textor / Messina polling have looked like for weeks. If it is correct or not....squeaky bum time.

What's a preliiminary final poll, when it's at home?

Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

Mr. 0999, I'd prefer the most votes bet, personally, although the blue vote is apparently more efficient nowadays (certainly wasn't in 2005 and earlier).

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

brokenwheel said:

https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872497018060640257

I wouldn't be surprised if that is what Textor / Messina polling have looked like for weeks. If it is correct or not....squeaky bum time.

What's a preliiminary final poll, when it's at home?

I believe it mans they are still continue to poll .

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

Thanks Mr Jack!

Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide

Precisely.

And the point of the past six weeks was... ?

To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.

Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?

I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.

To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.

As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!

I think that a centre left party whose patriotism is not in doubt would start favorite for 2022.

Indeed. Feels a while since we had one of those.

IanB2 said:

Labour's Idiocy:

1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance.
2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.

Labour won't back PR because, providing that the party doesn't definitively rupture through an outbreak of civil war after a Tory landslide, it knows that it will endure as the principal Opposition, and therefore it is also confident that it will eventually wield power again on its own. The worst that it might have to do is rely on the SNP to provide confidence and supply at some point along the way.

Even if the Tories govern very well, eventually people will tire of them. Arguably, Labour just has to rebuild quietly and wait for this to happen so that it can benefit from the swing back, and take the levers of Government for itself. And certainly, if we are returning to a two-party system in most of the country, one can understand why it would take this attitude: historical precedent suggests that, with the smaller players out of the way, relatively modest shifts in public opinion can first demolish large Government majorities, and then put Oppositions into power.

foxinsoxuk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I wonder what the currant bun will have for their readers on tomorrows front page?

Pages 2 and 3 today were all about how our security services failed to act on the Italian tip off.

I never put you down as a sun reader....