Con 372 Lab 206 SNP 43 LD 7 Plaid 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 UKIP 0 NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
So your earlier reference to police traffic wardens was a red herring.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
You never know. I was so sure that Mark Oaten didn't have an earthly in Winchester in 1997[1] that I went down to Christchurch to help Diana Maddock, not that it made any difference. Fortunately I did go and vote before heading to the station which made Oaten's majority 2 instead of 1.
And allegedly there was an election under FPTP in one of the British African territories just prior to independence where the winning party won by one seat, and won one of those seats by one vote!
Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
You might have asked why in that case they want to go on giving WFA to the rich, but I can understand why you didn't!
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West Canterbury Kensington Walsall North Warwick and Leamington Vale of Clwyd Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Peterborough Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne Oxford West and Abingdon St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
Kensington Labour ?
Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
Simply the flaw in YouGov's model, importing demographically similar but politically different voters into unusual seats from those surrounding. Kensington will be safe Tory, despite all of its well off remainers, and Labour will be third in Portsmouth South.
Surely any model should pass the common sense test, or it should not be used?
Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
They aren't interested in listening, Rob. But, they do mark you down and judge you as "a Tory", if you challenge it.
In my professional life, with people I need to work with and have excellent relationships with, every single day, it simply isn't worth it.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him.
Ha!
So he needs to make a day trip back to Nottingham tomorrow?
Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
They aren't interested in listening, Rob. But, they do mark you down and judge you as "a Tory", if you challenge it.
In my professional life, with people I need to work with and have excellent relationships with, every single day, it simply isn't worth it.
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn
A tectonic shift indeed. Educated-but-none-too-bright has been the bedrock of the Conservative Party for generations.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
SNIP
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
York Central is awash with Labour posters for Rachael Maskell.1/10 Labour 5/1 Conservative both Corbyn and May have been here.
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
Con 372 Lab 206 SNP 43 LD 7 Plaid 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 UKIP 0 NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.
If you think the Cons will be on 372 that is a maj of 94 not 76
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I've read it and he is pretty scathing about Theresa May as well.
Con 380 Lab 197 SNP 45 Lib Dem 6 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 Northern Ireland 18
Con maj 110
which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge?? (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?
I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.
Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.
It's emphatically just for amusement only.
I suspect Ceredgion is more vulnerable than it looks. The LDs need to persuade the local Tories to vote tactically to keep Plaid out.
The 2017 plaid candidate is less "controversial" than the 2015 one, so there might be less tactical voting as a consequence.
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West Canterbury Kensington Walsall North Warwick and Leamington Vale of Clwyd Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Peterborough Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne Oxford West and Abingdon St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
Kensington Labour ?
Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
Simply the flaw in YouGov's model, importing demographically similar but politically different voters into unusual seats from those surrounding. Kensington will be safe Tory, despite all of its well off remainers, and Labour will be third in Portsmouth South.
Surely any model should pass the common sense test, or it should not be used?
YouGov have been brave to publish their seat forecasts.
For their intention is to go beyond the normal national VI poll, using the power of their 50,000 strong panel and their huge databank of demographic data. But they have always been clear that it's a model, built from seat-level upwards to try and predict the national result, and not an algorithm to forecast the result in every single seat. Their hope is that the errors, which they clearly expect, will cancel each other out at national level such that their model provides the best forecast of the national result.
Personally, I remain concerned that the inbuilt bias in their panel will undermine the otherwise excellent work they've done in modelling voting behaviour.
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West Canterbury Kensington Walsall North Warwick and Leamington Vale of Clwyd Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Peterborough Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne Oxford West and Abingdon St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
Canterbury will not go Labour even if it's the one seat in Kent slightly trending that way. It still had a comfortable Leave majority last year as did all of Kent apart from Royal Tunbridge Wells..
If Canterbury goes to Labour then Corbyn will be proclaiming the Socialist Republic of Britain on Friday morning.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.
The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
I expect the Tories to increase the size of their majority.
If the Tories do win Leave voters and Labour Remain voters as much as polls suggest it is not impossible the Tories could win Hartlepool but Labour Warwick and Leamington
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.
The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
The ward I represent is the one immediately north of the boundary, so I speak with some local knowledge....
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.
Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.
A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.
There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.
There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
They aren't interested in listening, Rob. But, they do mark you down and judge you as "a Tory", if you challenge it.
In my professional life, with people I need to work with and have excellent relationships with, every single day, it simply isn't worth it.
Very sensible. I know some very vocal and aggressive labour supporters who have been surprised in the last few elections as they hadn't come across any Tory voters. I held my tongue and didn't tell them that it was unlikely they would if they berate anyone who is not super left wing as a Tory.
Anecdote alert My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values. My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
Con 372 Lab 206 SNP 43 LD 7 Plaid 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 UKIP 0 NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
SNIP
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
York Central is awash with Labour posters for Rachael Maskell.1/10 Labour 5/1 Conservative both Corbyn and May have been here.
I identified York Central as one of the seats I thought could go Tory at the beginning of the Campaign. I just about think it still could, but the game is rather scuppered by the Green's withdrawal.
The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.
15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.
There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.
The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".
Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".
Average of scores for leader and campaign.
May and Con - 5 and 5 Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5 Farron and LibDem 4 and 3
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn
A tectonic shift indeed. Educated-but-none-too-bright has been the bedrock of the Conservative Party for generations.
(g,d&r)
Love it! The guy who forgot to register was of course the dumbest of the three, and that's saying something.
There are 4 key numbers I will be looking for tomorrow night:
1) Exit poll showing size of TMay's majority. After which I will relax (hopefully). 2) Number of SCON seats. >9 and I will be happy and spending winnings. 3) Total blue votes - and whether it exceeds Major's 1992 total as the highest vote ever. 4) Seat lead over Labour and whether it is 200 or more.
On a good night all 4 could come up. Now that would be an accumulator to be on.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
SNIP
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
The 600K members are not the disciplined army that our more Stalinist professional organisers would really like, and in plenty of seats they are running an enthusiastic campaign entirely without Regional Office support. If the overall picture is more favourable than the polling average, that will pay unexpected dividends. Otherwise, it's of course pretty silly. But there isn't really a shortage of volunteers for the key seats.
There's something rather amusing about Jon Snow getting 30,000 retweets when he says Theresa May won't do an interview. Then Corbyn cancels his interview at the last minute before May decided to accept. Needless to say twitter greets the news with silence and excuses.
Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:
Con to Lab:
Bolton West Canterbury Kensington Walsall North Warwick and Leamington Vale of Clwyd Preseli Pembrokeshire
Lab to Con:
Halifax Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Peterborough Portsmouth South
LD to Con:
Eastbourne Oxford West and Abingdon St Ives
SNP to Con:
Perth and North Perthshire
Canterbury will not go Labour even if it's the one seat in Kent slightly trending that way. It still had a comfortable Leave majority last year as did all of Kent apart from Royal Tunbridge Wells..
Being Tunbridge Wells born and raised it is too posh for Corbyn outside High Brooms but the LD vote will likely be up on 2015
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.
I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).
My bad...
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
You never know. I was so sure that Mark Oaten didn't have an earthly in Winchester in 1997[1] that I went down to Christchurch to help Diana Maddock, not that it made any difference. Fortunately I did go and vote before heading to the station which made Oaten's majority 2 instead of 1.
And allegedly there was an election under FPTP in one of the British African territories just prior to independence where the winning party won by one seat, and won one of those seats by one vote!
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.
Did you tell you son he was an idiot ? Do not think I would have liked my dad calling me that at 19.
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I've read it and he is pretty scathing about Theresa May as well.
Given Obso's age and background, his ONLY chance of returning to front line politics is if there is a major shake up and realignment of the existing political parties. Everything he writes has the objective of stirring things up with this in mind.
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
Not really. The LES has been true blue for as long as anyone can remember. (It once published an article lambasting Labour that was supposedly penned by former Labour stalwart Bryan Gould, which turned out to have been by Michael Howard's son.) Its Tory proclivities never caused too many problems for Labour in London.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.
For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
I've read it and he is pretty scathing about Theresa May as well.
It reads like an elect a Tory government but then ditch May piece. Can't argue with a lot of it, on the Tory spectrum my stance is closer to Cameroon One nation stuff than May. I am not even sure what Mayism really is as it seems to be all over the place.
Rudd has certainly boosted her profile, Ruth if she does make the gains will increase her standing and profile in the party even more.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.
The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
The ward I represent is the one immediately north of the boundary, so I speak with some local knowledge....
Well if you ever want to drop by for coffee, Ian....
There's something rather amusing about Jon Snow getting 30,000 retweets when he says Theresa May won't do an interview. Then Corbyn cancels his interview at the last minute before May decided to accept. Needless to say twitter greets the news with silence and excuses.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)
Anecdote alert My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values. My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.
Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
How have you decided to vote in the end yourself - LibDem? Just friendly interest though of course I retain a 1% hope you might relent...
Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
So your earlier reference to police traffic wardens was a red herring.
Traffic wardens are if they exist employed the police.I do not know what you are going on about.They had greater powers to direct traffic issue endorsable fixed penalties etc.My pedantic point was the media say traffic wardens when they are parking attendants.
A programme for your diaries or not as the case may be
20 Days
This new drama documentary tells the story of the Conservative Party’s 2016 leadership campaign, from the day David Cameron resigned to the day Theresa May became Prime Minister.
Based on exhaustive research and first-person testimonies, this dramatised narrative goes beyond the headlines to lay bare the politicking and positioning, betrayals and blunders of this extraordinary political time. The programme also features key interviews with people who were intimately involved in the campaigns of the main contenders.
This programme is part of a series marking Brexit - One Year On.
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
How have you decided to vote in the end yourself - LibDem? Just friendly interest though of course I retain a 1% hope you might relent...
Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
Lol your comment reminds me of some of the weird canvasses I have had; the woman who voted for be because I shared her husband's first name, and another because my surname was the same as her cousin's. Things YouGov will never be able to model...
Nevertheless SO should clearly vote for the LibDems. He yearns for realignment and it isn't going to come about by voting for Corbyn.
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
Anecdote alert My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values. My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
If fear of Corbyn has traction, it will be severe in places like St. Albans. I imagine the Garden Tax is going down there like a cup of cold sick....
They might be unhappy, but the alternative is not the LibDems. It is Jeremy Corbyn.
The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.
15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.
There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.
The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".
Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".
Average of scores for leader and campaign.
May and Con - 5 and 5 Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5 Farron and LibDem 4 and 3
Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.
It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.
I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
So your earlier reference to police traffic wardens was a red herring.
Traffic wardens are if they exist employed the police.I do not know what you are going on about.They had greater powers to direct traffic issue endorsable fixed penalties etc.My pedantic point was the media say traffic wardens when they are parking attendants.
The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.
15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.
There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.
The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".
Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".
Average of scores for leader and campaign.
May and Con - 5 and 5 Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5 Farron and LibDem 4 and 3
Anecdote alert My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values. My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.
Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
Their candidate this time is a 30something called Daisy Cooper who is apparently quite a high flyer in LibDem circles.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)
The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.
15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.
There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.
The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".
Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".
Average of scores for leader and campaign.
May and Con - 5 and 5 Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5 Farron and LibDem 4 and 3
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)
Pardon? – is it their normal VI poll or not?
I believe it is. I think the tweet is saying that the model is not related to the poll.
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
Her performance in the last election was truly remarkable.
Nevertheless the YouGov projection arises because a significantly large number of their (self-selected) panel members in East Devon say they'll be voting for her this time. So large a proportion that it has over-ridden the other feature of YouGov's model based on the voting intentions of similar people in adjacent seats.
We have to decide whether the high level of support she has received from the c. 75 East Devon panel members represents a) a statistical fluke, or b) an electoral earthquake in the making.
I put £2 on at 8/1 just for the interest of it. But I wouldn't risk my life savings.
SObserver said below, of Hampstead, 'the very richest and the very poorest live together'. I'm not sure that this is entirely true in that the poor of Hampstead aren't perhaps that poor compared with others nationally, but let it stand. Thoughout this and other campaigns there's been a clamour to narrow the gap between the best and the worst - Nicola Sturgeon wants to do that in Scottish schools, Corbyn will insist upon it for company payscales. Does anyone else think that all policies which seek to narrow the difference are bad policies?
I want our politicians to raise the situation of the poorest, boost the education of the hardest to educate, eradicate the cracks that people fall through - that sort of thing. If they can do that then I don't care in the slightest what the differential is - I want there to be fantastically rich people in this country, and I particularly want there to be fantastically clever and educated people here. If someone can afford to keep herself alive for 1000 years, then bully for her.
I'm not sure that the left historically played the politics of envy. I think that they're straying that way now though. It's quite astonishing that all parties seem to wish to join them.
We know why LOLGOV are predicting Kensington and Canterbury as Lean Labour.
5/ The upshot is that the highly engaged people in low turnout demographics are massively overrepresented.
The more wealthier you are the more engaged you are. The more engaged you are, the more likely you are to do polls, therefore skewing the results from your peer group.
Anecdote alert My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values. My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.
Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
Their candidate this time is a 30something called Daisy Cooper who is apparently quite a high flyer in LibDem circles.
She's a good candidate for sure. But "St Albans could be the big surprise..." is something one hears in Lib Dem circles at every single election bar none.
I'm thinking of having it put on t-shirts and would suggest the conference Glee Club may want to pen a song around the theme for this year.
The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.
15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.
There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.
The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".
Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".
Average of scores for leader and campaign.
May and Con - 5 and 5 Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5 Farron and LibDem 4 and 3
Thanks for undertaking this survey Jack .... very interesting. Iirc you sometimes include your forecast of the turnout - are you able to oblige on this occasion please?
My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.
How have you decided to vote in the end yourself - LibDem? Just friendly interest though of course I retain a 1% hope you might relent...
Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
Lol your comment reminds me of some of the weird canvasses I have had; the woman who voted for be because I shared her husband's first name, and another because my surname was the same as her cousin's. Things YouGov will never be able to model...
Nevertheless SO should clearly vote for the LibDems. He yearns for realignment and it isn't going to come about by voting for Corbyn.
People make odd voting decisions. Way back in the day, a mate's lifelong Tory grandmother switched her vote to Labour simply because the Labour MP in the neighbouring seat replied to his letter when he was researching a school project, and the local Tory MP didn't.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)
Pardon? – is it their normal VI poll or not?
I believe it is. I think the tweet is saying that the model is not related to the poll.
YouGov are riding two horses. They have their model based on all the data they have about their regular 50,000 panellists. Then they are trying to run 'regular' online VI polls based on selecting people from their panel who they think are representative.
So far, the two outcomes in terms of national VI have been very close. Let's see how far from Tory 42% / Lab 38% that this evening's VI poll turns out to be?
It remains my view that YouGov's weakness is that its self-selected panel isn't fully representative and that, whatever it may say, it over-weights younger voters.
Comments
https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/872478487109652480
(Please!!)
And allegedly there was an election under FPTP in one of the British African territories just prior to independence where the winning party won by one seat, and won one of those seats by one vote!
[1] Plus I couldn't stand the man.
In my professional life, with people I need to work with and have excellent relationships with, every single day, it simply isn't worth it.
Mr. Isam, very la-di-da.
(g,d&r)
I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
Edit: http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-why-we-believe-this-country-needs-a-strong-conservative-team-as-the-next-a3558971.html
For their intention is to go beyond the normal national VI poll, using the power of their 50,000 strong panel and their huge databank of demographic data. But they have always been clear that it's a model, built from seat-level upwards to try and predict the national result, and not an algorithm to forecast the result in every single seat. Their hope is that the errors, which they clearly expect, will cancel each other out at national level such that their model provides the best forecast of the national result.
Personally, I remain concerned that the inbuilt bias in their panel will undermine the otherwise excellent work they've done in modelling voting behaviour.
@estwebber: David Firth has just been described to me as the Andrew Ridgeley to John Curtice's George Michael
Does everyone remember it ?
My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values.
My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.
15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.
..................................................................
There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.
The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".
Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".
Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".
Average of scores for leader and campaign.
May and Con - 5 and 5
Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5
Farron and LibDem 4 and 3
Seats Scores and Con Maj - Low .. High .. Average
Con 330 - 390 - 370
Lab 165 - 230 - 203
SNP - 40 - 50 - 44
LibDem 6 - 14 - 10
Others 4 - 6 - 5
NI 18
Con Maj 10 - 130 - 90
All numbers rounded.
..................................................
Updated JackW Conservative Bedwetters Index
Con Maj 104 - No Chnage
1) Exit poll showing size of TMay's majority. After which I will relax (hopefully).
2) Number of SCON seats. >9 and I will be happy and spending winnings.
3) Total blue votes - and whether it exceeds Major's 1992 total as the highest vote ever.
4) Seat lead over Labour and whether it is 200 or more.
On a good night all 4 could come up. Now that would be an accumulator to be on.
Yours sincerely,
A. Pedant.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/jeremy-corbyns-surge-labours-poll-boost-real
Rudd has certainly boosted her profile, Ruth if she does make the gains will increase her standing and profile in the party even more.
I miss the old bugger sometimes.
Labour strategists - off the record - expecting net losses.
Most effort going into defences.
But do expect some gains.
Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
20 Days
This new drama documentary tells the story of the Conservative Party’s 2016 leadership campaign, from the day David Cameron resigned to the day Theresa May became Prime Minister.
Based on exhaustive research and first-person testimonies, this dramatised narrative goes beyond the headlines to lay bare the politicking and positioning, betrayals and blunders of this extraordinary political time. The programme also features key interviews with people who were intimately involved in the campaigns of the main contenders.
This programme is part of a series marking Brexit - One Year On.
Sunday June 18 BBC Two at 9pm
Nevertheless SO should clearly vote for the LibDems. He yearns for realignment and it isn't going to come about by voting for Corbyn.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
They might be unhappy, but the alternative is not the LibDems. It is Jeremy Corbyn.
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Nevertheless the YouGov projection arises because a significantly large number of their (self-selected) panel members in East Devon say they'll be voting for her this time. So large a proportion that it has over-ridden the other feature of YouGov's model based on the voting intentions of similar people in adjacent seats.
We have to decide whether the high level of support she has received from the c. 75 East Devon panel members represents a) a statistical fluke, or b) an electoral earthquake in the making.
I put £2 on at 8/1 just for the interest of it. But I wouldn't risk my life savings.
I want our politicians to raise the situation of the poorest, boost the education of the hardest to educate, eradicate the cracks that people fall through - that sort of thing. If they can do that then I don't care in the slightest what the differential is - I want there to be fantastically rich people in this country, and I particularly want there to be fantastically clever and educated people here. If someone can afford to keep herself alive for 1000 years, then bully for her.
I'm not sure that the left historically played the politics of envy. I think that they're straying that way now though. It's quite astonishing that all parties seem to wish to join them.
I have Leeds NW @ 10-1
Any other value out there?
5/ The upshot is that the highly engaged people in low turnout demographics are massively overrepresented.
The more wealthier you are the more engaged you are. The more engaged you are, the more likely you are to do polls, therefore skewing the results from your peer group.
£80k wanting to back at 1.21.
Response to JackW?!
I'm thinking of having it put on t-shirts and would suggest the conference Glee Club may want to pen a song around the theme for this year.
A psephologist, a psephologist
John Curtice is a psephologist,
And so is David Firth.
So far, the two outcomes in terms of national VI have been very close. Let's see how far from Tory 42% / Lab 38% that this evening's VI poll turns out to be?
It remains my view that YouGov's weakness is that its self-selected panel isn't fully representative and that, whatever it may say, it over-weights younger voters.